CENTROC Economic Development Officer forum:Labour Market and Demographic Trends

Lithgow, July 2012

John Turnbull, Manager, Labour Economics, NSW/ACT Office

Source: ABS Labour Force Survey

May-02Jun-02Jul-02Aug-02Sep-02Oct-02Nov-02Dec-02Jan-03Feb-03Mar-03Apr-03May-03Jun-03Jul-03Aug-03Sep-03Oct-03Nov-03Dec-03Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Oct-05Nov-05Dec-05Jan-06Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dec-06Jan-07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-122900

3100

3300

3500

3700

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%NSW Employment & Unemployment Rate

Employment (000s)(left axis)

Unemployment Rate(right axis)

`

Unemployment rate & participation rate by region, NSW, 3 months to May 2011 and 2012

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Labour Force Survey

Region UE rate Part .rate

May-11 May-12 May-11 May-12

Sydney 5.1% 4.9% 65.9% 66.0%

Richmond-Tweed & Mid-North Coast 5.9% 4.8% 55.5% 53.6%

Murray-Murrumbidgee 5.6% 5.5% 63.4% 63.8%

Hunter 4.8% 4.9% 61.7% 61.4%

Illawarra & South Eastern 4.7% 5.2% 60.1% 58.6%

Western NSW 6.4% 5.2% 63.4% 59.7%

NEW SOUTH WALES 5.2% 5.0% 63.9% 63.4%

Unemployment rate (%) by SLA, Central West NSW, March 2012Statistical Local Area (SLA) Mar-11 Mar-12

Upper Lachlan 2.6 2.2

Boorowa (A) 3.2 2.5

Bland (A) 3.2 3.2

Harden (A) 4.1 3.3

Blayney (A) 3.9 3.7

Cabonne (A) 3.8 3.8

Oberon (A) 3.1 3.9

Weddin (A) 3.3 4.0

Orange (C) 4.4 4.2

Young (A) 5.0 4.2

Bathurst Regional (A) - Pt A 4.8 4.8

Bathurst Regional (A) - Pt B 4.7 4.8

Lachlan (A) 4.9 5.0

Forbes (A) 4.8 5.4

Parkes (A) 5.6 5.7

Lithgow (C) 6.0 6.9

Cowra (A) 6.5 7.3

Wellington 8.6 9.3

Source: DEEWR Small Area Labour Markets

Population growth in Central West NSW by SLA, 2006-2011

Source: ABS Census 2011 (place of enumeration)

SLA name Growth

Orange (C) 10.3%Blayney (A) 8.0%Bathurst Regional (A) - Pt A 7.3%Bathurst Regional (A) - Pt B 6.9%Cabonne (A) 3.2%Boorowa (A) 3.0%Lithgow (C) 2.4%Wellington (A) 2.3%Upper Lachlan Shire (A) 2.3%Young (A) 2.1%Parkes (A) 2.0%Oberon (A) 1.2%Harden (A) -0.2%Weddin (A) -0.3%Lachlan (A) -1.5%Cowra (A) -1.8%Forbes (A) -2.7%Bland (A) -6.0%

Employment growth by industry, (‘000s) Western NSW, 5 years to May 2012

Source: ABS Labour Force Survey

Agriculture Rental, Hiring & Real Estate

Information Media & Telecomms Wholesale Trade

Administrative and Support Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Financial and Insurance Services

Transport, Postal & Warehousing Education & Training

Prof., Scientific & Technical Accommodation & Food Services

Manufacturing Public Administration and Safety

Arts and Recreation Services Other Services

Construction Health & Social Assistance

Retail Trade Mining

-15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0

-11.9-1.1-0.7-0.7-0.4-0.1

0.10.40.5

1.21.21.51.51.7

2.42.7

4.24.8

8.1

Chifley Employment Service Area

Patterson Employment Service Area

Lachlan Employment Service Area

Employers’ Recruitment Experience, Central West NSW, 2011

ESAUnfilled

vacanciesApplicants per

vacancy

Suitable applicants per

vacancy

Chifley 13% 5.4 1.8

Patterson 6% 5.4 1.8

Lachlan 20% 4.1 1.7

All regions 10% 6.2 2.0

Source: DEEWR Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experience

Occupations hard to fill, Central West, 2011

Higher skill, qualification or experience

Retail Managers (Chifley) Structural Steel & Welding (Chifley, Lachlan, Patterson)

Accountants (Lachlan, Chifley) Motor Mechanics (Chifley, Lachlan, Patterson)

Early Childhood Teachers (Lachlan, Patterson) Plumbers (Chifley)

Midwives (Lachlan) Electricians (Lachlan)

Registered Nurses (Lachlan) Fire Fighters (Lachlan)

Occupational Therapists (Patterson) Butchers (Lachlan)

Metal Fitters and Machinists (Chifley, Patterson) Real Estate Sales Agents (Patterson)

Occupations hard to fill, Central West, 2011

Middle and lower skill, qualification or experience

Child Care Workers (Lachlan) Retail Supervisors (Patterson)

Aged and Disabled Carers (Lachlan) Motor Vehicles & Parts Salespersons (Chifley)

Nurse Support & Personal Care Workers (Patterson) Sales Assistants (General) (Chifley, Lachlan and Patterson)

Receptionists (Chifley) Kitchen Hands (Lachlan, Patterson)

Sales Representatives (Chifley) Domestic Cleaners (Lachlan)

Bar Attendants and Baristas (Lachlan, Patterson) Commercial Cleaners (Paterson)

Housekeepers (Chifley)

Youth unemployment rates, NSW regions, year to May 2012

UE rate

NEW SOUTH WALES 11.4%

Sydney 11.4%

Richmond-Tweed & Mid-North Coast 14.5%

Murray-Murrumbidgee 8.3%

Hunter 9.0%

Illawarra and South Eastern 11.5%

Western NSW 13.4%

Source: ABS Labour Force Survey

Indigenous & non-Indigenous unemployment rates, NSW

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Indigenous

Non-indigenous

ABS Labour Force Characteristics of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2010 (6287.0)

Unemployment rate by qualification, Australia, May 2011

Total

Below Year 12

Year 12

Certificate n.f.d.

Certificate I/II

Certificate III/IV

Advanced Diploma/Diploma

Degree or higher

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%

Source: ABS Education and Work Australia, May 2011, catalogue 6227.0

Percentage of population age 15 plus holding Certificate III or higher qualification, 2006

Source: ABS Census 2006

RDA region Percent

Sydney 49%

Illawarra 44%

Southern Inland 44%

Hunter 42%

Central Coast NSW 42%

South Coast 42%

Mid North Coast 41%

Northern Rivers 40%

Central West 38%

Murray 38%

Riverina 37%

Northern Inland 36%

Orana 35%

Far West 30%

NSW 46%

Employment growth by industry, (‘000s) Australia, 5 years to 2016-17

Manufacturing Information Media & Telecomms

Agriculture Rental, Hiring & Real Estate

Arts and Recreation Services Wholesale Trade

Administrative and Support Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste

Other Services Financial and Insurance Services

Accommodation & Food Services Public Administration and Safety Transport, Postal & Warehousing

Retail Trade Education & Training

Mining Prof., Scientific & Technical

Construction Health & Social Assistance

-150.0 -100.0 -50.0 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0

-85.64.65.56.77.8

17.017.717.918.418.5

30.931.2

42.050.4

61.3103.7108.2

131.2241.8

Source: DEEWR projections

Further information

– www.deewr.gov.au/lmip – www.deewr.gov.au/skillshortages – www.deewr.gov.au/regionalreports – www.deewr.gov.au/australianjobs – www.skillsinfo.gov.au – www.joboutlook.gov.au

For a copy of the 2012 Australian Jobs publication please email AustralianJobs@deewr.gov.au

Questions?