Chapter 1: VULNERABLE CITIES - Web view... and specifically urban planning systems and practices within the context of climate change. This recommends an approach to city planning

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Climate change and urban development in

Viet Nam

DRAFT -- 20 December 2010

Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010

Table of Contents

LIST OF ACRONYMS III

1. INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Objective of this paper 1

1.2 The scope and structure of this paper 2

2. CLIMATE CHANGE AND URBAN POLICY CHALLENGES 3

2.1 Climate change policy 3

2.2 Urban development policy 4

2.3 Migration policy 5

2.4 International climate change policy and cooperation 6

2.5 Policy recommendations 9

3. URBAN CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITIES AND ADAPTATION 9

3.1 Urban climate change risks in Viet Nam 9Climate change scenarios 9Climate change primary effects 10

3.2 Climate change, urban vulnerabilities, and migration 14Vulnerable people and living places 14Migration to towns and cities 15Governance, grass roots democracy and urban development 16

3.3 Urban economies at risk 17Climate change threats to economic development 17Climate change threats to urban infrastructure 18Costs of climate change effects and benefits from early investment in adaptation 21Urban planning 21

3.4 Conclusions and recommendations re urban adaptation 22Develop urban adaptation policy and coordination 23Strengthen urban governance for climate resilience 23Strengthen urban planning 24Enable migrants’ livelihoods and reduce their vulnerabilities 24Climate proofing of infrastructure 25Strengthen economic analysis and investment decisions 25

4. LOW CARBON URBAN DEVELOPMENT NEEDS AND OPPORTUNITIES 26

4.1 Urbanization and economic growth 26Cities are growth engines 26

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Sustaining urban growth 27

4.2 Urban greenhouse gas emissions 28Low carbon urban development potential 28Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions 29

4.3 Developing low carbon, clean cities 31Urban planning and GHG emissions mitigation 31Fiscal measures and international finance for low carbon urban development 32

4.4 Recommendations: mitigation of urban GHG emissions 33

5. URBAN DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES 36

5.1 The urban sprawl in Viet Nam 36

5.2 Urban planning in Viet Nam 37

5.3 Urban planning and climate change 39

6. SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 42

ANNEX EXAMPLES OF URBANIZATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION CHALLENGES 43

Case 1 Gaps in Drainage Infrastructure and Inconsistent Maintenance 43Case 2 Phu My Hung: Infill in Flood Prone areas Transfers Risk 43Case 3 Illegal Encroachment Reduces Lakes and Open Spaces 43Case 4 District 2, HCMC: Ad Hoc Approach to Climate Proofing 44Case 5 Ineffective Land Use In Peri-Urban Areas Affects Absorption Capacity 44Case 6 Poorly Coordinated Plans Undermine Development Controls 44Case 7 Unplanned Areas Lack Adaptive Design and Infrastructure 44Case 8 “Hard” Adaptation Can Lead to the Transfer of Risks 44Case 9 Poor Data Sharing and Spatial Analysis Deprives Planners of a Key Tool 45

REFERENCES 46

ENDNOTES 48

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List of Acronyms

AWG-LCA Ad hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action (under UNFCCC)BAU business as usualCDM Clean Development Mechanism (under the Kyoto Protocol of the UNFCCC)COP Conference of Parties (of the UNFCCC)EE energy efficiency FDI Foreign Direct InvestmentGHG greenhouse gas LCDS Low-Carbon Development StrategyLECZ Low Elevation Coastal Zone (less than 10m above mean sea level)MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural DevelopmentMICs Middle Income CountriesMOC Ministry of ConstructionMOF Ministry of Finance MOIT Ministry of Industry and Trade MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and EnvironmentMOST Ministry of Science and TechnologyMOT Ministry of TransportationMPI Ministry of Planning and Investment NAMAs Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions NAP National Adaptation PlanNTP-RCC National Target Program to Respond to Climate ChangeRE renewable energyREDD Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest DegradationSEDP Social Economic Development Plan (2011-2015)SEDS Social Economic Development Strategy (2011-2020) UNFCCC UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

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1. Introduction

“As a country that would be worst affected by climate change due to its long coastline that harbors a series of economic zones and large populations….we are fully aware of the grave challenges that climate change is and will pose to our people and country.” Speech by President Nguyen Minh Triet, UN Summit on Climate Change, September 2009.

“Viet Nam will only have one chance to get urbanization right. If we fail at urbanization, we will fail at industrialization and modernization.” Deputy PM Nguyen Sinh Hung National Urban Conference (November 6-7, 2009).

1.1 Objective of this paper

Viet Nam is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Many cities are located in coastal zones that are prone to sea level rise and tropical storms, and there are other climatic stresses. Climate change causes worse droughts, stresses on water supply, and heavier rainfall and flooding. Furthermore, urban development is reducing water storage capacities of cities: storm-flood problems are worsening for several reasons, and now includes climate change.

Ho Chi Minh City and the Mekong Delta, with many cities and towns, are particularly vulnerable to such climate change effects, as well as coastal towns and cities such as industrialising Danang and historic Hoi An. Within towns and cities, poor neighbourhoods and disadvantaged population groups are especially vulnerable. The main climatic hazards as well as lesser but repeated climatic stresses affect disadvantaged women, children, elderly, employees, and people making their living in the informal sector, including many migrants. Their numbers are increasing with enhanced rural to urban migration because of climatic stresses. City planners, utilities, and social and livelihood support services and programmes must therefore take climate change vulnerabilities into account.

Cities are engines of growth and innovation, as Viet Nam is urbanising and industrialising. But economic growth is increasingly under threat of calamities. The annual costs of natural disasters in Viet Nam have been estimated as more than 1 percent of annual GDP already1. Furthermore, the effects of climate change limit hydroelectricity generation as Viet Nam is under pressure from exceptionally dry rainy seasons that leave lakes below capacity2.

Growth goes with rapid increase in the use of energy including fossil fuels, and air and water pollution. The intense use of fossil fuels in electricity generation, transport and production is associated with increased respiratory diseases. In particular coal is a cheap and available fuel for expanded electricity generation (which is critical for cities) and industrial production, which is a cause of air pollution, especially in cities.

Viet Nam is not obliged by international law to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, but by global agreement it is expected to make all efforts possible3. Indeed, there are possibilities for expansion of renewable energy generation as well as for improving energy efficiency in manufacturing, transport and buildings, and that are economic whilst they may have co-benefits such as improved air quality.

Climate change is a call for accelerating good development policy and practice4. Without additional action the risks for economic losses, social disruption and environmental degradation are rapidly increasing. In addition, domestic investment and foreign direct investment (FDI) can enhance

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energy efficiency and drive renewable energy generation, and create export opportunities, as most (technological) innovation takes root in cities. With the right policies, services and investments, climate change actions can thus deliver multiple benefits.

It is important for Viet Nam “to get urbanization right” as stated by Deputy PM Nguyen Sinh Hung National Urban Conference (November 6-7, 2009). This study aims to draw out the main policy questions for Viet Nam in the short and long term future of urban development in the context of climate change, and recommend policy directions.

1.2 The scope and structure of this paper

This paper addresses climate change effects and the appropriate responses for moving towards climate change resilient cities, as well as low carbon development opportunities that can deliver economic, social and environmental benefits. It analysis the main challenges in Vietnamese towns and cities and draws on international experiences, in particular for suggesting ways forward.

Chapter 2 addresses policy challenges, including current climate change policy, urban development policy and migration policy, and what is needed for this to contribute to climate resilient cities and low carbon sustainable development. It also discusses the international context, in which certain policy instruments for international financial and technological support have been agreed. This addresses how technical cooperation and international partnerships outside the formal UN climate change process that can benefit cities and towns in Viet Nam.

In chapter 3 a range of urban development challenges are discussed in the context of climate change stresses on infrastructure, services and people, with specific attention to the most vulnerable people and urban economies. This includes climate change risks and vulnerabilities; a broad assessment of capacities and awareness of enterprises, local government, communities and households; possible social, economic and environmental climate change impacts; and priorities for adaptive action and investment (including monitoring, learning and adjustment).

Chapter 4 discusses the consequences for Viet Nam of the global need to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the opportunities for, as well as local benefits from promoting low carbon development in towns and cities. It addresses opportunities for strategic policy actions in the public sphere, and ways to enable and encourage the private sector to create and take opportunities for low carbon development, with domestic as well as international finance.

In chapter 5 the general approach to urban development is analysed, and specifically urban planning systems and practices within the context of climate change. This recommends an approach to city planning that is strategic, flexible, and action oriented. It also discusses priorities for policy action to enhance the opportunities that cities have for moving towards climate resilient and low carbon development paths.

Chapter 6 summarises the conclusions and recommendations.

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2. Climate change and urban policy challenges

“It is essential to enhance cooperation in response to global challenges like climate change, food and energy security, environmental degradation, natural disasters and diseases” – HE Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, ASEAN summit

"At present, choosing the place, shape and infrastructure for new urban areas depends on the inspiration of investors," Pham Sy Liem, Director of the Urban Research and Infrastructure Development Institute5

“Developed countries and those having a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions have a responsibility in supporting developing countries, especially those suffered the most from climate change and sea level rise (including Viet Nam), by new financial mechanisms, technological transfer, the adaptation fund and capacity-building in climate change adaptation.” HE Pham Khoi Nguyen, Minister of Natural Resources and Environment, press conference after COP15

2.1 Climate change policy

Viet Nam has reinforced its policy framework since the magnitude of the climate change challenge became clear to the world6. It issued the National Target Programme to Respond to Climate Change (NTP-RCC) in 20087. Currently many sector ministries, provinces and city authorities are formulating their Action Plans to respond to climate change, under the NTP-RCC. Climate change scenarios (scientific predictions of climate change and basic effects such as sea level rise) have been produced by MONRE, and local departments are using these data to formulate their Action Plans.

Guiding Principles of the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change [check]

1) Response to climate change should follow the principles of sustainable development, integration, sector/inter-sector, and region/interregional;

2) Activities responding to climate change must be carried out with clear focuses to effectively respond to immediate impacts as well as potential long-term impacts; the NTP is developed on the principle that proposed projects must be immediately implemented. Investment is considered economically effective in terms of mitigation of [????].

3) Response to climate change is the responsibility of the whole political system; society; sectors, organizations at all levels; communities and every individual. Response to climate change is a global, regional and national issue;

4) Climate change issues must be integrated into development strategies, plans, planning at all sectors and levels; into strategic environmental assessment, legal documents and policy institutions; into legal documents development and implementation;

5) Following the principle of “common but differentiated responsibility” as defined in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Viet Nam will successfully implement climate change response program if it receives sufficient finance and technology transfer from developed countries as well as other international funding sources.

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Viet Nam also has a National Target Programme on Economical and Efficient Use of Energy (NTP-EE, 20068). And Viet Nam has policies on urban development, sustainable development, water supply, electricity generation, and Disaster Risk Management (DRM), which all have a bearing on the climate change challenges.

Viet Nam has chosen to base planning to respond to climate change on a medium IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenario, which leads to predictions of 30 cm mean sea level rise by 2050 (compared to the period 1980-1990).9 129 out of total 752 country’s urban centres are located at the coast with total population 7 million in 2008.10 [these data are different from similar data in other parts of the text, based on different references: what to believe?] For example, the Ministry of Construction (MOC) is developing a proposal on coastal urban development in the context of sea level rise [ref?]. Several urban pilot projects, most notably ACCCRN, the World Bank’s Climate Resilient Cities, and the MegaCity Project, have begun assessment and planning in some of Viet Nam’s most vulnerable cites.11 The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) is studying issues of flooding in rural and also urban areas.

Although Viet Nam’s carbon dioxide emissions remain low and it internationally not obligated to reduce emissions, it is important to take effective measures to mitigate GHG emissions now as the world needs all countries to act and there may be several additional benefits to Viet Nam. The NTP-RCC also addresses mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including: “(i) Apply technologies which allow lower emission amount than currently used one in all socio-economic activities; and (ii) Develop policies and management methods available to implement the objectives to increase greenhouse gas sinks.”12 Although there are no detailed policy directives for reducing GHG emissions in urban areas, mitigation opportunities are closely linked with national energy policies.13 The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) has already finalised its Action Plan to respond to climate change, which will help the country limit its growth in GHG emissions from industry and electricity generation.

[in this section there should be minimally a reference to disaster risks reduction policies that have relevance to vulnerability reduction, resilience creation at the grassroots / community level]

2.2 Urban development policy

The Government has set out a strong and renewed emphasis on Viet Nam’s urban transition. The objective is to develop and strengthen a ‘national urban system’ comprised of urban centres of various scales and types, distributed across the country.

Over the last two decades, Viet Nam has been following a pro-growth urban development policy. From the urban development guideline policy in 1998 to the revised version in 2009, the urban growth target remains high (3% to 4% per year), up to 2025 and 2050. Together with a high growth rate, the quality of growth should be ensured as stated by the Prime Minister last year:

‘From 2010 to 2025, we should ‘establish and complete the Viet Nam urban system in the form of network cities; having appropriate, advanced, and adequate social and physical structure; sound environment and living quality; advanced architecture and rich cultural feature; competitive in the national and regional areas, contributed to development and protection of the nation’14.

The Prime Minister has issued a decision on the Adjusted Orientation of Master Plan for Development of Urban System of Viet Nam toward 2025 and Vision toward 205015. The objectives of this orientation are to gradually develop a network of urban centres throughout the country, with

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suitable, integrated, modern technical and social infrastructure, good environment and good quality of life, advanced architecture with national identity, and high competitiveness. The strategic vision for the urban system and technical infrastructure includes the following:

The national urban network in the period of 2025-2050 will be modern and industrialized with a focus on services and tourism development;

Viet Nam will have international level urban centres that play a role in global urban networks;

Viet Nam will become a strategic destination for regional and global tourism and services, as urban development is linked with the coastal, island, border economy;

There will be regional development axes, including border corridors, coastal zones and North-South, East-West corridor axes;

Regions and urban centres will increase their competitiveness by improving regional management, and developing industrial zones, ports, service areas in strategic regions.

Local culture and tourism development will be promoted; A national management system of environment and urban development developed; land

management will be strengthened; people will have a comfortable living environment ; water supply for urban centres of class V and rural areas will be ensured;

A national transport and communication network will be promoted, with regional transport networks and that will be connected later to the national network, increasing Viet Nam’s role as a hub for South-East Asia and Asia.

However, there is lack of vision and strategic direction in most Vietnamese cities. Most do not take climate change adaptation or mitigation of GHG emissions into consideration in their urban planning and construction. Urban development in Viet Nam has a high degree of informality resulting in ad hoc development [the meaning of this must be explained, and the evidence]. Improving informal developments is significantly more expensive [because ...?], and is socially and legally challenging. For example, new residential estates and industrial parks are still often planned in low lying and flood prone areas.

[there is a need to discuss governance and especially democracy policies here, laying the grounds for grass roots and civil society participation in chapter 3 in particular. Also important is to refer to gender policies, social security / protection policies and how those are especially relevant to reducing vulnerabilities. In addition, industrial and transport p[olicies impact on cities, especially as regards GHG emissions, and must also be mentioned]

2.3 Migration policy

Historically, national policy was to strictly controlled rural to urban migration using a system a household registration (ho khau). While this system has been relaxed and modified in recent years, migrants still struggle to attain permanent resident status and access urban services. Incentives are still in place to encourage rural residents to stay in their home districts. Migrants who take up temporary residence in urban areas experience restricted access to basic services – e.g. health, education,16 and their ability to by real estate is also restructed.

Of the 1.8 million migrants living in HCMC, 87% of these temporary residents have KT-4 status - registered as individuals without a family - which prohibits them from owning land.17 Many KT-4 residents live in private residential boarding houses. Other migrants are not registered at all and often live at the building site in self made (wooden) structures or in the unfinished building without any sanitary facilities. Applying for a more permanent resident status, such as KT-1 or KT-2, is challenging for many migrants who lack stable and permanent jobs in the formal sector and do not have documents to prove their legal housing status. 18 [the registration classification must be explained, eg in a box]

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Cities face needs for relocation within cities, as residents avoid flood prone areas, and inbound migration from rural areas.19 Seasonal migration, which currently accounts for a large percentage of migrants in the Mekong Delta,20 is also likely to increase as agriculture is negatively affected by climate change and sea level rise apart from economic transition processes that are already ibn motion. These migrants search for safe and affordable accommodation in cities but some are over-crowed, over-priced, and unwelcoming for unregistered migrants.

While policy changes could help migrants to increase their resilience especially when compared to their situation in sending areas, good planning is needed so that migrants can be fully included in the urban fabric. Urban planning – particularly around industrial zones - must take account of the spatial patterns of migrant communities and their vulnerabilities. Recognizing these communities and working with community groups will help identify local adaptation measures. [this is a recommendation – to chapter 3? To section 2.5?].

National policy aims to limit migration to Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, and develop secondary towns and cities. This can be achieved with social housing in those towns and cities, stimulating their economies, simplify migrant registration procedures, etc. [this is repeated in vulnerability chapter recs, chapter 3]

2.4 International climate change policy and cooperation

Viet Nam is a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and has ratified the Kyoto Protocol (KP). By these agreements Viet Nam would be defined as particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, making it eligible for support from developed nations. As a developing country it is not obliged to support “domestic actions” for mitigation of GHG emissions, but it is also eligible for support from developed countries to do so.

In the agreements in Cancun, Mexico (December 2010) the Conference of Parties (COP) of the UNFCC did agree on a range of mechanisms and instruments that will help enhance implementation of such internationally supported adaptation and mitigation actions. These agreements are not very specific on the role of local authorities, businesses and indeed cities in this regard, but it is clear that cities and towns must play a core role in implementation.

International financial support and technology transfer for climate change responses is likely to increase significantly in the coming years and decades, whilst Viet Nam’s regular ODA may reduce as it now has reached Middle Income Country (MIC) status. The result is expected to be that a significant share of total ODA to Viet Nam thus be climate change focused.

However, it is also expected that international climate finance will not cover all the financial needs and that significant domestic and private sector financing will be required for both climate change adaptation and GHG mitigation actions. This also means that international finance must be strategically used, especially for technical assistance and capacity building, and for pilot investments that test new and innovative approaches. Some developing countries have also stepped up their “partnership approaches” with Viet Nam, meaning that as they reduce ODA they increase scientific and technical exchanges between a range of specialised organisations, for example in water management.

Climate change response capacities of a city include technical and financial capabilities of the local government and key stakeholders. It is clear from recent assessments that this is lacking at municipal levels, especially for adaptation 21. Therefore, new mechanisms must be developed to

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coordinate stakeholders, increase technical capacity and channel international financial support to build capacities, build climate proof infrastructure and increase resilience. Internationally it is now agreed that developing countries will develop national adaptation plans (NAPs) as the basis for prioritised adaptation actions, including identification of what would be internationally supported with finance and technology transfer22.

Well coordinated efforts at energy efficiency improvement and GHG emissions mitigation in Viet Nam’s cities is critical, as many measures potentially economic, environmental and also social co-benefits for producers and residents. In this area there are many possibilities for involving the private sector through different measures including fiscal policy and public-private partnerships (PPPs), incentives for private sector action, elimination of market distortions, and significant flows of finance. [this is or should lead to a recommendation in this section or the final section of this chapter]

The international climate negotiations under the UNFCCC also reached basic agreement on the formulation and registration of NAMAs, Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions23. NAMAs are expected to be programmatic documents for, for example, industrial subsectors (nationwide) and for towns and cities as geographic units with large potential to reduce emissions. Once submitted to a (to be established) central register access to different new and existing financial sources and technological cooperation should be enabled. [one rec here or in the final section of this chapter is to urgently explore / develop NAMAs, for cities and towns and sub-sectors of industry]

The NTP-RCC and the Action Plans to respond to climate change that are currently being developed by sector ministries and municipal authorities, and the planned formulation of a national climate change strategy are important building blocks for developing detailed, fundable, practical and above all prioritised adaptation actions (under the NAP) and NAMAs for international assistance with potentially major benefits to Viet Nam’s towns and cities.

There are also processes ongoing with potentially important benefits from international cooperation. Specifically on climate change there are several international networks of towns and cities that are facilitating technical exchanges and learning and also financing of capacity building and investments on increasing climate resilience of towns and cities and moving whole cities towards carbon neutrality – this is mostly outside the formal international policy process of the UNFCCC.

[Here we need explanations of the role and climate change relevant actions coordinated/ stimulated by ICLEI, Mayors ....also ACCCRN etc and mention some of the towns and cities of Viet Nam that have strarted to take part. This will lead to a recommendation for the national association of towns and cities and individuals towns and cities to step up their international city-to city cooperation and become more active in taking part in networks. Recommendations here or in final section of this chapter?]

[the following is a recommendation, which before my editing appeared to be cut and paste from an international paper .... should it be here or in the final section of this chapter?

Climate change cuts across all parts of government, there is a need for involving not only MONRE and related offices, but also MPI, MOF. Addressing climate change requires leadership at the highest level of government, and indeed the Prime Minister is chairing the national steering committee that oversees the NTP-RCC and other climate change policy. Critical is strong coordination including central government–local authority coordination to encourage local (city, town) adaptation actions, and to strengthen local capacity in planning and implementing initiatives addressing climate change.]

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Table [...] Initiatives on Climate Change Responses in Cities in Viet Nam [If this table is maintained it should be made more meaningful in explaining different international networks and opportunities for int cooperation, and be referred to in the text. It is now about a small sample of internationally supported projects, which is not so meaningful and always outdated – we need an indication of what cities can link to and take part in for responding to climate change challenges.]

Initiative Participation Purpose Contents

Hanoi and Can Tho -Local Resilience Action Plans (2010)

LRAP Team: DONRE (head), DARD (vice head), DOC, Hanoi PC, DPI, DCST, DPA, DoST, DoT, World Bank

Build the capacity of the city to prepare for and proactively respond to multiple natural disasters including climate change via a comprehensive and holistically built LRAP.

- Vulnerability assessment based on spatial analysis and stakeholder consultation,- Inventory of national and local plans and programs that may affect vulnerabilities and resilience, - Identify applicable adaptation and disaster risk management measures- Define priorities among those actions and provide a city action plan on how to implement those priority actions. (1) (2)

Can Tho, Quy Nhon and Da Nang -ACCCRN – Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network

Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Department of Foreign Affairs and, in Can Tho, The Centre for Natural Resource and Environment Monitoring(CENREM)

International partners: the Rockefeller Foundation, ISET, Challenge to Change, ARUP

Assessment of impacts and vulnerabilities, development of strategies and pilot project implementation

Phases:1) City scoping and selection (identifying

partners and vulnerabilities)

2) City-level engagement (Shared Learning Dialogues with key stakeholders and capacity development)

3) Implementation of urban resilience projects

4) Replication (networking, monitoring and leveraging additional funds)

HCMC- cc impacts and adaptation analysis (2008)

ADB, Ho Chi Minh City

- Assessment of the “direct” impacts on economic assets, social variables, environmental assets and environmental quality

HCMC - Megacity Project (2008-2013)

… Strategies to promote sustainable urban development adapted to climate change

Strategies to increase the resilience and adaptive capacity of the urban system of HCMC

- Development of sustainable housing policies- Development of adaptation planning framework, incl. sustainability indicator framework, spatial urban and environmental planning information system, spatial vulnerability and impact assessment, identification and appraisal of options for adaptation, administrative integration and environmental governance, quality of the administrative and institutional communication practices between scientists, planners and urban authorities.

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2.5 Policy recommendations

[this should refer back to what is analysed / presented earlier in this chapter]

3. Urban climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation[This chapter should use more data from eg documents by Rockefeller/NISTPAS/ISET/CtC re their

three cities, and ADB re HCMC, as well as stuff on Hanoi and Haiphong from the WB. The text as it stands is also nearly gender blind, which cannot be acceptable just based on the UN-Oxfam VN paper on climate change and gender, and there must be urban development literature that shows what is critical in VN and beyond.]

3.1 Urban climate change risks in Viet Nam

[this section should present climate findings, risks, and explain that the climate change stresses and shocks are additional to a large body of existing urban challenges]

Climate change scenarios

The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) has published a summary of observed climatic and mean sea level data over the past decades as well as the official climate change projections for Viet Nam through the 21st century. The projections were calculated for different global IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios with several Global Circulation Models. The results are being used by planners and decision makers in different sectors. Some findings with relevance for the whole of the country are summarised in Figure [...].

From 1958-2007, Viet Nam experienced An average temperature increase of 0.5-0.7oC24

An annual rainfall decrease of about 2% A typhoon track which moved southward and typhoon seasons which ended later

By 2100, Viet Nam will experience Average temperature increases of 1.6-2.8oC Sea Level Rise of 75cm to 1m Annual rainfall increase of about 5% Typhoons increase in frequency and severity

Source: MONRE (2009: 16)25

Figure [...] Summary of climate change effects in Viet Nam[There are no reasons why we should follow only the “official” medium scenario, as was done

here. In fact there are only reasons to doubt the wisdom of that as the world is on a path well above the high emissions scenario that MONRE also used. The figure and the text must explain more and better the range of findings (between scenarios) from this report – see also UN factsheet mentioned in references, and propose what is the best for current urban development policy makers]

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Viet Nam has chosen to base planning decisions on a medium IPCC emissions scenario and in addition have accounted for some melting of land ice (unlike IPCC, 2007), until further data become available.26 However, the world is on a path well above the medium emissions scenario used, and without major global emissions cuts in the near future the most likely result is at the upper end of the estimates for climatic changes given in the figure above, and worse. These climate change effects must be understood as increased strength and frequency of climatic hazards or shocks and additional stresses, i.e. additional to the development challenges already faced by towns and cities and their populations.

Climate change primary effects

Many cities in the coastal zone of Viet Nam are already experiencing the effects of climate change, in particular sea level rise and associated enhanced saline water intrusion, extreme rainfall with local flooding, and repeated droughts. There are also increasingly severe tropical storms in the central region although this observation is primarily based on anecdotal experience and evidence from observed data and statistical analysis is not yet conclusive. But IPCC data suggest that it is likely that such storms are becoming more severe, globally, whilst further work on changes in climatic extremes is ongoing (as distinct from the above suggested changes in averages).

It is those extremes that cause havoc, in the present and near future as well as long term future, and climate change is likely to increase the intensity and the frequency of extreme events. Typhoons are increasing in frequency and severity, globally, and indeed tropical storms are likely to continue to get worse also in SE Asia. Several extreme weather events in Viet Nam over the past years have shed light on the vulnerability of cities to extreme weather. Typhoons historically hit the central cities of Hue and Danang but are now also affecting south-central cities, such as Quy Nhon and Nha Trang. According to a recent report Viet Nam ranks 5th in the world in terms of impacts of climate-related natural disasters over the period 1990-2009, with an index made up principally of the death toll and economic losses27.

Typhoons and the Cost of Damage

Over the last decade an average of six to eight typhoons (or tropical storms) have struck Viet Nam annually. For example, storm Xangsane made landfall near Danang in 2006, resulting in the evacuation of 300,000 residents from low lying areas. The storm eventually left 72 dead, injured more than 532, and cost USD 624 million in damages.28 [give another example, preferably of 2010; use CCFSC website data]

Typhoons have proved particularly damaging in urban areas where some buildings are below standard. While flooding in Viet Nam affects more people annually that storms (59% of residents affected by disasters compared with 32% for storms), approximately half of the economic damages (by total value) are caused by storms.29

The World Bank estimates the annual cost of damage for all natural disasters over the last 20 years at 900 million USD per year (approximately 1% of GDP [PPP or not?]). The worst years have seen damages over 3 billion USD.30

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The figure below summarises the enhanced risks of climate change stresses and shocks for urban areas, with a focus on effects of vulnerable people. These climatic risks are generic but all of them also apply to the urban population in Viet Nam. Differences in vulnerabilities of certain communities and disadvantaged groups depend on local circumstances and vary from city to city and town to town – some specifics in this regard are discussed in section 3.2.

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Climate change effects

Risks for urban areas Implications / risks for vulnerable people

Changes in extremesExtreme rainfall / tropical cyclones / storm surges

more intense flooding and higher risk of landslides

disruption to livelihoods and city economies

damage to homes, businesses and infrastructure

higher levels of mortality higher levels of morbidity

(especially among children) loss of income and assets

(impacting mostly low-income groups)

Drought water shortages higher food and water prices disruption of hydro-electricity distress migration from rural areas

higher prevalence of water borne / water washed diseases (particularly among children)

food shortages (high prices) and malnutrition

Heat or cold-waves short-term increase in energy demands for heating / cooling

Heat stress from heat waves (with impacts more serious in heat islands, i.e. big cities)

mortality from extreme heat or cold, especially elderly

reduced economic productivity

additional expenditureChanges in means

Temperature increased temperature bringing increased electricity demands for cooling, worsening of air quality; in many places also contributing to water shortages

increased vulnerability to respiratory diseases

young children and elderly most vulnerable

Precipitation increased risk of (repeated) flooding and associated pollution

increased risk of landslides distress migration from rural areas interruption of food supply

networks

higher prevalence of water borne / water washed diseases (particularly among children)

food shortages (high prices) and malnutrition

Sea level rise coastal flooding more frequent and worse

reduced income from agriculture and tourism

salinization of water sources

loss of land and property health problems from saline

water (children at highest risk)

Changes in exposurePopulation movement

movements from stressed rural habitats

increased population increased stress on

infrastructure and resourcesBiological changes extended vector habitats increased risk of diseases

such as malaria and dengue

Source: Adapted from Wilbanks et al. (2007)Figure [...] Climate change risks in urban areas

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Viet Nam faces particular difficulties in building resilience to mean sea level rise and storm surges and it ranks 6th in the world regarding the proportion of population living in Low Elevation Coastal Zones (LECZ)31. With more than 10 million urban dwellers within the LECZ Viet Nam has among the world’s largest urban populations in this zone [what is the source of this number? I suspect this number is too low!?]. More generally, 129 out of a total 752 of the country’s urban centres are located at the coast, including Ho Chi Minh City, 3 cities of class I, 6 cities of class II, 15 cities of class III, 13 of class IV and 90 of class V [these classes must be explained / defined in an endnote].

Many of Viet Nam’s cities and towns are developing onto unsuitable land, as the steadily increasing effects of climate change are becoming evident. In HCMC, 300,000 people are living in slums32, and it is expanding into flood prone areas (notably southwards). The average land elevation in Can Tho City is just 1 meter above mean sea level33. Parts of downtown, for example, are inundated every day at high tide, and measurements show particularly upward trends of high tide water levels over the past decades (more pronounced than the upward trend of mean sea levels).34 But non-coastal cities are also affected by climate change, as there are climate change effects other than sea level rise. An estimated 160,000 people are living outside the Red River dyke in Hanoi, which is considered to be unofficial occupation35. Hanoi is rapidly expanding westward and southwards into low lying areas that are vulnerable to floods.36

In most cities, water bodies have been encroached upon and open space is rapidly disappearing. 21 lakes in Hanoi (or 150 ha of water space) were lost to development during the past two decades.37 Recreation space per resident is only 0.9 m2 in nine inner-city districts of Hanoi, and just 0.05 m2 in densely urbanized Hanoi districts such as Dong Da or Gia Lam.[data must be checked: recreation space in inner city Hanoi is 18 times more per capita than in Gia Lam?]38 In 1980, ten spots in Ho Chi Minh City routinely flooded; today the number is nearly 200.39 To protect these and other cities from effects of climate change such as more intense rainfall and /or sea level rise will require many measures, such as very considerable investments in dykes and drainage infrastructure including water storage capacity.

The most severe climate change effects that Viet Nam’s cities face include rising temperature and heat waves. Cities are especially vulnerable to increased temperature, and can become “urban heat islands”, areas that could typically be 4oC warmer than surrounding vegetated areas. Central HCMC can be up to 10oC warmer than surrounding rural areas.40 This effect is compounded by air pollution, which reduces the release of heat at night. Green spaces and water bodies, which help cool cities, make up a relatively small percentage of urban space in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

As the environment becomes warmer and wetter there is increased risk of infectious disease vectors which can cause epidemics, and heat-wave related deaths. Climate change may magnify health hazards and other environmental burdens of a city, especially in tropical cities like Viet Nam’s wherein disease vectors are active and highly evolutionary41. Flooding in Viet Nam’s cities often leads to pollution and the release of wastewater and raw sewerage into residential urban areas. The urban poor, young children and elderly especially who do not have access to good health care and who live in informally developed urban areas are particularly at risk. Climate change health impacts “are accentuated in densely populated urban areas.”42

Drought is also an increasingly important climate change effect. Drought affects cities directly and indirectly. For example, as witnessed in 2010, hydro electricity is jeopardised by erratic rainfall, meaning that hydroelectric lakes are not filled to capacity whilst water must be used for other purposes too such as agriculture and river transport, meaning water releases that may not benefit

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electricity production optimally and therefore enhancing the blackouts in cities. Transport on rivers is negatively affected, and over time the stress will become particularly pronounced as groundwater reservoirs are depleted and clean water supply may become problematic.

Hanoi: Reduced Precipitation Results in a Changed Environment

Every year, even at the peak of Viet Nam's dry season, when the Red River is at its lowest, Hanoi's skilled captains manage to negotiate their flat-bottomed boats through its shallow waters. But this year [early 2010?], with a drought gripping the entire country and water levels at record lows, the river is eerily quiet. What is normally a bustling waterway is becoming a winding river of sand, and farmers who depend upon the river for irrigation are watching the expanding sandbars as nervously as the boat captains. "If there is no water in the coming days," says 59-year-old farmer Vu Thi La, who just put in her spring rice seedlings, "it will all die."

Across Viet Nam, high temperatures and parched rivers are setting off alarm bells as the nation grapples with what's shaping up to be its worst drought in more than 100 years. At 0.68 metres high, the Red River is [when?] at its lowest level since records started being kept in 1902. With virtually no rainfall since September, timber fires are burning in the north and tinder-dry conditions threaten forests in the south.

Source: [???]

The direct effects and large scale potential risks are difficult to predict with accuracy, but at a global level much has been agreed. Secondary impacts, from social dislocation to environmental transformation, depend more strongly on local social economic conditions and are even more difficult to predict. Nevertheless, the expected magnitude is huge and therefore action is needed.

3.2 Climate change, urban vulnerabilities, and migration

[this section should work out which are the most vulnerable groups and what their needs are, eg with examples from eg CtC work and international literature. It should use the UN & Oxfam gender cc paper which givers eg resilience indicators. In other words, migrants and migration should be just one aspect of this section.

It also needs to be improved in conceptual terms: vulnerability is not the same as poverty, for example, and different groups of deprived or disadvantaged people need different support to increase their resilience, from social protection to livelihood support services, education and health services (which also need differentiation), and so on. Generally, social differentiation needs to be central in the different parts of the text, including by age and gender.

And it needs conclusions and recommendations for increasing resilience of different groups – in this section or in the final section of this chapter]

Vulnerable people and living places

Poorer urban dwellers in Viet Nam often live in areas with low quality drainage and flood protection infrastructure, whilst during floods critical services such as clean water supplies are severely disrupted. The urban neighbourhoods that are most vulnerable to heavy rainfall include informal residential areas along rivers and converted wetland areas. These settlements are often unplanned, have low quality built environment (public and private), lack sufficient drainage infrastructure whilst due their proximity to rivers and lakes they may be the first to experience

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floods, often of polluted water. However, these neighbourhoods supply cheap labour and services and are critically important for urban development and economic growth.

[Here we need more on different vulnerable groups in urban VN, urban vulnerabilities / risks for climatic shocks and stresses. It is not enough to only talk of migration as the rest of this section does. Important to explain with some examples the vulnerabilities in certain cities of VN with reference also to the table in section 3.1 (third column). This should be specific on gender and age related vulnerabilities, in particular; migrants are discussed in next subsection]

Migration to towns and cities

The Ministry of Construction (MOC) forecasts annual increases in the urban population of 1 to 1.3 million people, due largely to rural to urban migration. It is generally believed that the urban population is 10-15% higher than current estimates due to the number of unregistered migrants.43 In Ho Chi Minh City, 1.8 million people living within the city boundaries are recent migrants with temporary resident status.44 [need for brief explanation of different residential status, classes of (temporary) registration; we also need to get a clear sense regarding the meaning of “unregistered as in Coulthart: is that including those with temporary registration?]

While statistics suggest that urban poverty has significantly declined in the last two decades – from approximately 25% in 1993 to around 4% in 200645 - the statistics do not fully account for temporary residents. Urban poverty data for the major cities need to be qualified against indications of considerable under-reporting of poverty amongst recent or transitory migrants from rural areas. There are even suggestions that urban poverty is showing a slight increase in recent years [reference?]. Income poverty, coupled with poor access to urban services means that many migrants are more vulnerable than other urban citizens. Migrants congregate in some of the most vulnerable urban areas, in order to find affordable accommodation. Although migrants may suffer poverty or deprivation in urban areas their situation is not necessarily worse than in the sending areas, including the quality of services that they manage to access – but costs in urban areas are high.

[we need something on special vulnerabilities of migrants, and “migrants” has to be differentiated as not all migrants are poor and especially vulnerable. This subsection has to demonstrate a gendered analysis.]

There are many push factors for rural to urban migration, and environmental pressures that are enhanced by climate change appear to play an increasingly important role. Flooding, drought and saline water intrusion may push vulnerable people to search a safer and stable life46. Especially the risks of mean sea level rise associated with enhanced saline water intrusion are seen to be important, affecting millions of people in Viet Nam if no appropriate measures are taken47. The climate change-enhanced displacement pressures are especially acute in the Mekong Delta and the coastal provinces.

Views in Viet Nam have long focused on the negative aspects of migration. The belief that planning cannot deal with the influx of poor migrants is common and therefore that barriers to migration are needed. There are several rules in Viet Nam which deter migrants from investing in permanent housing [needs specifics re these “rules”, such as:] Unregistered migrants are less likely to invest to increase their resilience due to the tentative nature of their residential status and prohibitions on land ownership and access to urban services. Globally, there are not many examples of cities successfully keeping migrants out of cities. Ignoring migration and forcing migrants out of the city may be counter effective and result in social unrest.

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Rural-urban migrants are an important workforce and play a key role in for example the construction sector and in low skill manufacturing industry. They are also important for regional and rural economic development. Migrants to urban areas send remittances back, and they may return (temporarily or permanently) to rural areas with new skills, networks and investment capital. Remittances are a growing proportion of rural households’ incomes in different parts of Asia. Remittances overtook earnings from farming in rural households’ budgets in China in 2004.48 In Viet Nam, circular (or transitory) migrants – migrants who stay a short time in urban areas before returning to rural areas – often accumulate investment capital as urban workers. According to Professor Dang Anh, it is increasingly common for young women from rural areas to spend 1-2 years in industrial zones in order “earn their marriage money”49. If rural to urban migration would be discouraged there may thus be a negative consequences for rural households and a widening rural-urban disparity, whilst there could also be a negative effect on urban growth.

But rapid and accelerating migration is a challenge for cities. Migrants enhance the demand for housing, transportation, environmental services, education and healthcare services, which are in short supply. More than 50 percent of migrants in Ho Chi Minh City report that their housing conditions are worse after migration compared to the situation before migration.50 Many migrants are not registered or have obtained only temporary (K4) status. Authorities in Ha Long estimated for example that 20-25% of the city’s population are migrants who are not registered.51

Governance, grass roots democracy and urban development

[Here a few paras on “participation” or grass roots democracy, citizens groups and the role of mass organisations, and urban governance that would be inclusive of vulnerable groups (not just migrants). This concerns the legal challenges / access to land and services questions that migrants face, but also a large number of urban dwellers who are not (first generation) migrants are occupants of land that is not officially theirs, or half-officially – what about the communities outside the dyke in Hanoi for example? This subsection also has to demonstrate a gendered analysis]

[We need (in this section or in section 3.4 of this chapter) conclusions and recommendations for increasing resilience of different social groups – especially regarding the soft side of increasing resilience as in community based disaster risk reduction, CBDRM, which is also being practised in urban communities]

Lack of cooperation between sector ministries has been mentioned by many experts, academics and politicians but remains one of the big bottlenecks for more efficient urban planning and management. The effects of climate change will only increase the pressure for better cooperation since the growth of the country’s economy is at stake.

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3.3 Urban economies at risk

[this section should be distinctly different from 3.2. It should focus on overall economic contribution to hinterland / region as well as country, and address especially the business / private sector and infrastructure (which is also critical for accessing social and other a services despite climatic stresses); and therefore urban development policies including urban planning. So in 3.3 there is no need to talk of migration other than re infra and employment needs, with possibly a reference back to the needs for land rights / legalisation of land occupation as in 3.2. Critical is also that this section provides ideas over costs of adaptation (-infra) and (short and long term) benefits from short and medium term investments that avoid future costs.]

Climate change threats to economic development

Increase in intensity and frequency of climatic hazards has already been observed in cities. However, the threats or stresses from climate change are additional to the existing challenges of urban development and present threats to health, business, infrastructure and the environment, with a negative impact on urban development and therefore the country’s economic development. For example, in Hanoi the increase in flood hazards is attributed to the degraded capacity of the storm drainage system. In Ho Chi Minh City flood hazards are amplified by land subsidence from overuse of groundwater and the spill-over effects of construction and development on water-surface land areas in the south eastern part of the city and encroachment over the flood storage wetland area.52 Rapid reduction of vacant land and increases in population density are exacerbated by poor urban planning and implementation [if we call this “poor” we need a reference that backs it up]. Particularly problematic is the combination of climate change stresses with inadequate urban environmental infrastructure and management such as inadequate waste and wastewater disposal. Apart from the many vulnerabilities discussed in the previous section, there are particular threats to businesses and therefore employment, whilst cities are the country’s engines of growth.

The urbanization process in Viet Nam is a transition from a rural-based agrarian society to one based on industrial production, trade and services that are mostly urban. But Viet Nam’s cities have master plans that often lack a thorough long term vision and do not adequately reflect the reality of rapid urbanization and the opportunities offered for economic growth. And the challenge has increased as the realisation of climate change effects takes root.

Viet Nam is integrating further into the world economy especially following WTO accession and international trade continues to increase. In this context port cities develop rapidly, and have to balance their rapid growth while ensuring the safety of their facilities and residents. Cities along the coast such as Ho Chi Minh City, Can Tho, Da Nang, Hai Phong, Ha Long, and Nha Trang are most vulnerable to sea level rise. These cities will face a loss of land and inundation of coastal neighbourhoods, industrial areas and businesses, unless protective infrastructure is scaled up, or city expansion plans are changed drastically towards higher land. But the latter is only possible for some cities and not an option in most of the Mekong Delta.

[here we need more on the economic role of towns and cities, and in-depth discussion is needed of the effects on businesses and business, on employment. The threats to business and employment include business continuity, transport needs, direct damage; also health and safety of workers, as improvements often correlate with cleaner environmental behaviour and reduced environmental risks from businesses and to businesses. Also relevant is the need to access social services such as hospitals and schools, also during and immediately after critical events, as extreme climatic shocks affect certain groups.]

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Climate change threats to urban infrastructure

The backlog in urban infrastructure development in Viet Nam has been identified as an alarm signal: “Building the infrastructure needed to support rapid economic growth and urbanization requires efficient use of public resources. Infrastructure is the second most important constraint to Viet Nam’s development. Here too, the current situation is extremely worrisome.”53 This conclusion was reached without fully considering climate change and indeed most infrastructure upgrading projects have not considered climate change effects, including the recently designed flood levels for the protection dyke system of Ho Chi Minh City [such strong statements require referencing, otherwise edit or delete]. In addition, outdated building codes and standards are still in use and at the same time inconsistently enforced. Drainage systems, pumping stations, roads, and dykes in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are being upgraded, but may fail to fully address pollution and flood threats as climate change risks are increasing.

Current urban development, i.e. more built up areas and less green and water space increases the challenge of adapting to climate change effects. This became very clear in Hanoi in October 2008 where big parts of the city flooded after two days of heavy rainfall, which caused heavy pollution in the worst affected areas. It also affected the energy supply which is especially vulnerable to climatic hazards and broken electricity supply lines are a major hazard during floods. In October 2008 several electric transformers were turned off during the heavy rain, and afterwards had to be moved to a higher location. A similar situation occurred in other cities including Istanbul, Turkey, where extreme rainfall and inadequate urban planning caused major damage during periods of heavy rainfall in 2009. These weather extremes will in all likelihood be repeated, and possibly become more extreme as a result of climate change.

Istanbul, Turkey: Blaming Flooding on Climate Change Instead of Poor Urban Planning

The devastating, tragic floods in Istanbul which killed at least 41 people and caused $70 million to $80million in damage--offered yet another reminder of the danger such incidents pose to the country. In early September, flash floods triggered by heavy rainfall partially submerged some suburban districts of the large metropolis, damaging houses and infrastructure, stranding people in their vehicles as the city's highways turned into rivers, and cutting off access to the airport.

"In an hour, Istanbul received 205 kilograms of rainwater per square metre. This is the strongest rain Istanbul has experienced in 80 years," Mayor Kadir Topbaş noted in the early days of the disaster, saying global warming was to blame. Critics, however, accused Topbaş of trying to divert attention away from the role played by his administration and those of his predecessors, including now Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

According to the Istanbul branch of the Environmental Engineers Chamber, the issuing of permits for buildings close to riverbanks without creating sufficient infrastructure was a major factor in the flood damage. The environmental engineers also blamed the city's poor system for dealing with sewage and rainwater, which are collected together, not separately, as needs to be done to keep pipes from overflowing.

The environmental group WWF-Turkey took something of a middle ground on the issue, blaming both global warming and poorly planned and unregulated urbanization, saying in a statement that: "Due to irregular and unplanned building and insufficient infrastructural investment, rain is unable to reach the sea through its natural flowing canals and turns into flooding. Because of insufficient greenery in cities, the rain isn't absorbed by dirt."

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One of the most contentious areas has been the dense and hard-hit settlements around the Ayamama River, which the local Chamber of Architects lobbied back in 1997--when Erdoğan was mayor of Istanbul--to protect as an ecological corridor and recreation area. "We prepared reports then, but they did not listen. [We said] urbanization in the region would both destroy the environment and put an extra burden on the already insufficient infrastructure," said Büyükkent branch chairman Eyüp Muhçu. "We filed a lawsuit against the decision, and we won, but the municipality allowed settlement in the region despite the court ruling." 54

Vulnerability Hanoi HCMC Can ThoPopulation density ?? 7.2 million in 2009 55

30,000 pp/km2 in city centre to 600pp/km2 in outer district 56

846 pp/km2

Percent poor or slum dwellers

?? 80,000 poor household57

50% population migrated to HCMC in less than 25 years

???

Percent of urban area or population susceptible to flooding

??? 70% land is prone to natural flood

50% of areas planned for development lies at less than MSL

Average land elevation 0.8-1m above MSL.

City % of national GDP

??

More vulnerable to temperature and precipitation changes than to sea level rise (1)Health care facilities, water, transportation, tourism, recreation (1)

Figure [...] Climate change vulnerabilities58 [this table should focus on the title of the subsection: economics, including infra and business activities of the main cities of Viet Nam. This table is meaningless with so many empty boxes – so either fill up with additional info sources or delete. If it stays the contents needs to be used / referred to in the text]

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As a result of saline water intrusion some cities’ water supply intakes and water treatment facilities must be re-located further upstream (especially in the Mekong Delta).59 The depletion of groundwater in and near cities is also significantly increasing their vulnerability to climate change effects. In Ho Chi Minh City, ground water exploitation exceeds 600,000 m3/day compared with only 200,000m3/day of water replenished. This imbalance has resulted in lowering of groundwater levels, which, together with rapid construction development can also lead to the geological deformation. Ho Chi Minh City is subsiding at a speed of 6 mm per year60. Furthermore, groundwater in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh is heavily polluted. Pollutants include nitrogen compounds, biological and organic matter, and also toxic elements, including naturally occurring arsenic (mostly in the red River delta).61 Guaranteeing water supply will thus require major infrastructure investments, in the near and longer term future.

Cities with degraded or overwhelmed drainage and water storage system such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, will be severely affected by increasingly heavy rainfall and risks of flooding. The disappearance of open spaces and the filling in of lakes in urban areas has increased the likelihood of heavy rainfall causing longer periods of flooding. This also relates to pollution, as untreated wastewater will be all over a flooded city. In Hanoi, less than ten percent of wastewater is treated and 500,000 m3 of wastewater is discharged daily.62 Nationally, less than one third of the country’s 110 industrial zones have wastewater treatment facilities. Untreated sewerage is dumped into waterways. In urban areas nationwide the length of sewers per capita is between 1.2 and 1.4 m, as compared to 6 to 8 m per capita for cities in other countries of the region.63 Floods and inundation thus cause pollution and threaten human health, and climate change increases these risks. Again, the demands on good planning, additional investment of climate proofing of infrastructure investments is evident.

Flooding and wastewater pollution in Hanoi: an overburdened drainage [sewerage?] system threatens the environment and human health

Hanoi’s sewerage system has not been strategically built, but rather has been based mainly on the natural rivers, lakes, ponds, and channels and sewage treatment is minimal. The increase in household sewage, together with the development of industries has surpassed the city’s capacity for sewage treatment, and exacerbated the city’s water pollution. [this is about domestic wastewater and general city wastewater, not from industrial zones: how much of that is treated, if any, and is that basic wastewater treatment or modern? I have never seen a domestic wastewater treatment facility in / near Hanoi: where are they? Also critical is that according to what I know there is virtually no separation in Hanoi or elsewhere in Viet Nam of rainstorm drainage systems and sewerage systems, meaning that to treat sewage means that the treatment plants would also have to receive rainfall from the streets and roofs. The backlog in systems investment is thus enormous, whilst as far as I know still now the newly built areas still have no separate rainstorm drainage and sewerage systems. If I am ruight this is a key point re infrastructure investment needs as rainstorm drainage systems must cope with heavier floods and pollution during floods with wastewater must be prevented]

Most rivers, lakes, and ponds in Hanoi are severely contaminated. It is estimated that the level of water pollution will double by 2020 if no effective solutions are found. To Lich River – the main sewer for old Hanoi – receives 150,000m3 of sewage/day. Kim Nguu River receives 120,000 m3 of sewage/day. Besides providing drainage, the rivers and channels in Hanoi have also receive part of the waste [solid waste? Wastewater? Other drainage?] generated by the people, industries and handicraft villages.

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[Here there needs to be a further explanation re effects of climate change such as floods and also droughts on transport and electricity supply]

Northern Viet Nam: Hydropower Dams and Drought Threaten Agriculture

Viet Nam is still building hydropower dams. The government recently [mid 2010? when?] released water existing dams to help farmers in the Red River Delta with spring planting. Now [when?] with reservoir levels in the north at critical lows, the state-owned electricity company says it can't let go of much more; power demand is expected to break records as temperatures soar. High temperatures and evaporation are the enemy.

The crisis has been a "wakeup call" for Viet Nam, says Ian Wilderspin, senior technical adviser for disaster risk management at the U.N. Development Program in Hanoi. The drought was predicted, he says, referring to last year's projections that El Niño would bring an unusually warm and dry winter. Yet Viet Nam traditionally prepares for floods and typhoons, which are more dramatic and devastating when they hit. "Drought is a slow, silent disaster, which in the long run will have a more profound impact on peoples' livelihoods," he says. 64

Urban traffic is already a serious concern and will be further affected by the direct and indirect pressures effects of climate change.[more ...]

Costs of climate change effects and benefits from early investment in adaptation

[This needs to be followed by an economic argument over avoiding costs (damages, reduced business / livelihood activities) that must be a core factor in agreeing investment decisions that mitigate those costs, i.e. investment in adaptation. References at the international level include the Stern report, and the “mini stern” by ADB for SE Asia as well as the WB costs of adaptation report (case study VN). At the national / city level the critical point is that somehow authorities need to decide which “climate proofing” additional costs is most justified in the short term, and which investments can wait. In addition many costs can be avoided by simple changes in urban planning, meaning “expand here instead of there” decisions]

Urban planning

The Urban Planning Law (enacted January 2010) is not specific on climate change challenges. The present overall policy framework seems to guide cities in Viet Nam in the opposite direction. There is a need to reform and strengthen Viet Nam’s Urban Policy and the planning system and practices of Viet Nam. Cities in Viet Nam are developing in an informal manner and not always guided strategically in order to achieve optimal patterns.

The Government of Viet Nam has been involved in a number of pilot projects for the preparation of urban development strategies in selected cities utilizing the ‘City Development Strategy’ (CDS) methodology, a tried and tested comprehensive planning approach that could take into consideration climate change adaptation and prepare for greener low carbon cities. However a clear link need to be made with the existing legal systems of national and sectoral.

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The National Target Programme to Respond to Climate Change asks all sectors and provinces including cities to formulate action plans to respond to climate change. However, without the integration of these actions into strategic construction and land use plans means their impact is likely to be limited.

Planned adaptation implies policy decisions and measures at the urban-scale that facilitates the reduction of the adverse impacts of climate change. Each city faces its own particular range of risks and vulnerabilities and so needs to develop a city-specific understanding of this. These are needed now for all urban centres so that growing cities and urban centres progressively build into their infrastructure and wider development resilience to climate change impacts.

However, the present attitude among government and donors is one of fire fighting or crisis management where sector ministries and donors are supporting some individual cities, for example with vulnerability assessments and recommendations for infrastructural or geographical improvements. Although this is contributing to more climate resilient cities it does not tackle the root of the problem, which is ineffective, and inefficient city planning and management [but the text does not provide arguments or references that explain what is wrong, why is it inefficient – some is in chapter 5, but a forward reference is not enough].

3.4 Conclusions and recommendations re urban adaptation

[this section should refer back to / build on the analysis provided in 3.1-3.3, and provide the recommendations on those subjects (especially the subjects of 3.2 and 3.3), which is not currently the case as several recommendations seem to fall from the sky. Problem analysis on planning for example should not be here but in 2.3 and recommendations could go here (I did some cut and paste and edited parts, but very little of substance is there so far]

Climate change effects will continue to become more pronounced, also if greenhouse gas mitigation is successful at the global level. The climatic extremes expected from climate change as well as the more gradual pressures of climate change will affect cities throughout Viet Nam, with the most severe impacts in coastal cities and the cities of the Mekong Delta. But timely and well prioritised action can have multiple benefits, as summarised in the following table.

Table [...] Potential benefits and co-benefits of adaptation

Adaptation Investments Objective Benefits and co-benefits

Improve drainage infrastructure To reduce losses from flooding

Reduced the risk on water borne diseases

Conserve open spaces and water bodies

Keep absorption capacity Recreational areas; improved air flow;

Halt unplanned urban development

To improve design and drainage infrastructure

More liveable urban areas

Maintenance of local infrastructure

To reduce degradation and clogging

Cost savings

Dikes and mean sea level rise resilience enhancement

To reduce flooding caused by sea; reduce salinization

Rise in property prices

Rainwater and sewerage infrastructure

To reduce health risks caused by flooding

Improved water quality and health

Adaptation Measure Objective Benefits and co-benefitsImproved planning for To reduce overlap and gaps A step towards planning

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comprehensive climate proofing in planning reformImproved coordination among stakeholders

To improve analysis and maximize funds

Potential mobilization of funds

Harmonization of plans with the land use plan

Ensure strategic land planning is the basis for urban planning

Improved natural resource management in urban areas

Improve data sharing and spatial analysis (GIS)

To increase data-driven decision making; to give planners an important tool

Step towards digitization and data standardization

The following adaptation priority areas have been identified for urban areas in Viet Nam.[the above table and text below should match – now several things in the table are not

discussed in the text]

Develop urban adaptation policy and coordination

Climate change adaptation must take place at all levels: from strategic national investments in infrastructure, to provincial level land use planning, town and city level enforcement of laws, district and ward risk and vulnerability assessments, and support to neighbourhoods and households to protect and enhance assets that are resilient to climate change.

Viet Nam’s main policy challenge in the near future in terms of urban development is how to create efficient and sustainable, climate change resilient and economically viable cities. While cities have to make their individual choices, the central Government should provide an overall policy framework that facilitates climate change resilience and guides urban development through the century. Urban development policy should set clear and realistic goals and take into account the current informal character of urbanization and reflect that climate change will require more innovative solutions. This general policy framework should be linked to or be part of a national climate change strategy that would also encompass a national adaptation plan (NAP) as per agreement under the UNFCCC65.

MONRE’s facilitating role on climate change related issues is important as it leads on the National Target Programme to respond to Climate Change.66 MOC, MPI and MONRE should closely work together combating climate change adaptation at city level. MOC has a core role in urban development and are in charge of master planning (construction), MPI are leading on the formulation of the national SEDP and MONRE also has responsibilities in land use planning, which is inefficient in many towns and cities. To address the combined pressures of climate change and wider urbanization challenges in cities, cooperation in urban planning and management should be strongly improved.

Strengthen urban governance for climate resilience

Urban governance should be strengthened for cities and their citizens to become more climate resilient. The following is recommended:

Adopt a decentralized approach that empowers towns and cities is recommended because each city is affected by climate change in a different manner. Solutions for those cities will also differ and therefore it is necessary to adapt plans and solutions to the local circumstances.

A strategic and flexible urban development plan should be prepared for each city and town, that indicates future long and midterm development directions, clear actions and responsibilities for all actors at Provincial, District and Ward level.

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While many actions can be taken to minimize the effects and damage on a city wide scale, neighbourhoods have to be prepared to combat these effects. It is therefore suggested to develop local assessment plans and local action plans to identify vulnerable areas in a city and make neighborhoods more resilient.

Decentralize urban governance including citizen consultations to lower levels of government (additional powers and resources) [this has to be based arguments in section 3.3. Is this recommendation really the best for responding to climate change effects / stresses? A stronger and enforceable city-wide policy may be better, as several climate change threats and solutions are not only for neighbourhoods and districts but must be addressed city wide].

Make use of local resource and initiatives [this is a truism] Be more flexible, participatory, integrated and divert from the traditional master planning

with a construction focus [divert to where, to do what?] Improve coordination [of what, who and why? There is no relevant problem analysis in 3.2

or 3.3]

[With reference back to e.g. section 3.2 on governance there need to be recommendations on citizen’s participation, consultation; the need for transparency in governance especially urban planning and investment, land registration etc.]

Strengthen urban planning

Over the next decades a significant number of urban development projects will be required in Viet Nam. These new projects will shape the spatial patterns of urban agglomerations for many decades. The rapid process of urbanization is accompanied by dramatic land use changes in the surrounding areas in most cities in Viet Nam, which poses many demands even without climate changes shocks and stresses. The combination demands an integrated planning framework, climate change adaptation should be integrated with development planning, and there is a need to integrate spatial, social, and economic planning.

The authorities, citizens and the private sector must jointly consider how the spatial development direction in general and buildings and infrastructure in highly vulnerable regions can be adapted to cope with the climate change effects. Planners and developers must consider different spatial levels of the urban development process, and ensure that the new urban development and communities are constructed sustainably and remain safe into the long term future.

Urban planners need tools – and experience using those tools in the rapidly growing, market driven urban economies. Tools such as management information systems, geographic information systems (GIS), and enforceable environmental impact assessments, could significantly improve a city’s capability to respond to climate change.

There are many examples of industrial parks, residential areas or new city centres that are planned and/ or constructed in the lowest part of the city making cities extremely vulnerable. This is unnecessary, and without significant extra cost but with efficient urban (land use) planning many potential economic losses can be avoided, for example by altering the spatial development directions of cities and towns away from the low/wet lands.

Enable migrants’ livelihoods and reduce their vulnerabilities

Migration must be taken into consideration in adaptation planning. While policies to deter migration might not change immediately, it is also unlikely to be very effective and the fact of migration needs to be recognized, especially as the environmental pressures in certain rural areas

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are increasing the “push factors”. Cities must be capable of receiving migrants and enabling them to live productive and healthy lives, invest and access all services, which will be of benefit to them as well as the community and economy. Planners need to assist migrant communities to increase their resilience, for example by assessing the spatial distribution of vulnerable migrant groups, and devising appropriate support measures and investments.

Part of the current migration policy is driven by the desire to manage the size of Ho Chi Minh and Hanoi and maintain a equally balanced growth policy.67 This relies on the development of secondary cities in a “system of cities.” The promotion of secondary cities as strong economic centres presents an opportunity to encourage migration. Incentives for migrants to move to these cities should be provided – e.g. simplified registration, affordable housing, vocational training, etc. – which would create a workforce to fuel their growth.

Climate proofing of infrastructure

According to the MPI, in order to become an “industrialized-modernized country” by 2020, the country’s infrastructure requires a massive capital investment from all sources including government budget and bonds, ODA and the private sector. Current annual infrastructure investment makes up 9-10% of the GDP. It is estimated that infrastructure investment over the next 10 years will cost 11% of GDP each year. Only about half could be met from the government’s budget.68 The transport infrastructure alone, according to the BIDV, needs nearly USD 7.5 bln annually, while all sources of capital (government, budget/ bonds and ODA) can provide only USD 2-3 bln69. If the budget allocation for urban water supply and sanitation remains at the level of the last 10 years, this source will be able to finance only about 4% of urban needs70.

Viet Nam has an opportunity for climate proofing this infrastructure and and also housing, which would increase resilience to climate change effects and help move towards efficient, resilient and healthier cities. Climate proofing will mean changes in designs and additional costs, but the additional costs may be considerably smaller that reconstruction costs or damages incurred as a result of failure in climate proofing.

[There is a need for more specific recommendations on infrastructure for climate change adapation, which also includes special infrastructure. Not just proofing of what would be there anyway. Use e.g. ADB analysis for HCMC in 3.3 and lead to recommendations here]

Strengthen economic analysis and investment decisions

Based on the best available information, the benefit from a range of adaptation investments is projected to outweigh the costs of implementing adaptation measures in the long term.71

At the moment, nearly 40% of capital for infrastructure investment comes from ODA, while only 15% comes from the private sector72. One reason [for what exactly?] is low capacity of the localities to borrow for development.

[Referring back to the analysis in 3.3 there should be number of recommendations here regarding optimal timing, phasing of certain (massive) infrastructure investments and proofing of “regular” infrastructure]

[parked (delete?): The priority is to enhance climate change resilience by building adaptive capacity and taking technical and non-technical adaptation measures in climate-sensitive sectors. A country’s adaptive capacity depends on its level of development, but more effort in raising public awareness, more research to fill knowledge gaps, better coordination across sectors and levels of government, and more financial resources will enhance adaptive capacity. ]

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4. Low carbon urban development needs and opportunities

[This chapter needs considerable work. Examples are needed, domestic and especially international [there is an annex with cases on adaptation, not on GHG emissions mitigation). The relevance of mitigation for citizens groups, and for poor people should be addressed; activism by say students on awareness raising is critical (in VN); and potential benefits for middle classes from certain policies on eg energy efficiency and feed-in tariffs, meaning for example that household or office scale solar might pay itself back as high electricity use is already expensive in VN (progressive fees)]

4.1 Urbanization and economic growth

Cities are growth engines

Cities are centres of investment and innovation, and for any successful economy they are engines of growth. As Figure [...] illustrates, urbanization and GDP growth are strongly correlated across Asia.

Figure [2] Log real GDP per capita and urbanization in 1960, 1980, and 2000 [source and explanation of “log” and “real GDP”, “y” and “R2”]

Viet Nam is one of the fastest urbanizing countries in the region. According to the preliminary result of the 2009 Population and Housing Census, the current population is approximately 86

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4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 20 40 60 80 100

South Korea

Philippines

Malaysia

y = 0.0563x + 4.7391R2 = 0.7685

Indonesia

Thailand

China

log

real

GD

P p

er c

apita

urbanization (%)


million (2010), with an urban population of 25.4 million (nearly 30% of the total population). The urban population could reach over 50 million by 2025.73

Viet Nam’s cities are centres of investment and innovation and they are important engines of growth. Most investments are in industries and services in urban locations. Cities contribute over 70% of total GDP of Viet Nam. The annual GDP growth rate in urban centres is 12.6%, significantly outpacing the national growth rate. Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City could be the top two cities with the world’s highest average real GDP growth between 2008-2025.74

In particular international harbours are hubs for economic, social and cultural development, knowledge, education, innovation and change. Viet Nam has 114 harbours, but most are local and small. This total includes three international seaports –Ho Chi Minh City, Hai Phong, and Danang, which are central to population concentrations and economic growth corridors. These corridors have reasonable to good connections to wider areas (hinterland), and they are linked to each other by various transport routes. The three corridors currently account for nearly 38% of the population and 60% of national GDP.75

Viet Nam’s urban centres support the rural economy. Cities and towns provide economic opportunities for the rural population in the form of trade, employment and services. However, Viet Nam’s poorest provinces generally lack an accessible, large and dynamic urban area to provide economic and social opportunities and services. Nevertheless, all cities and (provincial and district) towns have been growing at high rates during the last 20 years, also as a result of infrastructure investments, meaning that opportunities are increasing as transport and services are improving.

Sustaining urban growth

But there are major challenges. The Harvard Kennedy School’s “Choosing Success” (2008) summarizes the differences between East Asian and South East Asian cities: “While East Asian cities are engines of economic growth and innovation, Southeast Asian cities are congested, polluted, over-priced, and often underwater.”76 The effects of climate change can only further destabilize these cities. The question is whether Viet Nam will choose the East Asian or the South East Asian path of urban development, especially now that the country has reached middle income status. 77

How well cities are managed and governed has major implications for economic success and social development, including poverty reduction. This also has implications for the environment in and around cities. Well governed cities can combine prosperity with high quality living environments whereas poorly governed cities have large environmental health burdens that affect large sections of their population, are ill equipped to handle environmental changes and often export serious environmental problems to their surrounding areas. Choosing Success highlighted the importance of stable and liveable cities:

“Poorly planned urbanization is a potential source of social and political instability as the recent experiences of Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia make clear. People need decent housing, reasonably clean and liveable surroundings, and quality health and education services for their families. Proactive policies and efficient and timely public investments are necessary to avoid overcrowding and unhealthy urbanization, which can become a constraint on the growth process.”78

[Add something from the Harvard report or elsewhere on sustaining economic growth from innovation, R&D, high value added, especially as is becoming a MIC]

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4.2 Urban greenhouse gas emissions

Low carbon urban development potential

The international community has made significant progress in late 2010 regarding further implementation of the UNFCCC, meaning for example that developing countries that develop low emissions development strategies (LEDSs) and nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) can expect significant technological and financial assistance, NAMAs are expected to be programmes that are possibly sectoral (e.g. the steel industry) and geographic (e.g. a city), or both (e.g. a city’s transport system). Critical is that a country, subsector or city demonstrates that with certain improvements in capacities, policy reform and also investments emissions will reduce against a baseline or business as usual. This presents very important potential for low carbon development in Viet Nam’s towns and cities.

Fuel Cell Buses in China’s Cities: Stimulating an Industry with Growth Potential79

The demand for buses in China is expected to grow at an average rate of 5 percent per year between 2000 and 2030, which would result in a Chinese bus population of about 72 million in 2030. The demand for new buses (counting replacement and new markets) in 2030 under this scenario would be some 108,000 buses per year. This creates a sizeable potential market for Fuel Cell Buses (FCBs).

Recognizing the potential of this market, the Global Environment Facility and UNDP initiate a $11.6 million project to match $23 million in co-financing. While the first stage of this project focused on technology transfer and adaptation, the second stage of the project is intended to support FCB commercial viability and replicability, and will focus on FCB hybrid technology.

Hybrid FCBs will introduce lower costs, as engine power requirements for bus operation will be lower, and improved performance through reduced fuel consumption. The results of the pilot will be used to promote and replicate FCBs as a commercially viable transportation alternative for cities sharing similar environmental characteristics and conditions.

In complement to the GEF project, Beijing had at least 15 FCBs in demonstration for the 2008 Olympic Games. By 2010, the planned production volume of FCBs is 30 per year.

[put source here]

Low carbon urban development will also require significant domestic financial and human resources, especially from the business sector as well as households. This cannot be achieved with the global environment as primary argument, as Viet Nam is not responsible for the high levels of GHGs already accumulated in the global atmosphere, and it still is a low per capita emitter80. But even where GHG emissions reduction is not supported internationally there are many potential co-benefits from mitigation measures that could well be enough reason for businesses, local authorities and households to take measures, if the policy environment is optimal. Co-benefits can be economic / financial, environmental and social. Some of the potential is summarised in the table below.

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[critical is that the abatement curve and accompanying text in the Second Communication is checked and some is presented in the table (also so that it becomes more VN specific), and it should be discussed in the text: see http://unfccc.int/essential_background/library/items/3599.php?such=j&symbol=VNM/COM/2%20E#beg ]

Table [...]: Co-benefits of GHG emissions mitigation

Mitigation Investments Objective Co-benefitsUrban energy efficiency (e.g. efficient lighting)

To conserve energy to reduce emissions

Reduce costs; reduce national energy demands; national energy security

Clean public transport To reduce transport emissions

Reduced traffic; improve access for the elderly and poor; cleaner air

Improve landfills To reduce methane emissions

Improved sanitary conditions around the landfills

Increase greenery To cool the city and reduce energy demands

Recreational and Green Spaces

Reduce water leakage To conserve energy Cost savings; water conservation

Mitigation Measure Objective Co-benefitsImprove traffic flow (e.g. coordinate lights, better planning of intersections)

Reduce traffic to reduce transport emissions

Reduced traffic; cleaner air

Stimulate green building development

To conserve energy in urban buildings

Reduce costs; reduce national energy demands; create market for clean tech

Anti-congestion policies (e.g. tax/tolls)

To Reduce transport emissions

Reduced traffic; cleaner air

Waste management systemTo Reduce organic waste and thereby waste emissions

Less waste; recycling and organic fertilizers

[The text in the following sections of this chapter should elaborate on the key issues in the table, and demonstrate throughout the co-benefits to alternatives of BAU]

Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions

[Must explain that fossil fuels and therefore GHG emissions are at the core of electricity production and energy use, but not the only part of the energy mix (hydroelectricity critical for many cities, and other). Therefore energy is critical for consideration of GHG emissions mitigation in urban areas in particular (in rural areas emissions are especially from deforestation, wetland rice cultivation, and livestock).

Important is that at the national level the MDG7 indicator GHG in CO2Equivalent emissions / unit GDP in PPP is discussed here, and the trend therein, showing that Viet Nam is actually becoming less efficient, not more per unit GDP. Data are probably from the Second Communication in combination with Viet Nam HDR or other re GDP (in PPP, purchasing power parity)

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http://unfccc.int/essential_background/library/items/3599.php?such=j&symbol=VNM/COM/2%20E#beg

http://unfccc.int/essential_background/library/items/3599.php?such=j&symbol=VNM/COM/2%20E#beg


This section as regards energy should systematically treat electricity use in buildings, manufacturing industry and by households, fossil fuel use in industry, fuel use in transport, and possibly other – including cooking fuel that in poor sections of VNse society includes beehive coal that is polluting indoor and in the streets but cheap against the alternative of cooking gas. He current treatment is somewhat muddled and incomplete]

While Viet Nam’s current carbon dioxide emissions per capita amount to 1.2 tonnes per year, far less than the global average of 4.5 tonnes per year81 [these VN data are incorrect or at least outdated and no reference is supplied. Must use Second Communication, and possibly UNDP’s HDR of 2007 for comparisons with other countries; the global average is I believe also higher than quoted here].

Energy consumption accounts for a large percentage of GHG emissions in Viet Nam [take a figure from the Second Communication]. It is rising quickly as industries increase and incomes rise (see table [...]). Viet Nam’s cities, businesses and residents consume a large part of national electricity and other energy. For example, 50% of commercial electricity is consumed by households, of which 85%82 by urban citizens (World Bank Energy Data [need proper reference, in ref list and endnote]).

National energy consumption [in another part of the text the same sentence said “household energy consumption” – what is it?] tripled between 1990 and 200083 [these are old data; for the purpose of national numbers see the GHG factsheet of UN-VN and the Second Communication – which is about energy and more] and is currently increasing at a rate of 10%-14% per annum. In the next forty years Viet Nam plans to add 74 power plants, including 48 hydroelectric, 17 coal-fired, 5 gas-fired, 2 nuclear, and 2 renewable power plants [what is this?]. Coal-fired power plants are expected to eventually account for 25% total electricity production [From where are these numbers?].

Widespread energy inefficiency occurs in industries84 [that is quite an outdated reference, from 2003] and households, largely due to the use of aging equipment. A promotion of energy efficient building design and pilot examples, such as the work of the Energy Conservation Centre in Ho Chi Minh City (see box), could prepare the groundwork for energy efficient municipal policy. Effective urban planning must also contribute to energy efficiency and GHG mitigation.

ECC: Promoting Energy Conservation in Ho Chi Minh

CityThe Energy Conservation Centre (ECC) of Ho Chi Minh City, under the Department of Sciences and Technologies, provides services on energy efficiency (auditing) and new energy development. Additionally the EEC runs programmers on household energy conservation.

Every year, Ho Chi Minh City households spend VND5.2 trillion (= USD 275m) on electricity. Energy growth in Ho Chi Minh City averages 10-12% per year. Using audits and capacity building, ECC strives to raise awareness about energy conservation in the city.85 ECC has also produced a handbook on household energy conservation with tips for reducing energy consumption.

Another method to save energy in Ho Chi Minh City is using solar energy instead of electricity [this is not saving energy, but switching to a different energy source: it is critical that energy efficiency and conservation are not confused with renewable energy]. Ho Chi Minh City authorities are providing every household with VND1 million to adopt solar energy [really? Is this happening? Where is the official policy document? Is this solar water heaters? PV? If the latter this is crazy without having agreed feed-in tariff and mechanisms at the national level – a huge waste of public

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funds. Also, VND1m is not enough for really getting many people to adopt PV even if feed in tariff would already be agreed and be appropriately high ....].86

Central Ho Chi Minh City is as high as 10 degrees [?!verify?! min/max/average/day/nigh/ reference points??] warmer than the surrounding area due to the “heat island effect” of major built up areas / cities. This increases the demand for energy for airconditioning.87

Transport accounts for a large and growing share of GHG emissions, and most of that happens in the urban corridors. In 2009, 91.9% of CO2 emissions in the Transport Sector came from vehicles on the road [? Any emissions from vehicles not on the road, like in open mines or tractors on fields/ do they separate agricultural vehicles? Non-vehicles, but transport ie diesel trains?].88 Of the total CO2 release in the transport sector, 57% is from diesel fuels and 38% is from gasoline [which other fossil fuel is used in Transport? Kerosine for planes?].89 Car ownership is increasing rapidly: there are now one car/truck in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh for every urban 20 residents. In addition, residential patterns are changing and commute times are increasing.

Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have very low road density, for example with Hanoi 1.9% of total land area for transport, compared with 18.8% in Tokyo90. Hanoi’s roads have already reached a saturation point.91 Two decades ago public transport in Viet Nam served a small fraction of urban residents. New investments have seen bus use in for example Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City rise dramatically. Metro lines are also being planned in these two cities. As traffic increases, efficient public transport will be essential to reduce traffic congestion and become attractive to urban residents. There is a clear opportunities for public transport to also be clean, “low carbon” compared to the alternative of diesel buses, taxis or private transport.

4.3 Developing low carbon, clean cities

Urban planning and GHG emissions mitigation

[There is need for explaining with examples what planners could and should do, plan for making a VNse city low carbon at least costs and maximum co-benefits as summarised in the table at the beginning of the chapter. What approach to transport design is needed, to links between neighbourhoods and employment centres; what needs to happen to city expansion with living areas and industrial zones as well as environmental services such as wastewater collection and treatment; what must happen in construction / building codes for energy efficiency; etc. This also needs to consider participation in planning processes, consultation of businesses and citizens / civil society

Critical in this section is to discuss NAMAs, as introduced in the policy chapter 2, but here in more detail. NAMAs need to explain to the national and international community which concrete measures will have GHG emissions benefits and how much, and are in most cases expected to have several other benefits, especially but not only medium term economic benefits]

Climate change responses should encourage planners to create “urban solutions” that are supportive of greater resilience to climate change and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, whilst also achieving economic development success, improved social environments and access to social services, and clean, low carbon production and consumption trends. These many objectives are difficult to achieve as climate change adaptation and GHG emissions mean extra costs and efforts. Some changes can be made now with additional costs in the short term but with significantly reduced future costs and possibly various gains in the medium and long term. Stepped-up international cooperation (finance, technology) can help achieve multiple benefits, and sometimes

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all those objectives can be met simply by doing things differently with only domestic resources and local involvement.

Effective urban planning is key to achieving energy efficient cities, low transport emissions and reduced GHG emissions per unit GDP (or: decarbonising the economy) in Viet Nam’s cities. This will have immediate effects on air pollution, which exceeds acceptable levels in the largest Vietnamese cities. The main pollutant is caused by traffic is particle matter (PM10), which is usually 1-5 times higher than national standards in urban areas.92 Exhaust fumes in Ho Chi Minh City are up to 5 times the maximum national level. There are between 16,000 and 20,000 people suffering from diseases related to outdoor air pollution each year in Viet Nam.93 This pollution is not the primary cause of global warming (in fact some of it causes cooling), but is primarily the result of fossil fuel use, which also produces the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO2). In other words, low carbon transport and renewable energy use will serve to protect local health and limit global warming.

Energy Efficient Lighting Reduces GHG Emissions

Creative planning can reduce both costs and energy consumption. The Viet Nam Energy Efficient Public Lighting Project (VEEPL), funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) through UNDP and co-funded by the Vietnamese government for $15 million USD, aims to introduce energy efficient public lighting on streets, parks, and schools.

Before the project began in 2000, “85% of street lighting in Viet Nam is provided by obsolete technology – either mercury or incandescent lamps) and installed without benefit of proper planning or engineering analysis.” Between 2010-2013, the project estimates that annual C02 emissions reductions will be 99,000 tons.94 [it would be appropriate to consult UNDP or VAST documentation on this project, instead of referring to such external literature only, if only to cross check such data] The project also aims to stimulate a local industry in energy efficient lighting products.

[source(s) here]

Fiscal measures and international finance for low carbon urban development

[Discus here fiscal measures to encourage innovation (R&D) and investment, meaning local fee / tax structure, subsidies, incentives such as access to certain industrial areas, especially to stimulate private sector investment in green and clean tec. Also discuss regulation, not only the market based instruments.

Also important is that electricity providers have to agree a reasonable or even attractive feed-in tariff – this is national policy – but one enacted municipalities have many opportunities to encourage solar energy in cities at small and medium scales]

The use of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is growing in Viet Nam, which is currently the 8th developing country in terms of number of CDM projects hosted. Many CDM projects are in the pipeline and so growth is expected to continue. However, there is still no agreement on the “second commitment period” of parties of the Kyoto Protocol – which would provide a basis for further growth in opportunities for offsets of GHG emissions reduction commitments by developed countries through CDM projects in developing countries95.

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CDM projects primarily aim to make technological investments for reduced GHG emissions financially attractive that would not be economically feasible in a business as usual scenario without carbon credits and the related extra income stream. CDM projects thus have technology-transfer benefits for Vietnamese entrepreneurs, and provide a financial bonus. Most CDM projects are in the energy sector and with businesses (private as well as state owned, including utilities). Cities can benefit from any industry within their bounds increasing their energy efficiency, switching to cleaner energy. Most CDM projects do not only reduce GHG emissions (against BAU) but also have co-benefits, including reduced local pollution and improved working conditions. For example in tapioca processing plants in the Central Highlands of Viet Nam smell reduces from waste water tanks as they are capped and coal as fuel in dryers is replaced by the methane gas captured from wastewater tanks, which eliminates coal dust and reduces the heavy work burden of shovelling coal into burners. Particularly attractive CDM applications for cities include reducing methane emissions from solid waste landfills, and possibly capturing it to produce electricity.

[Add here some text / analysis other international climate finance, public and also private investors / developers – and what has so far inhibited the latter to upscale for example “green FDI”?]

4.4 Recommendations: mitigation of urban GHG emissions

[in this section summarise recommendations from three previous sections; all conclusions and recommendations must be based on information and arguments provided there so whatever is newly presented here must be discussed there first, in an analytical manner; and recommendations must become more concrete than what has been done so far (even though I have started to edit the original text]

A well-planned mitigation framework will not constrain economic development. International financial support for mitigation will likely increase significantly in the coming decades. There are opportunities to slow the rise of GHG emissions from the transport and energy sectors, and also in energy efficiency of buildings and waste management. Mitigation actions can especially be opportunities for wider development by making strategic use of international mitigation finance and mechanisms such as the CDM, and through policy measures to stimulate private sector investment.

Urban planners must work side by side with energy and emissions experts to identify opportunities for GHG reductions. It is necessary to change the approach of urban planners to include the concept that mitigation of GHG emissions can provide opportunities for making cities clean and efficient, and not that climate change action is merely a burden.

The following would help achieve co-benefits from mitigation action.

[Here recommend the need for a national cc strategy of which a (national) low carbon development strategy (LCDS) is a core part – the argument for its need / opportunity from Cancun is / must be explained earlier]

[Recommend a city wide strategic /development plans that encompass overall priorities for low carbon development, in addition to the (draft) action plans to respond to climate change under the NTP-RCC, based on additional research / assessment of potential and needs. This could be identical to a city NAMA, or encompass different NAMAs] NAMAs should identify opportunities for energy efficiency and conservation, renewable energy generation, and other urban forms of GHG emissions mitigation.

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[Recommend ways to access different international funding opportunities for mitigation, mostly based on NAMAs that will be submitted to an international register for accessing technology and finance – what does it take to develop fundable NAMAs, that leverage finance from the private sector?]

[present from here, systematically, the recommendations for GHG emissions mitigation in subsectors of cities – household energy use and potential generation of renewable energy (solar); energy use and efficiency from (office) building; energy use in and emissions from manufacturing industry; energy use and emissions from transport; and emissions from waste and potential generation of bio-energy from waste. ]

[There are different means to achieve improvements and move towards a low carbon city. We should make recommendations on fiscal policies including various city wide

regulations, fees, subsidies. There are also some policy implication of all this at the national level.

The implications of all this for what city planners and architects need to do is also critical and so far very “thin” below.

Furthermore, we need recommendations that suggests that there are co-benefits possible for the poorer groups and not just the middle classes; and gender analysis is important too, as new technology that is introduced in gender blind or gender neutral manners tends to work against the objective of increasing gender equality – but what does it take to achieve that? What sort opf participation, what kind of research is needed?

Another means is awareness raising: how and what do we recommend that cities go about that?

In addition, as also the Amsterdam example suggest, it is critical that partnerships with all stakeholders are created, that there is a good degree of participation and consultation].]

Amsterdam’s Climate Office and CO2 Reduction Plan96

The municipality of Amsterdam has set an ambitious target of reducing CO2 emissions by 40% by 2025 (compared to 1990). The city’s action plan states “we want to accomplish more than is required by law and want to take advantage of opportunities.”

To manage the process, the municipality has established the Amsterdam Climate Office and launched a framework of cooperation (called “New Amsterdam Climate”) with businesses, institutions, and citizen groups. The New Amsterdam Climate is a platform to:

-Find partners for cooperation;-Inspire and motivate each other;-Share knowledge;-Detect and remove obstacles;-Map out resolutions, actions and results;-and present annual CO2 reports.

The municipality itself will lead the way with a commitment to be carbon neutral by the year 2015. In addition, the Amsterdam Climate Office will establish an Amsterdam Climate Fund to finance mitigation projects. The city predicts that at least 18% of its CO2 reduction will be achieved

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in the Transportation Sector and at least 24% in the energy sector (by encouraging the switch to sustainable energy sources)

New initiatives are needed in both energy conservation and transport planning.

[To raise awareness amongst householders and businesses re energy efficiency – campaigns with eg students?]

[Initiatives such as the Energy Conservation Centre’s programmes or the Viet Nam Green Buildings’ Council97 lay the foundation for future large scale energy efficiency and conservation.]

An efficient traffic system would significantly reduce CO2 emissions from vehicles.98 However, due to limited road spaces in big cities and rapidly growing populations, increasing public transportation is necessary to create an efficient traffic system. This presents an opportunity to reduce the number of vehicles on the road, which will thereby improve traffic flows and fuel consumption.

The Urban Heat Island effect will increase the amount of energy consumed in Viet Nam’s cities. Methods for cooling cities should therefore also become a central consideration of planners and architects –it can be achieved with for example increased green space; by absorbing radiation in e.g. solar water heaters and solar panels; and by reflecting sunlight through (white) roofs and water bodies.

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5. Urban development challenges

"When anything goes wrong, everyone blames each other. Urbanization is a synchronized process. We can’t just treat one element without considering all the others, like we do now," Pham Sy Liem, Director of the Urban Research and Infrastructure Development Institute99

5.1 The urban sprawl in Viet Nam

Despite existing policies and plans, urban growth is not always environmentally sustainable and a high quality of life is not achieved. Even the often commended new development Phu My Hung in District 7 of Ho Chi Minh City has been criticised for its inappropriate location. New developments rarely preserve water space and water storage successfully, making flood risks bigger. In Ho Chi Minh City about 77 percent of the remaining open-space areas could be affected by flooding by 2050100.Although some new infrastructure is climate proofed (and therefore more expensive than business-as-usual) this is still isolated practice.

Loss of Water Space Reduces Natural Adaptive Capacity

Loss of water space (lakes, rivers, and wetlands) is a common issue in most of Viet Nam’s cities. Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh, due to highly competitive land markets, have witnessed the largest reduction of water spaces. Lakes and streams are vanishing with or without permission. The accepted rule in Ho Chi Minh City was to fill-up un-named ponds and streams; only ones with official names and which appeared on official maps were to be preserved. In Hanoi, in spite of numerous efforts to preserve water space, 21 lakes inside the city boundary (150ha of water space) were lost during the past two decades101.

The infrastructure backlog is big and very heavy investment is needed. Cities are rewarded for the growth by increased transfer of central government infrastructure investment funds. Revenue generation at the municipal level is weak and few cities have experience with for example diversified infrastructure finance such as PPPs, infrastructure investment funds, or issuing municipal bonds.102 Most investment in infrastructure is transferred from the central government based upon the classification of the city, which encourages cities to competition [how do they compete – e.g. informally with envelopes, formally through project proposals and transparent evaluation of needs?].

Squatting and encroachment problems persist although since 2002 efforts have been stepped up. The strengthening of Construction Investigation Forces103 in both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City has brought about positive results [what does this mean, specifically?]. However, encroaching still happens, especially in the urban fringe districts104. Increased migration due to for example increased flood risks from sea level rise will likely enhance informal settlements.

Land prices are extremely high pushing the poor into marginal (flood prone) areas. Land has become a way to invest and speculate more than a physical input for housing or industry. Because of speculation a significant share of VN’s economic resources is being shifted away from more productive activities. And land speculation is particularly pronounced in peri-urban areas. Cities

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expand rapidly, sprawling into rural areas. By annexing rural communes they also benefit by the sale of agricultural land for urban development.

There is little involvement of the private sector although it is the driving force of urban growth and therefore cities fail on opportunities to increase their competitiveness and employment generation opportunities.

Urban Development Trend: Into the Low-Lying Areas:

A scan of Viet Nam’s largest cities makes clear that they are expanding into high risk areas. Hanoi is expanding faster towards low lying terrain than to the safer areas north of the Red River.

Hanoi spatial urbanization over 80 years105

Similar situations can been seen in for example Quy Nhon, Ca Mau, and Can Tho106, where new urban development projects are towards the sea and low lands.

The main driver of this trend is the land market. It often costs much less to acquire water space such as lakes, small streams, and swamps than other land within the city and the peri-urban areas. This trend is spurred by private investors, but it is also supported by government infrastructure [this must be explained, here or in the text, preferably with sound references: is the Gov a land speculator? Are municipalities using the land market to raise infrastructure investment funds?]. The costs of climate change adaptation in these areas will likely be high as over time increasing high demands are placed on infrastructure.

5.2 Urban planning in Viet Nam

The Vietnamese urban planning system relies on three types of development plans (see figure below). (a) The Socio-Economic Development Plan (SEDP), prepared by the Department of Planning and Investment, which is a five year plan identifying targets and socio-economic investment strategies and is generally consistent with the national SEDP for the same five year period. (b) The Construction Plan, prepared by the Department of Construction (or the Department of Architecture and Planning, in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh), which is the legal basis for guiding urban infrastructure development. (c) The third plan is the Land Use Plan, prepared by the Department of Natural Resources and Environment, which often has some overlapping goals with the Construction Plan. In addition there are several sectoral plans prepared by the different municipal departments.

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Figure [...] Urban Planning System in Viet Nam: Report on the 2008 National Spatial Policy Seminar, 2009107 [this does not describe the three plans in the above text, it does not mention “urban” or cities, and it uses acronyms that are uncommon in Viet Nam, so it should be replaced by a better figure, or deleted as it confuses. If the presentation of this figure is meant to represent a proposal for change of the VNse planning system, in the context of climate action, that should be clearly explained / argued in the text]

Sectoral infrastructure plans are not always integrated within the construction plan. Transport plans, for example, are often prepared separately and managed by both the Department of Construction (DOC) and the Department of Transport (DOT). Other sectoral plans include tourism plans, industrial plans, electricity plans, etc., which are all prepared by other entities. Although all these plans should be developed upon the basis of construction plan and the land use plan, their integration is often poor.

All of the above plans tend to be prescriptive. The Construction Plans are design oriented, which can be effective for planning new urban areas and giving guidance to private development in undeveloped areas. However, such a design approach is poorly suited for urban renovation, and increasing resilience within densely populated urban areas.

Compounding the lack of integration among plans is a lack of coordination among departments. Mechanisms for coordination and integration of planning tasks are necessary to reduce planning gaps and increase resilience of cities, neighbourhoods and social groups. In 2010 the NTP-RCC requested cities to prepare their Action Plans to respond to climate change and at the same time the Government requested major cities to prepare or revise Master plans in 2010 [is a “Master Plan” the Construction Plan? The SEDP? Another planning tool? Explain without confusing the reader]. It appears that in most cases these two plans are being done separately, by different groups of planners and following different visions and objectives. A more strategic approach to planning, possibly by introduction of a strategic management plan, could bridge sectoral divides and reduce gaps and overlap. [this is a recommendation and should be here or in the final section of this chapter, or repeated there – a choice must be made in this regard]

Lawrie Wilson (2009) criticized the Master Planning system as:

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‘It is a process that places a strong focus on the spatial arrangement of buildings in a very prescriptive way but which does not provide the mechanisms for management of investment at the local level to ensure that the resulting development is in the public interest’. This planning tradition is ‘limited to the preparation of master plans for urban areas but only in a physical or spatial sense, not comprehensively as part of an integrated process. Various vested interests in urban development that inhibits or more correctly impedes the establishment and operation of an efficient, effective and sustainable urban planning system in Viet Nam’(Wilson, 2009).

The appropriate system, according to Wilson (2009), should be dynamic, strategic, and integrated product that link strongly with urban management process. Master plans should be transformed into an evidence–based master framework with strategic planning notion and front-end108 design mechanism.

5.3 Urban planning and climate change

The uncertainties of climate change effects and needs increases the demands on urban planning. The emerging additional climatic stresses (extreme situations and gradually increasing stresses), are in addition to the already difficult circumstances such as rapid urbanization and lack of basic infrastructure. Furthermore, the need for mitigation of GHG emissions, with economic, environmental and social co-benefits also increases demands on planning and capability of making adjustments in response to new circumstances. Planning in uncertainty is asking for a flexible and strategic planning approach but that is not a characteristic of current planning approach in Viet Nam.

Viet Nam has a well established process for the preparation of prescriptive construction master plans [what is the difference between “construction master plans” and “Master Planning”? Master Plan or Master Planning, what is this about? In endnote all these terms should be given in Vietnamese too, because there generally is confusion in English whilst in Vietnamese categories of planning are defined legally] but it does not practice responsive urban planning in a manner as is now common in countries with developed market economies. Under the current Master Plan based system it is difficult to enhance climate change adaptation, increase climate resilience, and implement strategies towards low carbon or even carbon neutral cities. However, the Master Plan is the only tool available at the moment.

In some cities specific institutional bodies to respond to climate change have been set up. In Ho Chi Minh City, the Flood and Storm Protection Agency (focal point is DARD) [is this agency or committee? What is the VNse name – put in endnote?] has been proposed [has this now happened?] to transform into a Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Agency. In Hanoi a multiagency team in addition to the Flood and Storm Protection Agency [CFSCs in provinces and municipalities are normal – committee for flood and storm control, so not “Agency” – is that meant here? CFSCs exist for decades CFSCs are led by DARDs, so why is this separate? Is this symptomatic of the institutional problems in VN??] has been formed to assess climate change risks, with DONRE as the focal point [this seems inconsistent with what is in the box below, where a SC is also presented.]. This reflects a lack of national framework, and ministerial leadership, to facilitate the municipal level institutional set-ups necessary for climate change planning [I am not sure whether that would be the exact solution, and to which problem? check the NTP-RCC whether there is any advise on provincial / municipal set up – some have formed a special office for cc, as MARD has done].

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Institutional arrangement for climate change management in Hanoi

- Establishment of a team responsible for climate change related activities of the city by Decision 752/QD-UBND dated July 23, 2009. The team consists of members from different constituent departments, with the focal point is DONRE. The team is responsible to build the action plan to respond to climate change.

- Establish a Steering Committee for Climate Change (SCCC) to review and endorse the action plan

- Integrate the results of the LRAP into investment planning, urban planning and natural disaster mitigation platforms and processes at the city and local levels; and

- Coordinate the programs of other entities active in Hanoi dealing with climate change impacts.

- Partnerships with local expertise, especially universities and technical institutes will be essential for creating and integrating projections of future impacts of climate change and natural disasters into the planning process. These partnerships will also provide long-term stability to the LRAP process and can help to determine the city’s long-term climate resilience priorities that span across the terms of office of officials and governments.

Source: LRAP, 2009 [not in ref list?]

[one key problem with the NTP-RCC is that it is weak on GHG emissions mitigation, and at the local level such as in the box above the focus has often become completely adaptation focused. This should be observed and analysed in this text, and for cities the main implication is that the response to climate change is not at all comprehensive or capable of finding opportunities in economic development with for example reduced pollution as a co-benefit – but rather that it is firefighting based on victimhood, that all there is is extra cost and needs]

To strengthen climate change adaptation planning and putting cities on a low carbon development paths several changes are critical [the following are reworded as recommendations (they were “issues” and questions and I have added one or two, but several of the following recommendations lack the analysis in earlier text that is required to make them; this is especially so regarding participation of civil society and the business / private sector in urban planning], with regards to city planning.

The overall (city) planning system in Viet Nam must become more integrated and strategic, based on international experience and models. This planning must be comprehensive.

Planning lags behind the rate of urbanization and unsuitable land is being developed. This lack of planning and pockets of informal development have consequences for low income households which seek affordable housing in low lying areas. High migration rates, which may increase even further in some coastal cities, increases the need for advanced planning with a special focus on vulnerable peripheral areas and social groups.

Planning processes should be fully opened up to civil society / community groups representing their local interests, especially through public consultations, transparent data publication and possibly local referendums on a selection of proposals. This should help in particular to achieve improvements in access to social and environmental services.

Critical is improved transparency of real estate transactions and ownership, including transactions made by local authorities to raise investment capital.

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The private sector is probably the most important “driver” of urban development in Viet Nam. Yet, urban planning is still conceived as a solely government exercise without involving the private sector, which has however primary interests in good adaptation planning and low carbon development as it will save costs and create business opportunities. They should be fully incorporated into the planning process through transparent data publication and consultation processes.

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessments must be fully integrated into city development strategies and plans (land use plans, SEDPs, construction plans, transport plans, etc.). There is a particular need for land use plans to play a larger role in determining other plans.

[The following box is (again) only about vulnerability and adaptation, which is limiting]

Steps to be taken by Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee [for what?]

Prepare an action plan for climate change response of HCMC Reform the Flood Protection Agency into Climate change Mitigation and Adaptation agency Establish climate change mitigation and adaptation fund Providing funding for climate change mitigation and adaptation in 5 year cycle Modify, adapt current strategies and plans (for example the dike system) Pilot studies on adaptive measures Re-assess and modify the land use plan as an effective way to promote and implement

adaptation Implement selected adaptation measures in order to filter and re-assess all spatial planning and

sector planning, and Incorporate climate change impacts in to SEA and EIA in order to integrate climate change into

socio-economic planning.

Source: ADB & HCM City PC (2008), Vulnerability and Adaptation Analysis [full reference in list]

Finance for adaptation actions must be accessed, and will come from multiple sources. International public finance (ODA) will be limited and should be applied to technical assistance and capacity building (mostly grants) as well as the most strategic and perhaps pilot infrastructure investments (mostly from loans). Most adaptation infrastructure will however require domestic investment capital, only some of which can be generated from the private sector. Infrastructure investments must be planned within a comprehensive and integrated scheme and include full cost-benefit analysis109

Finance for mitigation must be leveraged mainly in the business sector, which holds most technological knowledge and potential for innovation. This requires strategic investments in capacities by the public sector (domestic funds and ODA), and this must enhance fiscal and regulatory policies to ensure that private investment is made in energy efficiency, renewable energy generation, and clean production and transport technologies.

Viet Nam has embarked on a decentralization program. A cornerstone of this program was the approval of the 1996 State Budget Law. The 2002 State Budget Law consolidated the reforms and gave provincial (municipal) governments much greater discretion over the budgets of districts and communes under their authority. This provides the opportunity for more efficient and equitable resource mobilization and allocation. The decentralization has been a substantial, with the share of local governments in total expenditures increasing from 26 percent in 1992 to 48 percent in 2002. This helps major cities in investing in climate change responses, but to generate additional resources to support actions, municipal

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governments, and particularly in small and medium sized towns will need extensive support in planning, managing and financing adaptation infrastructure.

6. Summary of conclusions and recommendations [This should summarise the main conclusions and recommendations made in chapters 2-5,

meaning some repetition. It should not introduce new ideas (which it still does, despite the fact that I have started to edit – but such points should be made in earlier chapters).]

Climate change action offers development opportunities. Climate change adaptation and mitigation measures can have co-benefits, and in fact it is those co-benefits that should largely determine what the priority actions are.

Planned adaptation demands policy and institutional change to reduce the negative impacts of climate change. If these changes are managed well and the right decisions are made now the pressure of climate change could result in opportunities for more sustainable and therefore more competitive cities.

Certain city governments are at the forefront of innovation, globally. They have the technical capacity and political willingness to integrate climate change adaptation and GHG emissions mitigation into city development plans. Examples show that making cities safe from environmental threats also has positive effect on the urban economy and environmental health.

Cities have important potential advantages to both climate adaptation and mitigation. By concentrating population, buildings and enterprises, cities provide many economies of scale and proximity to services.

There are many co-benefits between adaptation and development as better quality buildings served with needed infrastructure (for water, sanitation, drainage and electricity) and services reduce many climate change related risks. There are also a range of potential co-benefits between development and mitigation – for instance the switch to cleaner fuels in production, households and electricity generation that reduces GHG emissions and air pollution. GHG emissions mitigation also helps reduce other pollutants and contributes to cleaner air and therefore contributes to a healthy and more sustainable living environment.

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Annex Examples of urbanization and climate change adaptation challenges

[Use cases in text-boxes throughout or refer to the annex in the text?]The choices made in urban development and planning significantly affect the level of climate-

related risk at which cities find themselves. Below are a number of examples of urban problems caused by unchecked development and ineffective planning practices, many of which will be enhanced by shocks and stresses from climate change.

Case 1 Gaps in Drainage Infrastructure and Inconsistent Maintenance

Poor maintenance and gaps in the drainage system increase risk in poor and unplanned urban areas. The sewerage and drainage system of Hanoi combines both industrial and domestic wastewater, storm water and street cleaning water and is managed by municipal drainage companies. It is estimated that only 70 % of total length of the city’s roads are equipped with primary drains. The remaining sewerage and drainage network in small alleys and living quarters is under management responsibility of the local authorities without drainage expertise.

Most of the existing sewerage and drainage channels in small alleys in Hanoi are small in size, have a low hydraulic slope, an inappropriate structure, and the amount of sludge and sediment that settled in the system is relatively high. The result is a system incapable of handling moderate flooding, in spite of its intended design.

Case 2 Phu My Hung: Infill in Flood Prone areas Transfers Risk

Phu My Hung, a new urban area in the south of Ho Chi Minh City, has been touted as an example of engineering and investment accomplishment. Promotional literature for the development states: “Phu My Hung is a modern New City Centre, built from the marshland in the south of Ho Chi Minh City. Over 15 years of development…which have marked the changes of the land and achievements through the great efforts of the investors and the government.”110

Phu My Hung stretches over the low-lying lands south of Ho Chi Minh City centre, an area which once had high absorption capacity, collecting runoff from districts in central Ho Chi Minh City. During the construction of Phu My Hung, numerous small streams, lakes, and swamps were filled. It is estimated that 2,6000 ha have been reclaimed for the project.

The development of Phu My Hung, coupled with the development of 10,000ha of surrounding farmland, has increased flooding in other parts of Ho Chi Minh City. 111 This transferal of risk contributed to floods affecting almost half of the wards in Ho Chi Minh City in late 2009. An estimate from HCM City Department of Agriculture and Rural Development estimates annual flood losses in the city at 14 trillion VND (nearly $780 million).112

Case 3 Illegal Encroachment Reduces Lakes and Open Spaces

The area of lakes and ponds in Hanoi has shrunk due to encroachment of the people living nearby. Van Chuong and Linh Quang lakes used to be a green lung of the Dong Da District. However, for the past ten years temporary houses, toilets, kitchens, animal sheds, yards for wastes business, etc. have been established around the lakes, severely polluting them.

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Hundreds of cases of illegal encroachment have been reported across Ha Noi. Urban lakes and wetlands are often filled in with sand and then quickly sold illegally. Viet Nam News Reports that Chuong My District have witnessed widespread illegal encroachment of reservoirs in the past year and requests from Day River Irrigation Company to halt the encroachment have fallen on deaf ears.113

Case 4 District 2, HCMC: Ad Hoc Approach to Climate Proofing

In 2009 a decision was made to raise sewerage and water supply infrastructure one metre in some areas of Ho Chi Minh City’s District 2. However, this was not done in a comprehensive district-wide in a manner. Inundation from the river ended up flooding half the district since the district area was not climate proof.

Case 5 Ineffective Land Use In Peri-Urban Areas Affects Absorption Capacity

Peri-urban agricultural land, which also serves to absorb flood water from urban areas, is rapidly disappearing. Conversion of land from agricultural use or open space to residential and commercial development has been an important source of income and a helpful instrument for local government’s to meet their land use targets. Deputy Minister of DONRE, Mr. Ngoc Tran criticized several provinces for excessive arable land conversion, which has been blamed for the uncontrollable conversion of arable land that seriously harmful for food security.

Case 6 Poorly Coordinated Plans Undermine Development Controls

Within the urban planning system in Viet Nam, two types of land use plans exist: the ‘construction plan’, produced by Departments of Construction (DOC) or the Department of Planning and Architecture and the ‘land use plan’ prepared by Department of Natural Resources & Environment (DONRE). This is often causing conflicts: The ‘construction plan’ typically includes designations for land use, but this can be different from DONRE’s land use plan in terms of scope and objectives. A construction development plan is revised according to its periods and needs; meanwhile land use planning of DONRE has its own purpose, periods, and priorities. There is documented evidence of developers facing a green-light from DOC and a red-light from DONRE.

Case 7 Unplanned Areas Lack Adaptive Design and Infrastructure

Before 1998, most housing re-development (including self-help housing in the suburb) in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh were built without permission.114 After 1999, things improved as a result of efforts from municipal and district governments, supported by the MoC’s Construction Investigation Force. By 2005, 60% of the houses built in Hanoi were licensed, and this rate was above 90% by 2009. However, the scars of the pre-1999 period are permanent, demonstrated by poor quality housing, poor access and the loss of water and open spaces. In addition to below standard properties, many of these unplanned areas have insufficient or incomprehensive drainage infrastructure. The cost of climate proofing these areas is now significantly higher than it would have been had the areas been properly planned.

Case 8 “Hard” Adaptation Can Lead to the Transfer of Risks

Viet Nam has a history of building dikes to protect human settlements. While most dikes have functioned well, they are expensive to build and have proven unable to provide comprehensive coverage. This has sparked a debate about the applicability of ‘hard’ engineering solutions. Recent climate change effects, according to Peter Chaudhry and Greet Ruysschaert in UNDP’s Human

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Development Report, saw the phrase “living with the floods” take centre stage.115 A dike proposed for HCMC in 2008 was found to “turn the city into a fish bowl” in the words of Jeremy Carew Reid of ICEM, due to poor drainage networks, inadequate open land and encroached upon water bodies.116 A recent shift has led to soft adaptations, including upstream forestation (Hanoi) and mangrove planting along the coastline.

Case 9 Poor Data Sharing and Spatial Analysis Deprives Planners of a Key Tool

According to the MegaCities Project in Ho Chi Minh City, “spatially explicit vulnerability assessment” should be the basis for land use and construction planning.117 Mapping and data sharing, however, is inconsistent and departments tend to work in isolation. For urban mapping and data collection, for example, DOC and DONRE use their own managerial codes and maps. There is almost no regular protocol to update base maps between district and city authorities, between DOC and DONRE, and amongst other agencies. The team for the Local Resilience Action Plan in Hanoi found that many districts and 100% of wards lacked digital maps. Municipal agencies which did possess digital programs, “produced maps for their own purposes.”118 In the past, hazard maps were produced by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development for disaster risk management purposes, but these were not comprehensive and lacked consistent data.119

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References[this should follow a chosen format, for example the format of the entries made here]

Action Aid Viet Nam & Oxfam Viet Nam. (2009) The impacts of the global economic crisis on migration patterns in Viet Nam: Findings from rapid assessments in five provinces and cities, March - August 2009. Hanoi: Action Aid Viet Nam and Oxfam Viet Nam

Adger, W. Neil, P. Mick Kelly, Alexandra Winkels, Luong Quang Huy and Catherine Locke. (2002) Migration, Remittances, Livelihood Trajectories, and Social Resilience. Ambio Vol. 31 No. 4, June 2002 Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.

Chaudhry, Peter and Ruysschaert, Greet. (2007) Climate Change and Human Development in Viet Nam, a desk research paper by UNDP and Oxfam Great Britain, Human Development Report Office, Occasional Paper 2007/46, New York: UNDP.

Dasgupta, S., B. Laplante, C. Meisner, D. Wheeler, and J. Yan. (2007) The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: A comparative analysis. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4136 (WPS4136). Washington DC: World Bank.

Dun, Olivia. (2009) Linkages between Flooding, Migration and Resettlement, Viet Nam Case Study Report for Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios (EACH-FOR) funded by the European Commission, SERI (Austria) and ATLAS Innoglobe (Hungary).

Few, R. and Tran, P.G. (2010). Climatic hazards, health and poverty: exploring the connections in Viet Nam. Working paper 19, University of East Anglia, UK.

Harmeling, Sven. (2010) Global Climate Risk Index 2011. Who Suffers Most From Extreme Weather Events? Weather-Related Loss Events in 2009 and 1990 to 2009. Bonn & Berlin: Germanwatch.

Hugo, G. (2008) Migration, Development and Environment. IOM Migration Research Series, No. 35. Geneva: International Organization for Migration (IOM).

IPCC. (2007) IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007. Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and NewYork, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.

MONRE. (2008) The National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change (NTP-RCC). Hanoi: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment [check publication]

MONRE. (2009) Climate Change, Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Viet Nam. Hanoi: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment

Ta Thi Thanh Huong, and Neefjes, Koos. (2010) Climate change and social services. Working Paper for the 2010 Viet Nam Human Development Report “People-centered institutions for human resource development” Final draft, September 2010. Hanoi: UNDP-Vietnam.

UN and Oxfam in Viet Nam. (2009) Responding to climate change in Viet Nam: Opportunities for improving gender equality. A policy discussion paper. Hanoi: United Nations and Oxfam in Viet Nam.

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UN-Viet Nam. (2009a) Viet Nam and Climate Change: A discussion paper on policies for sustainable human development. Hanoi: United Nations in Viet Nam.

UN Viet Nam. (2009b) Climate Change Fact Sheet: The effects of climate change in Viet Nam and the UN’s response (version of 19 October 2009). Hanoi: United Nations in Viet Nam.

Wilbanks, Tom and Patricia Romero Lankao with Manzhu Bao, Frans Berkhout, Sandy Cairncross, Jean-Paul Ceron, Manmohan Kapshe, Robert Muir-Wood and Ricardo Zapata-Marti. (2007), “Chapter 7: Industry, Settlement and Society”, in: Parry, Martin, Osvaldo Canziani, Jean Palutikof, Paul van der Linden and Clair Hanson (editors) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pages 357-390. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.

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Endnotes

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1 Harmeling, 2010, shows this for the period 1990-2009 [get also a ref from MARD disasters papers]2 This caused blackouts in 2009 and 2010, whereas major hydroelectric lakes remain under capacity at the end of

the rainy season of 20103 See for example the “Cancun Agreements”, reached in late 2010 under the Conference of Parties (COP) to the

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), particularly “Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working

Group on long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention” (Draft decision -/CP.16, available on

http://unfccc.int/2860.php )4 UN - Viet Nam, 2009a5 Article in Vietnam News [ref?]6 IPCC, 2007; UNDP, 2007 [full ref in list of references]7 Prime Minister Decision 158/2008/QĐ-TTg, 2 December 2008 8 Prime Minister Decision 79/2006/QĐ-TTg, 14 April 2006 9 MoNRE 10 MOC11 ACCCRN, the Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network, has pilot projects in Can Tho, Da Nang, and Quy

Nhon with local DoNREs; see http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/what-we-do/current-work/developing-climate-

change-resilience/asian-cities-climate-change-resilience . The World Bank’s Climate Resilient Cities Projects has

written an Action Plan for Hanoi together with DoNRE [contact?]. The MegaCities Project is currently active in HCMC

[contact?].12 National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change. [????]Resolution No. 60/2007/Nq-Cp, p. 39-40 13 Ibid [never use this in automated notes: give the actual ref]14 Prime Minister, 2009, p.2 [ref?]15 Decision No. 445/QĐ-TTg dated 07/04/200916 Kundu, Amitabh. Urbanisation and Migration: An Analysis of Trend, Pattern and Policies in Asia. Human

Development Research Paper. April 2009. [publisher?]17 Waibel Michael. “Migration to Greater Ho Chi Minh City in the course of Doi Moi Policy” Spatial Dimensions,

Consequences and Policy Changes with special reference to Housing. University of Hamburg [date?]18 Waibel, Michael. “Migration to Greater Ho Chi Minh City in the course of Doi Moi Policy” Spatial Dimensions,

Consequences and Policy Changes with special reference to Housing. University of Hamburg [date?]19 Garschagen, Matthias. “Urban Climate Change Adaptation in Vietnam – Institutional Challenges and Research

Agenda.” Bonn: UN University, Institute for Environment and Human Security [full ref in list? I think our text should

not talk of the misused term “climate refugees” and I have deleted that]20 United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) Report on “Human

security, climate change, and environmentally induced migration” (version 30 May 2008) [correct ref in list?]21 ACCRN and Megacities project both identified these constraints [ref?]22 See “Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on long-term Cooperative Action under the

Convention” (Draft decision -/CP.16)23 See also “Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on long-term Cooperative Action under the

Convention” (Draft decision -/CP.16)24 Temperatures in Northern climate zones of the country increased faster than that in the South (MONRE, 2009:

http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/what-we-do/current-work/developing-climate-change-resilience/asian-cities-climate-change-resilience

http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/what-we-do/current-work/developing-climate-change-resilience/asian-cities-climate-change-resilience

http://unfccc.int/2860.php

4-5). 25 These projections contain uncertainties, which are explained by low confidence of emission scenarios, errors of

climate models, errors in the statistical downscaling method, and differences of climatic factors by location (MONRE,

2009: 17). However, these uncertainties should be no means lead to doubt the massive scale of the climate change

risks and likely effects.26 MONRE, 200927 Harmeling, 201028 Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre http://www.adpc.net/v2007/Programs/UDRM/PROMISE/INFORMATION

%20RESOURCES/Monthly-Enews/2006/Sep/September2006.asp [accessed when?]29 Disaster Risk Management Programs For Priority Countries East Asia And Pacific, p. 52 [full ref in list? Author

and page here]30 Weathering the Storm: Options for Disaster Risk Financing in Vietnam. Word Bank, 2010. [full ref in list?]31 Hugo, 2008. The LECZ is the zone with elevation within 10 metres of mean sea level. 32 MOC estimation, report from HCMC Land and Housing Department report, 2004 [full reference in list?]33 ICEM presentation, 2009 [full reference in list? And why use an ICEM presentation instead of their publication?]34 [see presentation at Rockefeller seminar by Can Tho PC]35 Calculation in 2005, based on Hanoi statistical year book [need a proper reference].36 HAIDEP [year? full reference in list?]37 DONRE, 2009. [full reference in list?]38 HAIDEP report in June 2006, Section 10-19, by Almec, Nippon Koei, and Yachiyo. [this needs proper, full

reference in list]39 Viet Nam News. “Blocked drains cause flooding” 09/03/2010 [This reference should be in end notes not in

reference list, as it is a newspaper article. However, to use newspaper references is not generally a very good idea,

certainly not in Viet Nam where there is massive misreporting of numbers (journalists appear to be number blind):

what is the official report where this came from?]40 Harry Storch, Nigel Downes, Kiduk Moon, [full ref in list?] citing Tran Thi Van 2004; Ho Tong Minh Dinh et al.,

2006/ Le Van Trung et al., 2006.41 Satterthwaite, 2009 [full title in the reference list]42 Dodman, 2009:13 [full ref in list?]43 Coulthart et al., 2006.44 Waibel, Michael. “Migration to Greater Ho Chi Minh City in the course of Doi Moi Policy” Spatial Dimensions,

Consequences and Policy Changes with special reference to Housing. University of Hamburg [date? full title in the

reference list]45 World Bank data 2007 [this is a meaningless reference? full title in list is needed. Also, poverty data that are

more recent should be available easily]46 On migration see e.g. Action Aid Viet Nam & Oxfam Viet Nam, 2009; Adger et al., 2002; and also Chaudhry and

Ruysschaert, 2007; UN-Viet Nam, 200947 See: IPCC, 2007, which labelled the Mekong Delta in Viet Nam and Cambodia one of three global hotspots re

migration pressures as a result of sea level rise; Dasgupta et al., 2007; and UN-Viet Nam, 200948 Cecilia Tacoli Presentation (IIED) [this is not a complete and correct way of referencing], The links between

rural and urban development in Africa and Asia

http://www.adpc.net/v2007/Programs/UDRM/PROMISE/INFORMATION%20RESOURCES/Monthly-Enews/2006/Sep/September2006.asp

http://www.adpc.net/v2007/Programs/UDRM/PROMISE/INFORMATION%20RESOURCES/Monthly-Enews/2006/Sep/September2006.asp

49 Prof Dang Anh. “Scoping Study on the Contribution of Circular Migration to Poverty Reduction in India and

Vietnam” [date? full title in the reference list]50 Waibel [date?]51 Coulthart, Quang and Sharpe, Vietnam’s Infrastructure Challenge, 2006. [this is not a complete and correct way

of referencing]52 Nha Be, District 7 and Can Gio [ref?]53 Choosing Success, Harvard Vietnam Program January 2008[this is not a complete and correct way of

referencing]54 http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/09/poor-planning-behind-istanbul-deluge.php [accessed when? This

whole story seems summarized from one newspaper article, and that needs proper referencing. Are only the quotes

from the article or are they quotes in the article?]55 Tuoi Tre newspaper, 2009 [not an appropriate source: such data should come from official publications not

newspapers]56 Le, 2007 [full title in the reference list; also considering that 15% or so of all Vietnamese families are called Le]57 Poverty line is at 12,000,000VND/person/year [source? When was this? Has the poverty line not recently been

updated?]58 Any action plan to respond to climate change (and other hazards and risks) should consider all kinds of

vulnerabilities and the conditions contributing to that vulnerability, and the alternatives to change the conditions and

reduce vulnerability.59 Viet Nam Water & Sanitation Sector Assessment, Strategy and Roadmap. Asian Development Bank, Southeast

Asia Department, Energy & Water Division. (Final Draft March 2010) [full ref in list?]60 Prof. Le Van Trung, Center of geographical information technology, Ho Chi Minh City National University.

http://tinnhanhvietnam.net/xa-hoi/su-co-cac-cong-trinh-co-lien-quan-den-tang-nuoc-ngam.html [accessed when?]61 Nguyen Van Dan and Nguyen Thi Dzung

“Groundwater pollution in the Hanoi area.” The Northern Hydro

geological Engineering Geological Division. Cau Giay – Ha Noi; Department of Geology and Minerals of Vietnam. 6

Pham Ngu Lao- Ha Noi [date? full title in the reference list]62 Nguyen Viet Anh, November 2008 [full reference in list?]63 http://www.xaydung.gov.vn/site/moc/faq?qId=1309 64 www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1969630,00.html [accessed when?]65 See the Cancun agreements: UNFCCC Draft decision [-/CP.16] Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working

Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention66 In Resolution No. 60/2007/NQ-CP dated December 3rd 2007 the Government has assigned MONRE to be in

charge in collaboration with other related ministries and sectors to develop a NTP for coping with global climate

change. (NTP p. 8)67 MPI. Draft SEDP 2011-2015 [full ref in list?]68 ADB Asian Development Outlook 2010. [full ref in list?]69 Workshop on PPP organized by MPI and WB, 25/06/2008. http://www.metvuong.com/thongtin/1664_Huy-

dong-von-ca-nhan-cho-phat-trien-co-so-ha-tang.html [accessed when?]70 (World Bank. Water Supply and Sanitation Strategy - Building on a solid foundation. 2006) [full ref in list?]71 April 2009 The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: A Regional Review ADB [full ref in list?]

http://www.metvuong.com/thongtin/1664_Huy-dong-von-ca-nhan-cho-phat-trien-co-so-ha-tang.html

http://www.metvuong.com/thongtin/1664_Huy-dong-von-ca-nhan-cho-phat-trien-co-so-ha-tang.html

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1969630,00.html

http://www.xaydung.gov.vn/site/moc/faq?qId=1309

http://tinnhanhvietnam.net/xa-hoi/su-co-cac-cong-trinh-co-lien-quan-den-tang-nuoc-ngam.html

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/09/poor-planning-behind-istanbul-deluge.php

72 Workshop on Public Private Partnership in Vietnam. MPI and WB. Hanoi 25/6/2008.73 The urban population would rise to 40-42 million people in 2030 according to Coulthart et al., 2006. However,

this does not take into account unregistered migrants. If these would be included the number would reach as a high as

52 million by 2025, according to the MoC [ref in list?].74 Pricewaterhouse Coopers (Ho Chi Minh City, 09 November 2009)75 Urbanization Review [full reference in list?]76 Choosing Success, Harvard Vietnam Program January 2008 [quoted from page?]77 Choosing Success, Harvard Vietnam Program January 2008 [in endnote limit to author and year – ref in ref list]78 Choosing Success, Harvard Viet Nam Program January 2008 [quoted from page?]79 Global Environment Facility .Investing In Sustainable Urban Transport: The GEF Experience. 2009 [full ref in list?]80 [references that can be used here include the UNDP HDR (2007), the UN-VN factsheet on emissions, and VNs

second communication, on the UNFCCC website now]81 Vietnam’s CO2 emissions lower than regional, world levels. (05 June 2008) [ref?]82 World Bank energy data, 2009. [full ref in list?]83 Globalis [date? full ref in list?]84 “In Ho Chi Minh City, 50% of industrial equipments are obsolete, 40% are acceptable and 10% are modern

equipments” Do, Tuong Tri. Ho Chi Minh City Energy: The Source And Challenge For The Next Year. 200385 Do, Tuong Tri. Ho Chi Minh City Energy: The Source And Challenge For The Next Year. 2003 [full ref in list?]86 Vietnam Business News. “Energy Conservation in Households” May 10, 201087 Storch et al. [full reference in list?]88 Govinda R. Timilsina and Ashish Shrestha (2009) Policy Research Working Paper: Why have CO2 Emissions

Increased in the Transport Sector in Asia? World Bank. 89 Govinda R. Timilsina and Ashish Shrestha, 2009, citing IEA data (2007b, c) [for energy / fuel use data use

MONRE, MOIT data; UN data sheet that summarises it?]90 JICA[ref?]. HAIDEP, 200691 TRAMOC [ref?]92 Clean Air in Vietnam: Summary of Progress on Improving Urban Air Quality. 2008 [full ref in list? Publisher?]93 Vietnam News: HCM City Pollution Alarming. (16:54' 03/01/2010) 94 http://www.c40cities.org/bestpractices/lighting/vietnam_lighting.jsp [accessed when?]95 See the following website for detailed updates of the CDM in Viet Nam: [in the earlier draft text there was a lot

of detail on the CDM in VN which is not needed; the information was cut and paste from the website, which is highly

inappropriate for any text such as this without quotation marks and reference]96 New Amsterdam Climate: Summary of Plans and Ongoing Projects, 2008 [full ref in list?]97 Projects like the United Nations’ Green One UN House in Hanoi also raise awareness.98 “Transport uses 30% of the fuel in developed countries. In Vietnam it should still be only 5%!” TRAMOC

presentation: The Nine Challenges for the Development of Transport in the Fast Growing Capital of Vietnam: Hanoi.

TRAMOC [date?]99 Vietnam News Article [ref?]100 Personal communication: Jeremy Carew-Reid, director of the ICEM at Seminar in Hanoi on the Masterplan

2009 [exact date?]

http://www.c40cities.org/bestpractices/lighting/vietnam_lighting.jsp

101 DONRE, 2009.102 Alan Coulthart, Nguyen Quang, and Henry Sharpe. Urban Development Strategy: Meeting the Challenges of

Rapid Urbanization and Transition to a Market Oriented Economy. World Bank. 2006.103 The reinforcement of the Construction investigators has been piloted in Hanoi and Hochiminh city since 2002.

In 2007, this force became permanent, and the number of man powers working in Hanoi and Hochiminh city increase

10 times comparing to a decade before.104 Annual Report from Department of Construction in Hanoi, from 2002 to 2008.105 Haidep, 2007 [ in other places this would be 2006?]106 Conference in Danang, December 2009 on climate change threats and opportunities, UNDP.107 National and Regional Planning Bureau, MLIT, Japan [ref?]108 Front-end process highlights the focus of planning method that creating outcomes that helps addressing

concrete problems in the identified constraints on resources. These are both at the beginning and end result

development plan. Meanwhile, Master plan aims at creating long-term future development that focuses on new

construction buildings without detailed guidelines to monitor outcomes of each activity in the development processes.109 This point is one of the key challenges identified by ACCCRN Viet Nam (Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience

Network: Responding to the Urban Climate Challenge. Eds. ISET, Boulder, Colorado, USA, November 2009, page 16)110 http://phumyhung.com.vn/eng/introduce.php?id=1 [accessed when?] 111 Viet Nam News. “Blocked drains cause flooding” 09/03/2010112 Vietnam Net. Ho Chi Minh City Loses Nearly 780 Million in Floods” (Thursday, 11 March 2010) 113 Vietnam News. “Encroachment on Lakes” [date, link?]114 MOC, Hanoi, and HCM City reports, 1997-2000. [ref?]115 Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007116 Masterplan workshop. Hanoi, 2009. [full reference in list?]117 Harry Storch, Nigel Downes, Kiduk Moon, [full reference in list?]118 Hanoi Local Resilience Action Plan for the City of Hanoi. World Bank and DoNRE. 2010., p 87 [full reference in

list; author and page here]119 Disaster Risk Management Programs For Priority Countries East Asia And Pacific, p. 52 [full reference in list;

author and page here]

http://phumyhung.com.vn/eng/introduce.php?id=1

Documents

Chapter 1: VULNERABLE CITIES - Web view... and specifically urban planning systems and practices within the context of climate change. This recommends an approach to city planning