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Character spacing and line spacing in an identity document

by The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley June 2013

Introduction

This memorandum, originally prepared in furtherance of a request by lawyers in Hawaii that I should conduct a probability calculation to determine the likelihood that Mr. Obama s purported birth certificate at the White House website is genuine, examines character spacing and line spacing in a high-­resolution image (the reporters copy ) of what purports on its face to be the Hawaiian long-­form birth certificate of Barack Hussein Obama, born August 4, 1961;; suggests ways to overcome difficulties posed by the non-­availability of the original document;; compares the image with a birth certificate known to be genuine and with a further certificate specially created by an expert using a mechanical typewriter;; and assesses the probability that the document was created normally by a clerk inserting a pre-­printed blank form into a mechanical typewriter, typing the data, and passing the form to the parents, the physician, and the public authorities for signature and certification. Qualifications: I hold a degree in Classical Architecture from Cambridge University, including instruction in mathematics. I am the Director of Monckton Enterprises Ltd., which, inter alia, investigates government-­level frauds, on which I advised Margaret Thatcher from 1982-­1986 at 10 Downing Street. I used mechanical typewriters for 14 years. I have experience in the use of geometric drawing software in mathematics and in architecture. I was the 2012 Nerenberg Lecturer in Mathematics at the University of Western Ontario, Canada. Method: I calibrated my copy of Autosketch 10 as described at Annex 1;; superimposed a grid up ;; examined the document in relation to the grid;; enlarged portions of the image where necessary to allow close inspection;; made observations;; red-­flagged any irregularities which did not appear inadvertent;; summarized the red-­flagged items and assigned probabilities to them;; compared the document with a birth certificate known to be genuine;; and drew conclusions.

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The document

There are two images of Mr. Obama s birth certificate in circulation. One, on the White House website, is of insufficient resolution. I used the other, a high-­resolution image given to reporters at a White House press conference on April 27, 2011. I have not had access to the original document.

The grid overlay

To examine the nature, magnitude and extent of any irregularities in the character and line spacing, I constructed a grid overlay using Autosketch 10, a precise architectural drawing program, and superimposed the grid upon the image of the document of interest.

Vertical grid reference lines

Mechanical typewriters of the type used in 1961 allocated equal width or pitch to each character. However, since I did not have an original document to work from, I was unable to determine the character pitch that had been used. To overcome this difficulty and align the grid to the typed characters, I looked for a long line of continuously-­typed text with two pairs of identical letters in

piolani Maternity & Gynecological Hospi piinterval between these two lines was 37 characters in width. I carefully placed vertical reference lines precisely asured the distance between the two lines as 13.061 units. Thus, each character was 0.353 units wide. Using this measurement, I used the architectural drawing program to cover the entire area of the form with vertical blue lines 0.353 units apart.

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Horizontal grid reference lines

Mechanical typewriters advanced the line feed by one line at a time when the operator pressed the carriage return. The birth certificate form appears designed so that each data field is separated from the next by two typewriter lines, with the uppermost data field deeper by an extra line. To verify this, I drew red horizontal hairlines through the center of the uppermost and lowermost printed black form-­rules at the endpoints of the vertical green reference line towards the right of the form. After measuring the length of that line as 16.956 units, I divided this distance by 11.5 form-­boxes to obtain the height of each two-­line-­deep data field: 1.474435 units. Starting at the bottom of the form, I copied the baseline upward at intervals of 1.474435 units, confirming by eye that the horizontal red lines were approximately coincident with the black printed form-­rules, consistent with form design intended to facilitate data entry by the typist positioning the print-­head a little above the lower form-­rule of box 1a, entering data from left to right across the form, then pressing the carriage-­return and line-­feed lever twice to advance to the next box, #2, and so on. Next, I looked for several lines of typed text positioned identical distances above the form lines. There were five, beginning with boxes 6c, 7d, 8, 10, and 13 respectively, where the feet of the typed characters were 0.37 units above the red horizontal grid-­lines. I copied each red grid-­line upward by 0.37 units and colored these character-­foot reference lines magenta.

Observations: character spacing

The fundamental character-­spacing irregularity evident in the document is that, though almost all of the typed text on the left-­hand half of the form is perfectly aligned within the blue vertical grid-­lines, almost all of the typed text on the right-­hand half of the form is misaligned by up to half a character width. It is not likely that this misalignment occurred as a result of optical distortion (parallax) arising from photographic copying or image processing, since the misalignments are not progressive. On the contrary, a step-­change occurs at the center of the form, with substantially correct alignment to the left, part-­correct and part-­incorrect alignment at the center and entirely incorrect alignment to the right. Nor are the misalignments unidirectional, as they would have been if they were attributable to optical distortion: some of them on the right-­hand half of the form are rightward and others leftward of the correct alignment. The various character misalignments evident in most of the data typed on the right-­hand half of the form, when compared with the regularity evident on nearly all of the left-­hand half, are not likely to have occurred by inadvertence. Each independent irregularity of character spacing is enumerated below. C1. In box 1a, the characters of BARACK and HUSSEIN fall precisely within the grid-­lines, suggesting that at this part of the form any scanning, photocopying, optimizing or other processing has not introduced any significant distortions. right-­hand end of the line, are markedly out of alignment with the blue vertical grid-­lines:

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T ARA on the left-­hand half of the form fall between the blue vertical grid-­AMA on the right-­hand half of the form, in box 1c, are struck

through the center by the vertical grid-­lines. Likewise, again in box 1a, I on the left-­hand half of the form falls neatly between the vertical blue grid-­ on the right-­hand half of the form are again struck through the center by the vertical grid-­lines. Furthermore, the incorrectly-­correctly-­

Box 1c Box 8

A typist completing box 1c would have been unlikely to release the platen rollers to allow the paper

on a single line, particularly where precise alignment was not necessary. This misalignment is not likely to have occurred either by inadvertence or by parallax. C2. In boxes 6a and 7a vertical blue grid-­

e right-­shifted by one-­third of a character, while in box 7b correctly aligned between the vertical blue grid-­lines:

The right-­shift evident in box 6b, evident to a similar degree in the text in boxes 7c, 7g, 9, 12b, and 14 on the right-­hand side of the form, is too great to be accounted for by parallax. Also, it is unlikely that either parallax or an innocent intervention by the typist would have shifted the

-­hand side of the form. These misalignments are unlikely to have occurred by inadvertence. C3. -­shifted, while all other characters are right-­shifted in a manner inconsistent with mere inadvertence:

C4. In box 2, the is shifted leftward by approximately one-­third of a character width. T -­boxes beneath it:

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A typist entering data into the form in the normal and intended manner would simply press the carriage-­return/line-­feed lever twice, bringing the print-­head to the leftmost end of the form at the beginning of the next box down. Given the correct alignment of items above and below this entry, parallax cannot have caused the misalignment. Nor is it likely that the typist would have temporarily released the form from the platen for just one line, carefully realigning the paper so that subsequent lines were vertically aligned with the line above that for which the form was released. This anomaly is, therefore, unlikely to have occurred by inadvertence. C5. In box 5a, the charac Au are in the same vertical columns as the characters ne a:

Box 5a

Box 17a

In a normally-­completed form, the letters would be identically aligned with respect to the vertical grid-­ left-­shifted at least one-­third of a

-­shifted by about one-­fifth of a character. This irregularity would be unlikely to occur by inadvertence. C6. NLEY ANN DUNprecisely aligned between the blue vertical grid-­lines. However, on the following line, in box 17a,

N Nis perceptibly right-­shifted by one-­fifth of a character:

The regularity of the spacing as far across the form Nsudden right-­shifting N -­shifting of this entry, and inferentially of most of the entries on the right-­hand half of the form, cannot have been caused by parallax.

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Observations: line spacing The fundamental irregularity in the line-­spacing is that it would not be possible, without deliberate intervention, to have several lines each an identical distance above their lower form-­rules while the other lines are at apparently randomly-­varying distances above their form-­rules. Even if the initial positioning had been incorrect, any clerk would immediately deduce that advancing the carriage-­return/line-­feed lever twice would automatically align the print-­head correctly for completing the next form-­line. Accordingly, even if the first line (box 1a) had been incorrectly positioned, even the novice clerk would soon reposition the paper correctly and type the remainder of the form in such a manner that the character-­feet on each line would either be exactly the same distance above the lower form-­rule or that, if there were some slight mismatch between the line-­spacing on the form and that of the typewriter, the distance between the character-­feet and the form-­rule would progressively increase or decrease at a uniform rate. I have considered the possibility that at one or two points perhaps to align the print-­head with a check-­box the typist may have released and moved the paper. However, the pattern of horizontal and vertical irregularities is inconsistent with any such behavior. It is not likely that the line-­spacing irregularity could have arisen by inadvertence. L1. Though boxes 6c, 7d, 8, 10, and 13 are near-­identical distances above their lower form-­rules,

Line 6c Line 7d Line 8 Line 10 Line 13

other lines of text are at apparently randomly-­varying distances above the form-­rules, and accordingly falling above or at varying distances below the magenta character-­foot grid-­lines:

Line 1a Line 2 Line 2 Line 6a Line 7a Line 15

Line 1a is considerably farther away from its lower form-­rule, while lines 2, 6a, 7a, and 15 are much closer: so much so that they are struck through by the magenta standard-­alignment rules. It is implausible that these line-­spacing irregularities occurred by inadvertence. L2. The positioning of the printed check-­boxes close to the lower form-­rule wherever they occur throughout the form indicates that the form was designed to allow the typist to align the paper with the print-­head so that the characters would appear slightly above the lower form-­rule in each box. Then there would be no need to release the platen and shcheck-­marks correctly. Yet lines 1a, 6c, 7d, 8, 10, and 13 (for illustration, see L1 above) are too far above the lower form-­rule. This irregularity is not likely to have occurred by inadvertence. L3. Boxes 6c and 6d, and again 7d and 7e, show identical vertical misalignments between the text leftward of the check-­ -­boxes themselves. Though an inexperienced clerk may have entered the data, and may not have been aware of the advantages of positioning the paper correctly at the outset, it is not likely the clerk would have remained unaware of the ideal positioning after having adjusted the paper to complete the first check-­box. Therefore, this irregularity is unlikely to have occurred by inadvertence:

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L4. -­rule than

This irregularity is not likely to have arisen by inadvertence.

Comparison with a genuine reference certificate

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I was able to examine a genuine Hawaiian birth certificate (above) that was issued a few weeks before the date of the certificate under examination. Though only the right-­hand half of the reference certificate is in good enough condition to allow a grid to be superimposed upon it, it is evident that all of the text originally typed on to the form falls precisely within the vertical grid-­lines from top to bottom of the form. It is also evident that all of the originally-­typed text is at a uniform distance above the lower form rules, tending to confirm that the form was designed to conform to a standard character pitch for mechanical typewriters. There is no variability at all, except significantly in boxes 9, 12b, and 19b, where the text

-­13-­remainder of the typed text. All three of these text entries were made after the original data had been entered, using typewriters of a smaller character-­pitch than that of the original typewriter.

, inferentially, the date was added at the time when the doctor signed the form. It is possible that the doctor or his staff made all three corrections, since the typeface and pitch seem similar. However, I am not expert in the identification of typefaces. All these later alterations occurred for justifiable reasons. The contrast between the reference certificate and the suspect certificate is, in my submission, self-­evident, and suggests that the suspect certificate is a forgery.

Comparison with a specially-­created reference certificate

A special reference certificate was created for me by an expert in the use of mechanical typewriters. A blank form was created and Mr. Obama s details were entered line by line from the top of the form using a mechanical typewriter.

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As with the reporters copy , the vertical spacing was calibrated by reference to the pi in Kapiolani and, 37 characters later, the pi in Hospital . Vertical rules were carefully positioned exactly halfway between the p and the i in both places and the distance between them was measured as 12.2302 units. This measurement, divided by 37, gave the character width, which allowed precise placement of all other blue vertical rules using the architectural drawing program.

Horizontal rules were precisely positioned to coincide with the top and bottom printed form lines. The distance between them was measured as 14.8095 units. This value, divided by 11.5 boxes, gave the box height, allowing all other horizontal red rules to be positioned correctly. All horizontal red rules except the uppermost one were then copied upward in magenta by 0.25 units, the distance between the lowest red rule and the foot of the typed entry Wichita, Kansas .

The character-­spacing is precise throughout the form. There is insufficient perceptible irregularity anywhere to cause concern. The appearance is what one would expect where a mechanical typewriter had been used to complete the form.

The line-­spacing, however, shows a decreasing distance between the feet of the characters and the lower form-­rules as one moves up the form from the bottom. This decrease is sufficiently close to uniform to suggest a very slight and plausible mismatch between the line-­pitch of the typewriter and that of the printed form.

Had the White House document displayed characteristics such as those that are visible on the specially-­created reference certificate, there would have been little ground to suspect forgery on the basis of irregularities in the character spacing or line spacing.

As with the genuine reference certificate, the difference between the appearance of the typewritten entries on the specially-­created certificate and the reporters copy of the White House certificate is striking, reinforcing the suspicion that the White House certificate may not be a copy of a genuine document.

Conclusions

The striking contrast between the regularity of the character-­spacing and line-­spacing on the reference certificates and the inexplicable irregularities on the suspect document is not easy to explain by inadvertence.

The nature and positioning of the irregularities rules out parallax: and, though the genuine reference certificate is well worn, the regularity of its typed data entries is strikingly evident when compared with the suspect certificate.

Even the most inept novice clerk typing genuine data on to a form would have been unlikely to have produced such an untidy job of work as the suspect certificate by inadvertence. The nature of the errors is altogether incompatible with any rational method of entering typed data into the Hawaiian pre-­printed form.

If the errors enumerated earlier and listed in the table below were inadvertent, they were also independent of one another. In that event, the product of their individual probabilities falls to be taken as the probability that all of these independent irregularities might have occurred by inadvertence in a single certificate.

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Character or TABLE OF IRREGULARITIES line spacing

irregularity

#

Probability of inadvertent occurrence

Misalignment ~½ char. C1 1 in 10 Right-­ . C2 1 in 10

Some characters left-­shifted, some right-­shifted in box 5a C3 1 in 10 Left-­ ~1/3 char. C4 1 in 10

Misalignment of characters in box 5a compared with characters in box 17 C5 1 in 10 Right-­ C6 1 in 10

Variable elevation of text lines above their lower form-­rules L1 1 in 10 Elevation of almost all typed text lines too far above lower form-­rules L2 1 in 10

in check-­boxes L3 1 in 10 L4 1 in 10

Probability that all errors occurred simultaneously by inadvertence 1 in 10 bn In general whenever as here a document contains multiple irregularities and the individual probabilities of innocent occurrence are small and independent of one another, the probability that the suspect document is genuine will be very small. If each individual irregularity identified in this examination is expected to occur by inadvertence on one form in ten, and is independent of the other irregularitiess, the probability that all 10 irregularities might occur simultaneously and innocently in a single document is 1 in 10 billion, pointing to the near-­certainty that the White

Even in the extremely unlikely event that each irregularity identified here might occur by inadvertence as often as half the time, the probability that all irregularities occurred by inadvertence, and that the document is genuine, is less than 1 in 1000.

However, caution is prudent until further genuine birth certificates have been examined by the method demonstrated here, and until typewriter experts have reviewed both the method and the conclusions. For caution, one might assign a probability no greater than 1 in 20 to all of the character-­spacing irregularities taken together, and a probability no greater than 1 in 10 to all of the line-­spacing irregularities taken together. Since the character-­spacing and line-­spacing anomalies are plainly independent of one another if they are inadvertent, the probability that the suspect document is genuine cannot be greater than 1 in 200 on the basis of these irregularities alone. It is very likely to be considerably smaller than that.

An expert in the examination of typewritten documents should be asked to review this note and to give advice on whether the irregularities identified here by the application of a precise grid to the document under examination are indeed irregularities;; on whether they would be genuinely independent of each other if they had occurred inadvertently;; and on whether the probabilities of inadvertent occurrence that I have estimated here seem reasonable.

Viscount Monckton of Brenchley

Rannoch, June 2013

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Annex 1: The genuine certificate compared with the suspect document

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Annex 2: The specially-­created certificate compared with the suspect document

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Annex 3

Calibration of the geometric drawing program Autosketch 10

Autosketch 10 is a geometric drawing program capable of generating architectural and mathematical drawings to 7-­digit precision. For calibration, I selected 6-­digit precision, since no greater precision was necessary. First, I drew a circle 65.000000 units in diameter and inscribed the diameter, checking that the readouts indicated a radius of 32.500000 and a line-­length for the diameter of 65.000000. Taking one end A of the diameter as the center, I drew concentric circles of radius 16.000000, 25.000000, 33.000000 and 39.000000 and verified the readouts. Next, I drew lines from A to the points where the circles intersected the original circle, and verified the readouts to confirm that the lines were precisely equal in length to the radii. Then, from each intersection, I drew lines to the other end B of the diameter, and verified from the angle readouts that each of the four angles thus created was 90.000000 degrees in accordance with the diameter theorem. I also verified from the line-­63.000000, 60.000000, 56.000000 and 52.000000 units respectively. Next, I rotated the diameter through a right-­angle from A and verified from the angle readout that the angle was indeed 90.000000 degrees. I took the diagonal back to B and verified from the line-­length readout, again in accordance with Pyth

-­inquiry readout the offset at each end of the line to verify that it was 1.414214, the square root of 2. I concluded that the program was well calibrated and was functioning correctly.