Upload
milt
View
29
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Census 2000: Growing Together or Apart? California’s Regions. Hans Johnson Public Policy Institute of California [email protected]. Outline. The California Context Regional Population Trends Characteristics of the Population. California Population 1900-2000 (in thousands). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
1 PPIC PPIC
Census 2000: Growing Together or Apart? Census 2000: Growing Together or Apart?
California’s RegionsCalifornia’s Regions
Hans JohnsonHans JohnsonPublic Policy Institute of CaliforniaPublic Policy Institute of California
[email protected]@ppic.org
2 PPIC PPIC
OutlineOutline
The California ContextThe California Context
Regional Population TrendsRegional Population Trends
Characteristics of the PopulationCharacteristics of the Population
3 PPIC PPIC
California Population 1900-2000California Population 1900-2000(in thousands)(in thousands)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Source: US Census Bureau, California Department of Finance
4 PPIC PPIC
Comparisons of Population ChangeComparisons of Population Change1950=1001950=100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
United States
5 PPIC PPIC
Comparisons of Population ChangeComparisons of Population Change1950=1001950=100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
Mexico
United States
6 PPIC PPIC
Comparisons of Population ChangeComparisons of Population Change1950=1001950=100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
MexicoCaliforniaUnited States
7 PPIC PPIC
California Population by Race/EthnicityCalifornia Population by Race/Ethnicity1970-20001970-2000
0%
10%
20%30%
40%
50%
60%
70%80%
90%
100%
1970 1980 1990 2000
White Hispanic Asian/Other African American Mulitracial
Source: United States Census Bureau
8 PPIC PPIC
Percent Foreign Born 1900-2000Percent Foreign Born 1900-2000
0
5
10
15
20
25
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
CaliforniaUnited States
9 PPIC PPIC
Latin America is the Latin America is the Leading Source of ImmigrantsLeading Source of Immigrants
Latin America 4,697,000 (55%)Asia 2,915,000 (34%)Europe 655,000 ( 8%)Northern America 129,000 Africa 107,000 Oceania 68,000
Source: 2000 Census Supplemental Survey
10 PPIC PPIC
Immigrants Come to California Immigrants Come to California from Dozens of Countriesfrom Dozens of Countries
MEXICO PHILIPPINES VIETNAM EL SALVADOR CHINA INDIA GUATEMALA TAIWAN CANADA KOREA IRAN JAPAN GERMANY HONG KONG ENGLAND SOUTH KOREA PAKISTAN NICARAGUA HONDURAS THAILAND LAOS ARMENIA RUSSIA CAMBODIA FRANCE PERU UKRAINE BRAZIL U.K. AUSTRALIA ARGENTINA MYANMAR CUBA IRAQ ITALY ROMANIA COLOMBIA INDONESIA PORTUGAL EGYPT TURKEY LEBANON ISRAEL NIGERIA POLAND GREECE SCOTLAND SOUTH AFRICA NETHERLANDS COSTA RICA IRELAND JAMAICA BOSNIA & H. SPAIN BOLIVIA ETHIOPIA PANAMA BELIZE SWEDEN SYRIA ECUADOR CZECH REP. HUNGARY BELARUS CHILE JORDAN FIJI AFGHANISTAN
Source: 2000 Census Supplementary Survey
11 PPIC PPIC
Source of Growth has ChangedSource of Growth has ChangedAnnual Population Change 1950-2000Annual Population Change 1950-2000 (in thousands)(in thousands)
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
NET MIGRATIONNATURAL INCREASE
12 PPIC PPIC
Net Migration to CaliforniaNet Migration to California1970-1999 1970-1999 (in thousands)(in thousands)
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
InternationalDomestic
Source: California Department of Finance, unofficial estimates to 1980; Public Policy Institute of California 1980-1993; DOF 1993-1999 with CB for international migration
13 PPIC PPIC
Domestic Migration is Determined by Domestic Migration is Determined by Economic ConditionsEconomic Conditions
Unemployment Rate Differences and Net Domestic Migration Follow the Same Pattern
(3.0)
(2.5)
(2.0)
(1.5)
(1.0)
(0.5)
-
0.5
1.0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
U.S
. min
us C
alifo
rnia
une
mpl
oym
ent r
ates
(600)
(500)
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
-
100
200
Net
dom
estic
mig
ratio
n (th
ousa
nds)
Unemployment rate in rest ofU.S. less Californiaunemployment rate (left scale)Net domestic migration (inthousands, right scale)
14 PPIC PPIC
Projections for California Diverge WidelyProjections for California Diverge Widely
25,000
Total population projections for California
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
DOF 98CB PreferredCB AlternativeBEAUCLACCSCE MediumCCSCE HighCCSCE LowPopulation
(000)
15 PPIC PPIC
OutlineOutline
The California ContextThe California Context
Regional Population TrendsRegional Population Trends
Characteristics of the PopulationCharacteristics of the Population
16 PPIC PPIC
Defining California Regions:Geographic Building Blocks
17 PPIC PPIC
1981
1983 2003?
Changing Regional Definitions: The Bay Area
18 PPIC PPIC
Defining California’s Regions:
California in Two
Coastal California
Inland California
Southern California
Central and NorthernCalifornia
19 PPIC PPIC
Bay Area
CentralCoast
South CoastSan Diego
Far North
Sacramento Metro
Inland Empire
San Joaquin Valley
Sierras
Regional Definitions: California Divided by NineRegional Definitions: California Divided by Nine
20 PPIC PPIC
The View from San FranciscoThe View from San Francisco
The Citythe hinterlands
21 PPIC PPIC
California’s Regions if States:California’s Regions if States:Area and PopulationArea and PopulationArea and Population of California’s Regions
Land area 2000 population
Population per square
mile
Area equivalent Population equivalent
South Coast 6,696 13,118,824 1,959 Hawaii Illinois Bay Area 6,923 6,783,760 980 New Jersey Virginia San Joaquin Valley 27,276 3,302,792 121 South Carolina Oregon Inland Empire 27,260 3,254,821 119 West Virginia Connecticut San Diego 8,375 2,956,194 353 Massachussetts Iowa Sacramento Metro 5,094 1,796,857 353 Connecticut New Mexico Central Coast 11,198 1,356,626 121
Maryland and Delaware Idaho
Far North 43,853 1,122,483 26 Pennsylvania Hawaii Sierras 19,286 179,291 9
Vermont and New Hamphsire Guam
22 PPIC PPIC
Regional Population Distribution:Regional Population Distribution:North and South Maintaining SharesNorth and South Maintaining Shares
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Northern andCentral CaliforniaSouthernCalifornia
23 PPIC PPIC
Regional Population Distribution:Regional Population Distribution:Inland Areas Increasing ShareInland Areas Increasing Share
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Inland CaliforniaCoastal California
24 PPIC PPIC
Relatively Slow Growth in Coastal RegionsRelatively Slow Growth in Coastal RegionsPercent Change by DecadePercent Change by Decade
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
State
Far North
Bay Area
Centra
l Coas
t
South Coas
t
San D
iego
1980-19901990-2000
25 PPIC PPIC
Relatively Fast Growth in Inland RegionsRelatively Fast Growth in Inland RegionsPercent Change by DecadePercent Change by Decade
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
State
Sierras
Sacram
ento M
etro
San Jo
aquin Vall
ey
Inlan
d Empire
1980-19901990-2000
66%
26 PPIC PPIC
Source of Population Growth in the 1990s:Source of Population Growth in the 1990s:Coastal RegionsCoastal Regions
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
State FarNorth
BayArea
CentralCoast
SouthCoast
SanDiego
Rat
e pe
r tho
usan
d re
side
nts
Natural Increase Net international migration Net domestic migration
27 PPIC PPIC
Source of Population Growth in the 1990s:Source of Population Growth in the 1990s:Inland RegionsInland Regions
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
State
Sierras
Sacram
ento M
etro
San Jo
aquin Vall
ey
Inland Empire
Rat
e pe
r tho
usan
d re
side
nts
Natural Increase Net international migration Net domestic migration
28 PPIC PPIC
Jobs and Population Growth: Jobs and Population Growth: Percent Change 1990-2000Percent Change 1990-2000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Inland Empire
Sacram
ento M
etro
San D
iego
San Jo
aquin Vall
ey
Bay Area
Far North
Centra
l Coa
st
Sierras
South C
oast
JobsPopulation
29 PPIC PPIC
Jobs:Population ImbalanceJobs:Population ImbalanceNew Jobs per 1,000 New Residents, 1990-2000New Jobs per 1,000 New Residents, 1990-2000
0100200300400500600700800
South C
oast
Sierras
San Jo
aquin Vall
ey
Inland Empire
Far North
Central
Coast
Sacram
ento M
etro
San D
iego
Bay Area
State
30 PPIC PPIC
Housing and Population GrowthHousing and Population GrowthPercent Change in Housing Units and Population, 1990-2000Percent Change in Housing Units and Population, 1990-2000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Inland Empire
Sacram
ento M
etro
San Jo
aquin Vall
ey
Sierras
San D
iego
Bay Area
Central
Coast
Far North
South C
oast
Housing UnitsPopulation
31 PPIC PPIC
Accommodating Population Growth:Accommodating Population Growth:Percent of Population Growth Accommodated by Existing Housing Units, Percent of Population Growth Accommodated by Existing Housing Units,
1990-20001990-2000
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
South C
oast
Bay Area
Inland Empire
Central
Coast
San D
iego
San Jo
aquin Vall
ey
Sacram
ento M
etro
Sierras
Far North
State
32 PPIC PPIC
OutlineOutline
The California ContextThe California Context
Regional Population TrendsRegional Population Trends
Characteristics of the PopulationCharacteristics of the Population
33 PPIC PPIC
34 PPIC PPIC
Percent Foreign Born, 2000Percent Foreign Born, 2000
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%
Sierras
Far North
Sacram
ento M
etro
Inland Empire
San Jo
aquin Vall
ey
Centra
l Coa
st
San D
iego
Bay A
rea
South C
oast
State
35 PPIC PPIC
Poverty Rate by County, 1999
Very High (20+)High (15-19.9)Moderate (10-14.9)Low (<10)
36 PPIC PPIC
Per Capita Income RankPer Capita Income Rankof California Metropolitan Areasof California Metropolitan Areas
San Francisco 1San Jose 4Oakland 18Orange County 25Santa Cruz-Watsonville 30
Santa Rosa 32Ventura 58
Santa Barbara-Santa Maria 59Salinas 68San Diego 78Sacramento 92Los Angeles-Long Beach 100Vallejo-Fairfield-Napa 122
Yolo (Davis-Woodland) 124San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles 147
Redding 253Riverside-San Bernardino 272
Modesto 280Chico-Paradise 284Stockton-Lodi 285Fresno 298Bakersfield 304Yuba City 305
Visalia-Tulare-Porterville 308Merced 312
37 PPIC PPIC
Growing Apart:Growing Apart:Regional Per Capita Income Relative to StateRegional Per Capita Income Relative to State (100 = State PCI)(100 = State PCI)
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
Bay Area
South Coast
Central Coast
San Diego
Sacramento Metro
Sierras
Far North
Inland Empire
San Joaquin Valley
38 PPIC PPIC