BLF LBG LSA LSE LWH SO

Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF) e.V.

LANDSCHAFTSPROZESSE LANDNUTZUNG UND WIRKUNGEN LANDNUTZUNGSKONFLIKTE UND GOVERNANCE

Datum: 24. März 2017

Foto: H.-P. Ende

Photosynthesis, Brussels, 17th October 2017

Changes in food and nutrition security (demand and supply)

Frank A Ewert, Scientific Director, ZALF

Professor of Crop Science, University of Bonn

www.lap.uni-bonn.de

www.zalf.de

3

Background (drivers of food and nutrition security)

© Fotolia.com, Katja Xenikis

van Dijk & Meijerink, 2014

4

Population

United Nations, 2005 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects

Percentage urban and urban

agglomerations by size class, 2030

Population growth and urbanization

5

Income

OECD. Long-term Baseline

Projections 2014

Income growth

- absolute

- per capita

6

Diets and consumer preferences

The effect of income on diet quality

J.Perisse, F.Sizaret, and P. Francois, FAO (1969)

Sugar

Carbohy-

drates

7

Diets and preferences

Tilman & Clark, 2014

Change in diets

implications on land

use and crops grown

Food pyramid

8

Changes in supply

Where does the additional

food come from?

Change in land use

is limited

www.farmingfirst.org, 2014

9

Changes in supply

Ray et al.,, 2013

Are current yield trends sufficient

to meet future demands?

2,4%

1.6%

1.0%

0.9%

1.3%

10

Changes in supply

Ray et al.,, 2013

Are current yield trends sufficient

to meet future demands?

2,4%

1.6%

1.0%

0.9%

1.3%

Grassini et al.,, 2011

11

Changes in other drivers

Climate

Estimated impacts of observed climate changes (1960-2013)

Indication of climate change

effects on historic yields?

Factors of concern

Temperature- Change

- Variability (spatio-temporal)

Precipitation- Change

- Variability (spatio-temporal)

Others (ozone, …)

IPCC, AR5, 2014

IPCC, AR5, 2014

12

Temperature

Impacts on wheat yields

Basle line + 4°C

Asseng et al, 2015. Nature Climate Change

• Temperature response

• 30 crop models

• Data for validation

13

Impacts of 1°C warming

High confidence for declining yields in wheat

Liu et al, 2016. Nature Climate Change

TemperatureDeclining yields also for other major crops

Zhao et al,. PNAS, in press

Spatial differences in

declining wheat yields

14IPCC, AR5, 2014

Changes in other drivers

Carbon dioxide

Long et al., 2006

Yield increase with

increasing CO2

15www.zalf.de

Changes in other drivers

Water

Increasing demand for water

improve use efficiencies

16

Impact of climate change

(SRES A1B) on net

irrigation requirement for

different crops

(2014-2064) with/out CO2

Zhao, et al, 2016. Global Change Biology

Changes in other drivers

Change in water

demand with projected

yield changes

No increasing yield

trends due to

technological

development

considered yet !

17

Importance of scale and organizational levels

Farm

Crop

Plant

Landscape

Organ

Region

…

…

l i nked

model s

Smart integration of

small scale processes

into complex systems

Food 2030

Nitzsche et al., 2016

Contributing partners

> 300 scientists> 80 organisations18 Countries

Comunitybuilding

Network graph, (Saetnan and Kipling 2016)

MACSUR conceptualization and structure

MACSUR 2

Enhance integration

l i nked

model s

New technologies

• Sensing (near and far)

• Robotik

• IT (soft- and hardware)

• Data assimilation

• Big data

• …

Drone at ZALF

Fluorescence from

different vegetation

(Rascher, 2014)

FLEX/Sentinel 3

Tandem Mission,

Photosynthesis

Study

BoniRob

deepfield-robotics

Food security and emerging

technologies

21

Concluding remarks

© Fotolia.com, Katja Xenikis

Increasing demand for food and bio-based products

High risk of insufficient supply

Need for crop improvement

Integrated approach

part of the larger food system (sectors and scales)

Consideration of environmental implications

Utilizing other emerging technologies