Ph. D. Completion and Attrition: Analysis of Baseline Data

Robert SowellNSF Workshop

A FRESH LOOK AT Ph.D. EDUCATION

March 31, 2008

CGS Ph.D. Completion ProjectQuantitative Data Submitted by Institutions

12 Years (1992-93 through 2003-04)

Program completion and attrition• 30 Institutions

• 5 Broad Fields

• 54 Disciplines

• 330 Programs

• ~49,000 Students

Broad field demographiccompletion• Gender (G)

• Citizenship/Ethnicity (CE)

• 24 Institutions (G)

• 23 Institutions (CE)

• ~40,000 Students (G)

• ~ 40,000 Students (CE)

Ten-Year Completion and Attrition Analysis:For Students Entering Ph.D. Programs

1992-93 through 1994-95 (A Cohorts)

Completion• Program Data: Overall, broad field, discipline

• Gender Data: Broad field

• Citizenship/Ethnicity: Broad field

Attrition• Program Data: Overall, broad field

Profile of Data (A-Cohorts) for Ten-Year Completion Analysis

Approximate distribution across fields

9,359Citizenship&

Ethnicity Data

9,683Gender Data

12,135Program Data

Overall Ten-Year Completion Rates

5

11

23

36

46

5155

570

2040

60C

umul

ativ

e C

ompl

etio

n R

ate

(%)

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data

Ten-Year Cumulative Completion Rates by Broad Field

010

2030

4050

6070

Com

plet

ion

Rat

e (%

)

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Engineering Life SciencesMathematics & Physical Sciences Social SciencesHumanities

57

5448

41

29

6463565549

Ten-Year Completion Rates for Selected Disciplines

44%Political Science59%Biology

45%Sociology64%Molecular/Cell Biology

46%Anthropology65%Neuroscience

52%Economics69%Microbiology/Immunology

65%Psychology69%Genetics

Social Science 56%Life Science 63%

41%Computer Science56%Electrical Engineering

51%Mathematics63%Biomedical Engineering

59%Physics63%Chemical Engineering

62%Chemistry66%Mechanical Engineering

78%Civil EngineeringMathematics and Physical

Sciences 55%Engineering 64%

Ten-Year Completion Rates: Broad Field and Gender

56 56

52

57

52

65 64

59

53

47

40

50

60

70

En g in e e r in g Life Scie n ce s M ath &Ph ysica l

Sc ie n ce s

So cia lSc ie n ce s

Hu man itie s

Com

plet

ion

Rat

e (%

)

F em ale Male

Annual Ph.D. Completion Rates by Gender in Mathematics & Physical Sciences

02

46

810

1214

1618

Com

plet

ion

Rat

e (%

)

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Female Male

Annual Ph.D. Completion Rates by Gender in Social Sciences

03

69

12C

ompl

etio

n R

ate

%

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Female Male

Ten-Year Completion Rates: Broad Field and Citizenship

59 58

51

56

50

70

6668

63

52

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Engine e ring Life S cie nce s M a th &P hysica lS cie nce s

S ocia lS cie nce s

Hum a nitie s

Com

plet

ion

Rat

e (%

)

Do me stic In te rn atio n a l

Annual Ph.D. Completion Rates by US Citizenship in Social Sciences

03

69

1215

Com

plet

ion

Rat

e %

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Domestic International

Annual Ph.D. Completion Rates by US Citizenship in Engineering

04

812

1620

Com

plet

ion

Rat

e %

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Domestic International

Ten-Year Completion Rates: Broad Field and Ethnicity

47

60

37

47

5253

47

53

4446

55 54 5355

37

61 60

52

57

51

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Engine e ring Life S cie nce s M a th & P hysica lS cie nce s

S ocia l S cie nce s Hum a nitie s

Com

plet

ion

Rat

e (%

)

African Am erican Asian H ispan ic W hite

Ten-Year Completion Rates: Ethnicity + Int’l and Broad Field

47

5355

6160

47

54

60

37

53 53 52

4744

5557

52

46

37

51

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Afr ican Ame r ican Asian Hisp an ic W h ite

Com

plet

ion

Rat

e (%

)

E ngineering Life S c ienc es M ath & P hy s ic al S c ienc es S oc ial S c ienc es Hum anit ies

Cumulative 10-Year Ph.D. Completion Rates by Broad Fields for African American Students

010

2030

4050

60C

ompl

etio

n R

ate

(%)

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Engineering Life SciencesMath & Physical Sci Social SciencesHumanities

47

60

37

47

52

Cumulative Overall Ten-Year Attrition Rates

6

14

20

2325

2728

29 30 310

1020

30A

ttriti

on R

ate

(%)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data

Cumulative Ten-year Attrition Rates by Broad Field5

1015

2025

3035

40A

ttriti

on R

ate

(%)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Engineering Life SciencesMathematics & Physical Sciences Social SciencesHumanities

31

23212018

37

32

26.726.926.2

Ten-Year Continuing, Completion and Attrition Rates: Broad Field

020

4060

8010

0C

umul

ativ

e R

ates

%

Engineering Life Sciences Math & Physical Sci. Social Sciences3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Continuing Completion Attrition

Other Analysis

By Institution Type (Private vs. Public)

By cohort sizes (Large, Medium, and Small)

By entering time ( Seven- and four-year completion and attrition)

Early Attrition (Status of student leaving program)

CGS Ph.D. Completion Project:Other Institutional Input

Conduct student exit surveys

Provide pre-project factor assessment data (for the institution and each participating program)

Implement new interventions aimed at improving completion and reducing attrition

Categories of New Interventions

Selection/Matching

Mentoring and Advising

Financial Support and Structure

Program Environments

Research Experiences

Curricular and Administrative Processes and Procedures

Future Questions to be Addressed in the Ph.D. Completion Project

Why do students say they complete (or not)? What are the perceptions about graduate school of completers and non-completers? What is the impact of the six categories of interventions? How does efficacy vary across broad field and for which populations? Can we project ultimate completion and time to degree from our completion and attrition data?