Changing Economic Landscapes

Dr Maurice Mullard Lecture 9

Geography of Present Recession

What sort of RecessionV ShapeW ShapeComparison with Depression of 1929Japan lost decadeRussia 1989

What are the Implications for Globalisation

Thesis that Globalisation after 1990 was defined by USA – liberalisation free trade free markets Washington Consensus

End of History thesis Break of Soviet UnionResponse of ChinaBeijing Consensus

Does Recession means Reversals from Globalisation

Retreat into protectionism warnings of World Bank and IMF

Models Washington Consensus and Beijing Consensus

Beijing Model How is China dealing with Africa

Still a forms of selling commodities oil basic metals

Emergence of China

China now 4th largest economy 4.4. trillion dollars forecast to surpass US Economy 2050

India and China 40 per cent of World population China workshop of the World low level technology cheap goods eventually move up production chain Worries for EU and USA

BRICS

Brazil Russia India China and future of global economy

More democratic in the sense that China and India have large populations

Dominance of the West 800 million in world population of 6.2 billion

Resources Populations as future large consumer markets

The Retreat of the West

Dominance of the West last two hundred years Dominance Resources technology

Hegemony monopoly in ways of thinking culture Enlightenment Break up of Soviet Union US ascendancy neo cons American Century Global GDP EU same GDP size as USA 18 trillion dollars

China 4.4 trillion

Global Challenges

Food – changing diets India and ChinaAfrica agriculture potentialOil producers Middle EastRetreat of US Consumer Export what and to whoGreen Revolution a potential export

industryFailure of Doha Round