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Chapter 9
No WSU Essay this chapter
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Chapter 9 – Scenario 1
•Are you going to vote when you are old enough? •Do you like the way candidates campaign for office? •Do attack ads effect your opinion of a candidate?
UK vs. US electionsPg. 279-280
Parliamentary, not presidential govt
Prime Minister, chosen by Parliament
Elections not on fixed schedule – called according to need
31 days for campaigning, not multi-year
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The Evolution of Campaigning
During election campaigns, political parties help structure voting choice
Successful campaigns need resources to acquire, analyze, and disseminate information Voter interests Campaign tactics Candidate message Voter turnout
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The Evolution of Campaigning
Until 1950s, political parties ran most campaigns
Today’s candidates manage own campaigns Races more candidate-centered Must campaign for nomination as
well as election Parties help with funding and party
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Nominations
American political parties use elections to choose party nominees In most other countries, party leaders
choose nominees In America, each state has own set of
laws regarding party nominations America puts large burden on voters 7http://ksgop.org/caucus/
Compared With What? Image of voter ballots for U.S.
and British elections See page 282-283
Compared with Britain and virtually all other countries, voting is complicated in U.S.
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Nomination for Congress and State Offices
All states use a primary election as all or part of the nomination process Preliminary election by party to select its
candidate Nomination process highly decentralized Only half of regular party voters vote in a
given primary – 20% in Aug. 2012 SG CO. http://www.kansas.com/2012/08/08/2441943/sedgwick-countys-voter-turnout.html
Many primary races have little or no competition – 25% of statewide have competition
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Primary Elections Four types of primary elections: (pg. 285)
Closed primaries – Must be registered in that party to vote on that party
Open primaries – Any voter can choose either party’s ballot
Modified closed primaries – individual state parties decide if unaffiliated can vote
Modified open primaries – all not registered with a party can choose any party ballot
The type of primary affects strength of party organizations
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Kansas Primary/Caucus In 2012, Republicans held closed
primaries; however, they allowed unaffiliated voters to register Republican on election day. Democrats allowed both affiliated and unaffiliated voters to vote.
http://www.fairvote.org/congressional-and-presidential-primaries-open-closed-semi-closed-and-top-two - see for a list of states
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Nomination for President
Presidential candidates for each party chosen at national convention – summer every 4 years
Until 1960s, party delegates to national convention chose nominee
Since 1972, delegates have been chosen by complex process that includes the primary election and party caucuses
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Selecting Convention Delegates
Different states and parties have different procedures for selecting delegates
States follow one of two basic formats: Presidential primary – individual vote Presidential caucus/convention - meetings
Democratic selection proportional; Republicans “winner takes all”
13Primary Caucus
Selecting Convention Delegates
Delegates selected openly back one of the presidential candidates
Primary elections and caucuses mean nominees’ names usually known before national conventions Early primaries and caucuses result in
“front-loading”
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Republican candidates need 1144 of 2286 delegates at Tampa in August to win nomination
Changes in the Presidential
Nominating Process
Until 1968 Since 1972
Party Dominated Candidate Dominated
Few Primaries Many Primaries
Short Campaigns Long Campaigns
Easy Money Difficult Fundraising
Limited Media Coverage Media Focused
Late Decisions “Front-Loaded”
Open Conventions Closed Conventions
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See page 286-287
Campaigning for the Nomination
A complex, drawn-out process Invisible primary early positioning for support
Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary viewed as testing grounds
In 2008, narrowed field to five Republicans and seven Democrats
“Super Tuesday” resulted in one Republican and two Democrats with the most support by voters
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16% Iowa caucus turnout. 52% NH
A Long, Drawn Out Process
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Campaigning for the Nomination
John McCain set as Republican nominee after Super Tuesday in 2008
Romney secured 1144 delegates May 29, 2012
Democratic contest not settled until June 7th, 2008
Winner-take-all- vs. proportional delegates a big difference in 2008
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Historic 2008 election Dems had a black and woman
defeat 8 white males Reps winner was neither early
favorite (Giuliani) nor most money (Romney)
Reps nominated first female VP in history (Ferraro for Dems in 1984)
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Figure 9.1 – Pg. 291
From Many to Two:
Presidential Hopefuls
Starting and Dropping Out
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-Over 100 candidates filed with the FEC to run for president in 2008. -The graph lists the 10 Dems and 12 Reps who raised enough $ to meet the FEC’s requirement for electronic filing. -Some candidates withdrew before the delegate selection process began. -Others dropped out for lack of support in primaries/caucuses.
2008
“Only in America” Marvels the World
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In early 2008, the world focused attention on the unprecedented contest between a woman and an African American for the presidential nomination of a major U.S. political party. A shopper in Tokyo pauses to watch returns from New Jersey
Consequences of Presidential Campaigns
Races with no incumbents contested in both parties
Incumbent presidents usually face little opposition
Iowa and New Hampshire do matter 20/22 nominees since 1972 were first in either Iowa or NH In 2008, Giuliani ignored these two to focus on later ones, and he
lost badly.
Candidates favored most by party identifiers usually win nomination
Winners owe little to national party organization
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Elections By national law, all seats in House
of Representatives and 1/3 of seats in Senate elected every two years in general election State and local offices also on ballot President chosen every 4th year in
presidential election Non-presidential elections
congressional, mid-term, or off-year elections
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Presidential Elections and the Electoral College
Presidency not automatically given to person with the most votes in the general election
General election selects electors who then select president
States receive one elector for each House and Senate seat (total members in Congress) Washington, D.C. also receives three
electors 538 total electoral votes
KS: 4 Reps + 2 Senators = 6 electoral votes
The Electoral College Candidate must have a majority of
electoral votes (270) to win presidency
If no candidate receives majority, decision on president made by the House; Senate chooses vice president Each state has one vote Has only happened in 1800 and 1824
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2012 Electoral MapObama vs. Romney
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2012 Presidential Election Results
Barack ObamaBarack Obama Mitt RomneyMitt Romney
Electoral VoteElectoral Vote 332332 206206
Popular VotePopular Vote 64,638,86264,638,862 60,382,06660,382,066
% Popular Vote% Popular Vote 50.850.8 47.547.5
States CarriedStates Carried 26+DC26+DC 2424
2008 Electoral Map
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2008 Presidential Election Results
Barack ObamaBarack Obama John McCainJohn McCain
Electoral VoteElectoral Vote 365365 173173
Popular VotePopular Vote 67,066,91567,066,915 58,421,37758,421,377
% Popular Vote% Popular Vote 52.752.7 45.945.9
States CarriedStates Carried 28+DC+NE0228+DC+NE02 2222
Figure 9.2 – Pg. 295
Populations Shifts and
Political Gains and Losses Since 1960
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States are drawn according to their population on the map (based on 2000 census). Each state’s electoral votes = total members in Congress. Although New Jersey is much smaller than Montana in land area, it is much bigger in terms of “electoral geography.” The coloring represents states that have gained (green) or lost (purple) electoral votes since 1960. Blue = no change. Which parts of the country are biggest as far as “electoral geography”?
Reapportionment 2010 Census
311 6 8 2
1
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Reapportionment after 2010 census
The Electoral College: Politics
Prior to 1860, most electors chosen by state legislatures
After 1860, electors chosen by popular vote
All states but Maine and Nebraska award electors “winner takes all”
Election in 2000 came down to Florida’s electoral votes
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2000 Presidential Election2000 Presidential ElectionGeorge BushGeorge Bush Al GoreAl Gore
Electoral VoteElectoral Vote 271271 266266
Popular VotePopular Vote 50,460,11050,460,110 51,003,92651,003,926
% Popular Vote% Popular Vote 47.947.9 48.448.4
States CarriedStates Carried 3030 20 + DC20 + DC
Bush lost the popular vote but won the electoral vote
2008 Presidential Election2008 Presidential Election
Massachusetts is one of the most liberal states. Utah is one of the most conservative
Nebraska and Maine District Plan, not “Winner Take All”
Figure 9.3
How America Votes
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Sedgwick County uses touch screen….
Ch. 9 Scenario 2 What are your thoughts on the
electoral college system of electing our President? Do you like it or dislike it? Why?
If the electoral college were to be reformed, what plan do you think would be the best way to elect the President? Explain it and why it might work.
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The Electoral College: Abolish It?
Over 700 proposals to abolish electoral college introduced in Congress over the years
You vote for electors who pledge to vote for one of the candidates.
Electoral vote system allows states to decide how electors chosen – a federal system
Many voters appear to prefer nationwide direct popular vote
Benjamin Harrison (1888-Cleveland) and George W. Bush (2000-Gore) elected despite losing popular vote
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Harrison
Cleveland
Faithless Electors
Figure 9.4 – pg. 298
The Popular Vote and the Electoral Vote
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In every election between 1888-2000, the candidate winning the plurality of the popular vote won an even larger proportion of the electoral vote. The electoral vote magnifies victory and thus increases the legitimacy of the president-elect.
Support for the Electoral College
Generally, results from electoral vote system magnify popular vote results
Electoral college is a federal election system: Allows small states to have more
weight in process Campaigns carried out via personal
contact versus the large market media Nationwide recounts not needed 40
50 x Florida 2000???
2000 butterfly ballot
Congressional Elections Candidates for president listed at top
of ballot, with other national, state, and local offices below
Voters can vote straight ticket or split ticket 50% split ticket between 15% and 30% of voters choose
president from one party and congressional candidates from the other
Can result in divided government 41
Congressional Elections Democrats basically in power 1954-1994Districts drawn by the party in power and usually benefit dominant party
President’s party generally loses seats in mid-term elections
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Figure 9.5
Presidential Popularity and
Party Seat Loss/Gain
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Presidents tend to lose popularity after electionPresident’s party loses seats in midterms. Presidential parties lose fewer seats if the president retains popularity.2010 – Obama 48% approval accompanied by 60 seat loss in House, most lost in midterm election since 1938. Look at Clinton (1994, 1998) and Bush (2002, 2006)
Campaigns: The Political Context
Most important structural factors in campaign planning: Office sought Whether incumbent or challenger
Non-incumbents more successful in open elections
More populous and/or diverse districts mean more expensive campaigns
Party preference of electorate also important
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Financing Quality of campaign organizations a
function of money However, money alone does not ensure
success “There are four parts to any campaign. The
candidate, the issues of the candidate, the campaign organization, and the money to run the campaign with. Without money, you can forget the other three.” -- former House Speaker Thomas (“Tip”) O’Neill
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Money, money, money! Helps with:
Office space Staff salaries Cell phones Computers Travel expenses Campaign literature Advertising!
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All add up to better quality of the campaign
See Worksheet on Campaign Financing
Page 301-306
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Regulating Campaign Financing
State and federal governments regulate campaign financing
Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) passed in 1971 Amendments in 1972 created Federal
Election Commission (FEC) Limits on political action committee
(PAC) contributions – both soft and hard money
After court challenges, 1974 FECA governed elections for about 30 years
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Regulating Campaign Financing
Increases in campaign contributions and spending led to Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) in 2002 Limits on contributions by individuals Banned soft money contributions to political
parties Allowed 527 committees to spend unlimited
amounts for media, with some limits 2007 Supreme Court ruling struck down ban
on issue ads before elections New committees formed – 501(c)4 social welfare
organizations 2010 Supreme Court ruling overturned ban on
corporate contributions to candidates Citizens United vs. FEC
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Public Financing of Presidential Campaigns
Both FECA and BCRA provided for public financing for presidential campaigns Subject to spending limits
Until 1996, all eligible candidates used public funds for primary elections
Since 1996, more and more candidates refusing public funds for primaries
Funding for general election follows different rules; most candidates used until 2004
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Private Financing of Congressional Campaigns Candidates for national office
raised over $3 billion during the 2007-2008 primary and general elections Obama raised almost $750 million McCain raised almost $370 million Congressional candidates raised
almost $1.4 billionx
Future Trends in Campaign Finance
Public funding faces uncertain future
Major candidates can raise more money on their own Contribution bundlers Internet fundraising
BCRA limited soft money but not amounts raised for presidential campaigns
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Strategies and Tactics Strategies are broad approaches to
campaigns Party-centered strategies – not good in
primaries. Best for less knowledgable voters
Issue-oriented strategies Candidate-oriented strategies
Strategies must take into account political context
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Making the News
News coverage valuable because it’s free and seems objective to the public Incumbents have advantage
News coverage frequently limited to “sound bites”
Horse-race metaphors limit attention to issues: bandwagons, losing ground, the front-runner, and the likely loser
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Advertising the Candidate
Main objective for campaigns ads: name recognition Voters may not recall name but
recognize on a list, such as a ballot Must also point out virtues of
candidate Campaign ads also sometimes attack
opponent or play on emotions Majority of ads use electronic media
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Advertising the Candidate
Recent years’ ads tend to mention personal characteristics rather than policy preferences
Negative ads can be either attack ads or contrast ads (attack, yet promote self)
Media sometimes report controversial ads as news
Attack/negative ads help the challenger; incumbents better being positive
56http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YAsxr1snhA Mike Pompeo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ij3kTm1PYKQ Raj Goyle
Using the Internet Use started in 1992 with e-mail to
supporters Democrats pioneered Internet usage
in election campaigns, both to raise funds and mobilize supporters Also use social networking sites,
blogs, and YouTube Internet inexpensive way to quickly
contact supporters, but TV still best way to reach average voters
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Party Identification Over half of electorate decides
candidate before party conventions Early decisions generally vote based
on party identification Each candidate in 2008 received 90% of
vote of self-described partisans Independents generally favored Obama
Republicans have won more elections due to lack of Democratic voter turnout and other short-term factors
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Figure 9.6
Effect of Party Identification on the Vote, 2008
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Issues and Policies Candidates exploit issues that
seem to be important to voters Incumbent’s record versus
problems pointed out by challenger Even with no incumbent, that
party’s candidate may be tied to outgoing president
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Hopes Fulfilled
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First black candidate to be elected President. Won with 53% of popular vote and 68% of electoral vote.
Hopes Dashed
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Campaign history was made as Sarah Palin became first woman nominated to be Republican Vice President.
Candidates’ Attributes Attributes important because
most voters lack information about candidates’ past performance and policy stands
Stereotypical thinking may play into some voters’ decisions
Catholic, black, Jewish, Mormon
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Evaluating the Voting Choice
Party identification and candidate attributes not basis for voting according to democratic theory *Citizens should vote based on past
performance and proposed policies Research shows that issues are
least important to voters.
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Campaign Effects While campaign may not cause change in
party identification, can influence enough votes to change outcome of election
Television ads main method for transmitting candidates’ message Obama outspent McCain 4 to 1 on ads
Presidential campaign in 2008 most expensive ever No major candidate took federal matching
funds in primary; only McCain in general election
Battleground/Border states important65
The Presidential Debates
First televised debate in 1960 between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon
In 1976, televised debates began airing regularly
Presidential and vice-presidential debates in 2008 election led to rise in support for Obama in election polls
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Campaigns, Elections, and Parties
Party organizations not central to elections in America
Both parties follow majoritarian model by formulating different party platforms and pursuing announced policies when in office Weak connection between party platform
and voters during campaigns and elections
Party platforms do not play major role in elections, especially those for House and Senate seats
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Parties and the Pluralist Model
The way parties operate in America more like pluralist model Function as two giant interest groups
Parties prefer candidates who support party platform However, candidates operate as
entrepreneurs, and may vote against party leadership
Stronger parties might be able to better coordinate government policies after elections
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