“Changing Natural Gas Pipeline Throughputs in Canada” Presented at 2015 EIA Energy Conference

June 15, 2015 Margaret Skwara, National Energy Board

Abha Bhargava, National Energy Board

•  National Energy Board Act •  LNG Export and Import Licence

Applications (summary and links to LNG export licence applications)

•  Market Snapshots (energy information updates; weekly updates)

•  Energy Futures Report (long term projections of supply and demand; Nov 2015 new release)

•  Regulatory Document Index (submissions, correspondence, decisions)

•  73,000 km of interprovincial and international pipelines.

•  Pipelines shipped $159 billion worth of crude, petroleum products, NGLs and natural gas.

•  Transportation cost of approximately $7 billion.

Source: NEB 2014 Annual Report to Parliament

Source: Map - TransCanada PipeLines; Empress Receipts – GLJ

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Bcf/d Receipts at Empress

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1

2

3

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5

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10

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West Mid West East

Bcf/d

Billion cubic meters per year

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: NEB Commodity Statistics, Gas – Historical Summary be Region

Source: LCIEI; daily throughputs @ Niagara

-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

Month10-06

Month10-07

Month10-08

Month10-09

Month10-10

Month10-11

Month10-12

Month10-13

Month10-14

Bcf/d

Exports from Canada

Exports from US

Source: TransCanada filing to Ontario Energy Board, re: EB-2014-0289, Jan. 16, 2015

Source: Maritimes & Northeast Pipeline; Canada-Nova Scotia Offshore Petroleum Board

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100

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600

Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

MMcf/d Nova Scotia Offshore Production

Deep Panuke

Sable Island

Source: Energy Futures 2015 (Pre-consultation results; subject to change)

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2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039

Bcf/d

Production in Alberta and BC

ex-WCSB Gas

LNG Exports

BC and Alberta Demand

•  •  LNG exports from

Canada; •  Mid-West US market; •  Pacific Northwest. • 

Source: National Energy Board

•  Changing gas flows continue to characterize the Canadian natural gas market. •  Less Canadian gas into the US Northeast market. •  Traditional export points are evolving into import points (ex. Niagara, Chippawa,

Iroquois). •  Maritimes to turn from net-exporters to net-importers of natural gas before the end of

the decade; pipeline de-bottlenecking plans in early phases of regulatory review (FERC).

•  Canadian production expected to increase to ~19 Bcf/d by 2040. Forecast assumes 2.5 Bcf/d of LNG exports from Canada by 2023. 8 Bcf/d of natural gas available for ex-WCSB export.* *Preliminary results from Energy Futures 2015; to be released in November 2015.

•  More Canadian gas will be exported to US Mid-West and US West markets.