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Chapter 18 Population and Society. Demographic factors, changes, and theories. 3 hours MC (7 Chapters x 9=63) Short answer questions 3 of 5 One mandatory Total 4 x 4 marks=16 marks total. Essay Questions 8 questions posted on web before exam (Tues April 01) During exam… - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Chapter 18Population and Society
Demographic factors, changes, and theories
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Final Exam 3 hours MC (7 Chapters x 9=63) Short answer questions
3 of 5 One mandatory Total 4 x 4 marks=16
marks total. Essay Questions
8 questions posted on web before exam (Tues April 01)
During exam… One mandatory plus 2 of 4 Total of 3 essay questions 12 marks each
Total 115 marks
Chapter 11-religion Chapter 12-politics Chapter 13-social
movements Brym Chapter 3
Chapter 14-class, inequality Chapter 15-gender Chapter 16-ethnicity, race
Brym Chapter 4 Chapter 18-population,
demography.
MC & Short Answer on above (since last midterm)
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Essays returned at exam Post “grades to date”
Away April 2-8 Review Sessions, questions
Afternoons April 10 (F307, 1-2) April 11 (F307, 1-2).
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Demography A study of the growth, distribution,
and development of populations with respect to their geographic concentration and composition (by age, sex, marital status, etc.)
Demographic factors: fertility, mortality, and migration determine changes in population size
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Why demography is important? -first used for ... taxation &
conscription -guidelines for allocation of resources -planning for future social policies -evaluation of social policy,
international comparisons -gerontology researchers ....
relationships between different groups in population age structures.
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Boom, Bust & Echo: How to Profit From The Coming Demographic Shift(1996) David Foote
demographics is the key to understanding the past & forecasting the future. “Your year of birth is one of the most
important things about you.” Demographic determinism?
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born
born
* (1920-1930 cohort)
Banting & Best 1921 Depression
1929-39
WW11914-18
WW II1939-45
1980-1990cohort
Aside – cohort, period, maturation effects
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Population Aging -demographic or population aging is the
process whereby an entire population grows older. Indicators:
Mean age, median age, proportion 65+ The phenomenon of Population Aging is:
Unprecedented Pervasive Profound Enduring
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Population Aging
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“He ain’t heavy, he’s my boomer”Debate grows over seniors as burden? Toronto Star (May 27, 2007)
-past contributions-voluntary work-removed
mandatory retirement
Pensions Health care Housing Etc…
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Foot & Stoffman (1998) described life circumstances of birth cohorts born between
1914 – 1995.
(in million) current cohort born number age
baby-boom 1947-1966 9.9 30-50 baby-bust 1967-1979 5.6 25-35baby-boom 1980-1995 6.5 9-24
-echo
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Think about the “experiences” of these two cohorts Wave Surfers (1945-
55) More jobs,
advancement Lower home prices
Earned 1/3 more than fathers.
Junior Boomers (1956-1965)
Youth unemployment High
mortgage/interest rates
Higher grades university entry
Made 10% less than fathers
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Population Population is a collection of persons
alive at a specified time, that meets certain criteria Often national or geographic criteria
Population is a collectivity and it persists over time
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Membership of a population is continuously changing through processes of: Attrition: losses through out-migration and
death Accession: gains through birth and
immigration
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Interconnectedness of Demographic and Social Change
Aggregate demographic phenomena are the collective expression of individual behaviour conditioned by cultural norms and social structure
Examples: Acceptance of cohabitation causes decline in
total marriage rate and the median age at marriage
Changes in geographic origin of immigrants cause changes in Canadian society
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Examples (continued…) Changes in public health, medicine, and
standard of living at the turn of the 20th century have caused the size of today’s population of North America
The bubonic plague caused development of universities, and then nationalism, in the 15th-century Europe
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History of the World Population Until 1750:
Slow population growth
After 1750: Population explosion, particularly since the
early 19th century
The world population growth peaked in the 1970s, and has declined since
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Expectations for the 21st century: Most of the population growth will take
place in developing countries Annual increase between 2.6 and 2.5%
Population growth in the developed countries will be 0.1% annually
World population 1999 approx 6 billion, estimated to be 8 billion by 2022.
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The Future of the World Population Even if current fertility rates decline below
the replacement rate (2.1 children per woman), the population will continue to grow because of population momentum
Because of past high fertility and mortality decline, the proportion of population in reproductive ages will continue to grow Therefore kids are born!
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Because of decline in fertility, the population will grow older
The potential support ratio will decline
Potential support ratio: the number of persons of working age per one older person Eg: Italy from 4 to 2 (2 aged 15-64 for “every
older person”)
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Age Compositions Fertility plays a greater role than mortality
in determining the age composition
Low-fertility societies (in developed countries) have relatively few people in younger age brackets
Rapidly growing populations (in developing countries) form an age pyramid with a wide base and narrow top
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http://www.scalloway.org.uk/popu4.htm
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When the large young population in these countries reaches the working age, there may be a developmental opportunity or social unrest and political instability Why?
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Theories of Population Change Two opinions regarding the
interrelationship of population and resources: Curbing population growth is essential to
the balance between humans, resources, and the sustainable environment (Malthus)
Population size is a minor factor in this interrelationship (Marx)
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Demographic Transition Developed on the basis of changes in birth
and death rates in Western Europe in the context of socio-economic modernization -gradual process …. society moves from having
high to low fertility/mortality rates (population aging begins).
Applicable to developing countries, although their vital rates have been changing in different structural conditions
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Stages: Pre-transitional: high birth and death
rates Transitional: high fertility and declining
death rates Final: low fertility and mortality
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“Demographic Transition” of Western Europe What is the population
change in each of the phases of transition?
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Modifications to Demographic Transition Theory The original theory posits that economic
development, urbanization, and decline in mortality preceded the decline in fertility
Coale: fertility declines when Fertility decisions are left to choice (i.e., cultural
and religious norms do not forbid fertility control) Reduced fertility is viewed as economically
advantageous Effective methods of fertility control are known and
available
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Declining mortality rates in developing countries have been achieved through family planning and public health programs offered by the industrialized countries
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Malthusian Theory of Population Malthus (1798) believed that:
Humans are strongly motivated by sexual desire
Humans are highly fertile. Therefore, population follows geometric
(exponential) progression Economic resources, particularly food
production, follow arithmetic progression
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Population can be controlled by: Positive checks (famine, war, and disease) Negative checks (postponed marriage and
abstinence)
He considered contraception immoral
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Criticism of Malthusian Theory Failure to consider problem-solving
capacity of humans Agricultural and industrial revolutions were
responses to population growth
Optimal population size depends on the level of economic activity and consumption
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Reversal: population does not put pressure on economy Economy presses the population to
consume
Unacceptability of birth control is inconsistent with the goal of population control
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Canadian Population: Components of Growth Traditionally, natural increase has been
the main factor in population growth Two-thirds of the growth in the last 150
years
Since the 1980s, immigration has accounted for half of the population growth
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Canadian Population: Mortality Crude death rate: 7
The number of deaths per 1,000 population)
Life expectancy at birth: 79 The average number of years of life for a
newborn under prevailing mortality conditions Increased life expectancy is caused by lower
infant mortality
Infant mortality: 5.3 Number of infant deaths divided per 1,000 live
births)
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Epidemiological Transition in Canada Industrialized societies have gone
through three epidemiological stages: Infectious and parasitic diseases, violence,
and accidents are leading causes of death; life expectancy is low
The “stage of receding pandemics” (1750–1900): infectious diseases are resisted, life expectancy increases
The stage of “man-made and degenerative diseases”: chronic and degenerative ailments, accidents, violence, and suicide are leading causes of death
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Canada is in the fourth stage It is similar to the third: survival by people
with degenerative diseases is increased, especially among the old
The majority of deaths is compressed past age 65
Compression of morbidity
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Canadian Population: Fertility Crude birth rate: 11
Number of births per 1,000 population
Total fertility rate: 1.49 Number of children a woman would bear
according to age-specific birth rates over her reproductive years
The highest TFR was in 1959: 3.94
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The proximate determinants of fertility are influenced by social factors The extent of non-marriage The level of contraceptive use The degree to which abortion is practiced The level of postpartum amenorrhea
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The Baby Boom Economic prosperity of the 1940s explains
the rise of marriage and early procreation
The major institutions provided security and stability Social safety-net was developed
Pro-natalist values promoted by the church
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Gender roles encouraged female preoccupation with marriage, motherhood, and home
These conditions changed in the 1960s due to women’s flight from domesticity and improvements in fertility control
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The Baby Bust Two explanations:
Economic: the rising material and non-material costs of parenting
Rising value of time for women Hamper career / potential income “Psychic” costs
Cyclical theory: the size of one’s birth cohort influences one’s economic opportunities, and therefore one’s parenting preferences
This is a self-regulatory process
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Sociological explanations: structural and economic forces interact with ideational factors
Fertility changes are based on diffusion of changing ideas
Individualism Consumerism
Material preferences/goals over early marriage, family building.
Sex-role revolution Emancipation from traditional sex roles, alternatives.
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Implications of Sub-replacement Fertility Can be followed through transformation
of age pyramids over the course of demographic transition: The true pyramid: a high percentage of
population under 15 The constrictive pyramid: fertility declines The stationary pyramid (Canada will attain it
in 2036)
48The Daily, Statistics Canada, Oct 26, 2006.
Median age
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Dependency Ratio (s) ratio examines number of “dependent
persons” or “non-workers”. In population supported directly or indirectly by those in labour force. Youth DR (#0-17 / 18-65) Old-age DR (#65+ / 18-65) Total DR
a ratio of 62 = there are 62 people(0-17 and 65+) for every 100 people 18-64. -in 2001 …..TDR = 62
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The elderly replace the youth as the dependent part of the population
Canada will probably need large numbers of immigrants to correct a low potential support ratio
Problems with DR ?
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Canadian Population: Migration 18% of Canadians are first-generation
immigrants
The traditionally British immigration started to diversify after WWII In the 1970s, Asia, Caribbean, Latin
America, and eastern Europe became major source areas
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Majority settle in large metropolitan areas that provide the most economic opportunities and supportive ethnic communities
Internal (interprovincial) migration follows a core–periphery pattern
Migration is most common at ages 20–34 It is also influenced by sex and marital status
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Doom, Gloom, something else?
Celebrate population aging? Innovations, policy modification International comparisons Winners/losers
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Eliminated mandatory retirement Life long learning
Increase immigration Increase home care Health promotion Etc..
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The Course Ends with a Graph Go figure !
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