International Snow Science Workshop (2002: Penticton, B.C.)

CHARACTERISTICS OF AVALANCHE ACCIDENTS IN WESTERNHIMALAYAN REGION, INDIA

Ashwagosha Ganju *, Naresh K Thakur, Vijay RanaSnow & Avalanche Study Establishment

ABSTRACTAvalan~hes caused. c?nsi~erab~e damage. initially to !he inhabitants of Himalayan belt but lately only a smallpropomon of the ongmal inhabitants of Himalayan regIOn have suffered due to avalanche menace. The inhabitants,after initial suffering settled their dwellings at safe places through logic as well as trial and error method. Thhazard, however, increased with the movement of persons in the inner belts of Himalayan region. The movem~this time was not for the settlement but for carrying out the various tasks in the high altitude snow bound regions.The paper analyses the evolution and progress of avalanche accidents in Western Himalayan region. The cause ofsome of the major avalanche disasters was found to be unprecedented weather situation that caught people off­guard. The authors opine that with the increasing population and increased activity in the Himalaya belt like wintersports, adventure tourism, refuge in hills etc., the threat is likely to assume greater proportion in near future. Whileavalanche forecasting models are being refmed and fine-tuned and better equipment are being developed for safetravel through avalanche terrain, emphasis in the Western Himalayan region should also be given to awareness andquality education programme. This will help the pedestrians to take adequate precautionary measures whilenegotiating avalanche slopes.

1. Introduction

200

Avalanches, a well-known threat in snow boundmountainous terrain, is dreaded for its destructivepotential. Thousands of people have lost their lives inavalanches so far. In comparison to the other naturalhazards, snow avalanche is a relatively less known, onaccount of the remoteness of the scene of disaster awayin the mountains. Nonetheless, they have rocked themountains and claimed the toll of lives and propertywinter after winter. In comparison to earthquakes wheredestruction can go up to thousands or even up tomillions, avalanches are relatively less destructiveforces. Tangshan earthquake of 1976 killed quarter ofmillion people (Clifford, 1989). The famous avalanchedisaster in Switzerland in 1951 and in Himalaya in Mar1979 killed only 98 persons and 200 personsrespectively. However, as per WMO nearly 5000 peoplehave been killed by avalanches in the world during1947-1980. The incidents are likely to increase in futureis deduced from the fact that more than 60 millionvisitors spent a night in Alps in winter in 2000 asagainst 13 million in 1980 (New Scientist 1999). Withincreasing demand for winter sport, skiing, patrollingthe interaction with avalanches is likely to increasemanifold.The necessity of movement (Skiing, patrolling, wintersports etc.) and the poor knowledge of the nature ofsnow pack on mountains makes backcountry travelersvulnerable to avalanche menace. The risk of death inavalanche (once caught) is 100 times the risk for peoplecaught in ordinary mountaineering, (McClung et al,1993). The backcountry people, in the past, choose safe

*Con-esponding author address: Ashwagosha Ganju,Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment, Researchand Development Center, Him Parisar, Plot No 1 Sector37 A Chandigarh, India; tel 0091-172-699805; fax:0091-172-699802; email: ashwa85@Yahoo.com

dwelling locations through trial and error methodor through basic reasoning. However, the safemovement through the avalanche terrain was notgiven much of a thought and as a result some ofthe major accidents in last two decades or so tookplace while people were on move.In the Indian region, especially in WesternHimalayan region, only a miniscule population(approximately 3% of the total) lives in avalancheprone areas. Notwithstanding, avalanches haveproportionally killed more people in the past.While civilian people generally confine to the fourwalls during winter months, carrying out vet)'restricted movement in the avalanche prone areas,the chances of their getting caught in avalancheshas been found to be higher than in any otherEuropean country having similar avalancheterrain. In Western Himalaya. while every fifthperson traversing through the avalanche terrain iscaught in an avalanche, in Europe every twentiethperson crossing an avalanche terrain is caught inan avalanche.Snow avalanche fatalities in India till lateseventies have been low except one odd event, forexample; during the winter of 1829-30 when sixtyodd persons got killed in avalanches in Trilokinatharea of Lahaul & Spiti district of HimachalPradesh. Majority of accidents till then, areassumed to have taken place due to the wrongsiting of villages. By early seventies villagersresettled their dwellings at fairly safe locations.However, the subsequent increase in avalanchefatalities from late seventies to late eighties wasthe result of increasing movement of peoplethrough the avalanche terrain. Though there hasbeen significant drop in the causality rate due toavalanches since nineties, the trend is likely to

(cI)

~ase in future as the activities like winter sports,111 • .tourism; vigilance etc. IS on mcrease now.

2. Problem Definition

To start with it is important to understand whyavalanche accidents take place. Avalanche accidents inthe past are understood to have taken place as a result ofignorance and fatalistic attitude of the people towardsavalanche phenomenon. The present day accidents aremore related to casualness and ignorance. Todaypedestrians' etc. moves with ~o~ amount of riskfactor as in the case of motor drivmg. However, moreoften, out of ignorance, the risk taken by them inmoving through the avalanche prone area is more. Theproblem of uncertainty associated with avalanchephenomenon is unique and the accidents as a resultbring more agony and are not generally acceptable.Assessing avalanche danger at anyone time is difficultas behavior of snow as a material is still beinginvestigated. Hence, pedestrians travelling in avalancheprone area always run a risk, which of course is alsounique to other natural hazards. Besides that, thepedestrians repeat the same mistakes as committedearlier in traversing through the avalanche terrain. Theaccidents generally take place immediately after thecessation of snowfall when people venture out in clearday weather situation. Since most of the movement inIndian Himalaya is generally through the valley bottomregion, most of the accidents took place in the run-out­zones of avalanches. Very recently some movementshave started taking place in the middle and formationzone of avalanches also but the number is still verysmall. Since daytime or early morning movement ispreferred while traversing through avalanche terrain inIndia, most of the accidents have taken place during thedaytime.

From the foregoing the cause of avalanche accidentscan be addressed to the following:

(a) Interaction of man with nature may causeaccidents.

(b) While past avalanche accidents were the resultof lack of knowledge and fatalistic attitude, thepresent day accidents are involved with highrisk that a pedestrian is ready to take.

(c) Avalanche accidents cannot be totallyeliminated; however, awareness can begenerated to help people take calculated riskwhile venturing in avalanche terrain.

Th~ people who are likely to get involved in avalancheaCCIdent need to be identified and a scheme evolved tominimize the avalanche mishaps.

3. Materials and Methods

The avalanche areas of Himalayan region lie along the~orthem part of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh,

lis of Uttaranchal, extending up to Sikkim in the201

Case Histories

eastern region. These areas, due to communicationdifficulties and remoteness from the rest of thecountry, are very thinly populated andunderdeveloped and hence a lot of incidents ofavalanches in these areas go unnoticed.In fact due to lack of communication,backwardness of the areas and security reasons,very little is reported in the news regardingavalanche accidents. In India, an average of 30-40human lives is lost and assets worth millions ofrupees are destroyed every year, in the snow­bound regions due to avalanches. There is nosystematic record available of the years before1970 and very little attention was paid to archivethe data in proper format.The present study comprised collection ofinformation that was already available in thearchives of SASE. SASE had in early eightiesconducted survey based on a questionnaire onavalanche accidents in various areas of J&K, lIPand Uttaranchal. This information was furtherverified through newspaper reports. A fresh set ofquestionnaire was sent in 2001 to variousorganizations and feedback on avalanche accidentswas collected. Data thus collected over last twodecades on the avalanche accidents and damages isthus in no way complete. Actual figures are likelyto be many times higher since a number ofincidents go unreported.

4. Results and Discussions

The analysis and discussion in the subsequentparagraphs shall be covered to find out as to whatcaused avalanche accidents in the past.

4.1 Avalanche terrain and accidents:Himalaya has a very rugged terrain. Generally theslopes are quite steep and barren of any vegetationexcept in a few areas, which sustain forest linemaximum up to 3000m.

4.1.1 Distribution by Slope AngleMajority of avalanche releases that killed peoplehas taken place from slopes between 30 to 45Degrees. Of these, the slopes of31-35° have killedthe maximum (33%). The data tallies with theanalysis given by (McClung, 1999). Small tomedium sized avalanches from slopes between 46­50° have killed about 9% of the people. Smallproportions of the accidents (4%) from slopesbetween 25-30° are the cases of wet snowavalanches. Together, the slopes between 31 to 46°have claimed the maximum avalanche casualty inthe past in western Himalayan region. (Fig 1)

4.1.2 Distribution by Slope AspectAvalanche accidents have taken place from alltypes of aspects in the Western Himalayan regionin the past. However, northerly, southeasterly and

International Snow Science Workshop (2002: Penticton, B.C.)

Pir-Panjal~ 26%

Percent of Accidents by Mountain RangeOthers

7%

Greater­Himalaya

37%

Avl Trig Slope Angles

southwesterly slopes have taken the maximum toll thereafter, shows a trend towards stabi1i~

constituting about 50% of the total accidents recorded However, the complex snow struCture withso far. (Fig 2) weaknesses evolves over Great Himalayan Range

(Depth hoar and Surface Hoar formation). Themost accident-prone place also happens to beGreat Himalayan Range. The distribution ofaccidents that have taken place in differentmountain ranges is given in (Fig 3)

Fig 1. Distribution of avalanche accidents on slopeangle

Aspects...." ".BNNE

c ••OENE

••(:lESE

.s.eSSE

.smssweswe1ll6w.w•.-..NW

sow S ...... '" '"

Fig2: Distribution of avalanche accidents on slopeaspect.

This is understandably the consequence of wind loadingand sunshine. Southerly slopes receive maximumsunshine and immediately after each snow spell releaseavalanches, . which has been seen many a timescoinciding with the movement of the people. Northerlyslopes remain in unstable state for longer duration andas such 13% of the total accidents are from northerlyslopes. Snow accumulation due to drift snow takesplace on certain preferred slopes depending uponprevalent wind direction and valley orientation. Theaccidents due to accumulation of additional drift snowhave not been investigated.

4.1.3 Distribution by Mountain Range

Pir Panjal receives maximum snowfall, which isgenerally moist. As a result the settlement of snow isfast. Majority of avalanches in this range takes placeeither during snowfall or immediately after thecessation of storm on clear sunny days. The snowpack,

202

Fig3: Distribution of accidents according tomountain range.

4.2 Accident Trend

The year wise fatalities of both civil andarmy personnel from 1829-30 to 2000-01 is givenin (Fig 4)The earliest record of avalanche accident availablewith SASE is of 1829-30 winter. The data,however, is regular from 1970-71. In these recordsalso, the data pertaining to army accidents is moreor less complete than of the civil, which has oftengone unreported. The period from 1978-79 to1989-90 has, barring one odd year, producedmaximum avalanche casualties in the history ofIndian Himalaya. This increase in the avalancheaccidents could be attributed mainly to theignorance and ill equipped adventures taken up byarmy as well as civilians. The widespreadavalanche activity of 1978-79, 1982-83 and 1987­88 made people to ponder over precautionarymeasures and safety measures. The yearsfollowing 1990-91 have once again seen the steadydecline barring the year of 1997-98 when 69persons got killed in seventeen accidents. The ratioof the deaths to accidents is given in (Fig 5).On an average about 5 to 7 persons lost their livesin each accident except during 1829-30, 1978-79and 1987-88 when in an unprecedented weathersituations, more lives were lost. The five yearsmoving average of avalanche accidents, which hasbeen low till 1977-78 increased steadily till 1991­92. Further beyond 91-92, there has been decreasein accident rate, which stands at 10-12 persons peryear.

Case Histories---=========~r==.=_==_=~~=====_=:::::_..=====_.=====._=====__ =====__. =====.---=====5""-

n.13. ~

..No of Accidents

~Death.

2600

Fig 5: Ratio of deaths to avalanche accidents.

2...

2OOOT"""-----------------i

80

a7' '-'

..

..CO

30

20

~ ~

7' ..... ............__..........

..IIIiI No of Accidents

" Ell Deaths..- Ratio Deaths/Accidents

30 ,.20

1-20 .,.

10

~

~ i i i ; ~~

~ ~Vear -

, ,, ,, ,

1-

L 11

r

Fig4: Year wise fatalities of avalanche accidentsin Himalaya

The current average stands at about 10 persons per year,which as per international norms is an exceptionalaccident average. The ten year moving average inclearly demonstrates that there has been a period in thehistory of avalanche incidents in western Himalayanregion when a steady rise from 1977-78 culminated in apeak in 1987-88 followed by steady fall since then. Thesteady fall could be attributed to awareness programmeslaunched in last decade or so. Avalanche incidents islikely to increase in future, however, the fatal onesshould show a downward trend.

Tda! fller5a'l Td FW IGIed P<iIed /filmy I<iUed C\4I 1~ ...ed-aviJ lr1ur....~.....Fig 6: Total number of army and civilian personskilled in avalanche accidents.

1526

200

...600

l/POOgo,.~

8!....0' "0000

~

4.2.1 Total accidentsTill date, out of 2344 persons who got involved inavalanche incidents, about 1452 people have got killed.Out of this the Army alone had 458 causalities andabout 994 civilians lost their lives. The details of totalarmy and civilian causalities are given in (Fig6).4.2.2 Mobile and Static Accidents

203

In Western Himalayan region a considerable proportion(62%) of the total people killed due to avalanches theones on move (Fig 7). In only one major disaster 29percent persons were killed when they were static viz.m their houses, bam etc. Since majority of times thelllOvementhasbeen

!ill No of Accidents

III People Inv.

o People Killed

o People Injured

Monthwtse No of Accidents

i•:

31 311" lll47 1 sos ,'ITll "1' I a •

~ ~ >. .. '"~

j ~

~ ::! '& '" c '3 " ..'" '" :;: " " ...

" '" c( ..,'" E S"

..,"c li :;:c( S u

'" .. Q, 0.., ...Months ..

I/)

'11. ~t..«

......e.0_

"11. ...

0""oz""

Fig9: Monthly distribution of avalanche victims.

Fig8: Monthly distribution of avalanche accidentsin Himalaya

4.3 Accident-Weather Situation.

Snowfall period constituted the dominant weathersituation when avalanche accidents took place inthe past. Of the total accidents, 46% took placeduring snowfall period followed by 23 % duringcloudy conditions and 21 % during clear weathersituation (Fig 10).Accidents during rain events constitute about onepercent only. The cloudy and clear weathersituations when accidents have taken place aregenerally those ones, which were immediatelypreceded by snowfall.

4.3.1 Accidents within 24 h of the cessation ofthe storm.Except in certain situation, the snowfall in WesternHimalayan region is generally followed byabsolute clear weather situation. The clear weathersituation immediately after the cessation of stormhas had about 64 % of the total accidents in thepast. During cloudy conditions after the snowfall,24 % accidents have taken place so far. (Fig 11)

Motiler62%

through valley region, it is assumed the accidents have disastrous months when in the past nearly 11--;----been from natural releases and not from the self people got killed out of 1817 involved and left 545triggered slopes. There has been about 200 percent injured.increase in avalanche accidents from 1959-74 to 1974- ,~----------- _89 while the people were in pursuit of recreationactivities in Canada. In comparison there has been about80 percent decrease in the accidents in buildings duringthe same period in Canada. In India also, the staticaccidents (viz. in buildings etc.) are on decrease andaccidents while in pursuit of recreation activities orduring vigil/ patrolling on border is going to increase.

Fig 7: Percent of accidents while on move and instatic mode.

4.2.3 Distribution by MonthThe avalanche season and with that the accidents inWestern Himalayan region starts from September andalmost culminates in August. This trend is comparableto the trend observed in United States, Atkins et.al(2000). Whereas in Europe and United States, the peakof avalanche activity and the accidents have generallybeen reported in Jan or Feb, in India it has been inMarch touching a to about 36 percent of total accidentsin different months (Fig8). The second most fatalmonths are Jan and Feb. Clubbing these three months,January to March constitutes the dominant 71%accident-prone months in Western Himalaya region(Fig8).The maximum number of fatal accidents in March canbe attributed to the commencement of movement ofpersons who after the hibernation of 3 to 4 monthsbeginning from November venture out as the warmingtrend follows (Fig9).While they attempt to venture out on snow laden slopes,the warming trend that sets in by then initiates moistslab avalanches.March has also been observed to receive rain on snowevents and wet snow ponding puts additional porepressure and lubricates snowpack to release as wet snowor slush avalanches. The transient weather conditionduring this month has been seen to produce a fewmassive spells taking the pedestrians by surprise. Thethree months of Jan-March constitute the single most

204

International Snow Science Workshop (2002: Penticton, B.C.)

Case Histories~-================lr==================j--

snowfall46%

1% Partly Cloudy9%

1m Cloudy

IIlIIClear

D Partly Cloudy

DRain

"Snowfall

ffillCloudy

11III Clear

D Partly Cloudy

DRain

Fig 10: Weather during avalanche accidentsFig 12: Avalanche accidents during intermediateperiod.

I§ Cloudy

1m Clear

D Partly Cloudy

DRain

Soft Stab17%

o AirborneI!iII Dry SlabDiceDLooseSnow• Loose WetDSlabIII Soft Slabo Wet

Loose Snow42%

Figll: Weather situation during accident within 24 hof the cessation of storm

All accidents during intermediate period (periodbetween two storms, excluding the period of 24 h afterthe cessation of storm) have taken place during cloudydays (Fig 12).

4.3.2 Distribution by Type of AvalancheMajority of avalanches in Western Himalayan

region are massive snowfall related. This being moreapplicable in Pir Panjal Range where massive spells athigh precipitation rate load the slopes rapidly to releaseloose snow avalanches. As a result, the maximumnumber of avalanche accidents (42%) are loose snowavalanche related (Fig 13).A. good proportion of accidents (17%) is due to thefailure of soft slabs. which on 80 % of the occasionshave been released by the pedestrians themselves. Softslabs get formed in Great Himalaya and Karakoramranges. Moist loose snow avalanches are dominant fromP' .If PanJal ranges. Air borne avalanches have been .

generally noticed in Karakoram ranges. A few airborne~alanches.e.~. in Meenamarg, Sonmarg (J&K), Thangu

antok (Sikkim), Gusikar (HP) and in Siachen haverov~ fatal and claimed many lives. In Alps and

anadian Mountains, generally dry slabs dominate

205

Fig 13: Type of avalanche activity reported duringAccident time.

the avalanche accidents, since most of the skiersseek out for skiing on dry snow conditions.4.3.3 Time of AccidentAs already brought out majority of avalancheaccidents in the past have taken place duringdaytime. Out of these, maximums of 41%accidents have taken place in the time slot of1000-1500h. This is the time when people aregenerally on move or are about to reach to theirdestinations. The other major block time ofaccidents has taken place between 0600-1000hwhen about 31 % people got killed (Fig 14). Thisis the time when people are generally on move.4.4 State-wise accidents.

The details of state-wise accidents aregiven in (Fig 15)

4.4.1 Jammu & Kashmir State has taken themajor brunt of avalanche accidents in the past.Both civilians and army suffered major avalancheaccidents in the Kashmir valley. Whereas thenumber of army persons involved is more, thedeaths due to accidents in case of

International Snow Science Workshop (2002: Penticton, B.C.)

Ol Pettestrian

o Not Known

11II Natural

Fig 16: Nature ofrelease of accident avalanches baSin Indian context been generally natural.

4.5.1 Distribution by Release and Movement

when massive avalanches hit the stateplaces and a villages got buried in it

4.5 Interaction with People.

In India, avalanches are of size 3 - 4, on Canadianscale. Massive avalanches in at least 3-4 waves ina season travel down the slopes at almost all theplaces in Western Himalayan region. Theexceptions being the glaciated regions, wheresmall loose and soft slab avalanches keeptriggering throughout the winter. Only a few rareoccurrences are of size 4 or 5.

Pedestrian4%

4.4.3 Sikkim and Uttaranchal had very fewavalanche accidents in the past. In one oddoccasion, 10 people lost their lives in avalanchesin Uttaranchal and 19 in Sikkim. There may besevere avalanche activity taking place in Sikkimand Uttaranchal also, but the interaction withpeople, especially, during winter months isnegligible.

Although a major portion of the available data(33%) does not signify the cause of the release ofavalanches, however, a significant proportion(63%) does point to natural release of avalanches.In the context of Indian Himalaya, on very fewoccasions do pedestrians cross an avalanche paththrough its formation zone. Most of the time themovement has been carried out through the valley.Unlike in Europe where major accidents arerelated to the pedestrian's releases, WesternHimalayan region has had avalanche causalitiesmostly due to natural releases. The only few casesof pedestrian release (4%) are that of armypersonnel who on patrol released it. (Fig 16).

Sikkim

02000-0600 (Hrs)

01500-2000 (Hrs)

11II1000-1500 (Hrs)

Eil0600-1000 (Hrs)

H'

Fig 15: State-wise avalanche accidents show maximumcausalities in J&K State

army as well as civil are comparable. The reason forsuch high avalanche deaths in this state is its proximityto international border, which runs all along theavalanche prone areas and has to be guarded all 12months in a year. On occasions like the years of 1982­83 and 1987-88, maximum civilians lost their lives inunprecedented weather situations that brought massiveavalanches. The calamity in both the cases took placewhen the persons involved in the accident werewithdrawing from the avalanche prone mountainousterrain.There has been a slight increase in the number ofavalanche victims since 1989-90 in the State, primarilydue the increased patrolling activity in the state.Frequent patrolling and insufficient knowledge ofavalanche terrain has claimed many lives in the State.

4.4.2 Himachal Pradesh does share a small portion ofits border with a neighboring country and the movementis predominantly of army personal. However, snowfallis generally sparse in the border area and as a resultonly a few avalanche incidents took place in the area.The high figure of 259 avalanche victims has beenmainly due to the unprecedented weather of Mar1979

Fig 14: Timing of avalanche accidents in Indianconditions has generally been during morningmovement.

206

DNo ofAcci

IIIIlnv_Civil

~ o Kill_Civil

Dlnv_Army

11II Kill_Army

i':: ~--'==o.~fE!lllIIiilL-L"-""""~""':"";"'~--'.-:-.::..J..' r...:.:.__' ,_.

2000·0600 (Hrs)

13°'"

,....,..."",A'" c3J

Fig 17: Avalanche accidents during warning orotherwise

Case Histories

improvement in avalanche forecasting can beexpected now only through some technologicalbreakthrough. Meanwhile, it is only througheducation and awareness that significant dropcould be expected in avalanche fatalities.While natural avalanches have been the maincause of concern till date, the scenario is likely tochange soon when the recreationist andmountaineers would start going on to the slopesand release avalanches themselves.There has been significant decline in the avalancheaccidents of civilian people in the past decade orso. Among other factors, which could be attributedto the decline of accidents among civilians isgeneral awareness, safe constructions and fairlydry weather conditions that have been prevalentduring past few years.Avalanche accidents will continue to take place inHimalaya, however, a proactive approach isrequired to be taken to mitigate the threat. Whileencouraging people to go to hills, enjoy wintersports, take tourism to new pastures deep withinHimalayan ranges the avalanche accidents needs tobe minimized. This can be achieved throughawareness programmes, controlled release ofavalanches, encouraging winter tourism industry togrow and bringing the fruits of basic research tothe affected masses.Awareness thus promoted will provide a survivalstrategy for people who are likely to be travellingin avalanche terrain. The strategy of makingpeople take their own decisions by learning to dotheir own thinking (promoted by education) thanto use someone's else's (provided by warningservices) has been amply made clear by (McClung1993).Lastly having a good weather forecast, at leastthree days in advance would help in assessing theinstability of snow pack better and forewarn thepeople of the impending danger.

6. AcknowledgementThe authors are thankful to Maj Gen SS Sharma,KC VSM for encouraging us in the preparation ofthis paper. Weare also thankful to Indian Army inproviding us some of the valuable information.Our sincere thanks is also due to the scientists andTechnical Assistants of Avalanche ForecastingGroup, SASE for contributing in one way or theother in compiling this information and analysis.

7. References-McClung et al (1993). The Avalanche Handbook.p15-Clifford Embleton (1989) Natural hazards andglobal change ITC JoumaI1989-3/4 pp 169-178.-New Scientist, Mar 1999; pp 20-21-Atkins D and Williams Knox (2000). ProceedingISSW 2000. pp 16-20

• Warning

§lAdy

DNo Warning

DNo! Known

Adv10%

NotKn~/i"u..~mS-/

22% 19V

5. Summary and conclusionAnalyzing the causes of accidents, it has been found!hat th~ majority of accidents have taken place during or:mediat~IY after the cessation of storm. Ignorance of

e behavIOur of avalanche slopes has been the mainfa~or for the avalanche accidents in western Himalayanregton. The civilian populations either stops theirmovement, confining to four walls or if need beund~e movement without paying any heed to the~gs. With the growing interest in winter sports them~dems lik 1 . 'tr . are e y to illcrease. However, downwarden~ ill fatal causalities is expected.~~a~al:mche forecasts are improving by leaps andth ' It IS too bad that people don't always act on

em (New Scientist 1999, p 20-21). Any further207

However, on very rare occasions such incorrectassessments have been made.The victims on the other hand, did at times ignore thevital clues, which indicated unstable state of thesnowpack.

~istribution during warning and non-warning

period.

C'vilian as well as Army personnel generally adhere toa~alanche warring issued by.SASE. H~wever, dU~ to

.....e compulsions e.g. causality evacuation, patrolling,so.... . . hambush, the army carnes out movement Wit some

ecautionary measures. It has been found that the~~alanche deaths on such occasions have taken placedue to ignorance of the masses about snowpackbehavior. (Fig 17) describes the status of accidentsrecorded during warning, non-warning and advisoryperiod. Majority o~ accide~ts (about 45%) have takenplace during. w~g penod and on 22% cases nowarning was Issued ill the past.The failure to assess the stability of snow pack, whichultimately resulted in accidents, during non-warningperiods, could be attributed to a number of factors. Thenon-receipt of timely data from forward observatories,or the lapses on the part of the forecasters/practitioners who missed the finer details of the dataprovided to them could be some of the causes.