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Chapter 5: The United States: Policies and Scenarios
By Howard GellerSummary by John CarlinCritique by John Cadwell
Business as usual Base scenario for energy usage in
the next 20 years Increase in energy requirements Increase in pollution Digging ourselves in deeper
Possible U.S. Policy Actions Increase passenger vehicle fuel
economy standards Establish national system benefits trust
fund Adopt voluntary agreements to reduce
industrial energy use Establish renewable portfolio standard
for power generators Adopt new appliance efficiency
standards and stronger building codes
Possible U.S. Policy Actions (cont.) Provide tax incentives for innovative
renewable energy and energy-efficient technologies
Expand federal R&D programs Remove barriers to combined heat and
power systems Strengthen emissions standards on
coal-fired plants Establish renewable energy or carbon
content standards for vehicle fuel
Passenger vehicle fuel economy
Increase fuel efficiency standards at a rate of 5% for 10 years 44 mpg for cars 33 mpg for light trucks
Savings of 1.0 million barrels of oil per day by 2010 and 3.6 million barrels of oil per day by 2020.
National system benefits trust fund Establish a surcharge of about 0.2
cent/kWh Fees would go to fund efficiency
programs Savings of 300 terawatt-hours by
2010, 800 TWh by 2020
Voluntary industrial energy agreements Companies or industries would
voluntarily agree to reduce their energy intensity or carbon intensity
Similar to programs established in Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark
Renewable portfolio standard
Require utilities to purchase a certain fraction of their total power from non-hydro renewable resources
10% by 2010 and 20% by 2020 Already enacted in a limited form
(4% by 2010 and 10% by 2020%)
Appliance efficiency standards and building codes
Efficiency standards on all home appliances
Higher standards for transformers, exit signs, traffic lights, and lighting fixtures
95 billion kWh by 2010 and 265 billion kWh by 2020
Tax incentives for energy
Extend tax incentives to all non-hydro renewable energy sources
Increase tax incentives for new homes, commercial buildings, hybrid and fuel cell vehicles, CHP
Federal R&D programs Expand DOE’s energy efficiency
R&D by 15% per year and renewable energy programs by 20% per year
Total cost of $190 million per year Expected savings of about 1 quad
by 2010 and 3 quads by 2020
CHP system Barriers Remove government and utility
regulations that hinder CHP systems
Goal of adding 50,000 MW of new capacity by 2010 and another 95,000 MW of new capacity by 2020
Coal-fired plant emissions Change regulations to reduce the
number of old coal fired power plants grandfather in in 1970 by requiring plants to meet new emissions standards
or Provide credits for the shutdown of
old power plants
Energy or carbon content standards for vehicle fuel
Require gasoline suppliers to increase the fraction of renewable content in fuel
Push the development of bioethanol over ethanol to further reduce emissions
Net Effects Total energy use in 2010 down
from 86.5 quads to 79.2 quads Total energy use in 2020 down
from 98.3 quads to 78.4 quads Total savings for US is $554 in the
clean energy scenario
The End I’d like to thank the Academy, first of
all, for giving us the opportunity to be here. It means so very much to us. I’d like to thank my coworker John Carlin, for all the effort he put in, and Mr. Geller for the time and effort he exerted in creating such a dynamic piece. Without their efforts, I certainly wouldn’t be standing here. Thank you.