Ch 5

Population Theories

Demographic Transition

The phenomenon of population changes

in a country over time.

4 Stages:1. Pre-transition

2. Early transition3. Late transition4. Post transition

Pre-transitionStage One

Increase in birth and death rateResult: little/no population increase

What is pre-transition?

The pre-transition stage is considered to be the most primitive stage of the demographic transition. About 1/3 of the world’s countries were in between the pre-transition and early transition stages.

The pre-transition stage is when families in one region have much shorter life expectancy and large families.

The average age of a senior was between 45-50

There was a very high birth rate and extreme infant mortality.

Examples

There are few or no countries that are in the Pre-Transition stage of population development

Countries such as Chad, Mali, (sub-Saharan) were the most recent countries to evolve from the Pre-Transition stage

All countries and areas of the world were once Pre-transitional.

Some isolated island populations and remotely located indigenous cultures may still have many of the pre-transitional characteristics due to their lack of exposure to outside cultures.

Early transitionStage Two

Decrease in death rate and increase in birth rate

Result: Population increase

Early Transition

Many third, fourth, and fifth world countries are still at this stage. In early transition you will see a very big drop in the death rate. The birth rates are also remaining high. As a result of this an increase in population occurred. This stage is when Earth’s population rose from one billion (1850) to six billion (2000).

This population increase was mainly caused by: The improvements in public health, water quality, improvements in sewage systems all caused by the industrial revolution

About one-third of the world’s countries have completed this transition. However, about another third of all countries, plus the northern states of India — in total, about 1.5 billion people — remain in the transition’s early or middle phases. Most are in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. Others are scattered across southern Asia and Latin America.

Examples of Early Transition

The following graph shows the population in Angola for the year 2005. It is between pre and early transition. The birth rate is still very high but many children are dying at a young age. Also the graph

Demonstrates that people are not living to be very old

Late transition(stage Three)

Decrease in birth and death rateResult: Population decrease

Late transition…

Push the population into stability through declining birth rates.

Changes in death rates are primarily due to the change in a population.

But in the end…

Towards the end of stage three, fertility rate falls to replacement levels—the level of fertility where women (on average) are only having enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the pop.

Although it may fall into replacement levels, population growth continues in relation of population momentum—the tendency for pop. Growth to maintain beyond the time that replacement fertility achieves because of a relatively high focus on people in the childbearing years.

Post-transition(stage four)

The birth rate is relatively equal to the death rate

Result:A general stabilization of the population

Definition

Stage 4/ Post Transition-when populations reached similarly low birth and death rates so that populations would become essentially stable

Explanation

Post transition is basically when there is a greater percentage of deaths than births.

EX. 1000 people die in one month and 999 people are born that same month.

Decline in birth rates…Towards the end of the 19th century, developing countries

showed a decline in birth rates. Several factors are:

Child death encouraged parents that future children may not survive; parents may cease having children due to this.

Increased urbanization may change traditional values. The cost of having children while living in urban areas are exceedingly high.

Women become more educated, and joining the workforce may keep them busy.

Improvements in contraceptive technology. The role of women in society Changes in traditional cultural role models (religion)

Who Is This Happening To?

Countries that are at this stage (Total Fertility Rate of less than 2.5 in 1997) include: United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and most of Europe, Sweden.

China and some South-Eastern Asian nations are experiencing a ‘Birth Dearth’ but due to a hyper-expanded original population, they will be much later evolving to a post transitional society because of their population method.

Sweden

Visual Aid

Possible Effects of the Birth Dearth

Birth rate should be 2.1 to replace itself. It is not, why?– Family structures

more single parents fewer children per family less family orientation

– Role of Women birth control work marriage, church, morality, equality

What problems do you foresee?

Problems Around Us– Family structures

One vehicle (car industry changes) Apartment living (housing devalues, construction

companies fail) Purchases (stores downsize, disappear)

– Aging Population stressed healthcare (reforms) fewer cars ( change in transportation) government representation (more older politicians-

focal change)– Workforce

younger, less experience (changes to education) job shopping (salaries rise therefore prices rise) What else?

Financial problems

Overall the shifts will cause a devaluing of assets held by the elderly (inflation and interest rates). Financial institutions will be forced to pay out large payments for interest. Financial markets will be cash starved ( older people will protect limited assets).

What do you see in the end?

Poor elderly (largest portion of your population)

Starved financial markets