Changes in Presidential Nomination Rules

The Caucus-Convention System

The Direct Primary SystemRank and file voters 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910

Candidates

A: 10%

B: 40%

C: 50%

Trend from Caucuses to Primaries 1912-1996

Election Year

1992

1984

1976

1968

1960

1952

1944

1936

1928

1920

1912

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Pct Dem Delegates

Selected by Primary

Pct Rep Delegates

Selected by Primary

Pre-Reform Era MeanDemocrats = 40.2%Republicans = 43.4%

Post-Reform Era MeanDemocrats = 76%Republicans = 75%

Presidential Election Year

1996

1992

1988

1984

1980

1976

1972

1968

1964

1960

1956

1952

Num

ber

of S

tate

s w

ith B

indi

ng P

rimar

y50

40

30

20

10

0

Pre-Reform Era

Post-Reform Era

The Use of Binding Primaries

Contribution Limits Since 1974

Note: “NL” indicates no limit; “NA” indicates not applicable. Limits on contributions to national party committees and other committees and on total contributions are per calendar year. Contribution limits have been unchanged since the passage of FECA ame

NL$1,000

per election $20,000 $5,000

Recipient

NA NA

Republican or DemocraticSenatorial CampaignCommittee,e or the NationalParty Committee, or a combination of both

$17,500 to Senatecandidate per

calendar year inwhich candidateseeks election

$5,000 NL

$5,000 $25,000

$5,000 NLMulticandidatecommitteec

$5,000per election

$20,000

NLParty committee$1,000–5,000per electiond

$15,000

$1,000

NA

Any other committeeor groupf

Table 2-1  Contribution Limits Under Federal Election Commission Act

Source

Candidate or his/herauthorized committee

National party

committeeaAny othercommittee

Totalcontributions

Individual

Soft Money Collected by Election Cycle1992-2000

Election Year

20001998199619941992

Milli

ons

of C

urre

nt D

olla

rs

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

Dem. Soft $ Raised

Rep. Soft $ Raised

YEAR

1996

1988

1980

1972

1964

1956

1948

1940

1932

1924

1916

1908

1900

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

WinningElectoral

CollegePercentage

WinningPopular

VotePercentage

Electoral College “Winners’ Bonus”

1900-1996

Models of Boundaries on Presidential Power

Prerogative Model(Lincoln)

StewardshipModel

(T. Roosevelt)

RestrictedModel(Taft)

Hypothetical Space Encompassing All Possible Presidential Powers

The Presidency’s Central Legislative Clearanceand Budget-Making Power

Government Agencies

CongressBureau of the Budget(BOB)*

Requests for Authority

Requests for Money

ThePresidency

ApprovedAgenda

ExecutiveBudget

Gov’tAgencies

Pre-1921Post-1921

* in 1970, BOB was reorganized and renamedthe Office of Management and Budget (OMB)

Growth in the E.O.P

YEAR

1997

1994

1991

1988

1985

1982

1979

1976

1973

1970

1967

1964

1961

1958

1955

1952

1949

1946

1943

6000

5500

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

WHO

BOB/OMB

TOTAL

Composition of the EOP

President

WhiteHouseOffice

Office ofManagementand Budget

NationalSecurityCouncil

Office of the Vice President

Council ofEconomicAdvisers

Office ofPolicy

Development

Office ofScience andTechnology

Policy

Council onEnvironmental

Quality

Office onNational DrugControl Policy

Office of theU.S. Trade

Representative

Office ofAdministration

Presidential Management Styles

SPOKES OF THE WHEEL

President

PYRAMID

President

Chief of Staff

Staff

Staff

Staff

Staff

Staff Staff

Staff Staff

StaffStaff

Staff

The Presidential Context *

SPLIT TICKET VOTING *

1900-1996

Election Year

1996

1988

1980

1972

1964

1956

1948

1940

1932

1924

1916

1908

1900

Per

cent

of S

plit

Dis

tric

ts50

40

30

20

10

0

Pre-World War IIMean = 11%

1948-1964Mean = 26%

Era ofDividedGovernmentMean = 33%

Divided Government in the 20th Century

Events/Eras

Post-1968Post-WWIIPre-WWII

Mean

1.00

.80

.60

.40

.20

0.00

Unified

Government

Divided

Government

.24.64.87

.76

.36

.13

*

The Disappearing Middle

CONGRESS

103101999795939189878583

Per

cent

of M

embe

rshi

p C

ross

-Pre

ssur

ed.4

.3

.2

.1

0.0

*

Pre-ReaganMean: 21.2%

Post-ReaganMean: 9.7%

19961953

Inside vs. Outside Strategy*

President PresidentCongress Congress

Public Public(in general or

special interests)

The Exchange Model The ‘Going Public’ Model

Court’s Findings on McCain-Feingold (BCRA)

Topic What BCRA (McCain/Feingold) does

Supreme Court decision

National party soft money Prohibits national parties from raising or spending soft money

Prohibition upheld

State and local party "federal election activities"

Requires state & local parties to pay for federal election activities entirely with hard money or a mix of hard money and "Levin funds."

Requirement upheld

Soft money fundraising by federal candidates and officeholders

Prohibits federal candidates and officeholders from raising or spending soft money

Prohibition upheld

“Sham” issue ads; Prohibitions Prohibits corporations and labor unions from using soft money to pay for "electioneering communications" -- broadcast ads that mention a federal candidate or officeholder within 30 days of a primary or 60 days of a general election and are targeted to that person's constituents

Prohibition upheld

Sham issue ads; Disclosure Requires disclosure of "electioneering communications" (defined above) in excess of $10,000 per year

Disclosure requirement upheld

Contribution limits Increases the dollar limits on contributions from individuals to candidates and political parties

Increased limits upheld

Independent & coordinated expenditures by political parties

Requires a political party spending money in a general election campaign to choose between making coordinated expenditures on behalf of its candidate, OR independent expenditures on behalf of its candidate, but not both

"Choice of expenditure" rule declared unconstitutional

Return

Popular vote winner does not = President

Hayes, 1876 Bush, 2000Return

Harrison, 1888

Granted

T. Roosevelt, Wilson

Lincoln

W. Taft

Power and PresidentsAll the power that might possibly be

granted to a president

Return

Small State “Advantage” in the Electoral College

Wyoming: Population = 500,000

•3 Electoral College votes

•Each EC vote represents

167,000 people.

California: Population = 34,000,000

•55 Electoral College votes

•Each EC vote represents

618,000 people.

WYOMING’S ADVANTAGE: Each Wyoming resident “counts” almost 4x as much in the Electoral College.

Return

President as Chief. . .

(or Head) of State:

•Ceremonial Activities

•First pitch

•Awards ceremonies

•Honoring teams

President as Chief. . .

Executive:

•“Head” of bureaucracy

•Oversees implementation & enforcement of laws

•Hires/fires officials

•Pardoning powers

President as Chief. . .

Diplomat:

•Makes treaties

•Receives foreign officials

•Represents the U.S. abroad

President as Chief. . .

of Party:

•“Voice” of the party

•Raise funds

President as Chief. . .

Commander-in-Chief:

•Head of the military

•Sends troops into conflicts

President as Chief. . .

Legislator:

•Presidential agenda

•Role in legislative process (veto powers)

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