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Academia Mexicana de Ciencias
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
The need of scientific and technological research as a principle to the implantation of renewable
energy
José Franco
y
Claudio A. Estrada
G8+5 Meeting in Rome
March 2009
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10 thousand years ago (starting from the agriculture) hundreds of thousands
4 thousand years ago (starting from the first cities) millions (250 millions at the beginning of the Christian era)
1600: 500 millions de habitants 1830: 1 mil millions 1930: 2 mil millions 1960: 3 mil millions 1974: 4 mil millions 1987: 5 mil millions 1999: 6 mil millions 2007: 6 mil 500 millions
Human population. Demographic waves
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Perhaps the main driving forces of the global environmental crisis is the human population
Human population
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000M
toe
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables
World primary energy supplyWorld primary energy supply
Current status of energy worldwide
19.7 %
80.3 %
14 %
86 %Source: IEA Energy Statistics 2004
Average Annual Increase ~ 2%
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Correlation between Gross Internal Product (GIP) and electricity consumption
Human develop index
Perhaps the growth population have being caused by the development of science and technology and the existence of a huge amount of cheap and high density energy source.
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Current status of energy worldwide
Source: IEA Energy Statistics 2004
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The oil production in USA (above) reached its maximum in 1970, following the predictions. When the world production reach its maximum, it will be the end of cheap oil.(Courtesy: Science, vol. 281, Aug. 21,1998, p.1128; C. Campbell & J. Laherrere)
Current status of energy worldwide
K. Hubert (USA)
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Oil reserves vs production (R/P)
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006
Current status of energy worldwide
The oil reserves could end in less than 42 years
Proven reserves/Production
oil: 42 years Natural Gas: 65 years Coal: 155 years
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Climate change: atmospheric CO2 content
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Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change
Global mean temperature
Global averagesea level
Northern hemispheresnow cover
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92 % fossil,
Energy in Mexico. Mexico is an oil country
Structure of the Primary Energy Production (2005)
(9819.713 petajoules)
Source: Balance Nacional de Energía, 2005 SENER
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Installed electrical power generation capacity by Installed electrical power generation capacity by technology in 2006. CFE technology in 2006. CFE (Federal Electricity Commission)(Federal Electricity Commission)
Current status of energy in Mexico
48, 779 MWe
73 % from fossil fuels
Source: Balance Nacional de Energía, 2007 SENER
Steam35% Hydro
23%
Coal6%
Dual5%
Geothermal + Wind2%
Nuclear3%
Combined Cycle26%
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Source: BP International Repport of Energy, 2006
-5
101520253035404550
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Reserves/production evolution, 1995-2005
Nu
mb
er
of
years Proven reserves/ Production
Oil 9.6 YearsNatural Gas 11.3 Years
Current status of energy in Mexico
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Which energy sources can help us to cope with the depletion of oil and gas fields, preserving at the same time the environment for a sustainable development?
The future of energy in the world
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1 TW = 1012 W : 1,000 EPG Complexes of 1,000 MW each
Source: Renewable in Global Energy Supply IEA 2004
Installed capacity
Required Capacity
The hydrocarbon energy gap
The future of energy in the world
15 TW2008
30 TW205015
TW
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16 www.cie.unam.mxSource: Renewable in Global Energy Supply IEA 2004
0.0051 TW60 TW600 TWSolar
1.73 TWAprox. 70 TWAprox. 676 TWTotal
0.0063 TW2 a 4 TW50 TWWind
0.054 TW0.6 TW12 TWGeothermal
1.4 TW5 TW7 a 10 TWBiomass
0.3 TW0.7 TW4.6 TWHydro
Installed capacity(2003)
Technicallyfeasible potential
Theoreticalglobal potential
0.845 TW10 TW17.5 TWNuclear
1 TW = 1012 W : 1,000 EPG Complexes of 1,000 MW each
Renewable energy sources
The future of energy in the world
0.0051 TW60 TW60 TW600 TWSolarSolar1.73 TWAprox. 70 TWAprox. 70 TWAprox. 676 TWTotalTotal
0.0063 TW2 to 4 TW2 to 4 TW50 TWWindWind
0.054 TW0.6 TW12 TWGeothermal
1.4 TW5 TW5 TW7 a 10 TWBiomassBiomass
0.3 TW0.7 TW4.6 TWHydro
Installed capacity(2003)
Technicallyfeasible potential
Theoreticalglobal potential
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• Access of emerging countries (China, India, Brasil, México…) and less developed countries to the modern energy sources (electricity and fuels) required for their development.
Avoiding strong geopolitical tensions for the control of energy sources (as in the case of hydrocarbons) and
Without irreversible degradation of the environment, particularly by the emission of greenhouse gases.
Challenges for the next decades
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In the future REs will contribute to solve In the future REs will contribute to solve the energy problem of the World and the energy problem of the World and MexicoMexico
• Increase in the international prices of oil and gas (towards 150 dollars per barrel?).
• Global CO2 emissions market (towards 40-60 dollars per Ton?).
• Voluntary policies of several countries (EU and its members, USA, China, India, Brasil) + local initiatives.
• Accelerated progress of renewable energy technologies by scientific and technological research.
Driving factors
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43 countries have defined and implemented RE promotion policies .
These policies are exerting a decisive influence in the growth of RE markets:
Target setting for increased participation of REs in the energy sector,
Promotion of power generation,
Promotion of solar heating and cooling in the industrial and residential sectors,
Promotion of biofuels,
Voluntary policies of green power purchasing and introduction of green tariffs,
Promotion of RE at the municipal level,
Promotion of RE in the rural sector.
Policies for promotion of research and development in RE.
Driving factors
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Worldwide examples of recent policy pro-RE
• 25 countries of the EU have defined an average target for 2010: 25% participation of RE in electricity generation and 12% in total energy consumption.
• Spain (Real ordinances of 1994,1997-98, 2002): 30% target for primary energy consumption from RE in 2020.
• China (RE law, January 2006): 15% target for primary energy consumption from RE in 2020, 60,000 MWe are planed.
• USA: increases budget for RE in 2006 (+65% biomass, +79% solar, +13% wind).
Driving factors
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The World Market of RE
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Annual Investment in Renewable Energy (1995-
2005)
The World Market of RE
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Renewable Energy
Added and Existing
Capacities, 2005
The World Market of RE
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Electrical power production in 2004
** Geothermal, solar, wind, tide/wave/ocean.
Other**
0.8%
Hydro
16.1%
Non-Renew. Waste
0.3%Gas
19.6%
Coal
39.8%
Oil
6.7%
Renewable
Combustibles and
Waste 1.0%
Nuclear
15.7%
Renewables
17.9%
The World Market of RE
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Are the RE technologies competitive?
The World Market of RE
Wh
ole
sa
lep
ow
er
pri
ce
10 20 30 40 50
Power generation costs in USD cents/kWh
Small hydro
Solar photovoltaic
Concentrating solar
Biomass
Geothermal
Wind
Re
tail
c
on
su
me
r p
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pri
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Capital cost of different RE technologies for power generation
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
Windonshore
Windoffshore
Hydro Geothermal Biomass Solarthermal
Tide/wave Solar PV
do
llars
(2
00
0)
pe
r kW
2002 2030
• The capital cost of RE technologies will decrease in the future.
• The higher reduction will occur in PV.
The World Market of RE
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The World Market of RE
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Market penetration = Quality of power disponibility
Development of electrical power generation in the UE-25 (2000-2030)
¿¿Greater pressure on Greater pressure on RE technologies RE technologies without the guaranty without the guaranty of power of power disponibility?disponibility?
The World Market of RE
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Use of RE in electrical markets
Guaranty power disponibility and adopt the
demand curve will be added values to the
penetration of RE in the energy mix markets.
- RE must be used efficiently
- Capacity of hybridization technology, storage energy and renewable fuel production must be the valorisation tools
- Each country must adapt to its naturals resources
The World Market of RE
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30 www.cie.unam.mxSource: http://www.iea.org/rdd/eng/
Investment in R & D + i in RE
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Public investment in R&D+i in RE technologies in the IAE countries. 1974-2002
Investment in R & D + i in RE
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Impact of innovation on cost reduction
40
80
50
60
100
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year
70
Pro
du
cti
on
cost 90
Scaleing1Scaleing15%5%
I+D+iI+D+i60%60%
Series Series and and marketmarket25%25%
Investment in R & D + i in RE
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Technological innovation
Fundamental research
Industrial developme
nt(10%) (90%)Innovatio
n
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Future Energy Projections
Source: German Advisory Council on Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003, www.wbgu.deGlobal Change, 2003, www.wbgu.de
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Objective: Sustainable growth of the world primary energy demand
Year
Source: German Advisory Council on Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003, www.wbgu.deGlobal Change, 2003, www.wbgu.de
Future Energy Projections
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Consideraciones para la planificación energética
Seguridad del suministro energético Reservas de las fuentes energéticas Precios ($/Mtoe, $/Kw) y Costos (c$/kWh) Minimización del impacto ambiental
Oil Carbon Uranium Renewables
Fraction of countries that own ¼ of the sources
0.052 0.059 0.059 0.25
Fraction of countries that own ½
of the sources
0.16 0.12 0.16 0.50
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Objective: Increment of efficiency and cost reductions
• Small hydro – Reconciliation of economy and ecology by
means of adequate equipment and mitigations rules.
• Geothermal – Reduction of installation costs by a factor of 3 in
new technologies of exploration, perforation, thermoelectric convertion.
Technology maturedTechnology matured
EREC Scenario: Priorities according to Technology Maturity
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Objective: Ensure the systems development to high scale.
• Wind – Accelerate the development of larger turbines,
larger systems, marine systems, complex land and extreme ambient conditions.
• Solar photovoltaic – Important reductions of costs by mean of R&D
in materials for cells and processes, design and production of modules, components and systems.
Emerging technology with fast growthEmerging technology with fast growth
EREC Scenario: Priorities according to Technology Maturity
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Objective: Empower the market development and increase
the velocity of development.
• Biomass – Biofuel production, develop of supply chains,
separation and pretreatment. – relievable conversion processes: combustion,
gasification, fermentation, etc.
• Solar Thermal – Develop of applications for heating and cooling. – Technology innovation and first commercial
projects of solar thermal power plants.
Available technology with great potential to developAvailable technology with great potential to develop
EREC Scenario: Priorities according to Technology Maturity
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Objective: Technological development for the first
generation of reliable systems.
• Tide, Wave and Ocean Energy – Projects technical and financial relievable to use
the energy of waves. – Development of pilot projects and
demonstrations of farm type with multi devises.
Technology to be maturedTechnology to be matured
EREC Scenario: Priorities according to Technology Maturity
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RENEWABLE ENERGYRENEWABLE ENERGYDirect and Indirect Forms of Solar EnergyDirect and Indirect Forms of Solar Energy
Renewable Resources will have to provide at least 50% of the world’s energy by
2050
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• Mexico has been doing some efforts to promote RE. Geothermal: 953 MWe, 30 year of development. Wind: 83 MWe, under construction. Solar: 25 MWe in a complex of 950 MWe Combine
cycle, under construction. Bioenergy: A law has been approved by the
congress and a very recent initiative to start the massive production of ethanol in order to have 7 mil 840 barrels by the end of 2012.
…….. but very limited.
In summary RE in Mexico
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• Mexico requires a paradigm shift in the energy production Mexican hydrocarbon reserves will be depleted in
10 years at the current consumption and exportation rates.
Current energetic infrastructure makes Mexico highly dependent for technological reasons and importation of fuels (natural gas, gasoline).
The use of fossil fuels generates greenhouse gasses that contribute to the climate change.
Conclusions 1
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• RE has the potential to solve the energetic problem of Mexico: They are an abundant resource in the country with
the potential to supply the energy demand in a sustainable manner in the cities and the countryside.
The country has the human resources to generate the research and development required for technology appropriation and to promote a national industry in RE.
This would imply the creation of tens of thousand of new jobs.
Conclusions 2
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• To guaranty the sustainable development of the country, the Mexican government should compromise with a long term vision of RE exploitation. It is necessary to generate the policies, legal and
economic frameworks for the massive deployment of RE in the country.
A short, medium and long term national strategic plan for the utilization of RE must be generated.
A National Renewable Energy Commission and a National Renewable Energy Institute should be created, together with a national network of regional R&D&I centers in RE.
Conclusions 3
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Thank you for your
attention!
