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Centaurus Metals PCF SECURITIES RESEARCH Centaurus Metals Page | 1 SPECULATIVE BUY 4 May 2012 Company Strengths Development stage iron ore projects in the region of Brazil’s iron ore quadrangle Atlas Iron as a strategic shareholder at 19.8% Production in 2014 from Jambreiro project Multiple iron ore projects strong growth platform Economics underpinned by selling premium high grade product to domestic customers Potential customers receptive to long term consistent supply of low impurity product Extensive experience with in-country team Resources Development Overview Successful PFS on Jambreiro 2Mtpa production, A$132m capex, A$20/t opex and NPV A$289m (post tax) Jambreiro BFS due Q3 2012 Potential to extend Jambreiro mine life to 16 years Candonga discovery near Jambreiro has potential to add resource to project Second major project advancing with Serra da Lontra - export potential Our Assessment Centaurus Metals is developing iron ore projects with a strategy to supply domestic steel mills within Brazil with high quality sinter feed suitable for blending. Confirmation of project bankability is expected to occur in Q3 2012, leaving the main risk to project timelines being project execution. PCF Securities rates CTM as a Speculative Buy with a risked valuation of 1.80/sh and an initial price target of 1.44/sh. Code: Share price (as at 4/5/12): Shares on issue(m): Cash (m): Market cap (m): EV (m): CTM.AX $0.64 133.5 $15.9 $85.4 $69.5 Valuation: Price Target (12 months): Discount from Price Target: $1.80 $1.44 125% Directors: Didier Murcia Darren Gordon Peter Freund Richard Hill Mark Hancock Keith McKay Geoffrey James Chairman Managing Director Exec. Director Non-Exec. Director Non-Exec. Director Non-Exec. Director CFO & Company Sec. Substantial Holders: Atlas Iron Lujeta Pty Ltd Darren Gordon Bridge Lane Didier Murcia 19.8% 6.7% 5.1% 4.2% 1.2% Projects (Brazil): Jambreiro Serra da Lontra Passabem Itambe Price Graph Last 12 months Analyst: Travis Baroni +618 9327 3888 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 $0.00 $0.10 $0.20 $0.30 $0.40 $0.50 $0.60 $0.70 $0.80 $0.90 $1.00 05/11 08/11 11/11 02/12 Volume (millions) Price

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Page 1: Centaurus Metals...2012/05/04  · Centaurus Metals is developing iron ore projects with a strategy to supply domestic steel mills within Brazil with high quality sinter feed suitable

Centaurus Metals

PCF SECURITIES RESEARCH Centaurus Metals P a g e | 1

SPECULATIVE BUY

4 May 2012 Company Strengths

Development stage iron ore projects in the region of Brazil’s iron ore quadrangle

Atlas Iron as a strategic shareholder at 19.8%

Production in 2014 from Jambreiro project

Multiple iron ore projects – strong growth platform

Economics underpinned by selling premium high grade product to domestic customers

Potential customers receptive to long term consistent supply of low impurity product

Extensive experience with in-country team Resources Development Overview

Successful PFS on Jambreiro

2Mtpa production, A$132m capex, A$20/t opex and NPV A$289m (post tax)

Jambreiro BFS due Q3 2012

Potential to extend Jambreiro mine life to 16 years

Candonga discovery near Jambreiro has potential to add resource to project

Second major project advancing with Serra da Lontra - export potential

Our Assessment Centaurus Metals is developing iron ore projects with a strategy to supply domestic steel mills within Brazil with high quality sinter feed suitable for blending. Confirmation of project bankability is expected to occur in Q3 2012, leaving the main risk to project timelines being project execution. PCF Securities rates CTM as a Speculative Buy with a risked valuation of 1.80/sh and an initial price target of 1.44/sh.

Code:

Share price (as at 4/5/12):

Shares on issue(m):

Cash (m):

Market cap (m):

EV (m):

CTM.AX

$0.64

133.5

$15.9

$85.4

$69.5

Valuation:

Price Target (12 months):

Discount from Price Target:

$1.80

$1.44

125%

Directors:

Didier Murcia

Darren Gordon

Peter Freund

Richard Hill

Mark Hancock

Keith McKay

Geoffrey James

Chairman

Managing Director

Exec. Director

Non-Exec. Director

Non-Exec. Director

Non-Exec. Director

CFO & Company Sec.

Substantial Holders:

Atlas Iron

Lujeta Pty Ltd

Darren Gordon

Bridge Lane

Didier Murcia

19.8%

6.7%

5.1%

4.2%

1.2%

Projects (Brazil):

Jambreiro

Serra da Lontra

Passabem

Itambe

Price Graph – Last 12 months

Analyst: Travis Baroni +618 9327 3888

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

$0.70

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

05/11 08/11 11/11 02/12

Vo

lum

e (

mill

ion

s)

Pri

ce

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PCF SECURITIES RESEARCH Centaurus Metals P a g e | 2

Company Overview

Centaurus Metals is an ASX listed iron ore explorer/developer with projects in Brazil. The company’s main projects are in the Minas Gerais and Bahia states in the South East of Brazil.

The company has 6 iron ore projects in the Minas Gerais region, and a recently acquired project in the Southern region of Bahia state, ~500km North East of the Minas Gerais projects. The company has 100% interests, or agreements to acquire 100% interests in its projects: Jambreiro, Serra de Lontra, Itambe, Passabem, Candonga, and Guanhaes. The company also has a Manganese project.

Map of South East Brazil showing the locations of Centaurus’ projects Source:CTM

Business Strategy

The company’s strategy is to develop iron ore projects in a region known for iron ore production and where there is a local captive customer base of steel mills. This is expected to alleviate much of the large export infrastructure requirements seen in other iron ore producing regions. Several steel mills are located in the vicinity of large cities Ipatinga and Joao Monlevade. Mills in the region are owned by Usiminas, Arcelor Mittal, CSN and Gerdau. The company’s corporate objective in the domestic market is to produce high quality sinter fines at 2Mtpa rate grading >65% Fe by 2014, feeding the local mills. The majority of this production is likely to come from CTM’s Jambreiro project.

Brazil – A Major Iron Ore and Steel Producer

The last decade has seen a doubling of Brazilian iron ore exported on the seaborne market in response to the growing Chinese demand, with China now consuming over half the sea borne iron ore. The supply/demand balance in the seaborne market, combined with the high cost marginal iron ore producers in China is effectively setting a floor price to the seaborne market, which due to capacity constraints is unlikely to be displaced in the medium term. This is providing a price incentive to export markets, such as Brazil, with the result of displacing domestic iron ore production growth into the seaborne market and presents an opportunity to supply the domestic steel industry with high quality product. Over the last decade Brazilian steel production has grown from ~29Mt to ~35Mt such that Brazil was the 9

th largest producer

of steel in 2011. Out of 64 counties it accounted for 2.3% of the world’s steel capacity, with the majority coming from the mills in the Minas Gerais region. This region of Brazil also accounts for nearly 70% of the total ~380Mtpa Brazilian iron ore production. Vale alone produces ~195Mtpa out of its Southern Region, which largely encapsulates its production from Minas Gerais state. Developing a domestic iron ore business in this region known for iron ore and steel production will enable the company to achieve early production and cash flow by developing projects around existing infrastructure. The product is expected to grade

Centaurus Metals is an iron ore development

company focused on Brazilian domestic iron ore production

Projects are located in the SE region of Brazil

renowned for its iron ore and steel industries

Leverage of existing

infrastructure with domestic customers

initially

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PCF SECURITIES RESEARCH Centaurus Metals P a g e | 3

>65%Fe and be in demand due to its high Fe and low impurity content. The company plans to leverage off this business to develop additional iron ore production capable of export, utilising existing port infrastructure.

Location of Centaurus projects within the Minas Gerais region Source:CTM

Geology – Itabirite Iron Ores

The mineralisation being targeted by CTM is in the Northern margin of the iron ore quadrangle in Brazil, which is situated on the Southern margin of the Sao Francisco craton. Itabirites are metamorphosed and oxidised sediments with alternating iron-rich layers, typically hematite and silica. Some Itabirite, however contain dominantly dolomite or amphiboles instead of silica rich bands. In these ores the iron bearing mineral is often goethite. The grade of Itabirite varies from ~25%-40% Fe. Itabirites also vary in their hardness due to the degree of hydrothermal alteration, or weathering experienced, causing the leaching out of the silica layers. Hardness varies from loose/weak (friable) material that is free digging, through to resistant, hard rock (compact). These ores require upgrading prior to sale, which usually involves a crush-grind circuit, followed by magnetic separation. Some flow sheets used in Brazil include a floatation circuit as well. Following beneficiation, the product is of a very high grade; typically 65-68% Fe, 2-3% SiO2, 1% Al2O3 and 0.03% P, making it ideal for blending with high Silica/Alumina iron ores. The iron ore concentrate usually contains a high proportion of fines (>60%) with material requiring subsequent sintering, or pelletising.

Jambreiro

The Jambreiro project is CTM’s most advanced project, located 130km North from the city Ipatinga in central Minas Gerais state. The tenement covers 1014km

2, has a JORC resource of

116Mt @ 28. 8% Fe and a completed PFS, with a BFS, due in Q3 2012.

The Jambreiro project was acquired in June 2010 from Cenibra, a large Brazilian paper and pulp producer. The tenement area was already being used in forestry with good road access for logging trucks operating in the tenement area.

Jambreiro Resource

Mineralisation has been identified over 4 prospects covering an area of 2km by 4 km. This mineralisation constitutes the current resource. The 4 prospects are: Galo, Tigre, Coelho and Cruziero

Centaurus’ projects are in a region producing

~270Mtpa of iron ore

Itabirites are a significant source of the global ore supply

Processing is required,

producing a high quality product for pellet or sinter feed

Jambreiro is CTM’s flagship project –

116Mt @ 28.8%Fe

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PCF SECURITIES RESEARCH Centaurus Metals P a g e | 4

The current resource was published in November 2011, along with the successful PFS results. This resource includes both a friable (67Mt) and compact (49.5Mt) resource. A maiden reserve also published at the same time identified a Proven and Probable reserve of 49Mt @ 28.2% Fe. The PFS only considered processing 49Mt of ore from within the friable zone. Mining studies conducted on the compact ore established the possibility of mining and processing the compact ore to extend mine life with further drilling success and studies.

Jambreiro resource and reserve statement Source:CTM

The key outcomes of the PFS were a 2Mtpa production rate for 8.5 years, with capex of A$132m including contingency. The low strip ratio, combined with the free digging nature of the friable ore, contributes to a cash cost (including mining, processing and admin, excluding royalties and D&A) of A$19.9/t LOM.

Resource Development

Recent additional drilling has confirmed the mineralisation continuity, with a resource upgrade expected in May 2012. The upgrade is expected to largely increase the confidence of the resource into higher categories, rather than significantly increase the overall resource size. The resource currently has 62% in Measured and Indicated categories. Infill drilling has recently been conducted to cover the resource to be mined in the payback period of the operations for bankability purposes. Sampling for metallurgical testing has also been conducted based on expected mine plans on a quarter by quarter basis over the first 4 years of the project. Resource will initially be mined from the central Tigre and Cruzeiro pits.

Mine, waste and plant layout (left) and Magnetic image (right) with drill results Source:CTM

Friable free digging ore is located in the upper 60-80m of the ore body, with a compact type ore resource located outside the pit shell not considered within the PFS.

BFS is due Q3 2012

67Mt of friable ore has been defined

Resource upgrade

expected in May 2012

Recent drilling

expected to support bankability

BFS will only consider the free digging ore

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PCF SECURITIES RESEARCH Centaurus Metals P a g e | 5

Mine Life Extension

The PFS recognised 67.5Mt of the resource remains outside the current pit reserve considered for the initial 8.5 years. A larger conceptual pit, using the same mining economic parameters used for the study on the ore reserve, has been defined considering the whole resource. This extended pit includes 93.7Mt of the total current resource (80.4% of the 116.5Mt) and has a LOM strip ratio 1.2:1, compared with 0.94:1 for the first 8.5 years. 32.2Mt of product would be produced for a mine life of 16.1 years from this pit.

Cross sections through the Tigre prospect showing the 8.5 year pit shell Source:CTM

Ore Processing

The beneficiation process includes a crushing, screening and milling circuit to liberate the hematite from the gangue, followed by 3 stages of magnetic separation, starting with a LIMS stage to scalp the minor amount of magnetite that is present to product, prior to 2 stages of WHIMS to recovery the hematite.

Mining of compact ore

could significantly increase mine life

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PCF SECURITIES RESEARCH Centaurus Metals P a g e | 6

Simplified schematic of the proposed flow sheet. Source:CTM

Current Project Status

Geotechnical drilling is occurring as of May 2012, along with waste and water management studies. CTM is using a Brazilian engineering group (WALM), that has EPCM experience at several iron ore mines in the this region of Brazil. Contecmina Consultoria (an affiliate of CNEC Worley Parsons) are conducting the studies on the process flow sheet and design, with BNA Consultora e Sistemas (BNA) conducting resource and reserve estimation.

Infill drilling at the Tigre and Cruzeiro projects continues to support the BFS, with the results supporting the consistency of the mineralisation with regards to both continuity and quality. A new resource estimate is expected in late May 2012.

Approximately 100t of ore is now being processed in pilot plant studies to establish the concentrator flow sheet details and design. Initial pilot plant test work has shown a product grading 65.6%Fe, 2.8% SiO2, 0.7% Al2O3 and 0.02%P can be achieved with mass recoveries of 38.3% and metal recoveries of 83.7%. A large representative amount of pilot plant product will be produced concurrently for customer evaluation and test work on sintering behaviour. Feedback from potential customers on the prospect of a consistent, long term supply of high grade product has been positive.

Jambreiro Exploration & Candonga Prospect

Trenching at the Candonga prospect, 40km South of Jambreiro, returned mineralisation over 1.6km of strike confirming mineralisation, which provides follow up drill targets and could add potential feed for the Jambreiro project if successful in defining a resource. Higher in-situ grade compared to Jambreiro mineralisation has been observed, with six trenches dug to date, delivering results such as 46.6% Fe, in trench CDG-TR-11-001, and up to 57.6% Fe in trench CDG-TR-11-002. Limited drilling to date has returned intercepts such as:

85.6m @ 40.0%Fe in CDG-DD-10-001

53m @ 45.6%Fe in CDG-DD-10-003

The Candonga mineralisation is friable at surface. These grades are considerably higher than Jambreiro and could provide a valuable feed stock.

Jambreiro Approvals & Timelines

The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) was lodged with SUPRAM in March 2012 for a 3Mtpa operation. A granted right to operate a mine follows a 3 stage process involving the issue of an interim preliminary license (LP), following an assessment to confirm the project is environmentally sound. This approval allows for the application of an installation licence (LI), which is issued once the design of the environmental control systems are approved, allowing construction to commence. The company is anticipating the LI to be received Q2 2013, with

Beneficiating the ore involves conventional

comminution and wet magnetic separation to

produce >66%Fe product

Potential customers

positive to a consistent high grade supply

BFS activities

progressing towards Q3 2012 completion

Candonga prospect could provide high

grade Itabirite feed to Jambreiro

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PCF SECURITIES RESEARCH Centaurus Metals P a g e | 7

construction to commence at the LI issuance. Following construction completion, an operating licence (LO) is issued after a site visit from authorities to determine the project was built as per the design, allowing production to commence late 2013.

Jambreiro project time lines with key project and approval milestones Source:CTM

Serra da Lontra – Export Strategy

The Serra da Lontra Project was added by the company in June 2011. CTM currently has 12 granted exploration licences as part of the project. The project is located in Bahia state, ~500km’s North East of Minas Gerais. The project is located within trucking distance, ~120km West of along sealed roads to the port of Ilheus. The port of Ilheus, which currently bulk exports wood, soya beans and cocoa beans at ~ 170kt in total in 2011, is located in city of the same name with population ~250,000 people. The company is in discussions with the state government and Codeba, the port operator regarding port access. This project will rely on existing rail and road infrastructure.

Targeting iron ore for an export market, gives the opportunity to realise the spot price for iron ore which is at a significant premium to the prices realised within the domestic Brazilian iron ore market.

The project, at this stage, consists of Fittipaldi and Senna prospects, represented by magnetic highs ~1.5-2km long by 300-500m wide.

The company as of end Q1 CY 2012 has drilled 3,990m into Serra da Lontra out of a planned 7,500m maiden program. These initial drill results have returned grades of 30%-40% Fe, with widths of 15-35 metres. Results included:

34m @ 36.6% Fe from surface in SDL-RC-12-001

21m @ 33.9% Fe from surface in SDL-RC-12-005

25m @ 32.0% Fe from 61m in SDL-RC-12-006

32m @ 34.2% Fe from surface in SDL-RC-12-002

The drill program is planned to define a maiden resource estimate for the project, targeted for July 2012.

The first stage of

approvals submitted in Q1 2012

Production planned Q4 2013

Centaurus is evaluating Serra da Lontra - an

export oriented iron ore mine in the state of Bahia

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PCF SECURITIES RESEARCH Centaurus Metals P a g e | 8

Magnetic image of the Serra da Lontra project with initial drill results Source: CTM

Based on the drilling to date, the company has stated an exploration target of 30-50Mt at 30-40%Fe. This target only includes siliceous Itabirite. Some of the mineralisation observed has been noted to be amphibolitic Itabirite, which typically contains goethite as the main iron bearing mineral and requires alternate processing. The drilling at Serra da Lontra is nearing completion as of late April 2012.

Future Growth Projects

Passabem

Passabem is located near the city of Itabira, ~150 km North East of Belo Horizonte. The company announced a resource of 39Mt at 31.0%Fe at Passabem in August 2010. The ore is defined as a compact ore. The ore body is tabular shaped, dipping 40-70

o to the West, with an

average width of 12m.

Passabem resource statement Source:CTM

Beneficiation test work on the ore showed that a two-stage WHIMS circuit could produce a 67.4%Fe product. Impurities in the test product were low, with SiO2 ~3%, Al2O3~0.4% and P of 0.01%. Mass recoveries range from 30-50% depending on the grade of the ore, which ranges from 25% to 36%. Metal recovery is 80-90%. The company is in a position to conduct a scoping study on this project to assess conceptual pit designs, complete infill drilling to move resource into higher confidence categories and assess economics at a high level. The company state some of this work will occur in 2012, with the infill drilling required for a development decision. Jambreiro and Serra da Lontra are the priority projects at this stage.

Serra da Lontra exploration target of 30-50Mt

Serra da Lontra maiden resource targeted for July 2012

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PCF SECURITIES RESEARCH Centaurus Metals P a g e | 9

Itambe

The Itambe project covers a tenement area of 186km2, with the identified mineralisation in an

area of 16km2. The project has a JORC Inferred resource of 10Mt @ 36.6%Fe.

Itambe resource statement Source:CTM

The ore is a combination of friable Itabirite with some weathered scree material up to 25m thick. Approximately half (4.7Mt) of the resource is in the Indicated category. Beneficiation test work has shown the ore can be upgraded to 67% Fe, with mass recoveries of 67% and metal recovery of 83%.

Manganese - Ponte de Pedra

The Ponte de Pedra Manganese project is located ~150km North of Belo Horizonte. The project area has indications of previous Manganese workings on lateritic enriched locations. The prospect has both supergene enrichment and some primary Manganese mineralisation observed.

Valuation

To establish a valuation for CTM, PCF Securities has assessed the Jambreiro PFS data and conducted a DCF valuation on the project, using PFS inputs and assessing the sensitivities of those variables to the value of the project. The other projects owned by CTM with stated resources have been valued according to market metric peer comparisons, based on contained Fe metal. The DCF assessment of Jambreiro considers the extended mine life potential given the PFS only considered the mining processing of the stated reserves of friable ore in its pit optimisation and ore processing. This only represents 49Mt out of an 116.5Mt total resource as currently defined. Including the compact is done with the expectation that an increase to the proportion of the total resource to Measured category along with conversion from Measured Resource to Reserve through metallurgical assessment occurs. The valuation has included mining 75% of the total current resource at similar rates to the PFS assumptions. In modelling the processing of compact ore, consideration has been given to the higher strip ratio anticipated from years 9 to 16, with additional allowances in the opex for mining and processing. Additional capex of A$30m has been included in year 8 to account for expected capex requirements in process plant upgrades to account for processing the compact ore. It is worth noting that several operations are currently treating compact ore, such as US Steel’s Minntac mine, or MMX’s Serra Azul, which is ~200km SW of Jambreiro and is currently being upgraded to produce 24Mtpa, of iron ore with ~70% of the ore being compact in nature.

Centaurus has several promising projects in early stage

development

Manganese prospect

has good exploration potential

The valuation includes

mining and processing of compact ore, with

allowances for increased capital and operational costs

Compact ore is mined

at several locations worldwide

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PCF SECURITIES RESEARCH Centaurus Metals P a g e | 10

DCF Valuation

The key process inputs used in the DCF of the Jambreiro project are shown in the table below:

Operating Parameter

Unit Value

Product Produced - Iron ore concentrate 66% Fe

Production Start Y 2014

LOM Y 8.5 with 8 year extension

Production rate Mtpa Min 0.99, Max 2.02, LOM 1.94 (2 for 8.5 years)

Strip ratio 0.94:1 (1st

8 years) 1.2:1 (LOM)

Capex A$(m) 132 (PFS) + 30 in year 8 to process compact ore

Plant mass recovery % 38 (LOM)

Mining costs A$/t product 9.1 (1st

8 years) 10.3 (LOM)

Total opex A$/t product Min 17.8, Max 26.9, LOM 22.8 (20 for 8.5 years)

Discount rate % 8

Tax Rate % 34

PCF Securities arrives at a post-tax NPV of Jambreiro of A$396m. This includes A$301m for the initial 8.5 year mine, processing only friable ore and an additional A$95m for the extension of mine through the mining and processing of the compact ore. Iron ore pricing is assumed to be at a discount to the Platts 66% IO fines CFR China index at A$75/t. Assuming a nominal proportion of debt funding of $90m, with the remainder funded with equity at $0.60/sh, the Jambreiro project is valued at $1.99/sh. Including market metric valuations for the other projects, and discounting Jambreiro for risks associated with execution, PCF values CTM at $1.80/sh.

Price Risks

While iron ore is relatively abundant, the challenges involved to bring new capacity into production are substantial. The main challenges to installing new capacity currently observed in the industry are:

Logistics and associated infrastructure bottlenecks

Capex cost escalation

Capex required to supply infrastructure

Environmental regulations

Political stability

Centaurus’ strategy directly addresses several of these issues, by operating in a mining friendly jurisdiction, with existing iron ore mines surrounding their proposed operations, with defined environmental approvals processes.

A risked valuation for Centaurus of $1.80/sh at a A$73/t iron ore

price

Project Value x Nav Risked Value $/sh (risked)

Value of Jambreiro (A$m) 301$ 80% 241$ 1.21$

Jambreiro Extension (A$m) 95$ 70% 67$ 0.33$

Passabem 16$ 100% 16$ 0.08$

Itambe 5$ 100% 5$ 0.02$

Serra da Lontra 27$ 50% 14$ 0.07$

Options 7$ 100% 7$ 0.04$

Corporate 10-$ 100% 10-$ 0.05-$

Cash 20$ 100% 20$ 0.10$

Valuation (/sh) 462$ 359$ 1.80$

Valuation Summary

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PCF SECURITIES RESEARCH Centaurus Metals P a g e | 11

Developing a domestic customer base alleviates much of the related infrastructure requirements and using the cash flow from this operation to potentially fund an export production base reduces potential future equity raising requirements.

Domestic iron ore pricing has at this stage some uncertainty, which we expect will be clarified through the assessments to be conducted on the pilot plant product and marketing studies. PCF understands that the domestic markets exist and A$75 is not unreasonable and possibly conservative.

The two largest risks for the company are the timing of the licence approvals, and the project executing on construction and commissioning.

Price Drivers

Maiden resource at Serra da Lontra

Securing funding for Jambreiro

Securing installation license for Jambreiro to allow construction to proceed

Significant exploration results from Serra da Lontra

Summary

Centaurus Metals is rapidly progressing it Jambreiro project through BFS. It has several iron ore opportunities within Brazil that provide the potential for the company to establish operating mines. The company has identified a business model supplying iron ore to the domestic steel industry, alleviating much of the infrastructure issues faced by developing a bulk commodity project. PCF Securities has a risked value for the company at 1.80/sh, which represents a substantial discount to the current price. Given the company is still completing the BFS on Jambreiro, PCF rate Centaurus Metals as a Speculative Buy, with an initial price target of 1.44/sh.

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PCF SECURITIES RESEARCH Centaurus Metals P a g e | 12

Financial Model Summary

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F

0 4 2 2 75 Company

-6 -17 -9 -10 -27 Code CTM.AX

-6 -13 -7 -8 48 Share Price 4/05/2012 0.64$

0 0 0 0 -4 Valuation (unrisked) 2.31$ Rating Speculative Buy

-6 -14 -7 -8 43 Valuation (risked) 1.80$

0 1 0 0 -22 Under Value Margin 261%

-6 -13 -7 -8 21 Shares Issued (m) 133.5

-6 -13 -7 -8 14 Metrics Summary 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F

EPS c 0.09- 0.05- 0.06- 0.10

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F PER x n/a n/a n/a 6.1

5 10 19 6 9 7.0 Cash flow/ Sh $/Sh -0.07 -0.05 -0.06 0.22

1 2 0 0 6 EV/EBIT x -6 -9.49 -21.43 0.00

0 0 0 0 1 ROE % -37% -13% -10% 13%

6 12 19 6 16 EBIT Margin % -368% -350% -400% 58%

Gearing (Nd/Nd+Eq) % n/a n/a 51% 35%

28 30 30 162 158 Production Assumptions

0 0 8 10 11 Iron Ore Price A$/t 75 75 75 75

28 30 38 172 169 Ave Cash Cost A$/t n/a n/a 0 24

Capex A$ (m) 0 0 132 1

34 42 57 178 185

1 4 1 1 2 0

0 0 0 92 70

4 4 1 1 1

5 8 2 94 73

29 34 55 84 112

29 34 55 84 112

0 0 0 0 1

29 34 55 84 111

0 0 0 0 1

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F

-6 -13 -7 -8 14

0 1 0 0 -22

0 0 0 0 -4

0 0 0 -7

-2 -3 0 0 -4 12 month trading range A$0.47 - A$0.75

-4 -9 -7 -8 29 12 month return -10%

0 -1 0 -132 1

0 -1 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 -4 -5 -5

-1 -2 -4 -137 -4

0 0 0 0 0

0 18 20 40 0

0 0 0 92 -22

0 0 0 0 0

0 18 20 132 -22

-5 7 9 -13 3

cash at start of year 11 6 13 22 9

Other

Financing Cashflow

Total Cash Flow for period

Other

Investing Cashflow

Dividends Paid

Equity Raised

Borrowings (Repayments)

Asset Sales

Shareholder Equity

Cash flow Statement

Net Profit

Net Interest

Depreciation and Amortisation

Tax

Working Cap Adjustments

Operating Cashflow

Capex

Acquisitions & Investments

Other

Total Non-Current Assets

Total Assets

Payables

Interest Bearing Liabilities

Other Liabilities

Total Liabilities

Net Assets

Ordinary Equity

other

EBIT

Interest

PBT

NPAT

Balance Sheet

Cash

Trade & Receivables

Other current Assets

Total Current Assets

Property,Plant & Equip. + Expl.

Depreciation & Amortisation

Profit and Loss Statement

Revenue Centaurus Metals

Operating Expenses & Hedge

EBITDA

Centaurus is a developer of iron ore projects in the iron ore quandrangle of Brazil. It is conducting the DFS on its Jambreiro project, a 2mtpa iron ore mine due to commence production is late 2014. It also owns the Serra da Lontra project in Bahia state, which is an export project.

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0.30

0.40

0.50

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ice

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Page 13: Centaurus Metals...2012/05/04  · Centaurus Metals is developing iron ore projects with a strategy to supply domestic steel mills within Brazil with high quality sinter feed suitable

PCF SECURITIES RESEARCH Centaurus Metals P a g e | 13

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