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Chapter 9 A Two-Period Model: The
Consumption-Savings
Decision and Credit
Markets
Copyright © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
1-2 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Chapter 9 Topics
• Consumer’s consumption/savings decision – responses of consumer to changes in income and interest rates.
• Government budget deficits and the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem.
1-3 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Budget Constraints
The consumer’s current-period budget constraint:
tysc −=+
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Budget Constraints
The consumer’s future-period budget constraint:
srtyc )1(''' ++−=
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Simplify
Solve the future-period budget constraint for s:
rtycs
+
+−=1
'''
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Next,
• Substitute in the current-period budget constraint obtaining lifetime budget constraint:
ty
rtycc −=
+
+−+1
'''
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Consumer’s Lifetime Budget Constraint
• Substitute in the current-period budget constraint obtaining lifetime budget constraint:
r
tytyrcc
+
−+−=
++
1''
1'
1-8 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Consumer’s Lifetime Wealth
rtytywe
+
−+−=1
''
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Simplified Lifetime Budget Constraint
wercc =+
+1'
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Simplified Lifetime Budget Constraint: Slope-Intercept
)1()1(' rwecrc +++−=
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Figure 9.1 Consumer’s Lifetime Budget Constraint
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Figure 9.2 A Consumer’s Indifference Curves
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Optimization
• Marginal condition that holds when the consumer is optimizing:
rMRS cc +=1',
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Figure 9.3 A Consumer Who Is a Lender
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Figure 9.4 A Consumer Who Is a Borrower
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An Increase in Current Income for the Consumer
• Current and future consumption increase. • Saving increases. • The consumer acts to smooth consumption over time.
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Figure 9.5 The Effects of an Increase in Current Income for a Lender
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Observed Consumption-Smoothing Behavior
• Aggregate consumption of non-durables and services is smooth relative to aggregate income, but the consumption of durables is more volatile than income.
• This is because durables consumption is economically more like investment than consumption.
1-19 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Figure 9.6 Percentage Deviations from Trend in Consumption of Durables and Real GDP
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Figure 9.7 Percentage Deviations from Trend in Consumption of Nondurables and Services and Real GDP
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An Increase in Future Income for the Consumer
• Aggregate consumption of non-durables and services is smooth relative to aggregate income, but the consumption of durables is more volatile than income.
• This is because durables consumption is economically more like investment than consumption.
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Figure 9.8 An Increase in Future Income
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Temporary and Permanent Increases in Income
• As a permanent increase in income will have a larger effect on lifetime wealth than a temporary increase, there will be a larger effect on current consumption.
• A consumer will tend to save most of a purely temporary income increase.
1-24 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Figure 9.9 Temporary Versus Permanent Increases in Income
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Figure 9.10 Stock Price Index and the Consumption of Nondurables and Services
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Figure 9.11 Scatter Plot: Consumption of Nondurables and Services vs. Stock Price Index
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Figure 9.12 An Increase in the Real Interest Rate
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An Increase in the Market Real Interest Rate
• An increase in the market real interest rate decreases the relative price of future consumption goods in terms of current consumption goods – this has income and substitution effects for the consumer.
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Figure 9.13 An Increase in the Real Interest Rate for a Lender
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Figure 9.14 An Increase in the Real Interest Rate for a Borrower
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Effects of an Increase in the Real Interest Rate for a Lender
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Effects of an Increase in the Real Interest Rate for a Borrower
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Perfect Complements Example
• With perfect complements, the ratio of future consumption to current consumption is constant.
• The consumer’s budget constraint must hold.
acc ='
wercc =+
+1'
1-34 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Perfect Complements Example
• With perfect complements we can solve explicitly for current and future consumption:
arrawec
arrwec
++
+=
++
+=
1)1('
1)1(
1-35 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Perfect Complements Example
⎥⎦
⎤⎢⎣
⎡++
−++−=
++
−++−=
artyrtyac
artyrtyc
1'')1)(('
1'')1)((
Substituting for lifetime wealth gives:
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Figure 9.15 Example with Perfect Complements Preferences
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Government Budget Constraints
The government’s current-period budget constraint:
BTG +=
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Government Budget Constraints
The government’s future-period budget constraint:
')1(' TBrG =++
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Government Budget Constraints
The government’s present-value budget constraint:
rTT
rGG
++=
++
1'
1'
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Credit Market Equilibrium Condition
• Total private savings is equal to the quantity of government bonds issued in the current period.
BS p =
1-41 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Income-Expenditure Identity
• Credit market equilibrium implies that the income-expenditure identity holds.
GCY +=
1-42 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Ricardian Equivalence
• The Ricardian Equivalence Theorem is illustrated algebraically, numerically, and in two graphs.
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Ricardian Equivalence
• Key equation: The consumer’s lifetime tax burden is equal to the consumer’s share of the present value of government spending – the timing of taxation does not matter for the consumer.
⎟⎠
⎞⎜⎝
⎛+
+=+
+r
GGNr
tt1'1
1'
1-44 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Ricardian Equivalence
• Then, substitute in the consumer’s budget constraint – taxes do not matter in equilibrium for the consumer’s lifetime wealth, just the present value of government spending.
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Figure 9.16 Ricardian Equivalence with a Cut in Current Taxes for a Borrower
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Figure 9.17 Ricardian Equivalence and Credit Market Equilibrium
Figure 9.18 Perfect Substitutes, MRSl,C <1 + r.
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Figure 9.19 Perfect Substitutes, MRSl,C <1 + r.
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Figure 9.20 Competitive Equilibrium in the Example
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Figure 9.21 Total Government Surplus for the United States
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Figure 9.22 Total government Debt (federal, state, and local)
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