Chapter 3

Demographic Perspectives

Developing a Demographic Perspective • Two Questions:

1. What are the causes of population growth (or, at least, population change)?

2. What are the consequences of population growth or change?

Chapter Outline• Premodern Population Doctrines

Termsdemographic perspective (p. 67)

a way of relating basic information to theories about how the world operates demographically

Doctrine (p. 67) a principle laid down as true and beyond dispute

Theory (p. 67) a system of assumptions, accepted principles, and rules of procedure devised to analyze, predict, or otherwise explain a set of phenomena

Premodern DoctrinesDate Demographic Perspective

~1,300 bc Genesis—“Be fruitful and multiply.”

~500 bcConfucius—Governments should maintain balance between population and resources.

~360 bcPlato—population quality more important than quantity

~340 bcAristotle—population should be limited; abortion might be appropriate.

Premodern DoctrinesDate Demographic Perspective

~100 bcCicero—population growth necessary to maintain the Roman Empire.

~400 a.d. St. Augustine—abstinence is preferred way to deal with sexuality; second best is to marry and procreate.

The Renaissance in Europe began with

•Trade with the Muslim Ottoman Empire

•The receding of the Black Plague

•Growth of cities

Premodern Doctrines

~1280 a.d.St. Thomas Aquinas—celibacy is not better than marriage and procreation.

~1380 a.d.

Ibn Khaldun—population growth increases occupational specialization and raises incomes.Procreation stimulated by high hopes and heightening of animal energies.

Columbian Exchange (p. 72) the exchange of food, products, people, and diseases between Europe and the Americas as a result of explorations by Columbus and others

Mercantilism (p. 72) the view that a nation’s wealth depended on its store of precious metals and that generating this kind of wealth was facilitated by population growth

Physiocratic (p. 73) the philosophy that the real wealth of a nation is in the land, not in the number of people

Premodern DoctrinesDate Demographic Perspective

~1500–1800

Mercantilism—increasing national wealth depends on a growing population that can stimulate trade.

~1700–1800

Physiocrats—population size depends upon the wealth of the land, which is stimulated by free trade.

Mercantilism

Supported by the demographic analysis of John Graunt, William Petty and Edmund Halley.

Graunt’s work was based on the Bills of Mortality that became the first know statistical analysis of demographic data.

Sussmilch – Improvements in agriculture and industry would postpone overpopulation into the future.

Chapter Outline• The Prelude To Malthus• Major Events/periods preceding the

publication of Malthus’s book on population Columbian Exchange Enlightenment French Revolution

Modern TheoriesDate Demographic Perspective

1798Malthus—population grows exponentially, food supply grows arithmetically; poverty is the result in the absence of moral restraint.

~1800Neo-Malthusian—birth control measures are appropriate checks to population growth.

~1844Marxian—each society has its own law of population that determines consequences of population growth; poverty is not the natural result of population growth.

Influences on Malthus• The writings of the Marquis de

Condorcet were an important precursor to Malthus’s Essay on Population.

• William Godwin – Scientific progress would increase the amount of food far beyond what was possible at the time.

Malthus’s Principle of Population

The essential element was that population grew geometrically while food increased arithmetically

Malthus’s Principle of Population

• checks to growth Factors that have kept population growth from reaching its biological potential for covering the earth with human bodies.

• positive checksCauses of mortality. – War, pestilence, famine

• preventive checksAll possible means of birth control, including abstinence, contraception, and abortion.

Checks to growth

• moral restraintAccording to Malthus, the only acceptable means of preventing a birth: postpone marriage, remaining chaste in the meantime.

• Means of subsistence – Ultimate check to growth

Malthus’s Principle of Population

Malthus’s idea about moral restraint

Postpone marriage

Marry only when you can afford children

Chapter Outline• The Prelude To The Demographic

Transition Theory• The Theory Of The Demographic

Transition• The Demographic Transition Is Really A

Set Of Transitions

The Malthusian Perspective• Malthus argued that people have a

natural urge to reproduce, and the increase in the food supply cannot keep up with population growth.

• The major consequence of population growth, according to Malthus, is poverty.

• Within that poverty is the stimulus for action that can lift people out of misery.

Critiques of Malthus Assertion that food production

could not keep up with population growth.

Conclusion that poverty was an inevitable result of population growth.

Belief that moral restraint was the only acceptable preventive check.

The Marxian Perspective• Each society at each point in history

has its own law of population that determines population growth. For capitalism, the consequences

are overpopulation and poverty. For socialism, population growth is

readily absorbed by the economy with no side effects.

Marx on Malthus• Marx

Malthus's "natural law of population” only natural in capitalist societies

Poverty is the result of the evils off social organization.

John Stuart Mill• Basic thesis was that the standard of

living is a major determinant of fertility levels.

• The ideal state is that in which all members of a society are economically comfortable.

• Fear of slipping socially was a motivation to limit fertility

• People do not “Propagate like Swine”87

Arsène Dumont• Late 19th century French demographer

who felt he discovered a new principle of population called “social capillarity”. The desire of people to rise on the

social scale, to increase their individuality as well as their personal wealth.

• To ascend the social hierarchy requires that sacrifices be made.

Émile Durkheim• Based an entire social theory on the

consequences of population growth.• Population growth leads to greater

societal specialization, because the struggle for existence is more acute when there are more people.

• View of population growth similar to Khaldun.

Modern TheoriesDate Demographic Perspective

1945Demographic transition in its original form—the process where a country moves from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates.

1962Earliest studies suggesting the need to reformulate demographic transition theory.

1963

Demographic response made by individuals to population pressures is determined by the means available to them to respond; causes and consequences of population change are intertwined.

Demographic change and response

First response people will likely make to the population growth resulting from a decline in mortality is to work harder.

Second response would be to migrate.

Theory of the Demographic Transition• Emphasizes the importance of

economic and social development.• Leads first to a decline in mortality

and then to a commensurate decline in fertility.

• Based on the experience of the developed nations, and derived from the modernization theory.

1928 – Warren ThompsonGroup C Group B Group A

1945 - Frank NotesteinHigh Potential Growth Transitional Incipient Decline

Modern TheoriesDate Demographic Perspective

1968

Easterlin relative cohort size hypothesis —successively larger young cohorts put pressure on young men’s relative wages, forcing them to make a tradeoff between family size and overall well-being.

1971–present

Decomposition of the demographic transition into its separate transitions—mortality, fertility, age, migration, urbanization, and family and household.

Easterlin Relative Cohort Size Hypothesis• The standard of living you

experience in late childhood is the base from which you evaluate your chances as an adult.

• If you can improve your income as an adult compared to your childhood level, you are more likely to marry early and have several children.

Modernization Theory• Macro-level theory that sees human

actors as being buffeted by changing social institutions. Individuals did not deliberately lower

their risk of death to precipitate the modern decline in mortality.

Society wide increases in income and improved public health infrastructure brought about this change.

Demographic Transition: A Set of Transitions

1. Mortality transition -shift from deaths at younger ages due to disease to deaths at older ages due to degenerative diseases.

2. Fertility transition- the shift from natural (and high) to controlled (and low) fertility.

Demographic Transition: A Set of Transitions3. Age transition- social and economic

reactions as societies adjust to constantly changing age distributions.

4. Migration transition - Growth in the number of young people in rural areas will lead to an oversupply of young people looking for jobs, which encourages people to leave in search of economic opportunity.

Demographic Transition: A Set of Transitions5. Urban transition - begins with migration

from rural to urban areas and morphs into urban “evolution” as most humans are born in, live in, and die in cities.

6. Family and household transition - brought about by structural changes that accompany longer life, lower fertility, an older age structure, and urban instead of rural residence.