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7/28/2019 Chance Discovery With Data Crystallization - Discovering Unobservable Events_2006
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Final Report
Title: Chance Discovery with Data Crystallization
A Basic Research for Discovering Unobservable Events
Contract Number: FA5209-05-P-0259
AFOSR/AOARD Reference Number: AOARD-05-15
AFOSR/AOARD Program Manager: Tae-Woo Park, Ph.D.
Period of Performance: 01 April 2005 - 31 March 2006
Submission Date: 10 May 2006
PI: Yukio Ohsawa /University of Tsukuba3-29-1 Otsuka, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo
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Report Documentation PageForm Approved
OMB No. 0704-0188
Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and
maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information,
including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington
VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing t o comply with a collection of information if it
does not display a currently valid OMB control number.
1. REPORT DATE
08 AUG 2006
2. REPORT TYPE
Final Report (Technical)
3. DATES COVERED
01-04-2005 to 31-03-2006
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
Chance Discovery with Data Crystallization - Discovering Unobservable
Events
5a. CONTRACT NUMBER
FA520905P0259
5b. GRANT NUMBER
5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER
6. AUTHOR(S)
Yukio Ohsawa
5d. PROJECT NUMBER
5e. TASK NUMBER
5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER
7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)
University of Tsukuba,3-29-1 Otsuka, Bunkyo,Tokyo112-0012,Japan,JP,1120012
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION
REPORT NUMBER
9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)
The US Resarch Labolatory, AOARD/AFOSR, Unit 45002, APO, AP,
96337-5002
10. SPONSOR/MONITORS ACRONYM(S)
AOARD/AFOSR
11. SPONSOR/MONITORS REPORT
NUMBER(S)
AOARD-054016
12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
14. ABSTRACT
It is only the observable part of the real world that can be presented in data. For such a scattered, i.e., an
incomplete and ill-structured data, data crystallizing aims at presenting the hidden structure by inserting
dummy items corresponding to unobservable, i.e., hidden events, to the given data on past events. The
existence of hidden events and their position in the environment will be visualized as a result of data
crystallizing. This basic method is expected to be applicable for various real world domains to which
chance-discovery methods have been applied. This project aims at developing the process of data
crystallizing, with a new tool extending KeyGraph, based on the process of chance discovery. In the
research, experiments will be made using artificial data obtained from simulating the target of intelligence
analysis, i.e., organized crimes.
15. SUBJECT TERMSData Mining, Chance Discovery
16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OFABSTRACT
18. NUMBER
OF PAGES
47
19a. NAME OF
RESPONSIBLE PERSONa. REPORT
unclassified
b. ABSTRACT
unclassified
c. THIS PAGE
unclassified
Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98)Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18
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- Marketing, where consumer-behaviors from hidden motivations are dealt with,- Prediction of earthquakes caused by hidden active faults- Hepatitis treatment, where some observation might be missing in the blood test.In studies on chance discovery, we have been working well in finding rare but significant events. Data
crystallizing means to extend chance discovery to the discovery of significant events which have never
occurred in the given data, i.e., from low-frequency to zero-frequency. This means to deal with more uncertain
environment where human may miss important event, than we have been dealing with in data mining or
chance discovery.
A relevant research area to Chance Discovery is Evidence Extraction and Link Discovery (EELD),
where important links of people with other people and with their own actions are to be discovered from
heterogeneous sources of data. The difference between Chance Discovery and EELD, at the time we began this
project, was in the position of human factors in the research approaches. In Chance Discovery, the
visualization techniques such as KeyGraph have been used for clarifying the effect of chances, by enforcing
the users thoughts on scenarios in the real environment. On the other hand, the EELD program mainlycontributed to identifying the most significant links among items more automatically and precisely than human.
After the one year of this successful project, we showed an improvement of the visualization tool reinforcesthe process of chance discovery, and this may be regarded as a new feature of the state of chance discovery.
I expect these two will meet, because the studies in EELD is now oriented to coupling symbolic
expressions of human knowledge with a machine learning system. That is, humans interaction with machine
intelligence is coming to the centers of these two domains. Some studies in EELD, such as data visualization
for decision making, serve bridges between human and machine. In this sense, our methods for data
crystallization is expected to contribute to EELD as well as to chance discovery.
Relation to the goal
The sphere of real world applications linked from this basic research is expected to include intelligence
analysis aiming to arrest unknown leaders, development of new (unknown) products, aiding corporate
behaviors by detecting unknown interest of employees, etc. We successfully accomplished to show the
potential ability of our methods to solve these new problems, by applying to toy (simulated) and real problems
corresponding to small-size version of these up-to-date problems.
(5) Personnel Supported: List the professional personnel supported by the contract and/or the personnel who
participated significantly in the research effort.
Yuki Nyu: Organized the message board where various decision making by a group of 10 to 30 people were made.Significant experimental results have been obtained from her organizational efforts.
Yoshiharu Maeno, Mr: Developed and implemented the new method human-interactive annealing.Kataichi Ito, Mr: Implemented the basic tool for the experiments of data crystallization
(6) Publications: List peer-reviewed publications submitted and/or accepted during the contract period.
Yoshiharu Maeno and Yukio Ohsawa, Human-Computer Interactive Annealing for Discovering Invisible DarkEvents, submitted to IEEE Transaction on Humatronics (Under review 2006)
Yoshiharu Maeno and Yukio Ohsawa, Understanding of dark events for harnessing risk, Chance
Discovery for Real World Decision Making, Chapter 22, Springer Verlag (2006)Kenichi Horie, Yukio Ohsawa, Product Designed on Scenario Maps Using Pictorial KeyGraph, WSEAS
Transaction on Information Science and Application, Vol.3 No.7, pp.1324-1331 (2006)
Tsuneki Sakakibara, Yukio Ohsawa, Gradual-Increase Extraction of Target Baskets as Preprocess for
Visualizing Simplified Scenario Maps by KeyGraph, Journal of Soft Computing (2006) To Appear
Naohiro Matsumura, Yukio Ohsawaa, Mitsuru Ishizuka, Combination Retrieval for Creating Knowledge from
Sparse Document-Collection, Journal of Knowledge Based Systems, Vol.18, No.7, pp.327 -- 333
(Elsevier, 2006)
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Yukio Ohsawa, Scenario Understanding of Hepatitis Progress and Recovery by Annnotation-based Integration
of Data based Scenario Maps, GESTS International Trans. Computer Science and Engineering Vol.22,
N0.1., pp.65-76 (2005)
Yukio Ohsawa, Data Crystallization: Chance Discovery Extended for Dealing with Unobservable Events,New Mathematics and Natural Computation Vol.1, No.3, pp.373 - 392 (2005)
Renate Fruchter, Yukio Ohsawa, and Naohiro Matsumura, Knowledge reuse through chance discovery from anenterprise design-build enterprise data store, New Mathematics and Natural Computation Vol.1 No.3,
pp.393-406 (2005)
Noriyuki Kushiro, and Yukio Ohsawa, a A scenario acquisition method with multi-dimensional hearing and
hierarchical accommodation process, New Mathematics and Natural Computation Vol.2, No.1, pp.101-
113 (2006)
Xavier Llor, a David E. Goldberg, Yukio Ohsawa, et al, Innovation and Creativity support via ChanceDiscovery, Genetic Algorithms, New Mathematics and Natural Computation, Vol.2, No.1, pp.85-100
(2006)Yukio Ohsawa, Naohiro Matsumura, Naoaki Okazaki Understanding Scenarios of Individual Patients of
Hepatitis in Double Helical Process Involving KeyGraph and DSV, The Fourth IEEE International
Workshop on Soft Computing as Transdisciplinary Science and Technology (WSTST05), Muroran,pp.456- 469 (2005)
Tsuneki Sakakibara, Yukio Ohsawa Knowledge Discovery Method by Gradual Increase of Target Baskets
from Sparse Dataset The Fourth IEEE International Workshop on Soft Computing as Transdisciplinary
Science and Technology (WSTST05), Muroran, pp.480- 489 (2005)
Yuichi Washida, Hiroshi Tamura, Yukio Ohsawa Examining Small World Problem Using KeyGraph The
Fourth IEEE International Workshop on Soft Computing as Transdisciplinary Science and Technology
(WSTST05), Muroran, pp.490- 500 (2005)
(7) Interactions: Please list:
(a) Participation/presentations at meetings, conferences, seminars, etc.
Yukio Ohsawa: "Data Crystallization: A Project Beyond Chance Discovery for Discovering Unobservable
Events," Invited Talk in IEEE International Conference on Granular Computing, Beijin (CDROM, 2005)Yukio Ohsawa: Plenary Lecture "Chance Discovery: Data-based Decision for Design and Business"
International Workshop on Chance Discovery,Aletheia University, Taipei (2005)Yukio Ohsawa: "Data Crystallization: A Project Beyond Chance Discovery for Discovering Unobservable
Events" IEEE International Conference on Granular Computing, Beijin (2005)
Yuko Ohsawa: Designing Systems for Chance Discovery, The Fourth IEEE International Workshop on Soft
Computing as Transdisciplinary Science and Technology, Plenary Lecture (2005)
Yukio Ohsawa, Takaichi Itoh, Data Crystallizer: Tool for Discovering Unobservable Events, 1st Annual
Workshop on Rough Sets and Chance Discovery (RSCD) in conjunction with 8th Joint Conference on
Information Sciences (JCIS 2005), Salt Lake City (2005)
Kazuhisa INABA and Yukio OHSAWA, Study on a Method for Supporting Scenario Extraction from Time
Series Information, 1st Annual Workshop on Rough Sets and Chance Discovery (RSCD) in conjunctionwith 8th Joint Conference on Information Sciences (JCIS 2005), Salt Lake City (2005)
Kenichi HORIE and Yukio OHSAWA, Extracting High Quality Scenario for Consensus On NewSpecifications of Equipment, 1st Annual Workshop on Rough Sets and Chance Discovery (RSCD) in
conjunction with 8th Joint Conference on Information Sciences (JCIS 2005), Salt Lake City (2005)
Yukio Ohsawa, Human-based Annotation of Data-based Scenario Flow on Scenario Map for Understanding
Hepatitis Scenarios, Proc. KES Conference (2005)
Noriyuki Kushiro and Yukio Ohsawa, A Scenario Elicitation Method in Cooperation with Requirements
Engineering and Chance Discovery, Proc. KES Conference (2005)
Calkin A.S. Montero, Yukio Ohsawa, Kenji Araki Modelling the Discovery of Critical Utterances, Proc. KES
Conference (2005)
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Ken-ichi Horie, Yukio Ohsawa, Extracting High Quality Scenario for Consensus on Specifications of New
Products, Proc. KES Conference (2005)
(b) Describe cases where knowledge resulting from your effort is used, or will be used, in a technologyapplication. Not all research projects will have such cases, but please list any that have occurred.
- Visualizing the data of patent lists of a company, with our method of data crystallization, enabled to see new
technologies not yet existing in the world.
(8) New:
(a) List discoveries, inventions, or patent disclosures. (If none, report None.).
- The basic method of data crystallization, enabling to realize hidden leaders and hidden demands in the
market.
- The advanced method of data crystallization, which we call human-interactive annealing.
Patent disclosures: None
(b) Complete the attached DD Form 882, Report of Inventions and Subcontractors.
(9) Honors/Awards: List honors and awards received during the contract period, or emanating from the
AOARD-supported research project.
- Young scientist award, from the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and
Technology (May 2005)
(10) Archival Documentation: This section should include a description of your work at a level of technical
detail that you think to be appropriate. Submission of reprints/preprints often satisfies this requirement. If
you have questions on how to prepare this section, please discuss this matter with your AOARD programmanager.
Attached (the copies of articles below)
Yoshiharu Maeno and Yukio Ohsawa, Understanding of dark events for harnessing risk, Chance
Discovery for Real World Decision Making, Chapter 22m Springer Verlag (2006)
Yukio Ohsawa, Data Crystallization: Chance Discovery Extended for Dealing with Unobservable Events,
New Mathematics and Natural Computation Vol.1, No.3, pp.373 - 392 (2005)
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S e p t e m b e r 1 , 2 0 0 9 : 1 9 W S P C / I N S T R U C T I O N F I L E O h s a w a
N e w M a t h e m a t i c s a n d N a t u r a l C o m p u t a t i o n
c
W o r l d S c i e n t i c P u b l i s h i n g C o m p a n y
D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n : C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y E x t e n d e d f o r D e a l i n g w i t h
U n o b s e r v a b l e E v e n t s
3
Y u k i o O h s a w a
y
S c h o o l o f E n g i n e e r i n g , T h e U n i v e r s i t y o f T o k y o , 7 - 3 - 1 H o n g o , B u n k y o - k u , 1 1 3 - 8 5 6 3 , J a p a n
y . o h s a w a @ g m a i l . c o m
R e c e i v e d 1 7 J u n e 2 0 0 5
T h i s p a p e r i n t r o d u c e s t h e c o n c e p t o f C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y , i . e . , d i s c o v e r y o f a n e v e n t s i g -
n i c a n t f o r d e c i s i o n m a k i n g . T h e n , t h i s p a p e r a l s o p r e s e n t s a c u r r e n t r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t
o n D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n , w h i c h i s a n e x t e n s i o n o f C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y . T h e n e e d f o r D a t a
C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n i s t h a t o n l y t h e o b s e r v a b l e p a r t o f t h e r e a l w o r l d c a n b e s t o r e d i n d a t a .
F o r s u c h s c a t t e r e d , i . e . , i n c o m p l e t e a n d i l l - s t r u c t u r e d d a t a , d a t a c r y s t a l l i z i n g a i m s a t p r e -
s e n t i n g t h e h i d d e n s t r u c t u r e a m o n g e v e n t s i n c l u d i n g u n o b s e r v a b l e o n e s . T h i s i s r e a l i z e d
w i t h a t o o l w h i c h i n s e r t s d u m m y i t e m s , c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o u n o b s e r v a b l e b u t s i g n i c a n t
e v e n t s , t o t h e g i v e n d a t a o n p a s t e v e n t s . T h e e x i s t e n c e o f t h e s e u n o b s e r v a b l e e v e n t s a n d
t h e i r r e l a t i o n s w i t h o t h e r e v e n t s a r e v i s u a l i z e d w i t h K e y G r a p h , s h o w i n g e v e n t s b y n o d e s
a n d t h e i r r e l a t i o n s b y l i n k s , o n t h e d a t a w i t h i n s e r t e d d u m m y i t e m s . T h i s v i s u a l i z a t i o n
i s i t e r a t e d w i t h g r a d u a l l y i n c r e a s i n g t h e n u m b e r o f l i n k s i n t h e g r a p h . T h i s p r o c e s s i s
s i m i l a r t o t h e c r y s t a l l i z a t i o n o f s n o w w i t h g r a d u a l d e c r e a s e i n t h e a i r t e m p e r a t u r e . F o r
t u n i n g t h e g r a n u l a r i t y l e v e l o f s t r u c t u r e t o b e v i s u a l i z e d , t h i s t o o l i s i n t e g r a t e d w i t h
h u m a n ' s p r o c e s s o f c h a n c e d i s c o v e r y . T h i s b a s i c m e t h o d i s e x p e c t e d t o b e a p p l i c a b l e f o r
v a r i o u s r e a l w o r l d d o m a i n s w h e r e c h a n c e - d i s c o v e r y m e t h o d s h a v e b e e n a p p l i e d .
K e y w o r d s : U n o b s e r v a b l e E v e n t s ; C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y ; D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n
1 . I n t r o d u c t i o n
I n t h i s s t u d y , m y r e s e a r c h t e a m i s r e v e a l i n g e v e n t s t h a t a r e p o t e n t i a l l y i m p o r t a n t
b u t h a v e n e v e r b e e n o b s e r v e d . B e c a u s e t h e y a r e n o t i n c l u d e d i n t h e d a t a , e x i s t i n g
m i n i n g m e t h o d s h a r d l y h e l p i n i d e n t i f y i n g s u c h e v e n t s . D a t a c r y s t a l l i z a t i o n i s t h e
c h a l l e n g e t o t h i s d i c u l t p r o b l e m . I t f o r m s a n e x t e n s i o n o f w h a t w e h a v e b e e n
c a l l i n g C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y s i n c e 2 0 0 0
1 2 3
C h a n c e d i s c o v e r y m e a n s t h e d i s c o v e r y o f a c h a n c e , w h i c h i s d e n e d a s a n e v e n t
s i g n i c a n t f o r d e c i s i o n m a k i n g . T h i s h a s b e e n a r e a l c h a l l e n g e t o g o b e y o n d t h e
m e t h o d o l o g y o f d a t a m i n i n g , i n t h a t t h e n e w g o a l i s t h e u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e
3
T h i s w o r k w a s s u p p o r t e d i n p a r t b y t h e U . S . G o v e r n m e n t . M r . T a k a i c h i I t o , K e i o U n i v e r s i t y ,
c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h i s s t u d y a s t h e s o f t w a r e d e v e l o p e r o f d a t a c r y s t a l l i z a t i o n .
y
S c h o o l o f E n g i n e e r i n g , T h e U n i v e r s i t y o f T o k y o , 7 - 3 - 1 H o n g o , B u n k y o - k u , T o k y o 1 1 3 - 8 6 5 3 J a p a n
( e - m a i l : y . o h s a w a @ g m a i l . c o m ) .
1
7/28/2019 Chance Discovery With Data Crystallization - Discovering Unobservable Events_2006
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S e p t e m b e r 1 , 2 0 0 9 : 1 9 W S P C / I N S T R U C T I O N F I L E O h s a w a
2 Y u k i o O h s a w a
m e a n i n g o f r a r e e v e n t s f o r m a k i n g d e c i s i o n s , r a t h e r t h a n l e a r n i n g r u l e s f o r p r e -
d i c t i n g t h e s e r a r e e v e n t s
6 7
. F o r e x a m p l e , d e v e l o p e r s o f c e l l u l a r p h o n e a r e s e e k i n g
c o m m e n t s f r o m u s e r s . S o m e c o m m e n t s s i g n i c a n t l y a e c t t h e d e c i s i o n o f a d e v e l -
o p e r t o r e d e s i g n c e l l u l a r p h o n e s , s o t h e y c a n b e r e g a r d e d a s \ c h a n c e s . " G i v e n t h e s e
c o m m e n t s , d a t a / t e x t m i n i n g t o o l s m a y b e a b l e t o s h o w t h e r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n c o m -
m e n t s , t h e s i m i l a r i t i e s o f u s e r s , e t c . O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , m e t h o d s o f c h a n c e d i s c o v e r y
a i d h u m a n - c o m p u t e r i n t e r a c t i o n s t o p o t e n t i a l l y a c h i e v e t h e d e t e c t i o n o f r a r e b u t i n -
u e n t i a l e v e n t s / w o r d s / i t e m s / p e o p l e
8 9 1 0
. I n o r d e r t o r e a l i z e C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y , w e
d e v e l o p e d t o o l s o f d a t a - v i s u a l i z a t i o n
1 1 1 2
, t o b e c o u p l e d w i t h h u m a n ' s p e r c e p t i o n
o f c h a n c e s
1 3
. I n t h e n e x t s e c t i o n , w e w i l l r e v i e w p r e v i o u s a p p r o a c h e s t o C h a n c e
D i s c o v e r y .
2 . T h e P r o b l e m o f C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y
L e t u s d e n e a s c e n a r i o a s a s e q u e n c e o f e v e n t s a n d a c t i o n s i n a c e r t a i n c o n t e x t . F o r
e x a m p l e , s u p p o s e a c u s t o m e r o f a d r u g s t o r e b u y s a n u m b e r o f i t e m s i n s e r i e s , a f e w
i t e m s p e r m o n t h . H e h a s a n u r g e t o d o s o b e c a u s e h e h a s a c e r t a i n p e r s i s t e n t d i s e a s e .
I n t h i s c a s e , f u l l l i n g a r e m e d y o f t h e d i s e a s e s u g g e s t e d b y h i s d o c t o r i s t h e p u r p o s e
c o v e r i n g t h e e n t i r e e v e n t - s e q u e n c e , w h e r e a n e v e n t i s t h e p a t i e n t ' s p u r c h a s e o f a
d r u g . H e r e , t h e p u r p o s e t o f u l l l t h e r e m e d y i s t h e c o n t e x t c o v e r i n g t h e s e q u e n c e .
T h e n , t h i s p a t i e n t m a y l e a r n s a b o u t a n e w d r u g , a n d s t a r t s t o t a k e i t f o r c h a n g i n g
t h e s c e n a r i o t o a r a d i c a l c u r e . A f t e r a m o n t h , h i s d o c t o r g e t s u p s e t h e a r i n g t h i s
c h a n g e i n t h e t r e a t m e n t d u e t o t h e p a t i e n t ' s i g n o r a n c e r e g a r d i n g t h e r i s k o f t h e
n e w d r u g . H e r e , t h e d o c t o r n o t i c e d t h e r i s k y s c e n a r i o i n t h e c o n t e x t o f s i d e e e c t s .
T h e d o c t o r u r g e n t l y i n t r o d u c e s s u r g i c a l o p e r a t i o n , a p o w e r f u l m e t h o d t o o v e r c o m e
t h e s i d e e e c t s a n d c h a n g e i n t o t h e t h i r d s c e n a r i o i n t h e c o n t e x t o f r e c o v e r y .
I n t h i s e x a m p l e , w e n d t w o \ c h a n c e s " i n t h e t h r e e s c e n a r i o s . T h e r s t c h a n c e i s
t h e i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t t h e n e w d r u g w h i c h c h a n g e s f r o m t h e r s t r e m e d y s c e n a r i o
t o t h e s e c o n d s c e n a r i o , i . e . , t h e r i s k y o n e . T h e n t h e d o c t o r ' s s u r p r i s e b e c a m e t h e
s e c o n d c h a n c e t o t u r n t o t h e t h i r d s c e n a r i o . A c c o r d i n g t o t h e d e n i t i o n o f \ c h a n c e "
b y O h s a w a
1
, i . e . , a n e v e n t o r a s i t u a t i o n s i g n i c a n t f o r d e c i s i o n m a k i n g , a c h a n c e
o c c u r s a t t h e c r o s s p o i n t o f m u l t i p l e s c e n a r i o s a s i n t h e e x a m p l e a b o v e , b e c a u s e
a d e c i s i o n i s t o s e l e c t o n e s c e n a r i o i n t h e f u t u r e . B a s e d o n t h i s i d e a , m e t h o d s o f
C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y m a y c o n t r i b u t e s i g n i c a n t l y t o s c i e n c e s a n d b u s i n e s s d o m a i n s
3
H e r e , l e t u s s t a n d o n t h e p o s i t i o n o f a p h y s i c i a n l o o k i n g a t t h e t i m e s e r i e s o f
s y m p t o m s d u r i n g t h e p r o g r e s s o f a n i n d i v i d u a l p a t i e n t ' s d i s e a s e . T h e p h y s i c i a n
s h o u l d t a k e a p p r o p r i a t e a c t i o n s f o r c u r i n g t h i s p a t i e n t , a t a p p r o p r i a t e t i m e s .
S c e n a r i o 1 = e v e n t 1 ! e v e n t 2 ! e v e n t 3 ( t h e p r o g r e s s o f t h e d i s e a s e )
S c e n a r i o 2 = e v e n t 4 ! e v e n t ! e v e n t 6 ( t h e e f f e c t o f t h e n e w d r u g ) ( 2 . 1 )
E a c h e v e n t - s e q u e n c e i n E q . ( 2 . 1 ) i s a s c e n a r i o a s f a r a s i t i s c o v e r e d b y s o m e
c o h e r e n t c o n t e x t . F o r e x a m p l e , S c e n a r i o 1 i s i n t h e c o n t e x t o f d i s e a s e p r o g r e s s i o n
w i t h o u t t r e a t m e n t , a n d S c e n a r i o 2 i s a s c e n a r i o i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t a k i n g a n e w d r u g
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D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n B e y o n d C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y 3
w i t h a s i d e e e c t . S u p p o s e t h e r e i s a n o t h e r e v e n t 9 , m e a n i n g t h e a p p e a r a n c e o f t h e
n e w d r u g , s h o r t l y a f t e r e v e n t 2 . T h e p a t i e n t t o o k t h i s a s a g o o d c h a n c e , b y j u s t
l o o k i n g a t t h e l o c a l r e l a t i o n a m o n g e v e n t 2 , e v e n t 9 , a n d e v e n t 4 . F o r t h i s p a t i e n t ' s
p e r c e p t i o n , t h e a p p e a r a n c e o f e v e n t 9 j u s t a f t e r e v e n t 2 b e c a m e e s s e n t i a l f o r m a k i n g
a d e c i s i o n , a n d l o o k e d l i k e a s i g n i c a n t c h a n c e . H o w e v e r , t h e d o c t o r l o o k e d a t t h e
o v e r a l l r e l a t i o n s a m o n g a l l e v e n t s i n t h e m a p i n F i g . 1 , a n d n o t i c e d t h e p a t i e n t i s
g o i n g i n a w r o n g d i r e c t i o n . T h a n k s t o h i s a w a r e n e s s o f a s i d e e e c t ( e v e n t ) o f t h e
n e w d r u g , h e d e c i d e s t o p e r f o r m a s u r g i c a l o p e r a t i o n .
D e t e c t i n g a n e v e n t a t a c r o s s p o i n t b e t w e e n m u l t i p l e s c e n a r i o s , s u c h a s e v e n t
2 , e v e n t 9 , a n d e v e n t a b o v e , a n d s e l e c t i n g t h e s c e n a r i o t h a t i n c l u d e s s u c h a c r o s s
p o i n t i s t h e e s s e n c e o f C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y . I n g e n e r a l , t h e m e a n i n g o f a s c e n a r i o
w i t h a n e x p l a n a t o r y c o n t e x t i s e a s i e r t o u n d e r s t a n d t h a n a n e v e n t s h o w n a l o n e .
F r o m F i g . 1 , w e c a n u n d e r s t a n d t h e t h r e e b a s i c s c e n a r i o s , a n d t h e n o v e l s c e n a r i o
e m e r g i n g f r o m c o n n e c t i n g t h e b a s i c s c e n a r i o s v i a c h a n c e e v e n t s . H o w e v e r , e v e n t 2 ,
e v e n t 9 , a n d e v e n t a s s h o w n i n F i g . 1 , a r e h a r d e r t o u n d e r s t a n d i f t h e y a r e s h o w n
i n d e p e n d e n t l y o f o t h e r e v e n t s . W i t h o u t t h i s u n d e r s t a n d i n g , i t w o u l d b e d i c u l t
t o o b t a i n t h e p a t i e n t ' s c o n s e n s u s o n i n t r o d u c i n g t h e s u r g i c a l o p e r a t i o n , b e c a u s e a
r a r e e v e n t s u c h a s e v e n t 9 m a k e s t h e s i t u a t i o n h a r d e r t o a c c e p t , a n d b e c a u s e t h i s
s u r g i c a l o p e r a t i o n i t s e l f i s r a r e f o r o r d i n a r y p a t i e n t s .
F o r r e a l i z i n g s u c h a n u n d e r s t a n d i n g , v i s u a l i z i n g t h e s c e n a r i o m a p i . e . a t w o -
d i m e n s i o n a l g r a p h o n w h i c h u s e r c a n n d a m e a n i n g f u l s c e n a r i o b y n d i n g a c o n t e x t
c o v e r i n g a c o n n e c t e d s e q u e n c e o f e v e n t s , i s u s e f u l . F o r e x a m p l e , o n t h e s c e n a r i o m a p
i n F i g . 1 , u s e r c a n n d t h e c o n n e c t e d s c e n a r i o b e g i n n i n g f r o m S c e n a r i o 1 , t o m o v e o n
v i a S c e n a r i o 2 , a n d , n a l l y , t o r e a c h S c e n a r i o 3 . H e r e , w e c a n r e g a r d e a c h f a m i l i a r
s c e n a r i o , s u c h a s S c e n a r i o 1 o r S c e n a r i o 2 , a s a n i s l a n d . A n d , l e t u s r e g a r d a p a t h
o f l i n k s b e t w e e n i s l a n d s a s a b r i d g e . I n C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y , t h e p r o b l e m t h e n i s t o
h a v e t h e u s e r o b t a i n i n g b r i d g e s b e t w e e n i s l a n d s , i n o r d e r t o e x p l a i n t h e m e a n i n g
o f c o n n e c t i o n s b e t w e e n i s l a n d s b y m e a n s o f b r i d g e s , a s a s c e n a r i o w h i c h c a n b e
e x p r e s s e d i n a l a n g u a g e t h a t i s u n d e r s t a n d a b l e f o r t h e u s e r h i m s e l f / h e r s e l f .
3 . T h e H u m a n - M a c h i n e I n t e r a c t i o n i n C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y
I n t h e p r e v a l e n t t e r m \ s c e n a r i o d e v e l o p m e n t , " a s c e n a r i o m a y s o u n d l i k e s o m e t h i n g
t o b e \ d e v e l o p e d " b y h u m a n s w h o c o n s c i o u s l y c o n t r o l t h e p r o c e s s b y p l a n n i n g
a c t i o n s . H o w e v e r , v a l u a b l e s c e n a r i o s m a y o f t e n \ e m e r g e " u n c o n s c i o u s l y f r o m c o m -
m u n i c a t i o n s o f h u m a n s . F o r e x a m p l e , a s c e n a r i o w o r k s h o p d e v e l o p e d b y t h e D a n i s h
B o a r d o f T e c h n o l o g y ( 2 0 0 3 ) s t a r t s f r o m s c e n a r i o s o f t h e f u t u r e s o c i e t y t h a t a r e p r e -
s e t b y w r i t e r s , t h e n e x p e r t s i n t h e d o m a i n c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e p r e s e t s c e n a r i o s
d i s c u s s s c e n a r i o s f o r a c h i e v i n g f u r t h e r i m p r o v e m e n t s . T h e d i s c u s s a n t s w r i t e d o w n
t h e i r o p i n i o n s d u r i n g t h e w o r k s h o p , b u t i t i s r a r e t h a t t h e y n o t i c e a l l t h e r e a s o n s w h y
t h o s e o p i n i o n s c a m e o u t a n d w h y t h e r e v i s e d s c e n a r i o s h a v e b e e n n a l l y o b t a i n e d .
T h i s p r o c e s s o f a s c e n a r i o w o r k s h o p c a n b e c o m p a r e d w i t h t h e K J ( K a w a k i t a
J i r o ) m e t h o d . I n t h e K J m e t h o d , p a r t i c i p a n t s w r i t e d o w n t h e i r i n i t i a l i d e a s o n
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4 Y u k i o O h s a w a
F i g . 1 . A c h a n c e t h a t e x i s t s a t t h e c r o s s p o i n t o f s c e n a r i o s . T h e s c e n a r i o i n t h e t h i c k a r r o w s
e m e r g e d f r o m S c e n a r i o 1 a n d S c e n a r i o 2 .
K J c a r d s a n d h e n c e a r r a n g e t h e c a r d s i n a 2 D - s p a c e , i n c o - w o r k i n g f o r n d i n g a
g o o d p l a n o f a c t i o n s . H e r e , t h e i d e a o n e a c h c a r d r e e c t s t h e f u t u r e s c e n a r i o i n a
p a r t i c i p a n t ' s m i n d . T h e n e w c o m b i n a t i o n o f p r o p o s e d s c e n a r i o s , g e n e r a t e d d u r i n g
t h e a r r a n g e m e n t a n d t h e r e a r r a n g e m e n t s o f K J c a r d s , h e l p s t h e e m e r g e n c e o f n e w
v a l u a b l e s c e n a r i o s . I n s o m e d e s i g n p r o c e s s e s , o n t h e o t h e r h a n d , i t h a s b e e n p o i n t e d
o u t t h a t a m b i g u o u s i n f o r m a t i o n c a n t r i g g e r c r e a t i o n s
4
. T h e c o m m o n p o i n t a m o n g
t h e s c e n a r i o \ w o r k s h o p " , t h e \ c o m b i n a t i o n " o f i d e a s i n t h e K J m e t h o d , a n d t h e
\ a m b i g u i t y " o f t h e i n f o r m a t i o n t o a d e s i g n e r i s t h a t s c e n a r i o s p r e s e n t e d f r o m t h e
v i e w p o i n t o f e a c h p a r t i c i p a n t ' s e n v i r o n m e n t , a r e b r i d g e d v i a a m b i g u o u s p i e c e s o f
i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t d i e r e n t m e n t a l w o r l d s , w h i c h t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s a t t e n d . F r o m
t h e s e b r i d g e s , e a c h p a r t i c i p a n t i n d e e d r e c o g n i z e s s i t u a t i o n s o r e v e n t s w h i c h m a y
w o r k a s \ c h a n c e s " i . e . , c r o s s - o v e r p o i n t s f o r f u s i n g o t h e r s ' s c e n a r i o s w i t h o n e ' s o w n .
T h i s c a n b e e x t e n d e d t o o t h e r d o m a i n s t h a n d e s i g n i n g . I n t h e e x a m p l e o f F i g . 1 ,
t h e h o p e f u l S c e n a r i o 3 a f t e r e v e n t m a y b e p r o p o s e d b y t h e d o c t o r , a n d c o n n e c t e d
w i t h S c e n a r i o 2 c h o s e n b y t h e p a t i e n t b e f o r e e v e n t . H e r e , e v e n t p l a y e d t h e r o l e
o f c r o s s - o v e r p o i n t o f t h e t w o s c e n a r i o s , o r t h e s t a r t i n g p o i n t o f t h e t h i c k a r r o w
b r i d g e .
I n t h e s t u d i e s o f C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y , t h e d i s c o v e r y p r o c e s s h a s b e e n s u p p o s e d
b y O h s a w a t o f o l l o w t h e D o u b l e H e l i x ( D H ) m o d e l
1 3
a s s h o w n i n F i g . 2 ( D a t a
C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n i n F i g . 2 i s t o b e e x p l a i n e d i n l a t e r s e c t i o n s ) . T h e D H p r o c e s s s t a r t s
f r o m t h e i n i t i a l s t a t e o f t h e u s e r ' s m i n d t h a t i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h c a t c h i n g a n e w
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D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n B e y o n d C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y 5
c h a n c e . T h i s c o n c e r n i s r e e c t e d t o a c q u i r i n g e x t e r n a l d a t a t o b e a n a l y z e d b y a
d a t a - v i s u a l i z i n g t o o l s u c h a s K e y G r a p h ( t o a p p e a r i n l a t e r s e c t i o n s ) , w h i c h h a s
b e e n s p e c i c a l l y d e s i g n e d f o r C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y . T h e v i s u a l i z a t i o n t o o l m a y d e p i c t
e a c h i t e m i n t h e d a t a a s a n o d e , a n d t h e c o - o c c u r r e n c e b e t w e e n i t e m s m a y b e s h o w n
a s l i n k s a m o n g n o d e s . S u c h a d i a g r a m h a s b e e n r e g a r d e d a s a s c e n a r i o m a p l i k e
F i g . 1 .
F i g . 2 . D a t a c r y s t a l l i z a t i o n o n t h e n d o u b l e h e l i x p r o c e s s .
L o o k i n g a t t h e s c e n a r i o m a p o b t a i n e d , p o s s i b l e s c e n a r i o s a n d t h e i r m e a n i n g s
e m e r g e i n e a c h u s e r ' s m i n d . T h e n , u s e r s p a r t i c i p a t e i n a c o - w o r k i n g g r o u p f o r C h a n c e
D i s c o v e r y , s h a r i n g t h e s a m e s c e n a r i o m a p . H e r e , t h e y p r e s e n t t h e s c e n a r i o s t h e y n d
f r o m t h e m a p . A s a r e s u l t , t h e c o m p u t e r a c q u i r e s i n t e r n a l d a t a i . e . t h e t e x t d a t a
r e c o r d i n g t h e t h o u g h t s a n d o p i n i o n s p r e s e n t e d i n t h e d i s c u s s i o n . T h e v i s u a l i z a t i o n
t o o l i s u s e d n o w a g a i n : W o r d s c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o c o n t e x t u a l b r i d g e s a r e v i s u a l i z e d ,
c o n n e c t e d w i t h p r e v a l e n t d a i l y - l i f e c o n t e x t s o f p a r t i c i p a n t s . B y t h i s t i m e , t h e p a r -
t i c i p a n t s d i s c o v e r c h a n c e s o n t h e b r i d g e s . B a s e d o n t h e s e c h a n c e s , t h e u s e r s c a n
m a k e a n e w d e c i s i o n i n t h e r e a l w o r l d . F i n a l l y , t h e u s e r s p e r f o r m a r e a l a c t i o n o n
w h i c h t h e y o b t a i n c o n c e r n s w i t h n e w c h a n c e s , a n d t h e h e l i c a l p r o c e s s r e t u r n s t o
t h e i n i t i a l s t e p o f t h e n e x t c y c l e .
I n t h e c a s e o f m a r k e t i n g , p a r t i c i p a n t s o f a b u s i n e s s m e e t i n g r a n o n t h e D H
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6 Y u k i o O h s a w a
p r o c e s s w i t h s h a r i n g t h e r e s u l t o f K e y G r a p h . T h e y l o o k e d a t t h e m a p o f t h e i r m a r -
k e t u s i n g K e y G r a p h , w h e r e n o d e s c o r r e s p o n d t o p r o d u c t s a n d l i n k s c o r r e s p o n d i n g
t o c o - o c c u r r e n c e s b e t w e e n p r o d u c t s i n t h e c u s t o m e r ' s b a s k e t d a t a . O n t h i s m a p ,
p a r t i c i p a n t s ( m a r k e t r e s e a r c h e r s ) d i s c u s s e d w i t h e x c h a n g i n g s c e n a r i o s o f c u s t o m e r s
l i v i n g o n v a r i o u s p r o d u c t - s e g m e n t s c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o l o c a l i s l a n d s i n t h e m a p . A s a
r e s u l t , t h e y f o u n d n e w s c e n a r i o s o f l i v i n g c u s t o m e r s w h o m a y b u y p r o d u c t s i n a l l
o v e r t h e w i d e m a r k e t . I n c o n t r a s t , p r e v i o u s m e t h o d s o f d a t a - b a s e d m a r k e t i n g c o u l d
i d e n t i f y f o c u s e d s e g m e n t s o f p r o d u c t s a n d t h e s c e n a r i o s i n e a c h l o c a l s e g m e n t . T h i s
r e a l i z e d t h e h i t s o f n e w p r o d u c t s a p p e a r i n g i n K e y G r a p h a t b r i d g e s b e t w e e n i s l a n d s .
T h u s , t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s o f t h e D H p r o c e s s r e a l l y d i s c o v e r e d r e m a r k a b l e c h a n c e s , a n d
m a d e r e a l b u s i n e s s p r o t s
8
4 . D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n : A N e w C h a l l e n g e
T h e c o m p l e x i t y o f t h e r e a l w o r l d w a s s o m e t i m e s b e y o n d t h e r e a c h o f p r e v i o u s m e t h -
o d s f o r C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y : A f e w n e r d u s e r s o f c e l l u l a r p h o n e s , w h o d o n o t s e n d o u t
c o m m e n t s f r e q u e n t l y a b o u t t h e i r w a y o f u s i n g c e l l u l a r , a r e l i k e l y t o c r e a t e a n e w
f a s h i o n c a u s i n g s t r o n g i n u e n c e s o n o t h e r u s e r s . T h e d e v e l o p e r ' s q u e s t i o n i s \ w h e r e
i s t h e i n n o v a t i v e u s e r ? " I f a n s w e r s t o t h e s e q u e s t i o n s a r e a v a i l a b l e , t h e d e v e l o p e r
c a n c o n t i n u e t o o b s e r v e t h e b e h a v i o r s o f t h e i n n o v a t i v e u s e r , a n d m a y b e a b l e t o
c a t c h t h e s i g n s o f n e w t r e n d s . T h i s c a n b e a s i g n i c a n t c h a n c e i n b u s i n e s s , t h a t
m a y a e c t h i s d e c i s i o n .
I t i s m e a n i n g l e s s t o a s k h u n d r e d s o f m o n i t o r s \ w h o g a v e y o u t h e i d e a t o u s e
c e l l u l a r p h o n e s i n t h i s w a y ? " b e c a u s e u s e r s s e l d o m s e e i n n o v a t i v e u s e r s , b u t o n l y
s e e o t h e r u s e r s ' a c c e s s o r i e s o f c e l l u l a r w h i c h a r e t h e i n d i r e c t e e c t s o f t h e i n n o v a t i o n .
A s a r e s u l t , n e i t h e r c o m m e n t s n o r n a m e s o f i n n o v a t o r s c a n b e i n c l u d e d i n t h e d a t a
o n u s e r ' s c o m m e n t s . H e r e a r o s e t h e p r o b l e m o f D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n .
D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n , o u r n e w p r o j e c t t h a t e x t e n d s C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y , i s d e d i -
c a t e d t o e x p e r t s w o r k i n g i n r e a l d o m a i n s w h e r e d i s c o v e r i e s o f u n o b s e r v a b l e e v e n t s
a r e d e s i r e d . F o r e x a m p l e , l e t u s c o n s i d e r i n t e l l i g e n c e a n a l y s i s , w h e r e e x p e r t i n v e s -
t i g a t o r s o f c r i m i n a l - g r o u p b e h a v i o r s a r e e x p l o r i n g l i n k s a m o n g m e m b e r s . T h e t o p
l e a d e r ( s e e t h e d a r k m a n a t t h e t o p o f F i g . 3 ) o f t h e c r i m i n a l o r g a n i z a t i o n m a y
p h o n e a f e w t i m e s t o s u b - l e a d e r s m a n a g i n g l o c a l s e c t i o n s ( M r . A a n d M r . B i n
F i g . 3 ) . F o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e s e t o p - l e v e l c o m m a n d s , e a c h l o c a l s e c t i o n h o l d s i t s
i n t e r n a l c o m m u n i c a t i o n , v i a d i e r e n t m e d i a f r o m t h a t t h e t o p l e a d e r u s e d f o r c o n -
t a c t i n g s u b - l e a d e r s . T h e n , t h e s u b - l e a d e r s m a y m e e t t o a c h i e v e c o n s e n s u s b e f o r e
r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e t o p l e a d e r . M e a n w h i l e , t h e l e a d e r d o e s n o t a p p e a r i n a n y m e e t -
i n g s . I n t h i s w a y , s o m e o n e n e v e r o b s e r v e d i n m e e t i n g s o r m a i l i n g l i s t s m a y b e t h e
a c t u a l l e a d e r .
5 . T h e M e t h o d O v e r v i e w o f D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n
T h e o b j e c t i v e o f D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n i s t o d e t e c t ( n o t o n l y r a r e b u t ) u n o b s e r v a b l e
s i g n i c a n t e v e n t s . I n t h i s p a p e r , I p r e s e n t a n a p p r o a c h i n t e g r a t i n g t w o n e w m e t h o d s ,
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S e p t e m b e r 1 , 2 0 0 9 : 1 9 W S P C / I N S T R U C T I O N F I L E O h s a w a
D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n B e y o n d C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y 7
t o a b r e a k t h r o u g h f r o m t h e c u r r e n t s s t a t e o f a r t i n C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y .
T h e r s t i s a m e t h o d o f v i s u a l i z i n g d a t a b y i n s e r t i n g a r t i c i a l d u m m y i t e m s .
T h e s e d u m m y i t e m s m e a n u n o b s e r v a b l e e v e n t s , o f w h i c h t h e e n t i t i e s a r e t o t a l l y
u n k n o w n . T h e s e c o n d i s t h e h u m a n ' s p r o c e s s o f d i s c o v e r y , w h e r e t h e c h a n c e m a y
n o t b e i n c l u d e d i n t h e d a t a . F o r e x a m p l e , i f t h e l e a d e r o f a c r i m i n a l g r o u p i s u n o b -
s e r v a b l e , t h e i n t e l l i g e n c e a n a l y s t s h o u l d b e c o m e c o n c e r n e d w i t h s o m e o n e c o n t a c t i n g
s u b - l e a d e r s m o d e r a t i n g l o c a l m e e t i n g s ( M r . A a n d M r . B i n F i g . 3 ) . T h e n , t h e a n a -
l y s t m a y m o v e t o t h e s t e p o f o b s e r v i n g t h e l i v i n g e n v i r o n m e n t s o f M r . A a n d M r .
B . I n t h i s w a y , h u m a n ' s i n t e r a c t i o n w i t h t h e r e a l w o r l d s h o u l d b e p o s i t i o n e d i n t h e
p r o c e s s o f d a t a c r y s t a l l i z a t i o n .
B a s i c a l l y , t h e p r e s e n t e d m e t h o d f o l l o w s t h e D o u b l e H e l i x p r o c e s s a s i n F i g . 2 ,
w h i c h h a d b e e n o r i g i n a l l y d e v e l o p e d f o r C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y
1 3
a n d m o d i e d s p e c i f -
i c a l l y f o r D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n . I t b e g i n s w i t h u s e r ' s i n i t i a l c o n c e r n w i t h o c c u r r i n g
e v e n t s w h i c h m a y b e c h a n c e s . O n t h i s c o n c e r n , h e / s h e c o l l e c t s d a t a f r o m t h e e n v i -
r o n m e n t . T h e d a t a a r e v i s u a l i z e d i n t h e c o m p u t e r - g e n e r a t e d M a p 1 o f F i g . 2 , s h o w i n g
t h e c o m p u t e d r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n e v e n t s i n t h e r e a l w o r l d , a n d t h e u s e r b e g i n s t o t h i n k
o f p o s s i b l e s c e n a r i o s b y c o n n e c t i n g t h e e v e n t s v i s u a l i z e d . H i s / h e r t h o u g h t h e r e , o r
t h e c o m m u n i c a t i o n o f p e o p l e w o r k i n g t o g e t h e r , a r e s t o r e d i n t e x t . T h i s t e x t m e a n s
s t o r i e s r i s i n g f r o m u s e r ' s r e a l - l i f e e x p e r i e n c e s c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e s c e n a r i o s d r a w n
i n M a p 1 . T h i s t e x t i s t h e n v i s u a l i z e d i n M a p 2 . B y l o o k i n g a t M a p 2 , p o s s i b l e
s c e n a r i o s c o m p o s e d o f a s e q u e n c e o f e v e n t s i n c l u d i n g u n o b s e r v a b l e c h a n c e s b e c o m e
e x t e r n a l i z e d . T h i s l e t s t h e u s e r b e c o m e c o n c e r n e d w i t h a c e r t a i n p a r t o f t h e r e a l
e n v i r o n m e n t , a n d b r i n g s t h e u s e r t o t h e s t a r t o f t h e n e x t c y c l e o f t h e h e l i c a l p r o c e s s .
T h e e e c t o f t h i s p r o c e s s , t o t u n i n g t h e g r a n u l a r i t y o f i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t c h a n c e s ,
e n a b l e d a p p l i c a t i o n s s u c h a s s e l l i n g n e w p r o d u c t s i n m a r k e t i n g
8
, d e t e c t i n g e a r t h -
q u a k e s i g n s
1 4
, t r e a t m e n t o p p o r t u n i t y o f h e p a t i t i s
9
e t c . F o r D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n ,
w e e x t e n d t h i s p r o c e s s b y p u t t i n g t h e d u m m y - b a s e d v i s u a l i z a t i o n t o M a p 1 a n d M a p
2 . I n t h i s w a y , w e a i m a t r e s o l v i n g h a r d e r p r o b l e m s t h a n w e c h a l l e n g e d s o f a r : D i s -
c o v e r y o f u n o b s e r v a b l e c r i m i n a l l e a d e r s , r e v e a l i n g l a t e n t i n n o v a t o r s , u n o b s e r v a b l e
s y m p t o m s o f h e p a t i t i s , u n o b s e r v a b l e a c t i v e f a u l t s o f e a r t h q u a k e s , e t c .
6 . K e y G r a p h : T h e B a s i c T o o l f o r V i s u a l i z i n g S c e n a r i o M a p s
K e y G r a p h
1 1 1 2
i s a t o o l w e h a d d e v e l o p e d f o r v i s u a l i z i n g r e l a t i o n s a m o n g d a t a
i t e m s , c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o e v e n t s i n t h e r e a l w o r l d . I f t h e e n v i r o n m e n t h e r e m e a n s t h e
s o c i e t y a t t a c k e d b y t h e t e a m w o r k o f a c r i m i n a l g r o u p , K e y G r a p h s h o w s t h e r e l a t i o n
o f t h e g r o u p ' s m e m b e r s o n t h e c o - e x i s t i n g f r e q u e n c i e s a m o n g m e m b e r s . I n E q . ( 6 . 2 ) ,
l e t d a t a D 1 e x p r e s s a s e t o f m e e t i n g s , i n s e r t i n g a p e r i o d ( \ . " ) a t e a c h e n d o f a
m e e t i n g . H e r e , \ m e m b e r 1 " i n E q . ( 6 . 2 ) c a n b e r e g a r d e d a s a n e v e n t t h a t a m e m b e r
a p p e a r e d i n a m e e t i n g p l a c e . R e g a r d i n g e a c h i t e m i n t h e d a t a a s a n e v e n t r a t h e r
t h a n a n o b j e c t i s m e a n i n g f u l i n i n t e r p r e t i n g K e y G r a p h a s a s c e n a r i o m a p , w h e r e
t h e s e q u e n c e o f e v e n t s s h o u l d b e g r a s p e d f r o m t h e c o n n e c t i o n s b e t w e e n n o d e s .
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8 Y u k i o O h s a w a
D 1 = ( s e t 1 ) m e m b e r 1 m e m b e r 2 m e m b e r 3
( s e t 2 ) m e m b e r 1 m e m b e r 2 m e m b e r 3 m e m b e r 4
( s e t 3 ) m e m b e r 4 m e m b e r m e m b e r 7 m e m b e r 6
( s e t 4 ) m e m b e r m e m b e r 2 m e m b e r 3 m e m b e r 7 m e m b e r 6
( s e t ) m e m b e r 1 m e m b e r 2 m e m b e r 7 m e m b e r 6 m e m b e r 9
( s e t 6 ) m e m b e r m e m b e r 7 m e m b e r 6 m e m b e r 9 ( 6 . 2 )
K e y G r a p h t a k e s t h e f o l l o w i n g s t e p s , a n d i s a p p l i e d t o d a t a i n t h e f o r m o f D 1
C o n s e q u e n t l y , F i g . 4 i s o b t a i n e d .
K e y G r a p h - S t e p 1 : T h e M
1
m o s t f r e q u e n t i t e m s i n t h e d a t a ( e . g . , \ m e m b e r 1 " i n
E q . ( 6 . 2 ) ) a r e d e p i c t e d w i t h b l a c k n o d e s . T h e M
2
m o s t s t r o n g l y c o - o c c u r r i n g
i t e m - p a i r s ( i . e . , t h e p a i r s o f t h e h i g h e s t v a l u e s o f t h e J a c c a r d c o - e c i e n t J
i n E q . ( 6 . 3 ) ) g e t l i n k e d v i a b l a c k l i n e s .
J ( X Y ) = p ( X \ Y ) = p ( X [ Y ) ( 6 . 3 )
H e r e , p ( X \ Y ) m e a n s t h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t b o t h i t e m X a n d i t e m Y
a p p e a r i n t h e s a m e l i n e s i n d a t a ( a s i n D 1 i n E q . ( 6 . 2 ) ) . p ( X \ Y ) c a n
b e c o m p u t e d b y d i v i d i n g t h e n u m b e r o f l i n e s i n c l u d i n g b o t h X a n d Y b y
t h e n u m b e r o f a l l l i n e s i n t h e d a t a . S i m i l a r l y p ( X [ Y ) i s d e n e d t o m e a n
t h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t e i t h e r i t e m X o r i t e m Y a p p e a r s i n t h e s a m e l i n e s
i n d a t a . F o r e x a m p l e , m e m b e r 1 , m e m b e r 2 , a n d m e m b e r 3 i n E q . ( 6 . 2 ) a r e
c o n n e c t e d w i t h b l a c k l i n e s i n F i g . 4 . E a c h c o n n e c t e d g r a p h h e r e f o r m s o n e
i s l a n d i m p l y i n g a b a s i c c o n t e x t o f t h e b e l o n g i n g m e m b e r s ' l i f e .
K e y G r a p h - S t e p 2 : T h e M
3
i t e m s c o - o c c u r r i n g w i t h i s l a n d s i n t h e m a p m o s t
s t r o n g l y , i . e . , X o f t h e l a r g e s t k e y ( X ) i n E q . ( 6 . 4 ) , a r e o b t a i n e d a s h u b s .
F o r e x a m p l e , m e m b e r 9 i n E q . ( 6 . 2 ) i s o b t a i n e d h e r e a s a h u b .
k e y ( X ) = 1 0 5
Y : e a c h i s l a n d
f 1 0 J ( X Y ) g ( 6 . 4 )
T h a t i s , t h e s t r e n g t h h e r e b e t w e e n i t e m X a n d i s l a n d Y i s c o m p u t e d
a s J a c c a r d c o - e c i e n t , a f t e r c h a n g i n g t h e n a m e o f e a c h i t e m i n a n i s l a n d
i n t o t h e n a m e o f t h e i s l a n d , i n t h e g i v e n d a t a . F o r e x a m p l e , i f m e m b e r 1 i s
i n c l u d e d i n t h e r s t i s l a n d , s o i t i s r e n a m e d i n t o i s l a n d 1 . I f m e m b e r i s i n
t h e s e c o n d i s l a n d , i t i s r e n a m e d i n t o i s l a n d 2 , i n D 1 . T h e n , t h e c o - o c c u r r e n c e
s t r e n g t h b e t w e e n m e m b e r 9 a n d i s l a n d 1 i s c o m p u t e d o n E q . ( 6 . 3 ) , a n d i s
u s e d i n E q . ( 6 . 4 ) . I n t h e o b t a i n e d r e s u l t , a p a t h o f l i n k s c o n n e c t i n g i s l a n d s
v i a h u b s i s c a l l e d a b r i d g e . I f a h u b i s r a r e r t h a n b l a c k n o d e s , i t i s c o l o r e d
i n a d i e r e n t c o l o r ( e . g . r e d o r w h i t e ) t h a n b l a c k . W e r e g a r d s u c h a h u b a s
a c a n d i d a t e o f c h a n c e , b e c a u s e i t c a n b e m e a n i n g f u l f o r a d e c i s i o n t o j u m p
f r o m a n i s l a n d t o a n o t h e r i s l a n d .
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D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n B e y o n d C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y 9
F i g . 4 s u p p o r t s t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f a s c e n a r i o o f c r i m i n a l b e h a v i o r s , s u c h a s t h e
o n e b e l o w , b y r e c o l l e c t i n g i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t t h e m e m b e r s f r o m e x p l i c i t o r i m p l i c i t
( t a c i t ) k n o w l e d g e o f i n t e l l i g e n c e a n a l y s t s .
\ M e m b e r 1 ; m e m b e r 2 , a n d m e m b e r 3 a r e w o r k i n g t o g e t h e r . A n d ,
m e m b e r ; m e m b e r 6 , a n d m e m b e r 7 f o r m a n o t h e r g r o u p . W h e n t h e y
m e e t m e m b e r 9 m e m b e r 9 m a y g i v e c o m m a n d s t o b o t h g r o u p s f r o m
a h i g h e r l e v e l o f t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n . "
T h e a p p e a r a n c e o f a b r i d g i n g m e m b e r c a n b e a c e n t r a l t o p i c i n t h e a n a l y s t s ' c o m -
m u n i c a t i o n a b o u t c r i m e s , a n d a i d s u s e r ' s n d i n g o f c h a n c e e v e n t s o r i t e m s .
F i g . i s t h e K e y G r a p h , f o r D 2 i n E q . ( 6 . ) , t h e i n t e r n a l d a t a f r o m a c o m m u n i c a -
t i o n o f i n t e l l i g e n c e a n a l y s t s a b o u t t h e c r i m i n a l g r o u p . E a c h w o r d i s r e g a r d e d h e r e
a s a n e v e n t , a n d a m e s s a g e f r o m o n e p a r t i c i p a n t a s a n e v e n t - s e t ( i . e . , a s o n e l i n e
i n E q . ( 6 . 2 ) ) . T h e l a r g e i s l a n d s i n F i g . , i . e . , f m e m b e r 1 , m e m b e r 2 , m e m b e r 3 g a n d
f m e m b e r , m e m b e r 6 , m e m b e r 7 g m e a n t h e t w o g r o u p s a r e f a m i l i a r t o t h e a n a l y s t s .
T h e b r i d g e s o f \ m e s s a g e " a n d \ f o r w a r d s " l i n k e d t o m e m b e r 9 s h o w t h a t m e m b e r 9
c a n j u s t f o r w a r d m e s s a g e s f r o m o n e g r o u p t o t h e o t h e r . O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , w e a l s o
n d i n F i g . t h a t m e m b e r 9 m a y b e a l e a d e r i f m e m b e r 4 i s \ s u p p o s e d " t o b e t h e
s e c r e t a r y . M r . Z d e c i d e d t o c h e c k t h e p e r s o n a l d a t a o f m e m b e r 4 , a s t h e \ o t h e r " c a n -
d i d a t e f o r b e i n g t h e l e a d e r . H o w e v e r , f r o m F i g . , M r . X a n d M r . Y s h o u l d n o t e t h a t
M r . Z w a s \ s u r e " t h a t m e m b e r 4 i s t h e s e c r e t a r y . T h e y s h o u l d n o w c h e c k w h y M r .
Z m a d e s u c h c o n t r a d i c t o r y c o m m e n t s . H e m a y b e t e l l i n g a l i e , o r m a y b e m e m b e r
4 i s u s u a l l y b e h a v i n g a m b i g u o u s l y . T h u s t h e f o c u s o f u n c e r t a i n t y i s d e t e c t e d , a n d
d a t a c a n b e c o l l e c t e d i n o r d e r t o i n c r e a s e t h e g r a n u l a r i t y o f i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t t h e
u n c e r t a i n m e m b e r . I t i s p o t e n t i a l l y p o s s i b l e n o w t o d e c i d e t o p e r f o r m a n e w a c t i o n
f o r i n t e l l i g e n c e a n a l y s i s .
D 2 = t h e f o l l o w i n g t e x t : ( 6 . )
\ M r . X : m e m b e r 1 , m e m b e r 2 , a n d m e m b e r 3 a r e w o r k i n g t o g e t h e r .
M r . Y : A n d , m e m b e r a n d m e m b e r 7 a l s o f o r m a n o t h e r g r o u p . I d o
n o t k n o w m e m b e r 4 . . .
M r . Z : I g u e s s m e m b e r 9 i s t h e l e a d e r o f t h e a l l g r o u p o f m e m b e r 1 ,
m e m b e r 2 , m e m b e r 3 , m e m b e r , m e m b e r 6 , a n d m e m b e r 7 . I a m s u r e
m e m b e r 4 i s t h e i r s e c r e t a r y .
M r . X : I t h i n k m e m b e r , m e m b e r 6 , a n d m e m b e r 7 a r e a g r o u p .
B u t m e m b e r 9 f o r w a r d s t h e m e s s a g e f r o m m e m b e r 1 , m e m b e r 2 , a n d
m e m b e r 3 , t o m e m b e r , m e m b e r 6 , a n d m e m b e r 7 .
M r . Y : S u p p o s e m e m b e r 4 i s a s e c r e t a r y , w h o o t h e r t h a n m e m b e r 9
c a n b e t h e l e a d e r ? ?
M r . Z : L e t m e c h e c k t h e p e r s o n a l d a t a o f m e m b e r 4 a g a i n . "
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1 0 Y u k i o O h s a w a
F i g . 3 . I n t e l l i g e n c e a n a l y s i s s e e k i n g h i d d e n l e a d e r .
F i g . 4 . A n e x a m p l e o f K e y G r a p h : I s l a n d s a r e o b t a i n e d f r o m D 1 i n E q . ( 6 . 2 ) , i n c l u d i n g s e t s
f m e m b e r 1 , m e m b e r 2 , m e m b e r 3 g a n d f m e m b e r 5 , m e m b e r 6 , m e m b e r 7 g r e s p e c t i v e l y . T h e n o d e s i n
a n d o u t s i d e o f t h e i s l a n d s s h o w f r e q u e n t a n d r a r e i t e m s r e s p e c t i v e l y , a n d m e m b e r 4 a n d m e m b e r 9
s h o w r a r e h u b s b r i d g i n g i s l a n d s .
F i g . 5 . K e y G r a p h , f o r t h e i n t e r n a l d a t a . I s l a n d s a r e o b t a i n e d f r o m D 2 i n E q . ( 4 ) .
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D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n B e y o n d C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y 1 1
7 . D a t a C r y s t a l l i z e r a n d T h e D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n P r o c e s s
7 . 1 . D a t a C r y s t a l l i z e r : A T o o l f o r C r e a t i n g D u m m y I t e m s
D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n a i m s a t p r e s e n t i n g t h e h i d d e n s t r u c t u r e a m o n g e v e n t s i n c l u d i n g
u n o b s e r v a b l e o n e s . T h i s i s r e a l i z e d o n t h e p r o c e s s o f C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y , w i t h u s i n g a
t o o l c a l l e d D a t a C r y s t a l l i z e r , w h i c h i n s e r t s d u m m y i t e m s r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e p o t e n t i a l
e x i s t e n c e o f u n o b s e r v a b l e e v e n t s , t o t h e g i v e n d a t a . U n o b s e r v a b l e e v e n t s a n d t h e i r
r e l a t i o n s w i t h o t h e r e v e n t s a r e t o b e v i s u a l i z e d b y a p p l y i n g K e y G r a p h , i t e r a t i v e l y
t o t h e d a t a , w h i c h w e r e r e v i s e d b y i n s e r t i n g d u m m y i t e m s w i t h D a t a C r y s t a l l i z e r . I n
e a c h i t e r a t i o n , t h e s i z e o f e a c h i s l a n d i s i n c r e a s e d f o r r e d u c i n g t h e g r a n u l a r i t y o f t h e
s t r u c t u r e v i s u a l i z e d . I n e s s e n c e , D a t a C r y s t a l l i z e r w e d e v e l o p e d r u n s t h e f o l l o w i n g
p r o c e d u r e .
T h e p r o c e d u r e o f d a t a c r y s t a l l i z e r
k : = 1 ; H i d d e n 0 : = f g ; l i n e 0 : = f g ; M
1
: = a v a l u e p r o v i d e d b y t h e u s e r ;
f o r M
2
= 1 t o M
1
( M
1
+ 1 ) / 2 d o
f o r a l l i j 2 0 , 1 , 1 1 1 N s u c h t h a t j i d o
i f l i n e i a n d l i n e j a r e e q u a l t h e n i n s e r t ( D k i j ) ;
H : = k e y g r a p h ( D M
1
M
2
M
3
: = M
1
/ 2 ) ;
f o r j = 1 t o N d o
I f j 2n H t h e n d l e t e ( D k j ) ;
I f H 6= H i d d e n k t h e n
k : = k + 1 ;
H i d d e n k : = H ;
f o r m = 0 t o k 0 1 d o
d e l e t e ( D ; m ; H i d d e n m \ H ) ;
H i d d e n m : = H i d d e n m n H ;
L e t m e i n t r o d u c e t h e s y m b o l s e m p l o y e d : D i s t h e d a t a t o b e a n a l y z e d w i t h
K e y G r a p h i n t h e f u n c t i o n K e y G r a p h ( D M
1
M
2
M
3
) N i s t h e n u m b e r o f l i n e s
( c o - o c c u r r e n c e u n i t s ) i n t h e d a t a , a n d l i n e j r e p r e s e n t s t h e s e t o f i t e m s i n t h e j - t h
l i n e . H r e p r e s e n t s t h e s e t o f l i n e - n u m b e r s w h e r e t h e d u m m y i t e m s , w h i c h a p p e a r e d
o n t h e b r i d g e s o f t h e c u r r e n t K e y G r a p h , a r e p o s i t i o n e d i n t h e d a t a . H i d d e n i m e a n s
t h e s e t o f l i n e - n u m b e r s w i t h a d u m m y i t e m w h i c h a p p e a r e d o n a b r i d g e o f t h e
K e y G r a p h i n t h e i - t h l e v e l . T h e f u n c t i o n i n s e r t ( D k i j ) m e a n s t o i n s e r t k j
t h e d u m m y n o d e f o r t h e j - t h l i n e i n t h e k - t h l e v e l o f c r y s t a l l i z a t i o n , t o t h e i - t h l i n e
o f d a t a D a n d f r o m d a t a D d e l e t e ( D k j ) m e a n s t o d e l e t e k j , t h e d u m m y i t e m
f o r t h e j - t h l i n e o n t h e k - t h l e v e l , f o r a l l i t s a p p e a r a n c e s i n d a t a D
I n t u i t i v e l y , w e c a n e x p l a i n t h e p r o c e d u r e a s f o l l o w s . C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n h e r e m e a n s
t o p r e s e n t t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p a m o n g i t e m s i n a n d o u t o f ( d u m m y )
t h e d a t a . F i r s t , k , t h e l e v e l o f c r y s t a l l i z e d s t r u c t u r e , i s s e t t o 1 . T h e v a l u e o f M
1
( t h e n u m b e r o f b l a c k n o d e s i n K e y G r a p h ) i s d e n e d b y t h e u s e r ( s ) . T h e n , M
2
( t h e
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1 2 Y u k i o O h s a w a
n u m b e r o f b l a c k l i n e s ) i s i n c r e m e n t e d f r o m 1 , u n t i l a l l t h e n o d e s i n t h e o r i g i n a l d a t a
a r e c o n n e c t e d a n d f o r m a s i n g l e i s l a n d .
F o r e a c h v a l u e o f M
2
, d u m m y i t e m s a r e i n s e r t e d i n t o D . T h e t h i r d a n d t h e f o r t h
l i n e s o f t h e p r o c e d u r e a b o v e m e a n : I f 2 o r m o r e l i n e s h a v e t h e s a m e s e t o f i t e m s ,
t h e s a m e d u m m y i t e m i s i n s e r t e d t o a l l t h o s e l i n e s , s u x e d w i t h t h e l i n e - n u m b e r
o f t h e r s t o f t h o s e l i n e s . T h a t i s , k j i s i n s e r t e d t o t h e j - t h l i n e , a n d , i f t h e r e i s a
l i n e ( t h e i - t h l i n e ) o f t h e s a m e s e t o f i t e m s a s i n t h e j - t h l i n e , k j i s i n s e r t e d t o a l l
t h o s e l i n e s .
T o t h i s d a t a w i t h i n s e r t e d d u m m y n o d e s , K e y G r a p h i s a p p l i e d a s i n t h e f t h l i n e .
T h e n , t h e n e w e s t d u m m y i t e m s w h i c h d i d n o t a p p e a r o n t h e b r i d g e s o f K e y G r a p h
a r e d e l e t e d f r o m D a s i n t h e s i x t h a n d t h e s e v e n t h l i n e s . T h e i n t e g e r k , t h e l e v e l o f
c r y s t a l l i z e d s t r u c t u r e , i s i n c r e m e n t e d i f H , t h e s e t o f d u m m y n o d e s i n t h e o b t a i n e d
K e y G r a p h , d i e r s f r o m H i d d e n k i . e . t h e s e t o f t h e l a t e s t d u m m y i t e m s o b t a i n e d
s o f a r . I f a l i n e i n t h e d a t a i n c l u d e s 2 o r m o r e d u m m i e s , a l l t h e d u m m y i t e m s i n
t h e l i n e e x c e p t f o r t h e h i g h e s t l e v e l a r e d e l e t e d , a s i n t h e e l e v e n t h t o t h e t h i r t e e n t h
l i n e s i n t h e p r o c e d u r e .
A f t e r a l l , t h e f o l l o w i n g a r e o b t a i n e d :
1 ) A n e w d a t a s e t w i t h d u m m y i t e m s , c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o h i d d e n e v e n t s t h a t
c o n n e c t s u b s t r u c t u r e s i n e a c h l e v e l .
2 ) k e y g r a p h ( D M
1
M
2
M
3
) f o r t h e o b t a i n e d d a t a D , f o r a r b i t r a r i l y d e -
t e r m i n e d v a l u e s o f M
1
M
2
, a n d M
3
. B y i n c r e a s i n g M
2
, w e c a n f o c u s t h e
o u t p u t t o t h e h i g h e r l e v e l o f t h e h i d d e n s t r u c t u r e . B y d e c r e a s i n g M
2
, t h e
g r a n u l a r i t y o f t h e v i s u a l i z e d s t r u c t u r e i s i n c r e a s e d .
D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n w o r k s i n t h e w a y l i k e t h e c r y s t a l l i z a t i o n o f s n o w . A c r y s t a l -
l i z i n g i t e m o f t h e d a t a p l a y s a r o l e l i k e a p a r t i c l e o f d u s t , w h i c h c o n n e c t s m o l e c u l e s
o f w a t e r i n a c o l d t e m p e r a t u r e a n d f o r m s a s n o w c r y s t a l . T h e i n c r e a s e i n M
2
c o r -
r e s p o n d s t o t h e d e c r e a s e i n t e m p e r a t u r e , s o t h e g r a d u a l i n c r e a s e i n M
2
l e a d s t o a
w e l l - s t r u c t u r e d K e y G r a p h c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o a w e l l - s t r u c t u r e d s n o w c r y s t a l o b t a i n e d
f r o m g r a d u a l c o o l i n g o f a i r .
7 . 2 . T h e H u m a n - M a c h i n e I n t e r a c t i o n i n D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n
T h e t o o l D a t a C r y s t a l l i z e r s h o u l d w o r k i n S t e p 3 ) o f t h e D o u b l e H e l i x p e o c e s s a s
d e s c r i b e d i n t h e l i s t b e l o w , b e c a u s e D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n i s a k i n d o f C h a n c e D i s -
c o v e r y . T h a t i s , D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n s e r v e s t h e u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f d e e p - l e v e l c h a n c e
e v e n t s , b u t t h e d u m m y i t e m s c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e s e e v e n t s c a n n o t b e u n d e r s t o o d
i f t h e u s e r i s s t i l l i n a n e a r l y s t a g e o f C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y . T h e r e i s a r i s k o f d i s t u r b i n g
u s e r ' s u n d e r s t a n d i n g i f a t o o c o m p l e x s t r u c t u r e i s s h o w n t o s o m e o n e w h o s e e k s s i m -
p l e i n f o r m a t i o n . T h u s , D a t a C r y s t a l l i z e r w o r k s o n l y i f t h e u s e r i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h
u n o b s e r v a b l e l e v e l o f t h e s t r u c t u r e :
T h e R e n e d D H p r o c e s s f o r D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n
S t e p 1 ) E x p r e s s t h e u s e r ' s ( o r t h e u s e r s g r o u p ) o w n c o n c e r n w i t h a c h a n c e .
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D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n B e y o n d C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y 1 3
S t e p 2 ) O b t a i n t h e e x t e r n a l d a t a , i . e . , t h e d a t a f r o m t h e t a r g e t e n v i r o n m e n t , r e l -
e v a n t t o t h e c u r r e n t c o n c e r n .
S t e p 3 ) P r o p o s e s c e n a r i o s f r o m t h e t h o u g h t s o f u s e r ( s ) b y l o o k i n g a t t h e s c e n a r i o
m a p , w h i c h i s t h e r e s u l t o f v i s u a l d a t a m i n i n g w i t h a t o o l s u c h a s K e y G r a p h ,
a p p l i e d t o t h e e x t e r n a l d a t a o b t a i n e d i n S t e p 2 . I f t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s w a n t
t o i n v e s t i g a t e u n o b s e r v a b l e l e v e l s o f t h e s t r u c t u r e , u s e D a t a C r y s t a l l i z e r .
O t h e r w i s e u s e K e y G r a p h w i t h o u t i n s e r t i n g d u m m y i t e m s .
S t e p 4 ) V i s u a l i z e t h e i n t e r n a l d a t a , i . e . , t h e d o c u m e n t e d t h o u g h t s o f u s e r ( s ) i n
S t e p 3 , b y v i s u a l t e x t m i n i n g .
S t e p 5 ) C h o o s e t h e o p t i m a l s c e n a r i o ( b y d i s c o v e r i n g c h a n c e s i f a n y ) , f r o m t h e
m a p s o f S t e p 3 a n d S t e p 4 .
S t e p 6 ) E v a l u a t e t h e s c e n a r i o o b t a i n e d i n S t e p ) f r o m t h e b e n e t / l o s s o f t h e o b -
t a i n e d s c e n a r i o , a n d g o t o S t e p 1 ) i f o n e o b t a i n s a n e w c o n c e r n f o r i m p r o v i n g
t h e s c e n a r i o .
8 . A R u n n i n g C a s e o f D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n
W e t o o k a s e r i e s o f m e e t i n g s i n a f a c u l t y o f 2 1 m e m b e r s , a s t h e t a r g e t d a t a t o
a n a l y z e . I n D a , a p a r t o f d a t a o n t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s a r e l i s t e d , o b t a i n e d i n S t e p 2 ) f o r
o u r c o n c e r n \ w h e r e i s t h e r e a l l e a d e r ? " H e r e , e a c h l i n e c o r r e s p o n d s t o o n e m e e t i n g
b y s o m e p a r t o f t h e f a c u l t y . N o t e t h a t t h e n a m e s a r e a r r a n g e d t o h i d e r e a l i n d i v i d u a l
n a m e s , i . e . , i f r e a d e r n d s a f a c u l t y o f s i m i l a r m e m b e r s , i t m i g h t n o t b e t h e c a s e
d e a l t w i t h h e r e .
D a = t s u b a k i s a r u o g u r a k u w a
t s u b a k i s a r u k u w a k a w a i
k a w a i k u w a n a g a i
o g u r a y o s h i d a t s u b a k i k a w a i x u
x u m a k i m o t o t s u b a k i y u j i
r y o k e n a g a i
( 8 . 6 )
F i g . 6 i s t h e r e s u l t o f K e y G r a p h i n S t e p 3 ) , f o r M
1
= 2 0 , M
2
= 2 0 , a n d M
3
= 2 0 ,
f r o m D a . E v e n t h o u g h K e y G r a p h s e a r c h e d 2 0 h u b s b r i d g i n g b e t w e e n i s l a n d s i n
t h i s s e t t i n g , w e n d a l l i s l a n d s s e p a r a t e d i . e . , n o b r i d g e s a m o n g t h e m . T h a t i s , t h e
f a c u l t y l o o k e d l i k e a s e t o f g r o u p s i r r e l e v a n t t o e a c h o t h e r , i n s p i t e o f t h e b r i d g i n g
f u n c t i o n o f K e y G r a p h . T h i s w a s u n r e a s o n a b l e , b e c a u s e t h e t e a m w o r k o f t h i s f a c u l t y
w a s g o o d e n o u g h t o c o m b i n e t h e k n o w l e d g e o f p r o f e s s o r s a n d m a k e c o l l a b o r a t i v e
p r o j e c t s . T h u s , w e c a m e t o i n v e s t i g a t e d e e p e r l e v e l s i n c l u d i n g h i d d e n e v e n t s . T h e
d u m m y n o d e s a r e n o w i n s e r t e d , d e n o t e d 1 x f o r t h e x - t h l i n e , t o o b t a i n D b b e l o w .
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1 4 Y u k i o O h s a w a
D b = t s u b a k i s a r u o g u r a k u w a 1 1
o s a w a y u j i y o s h i d a x u k a w a i s a n o 1 2
t s u b a k i s a r u k u w a k a w a i 1 3
k a w a i k u w a n a g a i 1 4
o g u r a y o s h i d a t s u b a k i k a w a i x u 1
x u m a k i m o t o t s u b a k i y u j i 1 6
r y o k e n a g a i 1 7
( 8 . 7 )
F i g . 7 i s t h e K e y G r a p h f o r D b . W e n o w n d t h a t s o m e d u m m y n o d e s r e m a i n i n g
i n t h e g r a p h , f o r m i n g t h e b r i d g e s a m o n g i s l a n d s . F o r e x a m p l e , w e n d d u m m y 1
b e t w e e n y o s h i d a a n d o g u r a . T h i s m e a n s s o m e h i d d e n i t e m r e l e v a n t t o t h e f t h
m e e t i n g ( t h e f t h l i n e i n E q . ( 8 . 7 ) ) m a d e a s i g n i c a n t b r i d g e f o r t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e
f a c u l t y . A l l d u m m y i t e m s w h i c h d i d n o t a p p e a r a s b r i d g e s i n F i g . 7 a r e d e l e t e d f r o m
t h e d a t a ( s e e t h e s i x t h a n d t h e s e v e n t h l i n e s i n t h e p r o c e d u r e o f D a t a C r y s t a l l i z e r ) .
F i g . 6 . T h e o r i g i n a l K e y G r a p h f o r m e m b e r s o f a g r o u p .
T h e n , n e w d u m m y n o d e s 2 x f o r t h e s e c o n d l e v e l a r e i n s e r t e d t o o b t a i n D c i n
E q . ( 8 . 8 ) . H o w e v e r , l e t u s s k i p t h e o u t p u t o f K e y G r a p h f o r D c a n d j u s t s h o w t h e
c h a n g e i n t h e d a t a . T h a t i s , d u m m y n o d e s i n t h e s e c o n d l e v e l a r e d e l e t e d i f t h e y d o
n o t a p p e a r i n t h e r e s u l t a n t K e y G r a p h , a n d t h e d a t a c h a n g e i n t o D d i n E q . ( 8 . 9 ) .
H a v i n g t h e t o o l r u n i n t h i s w a y t o t h e t h i r d l e v e l , D e a s i n E q . ( 8 . 1 0 ) i s o b t a i n e d .
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S e p t e m b e r 1 , 2 0 0 9 : 1 9 W S P C / I N S T R U C T I O N F I L E O h s a w a
D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n B e y o n d C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y 1 5
D c = t s u b a k i s a r u o g u r a k u w a 1 1 2 1
o s a w a y u j i y o s h i d a x u k a w a i s a n o 1 2 2 2
t s u b a k i s a r u k u w a k a w a i 1 3 2 3
k a w a i k u w a n a g a i 2 4
o g u r a y o s h i d a t s u b a k i k a w a i x u 1 2
x u m a k i m o t o t s u b a k i y u j i 2 6
r y o k e n a g a i 1 7 2 7 ( 8 . 8 )
D d = t s u b a k i s a r u o g u r a k u w a 1 1
o s a w a y u j i y o s h i d a x u k a w a i s a n o 2 2
t s u b a k i s a r u k u w a k a w a i 1 3
k a w a i k u w a n a g a i
o g u r a y o s h i d a t s u b a k i k a w a i x u 2
x u m a k i m o t o t s u b a k i y u j i
r y o k e n a g a i 1 7
r y o k e n a g a i t s u b a k i 1 7 ( 8 . 9 )
D e = t s u b a k i s a r u o g u r a k u w a 1 1
o s a w a y u j i y o s h i d a x u k a w a i s a n o 3 2
t s u b a k i s a r u k u w a k a w a i 1 3
k a w a i k u w a n a g a i
o g u r a y o s h i d a t s u b a k i k a w a i x u 2
x u m a k i m o t o t s u b a k i y u j i
r y o k e n a g a i 1 7
r y o k e n a g a i t s u b a k i 1 7
( 8 . 1 0 )
F i g . 8 i s t h e r e s u l t f o r D e , w i t h M
2
i n c r e a s e d u p t o 3 0 . I n c r e a s i n g t h e n u m b e r o f
b l a c k l i n k s ( M
2
) m e a n s t o e n l a r g e i s l a n d s , f o r i g n o r i n g t h e l o c a l s t r u c t u r e b e t w e e n
s m a l l i s l a n d s , a n d t o f o c u s a t t e n t i o n o n t h e h i g h e r l e v e l . S o m e d u m m y n o d e s i n t h e
s a m e l i n e a p p e a r i n t h e s a m e p o s i t i o n i n t h e g r a p h , s u c h a s d u m m y 1 2 a n d d u m m y
3 2 i n F i g . 8 . I n s u c h a c a s e , o n l y d u m m y 3 2 s h o u l d r e m a i n h e r e , s o d u m m y 1 2 i s
d e l e t e d f r o m t h e d a t a s e t a s i n t h e t e n t h t o t h e t w e l f t h l i n e s i n t h e p r o c e d u r e o f
D a t a C r y s t a l l i z e r .
A f t e r o b t a i n i n g D e , t h e i n f o r m a t i v e d a t a w i t h u n o b s e r v a b l e e v e n t s , w e c a n r e -
d u c e t h e n u m b e r o f b l a c k l i n e s , i . e . , M
2
, t o o b t a i n F i g . 9 t o s e e t h e l o w e r - l e v e l
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S e p t e m b e r 1 , 2 0 0 9 : 1 9 W S P C / I N S T R U C T I O N F I L E O h s a w a
1 6 Y u k i o O h s a w a
( d u m m y 1 x ) , t h e m i d d l e - l e v e l ( d u m m y 2 x ) , a n d t h e h i g h - l e v e l ( d u m m y 3 x ) s t r u c -
t u r e s o f t h e h u m a n r e l a t i o n s i n t h e f a c u l t y . W e a p p a r e n t l y o b t a i n n e w e r n d i n g s
t h a n F i g . 6 . O n F i g . 9 , t h e t h o u g h t s o f s o m e f a c u l t y m e m b e r s w e r e c o l l e c t e d a s b e l o w .
T h e 3 x d u m m y n o d e s r e p r e s e n t t h e t o p l e v e l l i n k s . F o r e x a m p l e , O g u r a
w a s t h e h e a d o f t h e b i g g e s t d e p a r t m e n t i n t h e f a c u l t y t w o y e a r s a g o , a n d
h i s n o d e i s l i n k e d t o t h e d e a n . Y o s h i d a w o r k s i n c o m p u t e r s c i e n c e , a n d i s
t h e c u r r e n t h e a d o f t h e d e p a r t m e n t . O g u r a a n d Y o s h i d a a r e l i n k e d b y 3 .
T h e n e x t l e v e l ( 2 x ) d u m m y n o d e s c o n n e c t p a i r s e . g . f R y o k e , N a g a i g
W a t a n a b e , S a n o . T h e y w e r e d i s c u s s i n g t h e l o c a l a r r a n g e m e n t s o f d e p a r t -
m e n t s , i . e . , m i d d l e - c l a s s m a n a g e m e n t o f t h e f a c u l t y .
T h e n e x t l e v e l ( 1 x ) d u m m y n o d e s l i n k p a i r s s u c h a s f S a r u , K u w a g . T h e s e
c o r r e s p o n d t o p r o p o s a l s a n d a c c e p t a t i o n f r o m y o u n g s t a s u c h a s S a r u a n d
K u w a , i . e . , b o t t o m u p p r o p o s a l s .
( c o n t i n u i n g t o o t h e r m e s s a g e s . . . )
T h e s e m e s s a g e s c o n s t i t u t e t h e i n t e r n a l d a t a u s e d i n S t e p 4 ) , i n t h e R e n e d D H
P r o c e s s f o r D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n . B y l o o k i n g a t F i g . 8 o b t a i n e d b y K e y G r a p h f o r t h e
i n t e r n a l d a t a , t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s c l e a r l y b e c a m e a w a r e t h a t t h e c o m m o n i n t e r e s t s o f
t h e d e a n ( n o t i n c l u d e d i n t h e d a t a o f m e e t i n g p a r t i c i p a n t s ) , a n d t h e p r e v i o u s a n d
t h e c u r r e n t h e a d s o f t h e b i g g e s t d e p a r t m e n t a r e i m p o r t a n t f o r t h e m a n a g e m e n t o f
t h e w h o l e f a c u l t y . B y l o o k i n g a t t h e c o m m o n o p i n i o n s o f t h e s e h e a d s , i t i s p o s s i b l e
t o d e t e c t s i g n s o f n e w t r e n d s o f t h i s f a c u l t y . I n e s s e n c e , t h e s a m e p r o d e c u r e a s t h e
o n e s h o w n i n t h i s e x a m p l e i s c o n s i d e r e d t o b e a p p l i c a b l e t o o t h e r h u m a n s o c i e t i e s ,
s u c h a s c r i m i n a l g r o u p s , c o n s u m e r s , r e s e a r c h e r s i n a s c i e n t i c d o m a i n , e t c .
9 . C o n c l u s i o n s
D a t a C r y s t a l l i z i n g m e a n s t o e x t e n d C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y t o t h e d i s c o v e r y o f s i g n i c a n t
e v e n t s i n m o r e u n c e r t a i n e n v i r o n m e n t t h a n w e h a v e b e e n d e a l i n g w i t h i n s t u d i e s o n
C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y . A n d , t h e s p h e r e o f r e a l w o r l d a p p l i c a t i o n s l i n k e d f r o m t h i s b a s i c
r e s e a r c h i s e x p e c t e d t o i n c l u d e i n t e l l i g e n c e a n a l y s i s , d e v e l o p m e n t o f n e w p r o d u c t s ,
a i d i n g c o r p o r a t e b e h a v i o r s b y d e t e c t i n g i n t e r e s t o f e m p l o y e e s , e t c .
A r e l e v a n t r e s e a r c h a r e a t o C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y i s E v i d e n c e E x t r a c t i o n a n d
L i n k D i s c o v e r y ( E E L D ) , w h e r e i m p o r t a n t l i n k s o f p e o p l e w i t h o t h e r p e o p l e a n d
w i t h t h e i r o w n a c t i o n s a r e t o b e d i s c o v e r e d f r o m h e t e r o g e n e o u s s o u r c e s o f d a t a
1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1
. T h e d i e r e n c e b e t w e e n C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y a n d E E L D , f o r t h e
t i m e b e i n g , i s i n t h e p o s i t i o n o f h u m a n f a c t o r s i n t h e r e s e a r c h a p p r o a c h e s . I n C h a n c e
D i s c o v e r y , t h e v i s u a l i z a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s s u c h a s K e y G r a p h h a v e b e e n u s e d f o r c l a r -
i f y i n g t h e e e c t o f c h a n c e s , b y a c t i v a t i n g u s e r ' s t h o u g h t s o n s c e n a r i o s i n t h e r e a l
e n v i r o n m e n t . O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e E E L D p r o g r a m m a i n l y c o n t r i b u t e d t o i d e n t i -
f y i n g t h e m o s t s i g n i c a n t l i n k s a m o n g i t e m s m o r e a u t o m a t i c a l l y a n d p r e c i s e l y t h a n
h u m a n .
S t u d i e s o n E E L D a r e c o m i n g t o b e o r i e n t e d t o c o u p l i n g s y m b o l i c e x p r e s s i o n s o f
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S e p t e m b e r 1 , 2 0 0 9 : 1 9 W S P C / I N S T R U C T I O N F I L E O h s a w a
D a t a C r y s t a l l i z a t i o n B e y o n d C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y 1 7
h u m a n k n o w l e d g e w i t h a m a c h i n e l e a r n i n g s y s t e m
2 0
, a n d a l s o i n t r o d u c i n g t h e u s e
o f d a t a v i s u a l i z a t i o n f o r d e c i s i o n m a k i n g
1 7 1 8
. O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y
h a s b e e n i n t e g r a t i n g t h e h u m a n p r o c e s s o f e x t e r n a l i z i n g t h e t a c i t e x p e r i e n c e s w i t h
t h e p o w e r o f m a c h i n e s f o r n d i n g a s u r p r i s i n g t r i g g e r t o n e w a c t i o n s i n t h e r e a l
e n v i r o n m e n t . T h a t i s , h u m a n ' s i n t e r a c t i o n w i t h m a c h i n e i n t e l l i g e n c e i s c o m i n g t o
t h e c e n t e r s o f t h e s e t w o d o m a i n s .
W e n a l l y p r e d i c t t h e m e e t i n g p o i n t o f C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y a n d E E L D w i l l b e t h e
d e t e c t i o n o f u n o b s e r v e d b u t s i g n i c a n t e v e n t s , a s i n t h e c h a l l e n g e o f D a t a C r y s -
t a l l i z a t i o n . A s s h o w n i n t h e j u m p f r o m F i g . 9 t o F i g . 1 0 , t h e c l a r i c a t i o n o f h i d d e n
l i n k s v i a u n o b s e r v a b l e e v e n t s a r e n a l l y u p t o t h e h u m a n t h o u g h t . H u m a n s h o u l d
l o o k i n t o m o r e a n d m o r e g r a n u l a r i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t t h e e n v i r o n m e n t , h a n d i n h a n d
w i t h t h e c r y s t a l l i z a t i o n o f K e y G r a p h . T h i s i s l i k e a s c i e n t i s t i n a l a b o r a t o r y c o o l i n g
t h e t e m p e r a t u r e s l o w l y , c a r e f u l l y m o n i t o r i n g t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l c o n d i t i o n , i n o r d e r
t o o b t a i n a w e l l - s t r u c t u r e d c r y s t a l .
R e f e r e n c e s
1 . O h s a w a , Y . , M c B u r n e y , P . ( e d s ) , C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y ( S p r i n g e r V e r l a g , H e i d e l b e r g ,
2 0 0 3 )
2 . A b e , A . , O h s a w a , Y . ( e d s ) , R e a d i n g s i n C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y ( A d v a n c e d K n o w l e d g e I n -
t e r n a t i o n a l , A u s t r a l i a , 2 0 0 5 )
3 . T h e C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y C o n s o r t i u m ( C D C ) , E x a m p l e s o f C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y ,
h t t p : / / w w w . c h a n c e d i s c o v e r y . c o m ( 2 0 0 4 )
4 . G a v e r W . W . , B e a v e r J . , a n d B e n f o r d S . , 2 0 0 3 , A m b i g u i t y a s a R e s o u r c e f o r D e s i g n ,
i n P r o c e e d i n g s o f C o m p u t e r H u m a n I n t e r a c t i o n s
5 . T h e D a n i s h B o a r d o f T e c h n o l o g y , 2 0 0 3 , E u r o p e a n P a r t i c i p a t o r y T e c h n o l o g y A s s e s s -
m e n t : P a r t i c i p a t o r y M e t h o d s i n T e c h n o l o g y A s s e s s m e n t a n d T e c h n o l o g y D e c i s i o n -
M a k i n g , . h t t p : / / w w w . t e k n o . d k / e u r o p t a
6 . J o s h i , M . , K u m a r , V . , A g a r w a l , R . E v a l u a t i n g B o o s t i n g A l g o r i t h m s t o C l a s s i f y R a r e
C l a s s e s : C o m p a r i s o n a n d I m p r o v e m e n t s , I n P r o c . o f T h e F i r s t I E E E I n t e r n a t i o n a l
C o n f e r e n c e o n D a t a M i n i n g , ( S a n J o s e , 2 0 0 1 )
7 . W e i s s , G M . , a n d H i r s h , H ( 1 9 9 8 ) . L e a r n i n g t o P r e d i c t R a r e E v e n t s i n E v e n t S e q u e n c e s ,
I n P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e F o u r t h I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o n f e r e n c e o n K n o w l e d g e D i s c o v e r y a n d
D a t a M i n i n g ( K D D - 9 8 ) , ( A A A I P r e s s , M e n l o P a r k , 1 9 9 8 ) p p . 3 5 9 { 3 6 3
8 . O h s a w a , Y . , a n d U s u i , M . , : W o r k s h o p w i t h T o u c h a b l e K e G r a p h A c t i v a t i n g T e x t i l e
M a r k e t , A b e , A a n d O h s a w a , Y ( e d s ) R e a d i n g s i n C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y ( A d v a n c e d
K n o w l e d g e I n t e r n a t i o n a l , A u s t r a l i a , 2 0 0 5 ) p p . 3 8 5 { 3 9 4
9 . O h s a w a Y , F u j i e H , S a i u r a A , O k a z a k i N , a n d M a t s u m u r a N , 2 0 0 4 , P r o c e s s t o D i s -
c o v e r i n g I r o n D e c r e a s e a s C h a n c e t o U s e I n t e r f e r o n t o H e p a t i t i s B , i n P a t o n , R . ( e d )
M u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y A p p r o a c h e s t o T h e o r y i n M e d i c i n e ( E l s e v i e r , T h e N e t h e r l a n d , 2 0 0 5 )
1 0 . O h s a w a , Y . , S o m a , H . , M a t s u o , Y . , U s u i , M . , a n d M a t s u m u r a , N . , F e a t u r i n g W e b
C o m m u n i t i e s b a s e d o n W o r d C o - o c c u r r e n c e S t r u c t u r e o f C o m m u n i c a t i o n s , P r o c e e d -
i n g s o f t h e E l e v e n t h C o n f . W o r l d W i d e W e b ( W W W 1 1 ) , ( A C M p r e s s , N e w Y o r k ,
2 0 0 2 )
1 1 . O h s a w a Y , 2 0 0 3 b , K e y G r a p h : V i s u a l i z e d S t r u c t u r e A m o n g E v e n t C l u s t e r s , i n O h s a w a
Y a n d M c B u r n e y P . e d s , C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y , ( S p r i n g e r V e r l a g , 2 0 0 3 ) p p . 2 6 2 { 2 7 5
1 2 . O h s a w a , Y . , B e n s o n , N . E . , a n d Y a c h i d a , M . , K e y G r a p h : A u t o m a t i c I n d e x i n g b y C o -
o c c u r r e n c e G r a p h b a s e d o n B u i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n M e t a p h o r , P r o c . A d v a n c e d D i g i t a l
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S e p t e m b e r 1 , 2 0 0 9 : 1 9 W S P C / I N S T R U C T I O N F I L E O h s a w a
1 8 Y u k i o O h s a w a
L i b r a r y C o n f e r e n c e ( I E E E A D L ' 9 8 ) , ( I E E E p r e s s , L o s A l a m o s , 1 9 9 8 ) , p p . 1 2 { 1 8
1 3 . O h s a w a , Y . , 2 0 0 3 a , M o d e l i n g t h e P r o c e s s o f C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y , O h s a w a , Y . a n d
M c B u r n e y e d s , C h a n c e D i s c o v e r y ( S p r i n g e r V e r l a g , H e i d e l b e r g , 2 0 0 3 ) p p . 2 { 1 5
1 4 . O h s a w a , Y . : K e y G r a p h a s R i s k E x p l o r e r f r o m E a r t h q u a k e S e q u e n c e , J o u r n a