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CHELAN-DOUGLAS COUNTIES
2018 ECONOMIC PROFILE
CENTER OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH
CENTER OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH • 3
[email protected] • 360-650-3909
2 • ABOUT THIS REPORT
[email protected] • 360-650-3909
We begin with the county demographics to provide a starting point for further discussions about data found in this profile. Since 2010, Chelan’s population has grown 6.3 percent, comparable to the national rate of 6 percent. Douglas’ population growth has been more rapid, increasing 11.7 percent over the same period, a rate that is closer to the 12.1 percent growth rate of Washington State. Given Douglas’ small population, this faster expansion could push it to closer resemble Chelan in size. Considering its rurality, the Chelan-Douglas region’s low median household and per capita incomes and higher poverty rate than both Washington and the US are not surprising. Many rural counties still have not seen the post-recession recovery in labor markets that have been noted in suburbs and cities.
County Demographics
Chelan County
Douglas County Washington
UnitedStates
Population
Population estimates, July 1, 2018 77,036 42,907 7,535,591 327,167,434
Population estimates base, April 1, 2010 72,460 38,427 6,724,540 308,758,105
Population, percent change - April 1, 2010 (estimates base) to July 1, 2018
6.3% 11.7% 12.1% 6.0%
Population, Census, April 1, 2010 72,753 38,431 6,724,540 308,745,538
Labor Force
In civilian labor force, total, percent of population age 16 years+, 2013-2017
61.0% 61.6% 63.4% 63.0%
In civilian labor force, female, percent of population age 16 years+, 2013-2017
55.3% 55.6% 58.3% 58.2%
Income and Poverty
Median household income (in 2017 dollars), 2013-2017 $54,975 $55,805 $66,174 $57,652
Per capita income in past 12 months (in 2016 dollars), 2013-2017
$27,605 $25,060 $34,869 $31,177
Persons in poverty, percent 13.3% 13.4% 11.0% 12.3%Source: US Census
About this ReportThe following report is intended to give a basic overview of the local economy while illustrating factors that may impact it. Unless otherwise stated, the data in this report is the most recent complete annual data for the region, which at the time of publication is 2018.
About the Authors The Center for Economic and Business Research is an outreach center at Western Washington University located within the College of Business and Economics. The Center connects the resources found throughout the University to assist for-profit, non-profit, government agencies, quasi-government entities, and tribal communities in gathering and analyzing useful data. We use a number of collaborative approaches to help inform our clients so that they are better able to hold policy discussions and craft decisions.
The Center employs students, staff and faculty from across the University as well as outside resources to meet the individual needs of those we work with. Our work is based on academic approaches and rigor that not only provides a neutral analysis perspective but also provides applied learning opportunities. We focus on developing collaborative relationships with our clients and not simply delivering an end product.
The approaches we utilize are insightful, useful, and are all a part of the debate surrounding the topics we explore; however, none are absolutely fail-safe. Data, by nature, is challenged by how it is collected and how it is leveraged with other data sources; following only one approach without deviation is ill-advised. We provide a variety of insights within our work – not only on the topic at hand but the resources (data) that inform that topic.
The Center for Economic and Business Research is directed by Hart Hodges, Ph.D. and James McCafferty.
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CENTER OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH • 5
[email protected] • 360-650-3909
4 • EMPLOYMENT DATA
[email protected] • 360-650-3909
In 2018, Chelan’s annual unemployment rate was 4.5 percent. In Douglas, unemployment was 5.3 percent; both rates decreased from 2017. Management of companies and enterprises had the highest average annual wages in 2018 at $76,957, while educational services had the lowest at $12,162.
In 2018, 44,024 of the 60,268 people that worked in either Chelan or Douglas lived within the region. 16,254 people commuted to Chelan-Douglas for work. 4,822 people lived in Chelan County but worked elsewhere, while 11,903 people from Douglas County commuted out of the region.
Chelan County’s commute increased from 18.4 minutes in 2017 to 18.6 in 2018. Meanwhile, Douglas’ decreased from 18.6 to 18.2 minutes. Both were slightly shorter than the state average of 23.2 minutes. San Juan and Mason Counties represent the shortest and longest commutes respectively at 14.9 and 32.1 minutes.
Industry subsectors 2018 Q2 FirmsTotal
annual wages paid
Average employment
Average annual wage
Management of companies and enterprises 6 $3,240,323 38 $85,272
Healthcare and social assistance 488 $367,099,678 6169 $59,507
Utilities 9 $547,534 10 $54,753
Finance and insurance 78 $35,151,423 657 $53,503
Government 95 $369,372,909 6911 $53,447
Wholesale trade 107 $115,080,194 2263 $50,853
Construction 409 $83,339,788 1718 $48,510
Professional and technical services 197 $41,218,791 875 $47,107
Information 38 $17,972,740 398 $45,158
Manufacturing 128 $77,431,691 1845 $41,968
Transportation and warehousing 51 $15,752,385 436 $36,129
Administrative and waste services 152 $36,052,823 1027 $35,105
Not Elsewhere Classified 15 $2,144,348 68 $31,535
Other services, except public administration 202 $24,028,817 806 $29,812
Retail trade 318 $127,585,070 4386 $29,089
Real estate and rental and leasing 119 $16,117,504 563 $28,628
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 527 $275,289,498 10418 $26,424
Accommodation and food services 302 $95,594,657 4690 $20,383
Arts, entertainment, and recreation 54 $8,986,718 542 $16,581
Educational services 28 $1,513,664 100 $15,137
Total 3322 $1,713,520,555 43920 $39,015
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Source: Washington State ESD
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Mason County
Chelan County
Douglas County
San Juan County
Mean Commute Time (Minutes)
Source: JobsEQ
57%
21%
22%
Chelan-Douglas Counties Labor Force
Live & work in Chelan-Douglas Only work in Chelan-Douglas Only live in Chelan-Douglas
Source: JobsEQ
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Unemployment Rate
Chelan County Douglas County Washington State
CENTER OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH • 7
[email protected] • 360-650-3909
6 • CONSTRUCTION AND REAL ESTATE
Median Resale Price
2015 2016 2017 2018
Chelan County 6.8% 12.3% 10.1% 8.4%
Douglas County -1.6% 16.6% 5.1% 10.8%
Washington State 10.2% 10.3% 8.8% 1.1%
Building Permits Annual Percent Change
2015 2016 2017 2018
Chelan County 67.6% na 9.9% 8.1%
Douglas County 0.0% na 6.7% 6.2%
Washington State 25.1% 86.2% 7.9% -13.7%
All Sales Annual Change
2015 2016 2017 2018
Chelan County 108.5% 15.3% -1.0% -2.0%
Douglas County 103.8% 38.0% 0.0% 14.3%
Washington State -6.3% 24.6% 7.1% -3.0%
Average Apartment Rent
2015 2016 2017 2018
Chelan-Douglas Counties
4.7% 30.1% -13.6% 20.9%
Washington State 8.5% 9.5% 4.4% 8.5%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Chelan-Douglas Counties Washington State
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Chelan County Douglas County Washington State
While Washington State and Chelan County maintained slow house resale price growth, Douglas County exhibited an uptick in growth, more than doubling the annual rate of change from 2017. Washington and Chelan County reflect the slowing national housing market, whereas Douglas County presents anomalous results.
Building permits often fluctuate significantly, due in part to a small denominator which makes even small changes look large. Year-over-year growth in building permits slowed between 2016 and 2017 at a statewide level, with negative growth in 2018. Growth rates have remained fairly constant between 2016 and 2018 in Chelan and Douglas Counties.
Building Permits Annual Percent Change
Median House Resale Price
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Chelan County Douglas County Washington State
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Chelan County Douglas County Washington State
In 2018, both Washington State and Chelan County exhibited minimal change in growth of total housing sales at -2 percent and -3 percent, respectively. Douglas presented a 14.3 percent growth rate in 2018, up from growth in the previous year, meaning that sales are increasing at a faster rate than the prior year.
Average apartment rents have been especially volatile in recent years for Chelan and Douglas Counties, with a decline of -13.6 percent in 2017. Washington State rent growth as a whole has remained fairly constant. The significant drop in apartment rent growth was reversed in 2018 with a growth rate of 20.9 percent for the counties.
All Housing Sales Annual Change
Average Apartment Rent
Source: UW Runstad Department of Real [email protected] • 360-650-3909
Nearly a quarter of all jobs in the Wenatchee MSA are in the Agriculture sector,
but, due to their seasonal nature, only account for 16.1% of total wage income
Private health services provided 21.4% of all wage income, while
accounting for 14% of jobs
Pangborn Memorial Airport had a record amount of passengers in themml summer of 2018
The region produces enough apples to make 5,755 apple pies per capita, or to �ll 118.33 Olympic swimming pools with apple sauce
The Wenatchee district grows 45% of PNW sweet cherries, 85% of Washintgon’swinter pears and 25% of the State’s apples
With a depth of 1,486 ft, Lake Chelan is the 3rd deepest lake in the country,
and 26th deepest in the world
12
34
56
78
910
1112
CENTER OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH • 11
[email protected] • 360-650-3909
10 • RETAIL SALES
[email protected] • 360-650-3909
$10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000 $22,000 $24,000 $26,000 $28,000 $30,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
All Taxable Retail Sales Per Capita
Douglas County Chelan County Washington State
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Taxable Sales in Top Sectors
Construction Wholesale Retail
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Taxable Retail Sales(In millions)
Douglas County Total Chelan County Total
Chelan County’s total taxable retail sales for 2018 were twice those of Douglas County. Since 2009, Douglas County’s sales have increased by 112 percent and Chelan County’s have increased by 66 percent.
Between 2017 and 2018, the retail and wholesale trade sectors saw a decrease in their share of total taxable sales. Construction, on the other hand, now makes up approximately 21 percent of total taxable sales.
Both Chelan and Douglas have seen higher per capita retail sales than the state. This is to be expected in counties with small populations and cities, like Wenatchee, with strong retail sectors.
$- $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 $10,000
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Was
hing
ton
Stat
e
Chel
an-D
ougl
as C
ount
ies
Gross Business Income(In millions)
Chelan Douglas Washington State
Chelan County has more retail than Douglas, resulting in a higher GBI. In 2018, GBI in Chelan grew by $174 million, which is lower than its five year average of $318 million. Douglas grew by $63 million, which is on par with its five year average of $60 million.
Washington State experienced a sharp increase in out of state and foreign sales in 2018. Chelan and Douglas Counties, increased by $15 million, compared to an average annual growth of $35 million over the prior three years.
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Out of State/Foreign Sales(In millions)
In 2018, Chelan and Douglas Counties produced approximately three gallons of wine per capita, whereas Washington produced double that amount with six gallons per capita. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Wine Production (Gallons Per Capita)
Chelan-Douglas Counties Washington State
Source: Washington State Department of Revenue
CENTER OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH • 13
[email protected] • 360-650-3909
12 • EDUCATION PERFORMANCE
[email protected] • 360-650-3909
2015-16 Academic Year Statistics
Enrolled in Washington Enrolled Out of State Total
DistrictTotal
(In State) Public 4 yr Private 4 yr Public 2 yr Private 2 yr
Total(Out of State)
Public 4 yr Private 4 yr Public 2 yr Private 2 yr HS Graduates% Going to
College
Bridgeport 90-100% 11-19% 0-10% 70-79% 0-10% 0-10% 0-10% 0-10% 0-10% 0-10% 62 35-39%
Camas 74% 31% 4% 39% 0-1% 26% 10% 13% 3% 0-1% 471 66%
Cascade 85-89% 30-34% 0-5% 50-54% 0-5% 10-14% 6-9% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 109 60-64%
Cashmere 90-94% 30-34% 0-5% 55-59% 0-5% 6-9% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 101 60-64%
Eastmont 93% 32% 3% 59% 0-2% 7% 0-2% 3% 0-2% 0-2% 426 54%
Entiat 80-100% 60-79% 0-20% 21-39% 0-20% 0-20% 0-20% 0-20% 0-20% 0-20% 21 50-59%
Grand Coulee Dam
80-89% 40-49% 0-10% 30-39% 0-10% 20-29% 11-19% 0-10% 0-10% 0-10% 40 50-59%
Lake Chelan 85-89% 50-54% 0-5% 35-39% 0-5% 10-14% 6-9% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 110 55-59%
Manson 80-100% 21-39% 0-20% 60-79% 0-20% 0-20% 0-20% 0-20% 0-20% 0-20% 30 50-59%
Wenatchee 93% 30% 2% 60% 0-1% 7% 3% 4% 0-1% 0-1% 540 60%
Statewide 82% 33% 5% 44% 0-1% 18% 8% 8% 2% 0-1% 69163 59% Source: Education Research & Data Center
Source: Education Research & Data Center Source: Education Research & Data Center
With the exception of Bridgeport School District, the Chelan-Douglas region has a similar secondary education enrollment rate to the rest of Washington at about 60 percent. Bridgeport reported a 35-39 percent enrollment rate in 2016. Upwards of 90 percent of students from Chelan-Douglas elected to stay in state, which is higher than the state average of 82 percent.
34%
30%
19%
17%
Out of State Destinations of Chelan-Douglas High School Students
(By School Type)
Public 4yr Private 4yr Public 2yr Private 2yr
0
50
100
150
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Chelan-Douglas Student Enrollment in Postsecondary Education by County of Origin
TESC (Evergreen State) EWU CWU WSU UW WWU
Of all the students from Chelan-Douglas that enrolled in secondary education within Washington regardless of the year they graduated, the majority attended WWU, then UW, WSU, CSU, EWU, and TESC (Evergreen State).
CENTER OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH • 15
[email protected] • 360-650-3909
14 • REGIONAL COST OF LIVING
[email protected] • 360-650-3909
The cost of living indices provide a way to compare the costs of groceries, housing, utilities, transportation, healthcare, and other miscellaneous living costs between regions. A composite index of 100 indicates that the region has the same cost of living as the national average. In 2018, the cost of living in the Chelan-Douglas region was 110—above the national average. Compared to nearby counties like Skagit and Whatcom, however, Chelan-Douglas’ cost of living is relatively low. In neighboring King and Snohomish counties, composite costs are significantly higher due in large part to high housing costs.
Living wages are calculated by finding the point at which one-third of a worker’s total income is allocated to housing costs. For 2018, the minimum living wage was $21 per hour for a one bedroom apartment. Interestingly, the most costly lifestyle examined is associated with those renting a two bedroom apartment, with a minimum household wage of $28 per hour needed. The median household income in Chelan and Douglas for 2018 was about $55,000—enough to afford all median lifestyles. With minimum wage sitting at $13.50 an hour, a two-income household earning minimum wage can afford to rent a one-bedroom unit or a median home mortgage.
Note: Home purchase assumes 20% as down payment, 4% interest and is displayed as principal and interest only.
Regional Cost of Living 2018Composite Grocery Housing Utilities Transportation Healthcare Misc.
Goods and Services
Chelan-Douglas
110 108 121 77 116 120 106
Whatcom 116 108 127 87 121 121 115
Skagit 113 121 114 87 114 120 116
King 155 127 213 111 135 124 137
Washington 107 107 107 94 116 118 106
Living Wage (Chelan-Douglas Counties)
Housing Type Rate Required household hourly wage
Required household weekly wage
Rent 1 bedroom $1,143 $21 $857
Rent 2 bedroom $1,474 $28 $1,106
Median home mortgage $1,279 $24 $959
Source: UW Runstad Department of Real Estate and CEBR
Source: C2ER and bestplaces.net*Snohomish data estimated using King County and data from bestplaces.net for reference
16 • CHELAN-DOUGLAS COUNTIES ECONOMIC PROFILE
[email protected] • 360-650-3909
We are always seeking opportunities to bring the strengths of Western Washington University to fruition within our region. If you have a need for
analysis work or comments on this report, we encourage you to contact us at 360-650-3909. To learn more about CEBR visit us online at cebr.wwu.edu