CHAPTER III DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION …shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/35275/14/14...CHAPTER III DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORETICAL IMPLICATIONS 3.1. Demographic Transition:

CHAPTER III

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORETICAL

IMPLICATIONS

3.1. Demographic Transition: Stages

3.2. Population Growth in India and Kerala

3.3. Demographic Transition in Kerala

3.4. Demographic Profile of Kerala

3.5. Demographic Transition and Decadal Growth Rat e of

Population

3.6. Kerala’s Changing Age Structure

3.7. Demographic Shift and Population Ageing

3.8. Demographic Transition and Elderly in Kerala

3.9. Dependency Ratios

3.10. Social Security for Elderly

Chapter IChapter IChapter IChapter IIIIIIIII---- Demographic Transition Theoretical Implications Demographic Transition Theoretical Implications Demographic Transition Theoretical Implications Demographic Transition Theoretical Implications

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SOCIO ECONOMIC IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN KERALA ON ELDERLY WOMEN

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORETICAL

IMPLICATIONS

There are a number of distinct stages in demographic growth

through which population passes is collectively known as the

population cycle or the theory of demographic transition.

The demographic transition is the relationship between fertility

and mortality, i.e., between the birth rates and death rates. The

theory pinpoints the changes in these rates which occur as a

consequence of economic development (Sinha, 2000). Demographic

transition is the process of shift from high birth rates and high death

rates to low birth rates and low death rates.

According to E.G. Dolan, “Demographic transition refers to a

population cycle that begins with a fall in the death rate, continues

with a phase of rapid population growth and concludes with a

decline in the birth rate”. (Cherunilam, Francis, 1987).

3.1. Demographic Transition: Stages

The theory of demographic transition is based on the actual

population trends of advanced countries of the world. This theory

states that every country passes through different stages of

population development. According to C.P. Blacker, they are:(i) the

high stationary phase marked by high fertility and mortality rates;

(ii) the early expanding phase marked by high fertility and high but

declining mortality; (iii) the late expanding phase with declining

fertility but with mortality declining more rapidly;(iv) the low stationary

phase with low fertility balanced by equally low mortality; and (v) the


54


declining phase with low mortality, lower fertility and an excess of

deaths over births.

These stages are explained in the Fig.3.1. In the figure, the

time for different stages is taken on the horizontal axis and annual

birth and death rates on the vertical axis.

Figure 3.1 Stages of Demographic Transition

Source: Bhatt (2005): “Demography”, Vrinda Publications Private

Limited, New Delhi ,p126.

First Stage :-In this stage the country is backward and is

characterized by high birth and death rates with the result that the

growth rate of population is low. People mostly live in rural areas

and their main occupation is agriculture which is in a state of


55


backwardness. There are a few simple, light and small consumer

goods industries. The tertiary sector consisting of transport,

commerce, banking and insurance is underdeveloped. All these

factors are responsible for low incomes and poverty of the masses.

Large family is regarded as a necessity to augment the low family

income. Children are an asset to the society and parents. The

existence of the joint family system provides employment to all

children in keeping with their ages. More children in a family are also

regarded as an insurance against old age by the parents. People

being illiterate, ignorant, superstitious and fatalists are averse to any

method of birth control. Children are regarded as God-given and

pre-ordained. All these economic and social factors are responsible

for a high birth rate in the country. Along with birth rate the death

rate is also high due to non-nutritional food with a caloric value, lack

of medical facilities and the lack of any sense of cleanliness. As a

result, they are disease-ridden and the absence of proper medical

and the next among women of child-bearing age. Thus the birth

rates and death rates remain approximately equal over time so that

a static equilibrium with zero population growth prevails. According

to Blacker, this stage continued in Western Europe approximately up

to 1840 and in India and China till 1900.

Second Stage:- In the second stage, the economy enters the phase

of economic growth. Agricultural and industrial productivity

increases, and means of transports develop. There is greater

mobility of labour. Education expands. Income increases. People get

more and better quality food products. Medical and health facilities

are expanded. Modern drugs are used by the people. All these


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factors bring down the death rate. But the birth rate is almost stable.

People do not have any inclination to reduce the birth of children

because with economic growth employment opportunities increase

and children are able to add more to the family income. With

improvements in the standards of living and he dietary habits of the

people, the life expectancy also increases. People do not make any

effort to control the size of family because of the presence of

religious dogmas and social taboos towards family planning. Of all

the factors in economic growth it is difficult to break with the past

social institutions, customs and beliefs. As a result of these factors,

the birth rate remains at the previous high level. With the decline in

the death rate and no change in the birth rate, population increases

at a rapid rate. This leads to Population Explosion.

Third Stage:- In this stage, birth rate starts declining accompanied

by death rates declining rapidly. With better medical facilities, the

survival rate of children increases. People are not willing to support

large families. The country is burdened with the growing population.

People adopt the use of contraceptives so as to limit families. Birth

rates decline a initially in urban areas. With death rates declining

rapidly, the population grows a diminishing rate. This is the “Late

Expanding” stage.

Fourth Stage:- In this stage, the fertility rate declines and tends to

equal the death rate so that the growth rate of population is

stationary. As growth gains momentum and people’s level of income

increases, their standard of living rises. The leading growth sectors

expand and lead to an expansion in output in other sectors through


57


technical transformations. Education expands and permeates the

entire society. People discard old customs, dogmas and beliefs,

develop individualistic spirit and break with the joint family. Men and

women prefer to marry late. People rapidly adopt family planning

devices. They prefer to go in for a baby car rather than a baby.

Moreover, increases specialization following rising income levels

and the consequent social and economic mobility make it costly and

inconvenient to rear a large number of children. All this tends to

reduce the birth at further which along with an already low death rate

brings a decline in the growth rate of population. The advanced

countries of the world are passing through this “Lower Stationary”

(LS) stage of population development, as shown in Fig (A) and CD

in Fig (B). Population growth is curtailed and there is zero population

growth.

Fifth Stage:- In this stage, death rates exceed birth rates and the

population growth declines. This is shown as D in Fig. (A)and the

portion DP in Fig.(B). A continuing decline in birth rates when it is

not possible to lower death rates further in the advanced countries

leads to a “declining” stage of population. The existence of this stage

in any developed country is a matter of speculation.

The theory of demographic transition is the most acceptable

theory of population growth. It does not lay emphasis on food supply

like the Malthusian theory, nor does it develop a pessimistic outlook

towards population growth. It is also superior to the optimum theory

which lays an exclusive emphasis on the increase in per capita

income for the growth of population and neglects the other factors

which influence it. The demographic transition theory is superior to


58


all the theories of population because it is based on the actual

population growth trends of the developed countries of Europe.

Almost all the European countries have passed through the first

three stages of this theory and are now in the fourth stage

(Zachariah and Rajan, 1997).

The demographic transition implies the shift of population

growth from the stage of high birth and death rates to a stage of low

birth and death rates. The theory of demographic transition dealing

with the relationship between birth and death rates and the result of

growth rates of population at different stages of development (Asha

Bhende, 2006). These stages are described in detail as follows:

Stage 1: High Birth and Death Rates

In the first stage, both birth and death rules are high. The

population remains more or less stable. Even if there is some

increase in the population because birth rate is somewhat higher

than death rate, it does not pose any severe problem. A large

number of people live on inadequate and unbalanced diet; their

housing conditions are appalling and, in the absence of

opportunities for education, their outlook towards life becomes

unscientific and irrational. Under these circumstance, when medical

facilities are limited, the mortality rate is bound to be high. Lack of

education, superstition and such other social evils result in high birth

rates. In the first stage of demographic transition high birth rate is

followed by an equally high death rate, and thus population remains

stable over a long period.


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Stage II: Falling Death and High Birth Rates

The second stage of demographic transition is characterized

by rapid growth of population. With the beginning of the process of

development, living standards of people improve, education

expends, medical and health facility increase and governments

make special efforts to check small pox, malaria, cholera, plague

etc. These developments generally bring down the death rates. But

as long as society remains primarily agrarian and education

available only to a narrow section of the society, attitude of people

towards the size of family does not change radically and the birth

rate remains high. In this situation, population increases at an

alarming rate.

Stage III: Low Birth Rate and Low Death Rate

In the third stage of demographic transition, birth rate declines

significantly and thus rate of population growth remains low. A

country can hope to overcome the problem of population explosion if

the process of industrialization accompanied by urbanization is fast

and education becomes widespread. Only in this situation birth rate

shows a tendency to fall. Life in a city is not the same as in a village.

Industrialization results in overcrowding in cities and housing

problem compels people to revise their attitudes towards size of

family. Their experiences of the urban life help them in recognizing

the merits of a small family. When the process of economic

development gets accelerated, women seek all kinds of employment

in order to supplement family earnings. For working women,

upbringing of children is not an easy task. Furthermore, in industrial

societies there are very few employment opportunities for children.

In most cases, some technical training is also necessary along with


60


education. Thus both social and economic factors prevent a large

number of people from having many children, and in course of time,

the birth rate declines from above 40 per thousand to about 20 per

thousands. Once the critical phase of population explosion is over, in

the third stage, the birth rate and death rate become stable at low

level resulting in a very slow rising population.

The process of demographic transition in the course of

economic development, as experienced by today’s industrialized

countries, may be briefly explained as follows: “All nations in the

modern era, which have moves from a traditional, agrarian-based

economic system to a largely industrial, urbanized base, have also

moved from a condition of high mortality and fertility to low mortality

and fertility (Stolnitz, 1964).

3.2. Population Growth in India and Kerala

The population of India as of 1st March 2001 stood at 1027

millions. The corresponding figure for Kerala was 32 millions. Figure

3.2 outlines the population growth for Kerala and India over the last

100 years. Though India had a negative growth rate during the

period 1911-21, the growth rates in Kerala remained positive. Kerala

registered a growth rate of above 2 per cent during 1941-71,

whereas the same pattern was true fact India between 1961-

91.Until 1971, Kerala’s growth rate was always higher than India’s

and India only overtook Kerala in terms of the growth rate during

1971-81(Census of India, Various Years).

Over the last century, Kerala’s population doubled five times

(6 million in 1901 to 32 million in 2001) whereas India’s population

grew slightly more than three times (238 million in 1901 to 1027


61


million in 2001)This is shown in figure 3.2 and Table 3.1. Kerala has

also registered the lowest growth rate during 1991-2001 among the

states and union territories in India.

Figure 3.2

Population Growth Rates for Kerala and India, 1901- 2001

Source : Census of India, Various issues

Age structure changes are the result of both mortality and

fertility transition (George, 2008). Reliable data on mortality and

fertility trends of Kerala are available only since the introduction of

the Sample Registration System (SRS) from the late 1960s.

According to the available estimates, the Crude Death Rate (CDR)

in Kerala hovered around six during the last 10 years as shown in

Figure 3.2. The life expectancy at birth in Kerala is 68 years for

males and 74 years for females with a gender gap of six years in

favour of females.


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Table 3.1

Population Size and Decadal Growth Rate in India an d Kerala, 1961-2011

Year

Population(Million) Decadal Growth Rate (%)

India Kerala India Kerala

1961 439.23 16.90 21.64 24.76

1971 548.16 21.35 24.80 26.69

1981 683.33 25.45 24.66 19.24

1991 843.39 29.09 23.86 14.32

2001 1027.02 31.84 21.34 9.42

2011 1210.20 33.39 17.64 4.90

Source: Census of India, Various Issues.

The growth rate of population during the past decade 2001-

2011 was a mere 48 per cent, the lowest rate experienced since the

formation of the state of Kerala. The growth rate during 2001-2011 in

Kerala was the lowest in India.

Figure 3.3

Crude Death Rates for Kerala and India, 1971-2011

Source: Sample Registration System, Various issues


Trends in Total Fertility Rate Kerala and India

Source: Bhat and Rajan (1990) and Sample Registration System, Various issues

The fertility has also shown a significant declining trend in

Kerala, particularly since the 1970s. Figure 3.3 presents the trend in

total fertility rate (TFR) in Kerala and Indi

decadal figures are drawn from census and other data are from

Sample Registration System (SRS). According to the estimates the

TFR declined from 5.8 to 1.7 by 1991 and then stabilized at that

point. However, at all India level

replacement level of 2 children per women.

As fertility declined faster in Kerala, the fertility gap between

India and Kerala has widened till the early 1990s. But the gap is

solely narrowing down for the last one deca


SOCIO ECONOMIC IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN KERALA ON

Figure 3.4

Trends in Total Fertility Rate Kerala and India

Source: Bhat and Rajan (1990) and Sample Registration System,



total fertility rate (TFR) in Kerala and India since 1951. The first three




point. However, at all India level the TFR is still far higher than the

replacement level of 2 children per women.



solely narrowing down for the last one decade. This is because as

Demographic Transition Theoretical Implications Demographic Transition Theoretical Implications Demographic Transition Theoretical Implications Demographic Transition Theoretical Implications

63

Source: Bhat and Rajan (1990) and Sample Registration System,



a since 1951. The first three




the TFR is still far higher than the



de. This is because as


64


Kerala has already reached a very low fertility there is no scope for

further decline (George, 2008).

Table 3.2

Sex Ratio in India and Kerala, 1951-2011

Year Sex Ratio

India Kerala

1951 946 1028

1961 941 1022

1971 930 1016

1981 934 1032

1991 927 1036

2001 933 1058

2011 940 1084

Source: Census of India, Various Years

Kerala has a unique position with regard to sex ratio. In all

the censuses females outnumbered males in Kerala. Kerala is the

only state in India in which the excess of female has been growing

during the entire 20th century. In 2011 there is 84 excess females for

1000 males.

Density of Population

Kerala is one among the top, with 859 per sq.km in 2011 in

matter of density of population. Table 3.3 reveals the density of

population in India and Kerala.


Density of Population India and Kerala

Year

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

2011

Source: Census of


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1951 1961



Table 3.3


Density of Population

India Kerala

117 349

142 435

177 549

216 655

267 749

324 819

382 859

Source: Census of India

Figure 3.5


Source: Census of India

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011


65

Kerala

India

Kerala


66


Among the major states in India, Kerala had the highest

density of population till 1981, but in 1991 West Bengal took the

lead. The density of population in Kerala is higher than that of all

India level in 2011.

3.3. Demographic Transition in Kerala

Kerala State had an impressive demographic transition well

recognized all over the world. The state has pioneered fertility

transition in the developing world and in the final stage of

demographic transition. The mortality transition in the state can be

traced to the beginning of the 20th century. The onset of fertility

transition dates back to the 1960s when it was considered

impossible to attain any significant reduction in fertility in regions

with poor living standards. At the time of fertility transition, Kerala

had a very adverse economic profile with high poverty ratios, low per

capita incomes and high under nutrition. Demographic transition in

Kerala is hailed as a success story as it occurred under condition of

poor economic development (Zachariah, 2001). The current

demographic indicators of Kerala suggest that the state is much

ahead of the rest of the states in India by at least about 25 years.

The state had also achieved all Millennium Development Goals

(MDG) at least a decade earlier than it was declared.

3.4. Demographic Profile of Kerala

The various demographic features of Kerala and India over

the last 100 years are in Table 3.4.


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Table 3.4

Demographic Profile of Kerala, 1901-2001

Years Population Growth Rate

Sex Ratio(Female/Male)

1000

Population Density Net

Migration Rate

India Kerala India Kerala India Kerala

1901 6,396,262 - .81 972 1,004 77 165 -

1911 7,147,673 0.56 .11 964 1,008 82 184 0.03

1921 7,802,127 -0.03 0.88 955 1,011 81 201 0.12

1931 9,507,050 1.04 1.98 950 1,022 90 245 0.12

1941 11,031,541 1.33 1.49 945 1,027 103 284 -0.01

1951 13,549,118 1.25 2.06 946 1,028 117 349 -0.11

1961 16,903,715 1.96 2.21 941 1,022 142 435 -0.20

1971 21,347,375 2.22 2.33 930 1,016 177 549 -0.16

1981 25,453,680 2.20 1.76 934 1,032 216 655 -0.22

1991 29,098,518 2.14 1.34 927 1,036 267 749 -0.31

2001 31,838,619 1.93 0.91 933 1,058 324 819 -0.27

2011 1,546,303 17.64 4.90 940 1084 382 859 -0.29

Source: Compiled from Various Censuses


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3.5. Demographic Transition and Decadal Growth Rate of

Population

Table 3.5 presents the Decadal Growth Rates of population in

Kerala.

Table 3.5

Decadal Growth Rate of Population in Kerala

Census

Year

Population

(in Lakhs)

Decadal Growth Rate (%)

1901 63.90 -

1911 71.50 11.75

1921 78.00 9.16

1931 95.10 21.85

1941 110.30 16.04

1951 135.50 22.82

1961 169.00 24.76

1971 213.50 26.69

1981 254.50 19.24

1991 290.90 14.32

2001 318.40 9.42

2011 333.90 4.90

Source: Census of India.



Source: Compiled from various census of India

It is clear from both Table 3.5 and Figure 3.6 that after

rate of growth of population is declining faster in Kerala.


An important effect of demographic transition in the state is

the change in the age structure of population. There has been a shift

in the age structur

adults. The bulge in the working age group population is clearly

evident in recent years. As a result of early demographic transition,

Kerala is experiencing a fast change in the age structure of

population (Census of India).

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1901 1911 1921



Figure 3.6


Source: Compiled from various census of India

It is clear from both Table 3.5 and Figure 3.6 that after

rate of growth of population is declining faster in Kerala.




in the age structure of the population in the state from young to




ensus of India).

1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Decadal GrowthRate

(%)


69

It is clear from both Table 3.5 and Figure 3.6 that after 1971,



e of the population in the state from young to




2011

Decadal GrowthRate


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Table 3.6

Trends and Projections of Population in Kerala, 60 +: Actual and Projected 1961- 2026

Year Population Aged 60 + (in Million)

Male Female Total

1961 0.4 0.5 0.9

1971 0.6 0.7 1.3

1981 0.9 1.0 1.9

1986 1.0 1.2 2.2

1991 1.1 1.5 2.6

1996 1.5 1.7 3.5

2001 1.5 2.0 3.5

2006 1.7 2.2 4.0

2011 2.0 2.6 4.6

2016 2.6 3.1 5.7

2021 3.2 3.7 6.9

2026 3.9 4.4 8.3

Source: Census of India and Population Projection for Kerala (2001):

Bhatt and Rajan CDS Triruvananthapuram.

The table shows that the population of elderly has increased

to 4.6 million in 2011 and projected to 8.3 million in 2026. It is also

visible that elderly female population is increased from 0.5 million in

1961 to 2.6 million in 1011 and is projected to 4.4 million in 2026.

Percentage of elderly male increased from 0.4 million in1961 to 2.0

million in 2011 and projected to 3.9 million in 2026.


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Table 3.7

Demographic Scenario of Kerala Past, Present and Fu ture (In Million)

Year Below 15 15 - 29 30 - 44 45 - 59 60 +

1961 7.205 4.158 2.837 1.714 .986

1971 8.595 5.715 3.481 2.228 1.328

1981 8.901 7.716 4.116 2.809 1.909

1991 8.617 8.793 5.645 3.374 2.61

2001 7.243 8.761 6.940 4.498 3.512

2011 6.862 8.251 8.149 6.082 4.62

2021 6.296 7.514 8.558 7.308 6.93

2031 5.567 7.260 7.706 8.081 7.876

2041 5.147 6.639 7.318 7.603 9.778

2051 4.671 6.018 6.817 6.948 10.781

Source: Zachariah, K.C (2008): “A Century of Developments in

Kerala Demography”, in B.A Prakash and V.R Prabhakaran (Ed),

Kerala’s Development Issues in the New Millennium, Serials

Publications, New Delhi, pp 44-46.

In 1961 Kerala had an elderly population of just .986 million.

By 2011 their number increased to 4.120 million. By 2051 their

number will increase to around 10 million. The worst affected group

is the children below age of 15. From 8.617 million in 1991 declined

to 6.862 million in 2011 and it would decline consistently to about

4.671 million in 2051 (Kerala Development Report, 2008).

Table 3.8 presents the age distribution of population by

broad age groups for major states in India for the year 1961 and

2001. It can be observed that there has been a drastic change in the

age structure of population in ages 0-14, 15-59 and 60 and above

among Indian states over the last four-decades. There are


72


significant inter- state variations in age structure of population in line

with the stage of demographic transition. For instance, states like

Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Punjab and Tamil Nadu recoded a

decline of more than 10 percentage points among children of 0-14

years. On the other hand, states such as Bihar, Madhya Pradesh

and Rajasthan have registered an increase of only around three

percentage points.

Table 3.8

Percentage Distribution of Population by Broad Age Groups for Major States, 1961 and 2001

State

Age Grou p

0-14 15-24 25-59 60+

1961 2001 1961 2001 1961 2001 1961 2001

Andhra Pradesh 39.54 32.07 16.67 19.08 37.56 41.24 6.23 7.61

Bihar 42.32 41.54 15.70 16.55 36.37 35.46 5.62 6.45

Gujarat 42.89 32.84 17.34 19.80 34.83 40.45 4.94 6.91

Haryana - 35.99 - 20.00 - 36.49 - 7.52

Karnataka 42.16 31.91 16.51 19.45 35.60 40.95 5.73 7.69

Kerala 42.64 26.08 16.96 18.76 34.57 44.68 5.84 10.48

Madhya Pradesh 40.82 38.21 16.54 17.86 37.48 36.80 5.16 7.14

Maharastra 40.67 32.14 16.97 19.04 37.10 40.08 5.27 8.74

Orissa 39.10 33.23 16.55 18.29 38.68 40.21 5.67 8.27

Punjab 43.57 31.39 17.05 20.17 32.82 39.40 6.56 9.03

Rajastan 42.66 40.10 16.72 18.21 35.47 34.91 5.14 6.78

Tamil Nadu 37.61 26.96 17.29 19.34 39.50 44.81 5.60 8.89

Uttar Pradesh 40.50 40.83 16.32 17.84 36.90 34.26 6.29 7.07

West Bengal 40.93 33.28 17.15 18.36 36.91 41.24 5.01 7.12

Source: Estimated from Various Census Reports


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In prime working ages of 25-29 years, a phenomenal increase

of 10 percentage points registered for Kerala during the last four

decades. In fact, among the major states under investigation, Kerala

is leading with the highest proportion of working age population

(about 45 percent).

The growth rate of population by broad age groups among

Indian states is presented in Table 3.9.

Table 3.9

Growth Rate of Population by Age Groups in Major St ates in India, 1961-71 and 1991-2001

States

Age Group

0-14 15-24 25-59 60+

1961 2001 1961 2001 1961 2001 1961 2001

Andhra Pradesh

2.13 0.21 1.70 1.80 1.70 1.96 2.11 2.49

Bihar 2.00 2.56 1.87 2.50 1.81 2.37 2.44 2.69

Gujarat 2.62 1.22 2.83 2.12 2.31 2.70 3.20 2.83

Haryana - 1.60 - 2.78 - 3.28 - 2.23

Karnataka 2.24 0.39 2.57 1.90 1.79 2.47 2.79 2.57

Kerala 1.76 -0.41 4.12 -0.27 1.95 1.96 2.97 2.62

Madhya Pradesh

3.21 1.83 1.65 2.12 1.94 2.29 3.67 2.76

Maharastra 2.59 1.01 2.22 2.46 2.21 2.37 3.25 4.28

Orissa 3.04 0.76 1.33 1.41 1.66 2.02 2.85 2.87

Punjab - 0.80 - 1.95 - 2.39 - 3.21

Rajastan 2.81 2.28 2.12 2.70 2.09 2.47 3.16 3.20

Tamil Nadu 2.06 -0.29 2.02 0.98 1.93 1.69 2.26 2.80

Uttar Pradesh 2.14 2.36 1.31 2.43 1.52 2.13 2.54 2.54

West Bengal 2.85 0.67 2.22 1.53 1.79 2.38 2.95 3.26

Source: Estimated from Various Census Reports


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It can be seen that those in younger ages of 0-14, Kerala had

the lowest growth rate of 1.76 percent in 1961-71 and reached a

negative growth rate during the last two decades. On the other hand,

Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have recorded an increase in the growth

rate of population during the same period. Similarly, Kerala had also

recorded a significant decline in the growth of population among

ages 15-24 years compared to the rest of the states.

Unlike the age groups 0-14 and 15-24, which witnessed

negative growth rates, in the prime working age groups, growth rate

reveals an opposite trend in Kerala. For instance, the growth rate of

prime working age groups (25-59) worked out to be 2.0 percent

during 1961-71, reached a peak of 2.6 in 1981-91 and reached the

same level of 2.0 in 1991-2001. India’s general population is

growing at 2 per cent annum today whereas Kerala’s working age

groups follow similar pattern of growth.


75


Table 3.10 Demographic Profile of Elderly: Actual and Project ed,1961-2061

Year Number of

Aged(millions)

Percentage

Total

Growth Rate

(Per Cent)

60+ 70+ 80+ 60+ 70+ 80+ 60+ 70+ 80+

1961 0.99 0.36 0.09 5.1 1.9 0.4 - - -

1971 1.33 0.50 0.13 6.2 2.3 0.6 3.47 3.66 4.71

1981 1.91 0.71 0.19 7.5 2.8 0.7 4.38 4.35 4.88

1991 2.57 1.00 0.29 8.9 3.4 1.0 3.48 4.06 5.59

2001 3.33 1.40 0.39 10.5 4.4 1.2 2.94 3.99 3.45

2011 4.20 1.94 0.54 12.2 5.6 1.6 2.61 3.86 3.85

2021 5.75 2.46 0.76 16.0 6.8 2.1 3.69 2.68 4.07

2031 7.78 3.52 1.01 21.3 9.7 2.7 3.53 4.31 3.29

2041 9.88 4.86 1.48 27.8 13.7 4.2 2.70 3.81 4.65

2051 11.48 6.22 2.11 34.4 18.6 6.3 1.62 2.80 4.26

2061 11.95 7.18 2.76 39.6 23.8 9.1 0.41 1.54 3.08

Source: Compiled from Indian censuses and population projections, Rajan (2001)

The number of the oldest old (aged 80 and above) in Kerala

was just 290000 in 1991. It is expected to increase to 8 lakh in 2021

and further to 27 lakh by 2061.The growth rates among the oldest old

is higher than the young old and old-old in Kerala over the last 40

years and it is expected to slow down in the coming decades. Kerala

has the highest female expectation of life at birth and the gender gap

was around 6 years in 2000. At age, a Malayali woman is expected to


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live 21 years, as against 19 years in the case of their male counter

parts.

The trend in population growth rate by broad age groups in

Kerala is presented in Figure 3.7.

Figure 3.7

Growth Rate of Population by Different Age Groups, Kerala 1961-2001

Source: Census of India, various years

Over a period of last four decades, the gap between growth

rates of children and prime working age groups widened significantly

indicating the windows of opportunities in Kerala. The gap also

indicates another dimension of lowering of dependency in Kerala in

which parents have an opportunity to diversify their income from

investment on children to more productive areas.


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To understand the growth of working population in the state in

recent years, growth rate of population by five year age group

between 1991 and 2001 is presented in Figure 3.8.

Figure 3.8

Age Specific Growth Rate for Kerala, 1991-2001

Source: Census of India, various years

The figure also confirms rapid growth of working age group

population in the state. On contrary, currently a negative growth rate

of population is recorded till age 25. The boom in the working age

group will be a short term phenomenon and is expected to vanish

within the next two to three decades.

As a whole, the demographic transition in Kerala has led to

significant changes in the age structure of the population particularly

since 1980s. The proportion of population as well as the growth rate

Age Groups


78


in the prime working age group 25-59 is significant by higher in

Kerala leading to a ‘window of opportunity’ for the state as far as

economic growth is concerned (United Nations).

3.7. Demographic Shift and Population Ageing

A population’s age composition can only change through the

fundamental demographic processes of birth, death and migration.

Generally changes in the number of births play the most important

role in a country’s overall age structure. Decreasing fertility along

with lengthening life expectancy has reshaped age structure of the

population in most regions by shifting relative weight from the

younger to older groups (Ghazy Mujahid, 2000). Following rapid

fertility declines and sustained improvements in the life expectancy

during the second half of the twentieth century, most developed

countries faced with the problem of population ageing. The world’s

population is not only growing larger, it is also becoming older. The

proportion of population aged above sixty (60) is increasing at a

faster rate than any other age groups. In developed countries the

proportion of older people already exceeds that of children. In

developing countries, the growth of the older population is occurring

more rapidly due to the faster pace of fertility decline that has

resulted from the success of reproduction health and family planning

programmes.

The sources of population ageing lie in two demographic

phenomena; rising life expectancy and declining fertility. An increase

in longevity rises the average age of the population by rising the

number of years that each person is old relative to numbers of years


79


in which he is young. A decline in fertility increases the average of

the population by changing the balance of people born recently (the

young) to people born further in the past (the old). Of these two

forces, it is declining fertility that is the dominant contributor to

population ageing in the world today.

Table 3.11 and Figure 3.9 shows the trend of population

ageing in Kerala.

Table 3.11

Growth of Elderly in Kerala (1961-2011)

Year Population of 60 + (in Million)

1961 0.9

1971 1.3

1981 1.9

1991 2.6

2001 3.4

2011 4.6

Source: Estimated from various Census Reports.

The table shows that the total population of elderly has

increased from 0.9 million in 1961 to 4.6 million in 2011.


80


Figure 3.9

Growth of Elderly in Kerala (1961-2011)

Source: Estimated from various Census Reports.

3.8. Demographic Transition and Elderly in Kerala

The ageing scenario of Kerala is unique among the states of

India. Census data reveal that among the Indian states, Kerala has

the largest proportion of elderly population and the growth rate

among the aged is increasing higher and higher. The twenty-first

century is often called the ‘age of ageing’. Therefore one of the

many challenges facing Kerala is its growing elderly population. It is

growing much faster than the overall population itself. With the

possibility of declining birth rate and fewer children in families, there

will be lesser and lesser people taking care of the elderly as the

decades roll by. Traditional life guards of family care are dwindling

due to migration, dual career and growing consumerism. One of the

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Populatio

n of 60 +

(in Million)


81


greatest challenges of Kerala in 21st century would be in managing

the ever increasing number of elderly population who are

progressively getting older. All these make the well-being of the

elderly, a growing challenge to the state. A significant aspect of this

challenge comprises the socio-economic and psychological status of

the aged. Caring the elderly people will therefore emerge as a new

challenge in the area of social security and welfare in the coming

decades (Kannan, 2006).

The elderly suffer from a host of physical and psychological

ailments. The major diseases of the elderly include hypertension,

cardio vascular disorders, renal problems, diabetes, arthritis etc.

According to the National Sample Survey, the proportion of the

elderly who reported good health declined from 70 per cent among

persons in the age group of 60 years and above to 65 per cent

among persons of 80 years of age and above. In general, the poor

among the elderly seldom receive medical treatment and

hospitalization except in very grave situations.

The majority of the elderly tend to work even after the age of

retirement due to inadequate social security and financial resources.

However, the work participation ratio of the elderly tends to decline

with advancement in age. Even in the age group of 80 and above

the elderly participated in remunerative work due to lack of adequate

old-age social security, both emotional and material. Widows, whose

numbers are far greater than widowers, are the most affected due to

poverty, illiteracy and lack of property rights and social support.

(Sreerupa, 2006)


82


Given the advanced stage in Kerala’s demographic transition,

the share of the aged in the population will continue to increase

through the next couple of decades. In Kerala, as in other parts of

the country, families have customarily supported elderly persons.

With Kerala having undergone the demographic transition, however

the number of care givers in families has been on the decline.

Reduction in family size, national and international job-seeking flows

out- migration and a high work participation rate of women, have

contributed to an alternation of resources for the care of the elderly.

At the same time, the increasing presence of older persons in the

state is making people of all ages more aware that we live in a

diverse and multi generational society. It is no longer possible to

ignore ageing, regardless of whether one views it positively or

negatively.

Even when families can support the older generation, they

essentially have difficulty in doing so because people above sixty

years today, live much longer than those of former generations and

require care and medical treatment for many more years. Many

older persons in Kerala who have worked in the formal sector and

receive in pension or have participated in other income security

schemes will be to able economically support themselves in varying

degrees during their post retirement years. However most of them

are not covered by any such schemes and earn their livelihood in

the informal sector by working even at the age of 80 years. The

majority of them are women, they have not been able, for one

reason or other to accumulate sufficient savings to ensure their well

being on old age. It is vital that the social safety net should be

extended to cover all elderly persons.


83


3.9. Dependency Ratios

Dependency Ratios refers to the ratio of the population below 14

years of and above 60 years of age to the population in working

ages(15-59). The following ratios are presented for Kerala for the

periods 1961 to 2061.

a) Young Dependency Ratio:

The number of persons aged 0-14 to per 100 persons of

intermediate age (working age 15-59).

b) Aged Dependency Ratio:

The number of persons aged 60 years and above per 100

persons of working age (15-59)

c) Total Dependency Ratio:

The number of persons in the non-working age group (0-14

and 60+) to per 100 persons of working age (15-59).

d) Index of Ageing:

The proposition of the population aged sixty and above to the

population aged 0-14. It is intended to measure the structure of

dependency.

e) Index of Children

The population of aged 0-14 per 100 to population aged 60

years and above

f) Index of Parents to Children

The population aged 60-74 per 100 to population aged 40-44


84


g) Index of Oldest to Young Old

The population aged 80 years above per 100 to population aged

60-64.

Demographic Transition and consequent changes in age

structure of population has results in changes in the dependency

ratios too. This is presented in Table 3.12.

Table 3.12

Dependency Ratios, Ageing Index and Familial Depend ency Ratio for Kerala, 1961-2061.

Year

Dependency Ratio Index of Ageing Ratio

Familiar Dependency

Young Old Total 0-14/60+

60-74/60+

80+/60-64

1961 82.7 11.3 94.0 13.7 731 105 23

1981 61.5 13.2 74.7 21.6 466 134 27

2001 41.1 16.5 57.6 40.1 250 130 38

2011 32.8 18.4 51.2 56.1 178 123 42

2021 26.6 24.0 50.6 90.4 111 148 44

2031 22.8 33.3 56.1 146.2 68 194 45

2041 20.3 46.3 66.6 228.2 44 255 55

2051 18.1 61.9 80.0 342.7 29 332 -78

2061 16.0 76.1 92.6 476.1 21 377 109

Source: S. Irudaya Rajan,(2007): “Population Ageing”, in C.C. Kartha (ed.). Kerala-Fifty years and belonged, Gautha Books, p.128.


85


The decline in fertility has reduced the overall dependency

burden from 94.0 to in 1961 to 57.6 in 2001. Though the aged

dependency ratio are on the increase, the overall dependency ratio

has shown a decline of 37 points during 1961-2001.

The projected age dependency ratios for the period 2001-

2061 are also shown in the table. During this period the young

dependency ratios are expected to decline from 41 in 2001 to 16 in

2061. The implications of these ratios for the future is that instead of

every six working age persons there would be only two working

persons in 2061 who will have to share the responsibility of taking

care of at least one aged persons. Moreover, the probability of the

aged person being a woman, who is a widow, less skilled, less

educated and not working, non-recipient of social security

allowance, unhealthy without health insurance, is also much higher.

In Kerala, the rate of increase among elderly persons will much

higher. In 2061, there is likely to be 476 elderly persons for every

100 children in Kerala.


86


Figure 3.10

Dependency Ratio for Kerala

Source: Compiled from Table 3.12

Young Dependency Ratio (a measure showing the number of

young dependents(aged 0-14) to the total working population(aged

15-59) as a percentage).It has declined from 82.7 in 1961 to half the

level 41.1 in 2001. During the same period, aged dependency ratio

(no. Of old dependents aged 60 and above/working population aged

15-59*100) has increased from11.3 to 16.5 in 2001. Total

dependency ratio (percentage of total dependents aged 0-14, and

60 and above to the total working population aged 15-59) has come

down from 94 in 1961 to 57.6 in 2001.

The index of ageing (ratio of population aged sixty and above

to the population aged 0-14 shows an increasing trend in this period.

From 13.7 in 1961, the ageing index has increased three fold to

40.1. Index of children (ratio of population aged 0-14 to population

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1961 1981 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061

Young

Old


87


aged 60 years and above) has drastically come down from 731 to

250. Index of parents to children (ratio of population aged 60-74 to

population aged 40-44 as a percentage) which was 105 in 1961 has

increased to 130 in 2001. Index of oldest to young old (ratio of the

population aged 80 years above to the population aged 60-64) also

has increased from 23 to 38 during the period 1961-2001.

Though the aged dependency ratios are on the increase, the

overall dependency ratio has shown a decline of 37 points during

1961-2001.

The projected age dependency ratios for the period 2001-

2026 are also shown in the table. During this period the young

dependency ratios are expected to decline from 41 in 2001 to 16 in

2061. The implications of these ratios for the future is that instead of

every six working age persons there would be only two working

persons in 2061who will have to share the responsibility of taking

care of at least one aged person. Moreover, the probability of the

aged person being a woman, who is a widow, less skilled, less

educated and not working, non-recipient of social security

allowance, unhealthy without health insurance, is also much higher.

In Kerala, the rate of increase among elderly persons will be much

higher. In 2061, there is likely to be 476 elderly persons for every

100 children in Kerala.

3.10. Social Security for Elderly

Successive governments in Kerala have introduced 35 social

security and assistance schemes, which are currently being

implemented. Among the southern states, Kerala spends close to 3


88


per cent of its budget for social security programs and the

neighboring states of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. The schemes are

classified into four categories (Rajan, 1999).

A. Schemes which are fully financed by the state and central

governments:

1. National Old Age Pension (NOAP).

B. Schemes which are fully financed by the State:

1. Kerala Destitute and Widow Pension Scheme

2. Kerala Agricultural Workers Pension Scheme

3. Special Pension Scheme for the Physically Handicapped and

Mentally Retarded

4. Old Age Pension to Craftsmen

5. Pension to Sportsmen in Indigent Circumstances

6. Pension to Journalists in Indigent Circumstances

7. Pension to Cine Artists in Indigent Circumstances

8. Pension to Freedom Fighters

9. Pension to Second World War Veterans

C. Major schemes which are financed with partial state support

1. Kerala Coir Workers' Welfare Fund

2. Kerala Construction Workers' Welfare Fund

3. Kerala Fishermen' Welfare Fund


89


D. Schemes which are financed outside the budget and

operated by respective boards

1. Kerala Headload Workers' Welfare Fund

2. Kerala Abkari Workers' Welfare Fund Scheme

3. Kerala Toddy Workers' Welfare Fund

4. Kerala Agricultural Workers' Welfare Fund

Indira Gandhi National Old Age Pension Scheme (IGNOAPS)

covers older persons having no regular source of income his/her own

or no financial support from family members. In 2007 it renamed as

Indira Gandhi National Policy of Older Persons (IGNPOP) include all

persons below 65 years of age (Kannan, 2007).

Annapurna Scheme covers the elderly Below Poverty Line

(B.P.L) who are not covered under (NOAPS) 10 kg of food grains per

person per month are supplied free of cost.

The Old Age Social and Income Security (OASIS) appointed

by the central government have recommended the old age pension

scheme for the old belonging to the unorganised sector. National

Adhar scheme introduced by the central government will help the

senior citizens to get concessions in railway and fight tickets.

The national policy on older persons was announced by the

government in 1999, as an international year of older persons by UN

and the year 2000 was declared as national year by the India

government.


90


Among the programs, the highest number of beneficiaries is

reported for agricultural worker pension (5.3 lakh), followed by

widow/ destitute pension (2.1 lakh), pension for persons with

disabilities (1.5 lakh) and national old age pensions.

Recent studies indicated that more than 70 percent of women in

Kerala are protected by various family planning methods and 80 per

cent of them are sterilized.

According to the Economic Review (2010), around 12 lakhs

elderly are beneficiaries of various social security and assistance

schemes in Kerala. They account for 40 per cent of the elderly

population. Not even a single systematic study exists in Kerala to

assess the real beneficiaries.

If the government can implement all the schemes very

seriously and provide assistance to the real needy among elderly,

Kerala can continue to run the social assistance schemes without

much financial constraints. The budget for social welfare can be

increased by diverting money from family planning and primary

education. It is hope that the government thorough panchayat level

institutions will be able to identify the needy real beneficiaries.


91


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Asha A. Bhende, Tara Kanitkar (2006): “Principals of Population

Studies”, Himalaya Publishing House, Mumbai, p130.

Census of India (2001, 2011)

Cherunilam, Francis (1987):“Migration-Causes, Correlates,

Consequences, Trends and Policies”, Bombay, Himalaya

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District Census Hand Books (2011) Alappuzha, Kottayam and

Pathanamthitta.

Economic Review, State Planning Board, Thiruvananthapuram

(2010, 2011)

George J. Stolnitz, Ronald Freedman (1964): “The Demographic

Transition: From High to Low Birth Rates and Death Rates”,

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Ghazy Mujahid (2000): “Population Ageing in East and South-East

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Kannan, K.P (2006): “Kerala’s Development Challenges”, in

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Zachariah, K.C (2008): “A Century of Developments in Kerala

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Documents

CHAPTER III DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION …shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/35275/14/14...CHAPTER III DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORETICAL IMPLICATIONS 3.1. Demographic Transition: