CH 19: “Technological Solutions for Energy Security” By Paul J. Werbos

Energy Security Challenges for the 21st Century

Maj Duc Ho

Overview

• Author’s Bio• Research Questions• Transportation Fuel Security• Proposed Strategy• Challenges and Opportunities for Solar Electric

Generation• Conclusion

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Paul Werbos

• Trained as mathematician• Economics degrees from Harvard and the

London School of Economics• Pioneer in recurrent neural networks• Served as program director at NSF. Retired (Feb

2015)

Research Questions

• 3 Major Energy Security Challenges

• Transportation Fuel Security: • “How can we zero out dependence on oil in the shortest possible

time?”

• Daytime electricity: • “How can we eliminate the need import natural gas used to

generate daytime electricity as soon as possible”

• Baseload electricity: • How can we help the world avoid the long-term cost of expanding

well-established options (coal, nuclear, or solar farms) as oil and natural gas become too expensive?

• SOLUTION: market-based strategies based on current technologies

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Transportation Fuel Security

Background• Most of fuel consumption comes from cars and trucks• In the US, new cars stay on the road 15-17 yrs (trucks last

much longer)• To achieve 50%+ independence from fossil fuels in 20-25

yrs, we have to change half the cars in 5-10 yrs • Cars are powered by 4 proven methods (other than

hydrocarbons) :

• Alternative liquid fuels

• Electricity in batteries

• Gaseous fuels (natural gas, dimethyl ether, or hydrogen)

• Compressed air4

Transportation Fuel Security

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• Other viable energy sources• Electricity stored in new types of ultra capacitors

with high energy density• Wind-up cars • Heat batteries, or thermal storage units

BUT• New technologies requires consumer buy-ins

• Auto research shows consumer will only buy new vehicle if the fuel for a car is available in at least 10% of the local gas stations.

• Liquid fuels = 2x driving range (vs electricity or gaseous fuels)

• Electricity = 2x overall energy efficiency and easier fit with existing infrastructure

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GEM Flexibility

• What is GEM (Gasoline-Ethanol-Methanol) - Flexibility?• Why GEM-Flexibility?• Benefits

• Inexpensive upgrades• Corrosion-resistant gaskets, hoses, engine

materials• Adaptive engine control (to optimize performance

for any mixture)• Well established tech for conventional cars by 1990

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Benefits• Much less expensive than hybrid, gaseous, pure

electric, or fuel cells• Conversion to GEM flexibility in new cars could be

accomplished in 2-4 years• Significant benefits to coal-to-liquid tech and biofuels

• Increase demand for Coal-to-Liquid tech (Clean Coal)

• Allow producers of biofuels to produce more fuel from the same biomass, while wasting less energy

GEM Flexibility

PHEVs

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• PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicle)• Hybrid car/truck with a larger battery• Plug

• Benefits• Scaling up production is easy (minus battery) Ex.

Toyota has doubled production of hybrids every year

• Net benefit to electric grid, not net cost• No need for increased generation capacity due

to unused nighttime capacity

PHEVs

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• Benefits• Higher efficiency compared to pure hybrids

(gasoline engine is 30% efficient vs. 60% with PHEV when using natural gas from power plants)

• Reduced total CO2 emissions• Challenges

• High consumer cost due to larger batteries• As battery cost goes down, PHEVs will be more

attractive

Gaseous Fuels (Natural Gas & Hydrogen)

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• Natural gas is NOT a viable solution• Natural is scarce and no more plentiful than oil• Major share of reserve is owned by Russia

and OPEC members, no national security benefit from shifting from oil to natural gas

• Upgrade cost to a car are between $1000-$3000/car

• Hydrogen is NOT a viable solution• Not an energy source, but an energy carrier…

like electricity• Expensive and inefficient

• Re-forming natural gas at fuel station or on-board vehicle

• Use electricity to split H20, and store in fuel cells on-board to convert it back to electricity

Proposed Strategy

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• Goals:• Reduce the shock of major oil price rise by

diversifying fuel sources• Improve efficiency in production and use of fuels

and electricity• Improve efficiency of electric power grid• Providing additional storage to the gird and making

better use of night-time transmission capability

• Core Strategy• Accelerate the arrival of GEM-Flexible PHEVs as

much as possible

Proposed Strategy

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• Four Measures of progress to maximize• Market penetration of Gem-Flexible highway

vehicles, fuel-efficient hybrids, PHEVs, and ALL GEM-Flexible PHEVs

• Technology that improves quality and cost of GEM-flexible cars and PHEVs

• Technology for supplying alternate liquid fuels (both biological and non-biological)

• Penetration and technology for connecting PHEVs to the electric grid (home and parking lots)

Transportation Fuels beyond Cars and Trucks

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• Bus and off-highway vehicles • Can provide test beds for GEM flexibility and battery-

based technologies• Trains

• Can’t be used for test bed• Already uses highly efficient diesel-electric hybrid

engines• Magnetic levitation (requires electricity) is expensive, but

exciting (ex China)• Airplanes

• Stuck with liquid fuels (Require high energy density)• Synthetic jet fuel from coal or methane) is becoming

popular (higher carbon)• High energy, low carbon (i.e. hydrazine hydrate or rocket

fuel dimethyl hydrazine) are easier to handle, but still faces technological and regulator challenges

New Tech in Electric Generation

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• Daytime Generation driven by consuming natural gas• More expensive than coal or nuclear, but low capital

cost makes it attractive• New Tech should compete with national gas for

daytime electric generation• Possible Tech to supply baseload market

• Solar energy• Potential to generate 100x the world’s demand

(even if solar farms are deployed to only desert lands)

• Wind• Intelligent power grid • Rooftop photovoltaic solar power

Challenges and Opportunities in Cutting Cost of Earth-Based Solar Farms

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• 2 Types of Solar• Photovoltaics (PVs)• Solar Thermal systems

• Largest cost = labor• Strategic goal:

• Build solar farms cheaply enough so they can compete with natural gas in generating daytime electricity

• Solar Thermal System = Best option vs PVs• Movable “dishes” made up of mirrors to track the sun• Mirrors are cheaper than cells• Labor and installation are the main cost

• Trough technology• Proven and mature• Could compete with NG if cost is brought down to 6

cents/kwh

Challenges and Opportunities in Cutting Cost of Earth-Based Solar Farms

• Strategy

• Maximum support to deploy movable dishes Double the efficiency from heat to electricity• 4th gen Stirling engines• Johnson Thermo-Electric Converter (JTEC)

• Retune reflector designs so they can be mass-produced in existing underutilized auto factories

• Develop construction automation technology to reduce cost of physically setting up the dishes

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Conclusion

• Technology is within reach to eliminate need to import oil and burn fossil fuel to generate electricity—at little to no cost to consumers.

• Need to focus on near-term innovative research and simple regulatory fixes

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Discussion Questions

• How does today’s technologies and market conditions alter the proposed strategies?

• What else can be done in the short-term to improve our transportation and electric generation security?

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Questions?