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Dr. Schröder presents an agent-based model of the likely future adoption of electric vehicles by consumers in the city of Berlin, Germany. The model is based on psychological theory about the role of emotion in decision-making, on social psychological theory about persuasion and on sociological knowledge about the flows of information in social networks. Model parameters are based on empirical data from focus groups and a representative survey of the population of Berlin. Scenarios are presented about the likely future adoption of electric vehicles based on the simulation of various proposed policy measures. Dr. Schröder considers the potential of psychologically plausible social simulation tools to inform the decisions of political leaders and business managers.
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Changing Minds About Cars
Modeling the Adoption of Innovations in Transportation
Tobias Schröder (with Ingo Wolf, Jochen Neumann, Gerhard de Haan)
University of Waterloo Centre for Theoretical Neuroscience
Free University of Berlin Institut Futur
Sustainable Transportation: Electric Cars
• German national strategy for sustainability • 1 million electric cars on the
road by 2020 • “Showcase Regions”
• Strategic research funding • Technology development –
maintain industry leadership • But also: societal
transformation!
Resistance to Change
• The conservative human mind. • “People want to experience what they already
know.” (Heise, 2007)
• Cognitive Science: • Motivated cognition, emotional coherence
(e.g., Kunda, 1990; Thagard, 2000; 2006)
• Social Science: • Identity maintenance, homophily
(e.g., Heise, 2007; McPherson, Smith-Lovin, & Cook, 2001)
Cognitive-affective Mapping (CAM) (e.g., Homer-Dixon, Milkoreit, Mock, Schröder, & Thagard, subm.)
Free software for drawing CAMs: http://cogsci.uwaterloo.ca/empathica.html
Example: Introduce legal minimum wage in Germany?
Modeling Motivated Cognition (Thagard, 2006 – the HOTCO model)
l Simulating parallel constraint satisfaction: update activation values (-1 … +1) of all nodes in parallel by summing up input from excitatory and inhibitory connections with other nodes.
l Multiple cycles of updating yield stable pattern, which corresponds to agent’s decision.
social democratic conservative enhance purchasing power +.74 +.34 reduce costs for employers +.34 +.74 introduce minimum wage +.76 -.70 don’t introduce min. wage -.70 +.76
Modeling Persuasion: Disliked Sender
activation enhance purchasing power +.74 reduce costs for employers +.36 introduce minimum wage +.77 don’t introduce min. wage -.66
Do arguments change minds?
Modeling Persuasion: Liked Sender
Sometimes, arguments do change minds (, if they come from the right person)!
activation enhance purchasing power +.64 reduce costs for employers +.66 introduce minimum wage -.71 don’t introduce min. wage +.79
Interaction of Cognitive-Affective and Social Mechanisms
Project Design
• Step 1: “classical” marketing research • What are people’s attitudes
about electric cars? • Focus groups and
representative survey
• Step 2: agent-based model • How are people’s attitudes
going to change in the future? • Computer simulation
Step 1, (some) Results: A Typology of Transportation Consumers
(Wolf, Neumann, Hoffmann, Schröder, & de Haan, in prep.)
• High income • Car drivers • Low ecological norm • Not interested in e-cars
• Low income • Low education • Use public transport and bike • Not interested in e-cars
• • Car drivers • Mostly singles • High innovativeness in general • Interested in e-cars
• High education • Use bike frequently • High ecological norm • Very interested in e-cars
Comfort-Orientierted Individualists Cost-Orientierted Pragmatics
Innovation-Orientiented Progressives Eco-orientierted Opinion Leaders
Three Dimensions of Emotion (e.g., Ertel, 1964; Fontaine, Scherer, Roesch, & Ellsworth, 2007; Mehrabian, 1995;
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.01
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.05
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Transportation Decisions and Emotions
Comfort-Oriented Individualists Cost-Oriented Pragmatics
Eco-Oriented Opinion Leaders Innovation-Oriented Progressives
Step 2: Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) (e.g., Bonabeau, 2002; Gilbert, 2007; Helbing & Balietti, 2012; Kiesling et al., 2011)
Please, use !
ABM: • Computer simulation of multilevel interactions in complex social systems • Agents follow simple rules, complexity through interaction in networks
The Decision Model (individual agents) (based on Thagard’s 2006 HOTCO model)
The Communication Model (based on Thagard & Kroon, 2006)
A) Social network B) Communication C) Decision Update
Means-ends
Contagion
Demonstration: The Simulation Model (Wolf, Schröder, Neumann, & de Haan, in prep.)
Computational Experiments and Decision Support
• “Play with” different strategies for policy measures • E.g., purchase price subsidy, tax breaks, campaign
• Assumptions about effect of these measures on mental representations
• Test effects of measures in computer simulation
Simulation Results: Adoption Dynamics
Diffusion Scenarios per Consumer Type
Summary
• Sustainable development = technology + (collective) change of minds
• Resistance to change in social systems results from interaction of cognitive and social mechanisms (emotional coherence + homophily)
• Theory-based social simulation: a pathway to better understanding social systems, enabling better decision-making?
Thank you!
l To collaborators, especially: l Paul Thagard (theorizing and computational modeling) l Ingo Wolf (managed the e-car project)
l For funding: l German Research Foundation l German Federal Ministry of Education and Research
l To all of you for your interest, questions & comments!
