Challenges and Future Perspectives - Ireland

Moorepark2015

Dr. Brendan HoranAnimal & Grassland Research and Innovation Centre

Teagasc, Moorepark, Fermoy, Co Cork.

web: http://www.agresearch.teagasc.ie/moorepark/Follow us:

Presentation Overview

• The Irish Dairy Industry in 2015

• The Sustainable Expansion Challenge

• Integrated grazing systems characteristics

• Selecting appropriate animals for integrated grazing systems

• Conclusions

Structure of Irish Dairy Industry

1. Number of dairy farmers - 17,000

2. Currently 1.2 million dairy cows

3. Average herd of 70 cows on 47 ha, producing 323,000 l

4. Average Family Farm Income in 2014 - €68,877

5. Predominately spring calving pasture-based systems

6. Average milk yield/cow: 4,750 l (3.99% fat & 3.43% protein)

7. ~90% of milk exported

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015?

Cent

per

Litre

Milk price Ave. total costs Top 10% total costs

• Increasing milk price and farm income volatility

The Irish Dairy Industry in 2015

(Teagasc National Farm Survey, various years)

Vision for agri-food sector

for next decade

Ambitious growth targets

milk volume: + 50%

beef value: + 20%

pigmeat value: + 50%

SMART – GREEN – GROWTHSustainability very important

Consumer and consumer needs are central

http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/agri-foodindustry/foodharvest2020/

TEAGASC – Supporting Innovation in the Irish Bio-Economy

Food Harvest 2020

FH2020 Projections – the farming stats

Year Milk

Production

( million l)

Cow Numbers

(million)

Milk

Yield/cow (l)

Fat % Protein%

1984 5,422 1.549 3,811 3.51 3.27

2007/09 4,932 1.005 4,469 3.81 3.33

2014 5,651 1.192 4,740 3.99 3.43

2020 7,232 1.382 5,232 4.14 3.48

Geographic location of

New Entrants to

Dairying

= New Entrants

= High density of

existing dairy farmers

= Low density of

existing dairy farmers

Where will the extra milk be produced?

Increasing stocking rate in grass-based systems

• Stocking rate (SR) is the main driver of productivity from grazing

systems due to its effect on herbage utilisation (Hoden et al, 1991;

Macdonald et al., 2008)

• The ideal SR is a balance of the dual objectives of generous

feeding to achieve high production per animal and underfeeding to

achieve high level of pasture utilisation (Penno, 1999)

• Increased SR requires grazing management that maximises

pasture production and quality (McCarthy et al, 2012)

• But…traditionally negative environmental effects at farm level

• Increased N fertilizer and concentrate supplementation (Treacy et al., 2008)

• N loss to ground water

The Sustainable Intensification Challenge?Ruminant production systems face a threefold challenge:

i) to meet the rapidly changing demand for

food within a resource constrained

environment

ii) to do so in an environmentally and

socially sustainable manner

iii) to ensure that the products

produced meet the highest

standards of quality and nutritional

value

What is sustainable intensification?Producing more food per unit

resource used,while minimising the pressure on

the environment

The Necessity for Resilient SystemsExpanding dairy farm businesses must be resilient based on a farm system which

provides a vehicle for business growth and can absorb unforeseen events

• Simple & labour efficient with minimal decision making

• Insulated from milk price & climate instability

• Consistently meet profitability expectations (profit/ha & costs/kg MS)

• Producing high quality product in an environmentally friendly manner

Integrated Grass-based Production Systems

Excellent basics

Integrated decisions

Alignment of

grass supply

&

animal requirements

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

kg DM / Hectare dailyDaily pasture growth rateDaily herd feed requirement

285+ DIM

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

% of cows in the herdSpring Summer Winter

CALVE

CONCEIVE

DRIED-OFF

Compact calving,

high fertility status

dairy herd

“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication” – Leonardo da Vinci.

1. 90% home grown feed

3. Long grazing lactation (285+ days)

4. High milk productivity (1,250 kg MS/ha)

2. Environmentally efficient

Grassland Systems are Cost Efficient

R2 = 0.9074

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 20 40 60 80 100Dietary grass proportion (%)

Tota

l co

sts

of

Pro

du

ctio

n (

€ c

/l)

US ConfinedUS Grazing

DK

GERFR

IRL

AU

NZ

UKNL

Increased grazed grass proportion in the animal diet decreases milk production

costs reducing feed, labour and capital investment costs

Cost of alternative feeds 2015:

c/kg DM Relative

Grazed grass 7

Grass silage 16 x2

Concentrates 27 x4

• The profitability of Irish dairying is intrinsically linked to grass utilisation

R2 = 0.42

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16Estimated Grass utilisation t DM/ha

Ne

t p

rofi

t (€

/ha

)Farm Profitability and Grass Utilisation

Each additional tonne of DM/ha is worth €161/ha

Emissions per kg milk produced in EU countries

Source: Evaluation of the livestock sector’s contribution to the EU GHG emissions (GGELS) EC, Joint

Research centre, 2010.

LCA method

September, 10, 2014

Stocking rate (cows/ha) 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9

Concentrate (kg/cow) 741 716 645 636 1202 590 617 288 450 430

N imported in fertilizer (kg/ha) 294 289 296 331 259 313 244 248 252 249

Increasing stocking rate is compatible with improved environmental performance based on an integrated systems approach to increase

reliance on natural resources

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

NO

3-N

co

nce

ntr

atio

n in

gr

ou

nd

wat

er

(mg/

l)

Fat

plu

s p

rote

in p

rod

uct

ion

(t/h

a)

Year

Fat plus protein Groundwater NO3-N

• Productivity (1,200 -1,400 kg MS per ha)

• Calve every 12 months

• Withstand a fluctuating feed supply ~ BCS

• High pasture DM intakes (16 -20 kg DM/day)

• Survive in a larger herd scenario

• Average 5.5 lactations – healthy resilient animal

The cow for pasture systems must have the following characteristics:

Selecting a Suitable Dairy Cow for the System

Evolution of the Economic Breeding Index

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Relative

emph

asis

Milk Fertility Calving Beef Maintenance Health Management

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

EBV f

or f

at

+ p

rote

in y

ield

Fat

+ P

rote

in y

ield

Year of calving

Improved Fat & Protein Yield

On-farm

Genetic

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

370

375

380

385

390

395

40019

85

198

7

198

9

199

1

199

3

199

5

199

7

199

9

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

20

17

20

19

Gene

tic

merit

Calving

inte

rval

Year of calving

Improved Reproductive Performance

On-farm

Genetic

Conclusions

• Outlook & profit potential for well managed grass-based dairy systems is

excellent – significant expansion in dairying imminent

• Experimental results highlight the potential for the sustainable intensification

of grass-based production based on an improved basic systemic approach

• Increased reliance on grazed grass diets

• Selection of appropriate dairy cattle

• Appropriate chemical and organic fertilizer application strategies

• Excellent business & tactical management skills – education/training

We wish to acknowledge Irish dairy farmer funding of this research

http://www.agresearch.teagasc.ie/moorepark

brendan.horan@teagasc.ie