Cheltenham Festival Winning Profiles 2016 - Against the CrowdThe Profile of a Supreme Novice Hurdle winner The Cheltenham Festival gets underway with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Cheltenham Festival

Winning Profiles 2016

(Races to be run Tuesday 15th March to Friday 18th March)

www.againstthecrowd.co.uk

http://www.againstthecrowd.co.uk/

Key trends point to Festival winners

The Cheltenham Festival represents the pinnacle of National Hunt racing. The G1 races that take place at the venue every March are designed to find the best horses in specific divisions of the jump racing game. The Champion Hurdle run on the Tuesday is designed to find the best 2 mile hurdler. The Queen Mother Champion Chase is designed to find the best horse over the bigger obstacles at the minimum distance of 2 miles. The race is run on the Wednesday of the Festival. On Thursday Cheltenham Stages the World Hurdle designed to find the best staying hurdler over a trip of 3 miles. Thursday also plays host to the Ryanair Chase - a race which has become a Championship event for chasers specialising in a trip of 2 miles and 5 furlongs. On the Friday of the Festival, we have the Gold Cup - the staying chasers' Championship event run over 3 miles and 2 furlongs. In between we have big G1 races for novice hurdlers and novice chasers over a variety of distances. Even the mares and the bumper horses get a championship event to call their own. These races are difficult to read. All the major horses – at least those which are fit - tend to show up. All the major yards are represented. Every single runner is trying. The championship races are invariably run at a red hot pace and this, in combination with the specific demands of the track, means that only horses at the top of their game, horses tuned to the moment and horses in receipt of luck in running can prevail on the day. A horse can run the race of its life at the Cheltenham Festival – and it can still get beaten. So how do we solve these betting puzzles? It's never ‘easy’ to solve these races - but fortunately help is at hand - in the form of historical evidence. Over the years specific types of horses tend to come out on top time and time in the same races. They share certain characteristics. They have similar qualifications and credentials. They have achieved similar things. Their careers and campaigns have been constructed around common themes.

Conversely, horses who fail to meet the criteria laid down by these longstanding trends tend to fall short. Trends will not always point you directly to a winner. But they will help you split a field into the horses who fit the winning trends most closely and those who match them least. And trends can help you reach betting decisions. No horse will meet every trend in every race. But we can take a subjective view and weigh up one thing against another. We can figure out which trends we think are most important against what else we know. We might discard some trends. Where some trends are concerned we might forgive a horse for not meeting the criteria – for whatever reason. The point I’m making is that trends are instructive and can direct and focus the way we look at or get into or go about finding angles on specific races. In this report you will find comprehensive stats for 12 of the top G1 races set to

be run at this season’s Cheltenham Festival. I call these documents Winning Race

Profiles – and they are part of the approach I take to finding value bets in the big

races.

These Winning Race Profiles are a useful tool. That’s why I compile them. That’s

why I keep them up to date year on year. That’s why I use them – alongside my

other methods – in my own analysis of the big races. And that’s why I’m handing

them over to you.

They don’t represent some kind of magic winner-finding system. It isn’t a case of

A + B + C + D = winner. But it is good data – much of which you won’t find

elsewhere.

Take a look at the key stats for any of the individual races. Isolate those that seem

strongest or most important. Then measure the horses set to go to post in this

season’s renewal against that statistical checklist. See how they measure up as

potential candidates.

It’s a very instructive process – at the end of which, at the very least, you will have

very clear ideas on the strengths and potential flaws in each of the horses set to

run. That’s the kind of information and insight that large portions of the market is

completely unaware of. Considering those are the people you are betting against, it

is clear that the information contained in our Winning Race Profiles delivers a very

real knowledge edge.

What next? There is no standard right or wrong way forward. It is a case of each to

his own. Some of my readers back the top scorer on the Profile. That’s fine.

Personally, I use my Winning Race Profiles as a value-finding tool. I am always

most interested in the horses that tick a lot of the Profile boxes but which are

being overlooked by the wider market.

I’m a contrarian punter. That’s the way I play. How you use the information is

pretty much up to you. All I hope is that you find the information useful – and if

you use it to bag a winner at this year’s Festival, then so much the better. Let us

know how you get on.

Best wishes

Nick Pullen

February 2016

The Profile of a Supreme Novice Hurdle winner

The Cheltenham Festival gets underway with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – a race

for the best young hurdlers around and one that is generally won by a horse

destined for a career at the top of the jumps game. This is a big field affair with an

average of 19 runners per year since 1997.

The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is a Grade 1 event contested over the extended 2 mile trip and 8 flights on Cheltenham’s Old course. The race is open to horses aged 4 and older. The 4yo runners carry 11-00 with the older runners carrying 11-07. Mares benefit from a 7lb allowance.

Yards with form – Willie Mullins has produced 5 winners of this race since 1995

– including each of the last 3 renewals. Nicky Henderson hasn’t managed a

winner this century but is probably due – having saddled 10 placed horses over

that period. Paul Nicholls and Noel Meade have saddled two winners apiece

since 2000. Good yards with the best ammunition tend to prevail. Philip Hobbs

has a winner and two places from his last 11 participants.

In the plate – Ruby Walsh has been the dominant force in the saddle over recent

years. He has won the race 5 times and placed once since the turn of the century.

Market pointers – Twelve of the last 18 winners came out of the front 3 in

the market. But there is generally something for the fans of bigger-priced horses

to shoot for with 22 of the last 45 winners and placed horses going off at double-

figure SPs.

I’ve studied the last 18 renewals of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and I’ve identified a

series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and

the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….

Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent renewals)….

17 of the last 18 winners had won at least 50% of their hurdle races

17 had never finished outside the first 3 in a completed hurdle race

17 had scored career best RPR in one of last 2 races

17 had scored career best RPR over hurdles at trips between 16f and 18f

16 had won multiple hurdle races

16 had won last time out (12 had won their last 2 starts over hurdles)

16 had scored a career best RPR over hurdles of 137+ (10 of the last 12 winners had scored 142+)

16 had a Dosage Profile with a CD figure of 0.31 or less. Get the CD figures for this season’s runners here: http://www.pedigreequery.com/

15 had scored a career-best Topspeed rating of 100+ over hurdles

15 had raced between 2 and 4 times over hurdles

15 of the last 18 winners had won a hurdle race in a field of 11 or more

15 of the last 18 winners were aged 5- or 6-years-old

14 had raced in the last 6 weeks – give or take a day or two

14 of the last 18 winners were bred in Ireland or Great Britain

14 were sent off favourite in their final prep race

12 of the last 14 winners had contested a hurdle race worth more than £10k

11 of the last 12 winners had raced no more than 9 times in total (flat, NHF or hurdle races)

8 of the last 12 winners had contested a G1 or G2 hurdle race (7 produced a top 3 finish)

8 of the last 9 winners to race over hurdles at 18f+ had won at that trip

Just one of the last 18 winners had run in a handicap hurdle race

There have been 2 winning mares in the last 18 years

Apply those statistical tests to all the runners set to go to post in this season’s

renewal of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. The strongest scorers are of most interest

from a betting perspective….

On the morning of the race itself….

This season’s edition of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle will be run on Tuesday 15th

March.

If you are a subscriber to our service for this season’s Cheltenham Festival, we will

be in your email in-box first thing on the morning of the race with our analysis of

the runners and prevailing conditions, our take on the horses best-qualified to put

up a big run and our betting advice for the race including, as per usual, our

CONTRARIAN PICKS – our idea of the best value-for-money bets at the

prices.

The Profile of an Arkle Challenge Trophy winner

http://www.pedigreequery.com/

Next up for the Winning Profile treatment on Day 1 of the Festival is the Arkle

Challenge Trophy – the leading chase for novices on the NH fixture calendar. This

race is often a strong guide for the following season’s Champion Chase – the

Championship event for chasers in the 2-mile division. There have been one or

two small fields for this in recent times – with heavily-fancied horses scaring plenty

of possible participants away – but generally 10+ runners go to post.

The Arkle Challenge Trophy is a Grade 1 chase contested over the 2 mile trip and 12 fences on Cheltenham’s Old course. The race is open to horses aged 5 and older. Weights are set at 11-04. Mares benefit from the 7lb allowance.

Yards with form – Nicky Henderson’s last 13 runners in this event have yielded

3 winners and 4 placed horses. Alan King’s last half a dozen runners have

produced 2 wins between them. Since the turn of the century Paul Nicholls and

Philip Hobbs have also produced multiple contenders who won or got

competitive. Once again it is the yards known for being in possession of quality

ammunition that have produced the best results.

Bloodlines of note – The last 5 runners sired by King’s Theatre produced a win

and two placed efforts.

In the plate – Given the right horse Barry Geraghty knows exactly how to win

this race with his last 13 rides producing 4 winners and 3 additional placed

finishers. Richard Johnson’s last 9 rides produced a winner and 2 placed

finishers.

Market pointers – Eleven of the last 18 winners came out of the front 3 in the

market. Just 13 of the last 43 winners and placed horses were sent off at double-

figure SPs. The more fancied horses tend to run up to their odds.

I’ve studied the last 18 renewals of the Arkle Challenge Trophy and I’ve identified a




All of the last 18 winners had won at least one chase (13 were multiple winners)

17 of the last 18 winners had won at least one of last two completed chases

17 had not finished outside 1st 2 in any completed chase that season

16 were aged 5- to 7-years-old

16 had finished 1st or 2nd over fences last time out (13 won)

16 of the last 18 winners scored career-best chasing RPR in last completed chase

16 had been off the track at least 21 days

16 had never fallen or unseated in a chase

15 had a strike rate of 50%+ over fences (9 were unbeaten in chases)

15 had raced 2 to 4 times over fences

10 of the last 12 winners had already scored a career-best chasing RPR of 154+

15 of the 16 previous winners to race at least twice over fences had scored a career best chasing RPR of 144+ (12 of the 13 to race at least 3 times over fences had scored an RPR of 150+)

14 had scored a best Topspeed rating of 134+

14 had won at 17f+ over fences (10 had won at 18f+)

13 (incl. 8 of the last 10) had contested a G1 or G2 chase (all producing a top 2 finish and 8 doing so more than once)

13 of the last 15 winners had been officially rated 142+ over hurdles at one time or another

12 had contested a G1 or G2 chase over 16f or 17f

12 had experience at Cheltenham over fences or hurdles (10 producing a top 3 finish)

11 of the last 18 winners had scored career-best chasing RPR at trips of 17f+

9 had appeared at a previous Festival (7 had won or placed)

9 of the last 12 winners had contested a G1 or G2 chase last time out

7 of the last 8 winners had contested bumpers earlier in career

4 of the last 8 winners had placed in a novice hurdle event at the previous year’s Festival

None of the last 18 winners had ever contested a handicap chase

That’s a strong Winning Profile with plenty of highly-instructive stats enabling you

to zero-in on the best-credentialed horses in this season’s edition of the Arkle

Challenge Trophy….


This season’s edition of the Arkle Challenge Trophy will be run on Tuesday 15th

March.






prices.

The Profile of a Champion Hurdle winner

The Champion Hurdle is the feature race on the opening day of the Festival – the

Championship event for the hurdlers. Faugheen will be looking to defend his

crown. We can usually rely on a double-figure field going to post for this – with a

really big field now and again.

The Champion Hurdle is a Grade 1 event run over the extended 2 mile trip and 8 flights on Cheltenham’s Old course. The race is open to horses aged 4 and older. The 4yos carry 11-02 whilst the older horses must shoulder 11-10. Fillies and mares benefit from the standard 7lb allowance.

Yards with form – Nicky Henderson has won the race 5 times in total. His last

23 participants have generated 2 wins and 7 additional placed finishes. Willie

Mullins has been the star-man over the last few years. His last 15 runners have

produced 3 winners and 3 placed finishers.

Bloodlines of note – It is worth noting that horses sired by Oscar seem

particularly suited to the test this race presents. His last 6 runners have produced a

winner and 3 additional horses that hit the frame.

In the plate – The top jockeys have enjoyed most success in this event in recent

times. Barry Geraghty has partnered two winners and 3 placed horses from 12

rides. Ruby Walsh has ridden 3 winners and 4 placed horses from 14 rides. For

sure, the top jockeys get the best rides – but they get them for a reason.

Market pointers – Where the championship races are concerned, this is the race

where I’m happiest to look for a horse down the prices. Nine of the winners over

the last 18 years came from out of the top 3 in the market – 6 won at double-

figure SPs.

I’ve studied the last 18 renewals of the Champion Hurdle and I’ve identified a series

of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the

best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….


All of the last 18 winners had raced at least 5 times over hurdles (15 had raced at least 10 times)

17 had appeared on the track since Christmas

17 had already run over hurdles at Cheltenham (15 registering a top 3 finish)

16 had scored a Racing Post rating of 156+ at 16f or 17f

16 had a winning strike rate of 33%+ over hurdles

16 had a strike rate of 40%+ over hurdles at 16f or 17f

16 had raced no more than 20 times over hurdles

16 had scored a top 4 finish at the previous season’s Festival

16 had won a hurdle race in a field of 15+ runners

15 of the last 18 winners were aged 6- to 8-years-old

15 had appeared in a G1 hurdle race that season

15 had scored a career-best RPR over hurdles of 160+

15 had scored an RPR of 160+ in one of last 3 hurdle races

15 had scored a career-best Topspeed rating over hurdles of 150+

15 had raced over hurdles at 18f+ (13 registering a win)

14 had run 3 or 4 times over hurdles that season

14 had won last time out

14 had not been outside the first 3 in any completed hurdle race that term

14 had won either a G1 or a G2 hurdle race that season

12 had scored 154+ at a trip beyond 17f

10 of the last 12 winners had a won a G1 over hurdles at 16f or 17f

9 of the last 12 winners had hit the top 3 in a hurdle race worth £40k+ that season

9 of the last 12 winners had won a hurdle race worth £58k+ at one time or another

Horses that best-measure up to the blueprint can be considered strong contenders

in this season’s renewal. And if you can find a contender at a juicy price then that’s

all the better….


This season’s edition of the Champion Hurdle will be run on Tuesday 15th March.






prices.

The Profile of a Neptune Novice’s Hurdle winner

We move on to Day 2 of the meeting and the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle which is an

event for the up-and-coming middle-distance hurdlers. We generally get a good

field for this – with an average of 16 going to post since 1997.

This is a Grade 1 race contested over 2 miles and 5 furlongs and 10 flights on Cheltenham’s Old course. The race is open to horses aged 4 and older. Weights are set at 10-13 for the 4yo runners. The older horses carry 11-07. Fillies and mares benefit from the standard 7lb allowance.

Yards with form – Willie Mullins has the best recent record of current trainers

with 3 winners and 6 additional placed finishers from his last 17 runners. Runners

saddled by his Irish compatriots, Noel Meade and Mouse Morris, are worth

running the rule over. They have decent records in this too. Of the Brit contingent

Nigel Twiston-Davies shows the way with 2 winners and a place since 2000.

Bloodlines of note – Oscar sires more than his fair share of top-class hurdlers

and his progeny do well in this event. His last 8 runners produced a win and 3

frame finishes. Presenting progeny go well too. His last 10 participants produced

a win and 2 places.

In the plate – Ruby Walsh is the man in the weighing room with the best recent

record in this race. Combining with runners trained by Willie Mullins and Paul

Nicholls his record reads 3 wins and 5 places from his last 14 rides in the race.

Market pointers – 11 of the last 18 winners came out of the front 3 in the market.

Just 3 winners over the period were sent off at odds greater than 17/2. The top 5

in the betting is where the winner is generally found.

I’ve studied the last 18 renewals of the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle and I’ve identified a




All of the last 18 winners had won at least one hurdle race

17 were aged 5- or 6-years-old

17 had raced since Christmas

16 had raced at least twice over hurdles

16 had raced no more than 5 times over hurdles

16 had raced no more than 11 times in total (flat, NHF or hurdles)

16 previous winners had raced over hurdles more than once and all had scored a career-best RPR of 145+ (13 of that 16 had scored career-best RPR last time out)

16 of the last 18 winners had raced at 18f+ (all of that 16 had scored a win at 18f+ and 14 of that 16 had scored an RPR of 144+ at those kinds of trip)

15 were operating at a strike rate of 50%+ over hurdles

15 had never been outside the first 2 in a completed hurdle race

15 had scored a top 2 finish in a G1 or G2 race during the current season

13 won last time out (4 that didn’t finished 2nd)

13 of the previous 18 winners had raced in National Hunt Flat races

11 of the last 12 winners had a Dosage Profile with a CD figure of 0.33 or lower. Get the CD figures for this year’s runners here: http://www.pedigreequery.com/

10 of the last 12 winners contested a Grade standard race last time out

Not quite as many clear-cut pointers as I would like but the previous 18 renewals

do provide a few strong pointers to help sort the wheat from the chaff….


This season’s edition of the NIM Hurdle will be run on Wednesday 16th March.






prices.


The Profile of an RSA Chase winner

We move onto the RSA Chase – something of a championship event for up-and-

coming staying novice chasers. Several previous winners subsequently won the

Gold Cup – Bobs Worth and Lord Windermere being the most recent examples.

In more years than not since 1997 we’ve seen a double-figure field go to post.

The RSA Chase is a Grade 1 contest run over the extended 3 mile trip and 19 fences on Cheltenham’s Old course. The race is open to horses aged 5 and older. The 5yo runners carry 11-03. The older runners carry 11-04. Mares benefit from the standard 7lb allowance.

Yards with form – Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins – the

major yards in recent times – regularly find the right horse for this race.

Henderson has a record of 2 winners and 3 additional placed horses from his last

11 entrants. Nicholls is 2 winners and two places from his last 15 runners.

Mullins has registered 3 wins and 3 additional frame finishers from the last 17

participants he’s sent into the event.

Bloodlines of note – Accordion’s progeny are worth noting if and when they

run. Of the last 5 runners to fly his flag one won and the other 4 hit the frame.

Presenting is another name to note. The last 10 of his progeny to go to post

produced 2 wins and 3 placed finishes.

In the plate – Barry Geraghty, Ruby Walsh and Richard Johnson all have

decent records in this race in terms of wins and places – a case maybe of the big

names getting the best rides when it boils down to it.

Market pointers – The historic record offers some encouragement to punters like

me who like to bet horses at a decent price – 10 of the last 18 winners went off at

SPs between 13/2 and 33/1.

I’ve studied the last 18 renewals of the RSA Chase and I’ve identified a series of key

statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets

in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….


All of the last 18 winners had won at least on chase

17 had scored career-best chasing RPR in one of last 2 races

17 had been off the track between 3 and 6 weeks

16 were bred in Ireland (the other 2 in France)

16 had finished 1st or 2nd last time out

16 had never finished outside the first 3 in any completed chase

15 of the last 18 winners were aged 6- or 7-years-old

15 had run over fences 3 to 5 times

15 had run no more than 15 times in total

15 of the 17 for whom data exists had a Dosage Profile with a CD figure of 0.33 or less. Get the DI figures for this season’s field here: http://www.pedigreequery.com/

15 of the 17 for whom data exists had a sire with a Stamina Index figure of 12.0+

14 had run at 24f with 11 producing a win (of the 4 that hadn’t run at 3 miles+ 3 had won at the longest trip encountered over fences)

All of the last 12 winners had contested a G1 or a G2 that term (10 producing at least one top 2 finish)

11 of the last 12 winners had scored a career-best RPR of 150+ over fences (10 hitting that standard last time out)

10 of the last 11 winners had experience of Cheltenham – be it over fences, hurdles or in bumpers

10 of the last 12 winners had a Dosage Profile with DI figure less than 1.00. Get the DI figures for this season’s field here: http://www.pedigreequery.com/

9 of the last 12 winners had appeared at the previous season’s Festival (5 finishing 1st or 2nd)

Just one of the previous 18 winners had appeared on the flat

That’s a strong dataset with which to work and the horses in this field that possess

most of the required credentials and attributes can be considered very strong

candidates….


This season’s edition of the RSA Chase will be run on Wednesday 16th March.








prices.

The Profile of a Champion Chase winner

The Champion Chase is the feature race of Day 2 at the Cheltenham Festival and is

the pinnacle event in racing for chasers over the minimum distance. The list of

recent winners reads like a Who’s Who of 21st Century chasers and this race is very

rarely produced a freak result. The only downside is that it rarely attracts a big field.

But the race is never less than exciting with quality chasers taking their fences at

real speed.

This is a Grade 1 event for chasers over 2 miles and 12 fences on Cheltenham’s Old course. The race is open to horses aged 5 and older. Weights are set at 11-10. Mares benefit from the standard 7lb allowance.

Yards with form – Paul Nicholls has been the man with the right horses in

recent times – with the likes of Azertyuiop, Master Minded and, more recently,

Dodging Bullets, flying the Ditcheat flag flag. Nicky Henderson has won two

of the last 4 renewals. The bottom line is that past form counts for little. You need

the right horse right now.

Market pointer – The market has been a decent guide in recent times with 14 of

the winners since 1997 going off in the front 3 market positions. Only one of the

last 17 winners went off at an SP bigger than 10s.

I’ve studied the last 18 renewals of the Queen Mother Champion Chase and I’ve

identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live

contenders and the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….


17 of the last 18 winners had already won at least 4 times over fences

17 had raced at least 6 times over fences

16 were operating at a strike rate of 50%+ at 16f to 17f over fences

16 had scored a best chasing RPR of 166+

16 had scored 163+ last time out over fences

16 had scored a best of 154+ on the Topspeed scale

16 had won a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 chase that term

16 had already won or finished 2nd in an Open Grade 1 chase (11 had won one of last two such races contested)

16 had raced at 16f or 17f over fences last time out

16 had been off the track between 32 and 55 days

15 had an overall strike rate of 50%+ over fences

15 had scored career-best chasing RPR over fences at 16f or 17f

15 had contested a Grade 1 chase that term

15 had already raced over fences at the track (12 producing a win)

15 were no older than 9-years-old (incl. 11 of last 12 winners)

14 had won last chase completed

14 had won at trips of 18f+ (just 2 had gone beyond 21f)

14 had appeared at a previous Festival (9 securing a top 3 finish)

11 of the last 12 winners had raced no more than 15 times over fences

11 of the last 12 winners appeared in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase last time out

10 of the last 12 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season

10 of the last 12 winners had won a chase worth £50k+ to winning connections

Another very strong set of Winning Profile stats there which will enable you to

pinpoint the best-qualified contenders and swerve the horses that will be running

for pride and down-the-order money….


This season’s edition of the Queen Mother Champion Chase will be run on

Wednesday 16th March.






prices.

The Profile of a JLT Novices’ Chase winner

The JLT Novices’ Chase was only added to the Festival programme in 2011. It was

originally a Grade 2 race was upgraded to Grade 1 status for the 2015 renewal. We

only have 5 renewals to study but it’s a good race and I think it’s worthwhile to

extract what statistical pointers we can. A decent size field – averaging 11 – has

gone to post each year.

The race is a Grade 1 contest for novice chasers – some of whom might be destined for a place at the top table of jumps racing further down the line. The race is run over 20f and 17 fences on Cheltenham’s New course. The race is open to horses aged 5 and older. Weights are set at 11-04. Mares benefit from the standard 7lb allowance.

Market pointers – Three of the 5 winners to date were sent off in the front 2 of

the market.

I’ve studied the 5 renewals of the JLT Novices’ Chase to date and I’ve identified a




All of the last 5 winners were aged 6 or 7

All had raced over fences at least 3 times and no more than 5 times

All had won over fences

All had a chasing strike-rate of at least 33% (4 were operating at 40%+)

All finished 1st or 2nd last time out

All were officially rated 146+

All had scored a best RPR of 150+ over fences

All had finished 1st or 2nd in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 chase

All had preciously raced at Cheltenham (albeit 4 of them only over hurdles)

All 5 had appeared at a previous Festival (4 hitting the top 6)

All had appeared in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 last time out (4 of them at Leopardstown)

All had scored an RPR of 143+ over hurdles

4 had scored career-best fencing RPR last time out

4 had won multiple races over fences

4 had already run at 19f+ (all registering a win in the process)

4 were trained in Ireland

Of course, we’re not working with a big data sample so our conclusions are more

tentative than definitive – but even so, those stats should point you to strong

candidates running in this season’s edition of the race….


This season’s edition of the JLT Novices’ Chase will be run on Thursday 17th

March.






prices.

The Profile of a Ryanair Chase winner

Since its introduction to the Festival programme in 2005 the Ryanair Chase has

developed into something of a championship event for the middle-distance chasers

and – for my money at least – represents one of the best races held at the meeting.

It attracts decent fields of high-quality runners and has produced some really

exciting finishes over the last few years.

This is a Grade 1 race run over the 21 furlong trip and 17 fences on Cheltenham’s New course. The race is open to horses aged 5 and older. Weights are set at 11-10 with mares getting the standard 7lb allowance.

Yards with form – Jonjo O’Neill has won this twice and placed once but all as a

result of one horse – Albertas Run. Where strong performances from multiple

horses are concerned it’s a case of the same old story. Nicky Henderson and

Paul Nicholls are the men with the best records. Henderson has had 2 winners

and three places from 13 runners. Nicholls has produced 2 winners and 2 places

from his 15 representatives. David Pipe has produced in this race too – 5 runners

producing two wins and a place. Alan King’s last 6 participants have produced a

win and two place finishes.

Bloodlines of note – King’s Theatre sired two of the last 4 winners of the race –

Riverside Theatre and Cue Card.

Market pointers – Consensus horses have been to the fore in the short history of

this race. Nine of the 11 winners to date were sent off in the front 3 of the market.

I’ve studied the 11 renewals of the Ryanair Chase to date and I’ve identified a series

of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the

best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….


All had run in a chase at Cheltenham (10 finishing in top 2 and 8 hitting that level multiple times)

All had been off the track at least 26 days

10 had appeared at a previous Festival (9 registering at least one top 5 finish)


10 had run in 2 to 4 chases that term

10 of the last 11 winners were officially rated 155+ (7 of the last 8 were rated 161+)

10 had scored a career-best RPR over fences of 160+

10 had won at least 4 times over fences

10 had appeared in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase last time out

10 had a Dosage Profile with a CD figure of 0.33 or lower. Get the figures for this year’s field here: http://www.pedigreequery.com/

9 had scored an RPR of 160+ in one of last 3 races over fences

9 had scored an RPR of 160+ at 20f to 22f over fences

9 had finished in the first 3 in a Graded chase that term

9 had a chase strike-rate of 30%+

9 had won at least 2 chases at 19f to 22f

9 had raced no more than 17 times over fences

8 had finished 1st or 2nd in at least one of last two chases contested

8 had scored a career-best Topspeed rating of 151+

8 of the last 9 winners had contested a race worth £80k+ that term (6 producing a top 3 finish)

8 of the last 11 winners had already won a chase worth at least £50k to winning connections

8 had a strike rate of 33%+ over fences at 19f to 22f


8 had contested races at 24f+ over fences (6 producing performances worth 164+

All of the last 8 winners had run in a Grade 1 chase that term


5 of the last 8 winners had already won an Open Grade 1 chase at some point on the RPR scale)

Another strong Winning Profile with a range of significant and informative stats

which will swiftly draw your attention to the runners most likely to be competitive

in this season’s renewal….


This season’s edition of the Ryanair Chase will be run on Thursday 17th March.






prices.

The Profile of a World Hurdle winner

The World Hurdle is the Championship event for the staying hurdlers. Working

with the stats for this race is slightly confused by the fact that 3 horses – Big

Buck’s, Inglis Drever and Baracouda – won 9 of the last 18 renewals between

them. With that in mind I have focused most attention on figures extracted from

the 11 renewals since 1997 to feature a first-time winner.

This is Grade 1 event contested over 3 miles and 12 hurdles on Cheltenham’s New course. The race is open to horses aged 4 and older. The 4yos carry 11-01. The older horses carry 11-10. Mares get the 7lb allowance.

Yards with form – Trainers that have handled any one of the multiple winners

clearly stand out on the stats. Of the rest Alan King’s runners are worth a look.

He’s saddled just one winner but 4 of his other 13 runners hit the frame.

Market pointers – Twelve of the last 18 winners could be found in the top 3 of

the market.

I’ve studied each of the last 18 renewals but I’ve focused my attention most closely

on the 12 renewals since 1997 featuring first-time winners of the race. I’ve




All of the last 12 first-time winners had won at least twice over hurdles

All had raced no more than 24 time under rules in total (on flat, in bumpers, over hurdles or over fences)

11 had appeared over hurdles at Cheltenham (8 producing a top 2 finish)

11 of the last 12 first-time winners had won a race against at least 10 opponents

10 were operating over hurdles at a winning strike rate in excess 37.5%+

10 had scored a career-best hurdling RPR of 157+ (6 had scored 165+)

10 had scored career-best RPR in one of last 3 races

10 of the last 12 first-time winners were aged 6 or 7

10 had run between 2 and 4 times over hurdles that term

10 had raced in last 7 weeks

9 of the last 12 first-time winners had a strike rate of 42%+ over hurdles

9 of the last 12 first time winners had scored at least 135 over hurdles on the Topspeed scale

9 had appeared at a previous Festival (6 producing at least one top 6 finish)

9 had scored 150+ last time out (7 had scored 156+)

9 had won a Grade race that season

9 had already finished 1st or 2nd in an Open Grade 1 race

9 had raced between 6 and 14 times over hurdles

9 of the last 10 first-time winners contested a Grade race last time out

8 of the last 9 first-time winners had not been outside the first 2 in a hurdle race that term

6 had not run over hurdles at 24f+ (4 of those had scored 157+ at longest trip encountered)

5 of the last 8 first-time winners had won a hurdle race worth £37k+ to winning connections

5 of that 6 that had run over hurdles at 24f+ had produced a win (and each of them had scored an RPR of 157+ at that kind of trip)

Those stats will serve to alert you to the major players in this season’s renewal.


This season’s edition of the World Hurdle will be run on Thursday 17th March.






prices.

The Profile of a Triumph Hurdle winner

The final day of the Festival meeting kicks-off with the Triumph Hurdle – an

opportunity for the juvenile hurdlers to stamp their mark and advertise their top-

level credentials. This is the top event for juvenile hurdlers on the NH programme

and a big field goes to post almost every year. The winner and placed horses are

inevitably pretty good. Future Champion Hurdle runners and other future top-table

performers make their big-race debut in the Triumph.

This is a Grade 1 race that is run over the 17f trip and 8 flights on Cheltenham’s New course. The race is open to 4-year-old horses. Weights are set at 11-00. Mares get the standard 7lb allowance.

Yards with form – Alan King has a well-deserved reputation for being good with

hurdlers and his record in this race tells you why. His last 17 runners produced 2

wins and 4 frame finishes. Nicky Henderson has had 3 winners and 5 that made

the frame since the turn of the century – he’s saddled 6 winners in total. Paul

Nicholls and Philip Hobbs have also saddled 2 winners and 2 placed horses

since 2000 – the latter from just 7 runners.

Bloodlines of note – Kalanisi’s 4 progeny to run in this race since 2000 produced

a win and 2 frame finishes.

In the plate – Barry Geraghty knows what it takes to go well in this contest. His

last 14 rides generated 4 wins and 2 additional placed finishes. Ruby Walsh &

Richard Johnson all have good records – capitalizing on their relationships with

the big yards.

Market pointers – A bit of a mixed bag with 10 of the last 18 winners emerging

from the front 3 in the market but encouragement for contrarians with winners 5

at price between 16s and 33s – and plenty of placed horses at prices.

I’ve studied the last 18 renewals of the Triumph Hurdle and I’ve identified a series of

key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best

bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….


15 had won last time out (another 2 finished 2nd)

All of the last 18 winners had won a hurdle race

17 were operating at a strike-rate of 50%+ over hurdles

16 had raced over hurdles at least twice

All had run no more than 6 times over hurdles (10 of last 12 winners had run no more than 3 times over hurdles)

15 had run no more than 13 times in total (on flat, in bumpers or over hurdles)

14 had scored a career-best RPR of 133+

17 had scored career-best RPR in one of last 2 runs

6 of the last 9 winners were officially rated 140+

7 of the last 9 winners had made the first 2 in a Graded hurdle race

13 of the last 18 winners had appeared on the flat (incl. 11 of the last 14 winners)

14 of the last 18 winners were sired by a Group 1 winner on the flat

9 of the last 10 winners had a Dosage Profile with a CD figure of 0.39 or less. Get the CD figures for this year’s field here: http://www.pedigreequery.com/

All had been off the track at least 3 weeks (13 no more than 35 days)

All of the last 18 winners had been on the track at some point in the last 55 days

14 of the last 18 winners appeared at Kempton, Sandown or Leopardstown last time out

14 had scored a Topspeed figure of at least 110 over hurdles


9 of the 10 previous winners to race 3 times or more over hurdles had won multiple times

We are dealing here with young and very lightly raced horses – so there is a limit to

the information we have to work with. But there are some strong pointers

nevertheless and horses from top yards who meet a broad sweep of the criteria are

the ones to focus your betting attention on….


This season’s edition of the Triumph Hurdle will be run on Friday 18th March.






prices.

The Profile of an Albert Bartlett Hurdle winner

We move on next to the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (also known as the Spa

Hurdle) – one of the races added to the Festival programme in 2005. It was a Grade

2 race but was awarded Grade 1 status in 2008. This is an event for the novice

staying hurdlers and some very good horses have won it – including subsequent

Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth. A big-field generally heads to post.

The race is a Grade 1 event for novices contested over 3 miles and 12 hurdles on Cheltenham’s New course. The race is open to horses aged 4 and older. The 4yos carry 10-12. The older horses shoulder 11-07. Fillies and mares get the 7lb allowance.

Yards with form – Jonjo O’Neill has won it twice. Irish trainer C Byrnes has

found a strong contender 3 times – saddling a winner and 2 place finishers. Alan

King, Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls are other trainers

who have produced multiple competitive players in the short history of the event

to date.

Bloodlines of note – King’s Theatre has had 8 of his progeny run in this race –

scoring 2 wins and a place. Bob Back progeny also show signs of being well-

suited. His 3 runners produced a win and a place. Oscar has produced 2 winners

and a place from 10 runners. Milan got the first two home in 2015

In the plate – Berry Geraghty’s 7 rides to date produced a win and 2 places.

Market pointers – Just three winners bigger than 9s in the 10 renewals to date –

but a 33/1 shot won it in 2014 and some big-priced horses have hit the frame.

I’ve studied the last 11 renewals of the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle and I’ve




All of the last 11 winners had scored a career-best hurdling RPR of 139+ (9 had scored 145+)

All had scored career-best RPR in one of last 2 hurdle races

All had won a hurdle race (8 were multiple winners)

All had a Dosage Profile with a CD figure of 0.21 or lower. Get the CD figures for this year’s runners here: http://www.pedigreequery.com/

All had been off the track 4 weeks or more

10 had run in 3 or 4 hurdle races that term

10 had already won a race worth at least £12k to winning connections

10 had a sire with a Stamina Index of 11.4+

9 had raced 3 to 6 times over hurdles

9 had run no more than 8 times in total (incl. flat and NHF runs)

9 were aged 6- or 7-years-old

9 had a strike rate of 25%+ over hurdles (8 were operating at 33%+)

9 had finished 1st or 2nd in 50%+ of hurdle races contested

9 had finished 1st or 2nd last time out (another had finished 3rd)

9 were officially rated 137+ (7 were 140+)

9 had scored career-best RPR over hurdles at 21f+

9 had made the front 2 in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 hurdle race

9 had run in bumpers (just one had run on the flat)

8 had already raced over hurdles at 24f

8 were bred in Ireland (the other 3 in France)


7 had experience of the Cheltenham hurdles (6 had run there twice) and 6 had made a top 3 finish at the track

Just one had run in a Class 1 race at a trip shorter than 20f over hurdles

No shortage of quality pointers to work with there. Horses in this year’s field that

score well on that Winning Profile can be considered very strong contenders….


This season’s edition of the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle will be run on Friday 18th

March.






prices.

The Profile of a Gold Cup winner

The finale of the Festival (at least as far as we are concerned) is the feature race of

the week – the Gold Cup. This is the most prestigious of all NH races – the richest

on the programme. The horse that wins is pretty much seen as the Premier

champion of the sport. The races tests just about everything a horse can be tested

on – speed, jumping, stamina, heart, character and temperament – and represents

the ultimate test in jumps racing.

The race is a Grade 1 event contested over the extended 26f trip and 22 fences on Cheltenham’s New course. The race is open to horses aged 5 and older. The 5yos carry 11-09. Older horses carry 11-10. Mares get the standard 7lb allowance.

Yards with form – Paul Nicholls had the boss hand for quite a few years with

Kauto Star and Denman in his arsenal. More recently Nicky Henderson has

come to the fore with 2 winners in the last 5 years.

Market pointers – It is always tempting to try and find a Hollywood bet in these

big races – but this is one race where that policy has failed in recent times. 14 of

the last 15 winners emerged from the front 3 in the market – and only the 2014

winner, Lord Windermere, went off bigger than 8s. By the time this race comes

round the market generally has a good handle on the participants.

I’ve studied the last 18 renewals of the Gold Cup and I’ve identified a series of key

statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets

in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….


All of the last 18 winners had produced career-best chase RPR at 24f to 27f

All had been off the track at least 5 weeks (8 of the last 12 winners had been off the track for 62+ days)

17 appeared at Newbury, Cheltenham, Leopardstown or Kempton last time out

17 had appeared at a previous Festival (11 of the last 15 winners had made the top 2 in a Festival race)


17 had raced in no more than 13 chases (7 of the last 8 winners has raced in no more than 9)

17 had raced in no more than 18 races in total

17 had won at least 3 races over fences


16 had run at least twice over fences that season

16 had run no more than 4 times over fences that season

16 had contested a Grade 1 chase that season (12 hitting the front 2)

16 contested a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 chase last time out

16 had scored an RPR of at least 162 last time out

16 had made the top 2 in a Grade 1 chase over 24f to 27f

16 had scored a career-best Topspeed rating of 150+

16 had form over the Cheltenham fences (13 having hit the top 2 in a chase at the track)

15 had scored a career-best chasing RPR of 169+

15 had won that season

15 had scored career-best rating in one of last 3 races over fences

14 of the last 18 winners were bred in Ireland (the other 3 in France)

13 had a strike-rate of 40%+ over fences at trips of 24f to 27f

13 of the 14 previous winners with an official rating going into the race were rated 166+

13 finished 1st or 2nd last time out

10 of the last 12 winners had already won an Open Grade 1 chase at some point in their chasing career (8 had won one of the last two such races contested)

11 of the last 12 winners had a strike-rate of 45%+ over fences

6 of the last 9 winners had won a chase worth at least £70k that term

The bigger the race the stronger the range of statistical credentials a horse must

possess. Winning Profiles don’t get any stronger than the one above. Horses that

tick most boxes are the ones on which you should be betting….


This season’s edition of the Gold Cup will be run on Friday 18th March.






prices.

Documents

Cheltenham Festival Winning Profiles 2016 - Against the CrowdThe Profile of a Supreme Novice Hurdle winner The Cheltenham Festival gets underway with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle