Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers 1 Climate adaptation as normal business Steve Dovers Director, Fenner School of Environment & Society The Australian

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers 1

Climate adaptation as normal business

Steve DoversDirector, Fenner School of Environment & Society

The Australian National University

Charles Darwin SymposiumOctober 2011

IACCIUS Darwin Report (Li et al 2009) 2

EMU 9

EMU 17

EMU 23

EMU 11

EMU 12

EMU 14

EMU 20EMU 16

EMU 1

EMU 15

EMU 13

EMU 21

EMU 3

EMU 2

EMU 6

EMU 19

EMU 5

EMU 18

EMU 4

East Arm

Litchfield (S) - Pt A

Litchfield (S) - Pt B

City - Remainder

Lee Point-Leanyer Swamp

East Arm

Tiwi

Winnellie

Marrara

Fannie Bay Ludmilla

Durack

Leanyer

Malak

Karama

MoilMillner

City - Inner

Anula

Driver

Jingili

Brinkin

Alawa

Cox-Finniss

Wulagi

Parap

Nightcliff

Nakara

Gray

Palmerston (C) Bal

Larrakeyah

Rapid Creek

Stuart ParkThe Gardens

Bayview-Woolner

Wanguri

Cox-Finniss

Coconut Grove

Wagaman

Gunn-Palmerston CityPalmerston (C) Bal

Cox Peninsula (CGC)

Narrows

Cox-Finniss

0 52.5

Kilometres

±

LegendEMUs

SLAs

EMU analysis unitsRanking

1st (least vulnerable)

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

10th

11th

12th

13th

14th

15th

16th

17th

18th

19th (most vulnerable)

!

Darwin - Ranking of vulnerability to increasedtemperature and humidity

Derived from vulnerability assessment.This map should be used in conjunction withthe more detailed discussion in the text.It indicates areas where people and their surroundings in general may need additional preparation for changed climate conditions. Not all people or places in each area will be equally vulnerable e.g. low vulnerability places may have higher physical risk but be better able to cope.


Coverage

1. A “tipping point” in the climate debate.2. How big a challenge is adaptation?3. The state of adaptation literature and

policy.4. That climate change might be easier

than we think – some examples.5. Directions for research and policy.


Propositions

1.We are in danger of a policy and research trajectory around climate change adaptation that wastes time, reinvents wheels and ignores existing knowledge and capacities.

2.We might get 1/3 or even 2/3 towards world-best adaptation policy without thinking too hard or inventing anything new.


The real “tipping point” … in the climate change debate

• 20 years of mostly natural science – yes, it is happening, and some is locked in.

so we have to adapt.

• A question not just for science, but for social science and other knowledge systems

• … a difficult transition.


Adaptation vs. mitigation policy

• Mitigation – very difficult politically: but, given its root cause in modern economies (fossil energy use), with agreement and a target, amenable to ‘systemic’ policy interventions (ETS, tax, energy policy).

• Adaptation – newer issue, not amenable to systemic policy interventions: variation across impacts, jurisdictions, sectors, places. need varied and multiple policy interventions.

• .… mitigation is a diabolical policy problem, adaptation is a messy one.


Predicting policy impact

• Clear definitions of (un)certainty in climate science (IPCC), and a capacity to model and predict impact of major mitigation policy options (ETS, etc).

• Very little prospect of predicting the effectiveness of adaptation policy options:

eg. what likelihood a strategic policy assessment impacting on sectoral policy; or an education program causing behaviour change?

• A strong justification for no-regrets options – what we should be doing anyway.


State of literature & policy

• The adaptation policy literature:

• Strong on general ends, a lack of examples and models of adaptation, and little instruction on the policy means.

• A self-referencing climate literature, not drawing on: experience in relevant sectors eg. emergency management, NRM, public health. relevant disciplines eg. public policy, law, public administration, institutional theory.

……. stuff we already know.


State of policy debate:

• Similar… adaptation as a “new” policy problem. struggling for purchase and direction. firms, councils and communities confused.

• Not connecting to: existing practical, professional and academic knowledge and capacities. a long history of documented policy experience.

Dovers, SR and Hezri, AA (2010). Policy and institutional change: the means to the end of adaptation. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. 1: 212-31.


• Human societies have long been adapting to changes in climate, through science, institutions, policy, management, behaviour – especially extreme climate and weather events.

• Nowhere more so than in Australia – a highly variable climate – should be world’s best…

Adaptation: how hard, really?


Climate change: a simple typology

1. Not too dissimilar to existing variability over recent centuries, within institutional & societal memory, but to which we could adapt better. Up to 20C? Routine problems.

2. Significantly exacerbated variability – droughts, floods, cyclones, heatwaves, vector-borne diseases, etc – not outside lived and historical experience, but very challenging. Extremes become common. 2– 40C? Non-routine problems.

3. Change and variability beyond human experience and institutional memory, threatening productive base of societies, inundation of major cities, health of large parts of the population, economic stability, integrity of evolutionary processes, etc. Strong non-stationarity, extremes the norm. Over 40C? Complex, unbounded problems.

(Typology of disaster problems: Handmer J & Dovers S 2007 The handbook of emergency and disaster policies and institutions. Earthscan.


An optimistic proposition…

• Existing, evidenced proposals provide a basis for a climate adaptation response, certainly addressing level 1, and into level 2.

1/3 or even 2/3rds to a world’s best practice adaptation policy, without having to think hard?

• (Level 3 is another matter, but acting is better than not…)

• Six sectors – what should we be doing already and know how to do that would also serve to decrease vulnerability to climate change.


1. Water resource management

Water management = climate variability, in allocation for human consumption and for environmental values:

Full implementation of NWI = ability to cope with increased variability = world’s best practice in adaptation-friendly water policy.


2. Rural towns

Investigations of local and regional economic vulnerability produce familiar lists of strategies that should be pursued for other reasons:

Diversification of employment, niche market development, local skills training, increased collaboration amongst firms, better local socio-economic data…

Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on Urban Settlements reports – see http://fennerschool-research.anu.edu.au/iaccius/publications/


3: Biodiversity

The vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change would be addressed by familiar, existing proposals:

Landscape-wide approaches to vegetation management and connectivity, well resourced and managed reserve network, greater longevity & coordination of policy programs, comprehensive long term ecological monitoring…


4: Remote Indigenous communities

Impacts of climate change on health and well-being in remote communities suggests things we should do anyway:

Decent medical services, workable communication systems, standard education opportunities, support of local resource-based enterprises, housing …


5: Urban settlements

• Address past neglect of urban planning and energy reform -- correct existing idiocies:

• Wrongly oriented houses dependent on air-conditioning; private car reliance designed into the structure of cities; needlessly inefficient industrial processes; inadequate developer contributions; poor public transport, developing waterfronts…


6: Emergency management

The sharp end of climate adaptation, with well-known options…

Better cross-sectoral coordination; communications, community scale capacity, building standards, remote and regional livelihoods, urban planning that reduces rather than increases vulnerability, etc.

the unimplemented recommendations of numerous inquiries.

Implications for research…

• Reconsider the disciplinary mix to match the “tipping point” in debates – beyond science.

• Seek relevant, applicable but yet-to-be-engaged theory, methods, policy practice: eg: urban studies, social psychology, public health, emergency and disaster policy, natural resource management, public policy...

• Identify cases of existing adaptation, or of proposals with adaptation and other benefits.

19Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers

Implications for policy

1. An “audit” of existing and proposed policy options, coordinated across sectors for synergies – embed in normal business.

2. Matched with an audit of barriers to adaptation – a legislative and policy assessment process.

3. Regular strategic policy assessment to embed adaptation considerations in policy across all sectors.

4. A comprehensive data base and clearing house for information, data, examples – a chronic gap.

Dovers, S. 2006. Precautionary policy assessment for sustainability. In: Fisher et al (eds). Implementing the Precautionary Principle: Perspectives and Prospects. Edward Elgar.

20Charles Darwin Symposium 2011

Dovers

(In)conclusion

• Australia can get 1/3 or even 2/3 the way to world’s best climate adaptation without having to think too hard?

• … using many no-regrets options? • Climate adaptation = normal

business.

21Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers

IACCIUS Darwin Report (Li et al 2009) 22

EMU 9

EMU 17

EMU 23

EMU 11

EMU 12

EMU 14

EMU 20EMU 16

EMU 1

EMU 15

EMU 13

EMU 21

EMU 3

EMU 2

EMU 6

EMU 19

EMU 5

EMU 18

EMU 4

East Arm

Litchfield (S) - Pt A

Litchfield (S) - Pt B

City - Remainder

Lee Point-Leanyer Swamp

East Arm

Tiwi

Winnellie

Marrara

Fannie Bay Ludmilla

Durack

Leanyer

Malak

Karama

MoilMillner

City - Inner

Anula

Driver

Jingili

Brinkin

Alawa

Cox-Finniss

Wulagi

Parap

Nightcliff

Nakara

Gray

Palmerston (C) Bal

Larrakeyah

Rapid Creek

Stuart ParkThe Gardens

Bayview-Woolner

Wanguri

Cox-Finniss

Coconut Grove

Wagaman

Gunn-Palmerston CityPalmerston (C) Bal

Cox Peninsula (CGC)

Narrows

Cox-Finniss

0 52.5

Kilometres

±

LegendEMUs

SLAs

EMU analysis unitsSSZ

1st (least vulnerable)

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

10th

11th

12th

13th

14th

15th

16th

17th

18th

19th (most vulnerable)

!

Darwin - Ranking of vulnerability to increased storm surge risk

Derived from vulnerability assessment tables.This map should be used in conjunction withthe more detailed vulnerability summary tables.It indicates areas where people and their surroundings in general may need additional preparation for changed climate conditions. Not all people or places in each area will be equally vulnerable (ie low vulnerability places may have higher physical risk but be better able to cope,and high vulnerability places may not bevulnerable to all impacts).

Documents

Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers 1 Climate adaptation as normal business Steve Dovers Director, Fenner School of Environment & Society The Australian