Cheltenham Spread Betting Guide 2012

2012 CHELTENHAM

FESTIVALSPREAD BETTINGPOCKET GUIDE

The big day is approaching once again, as the throngs of bookmakersand punters prepare to descend on Prestbury Park for four days ofwonderful sport and intense battle.

We’ve put together a handy pocket spread betting guide to this year’sFestival that includes a whole host of interesting stats, trends andtrainer quotes.

Many of you will be familiar with the thrills and spills of sports spreadbetting, whilst others will be encountering it for the first time. Hopefully, you’ll both find this guide of equal use as we have dedicated a few pages to explanations, whilst devoting the bulk to thekey races.

Speaking of which, can Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe, Big Buck’s andLong Run all retain their crowns? If you’ve got an opinion on thefour principal races or any of the other supporting contests, then itmay be worth testing your wits against ours and having a spread bet.

To open an account or to find out more about sports spread betting,simply visit www.starspreads.com or call 1800 624 624 (08082349709 from UK).

The Schedule

Tuesday 13th March

Time Race Distance

1.30 William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2m 1/2f

2.05 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase 2m

2.40 JLT Specialty Steeple Chase (A Handicap) 3m 1/2f

3.20 Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy 2m 1/2f

4.00 Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Steeple Chase 3m 7f

4.40 OLBG Mares Hurdle (for the David Nicholson Trophy) 2m 4f

5.15 Pulteney Land Investments Novices’ Handicap Chase 2m 4 1/2f

Wednesday 14th March

Time Race Distance

1.30 National Hunt Steeple Chase Challenge Cup 4m

2.05 Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle 2m 5f

2.40 RSA Steeple Chase 3m 1/2f

3.20 sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Steeple Chase 2m

4.00 Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) 2m 5f

4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 2m 1/2f

5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) 2m 1/2f

Thursday 15th March

Time Race Distance

1.30 Jewson Novices' Steeple Chase 2m 5f

2.05 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) 3m

2.40 Ryanair Chase 2m 5f

3.20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle 3m

4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Steeple Chase 2m 5f

4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeple Chase 3m 1 1/2f

5.15 St. Patrick's Derby (Charity Race) 1m 5f

Friday 16th March

Time Race Distance

1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle 2m 1f

2.05 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle 2m 1f

2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle 3m

3.20 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase 3m 2 1/2f

4.00 Christie's Foxhunter Steeple Chase 3m 2 1/2f

4.40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle 2m 4 1/2f

5.15 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase 2m 1/2f

Race IndexThe most popular market we offer is arace index which allows you to back aparticular horse or oppose it.

We may create a market where the winner of the race is awarded 50 points,the runner-up 25 points and the third 10points. We then make a prediction onhow many points each horse will get.

Here’s an example…

Cheltenham 3.20pm50/25/10 IndexHurricane Fly 23-26Grandouet 16-19Zarkandar 14-17Binocular 10-13Oscars Well 8-11

If you thought Binocular would dowell you would bet high or “buy”Binocular at 13 for your chosen stake say€5 a point.

If Binocular won you would win (50-13)x €5 = Win €185

If Binocular came 2nd you would win(25-13) x €5 = Win €60

If Binocular came 3rd you would lose(13-10) x €5 = Lose €15

If Binocular finished 4th or worse or didn’t finish you would lose (13-0) x€5 = Lose €65

Match BetsAnother hugely popular market wherewe make a prediction on the distance between two specific horses when theycross the finishing line… wherever theyfinish. The maximum winning distance is12 lengths (flat) and 15 lengths (jumps)and if both horses fail to finish the bet will be void. It can also have a negativeresult meaning greater wins and losses.

Here’s an example…

In the Gold Cup, we might predict thatLong Run will finish somewhere between 1 and 2 ½ lengths ahead ofKauto Star.

What is

Sports Spread Betting?For those of you new to sports spread betting, we make predictions on the outcomes of sporting events and you decide whether we’ve pitched them too high ortoo low. What you eventually win or lose depends on the stake size you choose to betwith and how wrong or right you eventually are.

How do you spread bet on horses?We offer loads of markets on horseracing…

If Long Run finished 5 lengths in front of Kauto Star you’d win 2 ½times your stake if you bought at 2 ½lengths, but lose 4 times your stake ifyou sold at 1.

Favourites IndexWe make a prediction on the performanceof the favourites in each race at a particular meeting. Points are awarded forfinishing in the first three in the followingway: 25 points for win, 10 points for second and 5 points for third. If there arejoint or co-favourites, the lowest racecardnumber will be deemed favourite.

Eg: Lingfield (8 races)Spread: 64-68

Result:Race 1 = first (25), Race 2 = third (5),Race 3 = unplaced (0), Race 4 = second (10), Race 5 = first (25), Race

6 = first (25), Race 7 = unplaced (0),Race 8 = second (10) = 100 total pointsProfit = 32 x stake if bought / loss =36 x stake if sold

Winning DistancesThe combined total of winning marginsbetween first and second in all races at ameeting. Points are awarded at 1 point perlength and races with margins of less thanhalf a length are settled as follows: nose =0.05 lengths, short-head = 0.1, head = 0.2and neck = 0.3. The maximum winningdistance is 12 lengths (flat) and 30 lengths(jumps).

Eg: Pontefract (7 races)Spread: 12.5-14

• Market Result: 2, 1.5, 0.1, 4, 3.5, 10, 5 = 26.1• Profit = 12.1 x stake if bought / loss = 13.6 x stake if sold

How it works?

Stat Attack(Last 10 renewals with most recent results on right and in bold)

Winner’s Age 8, 6, 6, 5, 5, 6, 7, 6, 5, 6

Winner’s SP 7/4f, 3/1f, 7/2f, 20/1, 6/1, 40/1, 17/2, 12/1, 12/1, 10/1

Fate of Favourite 1st, 1st, 1st, 13th, 5th, 3rd, 2nd (jf), 5th, 3rd, 4th

Winning Distance nk, 10, nk, 6, nk, 3, 2, nk, hd, 2

Previous run 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st

Key Trends17 of the last 21 renewals have gone to a five or six-year-old.Ireland have won seven of the last 11 runnings.15 of the last 17 winners won last time out.

Last year’s eventual winner Al Ferof (yellow) came from miles back

2m 1/2f

Match Bet Hint…

Side with the horse

with no stamina

worries and

big-field experience

1.30pm

William Hill SupremeNovices’ Hurdle

What the connections say...(We’ve sent Geoff Lester out to speak to some of the leading connections)

“He is a 110-rated horse on the Flat and has a lot of class, and the better the ground, the betterhis chance.”

Dermot Weld, trainer of Galileo’s Choice

“He had a busy summer last year, running four times on the Flat, so after he had made it threefrom three over hurdles at Cheltenham in November, we purposely gave him a break. He is a serious horse and ticks all the right boxes.”

Jessica Harrington, trainer of Steps To Freedom

“He is a gorgeous horse and has so much speed that, while he has won on the soft, his gear-change is more effective on drier ground. I knew that he was good, but Newbury showed usjust how good and we think he would have won even if Colour Squadron had not fallen two out.”

Alan King, trainer of Montbazon

Leading Contender The Irish have won the curtain-raiser seven times since the turn of the century, and,

with STEPS TO FREEDOM, Galileo’s Choice, Midnight Game and Trifolium, they

again have a strong representation. Montbazon, impressive at Newbury in his

dress rehearsal, could prove best of the home-trained contingent, but Steps To

Freedom readily brushed him aside when they met in the Aintree bumper last season.

Furthermore, the leaders invariably go off very fast in the championship races at the

Festival, putting more emphasis on the jumping, and therefore it pays to go for the slick

hurdler, and Steps to Freedom, who has looked a natural since switching codes, has the

edge over Montbazon in that department. The cheekpieces have made a world of

difference to Trifolium, who now settles in front, but it is hard to make all here, and

Galileo’s Choice, who did not enjoy the ground at Fairyhouse but still managed to

win, could be a better alternative.

Tuesday 13th March


Winner’s Age 8, 6, 5, 7, 5, 7, 7, 7, 8, 7

Winner’s SP 11/2, 5/4f, 9/1, 7/1, 15/2, 7/2, 6/1, 8/1, 6/1, 6/1

Fate of Favourite 2nd, 1st, Fell, 7th, 7th, 2nd, 3rd, Fell, 8th, 4th

Winning Distance 4, 11, 1, 1, 1 ¼, 5, 13, Shd, ¾, 2 ¾

Previous run Fell, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 1st

Key TrendsKlairon Davis and Azertyyuiop are the only winning favourites since 1991.Seven-year-olds have won five of the last seven.12 of the last 14 winners started 2nd, 3rd or 4th favourite.

Captain Chris sees off Finian’s Rainbow to land last year’s Arkle

2.05pm

Racing Post ArkleChase

2m

Match Bet Hint…

Oppose horses

with stamina

limitations and no

Cheltenham experience

What the connections say...

“I have never ridden a better one – Moscow Flyer was very good, but this fellow would have abetter finishing kick. He has so much speed and I have never ridden a horse who is so slick andfast over his fences, and, though he is difficult to settle, he is not a tearaway.”

Barry Geraghty, rider of Sprinter Sacre

“He had worked as well as he had ever done the day before Kempton, yet he was never going inthe race and it was almost a relief when he came back sore all over. We have given him plenty oftime to recover and we are looking forward to the rematch with Sprinter Sacre.”

Donald McCain, trainer of Peddlers Cross

“He wants further than two miles, but you need to stay to win an Arkle, and Timeform rate histhird in the Victor Chandler as one of the best performances from any novice this season. The experience of running in a fast-run, top class two-mile chase at Ascot has put him just right forthis.”

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Al Ferof

Tuesday 13th March

Leading ContenderThe last eight favourites for this prestigious race have all been beaten, but SPRINTER

SACRE is not only most professionals’ idea of the opening day banker, but is also

thought by many to be the bet of the meeting, and it will be a major shock if he is

beaten. Not far behind the best over hurdles – he finished third in the Supreme here

12 months ago – you only had to look at this magnificent physical specimen to know

that he would be even better over fences. He is unbeaten in three attempts over the

larger obstacles which prompted Nicky Henderson to describe him as “the black

aeroplane” after he had sailed through his dress rehearsal with another breathtaking

exhibition at Newbury. There does not appear to be a blemish on Sprinter Sacre’s CV,

but Peddlers Cross looked the real deal until pulling muscles when “the big horse” put

him in his place at Kempton over Christmas and he is preferred to Al Ferof and Cue

Card for the forecast.


Winner’s Age 7, 9, 7, 8, 8, 7, 5, 6, 6, 7

Winner’s SP 10/1, 9/2, 33/1, 7/2 jf, 7/4f, 16/1, 10/1, 22/1, 9/1, 11/4f

Fate of Favourite PU, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 6th, 14th, 3rd, 10th, 1st

Winning Distance 3, 11, 5, nk, 1, 3, 1, nk, 3 ½, 1 ¼

Previous run 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 1st

Key Trends16 of the last 23 winners had winning form at Cheltenham.

24 of the last 28 winners won their prep race.

Katchit is the only five-year-old to win since See You Then

in 1985.

Hurricane Fly proves too strong in last year’s Champion Hurdle

3.20pm

Stan James Champion Hurdle

2m 1/2f

Match Bet Hint…

Hurricane Fly has

won his last two

races by 5 lengths

and 6 ½ lengths

What the connections say...“He is simply a great horse and I told everyone before Christmas to take all the 2/1 that theycould get for the Champion. He was so impressive on his comeback in the Irish Champion, I gavehim a squeeze three out and he came alive.”

Ruby Walsh, rider of Hurricane Fly

“It was a huge performance to win at Newbury first time out, and I am confident that we willhave him even better on the day. His stamina always kicks in from the second last, so the Cheltenham hill will help him.”

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Zarkandar

“The Hurricane might well blow us all away, but I have two live chances in Grandouet andBinocular. Nothing was going better than Grandouet turning for home in the Triumph last yearand the form has worked out super, while our fellow has strengthened up a lot. I was pleased tobe able to get that prep-race into Binocular at Wincanton as he can be a very stuffy individual andhe could not have been more impressive.”

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Grandouet and Binocular

Tuesday 13th March

Leading Contender We might see HURRICANE FLY about as often as we spot the Scarlet Pimpernel,

but when he does turn up he gives the impression that he is the best Champion

Hurdler there has been since triple winner Istabraq. He was awesome 12 months ago

and showed on his belated reappearance in the Irish Champion that he can still boast

a turbo-charged engine. Willie Mullins reckons that his Flat race speed can sometimes

be blunted by the testing ground, but he coped well enough with the conditions at

Fairyhouse and has only been beaten twice in 14 races over hurdles, and, while he is

now slight odds-on, compared with the 11/4 we got on the day last year, we have to

fill our boots again. Grandouet travels better than Zarkandar and is taken to reverse last

year’s Triumph Hurdle form, and with his price drifting after he missed his prep-race

with a slight knock he remains the each-way value.


Winner’s Age 7, 7, 8, 7, 5, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7

Winner’s SP 33/1, 15/2, 25/1, 5/1, 14/1, 6/5f, 4/1f, 9/4f, 10/1, 16/1

Fate of Favourite 5th, 5th, 3rd, 2nd, PU, 1st, 1st, 1st, 5th, 5th

Winning Distance 2, 1 ¾, 1 ¼, 3, 6, 10, 4 ½, 16, 7, nk

Previous run 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st

Key Trends10 of the last 12 winners were aged seven.Ireland have won this race three years running and all three winners contested the Dr PJ Moriarty Chase at Leopardstown.No Feltham winner (Grands Crus) has gone on to win this race.

Bostons Angel (last year’s winner) and Jessies Dream in the air together at the last

2.40pm

RSA Steeple Chase3m 1/2f

Match Bet Hint…

Oppose those yet

to win over three

miles or more



“He is a phenomenal horse, and whereas he used to burn up his energy by trying to fight me, he

is now much more settled. He left the others for dust when winning the Feltham at Kempton in

a three-second faster time than Kauto Star clocked in winning the King George, so whichever race

we go for, I will fancy my chances.”

Tom Scudamore, rider of Grands Crus

“He’d had only one gallop and one school since Grands Crus beat him at Kempton on

Boxing Day, so to finish second on his comeback run in the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot was

some performance.”

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Bobs Worth

“He had one or two back problems early on this season, but he jumped better at Leopardstown

last time, and he loved Cheltenham last year.”

Mouse Morris, trainer of First Lieutenant

Leading ContenderEveryone is waiting with baited breath to see if the exciting Grands Crus runs here

rather than the Gold Cup, and, while it looks the favoured option, the value surely lies

with BOBS WORTH, who, though only third to Grands Crus at Kempton on

Boxing Day, has since had a wind operation. He was only 80% fit for his return at Ascot

and will be better suited by the uphill finish at Cheltenham, where he is three from three

over hurdles. Last year’s Neptune Hurdle hero First Lieutenant is probably

Ireland’s best chance of taking the prize back across the water for the fourth

consecutive year. However, he is not rated in the same league as the same owner’s Last

Instalment, who has to miss the race through injury.


Winner’s Age 8, 9, 7, 11, 8, 6, 5, 6, 9, 9

Winner’s SP 7/4f, 7/4f, 15/8, 6/4, 16/1, 5/1, 3/1, 4/11f, 10/1, 10/1

Fate of Favourite 1st, 1st, unseated, 1st, Fell, Fell, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 8th

Winning Distance 3, 7, 9, 2, 9, 1 ½, 19, 7, 6, 5

Previous run 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, UR, 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd

Key TrendsOnly one horse (Moscow Flyer) has won this race aged older than 10 since 1977.26 of the last 30 winners have been single figure prices, but the last two have both been 10/1.13 of the last 19 winners have won at the Festival previously.

Sizing Europe chased home by Big Zeb in last season’s Champion Chase

3.20pm

sportingbet.comChampion Chase

2m

Match Bet Hint…

Side with those

who have won over

further than two

miles



“It has taken me six years to have the confidence to let him bowl along, and he produced a savage performance when we rode him that way in the Tied Cottage. What’s more, he loves Cheltenham as much as I do!”

Henry De Bromhead, trainer of Sizing Europe

“You did not see the real Big Zeb at Punchestown – he hated that heavy ground and I knew wewere in trouble at the first – but don’t rule us out on better ground.”

Colm Murphy, trainer of Big Zeb

“He was a bit of a tearaway last year and was always out in front and there to be shot at, but hischaracter changed during the summer and you can now ride a race on him, though whether we canbeat Sizing Europe is another matter.”

Michael Buckley, owner of Finian’s Rainbow

Leading Contender The score between SIZING EUROPE and Big Zeb stands at two apiece, but thereigning champion should confirm last year’s running over his favourite course. Therewas only half a length between the pair at the final fence, but Sizing Europe hadstretched his advantage to five lengths at the line. A fast run two miles at Cheltenhamplays to the favourite’s strengths, and when he spots the Prestbury Park hill he engagesthe afterburners. Big Zeb did take the two-mile title the previous year, but it was a sub-standard race, with Master Minded not himself and both Forpadytheplasterer andKalahari King, who filled the places, never having won a race since. Finian’s Rainbowis probably the best jumper of a fence that Nicky Henderson has trained since Remittance Man, who won this race 20 years ago, but he did not get up the hill lastyear when beaten in the Arkle, so why should he now?

Tuesday 13th March

Key Trends (Remainder of Day One)

Notes...____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

2.40pm JLT Speciality Steeple ChaseJust five of the last 26 winners have carried 11st or more.Only two favourites have won since 1977.

4.00pm Glenfarclas Cross Country ChaseIrish trained horses have won all seven renewals.No horse younger than nine has ever won this race.

4.40pm OLBG Mares Hurdle (for the David Nicholson Trophy) Quevega is going for her fourth straight win in the race.She has won all three on her seasonal reappearance.

5.15pm Pulteney Land Investments Novices’ Handicap ChaseThe race was run as a 0-140 handicap for the first time last year.Divers became the fifth seven-year-old to win in seven runnings.

Key Trends (Remainder of Day Two)


Notes...

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____________________________________

____________________________________

____________________________________

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1.30pm National Hunt ChaseLast year Chicago Grey was Ireland’s first winner since 1999.Jonjo O’Neill and Ferdy Murphy have won six of the last 10 between them.

4.00pm Coral CupJust the one favourite has won in the race’s 19-year history.12 of the last 15 winners have carried less than 11st.

4.40pm Fred Winter Juvenile Novices HurdleFive of the seven winners have won their prep race.Five of the seven winners have carried 10st 11lb or more.

5.15pm Weatherbys Champion BumperFive-year-olds have won 12 of the 19 renewals.Ireland have won 14 of the 19 races, but England have won the last two.

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Stat Attack(Last seven renewals with most recent results on right and in bold)

Winner’s Age 10, 10, 6, 10, 8, 9, 10

Winner’s SP 9/2, 10/3f, 9/2, 4/1, 6/1, 14/1, 6/1

Fate of Favourite PU, 1st, 4th, 5th, 2nd, 2nd, 4th

Winning Distance ½, 1 ¼, nk, 5, 2, 4 ½, 1

Previous run 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 6th, 2nd, PU

Key TrendsSix of the seven winners failed to win their prep race.

All seven winners had previously won at Cheltenham.

Four of the seven winners ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup that season.

Ireland are yet to win the Ryanair.

Albertas Run winning his second Ryanair Chase last year

2.40pm

Ryanair Chase2m 5f

Match Bet Hint…

Oppose those

who have not run

well at Cheltenham

before

Thursday 15th March


“Like so many horses who have trouble with their breathing, he struggled on the soft ground whenbeaten at Fairyhouse last time, so he has had a little wind operation. We hope that, together withbetter ground, will enable him to fire again back at Cheltenham.”

Paul Nolan, trainer of Noble Prince

“He just had a school round to win the Red Mills, and if we could be guaranteed soft ground again,I would be going there very confident.”

Robbie Hennessy, trainer of Rubi Light

“He had been working well with Burton Port, so when that one gave Long Run a scare at Newbury we began to think that we had him straight enough for the Ascot Chase, and it proveda fairytale return. He goes best fresh, so I just hope we can get him to Cheltenham in the sameform.”

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Riverside Theatre

Leading Contender The Irish have such a fantastic record at the Cheltenham Festival, but it has not been

lost on Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary that they have yet to win any of the seven

runnings of this relatively new race. That could be rectified here as they have strong

credentials with both NOBLE PRINCE and Rubi Light, though the pair want

contrasting ground conditions. Rubi Light is a confirmed mudlark and his chance is

very much dependent on the heavens opening. However, more often than not the

Festival is run on good ground, which will suit Noble Prince, who won the Jewson here

last year and is suited by a fast run race on a decent surface. He will also

appreciate stepping back up in distance. Somersby, whose Arkle Chase second is the

closest he has come in three previous visits to the Festival, produced a career best

performance to win at Ascot last time and looks the pick of the home team.


Winner’s Age 7, 8, 7, 6, 6, 8, 9, 6, 7, 8

Winner’s SP 13/8f, 9/4f, 9/2, 5/1, 8/1, 5/1, 11/8f, 6/1, 5/6f, 10/11f

Fate of Favourite 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, Fell, 1st, 4th, 1st, 1st

Winning Distance nk, ¾, 1 ½, 3, hd, ¾, 1, 1 ¾, 3 ¼, 1 ¾

Previous run 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st

Key TrendsBig Buck’s is aiming to become the first to win this race four times.Anzum won at 40/1 in 1999, but since then every winner has been a single-figure price.The Irish haven’t won this race since 1995.

Big Buck’s won his third World Hurdle 12 months ago

3.20pm

Ladbrokes World Hurdle

3m

Match Bet Hint…

Side with those

guaranteed to stay

the trip

Thursday 15th March


“Everyone loves him – Frankie Dettori even asked to ride him in the Ascot Gold Cup – and heis a real superstar. Maybe the fairytale will end one day, but Paul [Nicholls] insists that he hasnever been better.”

Andy Stewart, owner of Big Buck’s

“Big Buck’s is the best staying hurdler that I have ever seen, but I remain convinced that my fellow will improve again for stepping up in trip and if anybody is going to lower his colours it’sus.”

Barry Geraghty, rider of Oscar Whisky

“He is as quick as anything I have ridden over a hurdle, but twice we have been put in our placeby Big Buck’s, who must be the best hurdler of all time, so we can only hope that the favouritewakes up with a hangover!”

Tom Scudamore, rider of Dynaste

Leading Contender The remarkable BIG BUCK’S, who last started odds-against when he won his first

World Hurdle here in 2009, will emulate Sir Ken, one of the great Champion Hurdlers

from the Fifties, if he can stretch his unbeaten sequence to 16 by becoming the first

horse to land this staying crown in four consecutive years. He no longer hits a flat spot

in his races but still does only just enough, and even when the talented Dynaste got away

from him running down the hill in the Cleeve Hill here in January, he managed to

pick up the leader with consummate ease to win by seven lengths. Oscar Whisky had

the class to finish third behind Hurricane Fly in last year’s Champion and connections

think that he will improve over this longer trip – he might be the solution to the

exacta but he won’t beat Big Buck’s.


Winner’s Age 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4

Winner’s SP 16/1, 20/1, 20/1, 9/1, 7/2f, 11/2, 5/1, 11/2, 6/1, 13/2

Fate of Favourite 1st, PU, 3rd, 10th, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 4th

Winning Distance 2, 11, hd, 2, hd, 5, 2 ¼, ¾, 1 ¼, 2 ¼

Previous run 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st

Key Trends13 of the last 18 winners started in the top four in the betting.

Henderson, Nicholls, King and Hobbs have won the last

eight runnings.

15 of the last 17 winners won their prep race.

Zarkandar skips over the last on his way to winning last year’s renewal

1.30pm

JCB Triumph Hurdle2m 1f

Match Bet Hint…

Side with the most

experienced in the

match-up

Friday 16th March


“We completed the Cheltenham-Aintree juvenile hurdle double in 2005 with Detroit City, andthis fellow would compare very favourably with that one. His work before Kempton was very special, and he is all class.”

Philip Hobbs, trainer of Sadler’s Risk

“He improved physically through the winter, and he stood out as a live Triumph contender beforehis first race at Taunton. He travels and jumps and is unlucky not to be going there unbeaten.”

Alan King, trainer of Grumeti

“He was a typical late improver of the Aga Khan’s and won the Irish Cesarewitch for John Oxx,but he took to jumping straight away when he joined us and has been exciting from day one.”

Dessie Hughes, trainer of Minsk

Leading Contender The four-year-old hurdling championship has never looked more open, and, though theIrish have not managed to lift the crown since Scolardy 10 years ago, there was plentyof inspired money for the Dessie Hughes-trained Minsk before he jumped a twig inpublic. He won an Irish Cesarewitch for John Oxx but is not the only class performerto come off the Flat, with SADLER’S RISK boasting an even more impressive CV.He was a Group horse on the level with Mark Johnston, finishing fourth in the ChesterVase, in which he was only three lengths behind subsequent Irish Derby winner Treasure Beach and King George hero Nathaniel. He gained many friends when winning on his jumping debut at Kempton and has everything that one looks for in aTriumph winner - he travels, jumps and he can quicken. Grumeti and Pearl Swan, firstand second in the Triumph trial here in January, are other smart recruits from the Flat,though with form a level or two below Sadler’s Risk. Dildar, a stablemate of Pearl Swan,was only five lengths off Derby winner Pour Moi in a Group 2 in France and, despitehating the soft ground, impressed Ruby Walsh with his attitude when winning first time over jumps at Taunton.


Winner’s Age 8, 7, 8, 9, 7, 7, 7, 8, 9, 6

Winner’s SP 9/2, 7/1, 13/8f, 8/11f, 4/1f, 15/2, 5/4f, 9/4, 7/4f, 7/2f

Fate of Favourite 4th, PU, 1st, 1st, 1st, 11th, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st

Winning Distance 5, 1 ¾, 10, ½, 5, 2 ½, 2 ½, 7, 13, 7

Previous run 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 5th, 1st

Key Trends12 of the last 14 winners have been placed at the Festival before.16 of the last 19 winners were aged between seven and nine.No horse older than 10 has won since 1969.

Long Run powers to glory last year

3.20pm

Betfred CheltenhamGold Cup

3m 2 1/2f

Match Bet Hint…

Oppose those who

have not won over

the course and

distance

Friday 16th March


“It did both the horse and Sam’s confidence the world of good to get back on the winning roadat Newbury last time. He looked more alert beforehand and has given 10lb to some good horses.He was brilliant over the last two fences and went to the front tanking - I can’t wait for a rematch with Kauto Star.”

Robert Waley-Cohen, owner of Long Run

“He definitely seems better than ever this season, but win or lose they can’t deny that he is a legend. He showed just how much when winning his fifth King George with his best ever exhibition of jumping on Boxing Day, but he has also won two Gold Cups and Cheltenham actually suits him better than Kempton, so who knows.”

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Kauto Star

“We weren’t at all surprised that he ran Long Run so close at Newbury – he is a stone betterhorse at home this season, and he’ll definitely improve again.”

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Burton Port

Leading Contender We hailed a new chasing superstar last year in LONG RUN, who, having firmly closedPaul Nicholls’ book of fairytales by eclipsing his old warriors Denman and Kauto Star,had seemingly opened the door for Robert Waley-Cohen’s seven-year-old to dominatethe Gold Cup scene for the next two or three seasons. However, Kauto Star does notdo average, and twice this winter he has reminded the champion that he is still verymuch around, beating him fair and square both at Haydock and again in the KingGeorge at Kempton. Once an “iffy” jumper, Kauto Star has been spectacular this season, whereas Long Run, a regular client of renowned horsemaster Yogi Breisner, isstill inclined to fall into the habits he gained in France in the early part of his career byhurdling his fences. However, the way he launched himself at the last two obstacles atNewbury in his prep-race suggested that the penny is starting to drop, and, though stablemate Burton Port gave him a fright in the dress rehearsal, there is now a 10lbturnaround. Therefore, Long Run, who could start at better odds than might be anticipated if the emotional money comes for Kauto Star, looks the safer option.

Key Trends (Remainder of Day Three)

Thursday 15th March

Notes...________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

1.30pm Jewson Novices’ Steeple ChaseNoble Prince won the inaugural running of the race last year.The first two home were the first two in the market.

2.05pm Pertemps FinalSeven of the last eight winners have carried 10st 9lb or less.The last eight winners have all been double-figure prices, including two 50/1 shots.Buena Vista is going for his third straight win in the race.

4.00pm Byrne Group Plate Handicap ChaseOnly one winning favourite since 1981.The last 11 winners have all been double figure-prices.14 of the last 16 winners have carried 11st or less.

4.40pm Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap ChaseGreasepaint was the last Irish winner in 1983.10 of the last 14 winners have been double figure-prices.The last three winners have carried over 11st and Jamie Codd was on board two of them.

Key Trends (Remainder of Day Four)

Friday 16th March

Notes...

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2.05pm Vincent O’Brien County Handicap HurdleIreland have won four of the last five renewals and Willie Mullins the last two.16 of the last 20 winners have carried less than 11st.

2.40pm Albert Bartlett Novices’ HurdleThe five English winners had all won at Cheltenham that season.Ireland have won the other two runnings.

4.00pm Christie’s Foxhunter Chase Challenge CupOnly two of the last 21 winners were older than 10.Four of the last seven winners went off 20/1 or bigger.

5.15pm Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup11 of the last 12 winners carried less than 11st.Six of the last 10 winners carried either 10st or 10st 1lb.

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Documents

Cheltenham Spread Betting Guide 2012