,

Chapter 1

The Outlook for OfficeAutomation Technology, 1985-2000

Contents

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Organization of Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Looking to the Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

What is Office Automation? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Understanding the Impacts of Office Automation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The Technology of Office Automation–Present and Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Distributed Information-Handling and Networking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Proliferating Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .The Capture of Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Communication Between Organizations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .How Rapidly Will Office Automation Occur? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The Possible Consequences of Office Automation, 1985-2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Economic and Employment Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Training and Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Organizations and Jobs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Office Workers and Their Workplace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Data Security and Confidentiality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Home-Based Office Work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Off-Shore Performance of Office Work.... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Federal Government Office Automation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .State and Local Government Offices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Small Business and Office Automation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Working Women and Minorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Policy Issues for Congress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Further Discussion: Policy Issues and Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Employment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Conversion to Part-Time, Temporary, and Contractor Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . $ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Labor/Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Health and Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Data Security and Confidentiality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Home-Based Clerical Work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Off-Shore Office Work By or For U.S. Firms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Federal Procurement Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Federal Personnel Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .State and Local Governments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Small Businesses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Women and Minorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ... ... ... ...~. . . . . .

Figures

3

4

5

6

8

111112131314

151517181920212122232323

24

2424262626262727282828282829

Figure No. Pagel-1. Changing Structure of the Work Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3l-2. History of Technology Used in the Office . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9l-3. User Institution Model of Technological Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Chapter

The Outlook for OfficeAutomation Technology, 1985-2000

INTRODUCTIONAmerica has become an information society.

Our economy is driven as surely by the inces-sant demand for information as it is by thecontinuing necessity of converting raw mate-rials into finished products.

The majority of American workers are nowwhite-collar workers, and about 45 percent ofall American workers work in offices. (See fig-ure l-l. ) Office work is rapidly being “auto-mated, ” or computerized. What does this meanfor the productivity of office workers and thenumber of office jobs that will be available inthe future? What skills will white-collar work-ers need? What job ladders will be open tothem? Will the quality of their working lifebe better, or not as good? What new opportu-nities and new problems can we expect, as aresult of sweeping technological change inAmerica’s offices?

These were some of the questions that ledthe Senate Committee on Labor and HumanResources and the House Committee on Edu-cation and Labor to ask the Office of Technol-ogy Assessment (OTA) to conduct a study ofthe growing use of microelectronic informationand communication technologies in office work.

With less than 3 percent of the labor forcenow employed in agriculture and the propor-tion of blue-collar workers steadily declining,the automation of white-collar work inevita-bly raises concerns about the number of jobsthat will be available for the still growing la-bor force in the long-range future. This reportdeals with those white-collar workers who pri-marily work in offices, although informationtechnology is also affecting others, for exam-ple, department store clerks and supermarketcashiers.

3

4 Automation of America’s Offices

But American industry is now participat-ing in a global economy. Competition for bothworld markets and domestic markets is a pow-erful incentive for seeking higher productivity.Microelectronic technology has enormous po-tential for increasing productivity in white-collar work, which is a large and growing partof every industry sector.

The office is the primary workplace for manyindustries, such as banking, insurance, and realestate, but the office is also a vital elementof every industry from manufacturing to farm-ing. An OTA assessment of factory automa-tion, for example, found that”. . . the salariedor white-collar work force will constitute alarger proportion of manufacturing employ-ment “1 in the future. Increased productivityin office work thus would contribute to pro-ductivity and growth in all sectors of theeconomy.

The demand for information will continueto grow. With computerization, the unit costof collecting, processing, distributing, andusing information will decline. More kinds ofinformation will be gathered and used for newpurposes, and many new information servicesand products will be created. Demand for in-formation and increased productivity are twomajor factors in the employment equation; theconsequences of office automation for office

‘U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Compute-rized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education,and the Workplace, OTA-C IT-235 (Washington, DC: U.S. Gov-ernment Printing Office, April 1984).

employment will depend in large part on theinteractions between them.

Just as the successive waves of mechaniza-tion of farm and factory work have changedU.S. society and economy, so will the automa-tion of white-collar work. Social and economictransitions in the past have raised policy is-sues that had to be addressed, and in manycases are still being addressed, by Congress.The new wave of automation will also createboth opportunities and problems that demandthe attention of Congress.

Technological change is also related to ques-tions already on our political agenda, such ascomparable worth and pay equity, interna-tional trade, and health and safety in the work-place. The effects will eventually be felt byeveryone—producers and consumers; manag-ers, professionals, and clerical workers; largeand small organizations; the private sector andthe public sector. The role that informationand communications technologies will play inoffices in the future, and the opportunities andproblems they present, thus concern all Ameri-cans and all of their representatives in Congress.

This report puts before its readers a broadrange of likely consequences of office automa-tion, and calls attention to large areas of un-certainty. It points to some public policy is-sues that are emerging or may arise. Manyother questions must and can be resolved onlyby the informed choices and cooperative ef-forts of individuals and organizations.

ORGANIZATION OF REPORT

After a brief look at the context of office ceptual framework or model that guided theautomation from the perspective of history, assessment. It then summarizes the findingsthis chapter highlights some expectations of the assessment, identifying policy issuesabout the technologies and their development that are likely to concern Congress over theover the next 15 years. It introduces a con- next decade.

Ch. l—The Outlook for Office Automation Technology, 1985-2000 ● 5

Many of these issues are just coming to pub-lic attention and have not yet been widely dis-cussed; specific proposals for dealing withthem have not been put forward. A few of theissues, however, are already before Congressor are apt to be the subject of congressionalconsideration in the near future.

Chapters 2 through 6 discuss the possibleeffects of office automation in more detail.They deal with potential effects on employ-ment levels; the kind of training and educa-tion needed for office work; changes in workcontent, jobs, occupations, and organizations;the quality of work life, the office environmentand labor management relations; and the secu-rity and confidentiality of information.

Chapters 7 and 8 consider two alternativesto conventional offices, made feasible and eco-nomically attractive by office automation. Thefirst of these is home-based work, especiallythe use of the worker’s home as the primaryor sole site for clerical work. The second is off-shore performance of data-entry operations,in which work is sent off to be done in coun-tries with lower paid workers.

Chapters 9 and 10 look at office automationin the public sector— Federal agencies and Stateand local governments.

Chapter 11 is a brief survey of the limitedinformation currently known about office auto-mation and small businesses, an important sec-tor of the economy that is just beginning toautomate its offices.

Chapter 12 considers the implications ofoffice automation for two groups that are likelyto be particularly strongly affected: workingwomen and minority white-collar workers.

Appendix A describes office automation tech-nology as it is now and as it is likely to de-velop between 1985 and 2000.

Appendix B summarizes case studies of theautomation of several offices to provide someexamples of the changes that occur whenoffices are automated. In particular these ex-amples illustrate the variety of offices affectedand the difficult transition stage that occursas offices automate their work.

The summary discussion in this first chap-ter is keyed at appropriate points to later chap-ters, where the reader will find more lengthydiscussions.

LOOKING TO THE FUTUREDuring the present transitional stage of of-

fice automation, there are many problems thatare real but do not require congressional ac-tion. Some of the fears that people have in an-ticipating technological change later provegroundless. Many problems are resolved byingenuity, trial and error, and negotiation be-tween groups that have competing interestsbut a shared motivation to benefit from tech-nology. Structural changes in the economy,on the other hand, can create lasting inequi-ties and conflicts. They can also open up newopportunities to resolve old issues and realizenew social benefits.

OTA chose a 15-year perspective becauseCongress will be concerned less with ephemeral

effects and transitional problems than withlong-range structural changes. These struc-tural changes are likely to become clearly vis-ible only after office automation has beenwidely adopted and organizations learn to useits full capabilities.

Information and communication technologyis itself rapidly evolving and expanding its ca-pabilities. The range of technological choicesthat an organization has for accomplishing anygiven information-related objective is wide.The number of manufacturers and vendors ofoffice automation equipment is large, and thecompetition between them is strong. This sug-gests that the technology of office automationwill be strongly influenced over the next dec-

6 ● Automation of America’s Offices —

— . .Photo credit L/brary of Congress Photo credit. Michae/ J SnJIfh

The evolution of the office environment is shown in these two photos from 1897 and 1980.Perhaps in the future there will

ade or more, by the needs and wishes of theusers.

The as-yet-undetermined characteristics offuture office automation technology will stronglyinfluence the social consequences of the auto-mation of white-collar work. But changes inthe U.S. economy and society are not, or neednot be, entirely technologically determined.They depend in part on choices and decisionsmade by individuals and organizations, andthey also can be guided by public policy.

The conclusions of this assessment are therefore conditioned by unavoidable uncertaintiesabout the choices that users will make, abouteconomic growth, and about future public pol-icies. Major directions in the evolution of thetechnology can be discerned, but when thesetechnical improvements will occur is more un-certain. It is most prudent to assume that sometechnical breakthroughs may come sooner than

be a truly paperless office.

now projected, rather than later, since this hashappened repeatedly in the last few years.

Also uncertain is the speed with which of-fices will adopt new technologies. This will beinfluenced by general economic conditions, butin the last decade office automation has beenless sensitive to these factors than many ex-pected. Because it can be accomplished incre-mentally and with relatively small investments,adoption of office automation may be muchwider, more general, and more rapid than hasoften been the case with new technologies. Thismakes transitional problems more visible andstructural problems more important-e. g., dis-placed workers will have fewer options for ad-justment if their occupations are affected inmost regions and most industries in a rela-tively brief period. It also indicates that deci-sionmakers should now begin to attentivelymonitor the changes that are occurring, in or-der to be prepared to deal with problems thatmay arise.

WHAT IS OFFICE AUTOMATION?Almost any place where information han-

dling is the main activity is called an office,whether it is one person at a desk or a com-plex hierarchy of executives, professionals, and

clerical workers. For the purposes of this re-port, the office is wherever “office work” isdone, and “office work” is the processing anduse of information for the purpose of track-

Ch. l—The Outlook for Office Automation Technology, 1985-2000 7

ing, monitoring, recording, directing, and sup-porting complex human activities.’ One of thestriking consequences of information and com-munication technologies is that together theymake much “office work” independent of theplace where it has usually been performed; thatis, they allow it to be done in the home, in air-planes and trains, and in other countries.

For the purposes of this report, the term “of-fice automation’ is used broadly to mean theapplication of microelectronic informationtechnology and communication technology tooffice work. It includes large “mainframe”computers, smaller minicomputers, personalcomputers or microcomputers, stand-aloneword processors, and the many diverse com-

‘By extension, people also speak of places where otherprofessional work is done as an office–e. g., a dentist’s office.In this report we attempt no rigorous definition of what is oris not office work, but use a commonsense approach. We havegenerally excluded from consideration such peripheral or spe-cialized places of white-collar work as the dentist’s office, thescientific laboratory, and the draftsman’s office.

munication devices and systems that can linkthem together.

The first offices may have been in the homesof Babylonian merchants or Phoenician traders,or perhaps they were construction projectoffices in the palaces of Egyptian Pharaohs.Almost certainly something like an office cameinto existence as soon as records could be keptof the exchange of goods, on clay tablets,chisled stones, papyrus, and quipus.3 Officework is inseparable from commerce becauseit is concerned with gathering, keeping, andusing information about human activities, andparticularly those activities that have to dowith the production and exchange of goodsand services.

If office work began in the homes of mer-chants and traders, it has nevertheless for mostof history been done in central locations closeto the production of goods and services.4 Theoffice plays the same role for an organizationthat the brain plays in a living organism. Itreceives information flowing in from all partsof the organization (or organism) and from theexternal environment, processes that informa-tion and sends back responses, instructions,and commands through an extended nervoussystem—established channels of communication.

At the dawn of written history, clerks andscribes were the first office workers. Informa-tion handling work has always carried withit a degree of respect or status (even whenmany scribes were slaves) because it requiresskills and education that, through most of his-tory, few people had.

The tools used in this work were for thou-sands of years very simple, basically writingimplements and something to write on, andsome means of storing the records written orreceived. As the scale of human activities in-creased, the information about them becamemore voluminous and more diversified. Thetools became slightly more sophisticated (a

3Quipus were knotted cords used by the Peruvian Indians(who did not develop writing) to keep records.

‘One of the effects of new communication and informationtechnology may be to allow office work to again be done inhomes; see ch. 7, “Home-Based Automated Office Work. ”

bookkeeping ledger rather than a stone tabletor roll of papyrus) and office workers becamemore numerous and more specialized. Whenclocks were invented, the work became moresubject to measurement, pacing, and manage-ment control. When electric communicationswere invented, it became less sensitive to prox-imity but more sensitive to time.5 But not un-til the advent of the telephone, the typewriter,and the adding machine, near the end of the19th century, was a significant part of the workautomated. (See figure 1-2.)

The mechanical stage of office automationwas followed by the electromechanical stage,with electric typewriters and calculating ma-chines. The present age of computers begana little more than 15 years ago, and this assess-ment looks forward for another 15 years—together, only about one generation in humanterms, and less than the working lifetime ofa white-collar worker.

Through the mechanical and electromechan-ical eras of office automation, whitecollar workcontinued to be labor intensive. Capital invest-ment in office work has always been low com-pared to capitalization in other economic sec-tors such as manufacturing and agriculture.

‘Note that until the 1840s, and the invention of the tele-graph, it might take days or weeks to communicate with anotheroffice in a different part of the country. Until the transatlanticcable of 1866, it took at least 4 weeks for a merchant to senda message to his field agent in Europe and get a response, andit might take months to exchange messages with the ship car-rying his goods, since he could not know when and where itwould make port.

About 85 percent of office operating costs arelabor costs.

Now capitalization is occurring rapidly, in theform of information and communication tech-nologies that are transforming the nature ofwhite-collar work.

Many other forces have affected office workin recent decades. The scale, geographicalscope, and concentration of economic enter-prise, and therefore of offices, has increased.Some sectors of industry and commerce haveexpanded and some have shrunk in impor-tance. The growing pervasiveness of scienceand technology as components of the economyhas both increased the demand for data andchanged the nature of the information han-dled in offices. There has been a strong tend-ency to professionalize and credentialize manyoccupations.

The office work force has also changed. Theaverage educational attainment of office work-ers has increased, yet the educational gap be-tween office workers and the general popula-tion has narrowed or disappeared. Women,once a very small part of the office work force,now make up the larger part of it. Changesin values, lifestyles-and some claim, the workethic-have affected office workers along withall others in society.

These trends are all important. But tech-nology or the tools people use, have a primaryaffect on their work, how it is done, and howit is rewarded by society.

UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACTS OF OFFICE AUTOMATION

In carrying out this assessment, OTA used of effects: substitution, adaptation, and trans-a simple ‘conceptual model as an aid in look- formation.ing for the possible effects.8 (See figure 1-3.)It suggests that when organizations adopt new The new technology usually replaces an older

technology, there are likely to be three kinds technology or human labor, or both. There aredirect substitution effects, both at the task

‘This model was developed by J.F. Coates and V.T. Coates; level and at the organizational level. As wordfor an example of other as~essrnents in which it has been used, processors and computers replace the typewriter,see V.T. Coates, et al., A Retrospective Technology Assess- bookkeeping ledgers, and payroll systems, andrnent: Submarine Telegraphy (San Francisco: San FranciscoPress, 1980); and V.T. Coates, “The Potential Impacts of Ro- other communication systems augment tele-botics, ” The Futurist, February 1982. phones, there are effects on productivity, size

. .

Ch. l—The Outtook for Office Automation Technology, 1985-2000 ● 9— —.

Figure 1-2.— History of Technology Used in the Office

I (Third phase off!ce automation) 1 Local area networks, integratad systems.

Non-impact printers.(Second phase otflce automation) Software packages for microcomputers.

Microcomputers ●

Optical scannlng and recognittcm equipment ●

Video display terminals for data/text processing ●

[(First phase offtce automation)

1 Facsimiie transmission ●

Etectronic(solid state) calculating machines.

Microchip computera ●

Magnetic tape "seletric” typawritars.

Magnetic tape (replacing punched cards).Magrtetic ink character reoognit@rr (cfteck proof lngfsorfin@ ●

Electronic digitat computers (trsdstor$}.Efeotronic digital computers (vacuum tubes).

I Electrification Era (1920-1960) 1. Data processing - telewriters

c Data processing - computypers● Data processing - paper tape or card:

● Xerographic duplication● Mechanical listing printing calculators, 4 functions. Punched card syatems (e.g., PayrOfl)

● Oict@ting/stenographic machines with plastic belts● Common language concept for business machines

● Bank check sorting/proofing machinesDialing Telephones● ✥ ● ❅ ❃ ▼ ❒

* Machine accounting systems(central records, control, payroll) Multilifh duplicating (offset printinfj

Addressograph/multigraph with automatic f-● Adding/subtracting calculating machines

[Ditto machines (gelatin duplcating)

● Power statistical accounting machine

● Bookkeeping and billing machines (combinations of typewriting

and computing machlnesj

● Loose-leaf leadger Sheet$

I 1● Muttigrapff

(Mechanical Era 1800-1920)● Two-color typewriter rfbbon

. Addressograph● Adding machine, Ilstlng and non-listing

. Hotlerith machtnes {card punch, tabulating and sorting machines). Cash qister

● ComPtometar Oakutattrrg maohirm. M\mtqr@f maoftina @wmil Wttln$ duWMiW

* Pnaumatie tufnis● Qlotating and $tanOgmpW faaohifraa

● Wa@One● Catbon paper

* Typawritar# . stia~ cwpming machine

● Fountain pen

1 I I 1 I I I t I I I 1 I 1 I I I I I1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

SOURCE Off Ice of Technology Assessment

10 . Automation Of America’s Offices

Figure 1-3.— User Institution Model of Technological Change

I ‘Innovativetechnology

technology may bemodified to suit

needs of users better

Institution

adopts technology tocarry out existing

functions moreefficiently

J

lnstitution

changes internally totake better advantage

of new efficiencies

J\

Other institutionsI

may be created, orold ones changed,

to utilize newtechnology

Competitionbetween

institutions

develops new functionsand activities made

possibly by additionalcapabilities of the

technology

I institution

Step I

Step II

Step Ill

Step IV

SOURCE Joseph T Coates, “Aspects of Innovation” Public Policy Issues in Telecommunications Development, ”Te/ecornmunications Po/icy, vol. 1, No. 3, June 1977.

of work force, job content, the skill requiredof workers, etc. These effects are perceived as“good” or “bad” depending on one’s perspec-tive and interests.

The institutional structures, culture, oper-ating procedures, and management expecta-tions at this point still reflect the old work-flow and work process. Tension is createdbecause the characteristics of the new tech-nology are different, and the requirements foreffectively using it are different. Until this ten-sion is resolved, the full benefits of the substi-tution are not realized and productivity mayeven fall. Many organizations are still at thisstage in office automation.

The institution deliberately or “unconscious-ly, ” by plan or by trial and error, begins tomodify itself to suit new ways of doing things.This is the adaptation stage. The adaptationsmay include for example formal reorganiza-tions, shifts in power relationships, adjust-ments in responsibilities, or changes in the wayworkers are recruited and compensated.

Two kinds of problems may arise in thisphase. If significant changes are made quicklyand by explicit decisions, they may evoke re-sistance and resentment from those who losepower or who are uncomfortable with anychange in the status quo, especially when peo-ple do not understand the reasoning behind

Ch. l—The Outlook for Office Automation Technology, 1985-2000 . 11

the changes or have not participated in thedecisions. On the other hand, if adaptationsare not planned, there may be a long periodof frustration and inefficiency before commonsense indicates just what changes are nec-essary.

The third kind of effects, transformations,come about because new technologies are likelyto have entirely new capabilities not offeredby the older technologies. The organizationmay develop new activities, products, or serv-ices, using these capabilities. For example,computers offer not only a more efficient wayto do bookkeeping, but also the capability forcontinuous inventory control, not possible be-fore. They make it possible to target mailingsto special customers, and track the results.Some organizations began, as soon as theycomputerized their own data processing, to of-fer these services to others. This round of ef-fects may bring about the restructuring of anindustry or of the mix of industries within the

economy. The financial services industry,7 forexample, used the new technologies to avoidlegal boundaries between banks, insurancecompanies, brokers, and other elements of theindustry.

Some organizations fail to adopt new tech-nology, even when it becomes the norm amongcompetitors. They risk eventual obsolescenceand failure. For example, mail order businessesthat have not automated customer servicesare in serious trouble. The feedback loop inthe model is important; further developmentof the technology is shaped by the market andby the demands of users. New businesses maybe spawned that specialize in innovative useof the technology, or specialize in helping otherfirms use it.

‘See U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Ef-fects of Information Technology on Financial Services Systems,OTA-CIT-202 (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Of-fice, September 1984).

THE TECHNOLOGY OF OFFICE AUTOMATION–PRESENT AND FUTURE

The dominant trends in office automation,from 1985 to 2000, are likely to be:

●

●

●

●

●

●

a continuing strong movement towardmicrocomputers and toward distributeddata access and data handling, usually su-perimposed on rather than supersedingcentralized automatic data processing;more powerful, easier to use, software;a strong trend toward linking and net-working of microcomputers, minicomput-ers, mainframes, and peripheral and sup-porting systems;increasing choice among technological op-tions for accomplishing information han-dling objectives;more and more capture of data at the pointof origin, decreasing the need for repeatedkeyboarding and centralized data entry;andgrowing capability for communication, between devices, between organizations, andbetween locations.

Distributed Information-Handlingand Networking

In about three decades, there have been threeoverlapping phases of computer-based officeautomation: centralized computing, decentral-ized or end-user computing, and networking.8

Before the last decade, large organizationswere preoccupied with computerizing theirmass data handling and typing, and were de-veloping large systems and a corps of com-puter specialists to run them. This gave riseto the familiar “EDP” (electronic data proc-essing) or “ADP” (automated data process-ing) center, staffed by computer specialists,primarily for batch processing of data and thedevelopment of large corporate databases.

‘The reader who wants a more detailed description of officeautomation technology (but one still intended for the lay reader)and a discussion of the outlook for its development over thenext 15 years, may go directly to app. A.

72 . Automation of America’s offices—

In industries that deliver customer services,such as insurance, this phase is sometimescalled “back office automation, ” since it chieflyaffected the part of the office characterizedby large numbers of clerical workers doing thekind of paper processing seldom seen by theconsumer. They entered data into the com-puter using “dumb terminals’ ’-i.e., usingkeyboards that fed data to a large central com-puter that did the processing. Many organi-zations established central word processingdepartments or pools, in which specialized cler-ical workers took over the “typing” (or at leastthe keyboarding of all lengthy documents) fora department or for the entire organization.

The second phase of computerization beganin most organizations about 1978 to 1980, withthe introduction of small stand-alone wordprocessors and microcomputers or personalcomputers (PCs), used by people who are notcomputer specialists. Software packages al-low people who know little about computersor the arcane skills of programming to drawon databases or add to them, to manipulatetext and quantitative data, to generate tablesand graphic displays, and to exchange infor-mation with other computer users, without thedirect mediation of computer specialists. PCsare increasingly used by managers and profes-sionals as well as by support staff. Many ex-ecutives who would not ever have typed nowuse word processing to draft letters, memos,or reports, or generate reports using spread-sheet software.

This has come to be known by the awkwardterm “end-user computing. ” Today, the use ofcomputers by nonspecialists-end-user comput-ing—is a highly visible trend. End-user com-puting is not replacing central computers, butis often added to or superimposed over a cen-tralized EDP process within an organization.

The third phase is already beginning-thelinking together of microcomputers, and thelinking of microcomputers to mainframes orminicomputers so that they can act (compute)either independently or as an extension of thelarger central processing unit. For the next dec-ade, networking will be a major trend in officeautomation.

Such linked systems can also connect com-puters with printers and copiers, and with out-side communications systems (telex, telephonelines, cables, etc.) to create “integrated officesystems. ” Networking is not easily imple-mented. Because of the wide diversity in hard-ware, software, and interface mechanisms protided by vendors, it is often difficult to connectdevices and systems so that they can “talkto each other” or work together as an effec-tive system. In spite of these problems, in thelast 2 years many organizations have devel-oped “networks” or linked systems, and thetrend is rapidly gaining momentum.

Differences between centralized EDP com-puting systems and end-user computing willgradually blur. The first and second phasesof office automation, considered separately,often appear quite different, but it will becomeless important whether a worker is using adumb terminal, or a PC that is networked toother computers, because they will be able toaccess the same databases and perform roughlythe same functions.

Proliferating Options

Broad choices among vendors, devices, sys-tems, software packages, connecting devices,communications technologies, and service providers now characterize office automation. Thisrange of choice, and the rapid evolution of thetechnology, creates problems for organizationsthat want to plan their automation rationallyover a long period. However, it also allowsoffices to automate their work a few tasks ata time, if they so choose.

Microelectronic office equipment is a highlycompetitive industry, and this has contributedto both declining prices and expanding capa-bilities. The computer industry has becomea consumer industry. Large volume buyers(e.g., the Federal Government) have a less dom-inant influence over the direction of techno-logical development than the cumulative choicesmade by the great number of middle and smallsize organizations. Even within large organi-zations, the purchase of microcomputers andword processors has often been relatively un-

Ch. 1—The Outlook for office Automation Technology, 1985-2000 ● 13

controlled and the authority to choose betweencompetitive brands has often been decentral-ized and dispersed. Thus, considerations suchas the overworked phrase “user friendliness’have become important in the design of officeautomation.

A striking feature of the market so far hasbeen that only a few older office technologieshave been eliminated completely.g Many havepreserved their special niche, often by incor-porating microelectronic components–e.g.,the typewriter and microfiche. Technologiesthat were once separate are converging-type-writers become like word processors that inturn become almost indistinguishable frompersonal computers. Telephones incorporatesmall computers, and computers serve as com-munication devices. No one piece of equipmentdoes everything but nearly all do more thanone thing. As a result, users can put togetherdevices and components to meet specific needs,and there are few obvious limits to what in-formation-handling tasks and functions canbe automated in the long run. Few critical tech-nical barriers exist to future higher process-ing speeds, larger memories, much improvedinput and output technologies, and full com-munication between systems and devices with-out regard to distance.

The Capture of Data

A large proportion of the work in today’soffices involves putting data into computers.Whether data is generated within an organiza-tion or drawn from outside the organization,it usually must be keyboarded into computersfor further processing. This is especially truefor data that is collected on a disaggregatedbasis–orders placed or received, ticket stubs,invoices, checks, transport forms, vouchers,customer complaints, etc. When organizationsexchange information either directly or througha client (e.g., payments and receipts, or a pa-tient sending hospital bills to a health insur-ance provider) the information often must be

‘Reprography has just about eliminated the multilith,mimeograph machine, and carbon paper—but not entirely. Asyet, electric typewriters have not completely eliminated me-chanical typewriters.

rekey boarded even if it came from one com-puter and goes into another computer.

But much of this work is being eliminated,or is likely to be eliminated in the future. In-creasingly, computers are able to communi-cate directly with each other, through modemsor other technological means. A second wayof eliminating data-entry work is to allow (orrequire) a consumer or client to enter informa-tion directly into the organization’s computer.This happens, for example, when a bank’s cus-tomer uses an automated teller machine (ATM)to deposit or withdraw funds or shift fundsbetween accounts, or when he/she uses a homecomputer to instruct the bank to pay his/hermonthly utility bill. A third way of eliminat-ing data-entry work is to have the computerdirectly read typed or printed information withoptical scanning technology; or to enable thecomputer to “hear” and store information con-veyed by voice (i.e., speech recognition). Opti-cal scanning devices are improving rapidly andincreasingly in use; speech recognition tech-nology is in an earlier stage of development,but is already being used in a limited way.

A critical determinant of the results of officeautomation over the next 15 years is the out-look for computer input technology. Data en-try, including word processing, is probably thelargest single computer-related category ofclerical employment today. Organizations areseeking and finding ways to avoid the neces-sity of keyboarding data for a second, third,or fourth time. Beyond that is the possibilityof never having to keyboard it. If this hap-pens, then both the number of jobs dedicatedto data entry, and the costs of data handlingwill decline dramatically-at least, for a givenvolume of data.

Communication Between Organizations

As already noted, one way to avoid second-ary entry of data is for interacting organiza-tions to exchange data directly from computerto computer. For example, a hospital computermay send bills directly to the health insurer’scomputer, which instructs the bank’s com-puter to transfer funds; the bank’s computer

74 ● Automation of America’s Offices—

Photo credit: Bell Labs

One characteristic of office automation is the integrationof computing and communication technologies

then notifies the hospital’s and the insurer’scomputer that the payment has been accom-plished. As another example, the computer ofa manufacturer may receive an order from thecomputer of a customer, then order and co-ordinate the shipment, with the payment han-dled and recorded by direct communicationbetween the computers of the buyer, seller,and bank. A few pairs of organizations are saidto have such linkages operating at present;more are likely to do so in the future.

How Rapidly Will OfficeAutomation Occur?

Office automation may proceed more rap-idly and penetrate economic activities morethoroughly than have other waves of automa-tion. The pace of technological change has, inthe past, repeatedly confounded expectations;sometimes it has been slower than expected,sometimes more rapid. Much depends on theresources required to adopt new technology,the time required to recover the necessary in-vestment, and the economic conditions thatprevail. Particular factors of importance arethe costs of capital and labor; the availabilityof people to use and manage the new technol-

ogy; the structure of the adopting industryor industries, and their competitive environ-ment; and a variety of social and behavioralfactors that can be collectively called organiza-tional culture.10

An examination of these factors in relationto office automation points to a relativelybroad and speedy adoption. The role of officesand office work is tending to increase in everysector (i.e., there is more “paper work’ or in-formation-handling in the production of allgoods and services), and automation can beadopted by and adapted for offices in everyindustry sector. Many kinds of office activi-ties are similar in all organizations-generatingtext, keeping records, circulating memos, pre-paring payrolls, filing, etc. Because many kindsof office automation can be implemented in-crementally, and at relatively low cost, it canbe adopted by small as well as large offices.

There are a variety of reasons for automat-ing information-handling, from reduction oflabor costs, to improving the quality or vari-ety of services, to reaching a larger marketin a given time. If an organization adopts auto-mation for the purpose of providing new serv-ices or products, or reaching a new market,its competitors may feel forced to do likewise.

The effects of technological change often de-pend on how rapidly that change occurs. Prob-lems may solve themselves if there is muchtime to adjust. On the other hand, opportuni-ties not quickly grasped may be forever lost,or problems left to drag on may fester. Laterchapters of this report will point to organiza-tional and behavioral problems that could slowthe adoption of office automation. At presenthowever, it appears that these are largely tran-sition problems for which many solutions arebeing developed.

“’The analysis here and in ch. 2 draws on an OTA contrac-tor report, J.D. Roessner, “Market Penetration of Office Auto-mation Equipment, Trends and Forecasts, ” November 1984.This report is part of an OTA contractor report, A.L. Porter,et al., “Office Automation Outlook: 1985 -2000,” February 1985.

Ch. l—The Outlook for Office Automation Technology, 1985-2000 ● 1 5

THE POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES OFOFFICE AUTOMATION, 1985-2000

Some emerging and potential policy issuesidentified by OTA are of interest because con-tending parties have already voiced their con-cerns, and in some cases, related proposals arebefore Congress. Most of the policy issues,however, are of more long-range concern orare contingent on conditions anticipated butstill in the future.

In relation to most of the policy issues, someattempt has been made to indicate potentialcongressional responses. This is done to indi-cate the range of conceivable policy interven-tions. OTA has not fully evaluated all of thesepolicy options in terms of their own possibleeffects, or the pros and cons of adopting them,either in this chapter or in the course of theassessment.

Economic and Employment Effects

Increased Productivity

By the mid-1990s nearly every office willhave at least one computer, just as nearly alloffices now have telephones. There will prob-ably be a terminal of some kind for at leastevery two or three office workers. Since manyorganizations will by then have adapted theirwork process and work environment to the newtechnology-although restructuring and changewill surely continue—many solutions to cur-rent transitional problems should be available.Office productivity should increase signifi-cantly.

Productivity in white-collar work is difficultto define and measure, as is discussed in chap-ter 2. But however productivity is perceivedby a specific office or industry, significant in-creases as a result of office automation willaffect employment levels, at least for some of-fice occupations.

Employment

There will certainly be a significant reduc-tion in the hours of labor associated with agiven volume of information-handling. The

magnitude of the reduction will depend in parton the technological trends noted above andin part on management strategies.

The reduction in labor will be most signifi-cant in the clerical/support occupations, espe-cially those that predominantly involve dataentry. Fewer lower level workers would in it-self indicate a need for fewer first line super-visors and managers. But the span of man-agement control can also be broadened byautomation of the work process. Thus, fewermanagers may be needed (again, for a givenvolume of information-handling). Some of thetasks of lower level managers can be auto-mated, or be taken over by clerical workerswho are lower paid, so this tier of jobs is againlikely to shrink. Some of the tasks of para-professional or technical workers may followthe same route. Professional occupations areless vulnerable, but not immune to the substi-tution and adaptation effects of automation.

Whether or not organizations have as theirprimary motivation for adopting office auto-mation a reduction (or constraint on growth)in the work force, relatively few can yet dem-onstrate that they have achieved that result.Many have hired more workers. OTA casestudies, internal corporate studies, interviewswith business executives, and reports in tradeliterature have repeatedly shown such short-term inefficiencies resulting when a new tech-nology is introduced into a workplace, process,working group, and organizational structurenot yet designed to use it to best advantage.Yet most evidence suggests that in a giventask, time and labor saving from automationis significant. Some tasks or steps are elimi-nated entirely.

Declining costs and the proliferation of newuses and needs for information argue for astrong and continuing growth in the volumeof information-handling and thus for a steadyincrease in the office workload. The growthin demand for information and the reductionin labor associated with information-handling

16 ● Automation of America’s offices

are two competing trends—both associatedwith information and communication tech-nologies —that will affect the level of futureoffice employment. Which force outweighs theother is surely a judgment call; it may ulti-mately depend on broad economic conditions,other unforeseen technological developments,and choices and decisions made in industry,government, and society at large.

Because in the past, employment growth asa whole has continued through periods of tech-nological change, many economists believethat the number of office jobs will continueto grow strongly in spite of office automation.Others doubt this because of the high poten-tial efficiency of microelectronic technologyin office work (especially clerical work), whichhas always been very labor intensive, espe-cially since the economy is generally not ex-pected to grow as rapidly in the future as ithas in some past decades. For example, a re-cent scholarly article suggests reasons for the“common misconception” that future econom-ic growth spurred by high technology will nec-essarily provide a net increase in jobs; theauthors said, especially speaking of computersthat:

, , . the impact of (new) technologies is likelyto be more widespread than that of past tech-nologies because their cost has declined sosharply relative to their capability and rela-tive to the costs of labor . . . (and) the economiccontext has changed considerably from thepast. ”

The present capability for economic and em-ployment forecasting is not good enough toresolve this very large uncertainty.

Thus, it is possible that there will be continu-ing strong demand for additional office work-ers. The most likely outcome, however, is slowinggrowth in the number of office jobs and eveneventually an absolute reduction in the numberof jobs in offices. While the latter outcome isby no means certain, there is sufficient evi-dence pointing in this direction to justify—

“Russell W. Rumberger and Henry M. Levin, ‘iForecastingthe Impact of New Technologies on the Future Job Market, ”Technology Forecasting and Social Change 27, 1985, pp.399-419.

watchful concern by Congress, and to meritefforts to improve the monitoring of employ-ment trends so that corrective or compensat-ing actions can be taken when and if they areneeded. Recent employment forecasts shouldnot lull policymakers into complacency. Thisis an area fraught with uncertainty.

If the number of office jobs continues togrow, no congressional action will be calledfor; if that growth falters or reverses, therewill immediately be strong demands for Federalintervention. However, early signs of troublemay be missed. At present, the Federal Gov-ernment is poorly equipped to detect or under-stand early signals of problems arising fromstructural changes in the economy related totechnology.

Labor force and employment data collectiondoes not support analysis of emerging trendsbecause it is necessarily collected, aggregatedor disaggregated, and analyzed in categoriesthat reflect the occupations and jobs framedaround old technologies or occupational/dis-ciplinary tools. Census data is necessarily old(in terms of today’s rapid change) by the timeit is available for analysis. Econometric modelsare insensitive to realistic expectations aboutnew technology and the changing substituta-bility of capital for labor. There is a great needfor improved databases, for greater attentionto advancing the state of the art in both tech-nological and employment forecasting, and forbuilding and institutionalizing a capabilitythat combines and integrates those two dis-ciplines. No agency now has a strong capabil-ity of this kind, nor the resources and specificmandate to develop such a capability; more-over, there is very little Federal funding avail-able for research into crucial areas of eco-nomics, social science, and organizationalbehavior related to this area. ’2

The critical question for Congress at presentis not one of immediate interventions, but howto improve the capability of the Federal Gov-ernment to understand, and thus be prepared

“Hearings of the Science Policy Task Force of the HouseCommittee on Science and Technology, Sept. 17-19, 1985.

Ch. I—The Outlook for Office Automation Technology, 1985-2000 ● 1 7

to respond to, technological and structuralchanges that are occurring in the United Statesand other advanced industrial nations.

Conversion of Employee Status

Office automation may enable employers toconvert more employees into part-time andtemporary workers or independent contrac-tors. This allows offices to adjust their laborcosts to a fluctuating workload, to reduce someoverhead costs, and to eliminate or external-ize some secondary labor costs (benefits pack-ages). While some workers prefer and seekopportunities for part-time employment, thenumber of involuntary part-time or temporaryworkers has been slowly and steadily increas-ing. Significant growth in the use of part-timeand temporary work forces could ultimatelyreduce the number of full-time jobs for thosewho need or desire them. It may also shiftresponsibility for benefits and protective mech-anisms such as health insurance, unemploy-ment and disability insurance, and retirementincome to the worker, costs that may ulti-mately have to be assumed in part by thetaxpayer.

Job Opportunities

In some occupations and industries, thosetasks that have historically been at the cross-over point between clerical jobs and lower levelmanagement or professional jobs have beenautomated. In other occupations or industries,office automation has been used to narrow andspecialize clerical tasks or to deprofessional-ize tasks. In this way, some important chan-nels of career mobility (job ladders) have beentruncated. These effects are of special impor-tance to women and minorities. In some in-dustries or organizations those channels haveonly been opened to women and minoritieswithin the last decade, and are looked to asa primary opportunity for escaping from poorlypaid occupations and segregated “women’sw o r k .

Office automation also creates some new cat-egories of jobs, or new specialties within ex-isting occupations. Proficiency in solving problems related to office automation has given

many people the opportunity to create spe-cial roles for themselves and has led to newjob ladders and career paths. Men and womenwith the capability, imagination, daring, andopportunity to rise to this challenge are mov-ing into the upper levels of organizational hier-archies. Whether or not this career path willcreate anew pool of potential senior managersor chief executive officers, only time will tell.

Some of the likely effects on employmentare not inevitable results of office automation,but result from management/institutionalchoices about the combination of technologiesadopted, the way they are implemented, andthe way the work is restructured. But to theextent that the technology may encouragebusiness decisions to be made only on the ba-sis of narrowly framed, near-term cost con-siderations, this could have a negative effecton both long-term productivity and future op-portunities for productive and rewarding em-ployment for many Americans.

Training and Education

A major factor in achieving the full produc-tivity benefits of office automation is the avail-ability of workers skilled in its use. From thestandpoint of organizations and their man-agers, an adequate supply of trained workersto meet future needs is critical. From the stand-point of office workers, access to training andthe ability to master new skills is critical.

In the short term, the training need not belengthy or excessively expensive. The trendin both hardware and software is toward great-er simplicity for the user, and more opportu-nisty for self-teaching based on training proce-dures built into the technology. However,because office automation often brings abouta drastic redesign and resequencing of tasks,both initial and continuing training is essential.

Training provided by vendors and by someemployers is highly system- and task-specific.For the user, this makes training easier, butlimits its future usefulness. Economic pres-sures, however, motivate some employers toprovide no more than minimum training. Many

78 . Automation of America’s offices

organizations, in deciding to automate, haveunderestimated the continuing training andsupport that is necessary, and these costs candwarf the original investment. Some employ-ers also see it as in their interest to make train-ing as narrow, specific, and brief as possible.In that way they have minimum investmentin workers who could then be lured away, andreplacement workers can be trained rapidly.But this practice can also trap workers indead-end jobs and limit their ability to moveup to jobs of wider scope and higher skill re-quirements.

Many organizations are providing their work-ers with ample training both in their own in-terests and from a sense of responsibility totheir workers and to the larger society. Thisis a significant cost to the employer. Whilein the long run it may increase the produc-tivity benefits that the organization seeks, itmay also defer the realization of sought forcost reductions.

Workers just entering the labor force alsoneed training, at least in specific tasks or withspecific systems. Those aspiring to manage-ment positions increasingly seek advancedtraining in business and business technologybefore entering the labor market. In recent dec-ades, there has been a strong trend towardexternalizing training costs and lateral re-cruitment-i.e., depending on colleges andcommercial schools to train workers, and hir-ing from the outside at the management levelrather than advancing people from lower levelswithin an organization. Enrollment in businessschools, vocational schools, and adult educa-tion courses has been rising. The students,rather than an employer, bear the cost of thistraining; but since it is often out of reach forlower income families, this raises questionsabout equitable access.

Public schools and community colleges areto some degree handicapped by the costs ofproviding instructors and a wide range ofequipment for students to learn on, especiallysince the technology is constantly changingand instructors themselves must be continu-ally learning. Commercial schools may be in

some ways better able to respond quickly tomarket changes-i. e., to be able to invest inup-to-date technology and retraining for in-structors. Again, the costs to workers of com-mercial courses, in terms of both money andtime, mean that the most disadvantaged pop-ulations are put at a further disadvantage.

Organizations and Jobs

There is much controversy at present aroundthe question of whether office automation en-hances or “de-skills” office work. De-skillingmeans the standardization and routinizationof tasks, in such away that human knowledge,judgment, and decisions are minimized andthe technology (in this case a computer) directs,controls, and paces what a worker does.

Office automation can be used to de-skilltasks. It is, and has been, so used in manyorganizations that process huge volumes ofstandardized data. More data can be processedin a given time, by less highly trained (andlower paid, more easily replaced) workers, withless variability in outcome and-supposedlybut not always in practice—with lower errorrates. Professional tasks can also be de-skilled,by building sorting rules, decision trees, andanalytical processes into computer processesand software packages.

For the worker, this may mean less job in-terest and satisfaction and increased stress.Factory-like offices could repeat the worst mis-takes and problems created by manufactur-ing assembly lines. However, rationalizingwork (i.e., simplifying and routinizing it) canalso create new white-collar jobs for peoplewith less ability and training than is requiredfor some other office work. These jobs arehighly valued by people whose employmentopportunities are limited, or who are just en-tering the job market.

Office automation can also be used to en-hance jobs, by relieving people of routinerepetitive steps. Jobs can be designed to inte-grate simple tasks into fewer broader tasksso that the worker has a better sense of thepurpose and outcome of the work. Informa-

Ch. 1—The Outlook for Office Automation Technology, 1985-2000 . 19

tion systems can also give a worker access toknowledge that could previously be obtainedonly through advanced professional education,and thus allow a nonprofessional worker totake over interesting tasks previously consid-ered the privileged province of the professional.For example, clerks can use computerized data-bases to search for information that formerlyonly a lawyer, medical doctor, biologist, orPh.D. in history or anthropology would haveknown about. Some organizations are deliber-ately using office automation to upgrade andenhance work at all levels. As a result, theycan sometimes develop a flatter institutionalstructure and reduce the costs of management.

Other kinds of organizational restructuringare likely to occur. There is evidence that adop-tion of large computers tended to lead to cen-tralization of control. Adoption of end-usercomputers could lead toward some decentral-ization of decisionmaking. These shifts in pow-er depend less on the characteristics of thetechnology than on the characteristics of theorganization and its management strategy.

Almost always some redesign and restruc-turing of the flow of work is necessary, lead-ing to shifts in responsibilities, jurisdictions,allocation of resources, and relationships be-tween coworkers and between working groups.Communication patterns within the organiza-tional hierarchy are likely to change. Typicallyproblems arise over “ownership of informa-tion” and responsibility for assuring the in-tegrity of organizational data banks.

There is more flexibility in implementing of-fice automation than in most changes in basictechnology; thus management has an evengreater responsibility for the outcome. Theways in which organizations are implement-ing office automation and redesigning theirwork processes are rich in innovation anddiversity. Results in terms of productivity willbe a matter of debate for some time to come.Some organizations will be disappointed intheir expectations, and this may make othersmore cautious about moving into office auto-mation. But a great deal of cross-learning andshared learning is occurring, and many orga-

nizations may learn from the experience of in-dustry leaders and thus shorten their owntroublesome transition period.

Both in terms of productivity (because ofthe importance of motivation and job satis-faction) and in terms of equity and quality ofwork life, problems of work de-skilling, occupa-tional downgrading, and disappearing job lad-ders could result in serious social problems.The handling of such problems is, in our sys-tem, usually a management prerogative or amatter for labor-management negotiations.Experience shows that the most fruitful strat-egy, both in terms of productivity and jobsatisfaction, is usually some form of workerparticipation or representation in the searchfor solutions. Less than 20 percent of officeworkers in the United States are representedby unions (although the growth of white-collarunions is said to be a high priority for labororganizations at this time). Organizations arenow using or experimenting with other mech-anisms for worker participation in decisionsrelated to technological change and job design.

Office Workers and Their Workplace

With more and more Americans working inoffices, there is growing attention to the qual-ity of work life in offices, to job satisfaction,and to the effects of office work on physicaland mental well-being. Office automation hasaroused some added concerns in terms of thelong-range effects of physical and mentalstress, and fears related to work with computervideo display terminals (VDTs).

Workers using VDTs have increased com-plaints about eyestrain and musculoskeletalproblems. Better workstation design, improvedhuman/computer interfaces, and work breaksfrom long periods of VDT work can greatlyalleviate these problems. There is no evidenceas yet that such problems, while serious interms of day-to-day discomfort, lead to anyorganic deterioration or chronic disease or ill-ness. However, evidence from other occupa-tions with heavy workload and repetitive taskssuggests musculoskeletal strain in VDT workmay lead to chronic health effects.

There has been serious concern over reportsof clusters of reproductive failures and acci-dents among clerical VDT workers. Epidemio-logical investigation has so far not explainedthese scattered clusters; but scientific researchhas failed to find any possible cause relatedto VDT technology.

OTA has reviewed current information andongoing research in this area and concludes thatthere is at this time no good basis for fear ofVDT effects on reproductive processes. Scien-tific research should continue to be monitoredfor new findings.

However, office automation can increasestress on users. Stress is not always bad; itcan be viewed as increased challenge. But someforms of continuing, unrelieved stress areclearly harmful. Concern in the past has em-phasized the so-called “executive heart at-tack, ’ but there is growing evidence that cler-ical workers are most likely to suffer fromcontinued stress. Computer pacing and com-puter monitoring, which result in reduced au-tonomy or control over one’s work and per-formance level, or which induce continuingvisual and musculoskeletal strain, significantlyadd to stress. Fear and anxiety over one’s abil-ity to learn and perform effectively or tochange one’s management and supervisorystrategies, as well as perceived job insecurity,create stress. There is increasing evidence thatlong-term high levels of stress are conduciveto several kinds of chronic illnesses.

Visual and musculoskeletal problems cur-rently can be alleviated through appropriate of-fice and workstation design; stress-related ill-ness or disease is more difficult to control andmay emerge as the greatest public health prob-lem among office workers in the future.

Involvement of workers in decisionmakingabout office automation and work redesign ap-pears to reduce stress levels. Organizationsthat have successfully sought the participa-tion of users at all levels of the organizationalhierarchy have reported that this led to higherproductivity.

In some countries, there is already legisla-tion or regulation related to office automationand quality of work life; for example, WestGermany and France have regulations requir-ing regular eye examinations for VDT work-ers, and in Sweden there are standards callingfor periodic work breaks.

Data Security and Confidentiality

Data security and the confidentiality of datain computers and data banks is a continuingconcern. End-use computing adds to these con-cerns primarily because there is wider accessto data and to means for manipulating it; datadisks are easily lost, stolen, destroyed, or cop-ied; computers are linked to other computersproviding greater access; and small computersare not usually monitored or physically guarded.Control of databases is often separated fromresponsibility for their integrity and reliabil-ity. Most end-users are not as well informedabout the requirements of confidentiality forclient and employee data as are computer pro-fessionals. In addition, office automation oftenallows work to be done away from the office,in airplanes, at home, or in client offices, whichfurther increases vulnerability.

Data can also be destroyed or made tem-porarily inaccessible by accidents, electricaloutages, or natural disasters. As more andmore data exists only in electronic form, andas day-to-day operations become more depend-ent on technology, there is greater need forsecure back up.

Federal agencies, like private sector organi-zations, are faced with new problems in pro-tection of data security and confidentiality asa result of decentralized office automation. Butgovernment offices have, in many cases, beenmore sensitive to this problem than has in-dustry in general. Personal data about Fed-eral employees or agency clients, however, maybe inadequately protected.

There are both technological and proceduralmeans for protecting data. Most organizations

Ch. l—The Outlook for Office Automation Technology, 1985-2000 ● 2 1

have established these with regard to central-ized EDP operations, but often overlook the vul-nerability y of data processed by end-user devices.Organizations moving into office automation forthe first time may not realize the threats untilserious problems arise.

Home-Based Office Work

A special and important capability of officeautomation technology, resulting from the con-vergence or combination of information andcommunications technology, is to allow workto be done at a distance from the office. Theworker’s home can become the primary worksite. Home-based clerical work, with the workperformed on a piece-rate or hourly basis, couldincrease significantly in the next few years. Al-ready controversial, it would then become muchmore so.

The opportunity to work at home is highlyvalued by many workers. Many professionalsnow do part of their work at home, by theirown preference and at their own and their em-ployer’s convenience. This flexibility is mutu-ally beneficial and should be protected. A sec-ond kind of home-based, computer-mediatedwork is the performance of office services (e.g.,word processing, data entry, analytical studies,computer programming, or consulting) by en-trepreneurs who establish small businesses intheir own homes. They sometimes find bar-riers to operating their businesses in the formof zoning laws or confusing tax provisions, butsuch ventures are proliferating in spite of this.Many women, in particular, are gaining busi-ness skills and experience in this way.

A more controversial form of home-basedoffice work is the farming out of clerical officework (e.g., data entry and word processing)to be done in homes, usually by women andespecially by mothers of small children. Home-based workers are often paid at piece-rates orhourly rates. They may be former employeesconverted to the status of independent con-tractor, thus giving up employee benefits.Critics object to this form of home-based workon the grounds that it eliminates jobs for regu-lar employees and constitutes unfair competi-

tion, tending to depress the general level ofclerical wages and preserve the segregationof women into the lowest level office jobs. Theyalso argue that it is difficult to assure the work-ers of safe and healthy working conditions;and that it weakens social pressure for theestablishment of child day care centers, ac-commodations for handicapped workers in theoffice, and other social services needed byworkers employed under more conventionalconditions.

A work-at-home opportunity at present isalmost always sought by the worker, not forcedby the employer. The most common reasonis the need or the wish to combine paid em-ployment with care of children or other house-hold responsibilities. Some home-based workprograms are designed for physically handi-capped or retired workers.

At present only a few thousand people areengaged in homebased clerical work. However,the technological and economic conditions ex-ist for substantial expansion in the future. Ifhome-based workers begin to compete withoffice-based workers for a shrinking numberof clerical jobs, then this issue will be muchmore highly visible and controversial.

Bills have been introduced before Congressthat would encourage home-based computerwork by means of tax credits. The AFL-CIOhas called for a ban on home-based clericalwork. Other groups argue for enforcement ofexisting occupational safety and health lawsand other worker protection laws in home-based work.

There are legal questions to be resolved re-garding the status of some of those designatedas independent contractors; IRS has recentlyruled that those accepting work only from oneemployer/organization must be regarded forat least some purposes as employees, not con-tractors.

Off-shore Performance of Office Work

Some U.S. firms have relocated their data-entry operations to other countries to takeadvantage of low labor costs. Intermediary en-

22 ● Automation of America’s Offices

trepreneurs also make off-shore data-entryservices available to U.S. firms. Recent ad-vances in communications technology are mak-ing this activity increasingly cost effective, andit is also being encouraged by the Federal Gov-ernment as a mechanism for assisting economicdevelopment in Caribbean countries. However,if predicted technology developments reducethe need for large-scale data entry, off-shoresourcing of data entry will probably cease toexpand.

Off-shore clerical work for U.S. firms nowinvolves only a few thousand workers, chieflyin the Caribbean countries but with some inthe Far East and India. With further improvement in communications services, this activ-ity could expand considerably in politically sta-ble developing countries in many regions ofthe world. The governments of many develop-ing countries, and U.S. economic developmentexperts, perceive valuable potential benefitsin encouraging this activity. It does, however,represent a direct loss of U.S. data-entry jobs.

Federal Government OfficeAutomat ion

Effects of office automation will be felt inpublic sector as well as private sector offices.In Federal Government offices these effectshave implications for procurement policy, per-sonnel policies, and budgetary planning. Theymay have implications also for the deliveryof government services, the access of citizensto government information, and the ability ofcitizens to participate in public decisionmak-ing. This report only briefly considers sucheffects on the quality of governance, primar-ily in terms of the possibility that loss of ac-countability could result from erosion of estab-lished bureaucratic communication channels.

Present procurement and acquisition policieshave, in general, allowed the Federal Govern-ment to keep pace with the private sector andto adapt office automation technology to theneeds of Federal agencies. There are some con-spicuous exceptions and some unsolved prob-lems. Chief among these problems are the lackof compatibility among devices, which is ham-

pering networking within agencies and betweenagencies and field offices; and the lengthyprocurement cycle for large systems, whichis out of step with the rapid evolution of thetechnology.

Gains in Federal office productivity are ob-vious, yet hard to measure or document. Someagencies have been able to handle greatly in-creased workloads without a proportionate in-crease in the work force. There are, however,built-in disincentives to achieving maximumcost reductions. Government managers areoffered few rewards, and may suffer subtlepenalties for reducing the number of peoplethey supervise or cutting their annual expend-itures. Grade level or promotion may dependon the number of people one supervises, andunexpended funds may encourage furtherstringent budget cuts.

There has been strong pressure by the Ad-ministration to reduce Federal employment.There are some indications that office auto-mation may have already contributed to curb-ing the growth of the Federal work force. Asignificant reduction in the number of clericalworkers and a change in the ratio of clericalto professional and administrative employeesseem to have occurred, along with changes injob content and skill requirements that arelikely to continue to accelerate.

The Federal Government has a responsibil-ity to see that changes in Federal white-collaremployment, working conditions, and careeropportunities are managed smoothly, equita-bly, and with due concern for civil service em-ployees. There should be continuing reexami-nation of job classifications and classificationcriteria. Uncertainties in future employmentlevels should affect present recruitment andhiring, and projected changes in future employ-ment needs should also guide the planning forretraining and redeployment of present em-ployees. Such changes are not being systemat-ically tracked, studied, or considered in per-sonnel or budgetary planning.

Since 1975 there has been a slight rise inaverage grade levels, which was strongly crit-icized by the Grace Commission as overgrad-

Ch. l—The Outlook for Office Automation Technology, 1985-2000 . 23

ing. The changes in occupational distribution(i.e., a smaller proportion of clerical workers)may have contributed significantly to thisslight rise. Neither the Office of PersonnelManagement nor Congressional Budget Officehas accounted for this factor in their analysisof the grade level rise. If the number of lowerlevel workers has been reduced, and will be fur-ther reduced, then efforts to hold constant theaverage grade level will significantly hinder theability of the Government to attract and holdhighly qualified middle and upper level em-ployees.

State and Local Government Offices

State and local governments are strugglingto manage an increased workload, partly re-sulting from present Federal policies, withouta proportionate increase in staff. The morethan 78,000 governmental units in this coun-try show a rich diversity in approaches to of-fice automation, both in large systems formany governmental operations and more re-cently in end-user computing. Small cities andrural counties are lagging in use of office auto-mation, in spite of the opportunities presentedby microcomputers. In part, this probably re-sults from lack of access to expertise to helpthem in choosing and supporting office equip-ment and training workers.

There is, at this early stage, little informa-tion about the aggregate effect of automationon local and State government offices across thecountry. Evaluations of productivity so farshow mixed results. Some researchers, in spe-cific States and localities, have found evidenceof increased productivity and of work forcereduction, others have not. Some researchershave reported findings of standardization anddepersonalization of government services, ofstrong reinforcement of the existing distribu-tion of bureaucratic and political power, andof increased difference in the relative accessof citizens to government information.

Small Business and Office Automation

The effects of office automation on smallbusinesses are of particular concern to Con-

gress because of the vital role that these orga-nizations play in job creation and in innova-tion. Small computers and improved softwarepackages appear to make office automationmore practical for small organizations, but canstill represent a significant capital investmentin comparison to their assets. The time re-quired to make informed decisions about equip-ment, to redesign work procedures, and to trainstaff, plus the lack of in-house expertise in trou-ble shooting and problem solving are also sig-nificant problems.

Although computer vendors identify smallbusiness as an active and growing market, thereis little empirical evidence about the results oftheir experience with office automation so far.Optimists hope that automation may allowsmall firms to expand their markets and suc-cessfully compete with larger organizations.Pessimists fear that many will incur capitalcosts beyond their ability to support. Theirexperience should be carefully monitored foremerging public policy concerns.

Working Women and Minorities

The effects of office automation are of par-ticular concern to women. Most clerical jobsare now held by women, and one-third of work-ing women are in clerical occupations; theyare vulnerable to displacement. Women nowin clerical positions are trying to move intomanagerial and professional jobs, but somejob ladders may be truncated by automation.In managerial and professional occupationsthat are vulnerable to office automation, wom-en tend to have less seniority than men. Onthe other hand, some new jobs and occupa-tions, offering good potential for advancement,are being created by office automation; accessto education and training for these specialtiesis vital for women.

As skill requirements and training prereq-uisites for traditional office jobs change, theircomparability to other jobs changes, but theseshifts may not be reflected in changes in jobtitles or even in formal job descriptions. De-bate over pay equity and comparable worth re-quires understanding of the changing nature ofoffice work and its changing skill requirements.

Office automation is also of particular in- Minorities, especially Black and Hispanic wom-terest to minorities, and for similar reasons. en, are disproportionately represented in jobsClerical jobs have often been the first step in likely to be directly affected by office auto-white-collar work for disadvantaged groups. mation.

POLICY ISSUES FOR CONGRESS

A number of policy issues have been identi-fied above, and are discussed in more detailin the following chapters. OTA has concludedthat:

Many of the concerns that have beenraised with regard to office automationare transition problems that will be solvedby market forces and by the commonsense and ingenuity of users—they do notrequire Federal action of any kind.Some concerns–most importantly, thepossible effects on future white-collar em-ployment levels—are matters of long-termnational interests. They merit watchful at-tention, and Congress should begin nowto make sure that the nation is preparedto deal with them if and when conditionswarrant action. This however will be dif-ficult to do, because the capability to de-tect and understand emerging structuralchange in the economy is poor. Better eco-nomic and employment data and develop-ment of improved forecasting techniquesare urgently needed.There are a few specific issues of immedi-ate concern; some of them are already thesubject of legislative proposals before Con-gress or State legislatures. These include,for example:–documented or suspected health prob-

lems associated with office automation,

●

●

●

—proposals to encourage or to ban home-based office work, and

–largely unexamined relationships be-tween pay equity and comparable worthquestions and the changes associatedwith office automation.

There are also specific issues of concernto Congress in its oversight of Federalagencies and activities, including:—the implications of Federal office auto-

mation for procurement, personnel, andbudgetary policies, and

—adequacy of present provisions to as-sure data security and confidentialityand continuation of Federal functionsunder emergency conditions.

An emerging issue, which may becomemore important and more controversial inthe near future is the beginning trendtoward off-shore sourcing of data-entrywork.There are several groups for whom theeffects of office automatic are particu-larly important and whose interests meritspecial attention:—women in clerical, managerial, and pro-

fessional office positions,—minority workers, and—small business firms.

FURTHER DISCUSSION: POLICY ISSUES AND QUESTIONS

Employmentfice jobs is already affecting large numbers

In the immediate future, the anticipated ef- of people. It is therefore attractive to thinkfects on employment are only possible or prob- of immediate actions that would position Con-able. There is little evidence that decline in gress to act in timely fashion when and if thegrowth in, or reduction of, the number of of- need becomes real. A prudent preparatory

Ch. 1—The Outlook for Office Automation Technology, 1985-2000 25

strategy would be systematic monitoring andresearch to clarify the emerging effects of of-fice automation and provide an alarm signalif they seem likely to exceed acceptable limits.This would require actions to improve the col-lection and collating of occupational and em-ployment data, and improved mechanisms formonitoring and analyzing structural changesin the economy.

It is difficult to track and demonstrate evenlong established employment trends becausethe kinds of data collected by the Bureau ofthe Census, the Bureau of Labor Statistics,and other government agencies change overtime. The way in which those data are aggre-gated or disaggregated, and the way they arelabeled also change. The various bureaus andagencies differ, at any one time, in the waythey define categories, so that their data oftencannot be compared and the data from oneagency cannot be used to augment and sup-plement, or explain, data from another agency.For example, cashiers may or may not be in-cluded with other clericals; “Federal employ-ees’ may or may not include postal workersand congressional employees; part-time work-ers may or may not be distinguished from full-time workers. Sometimes only a highly spe-cialized data expert can disentangle employ-ment data to address a simple question; somequestions cannot be answered at all becausedata does not exist. It maybe impossible, forexample, to determine when, and under whatconditions, blacks entered office employmentin significant numbers because no records ofblack/white employment were made until re-cent years.

What data is collected and how it is recordeddepends, of course, on what questions one ex-pects to address. At the present time, no Fed-eral agency has a clear mandate, nor the avail-able resources, to develop an indepth capabilityfor economic and employment forecasting ofthe kind Congress and the executive branchwill need in a future in which technologicalchange will be continuing and rapid, and willhave pervasive effects on all economic activi-ties. Those agencies with primary responsi-bility for collecting economic and demographic

data have little capability, and few resources,for understanding advanced technology andthe way it is likely to evolve in the future. TheFederal agencies with the most highly devel-oped knowledge of new technology, includingcomputer technology, have no clear mandate,little capability, and few resources for analyz-ing economic and employment effects. More-over, the primary government source of fore-casts of commercial information technology,the institute of computer Science and Tech-nology of the National Bureau of Standards,has recently suffered a severe cut in supportof its planning and forecasting functions.

This indicates that the ability of Congressto be apprised of disturbing trends in officeemployment, or the broader area of whitecollaremployment, should they occur, is not likelyto improve in the future unless steps are takento ensure that this capability is being devel-oped within Government or that support isavailable for such research and analysis out-side of the Government.

If it should become clear at some future pointthat white-collar employment is indeed notgrowing, or if there are signs of increasingstructural unemployment, then Congress willneed to consider interventions. At a minimumit may be necessary to take steps to assurethat changes in employment opportunities donot differentially burden certain groups ofworkers, for example, women and minorityworkers. Workers in low-level clerical jobs mayneed special assistance in finding other em-ployment. Steps may be needed to assure thatthere are entry level jobs for untrained work-ers, with on-the-job training opportunities.

Sometime within the next 15 years it couldbecome necessary for Congress to take posi-tive steps to deal with a declining number ofoffice jobs or white-collar jobs, whether or notthe economy as a whole remains strong. Whatsteps are appropriate will, however, dependin part on whether there are available jobs inother employment sectors for which officeworkers may be retrained. The many strate-gies for consideration in responding to highlevels of employment have not been a focus

26 Automation of America’s Offices

of this assessment; they have been discussedmany times in many places in continuing de-bates about long-range employment policy.They include “share the work” or shortenedworkweek strategies, strategies to stimulateeconomic growth and the creation of new in-dustries, and strategies to ensure or augmentfamily incomes. Most discussions of such pol-icy actions in the past have focused on blue--collar unemployment. Their use to deal withwhitecollar unemployment would require careful consideration of the economic, social, andpolitical conditions under which they wouldoperate.

Conversion to Part-Time, Temporary,and Contractor Status

A large increase in the number of full-timejobs lost to part-time or temporary workerswithout worker protection mechanisms (per-haps Occurring due to office automation) couldultimately burden taxpayers or lead to degra-dation in the level of social well-being. If Con-gress chooses to intervene, it could constrainconversions of employees to other status bylegislative confirmation of recent IRS rulingsthat an independent contractor accepting workfrom only one organization is in fact an em-ployee; a mandatory minimum ratio betweenfull-time and part-time or temporary employ-ment; or mandatory pro-rating of benefitspackages and social security contributions. Al-ternatively, Congress could alleviate some ofthe problems of involuntary part-time employ-ment by further actions to encourage or re-quire Voluntary Reduced Work Time arrange-ments, making involuntary part-timers eligiblefor partial unemployment benefits.

Training

Because continuing training and educationare essential both to realize the productivitygains that office automation promises, and toalleviate undesirable effects on employment,Congress may want to consider actions toassist public school systems in planning andupgrading white-collar vocational training; en-courage school systems and community col-

leges to provide retraining and continuingtraining programs; establish accreditation forcommercial wh.itecollar vocational schools; ordirect the Departments of Labor and Educa-tion to develop guidelines for vendors and em-ployers in designing training programs. Shouldthere be signs of developing structural unem-ployment among clerical workers, Congressmight then consider providing loans or otherassistance to white-collar workers seekingtraining or retraining to move into other jobsand occupations.

Labor /Management

In general, the transitional problems in-volved in changing the technological base ofan organization are best solved by the cooper-ative efforts of managers and workers in rede-signing the work process and organizationalstructure. The public interest in this processis that of realizing the promise of increasedproductivity for the economy and encourag-ing fair play for those whose jobs and occupa-tions will be affected. Because most officeworkers are not represented by unions, man-agement has a particular need and responsi-bility to provide opportunities and mecha-nisms for involving employees in decisionsabout technology and its implementation. Giv-en a minimal Federal role, Congress may wishto consider the desirability of educational orinformation programs for employers, employ-ees, and their associations with regard to prob-lems associated with office automation andstrategies that organizations have successfullyused for alleviating them. Other possibilitiesto be considered under some circumstances areclarification of worker rights under existinglabor-management negotiation procedures, orchanges in labor law to require worker involve-ment in technology-related decisions.

Health and Safety

In view of the concern about suspected haz-ards associated with computers and VDTS, op-tions for Congress to consider include: 1) a pub-lic information program to inform employersand office employees about what is known

.Ch. 1— The Outlook for Office Automation Technology, 1985-2000 . 27

about the effects of office work on health andwell-being, and what can be done to reducevisual and musculoskeletal strain and psycho-logical stress; and 2) directing the OccupationalSafety and Health Administration to developergonomic advisories, guidelines, or standardsfor use in public and private sector offices andin design of equipment and furniture used inoffice automation.

If these actions and self-initiated organiza-tional management actions to alleviate theseconcerns are inadequate, then Congress maywish to consider legislation limiting the num-ber of hours that workers can be required tospend continuously in VDT use.

In any case, because scientific evidence isstill equivocal, and significant risks involvedin computerized office work would affect alarge proportion of Americans, Congress couldsupport the funding of research on the rela-tion of stress to chronic disease and illnessand on the possibility y of reproductive hazardsrelated to VDT use. It may also wish to estab-lish national mechanisms to monitor the healthstatus of American office workers.

Data Security and Confidentiality

Previous actions to increase data securityand ensure confidentiality in the handling ofinformation about citizens have concentratedon risks from large centralized computer oper-ations. Most organizations have been slow torecognize additional risks to confidentialityand security that come with decentralized com-puters. These risks are largely related to theincreased access to organizational data banks;the portability of data storage media; and thelack of knowledge among general users aboutprivacy laws, the principles of confidentiality,and established practices for safeguardingdata. Information about clients, employees,and corporate resources and activities is sub-ject to compromise or misuse. Organizationsneed to develop policies and practices that bet-ter protect the confidentiality and security ofdata that is processed or stored by small com-puters or other end-user devices.

Existing Federal privacy and security lawsare largely designed to strengthen the abilityof an individual to challenge the use of infor-mation about himself or herself. If lack ofattention by organizations to data protectionin decentralized computing leads to seriousabuses, Congress may need to consider morestringent data protection laws, including lia-bility for breaches of privacy and security.

Home-Based Clerical Work

Because this activity is already controver-sial, Congress may have to formulate policyregarding it within the next several years.Proposals have been made in Congress to pro-vide tax credits for the purchase of computersfor home-based work (and other nonrecrea-tional uses). Other ways to encourage home-based work include legislative actions void-ing IRS rulings and court decisions that makemany home-based workers employees ratherthan independent contractors, and removal ofother regulatory or tax barriers to home-basedwork.

However, Congress may instead wish to dis-courage home-based computer-mediated cler-ical work. It could then consider a ban on paidcomputer-related employment when the pri-mary or sole work site is the worker’s home,but would probably wish to distinguish thisemployment from similar activities designedto establish entrepreneurial small businesses.Congress may, instead, wish to clarify throughlegislation the conditions under which home-based workers are employees entitled to thenormal worker protections afforded by law andequity, and to require pro-rated benefits forworkers accepting work to be done in theirhomes.

Instead of banning or strongly discourag-ing home-based office work, Congress couldinsist on rigorous application and enforcementof existing worker protection laws and regu-lations to home-based work, including wageand hour laws, occupational safety and healthregulations, and all applicable reporting re-quirements. This strategy would require

—

strengthening the resources and capabilitiesavailable to enforcement agencies.

Rather than banning or discouraging home-based work, Congress could adopt a strategyof increasing the range of employment optionsfor workers through tax deductions or provi-sion of day care centers; alternative means ofcaring for children, aged, or disabled depend-ents; and by further acting to increase main-stream employment opportunities for handi-capped workers.

Off-Shore Office Work By orFor U.S. Firms

The issue to be resolved here involves thedesire for cost-saving for U.S. firms and eco-nomic development in Third World Countriesv. the demand for preservation of clerical jobsin the United States. Congress may wish toencourage off-shore sourcing, which could bedone by extending further technical assistanceand information to interested companies in theUnited States and to development officials inprospective host countries, or merely by tak-ing no action that would counter presentlyfavorable market forces.

If Congress wishes, on the other hand, todiscourage off-shore sourcing, it could do sothrough restrictions on data flow; additionalprivacy protection laws, requirement for moreextensive security measures, etc.; regulationsanalogous to “local content” or “buy national’requirements; imposition of taxes or tariffs,such as value-added taxes or trigger price tar-iffs; limitations on the availability or use ofdedicated telecommunications lines; or an out-right ban on offshore sourcing.

Federal Procurement Policy

The present procurement policy for automat-ing Federal offices has worked well, but thereare some problems impeding further progress.Congress may want to consider asking theGeneral Accounting Office and the Congres-sional Budget Office (CBO) to reexamine theeffects of present procurement policies and reg-ulations on the ability of Federal agencies to

procure state-of-the-art systems, and to plantoward integration and networking of Federalmicrocomputers and related devices.

Federal Personnel Policy

To assure that emerging effects of officeautomation are effectively managed, with fullregard for the rights and interests of civil serv-ice employees, Congress may want to considerasking the Office of Management and Budget,the Office of Personnel Management, and CBOto conduct studies and prepare recommenda-tions for changes in personnel recruitment,retention, job classification, and promotion andcompensation policies to reflect changes in per-sonnel needs, job content, and skills require-ments resulting from office automation.

State and Local Governments

Federal policy is to shift responsibility formany decisions and programs to the local level.To handle these programs effectively and atthe lowest cost to themselves, local govern-ments need to increase office productivity.Small government units are lagging in auto-mation. Congress may want to consider blockgrants to State governments for this purpose,direct technical assistance to small city andcounty government units, or other means ofassisting small governments in office auto-mation.

Small Businesses

Although there is a risk that small busi-nesses will create fewer jobs if they are en-couraged to automate their offices, this couldbe offset by increased viability and competi-tiveness, and enhanced opportunity to grow.Little is known as yet about small businessoffice automation. Congress may wish to con-sider requesting a study from the Small Busi-ness Administration or other Federal agenciesof the potential opportunities for and conse-quences of office automation in small busi-nesses, especially with regard to their overallviability and their role in innovation, local eco-nomic development, and job creation. If addi-

Ch. 1–The Ouflook for Office Automation Technology, 1985-2000 ● 2 9

tional evidence suggests that there is a public ●

interest in assisting small business office auto-mation, options to be considered include aninformation and education program for smallorganizations considering office automation, ●

or specific technical assistance or financial loanprograms for small businesses for the purposeof office automation.

●

Women and Minorities

If office automation reduces the number of ●

office jobs, women and members of minoritygroups who have historically been disadvan-taged in the job market, are likely to be mostnegatively affected. Congress may then wishto consider a series of steps to alleviate theirdisadvantage. It could:

take explicit notice of these concerns andfactors in discussion of bills concerningpay equity and comparable worth, whichare now before committees;provide incentives for maintaining or im-proving ratios of female to male employ-ment in labor force reductions associatedwith automation;provide incentives for maintaining theshare of employment held by minoritygroups in office work; andprovide subsidized child care facilities orincreased tax deductions for child care toincrease the employment options open toworking parents.