Chainlinks 2012 National Retail Forecast-TRS

7/31/2019 Chainlinks 2012 National Retail Forecast-TRS

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ChainLinks Retail Advisors

U.S. National Retail Report 2012 Forecast

Matt KircherChainLinks President650.931.2220

[email protected]

Garrick H. BrownChainLinks Research Director916.329.1558

[email protected]

Brought to you by:

2012 Retail ForecastWelcome to ChainLinks 2012 Retail Forecast Report. This

report not only contains our forecast for the national retail real

estate market in 2012, but also includes a statistical summary

of the activity that we witnessed during the third quarter of 2011

and detailed expansion plans of just a few of the retailers that

we are tracking throughout our 60+ offices across nearly every

major market in the United States.

2011 Holiday Sales Season Forecast

Before we focus on this years coming holiday sales season,

lets recap what happened last year. Heading into the 2010

holiday sales season, analysts were generally skeptical aboutretail sales. Luxury retailers had only seen a return to positive

monthly same-store comparables in September. Prior to that,

many had endured as many as 18 consecutive months of

double digit monthly declines. Consumer confidence was in

the 50swell below the historical average of 95 and the most

recent ranking (October 2011) of 71.8.

Last year, groups as diverse as the International Council of

Shopping Centers (ICSC) and the National Retail Federation

(NRF) were predicting that holiday sales would only increase

by about 2.5%. Then, the unexpected happened. Consumers

showed up. By early December, most think-tanks were

upwardly revising their forecasts. By mid-December it wasclear that nearly everyone had underestimated just how much

the American consumer would spend. Depending upon the

data source, we closed the 2010 holiday sales season with

sales increases in the 5% to 6% range.

As important as this was in terms of the general economy,

what occurred next was even more critical to retail real estate;

retailers significantly upped their growth plans. Retailers hadalready been increasing expansion plans over the virtually

non-existent levels of 2009, but this had primarily been driven

by discounters and other concepts that had benefited from

the newfound frugality of the American consumer. Following

Christmas 2010, we saw middle-of-the-road and luxury

concepts getting back in the game. We also saw discounters

adding extra units to their growth plans. Prior to the 2010

holiday sales season, retail requirements had been up about

20% over 2009 levels. By February 2011, requirements were

up over 40% above the past years levels.

The surprising success of the 2010 holiday sales season was

one of the driving forces behind keeping occupancy growthin the black this year. Retailer sentiment remained high

through the annual ICSC ReCon event in Las Vegas this past

May, when many retailers further bolstered growth plans in

the face of an economic outlook that looked to be improving.

This, unfortunately, only lasted until the debt ceiling/credit

downgrade debacle of August. As the economic outlook

darkened with uncertainty and fears of a double-dip recession,

retailers began to pull back on planned expansion. At the very

least, those who did not trim their number of planned new

units, were suddenly taking much longer to get deals done.

While we are now past the worst of this late summer swoon,

the economic outlook remains extremely cloudy at best. Most

economists have downgraded job growth and GDP forecasts

for the coming year; the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis will

likely morph into a European recession and retailers continue

to trim growth plans.

That being said, the impact of last years holiday shopping

season cannot be understated. It was a catalyst behind a
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Chainlinks Retail Advisors

U.S. National Retail Report

significant amount of retail growth throughout the United States

over the past year. Now, it may be true that most of this growth

was mitigated by just a few major retailer bankruptcies (as we

will discuss later in this report), however, we are firm in our

conviction that the impact of last years holiday season is what

sent us on a positive trajectory for 2011.

Despite the fact that economic uncertainty dominated the

landscape throughout the majority of the third quarter of this

year, it was only in the third quarter that we finally saw vacancy

levels moving downward. Growth over the first half of the year

was largely cancelled out by just the Borders and Blockbuster

vacancies. Other, smaller retail failures thrown into the mix

certainly didnt help. But overall, what we saw was minor

increases in demand from most of the marketplace, swallowed

up by a few big failures. So where does this leave us heading

into the 2011 holiday shopping season?

The Death of Black Friday

First, retail real estate statistics aside, the impact of BlackFriday is slowly slipping away. As this report went to press,

Black Friday 2011 numbers were not yet available. However,

we were seeing trends that seem to suggest that Black Fridays

days may be numbered as more and more retailers are pushing

up their opening times. This year, Target, Best Buy, Kohls and

Macys all opened their stores at midnight to accommodate

early holiday shoppers. Abercrombie & Fitch, Justice, Hollister,

Ann Taylor, The Gap, Old Navy, Banana Republic, GameStop

and dozens of other chains also followed suit with many of their

locations. But a number of retailers have taken things even

farther. Both Toys R Us and Walmart opened stores as early as

9 PM on Thanksgiving night.

While this has created some backlash (a Target employee

started an online petition to urge the Minneapolis-based retailer

to return to opening stores no earlier than 5 AM on Black Friday

so that employees could still enjoy their Thanksgiving holiday

it garnered over 190,000 signatures in less than a week),

the reality is that consumers have continued to show up in

record numbers at ungodly hours to get an early jump on their

holiday shopping.

It may take a year or two, but we expect the majority of retailers

and shopping centers to eventually be open on Thanksgiving

Day. It already is one of the busiest days of the year for movie

theaters and many restaurant chains (an estimated 14 million

Americans ate out this Thanksgiving). With retailers facing ever

more intense competition from both online retailers and one

another and consumers continuing to demonstrate that they

are willing to show up earlier to cash in on deals, we see it as

only a matter of time before Thanksgiving Day becomes the

new Black Friday.

But even as the importance of Black Friday seems to be fading

into the past, the question remains how will the market perform

this year? The predictions from ICSC and the NRF have, so

far, been in the 2.5% to 3.0% increase range. Of course, the

problem in this negative media cycle has been that many media

outlets have run with stories that headline reduced growth

ahead. The problem with this is that even these projections

are looking towards sales growth. They just dont see sales

growth matching the level of increase we saw last year. Yet,to the uneducated reader, many of these articles would seem

to paint a picture of declining sales revenues not increasing

sales revenues that are simply not living up to last years

surprising results.

Yet, we think these numbers are low to begin with. First off,

the projections of the major think-tanks are right back to

where they were last year. That being said, this year we have

concerns over the Eurozone, political dysfunction and a whole

new palette of issues plaguing the economy. But, one year ago

there was a similar set of issues hanging over the economy

in fact, they were issues that were actually more prescient than

our current crisis of confidence driven issues. And, despite allof these challenges, we are actually heading into this holiday

shopping season with higher levels of consumer confidence

than where we were last year.

We expect sales gains this year to be in the 3.5% to 4.0%

range. The year-over-year increase will not be as high as

last years jump, but these numbers will still translate into a

relatively strong holiday shopping season. We are more bullish

in our forecast than the NRF or ICSC, although we are not as

optimistic (though we hope they are right) as Customer Growth

Partners, a research group that recently published a report

forecasting 6.5% annual sales growth.

But regardless of whether our more positive forecast turns outto be true, this does not necessarily mean that this will translate

into a surge of retailer demand this year. In fact, our informal

polling of retailers is telling us that they are in a much more

conservative state of mind this year. The reality is that most

economists and most retailers are expecting 2012 to be a year

of slow, grinding growth thanks to the implications of both the

likely European recession and the continued ineffectiveness

of our government (which will be exacerbated by a gridlocked

election year) to create any sort of economic policy relief. Of

course, the political issues go deeper than this, to the fear


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that political dysfunction may actually derail the economy. It

certainly threatened to do so this summer, so many see it as a

looming potential issue at least through November 2012. So

while we see a strong holiday sales season ahead, we do not

see the same surge in retailer demand occurring that happened

last year.

So where does this leave us?

Retailer Demand Survey

We recently completed our quarterly retailer demand survey,

which asks over 600 top retail brokers in over 50 markets

nationally to rank current retailer demand on a scale of one

(reflecting the lowest levels of demand possible) to ten (reflecting

the highest levels of demand possible).

While the national average of retailer demand remained stable

at a ranking of sevenindicating levels of retailer demand that

are slightly above average, we did see a number of cracks in the

faade that our brokers at the local level reported to us. First

off, one almost unanimous response was that deals were taking

longer to get done. Retailers have responded to big picture

economic uncertainty with caution. Secondly, urban levels of

demand were immensely higher than those that we are seeing

in suburban marketplaces.

Markets that saw no movement in retailer demand included;

Albuquerque, Atlanta, Baltimore, Birmingham, Dallas, Denver,

Detroit, Indianapolis, Inland Empire, Las Vegas, Miami, New

Orleans, New York, North New Jersey, Oakland/East Bay,

Omaha, Orange County (CA), Orlando, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh,

Portland (OR), Salt Lake City, San Diego, San Francisco, San

Jose/South Bay, St. Louis and Tampa/St. Petersburg.

Markets that saw improvement in retailer demand include;

Austin, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Des Moines, Jacksonville,

Kansas City, Los Angeles, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Nashville,

Oklahoma City, Phoenix, Raleigh/Durham, Sacramento, San

Antonio, Seattle, Tucson and Washington DC.

Markets that saw retailer demand drop included; Charleston

(SC), Cincinnati, Cleveland, Houston, Little Rock, Louisville,

Memphis, Mobile, Newport News/Norfolk, Hampton Roads, San

Jose/South Bay and Tulsa.

2012 Retail Forecast

We expect retail vacancies to continue to fall over the coming

year at an extremely slow pace. Though we do expect a strong

holiday shopping season, we expect retailers to be in cautious

growth mode throughout the majority of 2012.

Retailer expansion will be dominated once again by discounters

and grocery store chains, as well as new fast casual restaurant

concepts. But discounter expansion (with the exception of dollar

stores) may begin to slow by year-end, if for no other reason than

players like TJX or Ross have already been in aggressive growth

mode for a couple of years now and prime second-generation

sites are becoming harder to find. Meanwhile, grocery growth will

come mostly in the form of smaller format stores in the 20,000 to

40,000 square foot range. Even while discount, luxury/organic

and ethnic themed grocery chains will be expanding with these

smaller footprints, we will see increasing consolidation from

unionized, mid-priced regional chains that will be returning

stores (typically in the 50,000 to 80,000 square foot range) to

the marketplace. While fast food and fast casual chains wil

continue to expand, we also expect casual dining chains (with

a few exceptions) to continue to contract. Meanwhile, retailers

in the middle will continue to be squeezed. While The Gap and

Christopher & Banks have announced plans to close hundreds

of stores between them in the coming year, we suspect there wil

be more. Meanwhile, mom-and-pop retail will largely continue

to out of the picture until home prices stabilize (home equity

loans remain the primary initial source of funding for small retai

startups). Meanwhile, even as growth continues to be tempered

by economic headwinds, we will also continue to see retailers

shrinking their footprints.

The bad news is that we dont expect retailer demand and

leasing activity to increase above this years levels in the

year ahead.

The good news is that we also dont expect retailer bankruptcies

and failures to take as severe a toll in 2012 as they did in 2011.

Retail shopping center vacancy throughout the United States

stood at 9.3% as of the close of the third quarter. Vacancy levels

over the first half of 2011 had remained firm at 9.4% despite

strong leasing activity. The failures of Borders and Blockbuste

alone translated into nearly 12 million square feet of space

being returned to the marketplacemitigating nearly all o

the growth the market recorded over the first half of the year

These, of course, werent the only bankruptcies impacting the

market, but retail closures continued to keep pace with growthover the first six months of 2011. It was only in the third quarte

that the market finally began to see some movement in overal

vacancy rates.

While we expect retailer bankruptcies to diminish in 2012, they

will remain an issue. Throughout 2011, retail failures largely

mitigated what would have been respectable growth levels. As

of the close of the third quarter, year-to-date shopping cente

absorption stood above 12 million square feet. Take just the

failure of Borders and Blockbuster out of the mix and this

number would have doubled.

Looking forward, we continue to have strong concerns ove

mid-priced retail chains. Consumer shopping patterns havediverged to the extremes; luxury retail is back for the higher-

end consumer and discount retail is flourishing. Across every

segment of the retail industry, it is the mid-priced retailer who is

suffering most. Middle-class consumers have downsized and

there are no signs that the new frugality will end any time soon

Chains caught in the middle will be where the most contraction

occurs and though we dont expect retail closures to approach

last years levels, they will continue to mitigate growth across the

board. Vacancy will shrink in 2012, but it will be at a slow pace

measured more by basis points than by percentage points.


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Retailer Demand Survey

2Q 2010 3Q 2010 4Q 2010 1Q 2011 2Q 2011 3Q 2011Albuquerque NM 4 4 4 5 5 5Atlanta GA 5 5 6 6 6 6Austin TX 3 3 4 5 5 6Baltimore MD 6 6 7 8 8 8Birmingham AL 4 4 4 6 6 6Boston MA 7 7 7 8 8 9Charlotte NC 4 4 4 5 5 6Charleston SC 4 4 4 5 5 4Chicago IL 3 4 4 5 5 6Cincinnati OH 5 5 5 6 6 5Cleveland OH 2 3 5 6 6 5Dallas TX 4 5 6 6 6 7Denver CO 4 4 4 5 5 5Des Moines IA 3 3 3 4 4 6Detroit MI 5 5 5 5 6 6Houston TX 4 5 6 8 8 6Indianapolis IN 4 4 4 5 5 5Inland Empire CA 4 4 4 5 5 5Jacksonville FL 4 4 4 4 4 5Kansas City MO 5 5 5 7 7 8Las Vegas NV 2 3 4 5 6 6Little Rock AR 4 4 5 6 7 5Los Angeles CA 6 6 7 8 8 9Louisville KY 7 7 7 8 8 7Memphis TN 4 5 6 8 8 7Miami/Dade County FL 5 5 5 6 6 6Milwaukee WI 2 2 2 3 3 5Minneapolis MN 2 2 3 4 4 6Mobile, AL 4 4 5 7 8 7Nashville TN 4 4 5 6 8 9New Orleans LA 3 3 3 3 3 3

New York City NY 7 8 8 8 8 8Newport News/Norfolk/Hampton Roads VA 3 3 4 4 5 4North New Jersey 5 5 6 7 7 7Oakland/East Bay CA 5 6 7 7 7 7Oklahoma City OK 5 5 5 5 5 6Omaha NE 2 2 4 5 6 6Orange County CA 6 6 6 7 8 8Orlando FL 5 5 5 5 5 5Philadelphia PA 5 5 7 7 7 7Phoenix AZ 2 2 3 4 4 6Pittsburgh PA 7 7 8 9 9 9Portland, OR 4 4 5 6 6 6Raleigh/Durham NC 3 3 3 3 3 8Sacramento CA 2 3 3 3 4 5

Salt Lake City UT 3 4 4 5 5 5San Antonio TX 4 5 5 6 6 7San Diego CA 6 7 8 8 8 8San Francisco CA 5 6 7 8 8 8San Jose/South Bay CA 5 6 6 7 7 6Santa Barbara CA 6 7 8 8 8 8Seattle CA 3 4 6 7 7 8St. Louis MO 3 5 6 7 7 7Tampa/St. Petersburg FL 6 6 6 6 6 6Tucson AZ 2 2 3 3 3 4Tulsa OK 6 6 6 7 7 6Washington, DC 6 6 7 8 8 9

NATIONAL AVERAGE 4 5 6 6 7 7

* 1 = Lowest retail demand, 10 = Highest retail demand


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Specialty Centers

DateInventory Vacancy 3Q 2011 Net

Absorption Deliveries

Under Const

SF

Quoted

RatesTotal GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac %

2011 3q 87,764,617 6,412,525 6,469,262 7.4% 147,970 0 863,334 $14.39

2011 2q 87,764,617 6,562,495 6,617,232 7.5% 606,974 7,780 212,889 $14.84

2011 1q 87,756,837 7,162,106 7,216,426 8.2% 123,388 142,065 220,669 $14.98

2010 4q 87,614,772 6,998,929 7,197,749 8.2% 186,970 648,990 156,840 $14.68

2010 3q 86,965,782 6,523,359 6,735,729 7.7% 55,064 9,459 791,055 $17.17

2010 2q 86,956,323 6,565,344 6,781,334 7.8% 191,440 54,874 800,514 $17.15

2010 1q 86,901,449 6,701,910 6,917,900 8.0% (257,772) 148,360 855,388 $17.22

2009 4q 86,753,089 6,406,020 6,511,768 7.5% (213,188) 84,285 533,234 $17.71

2009 3q 86,668,804 6,112,951 6,214,295 7.2% 1,556 8,400 617,519 $18.67

2009 2q 86,660,404 6,048,762 6,207,451 7.2% (133,483) 140,274 98,764 $17.93

2009 1q 86,520,130 5,761,382 5,933,694 6.9% (298,452) 148,411 229,753 $17.55

2008 4q 86,371,719 5,338,266 5,486,831 6.4% 1,264,252 1,492,285 369,764 $17.86

2008 3q 84,879,434 5,167,803 5,258,798 6.2% 209,989 157,105 1,862,049 $17.46

2008 2q 84,722,329 5,210,941 5,311,682 6.3% 671,447 917,490 1,968,711 $17.57

2008 1q 83,804,839 4,983,784 5,065,639 6.0% (256,151) 430,158 2,074,423 $17.79

2007 80,933,086 4,000,106 4,114,779 5.1% 3,768,129 4,292,567 2,027,336 $23.74

2006 76,640,519 3,540,868 3,590,341 4.7% 2,160,781 3,470,922 4,368,537 $19.58

and entertainment centers, and outlet centers. Thanks in largepart to the performance of outlet centers; it is one of the strongersegments of the retail market. That being said, lifestyle centersare also performing well and are making a bit of a comebackafter having been overdeveloped at the peak of the last realestate cycle. This quarter marks the second consecutive quarterin which vacancy levels have declined. Last quarter vacancystood at 7.5%. Vacancy had peaked during the first quarter ofthis year at 8.2%.

Specialty centers absorbed nearly 148,000 square feet of spaceduring the third quarter. Year-to-date absorption now standsat 878,000 square feet. These are modest totals compared topre-recession averages. The market recorded nearly 3.8 millionsquare feet of occupancy growth in 2007 at the peak of thelast cycle.

Like every other shopping center type, performance has beenbifurcated by class. Class A centers in every market, eventhose with the highest overall vacancy levels, have performedstrongly this year and are typically averaging vacancy levelsof 5% or less. Class B centers have performed well in all butthe weakest markets and are typically averaging vacancy levelsin core markets of 10% or less. Class C centers continue to

struggle everywhere. Specialty centers overall have performedwell because the national inventory of specialty centersoverwhelmingly consists of Class A and B product.

Community, Neighborhood & Strip Update

Vacancy levels for community, neighborhood and strip centersfell from 11.0% to 10.9% during the third quarter. This is thelargest segment of the shopping center market that we track,accounting for over 3.3 billion square feet of the over five billionsquare feet of space that we track. This is also where we seethe greatest variances in terms of individual shopping centerperformance. Bifurcation by class is the overriding trend in themarketplace. Strip centers almost universally fall into the ClassC category and continue to struggle because their bread-and-

butter tenant base, mom-and-pop retailers, remain missing inaction. Mom-and-pop retailers will not be back in any significannumbers until the nations housing market begins to recoverhome equity loans are usually the initial line of funding fostartups and family-owned businesses. That being said, ClassA neighborhood and community centers are doing well in nearlyevery major U.S. market. Though the bankruptcy of Blockbustelargely impacted drug and grocery-store anchored shoppingcenters, much of this space was situated in Class A and B

centers and has been generating significant touring and leasingactivity. Neighborhood and community centers, meanwhilewere largely spared the impact of Borders liquidation. Borderstypically utilized space at power/regional centers.

Community, neighborhood and strip centers accounted foover 5.1 million square feet of occupancy growth during thethird quarter. Year-to-date net absorption now stands above 7.9million square feet. These numbers should improve over thefinal quarter of 2011. Leasing activity continues to be driven bystrong activity from fast casual dining concepts; meanwhile, mosof the pending closures that we are aware of will inordinatelyimpact malls and power/regional centers. That being said, theimprovement will continue to be limited to the strongest centers

Power Centers UpdateVacancy for power/regional centers crept up slightly during thethird quarter from 6.9% to 7.0%. Though deliveries accountedfor only 1.2 million square feet of space this quarter, thisnumber outpaced occupancy growth. Roughly 369,000square feet of space was absorbed this quarter. This productype took the biggest hit with Borders liquidation. Weestimate that over nine million square feet of the 12 millionthat Borders returned to the marketplace was at powerregional centers. Despite this, this product type has continuedto record modest occupancy growth this year. Year-todate net absorption now stands at just under two millionsquare feet.


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Shopping Centers (includes Community, Neighborhood & Strip)


Absorption

Deliveries

Under Const

SF

Quoted


2011 3q 3,363,644,082 354,756,692 366,000,610 10.9% 5,120,213 1,823,512 5,013,856 $14.8

2011 2q 3,361,820,570 356,915,294 369,297,311 11.0% 1,469,071 1,846,848 5,845,647 $14.9

2011 1q 3,359,973,722 356,423,914 368,919,534 11.0% 1,412,628 3,314,709 5,822,283 $15.0

2010 4q 3,356,659,013 355,024,488 367,017,453 10.9% 6,027,130 3,246,433 7,380,312 $15.1

2010 3q 3,353,412,580 357,047,928 369,798,150 11.0% 4,131,556 1,952,330 9,384,297 $15.2

2010 2q 3,351,460,250 358,351,261 371,977,376 11.1% 3,657,120 2,468,001 9,398,868 $15.4

2010 1q 3,348,992,249 358,647,936 373,166,495 11.1% (1,311,327) 3,114,267 8,676,141 $15.6

2009 4q 3,345,877,982 353,406,020 368,740,901 11.0% 961,778 5,341,234 8,408,358 $15.9

2009 3q 3,340,817,952 349,267,530 364,366,145 10.9% (3,992,052) 6,678,180 11,719,805 $16.3

2009 2q 3,334,139,772 338,025,242 353,695,913 10.6% (7,166,269) 8,290,753 15,870,038 $16.4

2009 1q 3,325,849,019 321,758,610 338,238,891 10.2% (8,533,004) 11,989,733 20,232,749 $16.7

2008 4q 3,313,859,286 304,189,591 317,716,154 9.6% 2,591,187 15,799,957 26,985,023 $16.9

2008 3q 3,298,059,329 293,273,864 304,507,384 9.2% 8,129,957 15,340,200 36,838,021 $16.9

2008 2q 3,282,719,129 285,416,884 297,297,141 9.1% 3,195,660 12,712,514 42,431,561 $16.8

2008 1q 3,270,006,615 276,081,185 287,780,287 8.8% 14,784,959 26,718,629 43,532,881 $16.7

2007 3,260,690,895 265,173,809 277,102,762 8.5% 53,679,374 76,775,499 57,581,800 $16.6

2006 3,183,915,396 242,552,616 254,006,637 8.0% 28,601,389 79,841,937 65,730,770 $15.84

Power/regional centers are continuing to show strong leasingactivity for junior box space, however, also are seeing challengesfrom continued closures. We expect continued slow growthahead. Though we expect vacancy to continue to trenddownward, these decreases will be measured in basisnotpercentagepoints.

Mall Update

Mall vacancy currently stands at 5.8%, up slightly from the 5.7%

mark recorded at the mid-year mark. Vacancy had stayed firmat 5.7% since the fourth quarter of last year. Despite the factthat vacancy crept upward during the third quarter, occupancygrowth remained modestly positive. The market netted nearly214,000 square feet of occupancy growth over the past threemonths. The problem is that during this same time, the marketalso experienced roughly 901,000 square feet of deliveries.Supply (new construction) outpaced demand (occupancygrowth) and so vacancy levels crept up slightly. This is despitethe fact that both new construction and occupancy growth totalswere miniscule compared to historical averages.

Though malls have been one of the strongest performingsegments of the market in terms of retailer demand and leasingactivity, they are also the segment of the market that we expectto be most impacted by the next round of retail closures. Forexample, both the planned closure of 100 Christopher & Banksand 189 Gap stores will almost exclusively impact malls. Whileluxury and discount retailers are doing well, mid-price retailers arefacing the greatest challenges. The middle-class consumer theyused to cater to has largely downscaled. Meanwhile, a numberof the retailers on our watch list are primarily mall users. Whilewe expect a strong holiday sales season, there will be more retailfailures in 2012. And many of these will include concepts that aremall-based. Looking forward, we expect vacancy levels to stayat or near current levels, but any movement will be up. The goodnews for mall landlords is that they remain at the top of the list formost expanding concepts.

Geographic Updates

Of the five markets that we track in the Northeast United Statesonly oneBostonrecorded declining vacancy levels. Vacancyfor Philadelphia remained flat, while New York, Northern NewJersey and Pittsburgh saw slight increases. Despite this, retademand in all of these markets remains high. Urban retail demandremains particularly high in Boston, New York, Philadelphiaand Pittsburgh.

Within the South Atlantic region, eight of the 12 markets that wetrackCharlotte, Hampton Roads, Jacksonville, Miami, OrlandoRichmond, Tampa and Washington DCrecorded decliningvacancy levels. Demand and leasing activity remain strong inthe greater Washington DC/Virginia/Maryland markets despitethe fact that Baltimore was one of the markets where we sawvacancy tick up during the third quarter. Activity also appearto be on the rise for most of Floridas retail markets. AtlantaBaltimore, Charleston and Raleigh all recorded increasedvacancy in the third quarter, but in most cases these increaseswere nominal.

We track five markets in the East South Central region. Three othese marketsBirmingham, Mobile and Nashvilleregisteredvacancy declines. Only Louisville saw an increase in vacancywhile occupancy remained flat in Memphis.

We track eight markets in the West South Central region. FivemarketsAustin, Houston, Little Rock, New Orleans and Tulsarecorded vacancy declines this quarter. Houston led the waywith over 860,000 square feet of occupancy growth. Occupancylevels remained flat in the Oklahoma City metro. Both the Dallasand San Antonio metros recorded modest increases in vacancy

We track six markets in the East North Central region. All butwo recorded decreased vacancy in the third quarter. ChicagoCleveland, Indianapolis and Milwaukee all saw vacancy levelscreep downward. Chicago leads all other markets in terms ooccupancy growth with over 1.2 million square feet. Cincinnatand Detroit both saw vacancy levels creep up slightly.


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Power Center


Absorption

Deliveries

Under Const

SF

Quoted


2011 3q 607,588,728 40,219,833 42,676,733 7.0% 368,995 1,230,066 1,749,358 $17.20

2011 2q 606,358,662 39,268,341 41,815,662 6.9% 466,026 99,069 2,396,424 $17.44

2011 1q 606,259,593 39,745,698 42,182,619 7.0% 1,150,718 1,026,894 2,081,001 $18.12

2010 4q 605,232,699 39,802,055 42,306,443 7.0% 1,974,877 527,144 2,666,505 $17.70

2010 3q 604,705,555 40,909,227 43,754,176 7.2% 2,781,764 764,333 2,055,893 $17.74

2010 2q 603,941,222 42,682,726 45,771,607 7.6% 2,458,371 945,159 2,200,177 $17.85

2010 1q 602,996,063 43,800,226 47,284,819 7.8% 1,505,714 929,830 2,771,823 $18.6

2009 4q 602,066,233 43,970,755 47,860,703 7.9% 1,802,969 2,534,658 2,981,972 $18.8

2009 3q 599,531,575 43,108,787 47,129,014 7.9% 3,125,217 3,588,005 4,989,995 $19.33

2009 2q 595,943,570 42,178,628 46,666,226 7.8% (276,669) 2,127,700 7,523,400 $19.4

2009 1q 593,815,870 38,808,866 44,261,857 7.5% (1,612,958) 5,441,879 8,748,090 $19.66

2008 4q 588,373,991 32,742,146 37,207,020 6.3% 2,294,937 7,955,799 12,534,470 $20.36

2008 3q 580,418,192 30,220,658 31,546,158 5.4% 6,904,281 7,538,670 17,751,789 $20.47

2008 2q 572,879,522 29,528,204 30,911,769 5.4% 3,528,834 4,863,233 22,875,947 $20.44

2008 1q 568,016,289 28,257,703 29,577,370 5.2% 9,389,509 11,583,802 23,824,569 $20.28

2007 560,836,359 25,743,435 26,625,776 4.7% 28,110,915 27,482,450 28,090,981 $20.10

2006 533,353,909 26,143,520 27,254,241 5.1% 17,760,484 24,853,935 27,424,184 $19.38

In the West North Central region we track five markets. St.Louis and Kansas City both saw vacancy retreat during the thirdquarter. Omahas occupancy levels remained flat this quarter.Both the Des Moines and Minneapolis markets saw vacancylevels creep up by a basis point.

We track seven markets in the Mountain region. Performance here

was evenly mixed; three markets improved, three markets declined

and one remained flat. Vacancy decreased in the Denver, Reno

and Salt Lake City markets. Denver led the way for occupancy

growth and has recorded over 1.2 million square feet of absorptionso far this year. Las Vegas remained flat at 13.4% vacancy. The

Albuquerque, Phoenix and Tucson markets all saw increased

vacancy levels.

We track 12 markets in the Pacific region. Seven of these markets

recorded increased vacancy levels this quarter. Vacancy improved

in the Inland Empire, Oakland/East Bay, San Diego, San Jose/South Bay and Seattle markets. Vacancy increased in Hawaii, Los

Angeles, Orange County, Portland, Sacramento, San Franciscoand Santa Barbara

Malls


Absorption

Deliveries

Under Const

SF

Quoted


2011 3q 1,010,204,462 56,115,625 58,189,133 5.8% 213,883 900,609 4,269,353 $19.0

2011 2q 1,009,303,853 54,871,501 57,502,407 5.7% 790,818 1,196,541 5,077,423 $19.4

2011 1q 1,008,107,312 54,701,754 57,096,684 5.7% 712,694 219,266 5,077,956 $19.9

2010 4q 1,007,888,046 55,164,011 57,590,112 5.7% 2,628,614 349,880 4,956,562 $19.7

2010 3q 1,007,538,166 57,532,913 59,868,846 5.9% 1,371,644 684,039 4,871,683 $19.8

2010 2q 1,006,854,127 57,959,196 60,556,451 6.0% 1,420,826 2,148,147 5,164,191 $20.1

2010 1q 1,004,705,980 57,147,183 59,829,130 6.0% 782,540 1,442,774 7,082,328 $20.2

2009 4q 1,003,263,206 56,290,632 59,168,896 5.9% 2,615,898 3,466,354 7,936,984 $20.7

2009 3q 999,796,852 55,404,329 58,318,440 5.8% 2,345,781 5,405,500 10,072,545 $20.8

2009 2q 994,391,352 52,442,713 55,258,721 5.6% (888,096) 1,496,559 14,693,345 $21.6

2009 1q 992,894,793 48,690,544 52,874,066 5.3% (4,930,654) 3,807,430 14,935,158 $23.8

2008 4q 989,087,363 41,524,972 44,135,982 4.5% 1,221,329 7,042,056 16,433,793 $23.5

2008 3q 982,045,307 37,062,163 38,315,255 3.9% 4,503,254 5,600,116 20,998,985 $23.0

2008 2q 976,445,191 36,156,812 37,218,393 3.8% 1,722,065 5,308,590 24,901,098 $22.8

2008 1q 971,136,601 32,479,485 33,631,868 3.5% 6,505,840 8,880,421 25,732,041 $22.6

2007 929,237,854 28,963,387 29,847,789 3.2% 26,988,704 27,964,329 28,224,224 $23.0

2006 901,273,525 28,033,592 28,872,164 3.2% 11,348,473 22,713,048 28,214,175 $25.2


9/31



Boston MAExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote

Rates# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac %

2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 6 1,619,941 15,794 15,794 1.0% 0.5% 4.6% 2,389 0 0 $21.4

Shopping Centers 1,619 85,582,567 5,770,826 6,054,988 7.1% 7.0% 7.6% 444,862 263,145 50,900 $15.3

Power Centers 37 15,741,807 685,522 689,122 4.4% 4.9% 4.4% 733,395 600,000 240,000 $11.6

Malls 36 27,359,618 966,399 971,665 3.6% 3.4% 2.9% (180,467) 0 0 $26.9

All Non-FreestandingRetail

1,698 130,303,933 7,438,541 7,731,569 5.9% 6.0% 6.2% 1,000,179 863,145 290,900

Northeast U.S. - New England

New York City

NY

Existing Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quoted


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 2 331,000 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 N/

Shopping Centers 7 949,808 33,443 33,443 3.5% 0.9% 0.7% (21,446) 0 0 N/

Power Centers 2 833,680 16,135 16,135 1.9% 1.9% 0.8% 4,196 0 0 N/

Malls 1 493,000 36,866 36,866 7.5% 6.9% 0.0% (2,674) 0 0 N/


12 2,607,488 86,444 86,444 3.3% 2.3% 1.9% (19,924) 0 0

Northern

New Jersey


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quoted


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 13 3,070,018 123,301 123,301 4.0% 4.3% 2.6% (14,929) 0 0 $23.7

Shopping Centers 1,792 90,773,327 8,651,593 8,860,454 9.8% 9.4% 8.5% (590,243) 266,593 222,000 $20.0

Power Centers 58 20,997,279 1,380,076 1,510,331 7.2% 6.0% 5.4% 57,251 339,689 0 $22.0

Malls 44 40,033,427 926,001 937,747 2.3% 2.4% 2.1% 52,254 0 0 $32.6


1,907 154,874,051 11,080,971 11,431,833 7.4% 7.1% 6.7% (495,667) 606,282 222,000

Philadelphia

PA


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010



Power Centers 85 36,476,257 2,042,862 2,045,862 5.6% 5.3% 6.5% 506,055 250,970 74,492 $15.0

Malls 64 51,657,997 1,766,879 2,178,078 4.2% 4.7% 5.1% 71,535 134,583 1,370,861 $22.4


2,444 240,542,046 18,023,569 18,930,257 7.9% 7.9% 8.0% 696,802 1,098,488 1,811,897

Pittsburgh PAExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 1 190,230 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0 0 0 N

Shopping Centers 531 31,940,767 2,067,611 2,171,659 6.8% 7.0% 8.0% 398,755 6,800 150,000 $11.2

Power Centers 29 11,889,383 697,514 697,514 5.9% 5.5% 5.9% (17,914) 0 0 $15.4

Malls 21 18,513,563 1,233,214 1,265,158 6.8% 6.5% 6.5% (27,488) 124,829 8,500 $15.8


582 62,533,943 3,998,339 4,134,331 6.6% 6.5% 6.9% 353,353 131,629 158,500

Northeast U.S. - Middle Atlantic


10/31



Atlanta GAExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote

Rate# Blds Total GLA Direct SF Total SF Vac %

2Q

2011

3Q

2010



Power Centers 65 27,287,943 2,627,737 2,683,938 9.8% 8.5% 8.7% (534,957) 0 0 $14.5

Malls 41 35,838,707 2,049,837 2,066,067 5.8% 6.2% 6.0% (172,594) 0 0 $20.4


3,233 205,122,635 25,466,158 26,139,739 12.7% 12.6% 12.5% (874,479) 11,400 447,075

South U.S. - South Atlantic

Baltimore MDExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quoted


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 2 261,838 3,030 3,030 1.2% 0.0% 8.3% 0 0 0 N/

Shopping Centers 796 45,662,037 3,594,639 3,753,847 8.2% 7.6% 8.6% (155,625) 36,459 13,610 $18.5Power Centers 22 9,015,188 480,820 541,010 6.0% 6.7% 7.5% 13,117 63,000 0 $19.0

Malls 24 18,743,645 1,642,604 1,647,129 8.8% 7.5% 7.7% 72,391 1 9,419 589,000 $26.2


844 73,682,708 5,721,093 5,945,016 8.1% 7.4% 8.1% (70,117) 118,878 602,610

Charleston SCExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quoted


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 2 576,075 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 $23.7


Power Centers 4 1,376,537 150,389 150,389 10.9% 6.3% 5.6% (32,733) 0 0 $13.6

Malls 3 2,499,265 27,765 29,034 1.2% 1.5% 6.7% 51,490 0 0 $20.5


293 17,672,088 1,534,941 1,576,199 8.9% 8.1% 8.1% 165,365 46,560 5,400

Charlotte NCExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010



Power Centers 20 8,327,101 289,042 317,602 3.8% 5.2% 5.6% 40,748 0 0 $20.9

Malls 32 19,572,713 1,878,041 1,898,985 9.7% 9.0% 11.7% 81,033 0 0 $18.2

All Non-FreestandingRetail 1,136 80,041,645 7,956,947 8,158,494 10.2% 10.5% 11.2% 384,226 73,652 79,102

Hampton

Roads VA


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 4 1,101,386 80,034 80,034 7.3% 7.3% 1.2% 0 0 0 $33.4


Power Centers 16 5,946,923 179,967 179,967 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% (12,826) 12,192 0 $17.5

Malls 14 10,861,822 400,618 401,428 3.7% 3.8% 5.1% 27,486 0 0 $18.9


890 59,158,400 5,012,725 5,024,094 8.5% 8.6% 8.8% 217,597 139,101 119,000


11/31



South U.S. - South Atlantic cont.

Jacksonville

FL


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quoted


2Q

2011

3Q

2010Specialty Centers 3 647,973 5,585 5,585 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 1,050 0 0 $15.5


Power Centers 6 2,364,897 460,545 460,545 19.5% 19.2% 16.7% (45,245) 0 0 $11.4

Malls 10 7,574,259 335,383 378,943 5.0% 5.6% 5.2% (20,590) 0 0 $16.6


769 46,861,231 5,258,354 5,352,792 11.4% 11.5% 11.7% 197,347 61,752 5,000

Miami FLExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quoted


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 7 943,056 87,631 87,631 9.3% 9.5% 10.6% 2,638 0 0 $30.9


Power Centers 8 3,118,113 47,707 47,707 1.5% 2.4% 4.8% 55,354 0 0 $39.7

Malls 19 16,162,636 528,066 538,635 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% (6,473) 0 0 $30.4


1,362 65,104,799 3,304,125 3,340,424 5.1% 5.3% 5.8% 353,858 55,561 58,780

Orlando FLExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010



Power Centers 23 9,507,915 721,885 733,681 7.7% 7.8% 8.7% 162,313 27,255 0 $16.3

Malls 25 17,801,082 867,368 867,368 4.9% 4.5% 4.3% 22,312 4,034 0 $23.0


1,375 94,846,128 9,124,502 9,191,777 9.7% 9.9% 9.9% 314,123 130,872 52,703

Raleigh NCExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 6 1,211,123 35,000 35,000 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 0 0 0 $18.0


Power Centers 21 8,324,800 517,461 547,643 6.6% 6.4% 5.7% 89,980 15,600 706,300 $15.6

Malls 15 10,474,532 278,244 278,244 2.7% 3.1% 3.2% 41,245 0 0 $22.4

All Non-FreestandingRetail 567 57,466,960 4,305,126 4,371,615 7.6% 7.3% 7.5% 594,023 466,960 747,100

Richmond VAExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 1 54,528 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0 0 0 $25.0


Power Centers 9 3,184,551 84,465 94,465 3.0% 1.5% 3.7% 45,728 1,430 0 $14.5

Malls 13 9,221,366 303,614 306,693 3.3% 4.3% 7.1% 97,520 9,302 175,365 $20.0


572 41,767,181 3,575,044 3,630,319 8.7% 8.8% 9.3% 296,948 108,104 213,587


12/31



South U.S. - South Atlantic cont.

Tampa FLExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 4 684,769 102,613 102,613 15.0% 7.9% 8.2% (8,875) 0 0 $14.4


Power Centers 28 9,759,152 645,669 645,669 6.6% 7.4% 7.7% 19,461 0 0 $17.2

Malls 21 16,910,133 654,906 663,298 3.9% 4.1% 4.0% 32,373 0 0 $24.2


2,070 114,134,429 10,633,154 10,988,479 9.6% 9.7% 9.4% 306,120 139,181 50,932

Washington

DC


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 10 1,523,520 37,659 38,919 2.6% 1.4% 2.2% (15,525) 0 0 N


Power Centers 33 16,101,461 465,581 479,760 3.0% 3.8% 3.5% (57,170) 0 40,670 $24.6

Malls 53 41,672,269 1,113,909 1,157,124 2.8% 2.6% 4.0% 645,902 750,553 0 $26.0


1,358 141,469,543 7,413,012 7,756,820 5.5% 5.6% 6.2% 781,284 1,009,861 109,043

Birmingham

AL


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010


Shopping Centers 574 26,595,014 3,726,545 3,811,225 14.3% 14.0% 13.4% 14,511 75,500 0 $9.2

Power Centers 14 5,998,835 213,032 294,889 4.9% 6.0% 6.2% 109,063 0 35,000 $15.7

Malls 12 6,950,615 1,273,800 1,292,600 18.6% 20.6% 17.6% 2,291 0 0 $16.5


606 41,285,265 5,604,333 5,794,108 14.0% 14.2% 13.8% 146,739 75,500 35,000

Louisville KYExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quoted


2Q

2011

3Q

2010



Power Centers 5 2,438,016 124,877 153,366 6.3% 6.8% 10.4% 30,093 0 0 $19.5

Malls 6 6,590,433 79,282 157,782 2.4% 2.4% 3.1% 13,573 0 0 $7.2


517 38,230,684 3,695,152 3,885,005 10.2% 10.0% 10.5% 329,063 28,905 10,400

South U.S. - East South Central

Memphis TNExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010


Shopping Centers 779 30,634,050 3,817,890 3,904,293 12.7% 12.8% 12.7% 33,349 313 8,786 $10.7

Power Centers 16 6,741,909 762,891 849,294 12.6% 12.3% 15.3% 159,284 183,164 0 $8.9

Malls 7 5,803,400 784,889 818,776 14.1% 14.4% 8.8% (44,646) 0 0 $3.6


808 44,359,295 5,680,446 5,887,139 13.3% 13.3% 13.5% 141,439 183,477 8,786


13/31



South U.S. - East South Central cont.

Mobile ALExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quoted


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 2 559,860 1,600 1,600 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0 0 0 $24.0

Shopping Centers 239 9,237,008 966,605 1,054,011 11.4% 11.9% 12.1% 114,845 21,548 0 $12.0

Power Centers 3 1,474,274 48,930 48,930 3.3% 9.3% 10.9% 8,651 0 0 $18.2

Malls 5 3,805,666 301,795 349,029 9.2% 9.8% 10.4% 84,225 0 0 $22.8


249 15,076,808 1,318,930 1,453,570 9.6% 10.7% 11.1% 207,721 21,548 0

Nashville TNExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quoted


2Q

2011

3Q

2010



Power Centers 16 6,218,548 293,080 295,947 4.8% 4.8% 3.2% (75,109) 0 0 $18.4

Malls 13 10,880,415 914,059 914,059 8.4% 8.6% 11.5% 208,390 149,000 0 $24.4


683 48,067,579 4,365,526 4,500,606 9.4% 9.5% 9.7% 241,262 154,724 0

Austin TXExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 5 1,500,509 105,643 105,643 7.0% 6.9% 8.0% 13,660 0 72,889 $24.7

Shopping Centers 562 26,392,190 2,825,723 2,883,403 10.9% 11.4% 10.7% (41,073) 30,468 66,050 $17.8

Power Centers 21 10,103,709 372,284 406,775 4.0% 4.5% 5.4% (4,171) 5,700 0 $18.5

Malls 11 7,867,328 158,597 164,797 2.1% 1.9% 3.5% 75,520 0 0 $20.2


599 45,863,736 3,462,247 3,560,618 7.8% 8.3% 7.9% 43,936 36,168 138,939

South U.S. - West South Central

Houston TXExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010



Power Centers 46 18,677,841 1,044,351 1,138,683 6.1% 5.7% 5.6% 67,710 9,600 16,912 $15.7

Malls 45 35,990,638 2,642,780 2,721,319 7.6% 6.8% 7.0% 59,852 0 0 $22.8


3,612 205,950,656 18,075,409 18,557,103 9.0% 9.1% 9.4% 860,501 455,541 211,150

Dallas TXExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 19 2,521,029 189,695 189,695 7.5% 1.1% 5.6% 35,149 0 90,000 $12.

Shopping Centers 3,424 149,109,638 20,735,593 21,264,425 14.3% 13.9% 13.3% 164,424 282,254 493,918 $13.

Power Centers 69 26,517,330 2,236,237 2,298,580 8.7% 7.0% 7.7% 228,696 581,451 138,452 $18.

Malls 43 38,107,100 2,305,351 2,309,911 6.1% 6.9% 7.1% 114,485 103,714 3,530 $21.


3,555 216,255,097 25,466,876 26,062,611 12.1% 11.8% 11.2% 542,754 967,419 725,900


14/31



South U.S. - West South Central cont.

Little Rock ARExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quoted


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 N/

Shopping Centers 428 14,952,262 1,223,510 1,225,510 8.2% 8.6% 8.3% 8,675 0 0 $9.6

Power Centers 6 2,782,688 194,658 194,658 7.0% 7.5% 12.3% 261,096 180,000 0 $14.7

Malls 8 2,841,392 86,011 86,011 3.0% 2.3% 2.4% (6,050) 0 0 $8.4


442 20,576,342 1,504,179 1,506,179 7.3% 7.6% 7.4% 263,721 180,000 0

New Orleans

LA


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quoted


2Q

2011

3Q

2010


Shopping Centers 360 17,911,987 1,875,490 1,908,594 10.7% 11.3% 11.0% 16,383 21,219 9,315 $13.0Power Centers 3 1,469,160 40,498 40,498 2.8% 5.0% 4.6% 29,890 0 0 $22.0

Malls 11 7,872,226 364,329 369,437 4.7% 6.6% 5.9% 96,668 17,542 0 $6.7


377 27,631,134 2,355,391 2,398,603 8.7% 9.7% 9.8% 122,330 38,761 9,315

Tulsa OKExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010



Power Centers 4 2,024,794 143,847 143,847 7.1% 7.0% 6.7% 9,403 0 0 $6.9

Malls 10 6,478,835 253,496 288,696 4.5% 5.0% 6.0% (2,090) 0 0 $11.0


671 31,761,313 2,887,376 2,968,346 9.3% 9.4% 9.2% 201,030 6,525 0

Oklahoma City

OK


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010



Power Centers 10 4,083,986 151,841 191,617 4.7% 4.6% 2.4% (57,065) 0 0 $14.4

Malls 10 5,927,671 997,018 1,190,017 20.1% 15.8% 17.8% (12,753) 0 8,000 $16.6


800 37,423,637 4,045,462 4,350,974 11.6% 11.6% 11.3% 31,866 56,320 20,736

San Antonio

TX


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010



Power Centers 13 6,155,616 761,504 769,438 12.5% 10.8% 8.0% (115,950) 50,056 0 $22.8

Malls 16 14,665,672 554,389 607,425 4.1% 3.5% 3.0% (76,605) 0 0 $15.4


1,238 63,907,181 5,619,776 5,884,888 9.2% 9.0% 8.9% 81,420 332,436 334,248


15/31



Chicago ILExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010



Power Centers 75 33,213,523 2,238,379 2,371,374 7.1% 7.2% 10.4% 821,832 0 0 $17.0

Malls 45 41,123,885 1,463,354 1,546,723 3.8% 3.6% 3.0% 155,258 0 0 $23.3


3,916 238,329,756 23,012,273 23,359,170 9.8% 10.0% 10.3% 1,229,118 80,004 196,045

Midwest U.S. - East North Central

Cincinnati OHExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quoted


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 5 768,846 75,062 75,062 9.8% 9.7% 9.9% (11,800) 0 0 N/

Shopping Centers 763 34,863,005 4,841,771 5,051,736 14.5% 14.0% 13.0% 278,876 214,000 0 $10.8Power Centers 17 7,030,676 755,219 779,719 11.1% 11.1% 14.2% 164,331 134,500 0 $12.3

Malls 15 11,486,375 1,071,715 1,256,715 10.9% 11.3% 7.5% 55,693 0 0 $11.0


800 54,148,902 6,743,767 7,163,232 13.2% 13.0% 12.7% 487,100 348,500 0

Cleveland OHExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quoted


2Q

2011

3Q

2010


Shopping Centers 981 48,073,881 5,805,678 6,457,353 13.4% 13.7% 12.5% (177,235) 20,966 0 $11.1

Power Centers 29 13,233,859 1,163,158 1,163,158 8.8% 8.2% 8.0% (88,406) 18,352 0 $14.6

Malls 18 17,387,824 2,479,153 2,479,943 14.3% 15.9% 18.4% (13,724) 0 30,000 $9.5


1,037 82,359,020 9,522,340 10,174,805 12.4% 12.6% 12.2% 342,857 39,318 30,000

Detroit MIExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010



Power Centers 45 18,477,431 1,132,255 1,249,794 6.8% 7.1% 6.7% (93,396) 0 0 $13.6

Malls 25 25,327,675 2,002,331 2,027,954 8.0% 5.8% 3.9% (85,127) 0 0 $11.4


1,812 115,671,258 13,844,862 14,356,230 12.4% 12.0% 12.3% (28,947) 47,368 42,000


16/31



Milwaukee WIExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010


Shopping Centers 698 33,946,669 3,882,830 4,034,279 11.9% 12.8% 11.3% 116,195 9,140 42,190 $11.7Power Centers 11 3,957,537 316,098 369,994 9.3% 9.0% 8.8% (3,013) 0 0 $16.7

Malls 12 8,682,997 1,199,444 1,199,444 13.8% 13.6% 13.6% (49,003) 0 0 $8.7


724 47,018,109 5,417,810 5,623,155 12.0% 12.5% 12.0% 77,079 9,140 42,190

Midwest U.S. - East North Central cont.

Des Moines IAExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010


Shopping Centers 233 10,524,063 925,318 937,723 8.9% 9.3% 9.7% 103,103 0 0 $11.7Power Centers 2 944,503 74,525 74,525 7.9% 5.1% 6.0% (23,566) 0 0 $11.3

Malls 8 5,570,389 308,680 308,680 5.5% 5.2% 5.2% (28,296) 0 0 $15.1


244 17,227,836 1,310,523 1,322,928 7.7% 7.6% 7.5% 51,441 0 0

Kansas City

MO


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010



Power Centers 21 9,190,917 594,037 594,037 6.5% 6.7% 5.5% 28,192 23,171 33,272 $17.5

Malls 15 12,062,181 593,840 744,218 6.2% 6.6% 7.9% 93,959 14,440 0 $24.2


712 62,032,806 6,459,753 6,940,208 11.2% 11.6% 11.9% 284,321 82,611 33,272

Midwest U.S. - West North Central

Indianapolis

IN


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010Specialty Centers 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 N

Shopping Centers 813 39,450,465 4,596,377 4,774,700 12.1% 12.6% 13.2% (45,841) 9,000 0 $11.8

Power Centers 24 10,295,370 730,209 784,473 7.6% 8.7% 7.7% (100,820) 0 0 $16.0

Malls 16 14,449,006 940,408 949,841 6.6% 6.1% 5.6% (191,810) 0 0 $15.8


853 64,194,841 6,266,994 6,509,014 10.1% 10.5% 10.8% (338,471) 9,000 0


17/31



St. Louis MOExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010



Power Centers 24 9,391,265 822,578 839,991 8.9% 7.1% 7.0% (243,256) 0 11,500 $13.3

Malls 21 19,647,828 1,732,118 1,732,118 8.8% 10.5% 9.6% (75,754) 0 0 $15.9All Non-FreestandingRetail

1,171 84,316,344 8,306,013 8,395,281 10.0% 10.3% 10.7% (233,421) 26,225 247,030

Midwest U.S. - West North Central cont.

Minneapolis

MN


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010Specialty Centers 7 1,419,830 38,367 62,930 4.4% 5.1% 5.0% 10,002 0 0 $18.6


Power Centers 27 10,777,637 475,992 488,492 4.5% 4.5% 2.5% (113,655) 0 0 $16.8

Malls 20 18,278,841 568,290 630,763 3.5% 3.0% 5.6% 616,279 0 26,000 $18.6


1,343 84,126,012 6,300,627 6,514,511 7.7% 7.6% 7.6% 393,107 190,219 36,900

Omaha NEExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 1 197,863 63,000 63,000 31.8% 31.8% 31.8% 0 0 0 N/

Shopping Centers 364 16,585,975 2,119,586 2,160,213 13.0% 13.2% 12.6% (37,107) 8,127 0 $10.5Power Centers 9 3,620,381 321,232 321,232 8.9% 8.3% 7.2% 5,416 26,380 5,328 $13.8

Malls 8 5,332,968 184,212 184,212 3.5% 3.6% 4.6% (1,415) 0 9,816 $7.5


382 25,737,187 2,688,030 2,728,657 10.6% 10.6% 10.8% (33,106) 34,507 15,144


18/31



Albuquerque

NM


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 N


Power Centers 6 2,259,500 247,858 265,694 11.8% 12.9% 11.0% 18,980 6,000 0 $14.2

Malls 4 3,393,656 235,501 235,501 6.9% 7.8% 8.4% 6,690 0 0 $28.0


359 23,299,170 2,581,422 2,643,463 11.3% 10.8% 10.7% (16,936) 92,275 69,330

West U.S. - Mountain

Denver COExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010


Shopping Centers 1,348 69,947,480 6,686,848 6,746,631 9.6% 10.1% 10.3% 1,150,394 468,734 140,411 $13.8Power Centers 44 18,707,059 1,075,899 1,149,380 6.1% 7.6% 7.5% 62,603 0 31,100 $17.4

Malls 23 21,142,078 1,714,500 1,820,486 8.6% 7.9% 7.0% 32,524 270,000 0 $21.3


1,420 111,193,641 9,493,894 9,733,144 8.8% 9.2% 9.5% 1,246,791 738,734 171,511

Las Vegas NVExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quoted


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 9 2,195,181 135,704 135,704 6.2% 6.3% 5.2% (811) 0 0 $18.3


Power Centers 24 10,538,083 1,175,453 1,202,053 11.4% 11.0% 7.8% (251,177) 0 0 $18.4

Malls 19 14,122,763 931,489 931,489 6.6% 7.2% 5.0% 40,731 199,528 273,750 $39.6


1,046 77,595,296 9,788,567 10,364,866 13.4% 13.4% 12.8% (607,439) 207,258 302,550

Phoenix AZExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010



Power Centers 47 20,378,390 1,705,506 1,781,969 8.7% 8.1% 9.9% (155,583) 13,739 0 $19.3

Malls 32 25,764,770 2,626,307 2,670,477 10.4% 10.3% 10.7% 220,648 134,785 0 $21.6


1,904 154,250,110 21,438,004 22,002,935 14.3% 13.9% 13.3% (590,669) 263,462 68,143

Reno NVExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010


Shopping Centers 158 9,849,328 1,241,567 1,330,577 13.5% 15.7% 15.2% 71,818 0 0 $15.7

Power Centers 4 2,004,965 357,220 358,522 17.9% 19.1% 19.4% (27,442) 0 0 $21.6

Malls 5 3,897,638 262,849 269,392 6.9% 4.5% 3.3% (33,130) 0 0 $13.6


168 15,807,931 1,889,636 1,986,491 12.6% 13.6% 14.4% 11,246 0 0


19/31



Salt Lake City

UT


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010



Power Centers 12 4,690,529 184,313 184,313 3.9% 3.0% 4.6% (12,058) 0 0 $16.8

Malls 21 13,627,463 1,118,111 1,118,111 8.2% 7.9% 8.4% (7,536) 2,225 124,000 $14.6


904 61,077,400 4,208,509 4,242,214 6.9% 7.2% 7.6% 489,832 171,331 147,740

West U.S. - Mountain cont.

Tucson AZExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010



Power Centers 9 3,063,583 268,641 268,641 8.8% 9.3% 12.5% 28,279 0 0 $22.7

Malls 6 5,018,719 434,441 434,441 8.7% 8.0% 6.9% (49,748) 0 3,280 $25.1


538 30,992,472 3,430,794 3,443,884 11.1% 10.9% 10.8% (202,363) 17,617 19,722

HawaiiExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quoted


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 5 458,746 63,721 71,535 15.6% 14.4% 16.9% 15,434 17,681 0 N/

Shopping Centers 246 17,159,205 676,793 679,375 4.0% 3.9% 4.2% (8,828) 0 0 $31.6

Power Centers 4 1,870,423 45,997 45,997 2.5% 0.1% 5.3% (44,897) 0 0 $42.6

Malls 10 8,082,542 193,319 255,412 3.2% 2.2% 1.9% (101,356) 0 0 $40.4


265 27,570,916 979,830 1,052,319 3.8% 3.3% 4.4% (139,647) 17,681 0

Inland Empire

CA


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 17 3,426,635 347,188 347,188 10.1% 10.1% 8.4% (82,456) 1,780 0 $16.2


Power Centers 40 16,308,970 1,501,885 1,546,350 9.5% 9.7% 8.1% 181,026 0 98,160 $20.4

Malls 24 19,908,650 1,120,465 1,400,241 7.0% 6.7% 5.6% (317,467) 0 0 $20.1


1,755 124,784,464 12,475,788 13,098,369 10.5% 10.8% 10.6% (157,021) 85,980 192,118

Los Angeles

CA


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 20 4,159,485 216,369 216,369 5.2% 4.4% 5.2% 149,524 142,065 0 $19.8


Power Centers 48 20,546,076 1,092,064 1,169,365 5.7% 5.3% 5.7% (18,164) 0 0 $23.4

Malls 60 47,820,931 1,540,959 1,578,245 3.3% 3.1% 4.0% 61,457 157,626 50,000 $30.1


4,347 218,824,488 12,535,658 12,942,602 5.9% 5.8% 5.9% 276,775 455,879 113,905

West U.S. - Pacific


20/31



Oakland/East

Bay CA


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 4 812,397 83,205 83,205 10.2% 11.0% 0.0% (4,866) 0 450,000 $31.9


Power Centers 17 6,762,178 191,418 312,729 4.6% 3.9% 6.5% 131,592 0 318,000 $26.0

Malls 15 12,013,927 463,993 463,993 3.9% 5.2% 6.5% (61,904) 0 18,410 $17.5


886 59,740,029 3,310,607 3,480,252 5.8% 6.0% 6.4% 370,232 4,500 816,564

West U.S. - Pacific cont.

Orange County

CA


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010


Shopping Centers 1,452 63,562,629 3,949,942 4,170,172 6.6% 6.7% 6.6% 47,839 20,222 0 $22.3Power Centers 25 9,985,076 708,410 825,248 8.3% 6.6% 7.8% (105,117) 0 0 $31.1

Malls 22 18,103,417 641,280 641,280 3.5% 3.6% 3.4% (12,362) 0 0 $33.3


1,511 94,276,518 5,489,397 5,826,465 6.2% 6.1% 6.2% (11,539) 20,222 50,000

Portland ORExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quoted


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 3 271,931 0 0 0.5% 0.5% 1.2% 3,203 0 0 $32.0


Power Centers 14 6,406,181 372,670 382,433 6.0% 5.5% 5.7% 37,773 0 0 $19.8

Malls 11 8,974,544 329,319 336,604 3.8% 3.6% 4.0% 8,896 0 0 $20.9


747 50,264,859 3,410,719 3,550,273 7.1% 7.0% 7.2% 417,303 340,775 4,700

Sacramento

CA


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010



Power Centers 29 10,576,764 796,635 897,948 8.5% 8.2% 9.0% 88,426 7,200 5,500 $21.1

Malls 12 9,023,258 661,451 661,451 7.3% 6.5% 6.6% 139,751 242,378 310,285 $26.1


1,216 72,755,929 8,499,892 8,934,509 12.3% 12.1% 12.3% 457,548 269,841 320,785

San Diego CAExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 11 1,082,876 46,747 46,747 4.3% 4.5% 2.7% (5,349) 0 0 $24.


Power Centers 23 10,138,861 419,975 527,987 5.2% 5.6% 6.5% 192,060 0 0 $27.

Malls 18 16,137,243 360,128 369,328 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 119,552 0 0 $23.9


1,256 81,533,252 4,773,706 5,103,773 6.3% 6.5% 6.3% 389,919 37,788 110,262


21/31



San Francisco

CA


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 7 1,569,736 69,928 75,128 4.8% 4.9% 5.4% 10,110 6,000 0 $83.2

Shopping Centers 281 9,682,309 488,453 493,453 5.1% 5.3% 5.1% (16,209) 0 0 $26.7

Power Centers 5 1,893,475 63,493 63,493 3.4% 3.6% 3.8% 4,980 0 0 $31.6

Malls 6 5,190,245 126,317 126,317 2.4% 0.9% 0.5% (97,092) 0 0 $30.0


299 18,335,765 748,191 758,391 4.1% 3.8% 4.1% (98,211) 6,000 0

West U.S. - Pacific cont.

San Jose/

South Bay CA


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010


Shopping Centers 762 29,982,098 1,969,577 2,108,341 7.0% 7.6% 6.9% 125,379 151,448 51,000 $25.2Power Centers 9 4,049,821 535,320 535,320 13.2% 12.6% 15.8% (38,151) 0 0 $18.7

Malls 12 11,619,106 206,361 206,361 1.8% 1.7% 3.2% 4,067 0 0 $34.0


785 46,198,732 2,719,556 2,858,320 6.2% 8.6% 8.2% 88,697 151,448 51,000

Santa Barbara

CA


Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quoted


2Q

2011

3Q

2010

Specialty Centers 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 N/

Shopping Centers 165 7,045,677 511,547 548,568 7.8% 7.8% 6.5% 1,307 0 0 $19.7

Power Centers 2 959,167 68,748 68,748 7.2% 6.7% 6.1% (10,080) 0 0 $24.0

Malls 3 1,524,422 38,105 38,105 2.5% 2.5% 0.7% (28,648) 0 0 $51.9


170 9,529,266 618,400 655,421 6.9% 6.8% 6.1% (37,421) 0 0

Seattle WAExisting Inventory Vacancy 3Q 2011

Historical

Vacancy Net


Under

Const SF

Quote


2Q

2011

3Q

2010



Power Centers 15 5,695,126 250,092 250,092 4.4% 4.5% 6.0% 65,732 0 0 $18.5

Malls 22 17,538,648 744,572 755,539 4.3% 4.9% 5.0% 99,586 0 0 $26.3


1,381 81,271,669 6,635,204 6,750,543 8.3% 8.7% 8.4% 456,329 28,450 66,354


22/31



Apparel

Accessorize opened only two stores this year, but the

London-based chain has announced a goal of reaching

100 units by 2015. We expect 2012 openings to surpass

the 20-unit mark.

Anthropologie will close 2011 with at least 15 new stores.

Our sources tell us to expect a similar growth rate for the

coming year.

Even while parent company The Gap is planning on

closing 100 stores or more in the coming months, they

are continuing to grow their active womens sportswear

concept, Athleta. Athleta should close 2011 with about ten

new stores. We expect growth levels to surpass this in

2012we anticipate at least 15 units.

Bebes has plans to add a total of 11 new stores in its

current fiscal year, which ends in June 2012.

Body Central is looking to open as many as 40 new stores

in 2012.

Casual Male will open about 14 more new stores before the

end of the year, most of which will be their new Destination

XL concept. The chain wants to be opening between 75

and 100 new locations annually by 2013, which leaves thequestion as to how many units to expect next year. We

expect as many as 40 new units as Casual Male ramps up

growth of its new concept.

Cato Corporations new accessories concept, Versone

Accessories, is looking to open as many as 50 new stores

over the next 18 months.

Charlotte Russe will beef up growth in 2012 with as many

as 20 new stores.

Charming Charlies, an accessories concept that typically

uses about 8,000 square feet, will close 2011 with at least

ten new stores. We expect 2012 openings to approach 15

units or more.

Charming Shoppes will close out 2011 with only five to

seven new stores. We expect similar growth rates for 2012.

Chicos will net 21 new units over the next six months.

Citi Trends is yet another apparel chain that shrunk growth

plans this year; having reduced expansion goals from 70

to 55 locations. We expect Citi Trends to continue to grow

at a conservative pace next yearwe expect a minimum

of 50 units.

Davids Bridal is looking to open 10 new stores in 2012.

dELIA*s may open as many as 10 new stores in the next

twelve months.

Dots will close this year with about 25 new stores; next yea

they have budgeted for as many as 45 new stores.

Express will close the year with about 25 new units. Look

for the same in 2012

Five Below continues aggressive growth in the Midwest

In Chicago alone, the chain is planning on as many as 60

stores over the next five years. Five Below should close

out 2011 with about 50 new units. We expect this numbe

to increase to as many as 60 units in 2012.

Fossil will close this year with about 70 new stores, mostly

at outlet centers. The chain reportedly is looking to boos

this number in 2012we expect as many as 85 new stores

over the next twelve months.

Foundry Big & Tall Supply Company is JC Penneys new

mens concept. There are ten new stores already in the

pipeline, with openings scheduled heading into early 2012

These stores use roughly 6,000 square feet of space. The

Foundry has plans to open 300 new stores over the nex

five years. 2012 openings will likely top 75; with plans fo

150 new stores by 2013.

Francescas Collections plans to open as many as 75 new

stores annually over the next couple of years.

H&M is looking to close the year with as many as 265 new

stores internationally. It opened 12 new stores in the U.S

this year. That number will likely exceed 15 next year.

Its Fashion Metro should close the year with 21 new units

We expect this number to approach the 25-unit mark

in 2012.

Jos. A Banks should close this year with somewhere

between 40 and 50 new stores, including its outle

concepts. We expect a similar growth rate in 2012.

The Limited will close this year with 19 new stores. Weexpect the same growth rate in 2012.

Mens Wearhouse should close 2011 with 20 to 25 new

stores for the year. That being said, next year will see

more remodels than new stores. New unit tallies for 2012

may not reach this years levels. Mens Wearhouse has

announced a goal of 109 new units through 2017.

Rue21 should close out the year having reached their goa

of 100 new units. We expect next years growth levels to be

slightly below this years, though this may change should

the economy pick up momentum. Still, we are expecting

somewhere in the neighborhood of 75 new units.

Exspansion Notes

The following are just a few of the expansion plans of the retailers and restaurant chains that we are tracking in the marketplace

This data has been culled from a wide variety of sources, ranging from published reports to SEC filings to market gossip o

confirmed plans shared with us directly by retailers. While we believe that this information is reliable, we make no guarantee as to

the accuracy of this data.


23/31



Steeles plans as many as 38 new stores next year; focusing

growth primarily in the south central United States.

Tillys will close 2011 with roughly 13 new stores and

reportedly is planning to add around 20 units in 2012.

Urban Outfitters will close this year with about 55 new

stores, including a few locations for their new bridalconcept, Bhldn. We expect at least 35 new units in 2012.

Wet Seal may open between 25 and 30 new stores in the

coming year.

Automotive

Advance Auto Parts will open as many as 140 new stores

before the close of 2011. The company will likely keep a

similar pace next year; primarily focusing on the Eastern

United States.

AutoZone opened nearly 40 stores in the first half of the

year. They will likely close the year with about 70 new

units, well behind the 163 stores opened in 2010. The

chain is shifting its expansion strategy to more ground

leases and land purchaseswhich will slow development,

so we expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 new

locations in 2012, though 2013 numbers will likely increase

substantially.

OReilly Auto Parts hopes to close this year with as many

as 170 new units. We expect them to open roughly the

same number of stores in 2012.

Pep Boys will close 2011 with as many as 55 new stores.

Next year, the company has plans for as many as 75 service

and tire centers (which average about 5,000 square feet in

size) and as many as ten supercenters (which are usually

13,000 square feet in size).

Beauty Salons/Supply

FantasticSamswilllikelycloseout2011withjust40new

locations. We expect this number to increase in 2012

based on reports that the chains franchising efforts are up.

We expect at least 60 units in the coming year.

GreatClipsshouldreach160newsalonsthisyearandhas

a goal of at least 170 new units next.

SportClipsisaimingforatleast120newsalonsin2012.

Ultawill closethisyearwith61newstores;weexpectasimilar p

Documents

Chainlinks 2012 National Retail Forecast-TRS