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The prospects for nuclear power in Saudi Arabia
Centre Energie - Centre for Energy
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Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega
Director, Centre for Energy
Paris Energy Club- Rueil, 20/04/2018
Regional context: NPP projects popping up everywhere, 17.6 GW announced for Saudi Arabia
2Sources: IAEA, World Nuclear Association
Perfect conditions: growing population, growing energy demand…
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Evolution of TPES and population, 1980-2034E
Sources: IMF, UN World Population Prospects 2017 , BP Statisical Review 2017
Electricity sector key driver of energy demand
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Evolution of electricity consumption and TPES, 1980-2015
Sources: EIA, BP Statistical Review 2017
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Energy mix, 2000
Source: BP Statistical review 2002 & 2017
Energy mix, 2016
… energy mix increasingly reliant on oil… if not for the Paris Agreement, lower demand would free up oil for exports
Gas increasingly used for power generation as production has ramped up… Will shale gas or imports prevail?
6Source: IEA Statistics
Power generation mix, 2000 Power generation mix, 2016
31 GW of oil fired power generating capacity…
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Installed electric power capacity by fuel in %, 2017 Installed electric power capacity by fuel in GW, 2017 (including desalination)
Source: KAPSARC GCC Energy System Overview 2017
Growing CO2 emissions
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Evolution of CO2 emissions and GDP, 1960-2014
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators
Increasing gas fired power generation will require becoming a net gas importer … and comes with risks
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Electricity generation by sources, 1971-2015
Production of natural Gas in 2016 = 109,4
Bcm
Consumption of natural Gas
in 2016 = 109,4 Bcm
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, BP Statistical Review 2017
Improving the energy intensity has never been a priority, could change though following efforts in the UAE
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Comparison of the energy intensity of France, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, 1990-2014
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators
The financial challenge: golden years are over, can the Aramco IPO fill the coffers?
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Evolution of the oil rent and GDP growth, 1980-2022E
* Difference between the value of crude oil production at world prices and total costs of productionSources: World Bank World Development
Indicators, IMF
Energy subsidies still very high, but progressively diminishing and to be almost entirely removed by 2025
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Estimate of energy subsidies, 2016
Source: IEA Statistics
Increased military spending – and regional tensions -or NPPs?
13Source: World Bank World Development Indicators
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Military spending (%of GDP)
Evolution of military spending in % of GDP, 1968-2016
+ 10% spending in 2018
@ USD 56 billion (France:
1.82% of GDP @ EUR
34.2 billion
IRENA: a lot more can be covered by renewables, so does Softbank and its 200 GW solar project (…35 MW end 2017)…
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Total technical potential (GW) for the GCC, 75km from the grid
Source: IRENA Investment Opportunities in the GCC 2016
Prospects: very low-carbon winter electricity generation, 50-50 summer generation mix ? How about EE?
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Potential longer term energy mix, summer and winter (GW)
Source: King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy K.A. Care www.kacare.gov.sa
http://www.kacare.gov.sa
Centre Énergie – Centre for Energy
27, rue de la Procession, 75740 PARIS CEDEX 15Tél. +33 (0) 1 40 61 60 00 • Fax : +33 (0) 1 40 61 60 60
www.ifri.org
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