Chemicals Appendices · financial industry personnel, to participate. ... of the chemicals industry in the UK. ... evidence assessment (REA) but a desktop research exercise deemed

Industrial Decarbonisation &Energy Efficiency Roadmapsto 2050

MARCH 2015

This report has been prepared for theDepartment of Energy and Climate Change andthe Department of Business, Innovation and Skills

Chemicals Appendices

INDUSTRIAL DECARBONISATION AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY ROADMAPS TO 2050 – CHEMICALS

Appendices Page ii

APPENDIX A METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................... 1

1. Evidence Gathering 2

2. Literature Review 3

3. Criteria for Including Literature 4

4. Technical Literature Review 6

5. Social and Business Literature Review 9

6. Interviews 9

7. Survey 16

8. Evidence Gathering Workshop 17

9. Pathways 18

10. Pathways Development and Analysis 19

11. Pathways Modelling 21

12. Options 26

13. Pathway and Action Plan Workshop 26

14. Next Steps 27

APPENDIX B FULL SOCIAL AND BUSINESS FINDINGS ...................................................................... 29

1. SWOT Outcomes 29

2. Assessing Enablers and Barriers 30

3. Detailed analysis of enablers and barriers 32

APPENDIX C FULL TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS REGISTER .................................................................... 51

APPENDIX D ADDITIONAL PATHWAYS ANALYSIS .............................................................................. 61

1. Option deployment for pathways under different scenarios 61

INDUSTRIAL DECARBONISATION AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY ROADMAP TO2050 – CHEMICALS

APPENDIX A - METHODOLOGY


Appendix A - Methodology Page 1 of 73

APPENDIX A METHODOLOGY

The overall methodology used in this project to develop a decarbonisation roadmap for the chemicals sectorconsists of four stages:

(1) Evidence gathering and processing based on literature, interviews and workshops(2) Modelling of draft pathways, including scenario testing and sensitivity analysis(3) Testing and developing final pathways(4) Creating a sector vision for 2050 with main conclusions and recommendation of Next Steps

This methodology is illustrated in Figure 1 and summarised in the report. A detailed description is given inthis Appendix.

An important aspect of the methodology has been stakeholder engagement to ensure that all relevant partieshave been invited to participate and contribute. We have worked closely with the Chemical IndustriesAssociation (CIA), the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and the Department for BusinessInnovation and Skills (BIS) to invite the appropriate industry, academic and other stakeholders, such asfinancial industry personnel, to participate.

Figure 1 Roadmap Methodology



1. Evidence Gathering

Evidence gathering included technical, and social and business, evidence, and aimed to acquire informationabout:

· Decarbonisation options (i.e. technologies)· Barriers and enablers to decarbonisation and energy efficiency· Background to the sector· Current state and future changes within the sector· Business environment and markets· Potential next steps

This evidence was required either to answer the principal questions directly, or to inform the development ofpathways and the sector vision for 2050. The evidence was developed from the literature review, interviews,surveys and information gathering workshops. By using these different sources of information, the evidencegathered could be triangulated to improve the overall research. Themes that were identified during theliterature review could subsequently be used as a focus or a starting point during the interviews andworkshops. The data from the literature could be subjected to sensitivity testing by comparing it withinformation from the interviews, surveys and workshops. In a similar way, information gaps during theinterviews, surveys and workshops could be populated using literature data.

The sources of evidence were used to develop a consolidated list of barriers and enablers fordecarbonisation, and a register of technical options for the chemicals sector. This information wassubsequently used to inform the development of a set of pathways to illustrate the decarbonisation potentialof the chemicals industry in the UK.

The evidence gathering process was supported by high levels of engagement with a wide range ofstakeholders, including industry members, trade association representatives, academics and members ofDECC and BIS.

The evidence gathering exercise was subject to inherent limitations based upon the scale of activities andsample sizes that could be conducted within the time and resources available. The literature review was notintended to be exhaustive and aimed to capture key documentation that applied to the UK. The companiesinterviewed represented over 35% of carbon emissions produced in the UK chemicals sector and capturedboth UK decision makers and technical specialists in the sector. These interviews were conducted to providegreater depth and insight to the issues faced by companies. However, because many of the companies inthe UK are globally owned, it was difficult to involve senior staff at a global corporate level. This also appliedto workshop attendees.

The identification of relevant information and data was approached from a global and UK viewpoint. Theglobal outlook examined dominant technologies and process types, global production and Carbon Dioxide(CO2) emissions (in the EU27) and the global outlook to 2050, including the implications for chemicalsproducers and consumers, and production and demand uncertainties. The UK outlook examined the sectorstructure, recent history and context including consumption, demand patterns and emissions, the businessenvironment, organisational and decision-making structures and the impacts of UK policy and regulation.The major UK chemicals producers and their key sites, dominant technologies and processes were alsoreviewed.



Options examined were (i) generic options that could apply across much of the sector (e.g. energy efficiencymeasures, waste heat recovery, fuel switching, carbon capture and storage (CCS) etc.) and (ii) process-specific options relating to major emitting processes. The process-specific options related to additionaloptions that could apply to the major emitting processes over and above the generic options (which couldalso apply to the major emitting processes). These could include modifications to existing processes, or newprocesses altogether.

2. Literature Review

A literature review was undertaken on the chemicals sector. Its aim was to help to identify options, barriersand enablers for implementing decarbonisation throughout the sector. It sought to answer the principalquestions and identify the necessary conditions for companies to invest and consider carbon managementas a strategic issue, to determine appropriate technical options for the sector.

The literature review covered over 150 documents. This was not a thorough literature review or rapidevidence assessment (REA) but a desktop research exercise deemed sufficient by the project team1 in itsbreadth and depth to capture the evidence required for the purpose of this project. Based on the table ofcontents and a quick assessment (10 to 30 minutes per document), criteria were defined to identify whichdocuments were to be used for the detailed analysis and information gathering (see 3 of APPENDIX A).Where literature was deemed significant and of good quality, it was read and results were gathered on theprincipal questions.

The review has drawn on a range of literature (published after 2000), that examines energy efficiency anddecarbonisation of the sector and also wider reviews, studies and reports deemed relevant to energy-intensive industries overall. Sector-based and academic literature was also added. The documents are listedin section 6 of the main report

The literature review was conducted in the following phases:

· Broad literature review and information/data collection· Detailed literature analysis on technical points of note· Identification of decarbonisation options and associated drivers/barriers· Information on adoption rate (ADOP), applicability (APP), improvement potential, ease of

implementation, capital expenditure (capex), Return on Investment (ROI) and the saving potential for alloptions where available

· Construction of decarbonisation options list for short- (2015-2020), medium- (2020-2030) and long-term(2030-2050)

· Provision of information on strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats, enablers and barriers. Thisinformation was used in the information gathering workshop as a starting point for discussion. It providedevidence to support the development of a consolidated list of enablers and barriers for decarbonisationand, subsequently, to inform the list of the possible technological options and pathways that would leadto decarbonisation

1 DECC, BIS and the consultants of PB and DNV GL.



DetailsMain focus(all in the chemicals sector)

Energy efficiency improvementsCO2 and decarbonisationFuel switching

Secondary focus Drivers, barriers, policyCCS

Excluded Carbon offsettingTechnologies not applicable to the UK chemicals sector

Table 1: Scope of review

3. Criteria for Including Literature

As described earlier, the literature review followed a quick assessment process. General criteria used forincluding/excluding literature are shown in Table 2.

Considerations Final criteria

Literature value

Preference was given to officialpublications, such as academic papers,existing roadmap documents orgovernmental publications. Informationfrom equipment manufacturers (greyliterature) was interesting as sector-related info. However, as there is noobjective standard with which to comparethis information, no extensive search inthis domain was executed. The greyliterature was used as input to theworkshops.

Preference was given to publishedpapers and published officialreports.

Time period to becovered

Given the changing global competitiveenvironment for the sector (e.g. thegrowth in production in Asia, theemergence of shale gas in the US), whichare likely to have affected the context inwhich the sector operates, preferencewas given to information which was (very)recently published. Some valuable, butolder, information was included, where itwas considered to be still relevant to thesector.

No constraint was set on the date ofthe publication, but olderinformation was given a lowerquality rating, due to its lowerrelevance.

Geographical area

Preference was given to the UK industry,with a broader look to Europe alsoincluded. Other geographies were used toprovide background information whereneeded.

No geographical exclusion criteriawere used, but information on theUK chemicals sector was given ahigher quality rating, due to itshigher relevance.

sector specifics

Given the specific nature of the UKchemicals sector, some technologiescould be discarded, as there are no plantsusing them.

Options not relevant to theprocesses used in the UK wereexcluded.

Language

As the majority of information is inEnglish, no special attention was given topublications in other languages.

The search was limited to papers inEnglish.

Table 2: High level selection criteria



For academic literature, the primary source was ScienceDirect. Of the documents that came on top in thesearch result (typically the first 25 papers), a skim-read of the abstract decided on the relevance of thepaper.

A total of more than 150 papers, official publications and grey literature2 documents on chemicals werecollected using this search methodology. The quality, source and objectivity of each document was analysedby reading the abstract (where present), followed by a skim-read of the document.

Each document was given a score on different aspects of relevance:

· Category: is the content of the document focusing on technology, drivers/barriers or policy-related aspects

· Affiliation: what is the source of the document: academia, governance or is it sector-based· Financial-technical evaluation criteria present (YES/NO)· Overall quality of the document (+/++/+++)· Relevance for the UK chemicals sector (0/+/++/+++)· Information on technological aspects (0/+/++/+++)· Information on drivers and barriers (0/+/++/+++)· Information on policy/legislation (0/+/++/+++)· Document relevant for developing scenarios (0/+/++/+++)

Based on all these aspects, the document was given a relevance classification: “high”, “medium high”,“medium low” or “low”.

The approach to selecting and categorising literature is depicted in Table 3.

Table 3: Diagram of the selecting and categorising process

All documents categorised as “high” and “medium high” were read in detail, assessed and then included inthe literature review process. The documents categorised as “medium low” and “low” were read andassessed in part and only included if a significant reason for inclusion was found.

2 Grey literature refers to sources such as industry presentations, case study reports etc. that may not havebeen formally published or peer-reviewed.

Definition of scope and boundaries

Academic literature(sciencedirect) Grey literature Websites &

magazines

Retained papers being categorized

Selection of best papers Selection of best info selection

Technologyfocussed

Drivers &barriers

HIGH MEDIUMHIGH

MEDIUMLOW

LOW



Energy saving measures (if present) were listed from each document included in the review process and thislist was used to construct a decarbonisation options list for short- (2015-2020), medium- (2020-2030) andlong-term (2030-2050) timelines.

NOTE: Additional and specific information/data was added to the overall review process from e.g.stakeholder input datasheets and as a result of following citation trails, expert knowledge and furthertargeted searches and recommendations.

Method of Analysing Literature

The following method was used to go through the selected literature:

1. Reading and noting of the abstract (or summary) followed by review of the document in detail toextract any relevant information on sector description/outlook and information/data on energysavings and decarbonisation measures.

2. Relevant information (if appropriate) was extracted from other sources (or referred to) and documentcitation trails (if appropriate) were checked for further relevant information/data.

3. Incorporation of the documents into the literature review and collating of the most relevantinformation/data on energy saving and decarbonisation measures.

4. Energy savings, where possible, were preferably extracted as a percentage, or as a specific energysaving per relevant unit (e.g. kWh/tonne of product).

5. For financial savings, the amounts were kept in their original currency.

4. Technical Literature Review

Identifying Literature

The primary aim of the technical literature review was to gather evidence on potential technologies that couldcontribute to the decarbonisation of energy use and improved energy efficiency for the chemicals sector inthe UK.

In parallel to the above review process, a number of key academics were identified to participate and provideperspectives on current research and to provide additional input and feedback. This was to ensure that theappropriate literature and research had been identified, screened and included.

Research Questions

The evidence review addressed the following research questions:

TECHNICAL POTENTIAL: What existing research is there on the technical potential for improving theenergy efficiency and lowering the carbon footprint of the chemicals industry to 2050? What generic andspecific technical measures exist and what is their potential?

TECHNOLOGY COSTS: What research is available on the costs of these technical measures, and whatdoes it tell us?

DRIVERS/ENABLERS: What does research tell us about the drivers/enablers for organisations in thechemicals sector to decarbonise their energy use? What are the perceived benefits for industrialorganisations to decarbonise their heat use?

BARRIERS: What does research tell us about the barriers for organisations limiting effective decarbonisationof their energy use?

PRINCIPAL QUESTIONS: Check for other links to issues raised by principal questions.



Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) ANALYSIS: Check for any information usingterms strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities.

Information found by the consortium during technical literature review

A number of additional documents were identified during the course of the literature review. Thesedocuments were identified through Google and by following up references identified in initial documents orby the chemicals sector team. The search terms used in Google were:

· “Chemicals” AND “decarbonisation”· “Chemicals” AND “energy efficiency”· “Chemicals” AND “emissions”· “Chemicals” AND “energy”

In addition, specific sub-sector names (e.g. “olefins”, “titanium dioxide” etc.) were used in place of“chemicals” where required to fill gaps in the data.



The results of the technical literature review are summarised in Table: 4

Summary of strength of evidence on energy efficiency in chemicals sector

Division Number of information sources reviewed Strength of the evidence

Academicsearches

Direct websitesearches

Expert revieweradditions Grey literature Total HIGH MEDIUM HIGH MEDIUM LOW LOW

General 3 21 2 1 27 2 11 12 2

Technologies 3 7 2 1 13 2 4 6 1

CO2 and CCS 0 5 2 1 8 2 5 1 0

Social and Business 7 3 1 7 18 2 9 2 5

Table: 4 Overview of literature review

A complete reference list is available in section 6 of the report.



5. Social and Business Literature Review

In addition to the work and processes described in the technical literature review, the social and businessliterature review key points and additions are:

· We reviewed over 20 documents (some of them the same as the technical literature review) tocreate a broad overview of the sector SWOT and identification of drivers and barriers to energyefficiency improvement and decarbonisation, and identification of main uncertainties in generic andbusiness environment;

· The literature review included documents listed in the Invitation To Tender as well as grey literaturefrom trade associations, companies, DECC and BIS. Specific search terms were used which wereagreed with DECC to identify the key enablers and barriers;

· We used a systematic and structured approach to the literature review. The criteria for assessing therelevance of the literature were defined to determine whether they address the key principalquestions. The literature identified was analysed using a quick assessment process to identify themost relevant information on SWOT, enablers and barriers to decarbonisation; and

· Based on table of contents and a quick assessment, we presented the results in a table as below.The analysis resulted in the identification of documents to be used for detailed analysis andinformation gathering. Where literature was deemed significant and of good quality (three stars orabove), the literature was read and reviewed and results were gathered on the principal questionareas.

Year

Relevance

Quality

Characteristics

SWO

T,Drivers

andB

arriers

Uncertainties

futuretrends

Options

pathways

Title 1 +++ ++ 0 ++++ ++ 0 ++++… ++ +++ ++ 0 +++ + +… + ++ + 0 ++++ ++ 0Title 10 ++ ++++ +++ ++ +++ +++ ++

Table 5: Literature review assessment process

0= very low, ++++ very high

The outcome of the literature review was a comprehensive list of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities,threats, enablers and barriers which were used in the information gathering workshop as a starting point fordiscussion.

6. Interviews

The information gathering stage of the project also involved a series of interviews. These aimed to obtainfurther details on the different subsectors within the UK chemicals sector and to gain a deeper understandingof the principal questions, including how companies make investment decisions, how advanced technologiesare financed, what companies’ strategic priorities are and where climate change sits within this. Theinterviews were also used to refine the top list of enablers and barriers identified from the literature review,which feeds into the evidence gathering survey and workshop.

The interviews focused on the largest emitters based on information from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme(EU ETS) and the UK Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (UK PRTR) datasets. Of the companies who



originally were selected in consultation with DECC and CIA to be interviewed, two declined to participate.Two companies provided input electronically. Interviews were held with:

CompanyName Interviewee role3 Sub-sector Size

INEOS Director Olefins, Acrylonitrile, Chlorine Large(over 500employees)

GrowHow Manager and Director Ammonia LargeSABIC Chairman Olefins LargeBOC Manager Hydrogen LargeTatachemicals

Director Soda ash Large

BPchemicals

Manager Acetic acid Large

Lucite Manager Methyl methacrylate LargeCristal Director Titanium dioxide Large

Table 6: List of interviewees

Comments collated via CIA, the workshop and subsequent email correspondence were also used as part ofthe evidence gathering process to supplement the interviews.

Interviewees were interviewed using the “Interview Protocol” template, developed in liaison with DECC andBIS. The Interview Protocol was used to ensure consistency across interviews, to ensure that the interviewscould be used to fill gaps in the literature review, identify key success stories of decarbonisation, and extractthe key social and business barriers of moving to low-carbon technologies. The “Interview Protocol” can befound further in this Section.

Evidence Gaps

As a number of key UK chemicals producers were not able to participate in the information gatheringworkshop. A number of additional technical interviews were agreed in order to ensure that options related tothese producers’ processes were fully considered. Interviews were held with GrowHow, SABIC UK andIneos, covering the ammonia and olefins sectors. Discussions also took place with Ineos Nitriles(acrylonitrile) who indicated that they had no further information to add to the generic options presented atthe workshop.. These interviews helped to refine the options ahead of the pathway development process.

Assumptions

Going into each interview, a number of assumptions were made to refine the approach to be taken:

1. Results from the literature review are available and partially or well covered. Well-covered areas arenot addressed during the interview. Results may include:

a. Option register of technical options.b. sector and subsector characteristics.c. sector SWOT analysis.d. Main trends and drivers.e. Some hurdles to and barriers for change and/or energy or decarbonisation.

2. Preparation of interviews includes rapid review of website and annual reports information related tobusiness and energy and emissions reduction strategies.

3 managers include site managers, general managers, energy managers, utility managers



3. The technical review covered any gaps in data or information (e.g. specifically related to thatcompany’s data) which may be appropriate to obtain during the interview process.

4. Interviewee role is reviewed prior to conducting the interview.5. All interviews are conducted by interviewers in their own proficient way of dealing with issues around

openness, consent, and follow-up.6. There might be follow-up with interviewees to obtain additional information discussed during the

interview.

Interview template

We identified the proposed interviewees in liaison with CIA, DECC and BIS in order to achieve a goodcoverage of the sector. The methodology for identifying the appropriate number of interviews was thefollowing:

· Identify the number of subsectors by the SIC (standard industrial classification) codes listed in theinvitation to tender (ITT) or another appropriate subsector division;

· Look at ways to combine subsectors based on similarities in products or production techniques topotentially reduce the number of subsectors; and

· Cross validate the subsectors according to the following criteria:o Size: medium or large – there are no (small and medium sized enterprises (SME’s) in the

group of companies that covers 80% of the emissions in the sectors where we are notperforming a survey;

o Innovation level of companies such as front runners or laggards;o Whether headquarter is in UK or abroad; ando The level of integration of the production units in the supply chain (non-integrated,

somewhat integrated, fully integrated).

Preparation

1. Interviewee identification

Interviewees are identified in liaison with DECC and BIS in order to achieve good coverage of each sector.The steps taken to identify relevant candidates are:

· Identify the number of subsectors using SIC codes listed in the ITT or another appropriate subsectordivision

· Where possible, subsectors were grouped based on similarities in products or production techniquesto reduce the number of subsectors

· Identify which subsectors and/or organisations were most significant using the following criteria:o Size (e.g. by revenue or emissions)o Innovation level of companieso Whether headquartered in UKo Level of supply chain integration

· Select candidates best positioned to represent the views of the breadth of subsectors

2. Interview preparation

The focus of each interview is to be informed by research of the key issues and challenges, successes andopportunities faced by each sector and an understanding of the specific knowledge held by the interviewee.The research incorporates:

· Social business literature review



· The findings of the technical review and decarbonisation options identified· Review of company websites, annual reports and other materials relating business and emissions

reduction strategies· Assessment of the role of the interviewee and extensiveness of their knowledge· Review of website, ONS data, IBIS data and annual reports information related to business and

energy and emissions reduction strategies.· Development of the options register

3. Interview format

Introductions

Interviewer sets out the project context and interview agenda.

Goals

Interviewer introduces the goals of the project as follows:

1. To determine the current state, ambitions or plans, successes and problems or challenges of each ofthe interviewee’s organisation or sector with regard to energy use, energy reduction and carbonreduction:

a. Identify and analyse examples of the implementation of energy and carbon reductionprojects to deliver insight in the problems and barriers at a company level

b. Develop an understanding of the decision-making processes

c. Develop an understanding of the relationship between energy/carbon strategy and businessstrategy

2. To develop insight into the energy and carbon reduction options available to the organisations orsector and their potential:

a. As currently deployed by organisations

b. As an option to be deployed in the future

3. Understanding of the main drivers and barriers for change in general and with regard to energy andcarbon reduction in the sector

4. To develop insight into the specific characteristics (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities andthreats) of subsectors (where required)

Existing and future strategy for energy and carbon reduction

Interviewer to engage the interviewee on the focus of their organisations energy and carbon strategyusing the following questions:

1. What is your organisations strategy for energy and carbon reduction? (If the strategy is clear,summarise and ask for confirmation). Cover the following sub-questions:

a What are the main elements of the strategy?

b How far in advance are you planning the company’s energy efficiency strategy?



c In your opinion, what are the enablers and/or challenges for the strategy?

i) Please specify why:

1. Constrained finance for funding for investments internally or externally

2. Etc.

2. Do you consider your organisation as a leader (innovator or early adopter) or as a follower (early,late majority) on energy and carbon reduction? Cover the following sub-questions:

a. Can you give one or more example(s) of actions undertaken by members of your organisationthat fit with the stated market position?

b. Do you expect the organisation’s position with regard to energy and carbon reduction tochange?

c. Please state why your organisation is or is not a leader.

3. What energy and carbon projects have you implemented the last five years and why? What energyand carbon projects have you not implemented the last five years and why?

Guidance for interviewer: use the prepared options register (prepared by technical lead and sectorteam) to identify energy and carbon reduction options. For parts of the list that are not covered,challenge the interviewee to identify options that could be valuable. With front runners placeemphasise on more innovative options.

4. How important is energy and carbon reduction for your organisation? Please address how thecarbon and energy strategy fits into wider business strategy and the extent to which it is embedded.

Stories (interviewees not self-identified as leaders)

Interviewer to lead discussion of a story or example related to an energy or carbon reduction project thatwent well and another that did not

Stories: Questions for leaders (only for self-identified leaders)

Interviewer to lead discussion of a story or example related to an energy or carbon reduction projectusing the questions below:

1. What energy and carbon reduction options have been implemented, why, when and where?

2. Can you tell the story of a project from the initial idea generation until now? Ensure this covers howideas were generated (i.e. the step before any appraisal of options takes place):

a. What was the timeline, sequence of events?

b. Cover: idea generation, feasibility study (technological, financial, and organisation), decisionmaking, board presentation, and implementation

c. What was your process for making a case for an investment and who was involved?Consider: key factors during decision making, required payback, main perceived or actualrisks, influence of alternative options for investment, financial and non-financial factors

d. What were the critical moments (breakthroughs, barriers)?



3. What was the original position of the main stakeholders to the energy carbon project? Did theirattitudes towards the subject change? How?

4. Why do you consider this story as a success or an area for improvement?

5. What are the main conclusions you can draw from this story - positive and negative?

a. Lessons for future action?

b. Main drivers and barriers for energy and carbon reduction in your company?

c. Lessons for the way of organising energy and carbon reduction options within youcompany?

d. Conclusions regarding potential reduction targets on short-, medium- and long-term?

e. How well did the carbon reduction option work in practice, in relation to the anticipatedperformance?

6. Can any reports or presentations on this innovation be supplied?

Business Environment: value chain and capacity for innovation

Interviewer to ask the following questions:

1. What do you consider to be the main drivers for energy and carbon reduction in the sector?

a. What are main characteristics of the main parts of the production process? Following thestructure of the options register:

i. Ask specific questions on any elements not covered in the desk research

ii. Ask specific questions on the characteristics of the subsector (input, process,output, energy use, value chain, competitive forces)

b. What do you perceive as the strengths and weaknesses of your value chain?

c. What have been the main changes in the value chain over the last ten years?

d. What innovations do you expect to see in the value chain in the coming 10/20/30 years?

e. What are possible game changers for the value chain/ or sector?

2. Main innovators or early adopters in the sector:

a. Who influences action (whom or what are they listening to? Why?

i. Organisations and people within organisations (role or function)?

ii. Within or outside the sector (other sectors, academics, non-governmentorganisations, politicians, etc.)?



3. Questions on the dimensions of innovations4 . These questions will be on a multiple choice list(answer categories strongly disagree, disagree, neither agree or not agree, agree, strongly agree5).After filling the list, ask for clarifications and examples that underpin answers in the following areas:

a. Technical: networks with other companies, academics, knowledge of competitive andemerging technologies, participation in research and development (R&D), pilots,experiments

b. Human capital: improvement projects, multi-disciplinary teams, training oninnovation/change/improvement

c. Organisation: horizontal communication lines, clear goals or responsibilities, customer focus

d. Management: clear performance criteria for projects, structural follow up of mainimprovement projects in management meeting, clear status information on projects

4. (Optional) Please set out a characteristic story of a (successful) sector and subsector thatimplemented a change/innovation related to energy or carbon reduction. This question should beasked if consortia or sector teams feel a need to get a better overview of success stories. Thequestion is relevant because in most business environments managers are influenced most by theirpeers.

Enablers and barriers for sector change

Interviewer to lead a summary discussion of the main drivers and barriers for sector change (general andor specific for energy and carbon reduction) using the following questions:

1. What do you consider the main drivers for change in the sector?

a. Please state specific drivers in the following fields: social, policy, technical regulatory factors

b. Interviewer to review the pre-prepared list of main driver and check seek further detail fromthe interviewee

2. What do you consider the main barriers for change in the sector?

a. Please state specific barriers in the following fields: social, policy, technical regulatoryfactors

Interviewer to review the pre-prepared list of main barriers and seek further detail from the interviewee

Function of Interview Template and Protocol:

The Interview Template was designed to collect, build upon and collaborate specific answers to principalquestions which are not covered by results of desk research. The general timeline of one interview isillustrated below:

Intro 5-10 minutesCurrent state and plans energy and decarbonisation 20-30 minutesStories of energy and decarbonisation 30-45 minutes

4 Questions are asked to get a better (and broad overview of space or possibilities for change (not only including investments but alsothe change that potential of option will materialise.5 This way of working is chosen to be able to just cover the field quickly and get a quick first idea what they consider the importantaspects so we can spend as much time as possible on this. We normally don’t use the survey results to collect quantitative answers tothese.



Business environment and innovation power 15-20 minutesDrivers and hurdles for sector change (to test survey/workshop questionnaire) If time left

Table 7: General interview timeline

7. Survey

As part of the evidence gathering exercise and to help build a list of the enablers and barriers, a shortbespoke survey was conducted with some of the UK chemical manufacturers.

The survey was distributed to general managers and energy/environment managers from memberorganisations of the CIA. The questions in the survey were tailored to chemicals producers, and weredeveloped in consultation with the CIA and DECC. These aimed to:

a. Collect background information such as role, size of organisation represented and innovationadoption appetite;

b. Assess the impact on the implementation of energy and decarbonisation technologies of 15 enablersand 15 barriers identified from the literature review and interviews;

c. Prioritise top 5 Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats of the sector; andd. Assess current conditions and capacity of the organisations to respond to decarbonisation.

Survey Questions:1. What Subsector are you working in or what is your relation to the chemical industry?2. What is the number of employees within your organisation?3. What is your function within your organisation?4. How would you describe your company’s position in the sector regarding carbon and

energy reduction? Please see the definitions below for reference.5. What impact do the following enablers have in relation to implementing energy and

decarbonisation technologies in your organisation? (A list of 15 enablers identifiedfrom the literature review was provided for assessment).

6. Are there any additional enablers that you think are relevant? Please provide detailsof these and an impact score based on the same scale.

7. What impact do the following barriers have in relation to implementing energy anddecarbonisation technologies in your organisation? (A list of 15 barriers identifiedfrom the literature review and interviews was provided for assessment).

8. Are there any additional barriers that you think are relevant? Please provide detailsof these and an impact score based on the same scale.

9. Please select the 5 strengths that are the most relevant to your organisation. (A listof 15 strengths identified from the literature review and interviews was provided forassessment).

10. Please add any other strengths of your organisation that are not included in the list.11. Please select the 5 weaknesses that are the most relevant to your organisation. (A

list of 12 weaknesses identified from the literature review and interviews wasprovided for assessment).

12. Please add any other weaknesses of your organisation that are not included in thelist.

13. Please select the 5 opportunities that your company could potentially explore tomaximise the implementation of energy and decarbonisation technologies. (A list of15 opportunities identified from the literature review and interviews was provided forassessment).

14. Please add any other opportunities of your organisation that are not included in thelist.

15. Please select the 5 threats that will potentially hinder your organisation inimplementing energy and decarbonisation technologies. (A list of 15 threatsidentified from the literature review and interviews was provided for assessment).



16. Please add any other threats of your organisation that are not included in the list.17. Please assess to what degree each statement is true for your organisation.

· We have well defined goals/objectives and/or targets on energy anddecarbonisation;

· Our goals/objectives are translated to targets at site level;· We have a systematic decision-making process for new initiatives with

regards to energy and decarbonisation;· Our decision-making process works well for new energy and

decarbonisation initiatives;· We track progress of energy/carbon improvement projects in management

meetings;· We have specific roles or allocated responsibilities within the company with

regards to energy or decarbonisation;· We have strong communication and information sharing channels that

support the successful implementation of options with regards to energy anddecarbonisation;

· We understand which energy and decarbonisation technologies can beimplemented in our organization; and

· We have sufficiently skilled workforce to implement and handle energy anddecarbonisation technologies.

Table 8: List of survey questions

For questions 5, 6, 7 and 8, respondents were given the following impact scale for assessing each enablerand barrier: (-1) negative impact, (0) no impact, (1) no-to-low impact, (2) low-to-medium impact, (3) medium-to-high impact and (4) very high impact.

Out of the invited participants, 17 responses were received across the various subsectors.

The resulting impact scores for each enabler and barrier can be found in Appendix B. The percentage ofrespondents who selected the impact level has been provided for each enabler and barrier.

8. Evidence Gathering Workshop

The information gathering stage of the project also involved Workshop 1, the ‘Information GatheringWorkshop’.

We worked with CIA, DECC and BIS to identify the most relevant attendees for the workshop. The researchwork already undertaken as part of the literature review and interviews were used to inform the content of theworkshop.

The workshop was divided into four key activities:

The first activity focused on reviewing the potential generic technological options for decarbonisation andidentifying the enablers, barriers, advantages, and disadvantages of each. Workshop participants weredivided into four groups. In order to allow time for reasonable discussion of individual options, the genericoptions were divided before the workshop into either ‘Top 10’ or secondary decarbonisation technologyoptions. Each group received half of the ‘top 10’ options for discussion, as well as all the secondary options.The participants at each group were encouraged to separate into two subgroups: one to discuss the ‘top 10’generic options and another to act as ‘hunter gatherers’ checking the secondary options. After the initialdiscussions, all of the participants reconvened at each group in order to provide a summary of theirdiscussions and vote on the technologies that each individual felt would help the sector to decarbonise themost, and on the technologies that they felt would significantly impact on the energy efficiency of the sector.



The second activity focused on the social and business enablers and barriers for decarbonisation in general.Each of the groups was allocated a category (e.g. market and economy, finance) of enablers and barriers,based on the top enablers and barriers that were voted on from the survey responses. Thus, each grouphad one or two categories and 4 to 6 enablers and barriers to discuss within that category. Participants wereasked to discuss the following questions:

1. How powerful is the impact of this enabler / barrier on decarbonisation and energy efficiency in yourbusiness?

2. Why are the barriers difficult to handle and what was the contribution of the enablers?3. How can we overcome the barriers and maximise the enablers?

After the workshop participants had discussed these questions, as a group, the participants were asked toassign or negotiate an overall impact score for each enabler and barrier. In some cases, two scores wereallocated as the enabler was seen as a barrier e.g. rising energy costs. Group facilitators were asked to notedown the reasoning behind the voting, and to write down any enablers and barriers for that category whichwere missing. The outcomes of this session are being fed into the options register, pathways and actionplans.

The third activity involved discussion of the process-specific options assigned to each group, along withfurther discussions of the generic technology options, with the aim of including identifying the adoption rate,applicability, improvement potential, ease of implementation, capex, ROI, saving potential and timeline forthe different options. This was done through breakout sessions in each group.

The fourth activity involved a breakout session where each group was asked to develop a pathway toillustrate its view of the maximum technical decarbonisation possible in the sector through to 2050 and toplace the available options on a timeline to indicate when they could be deployed.

We recognise that the voting process and timeline development sessions were based on initial reactions andthat not everyone participating may not have the expertise required on specific technical solutions todecarbonisation. Therefore, the outcome from the workshop is used to inform the remainder of the sectoralanalysis; it is not taken as an absolute technology selection.

The outcome of the evidence gathering workshop (and all evidence gathering stages of the project) was aconsolidated list of enablers and barriers and a more complete list of possible technological options with asuitable timeline for their implementation.

9. Pathways

A pathway is a combination of different decarbonisation options, deployed under the assumed constraints ofeach scenario that would achieve a decarbonisation level that falls into one of the following decarbonisationbands:

· 20-40% CO2 reduction pathway· 40-60% CO2 reduction pathway· 60-80% CO2 reduction pathway

In addition, two purely technology-driven pathways were developed: a Business as Usual (BAU) pathwayand a Maximum Technical (Max Tech) pathway.



The BAU pathway is based on continued roll-out of technologies that are currently being deployed across thesector.

Max Tech represents a pathway where all technically feasible options are deployed when they becomeavailable without cost being a limitation, but while also being reasonably foreseeable. Reasonablyforeseeable in this context means that the technology has been demonstrated at least at pilot scale and thatthe envisaged deployment is not based on unrealistic requirements e.g. the installation of a CO2 pipelinenetwork connecting every chemical plant in the country.

The approach taken by the pathways development team was to develop the BAU pathway and Max Techpathway first. These provided the “boundary” pathways representing the lowest and highest potential levelsof overall decarbonisation. The deployment of options within these pathways was then examined and furtherpathways were developed. One of these included a “Max Tech (no biomass)” pathway which was developedas a sensitivity when it became clear that the Max Tech pathway included a significant contribution frombiomass. Under Max Tech (no biomass) it was assumed that no low-carbon biomass is available and sosome other options were deployed more extensively.

10. Pathways Development and Analysis

Overview

Pathways were developed in an iterative manual process in order to facilitate the exploration of uncertainrelationships that would be difficult to express analytically. This process started with the data collected in theevidence gathering phase. This data was then challenged and enriched through discussions with the sectorteam and in the first workshop.

The principal vehicle for developing the pathways was a pathways development meeting held betweenParsons Brinckerhoff, the CIA and DECC in early September 2014. Logic reasoning (largely driven by optioninteraction and scenario constraints), sector knowledge and technical expertise were applied when selectingoptions for the different pathways under each scenario. For example, incremental options with lower costsand higher levels of technical readiness were selected for the lower decarbonisation bands, whereas more“disruptive” options were selected for the higher decarbonisation bands in order to reach the desired levels ofdecarbonisation. These pathways were challenged by the sector team, modelled and assessed under thethree scenarios and finally challenged by the stakeholders participating in the second workshop. Thisworkshop feedback was then taken into account and final pathways were developed. All quantitative dataand references were detailed in the options register and relevant worksheets of the model.

It is important to keep in mind that the pathways results are the outcome of a model. As with all models theaccuracy of the results is based on the quality of the input data. There are uncertainties associated with theinput data and the output should therefore be seen as indicative and used to support the vision and nextsteps, not necessarily to drive it. Also the model was a simplification of reality, and there are likely to be otherconditions which are not modelled.

The analysis only produced results (pathways) which were iterative inputs of the model operator, without anyoptimisation.

Process

1. The gathered evidence (from literature review, sector team discussions, stakeholder feedback andjudgement) was consolidated into a condensed list of options.



2. Timing and readiness of options was developed by the sector team and during the first workshop,based on evidence from literature, sector knowledge and technical expertise.

3. BAU and Max Tech options were chosen and rolled out to the maximum level and rate allowableunder the current trends scenario.

4. Options were added to the BAU pathway or reduced or taken out of the Max Tech pathway untileach intermediary pathway band was reached.

5. Technical constraints and interactions across the list of options were taken into account whenselecting options and roll-out.

6. The roll-out was adjusted to account for the output of the social and business research as well ascurrent investment cycles.

7. pathways were modelled under the current trends scenario, accounting for changes in productionand the carbon emissions of the electricity grid.

8. The results were reviewed and modifications made to the deployment, applicability and reductionpotential for any options that appeared to be giving an unexpected or unusual result.

9. Further changes to option choices were made as required through iterations of points 5-9.10. Revised pathways under current trends were produced for presentation at the second workshop.11. Feedback on pathways was used to make any further necessary adjustments to the pathways under

current trends.12. The final pathways developed under current trends were used as a basis for the development of

pathways under challenging world and collaborative growth scenarios;13. Deployment of each option under challenging world and collaborative growth was adjusted according

to the constraints of each scenario, including the removal of options that would not be likely underchallenging world and the deployment of additional options that would become feasible undercollaborative growth; and

14. Roll-out for each option was adjusted within the technical and scenario constraints in order to reacheach pathway band where possible (note that not all pathway bands are possible under somescenarios).

The options register is provided in Appendix C.

Deployment of Options

For each pathway, options were selected and deployed over time according to their technical readiness,timing constraints, and those most likely to allow the pathway band to be achieved. This process occurrediteratively, involving the sector team, Trade Association and other Stakeholders (who contributed via thesecond workshop). The sector Lead provided an expert view on whether the options identified in eachpathway produced a feasible pathway.

As described within the pathways section of the report, different technologies were included within eachbanded pathway under each scenario in order to meet the pathway band under each scenario.

The selection and deployment of options accounted for evidence from the social and business research, forexample which options could be deployed without any changes to policy and where the roll-out of optionsmay be slowed or curtailed by identified barriers or accelerated by enablers.

Option Interaction

There were a number of possible ways in which options could interact with each other. These interactiontypes, and how they were dealt with in the development of pathways, are described below:



· One option excludes another: This is taken into account by the user in the roll-out inputs in the OptionSelector by ensuring that no exclusive options are rolled out to a conflicting level in the same timeperiod.

· One option depends upon another being adopted: This is taken into account by the user in the roll-out section of the Option Selector by ensuring that if any option requires a precursor, then this precursoris rolled out to the appropriate level.

· Options are independent and act in parallel: The “Minimum Interaction” pathway curve assumes thatall options are independent and their effect on energy or emissions are therefore incremental.

· Options improve a common energy or emission stream and act in series: The “MaximumInteraction” pathway curve assumes that the saving from each option reduces the remaining energy oremissions for downstream options to act upon.

The pathways curves therefore included a “Maximum Interaction” and a “Minimum Interaction” curve. Theactual pathway curve would lie between these two extremes.

Evidence Not Used in Pathways Modelling

Specific energy use of processes was considered constant in the modelling, whereas they are actuallydependent on the load factor (production level) of the equipment. Increasing the production level of existingequipment would increase efficiency (in terms of kWh/tonne of product or Mt CO2/tonne of product), whichshould be taken into account when calculating emissions. However, a full bottom-up model would beneeded, which was beyond the scope of this work.

The options were modelled with a fixed CO2 and fuel saving as input values. As technologies mature, it islikely that these values would increase. This was not taken into account in the model, as the uncertainty ofthat development is high.

The adoption rates and applicability rates were used to inform deployment, but without a full bottom-upmodel implemented on a site-by-site basis, it was difficult to link these parameters directly to investmentcycles.

11. Pathways Modelling

Scenarios

Modelling pathways starts with the development of scenarios. A scenario is a specific set of conditionsexternal to the sector that would directly or indirectly affect the ability of the sector to decarbonise. Anexample of a condition in a scenario was the emissions factor of the electricity grid. Where appropriate,conditions were described qualitatively through annual trends. The scenarios analysis also includedqualitative descriptions of exogenous drivers which were difficult to quantify, or for which analyticalrelationships to quantitative factors were indefinable.

For each pathway, the following three scenarios were tested: current trends, challenging world andcollaborative growth. Scenario parameters are shown in Table 9 below.

Current Trends

The current trends scenario projected moderate UK and global growth. Alongside this, international policieson climate change were assumed to develop, gradually but effectively driving down emissions.



New low-carbon generation technologies were assumed to progressively decarbonise the electricity grid to100 g/kWh by 2030.

Chemicals production was assumed to increase by 1% annually through to 2050 in response to moderateUK and global growth. Unilateral climate change policies in the UK/EU were assumed to place a constrainton the growth of the UK sector.

Challenging World

The challenging world scenario was characterised by lower global growth rates. Climate change wasassumed to have a lower profile than at present, so that there would be less effective action to reduceemissions.


The chemicals industry was subject to lower global growth rates and weaker international trade, leading to adecline of 0.5% per year in UK production over the period. Lower levels of investment and innovation werealso assumed as a result. Lower production levels lead to lower emissions, before any decarbonisationoptions are deployed.

Collaborative Growth

The collaborative growth scenario was represented by higher levels of global growth and concerted action toreduce carbon emissions.


The UK chemicals industry sees growth at 2.5% per year, enabling higher levels of investment andinnovation.



Challenging world Current trends collaborative growth

International consensus National self-interest Modest Consistent, coordinated efforts

International economiccontext

More limited growth, some unstablemarkets, weakening of international tradein commodities

Slow growth in EU, stronger in world,relatively stable markets

Stronger growth in EU, stable markets,strong international trade.

Resource availability andprices

Strong competition, High VolatilityHigh price trends.

Competitive pressure on resources. Somevolatile pricesCentral price trends.

Competitive pressure on resources. SomeVolatile pricesCentral price trends.

International agreementson climate change

No new agreements. Compliance withsome agreements delayed

Slow progress on new agreements onemission reductions, all existingagreements adhered to.

Stronger worldwide agreements onemission reductions, consistent targets forall countries

General TechnicalInnovation Slow innovation and limited application

Modest innovation, incidentalbreakthroughs

Concerted efforts lead to broad range ofearly breakthroughs onNano, bio, green and information andcommunication technologies (ICT).

Attitude of end consumersto sustainability and

energy efficiency

Consumer interest in green products onlyif price competitive. Limited interest inenergy efficiency.

Limited consumer demand for greenproducts, efficiency efforts limited toeconomically viable improvements

Consumer willing to pay extra forsustainable, low carbon products. Strongefforts to energy efficiency even where notcost effective.

Collaboration betweensectors and organisations

Minimal joint effort, opportunistic,defensive

Only incidental, opportunistic, short termcooperation

Well supported shared and symbioticrelationships

Demographics (worldoutlook)

Declining slowly in the westHigher growth elsewhere

Declining slowly in the westModest growth elsewhere

Stable in the westSlowing growth elsewhere



Challenging world Current trends collaborative growth

World energy demand andsupply outlook

Significant growth in demand with strongcompetition for resources. Highdependence on imported fossil fuels

Balanced but demand growth dependenton supplies of fossil fuels from new fields.

Growing demands balanced by stronggrowth in supply of renewable energy,slowly declining importance of fossil fuels.

UK Economic outlook Weaker Office of Budget Responsibility(OBR) growth assumption. Current OBR growth assumption High OBR growth assumptions

Carbon intensity ofelectricity

Weakest trend of electricity carbonintensity reduction200g/kWh at 2030

Stronger trend of electricity carbonintensity reduction100g/kWh at 2030

Rapid decline in electricity carbon intensity50g/kWh at 2030

Price of electricity Could be higher or lower Central prices Likely to be higher

Fossil Fuel Higher and volatile fuel pricesUpdated energy production (UEP) high

UEP central UEP central?

Carbon Prices UEP low carbon price UEP central carbon price UEP high carbon prices

CCS availability Technology develops slowly, onlybecoming established by 2040

Technology does not become establisheduntil 2030

Technology becomes proven andeconomic by 2020

Low carbon processtechnology

New technology viability delayed by 10years

New technology economically viable asexpected

New technology viability achieved early

Table 9: Summary of scenario context and specific assumptions applicable to the scenarios

The application of these scenarios to the UK chemicals sector provided the sector-specific trends shown in Table 10 below. These were used to inform thedevelopment of the pathways.



Challenging world Current trends Collaborative growth

Chemical sector productiongrowth p.a.

-0.5% 1% 2.5%

Opportunities for growth · UK shale gas becomes available andprovides a degree of feedstock security

· Slow-down in unilateral climate changepolicies reduces competitivenessimpacts

· UK shale gas becomes available andprovides a degree of feedstocksecurity

· Bi-lateral trade agreements includingTransatlantic Trade and InvestmentPartnership (TTIP)

· Continued product innovations

· International agreement on climate changecreates level playing field

· UK shale gas becomes available and providesfeedstock security

· EU shale gas developed helping energy pricecompetitiveness

· World Trade Organisation agreement· High levels of product innovation

Challenges · Increased protectionism and tariffsreduces demand for traded bulkchemicals and economic efficiency

· High energy/resource prices· Slow-down in innovation

· Cost of unilateral climate changepolicies constrains growth

· Availability of resources

Changes in customer needs,products

· Emphasis on price · Some demand for climate changesolutions and products with carbonfootprints

· Increased demand for climate change solutionsand products with reduced carbon footprints

Changes in value chain · Some onshoring of production to UK inresponse to protectionism

· Current levels of clustering andcollaboration

· Some onshoring and rebuilding ofsupply chains with growth sectors

· Current levels of clustering andcollaboration.

· Significant onshoring and rebuilding of supplychains

· Increased levels of clustering and collaborationand recycling

Process, productiontechnology

· Short payback measures implemented,plant lives extended where possible

· Short payback measuresimplemented, some plant replacement

· Some development of alternativefeedstocks – waste, biofuels, carboncapture and utilisation (CCU)

· Higher levels of investment· Good development of alternative feedstocks –

waste, biofuels, CCU· Growth in biotechnology, Process Intensification

and other innovative technologies.

Energy use / mix sector · Continued use of gas for heat· Limited decarbonisation of power

supply

· Mainly gas for heat, limited biomassand CCS

· Significant decarbonisation of powersupply

· Mainly gas for heat, more biomass and CCS· High decarbonisation of power supply

Table 10: Sector specific scenarios



12. Options

Options Processing

The options register was developed jointly by the technical and social and business research teams. Thiswas achieved by obtaining the list of potential options from interviews, literature and the informationgathering workshop. The technical team drafted the first list of options. However, each option had strengths,weaknesses, enablers, and barriers which needed to be taken into account to develop and refine the optionsregister to feed into the model.

A comprehensive list of enablers and barriers identified from the literature review was refined andtriangulated with the information gathering workshop, survey and interviews. To find the most relevantenablers and barriers for incorporating into the options register and pathways, enablers and barriers thatwere not supported by the information gathering workshop and interviews were removed from the list.

The impact of social and business research was captured in the options register, under the individualtechnologies (where possible) and in the subsequent pathways selected.

We have used the decision tree below to determine whether the social and business findings should impactupon the options and pathways. The pathways represent a selection of options, and this determines whenand to what extent the options become active.

Figure 2: Social and business pathways impact tree

13. Pathway and Action Plan Workshop

The second workshop focused on reviewing the draft decarbonisation and energy efficiency pathways andidentifying potential actions for delivering them. This included presenting and discussing draft pathways ingroups and then asking the question, ‘Taking into account the identified barriers and enablers, what nextsteps would assist in delivering the pathways?’

The outputs of the second workshop were used to validate the pathways and to inform the conclusions of theroadmap, which include example next steps and actions.

1. High impact (i.e. scalable enough in UK tomake a difference for decarbonisation)?

2. Technologically possible?

3. Strong possibility that the business or socialbarrier is surmountable?

YES

Keep as optionto feed into pathways

NO

Option considered forremoval and discussed bysector team and experts



14. Next Steps

The output of the pathway development and social and business research included identification of barriersto and enablers for implementation of the pathways; and decarbonisation and energy efficiency in thechemicals sector more generally.

To draw conclusions, the analysis of barriers and enablers was taken further by describing a list of possiblenext steps to be implemented by a combination of industry, government and other organisations. Theseactions could take the form of strategic conclusions which are high-level and/or longer term, or more specific,discrete activities which could lead to tangible benefits.

The development of conclusions and next steps has considered the following:

· Actions from other chemicals decarbonisation projects.· Necessary changes in future markets, product features, business environment to enable the different

pathways.· The outputs of workshops held as part of this project covering decarbonisation pathways and next

steps.· Actions that help maximise the success of a pathway under a range of scenarios.· Options within the pathways that are necessary for success, e.g. if a particular technology option is

necessary for the success of a number of pathways, or an option has a very high decarbonisationpotential, actions to implement this option are included.

· Policy and regulations that could contribute to the removal of barriers and/or enhancement ofenablers.

The possible next steps can be divided into three main groups: strategy, opportunity and analysis, and toolsand resources.


APPENDIX B – FULL SOCIAL AND BUSINESS FINDINGS


Appendix B – Full Social and Business Findings Page 29 of 73

APPENDIX B FULL SOCIAL AND BUSINESS FINDINGS

1. SWOT Outcomes

The figure below highlights the key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in relation to industry investment into decarbonisation.

STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES OPPORTUNITIES THREATS

Strong product innovation andR&D

Internal competition for resources Cooperative research andinnovation Regulatory uncertainty

Recognised globally for itsexpertise R&D and in terms ofhigh-value specialty products

There is a significant costdisadvantage to other regions

Advanced research and productdevelopment

Rising cost base of materials andfuel

Strong investment to date intoenergy reduction/efficiency

Fragmented supply chainSupporting other sectors to growand reduce greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions

Aging infrastructure and asset base

The sector contributes to a widerange of products across theeconomy

High energy consumption needsTaking advantage of cost-effectiveabatement projects andtechnologies

Lower investment rates in the UKdue to less attractive returnscompared to other locations

Existing infrastructure is well-functioning and continuouslyintegrated and optimized

Table 11: SWOT analysis for chemicals sector



A SWOT analysis is a different lens to examine the enablers and barriers and reinforce conclusions andlinkages between evidence sources. It identifies how internal strengths mitigate external threats and can beused to create new opportunities, and how new opportunities can help overcome weaknesses. By clusteringthe various possibilities, we identified key stories from the SWOT analysis which enabled us to describe thebusiness and market story in which companies operate. In order to understand the inter-linkages betweenthe SWOT analysis for the sector and the key enablers and barriers we identified from the literature review,interviews, and workshop, we analysed the root causes of the enablers and barriers and linked it back to themarket environment and internal decision making. The top SWOT outcomes were identified from theliterature review, reinforced in the interviews and voted on by workshop participants as the most important.

Other social and business research methods used include system analysis, root cause analysis, causalmapping, Porter’s Five Forces analysis, and storytelling. System analysis can be used to help decisionmakers identify a better course of actions and make better decisions. It is a process of studying a procedureor business in order to identify goals and purposes, and to create systems and procedures that will achievethose goals most efficiently. It uses an experimental approach to understand the behaviour of an economy,market or other complex phenomenon. Root cause analysis is a method of problem solving that tries toidentify the root causes of a problem. A root cause is a cause that - once removed from the problem -prevents the final undesirable event from recurring. Causal mapping is a visual representation, showingcausalities or influences as links between different nodes. These maps can be used to aid strategic planningand thinking. Porter’s Five Forces is a framework to analyse the level of competition within an industry andbusiness strategy development. Storytelling is a technique that uses a clear and compelling narrative toconvey a message or provide context to a conversation with the aim to engage the interviewee andencourage openness.

2. Assessing Enablers and Barriers

The first stage in our analysis was to assess the strength of the evidence for the identification of the enablersand barriers. This was based on the source and strength of evidence and whether the findings werevalidated via more than one information source. If the strength of the evidence was deemed high or mediumhigh, then for the social and business research the enabler and/or barrier was included and information wasused to support the answer to the principal question ‘What are the main business enablers and barriers todecarbonisation?’. If the strength of the evidence was deemed high or medium high for the technical options,the uncertainties in the modelling were reduced. The evidence was given a relevance classification of: “high”,“medium high”, “medium low” or “low”. The classifications are defined in Table 12 below.

It should be noted that the nature of the interview and workshop discussion process means that theserepresent the opinions and perceptions of the interviewees and workshop participants which could notalways be backed up with evidence from other information sources.

The evidence was analysed and interpreted using a variety of evidence analytical techniques such as SWOTanalysis, system analysis and root cause analysis/causal mapping where possible.

Classification DefinitionHigh High relevance for the UK chemicals sector

Good financial-economic decarbonisation dataRecent information (after 2000)Provides a good example/story of decarbonisationValidated across all evidence gathering methods

Medium high Relevance for the UK chemicals sector



Table 12: Evidence classification definition

The following tables provide a summary of raw data collected relating to barriers and enablers.

Financial-economic data not always complete or clear-cut and only genericdecarbonisation dataProvides a good example/story of decarbonisationValidated by more than one evidence gathering method

Medium low Information that is or too general or too specificRelevant grey literatureOld information but still relevantIf only mentioned via one information gathering method

Low Background informationNo or low applicability for the UK chemicals sectorGrey literature of limited valueOld informationLack of relevance and/or only mentioned once



3. Detailed analysis of enablers and barriers

Enablers

# Category Enablers Literature review Interviews Survey(distribution ofresponses - % andnumber)

Workshop Analysis andInterpretation

1 Financial Financialincentives toadopt energyanddecarbonisationtechnologies

2 Sources:The Chemistry GrowthStrategy Group identifiedthe need to “incentivise andincrease update of existingenergy efficiencymeasures…” and to “ensurethe right framework andincentives for the adoptionof energy efficient and low-carbon technologies toreduce emissions”.

McKinsey and Companyidentified the need to “allowmarkets to incentivise fastaction by rewarding earlymovers that proactivelyreduce their CO2efootprint”.

Interviewee:One interviewindicated that what isneeded is “moreincentives and lesspunishment” whendiscussing the updateand adoption of moreefficient technologies.

0.0% (0) – negativeimpact5.9% (1) – no impact5.9% (1) - no-to-lowimpact23.5% (4) – low-to-medium impact17.6% (3) – medium-to-high impact47.1% (8) – very highimpact0.0% (0)I don’t know

(4) Very High Impact:Workshop participantsidentified this as a keyenabler to helpcompanies developtheir business case andachieve internal hurdlerates.

Workshop participantshighlighted the need forincentives as a keyenabler for the adoption ofmore efficient technology.This links to the enabler ofrecognising the keytechnologies andsupporting these (see #16below).Both interviewees andworkshop participantshighlighted the need forincentive schemes to belong-term commitments, asu-turns in policy (aroundincentive schemes) can bedamaging, particularlywhen the business casefor investment is marginaland is highly dependentupon factors such(fluctuating) energy prices.

2 Technology A sectorframework forinvestment ininnovation / R&D

2 Sources:The Chemistry GrowthStrategy Group identifiedthe need to “stimulate R&Dprogrammes and facilitatenew technologies prior tocommercialisation to focus

Interviewee:“We need to decidewhat the overall valueposition of the UK isgoing to be…if weunderstand how theparts of the industry

0.0% (0) – negativeimpact11.8% (2) ) – noimpact29.4% (5) -- no-to-lowimpact23.5% (4) – low-to-

(3) Medium-HighImpact:Workshop participantsindicated that there isvalue in a sectorframework and to focusinnovation in where the

A common theme for R&Dfrom across the literature,interviews and workshop,is that it needs to haveclear direction. The UKmust decide where it is tofocus and how it can use





on whole life cycle”.

The European ChemistryIndustry Council found that“R&D support for innovationshould facilitate newbreakthrough technologiesin pre-competitive phasesand should focus oninnovative solutions acrossthe borders of individualsectors”.

The European ChemicalIndustry Council state that“industry will need to movebeyond incremental energyefficiency towards moreradical step changes” andthat R&D is key to this.

can fit together, thencollaborations can bebased upon this” and“there is a need toconvince and bringappropriate partiestogether”.

medium impact29.4% (5) – medium-to-high impact0.0% (0)– very highimpact5.9% (1) - I don'tknow

value chain is notdelivering.

The need for a ‘safe’environment forinvestment wasidentified as a need –guided by a frameworkto provide direction toR&D efforts.

this to gain competitiveadvantage.The literature identifies theneed to take a life cycleperspective, and workshopparticipants indicated theneed to looks at the valuechain. Either way, it meanslooking beyond specificcompanies and sub-sectors, and developing aholistic framework to guideactivities.

3 Financial Financial supportfor projects/research

Not identified from literature– from interview.

Interviewee:“We do not have theresources to invest [intechnologyinnovations] and needsupport in this area.

0.0% (0) – negativeimpact17.6% (3) – no impact23.5% (4) – no-to-lowimpact35.3% (6) – low-to-medium impact23.5% (4) – medium-to-high impact0.0% (0) – very highimpact0.0% (0) - I don'tknow

(3) Medium-HighImpact:Workshop participantsfelt that the importanceof this enablerdepended upon theorganisation.Companies will prefer touse their own financefor smaller projects.

Incentives to lowerlending rates wereidentified as a means toenhance the enabler, in

The need for financialsupport will depend on theorganisation. The majorityof interview participantsreported that finance wasavailable internally.

Further work would berequired to understand theability of smallercompanies to financeimprovements and anychallenges that they face.





order to promote thebusiness case.

4 Market andEconomy

Level playingfield withcompetitorregions (e.g. EU,US, Middle East,Asia) in terms ofpolicy / energycosts

3 Sources:The Chemistry GrowthStrategy Group identifiedthe need to “…create aregulatory climate andculture that strengthensinternationalcompetitiveness anddelivers growth whileaddressing social andenvironmentalresponsibilities”.

The European ClimateFoundation identify that“well designed climatepolicies andcompetitiveness do nothave to be contradictory,but can be complementary”,and that smart strategiescan both reduce emissionsand stimulate Europe’sindustrial competitiveness.

The European ChemistryIndustry Council found that“industry wants a levelplaying field for the UK” asthere is currentlyuncertainty around futurecarbon and energy prices.

Interviewee:“Investment partlydepends on the priceof carbon, and alsoon the balance of costbetween regions” and“the conditions needsto be right [to invest inEurope], and thecurrent competitionissues need to beaddressed”.

Interviewee:“The carbon price isn'tas high as it shouldbe, but in the UKcarbon costs arehigher thanelsewhere. Threeyears ago the UKGovernmentintroduced a unilateraltax, and now afterthree years there hasbeen a policy shift”.

0.0% (0) – negativeimpact17.6% (3) – no impact5.9% (1) – no-to-lowimpact5.9% (1) – low-to-medium impact5.9% (1) – medium-to-high impact64.7% (11) – veryhigh impact0.0% (0)I don't know

(4) Very High Impact:Workshop participantsindicated that theattractiveness of the UKfor investment isessential to fund energyefficient / low carbon.This can be achievedby extending supportpackages for energyintensive industry andwork to drive down thecosts associated withlow carbon energy.

The need for a levelplaying field is seen to bea very important enableracross all informationsources.

It is a combination offactors that undermineglobal competitiveness, ofwhich energy and policycosts are seen to be keycontributors.

The competitiveness of theUK is directly related to itsattractiveness for inwardinvestment, and thereforethe ability to fundimprovement projects.





5 Technology Greaterinformation forthe sector on keytechnologies andinnovations

3 Sources:The European ChemicalIndustry Council found thatthere is a “lack of access totrusted and appropriateinformation” and that“Information is generic andnot tailored…potentialinvestors are not able toassess the benefits”.

Ricardo-AEA and ImperialCollege found thatefficiency not always part ofcore business, and that“…staff do not know theoptions / technologies”.

Sorrell et al found that the“absence of credibility andtrust in information onenergy efficiency will meanthat inefficient choices aremade”.

Not identified duringinterviews.

0.0% (0) – negativeimpact11.8% (2) – no impact29.4% (5) – no-to-lowimpact35.3% (6) – low-to-medium impact17.6% (3) – medium-to-high impact5.9% (1) – very highimpact0.0% (0) I don't know

(1) Low Impact:Workshop participantsdid not identify this tobe a significant enabler.Greater support forsmaller companies /SMEs was identified asa potential need.

Numerous literaturesources identified the lackof access to (credible)information as a barrier.

This was not identified asa barrier (or the oppositionas an enabler) during theinterviews and workshop.

This is not considered tobe a significant enabler forlarger companies, sincethese have dedicatedtechnical or researchdepartments.

6 People,ManagementandOrganisation

Long-term co-operation andaction by allstakeholders andacross the valuechain

1 Source:The European ChemistryIndustry Council found thatthe industry will need to“continue to seek enhancedcooperation with otherstakeholders along theirvalue chain to fosterdevelopment and greateruptake [of solutions]”.

Interviewee:“We need to decidewhat the overall valueposition of the UK isgoing to be…if weunderstand how theparts of the industrycan fit together, thencollaborations can bebased upon this” and“there is a need to

0.0% (0) – negativeimpact23.5% (4) – no impact23.5% (4) – no-to-lowimpact23.5% (4) – low-to-high impact23.5% (4) – medium-to-high impact5.9% (1) – very highimpact

(3) Medium Impact:Workshop participantsindicated the need for acommon understandingand clear framework(between Government,the value chain andcustomers) would be abasis for longer termaction.

This was not identified asan enabler during theinterviews and there is noclear opinion from thesurvey results.

Workshop participantshighlighted the challengeof this enabler in terms ofthe difficultly to encouragecollaborate given





convince and bringappropriate partiestogether”.

0.0% (0) - I don’tknow

competition issues.

7 Legislationand Policy

A stable andpredictable policyframework

1 Source:The European ChemistryIndustry Council indicatesthat a “stable andpredictable policyframework” is required inorder to create “increasedcertainty for business”.

Note: this is related to the‘level playing field’ enablerabove and there is someoverlap.

Interviewee:“An enabler is morecertainty on whatfuture legislationlooks like. This is forinvestment decisions.So in terms of the EUETS, carbon pricesand so on”.

Interviewee:When discussing therenewable heatincentive for CHP,“The economics [ofprojects] can be finelybalanced, andchanges in policy canhave significantimpacts. Regulatorychanges can leaveyou high and dry”.

Interviewee:“Certainty around thefuture policylandscape is needed– in the past therehave been reversalsand changes indirection. We needstability”.

0.0% (0) – negativeimpact11.8% (2) – no impact5.9% (1) – no impact5.9% (1) – low-to-medium impact58.8% (10) –medium-to-highimpact17.6% (3) – very highimpact0.0% (0) - I don'tknow

Score not recorded. The need for stability andcertainty was identified bythe majority ofinterviewees andworkshop participants.

This was identified fromtwo perspectives – firstlythe need for policyreversals to be avoided,and secondly theuncertainty of future policyand the associated costs.

From the survey themajority of respondentsscored this enabler ashaving a medium-highimpact or high impact.






Willingness oftop managementto make climatechange a priority

1 Source:Sorrell et al identified that“energy management tendsto have low status and maybe viewed as peripheralissue by top management”,and so there is a need forcommitment from the top.


0.0% (0) – negativeimpact0.0% (0) – no impact17.6% (3) – no-to-lowimpact5.9% (1) – low-to-medium impact35.3% (6) – medium-to-high impact41.2% (7) – very highimpact0.0% (0) I don’t know

(1) Low Impact:Workshop participantsindicated that decisionsare customer andproduct led, and climatechange is not aprincipal priority.

This was not identified asan enabler during theinterviews, but allinterviewees highlightedthat energy is of vitalimportance to theirbusiness and is highprofile.

Workshop participants alsoindicated that decisionsare made based onproduction and not led byconcerns for climatechange.


EnvironmentalManagementSystem to driveperformanceimprovement

1 Source:The Centre for SustainableEnergy (CSE) and theEnvironmental ChangeInstitute, University ofOxford found that “theevidence suggests thatadoption of certificatedEnvironmentalManagement System canlead to modestimprovements in theenvironmental performanceof an organisation,especially whereimprovements result from


0.0% (0) – negativeimpact5.9% (1)- no impact35.3% (6) – no-to-lowimpact29.4% (5) – low-to-medium impact29.4% (5) – medium-to-high impact0.0% (0)- very highimpact0.0% (0) I don’t know

(3) Medium-HighImpact:Workshop participantsindicated that ISO50001 is a moreimportant enabler. Thisgives the frameworkand requirescommitment to maintaincertification.

The presence of an EMSwas not considered to be asignificant enabler.However, workshopparticipants indicated thatISO 50001 requirements tohave targets anddemonstrate improvementhelps to raise the profilewithin companies andpromotes marginalimprovement projects.





no or low cost measures”.


A strong,evidence-basedbusiness casefor energy anddecarbonisationmeasures thatcapture allbenefits and cost

1 Source:The Carbon Trust identifiesthat business cases forinvestments “will need to berobust. Savings must bedeliverable and all financialsavings and costscaptured”.

Interviewee:“Payback on projectsis the mainconsideration.Projects must meetthe relevant financialcriteria…”

Interviewee:“An installation needsto be able todemonstrateprofitability. Aprofitable industry willbe invested in”.

Interviewee:“An important enableris the de-risking ofprojects. Governmentcan provide long termcommitments forprojects from 5 to 20years. This will helpovercome marginal oruncertain investmentdecisions”.

0.0% (0) – negativeimpact5.9% (1) – no impact11.8% (2) – no-to-lowimpact35.3% (6) – low-to-medium impact35.3% (6) – medium-to-high impact11.8% (2) – very highimpact0.0% (0) - I don’tknow

(4) Very High Impact:Workshop participantsindicated that anevidence-basedbusiness case requiresdata, and good datahelps to identify quickwins.

The ability todemonstrate anattractive paybackperiod was identified asbeing the top enabler. Itwas noted that energyefficiency ‘wins’ overdecarbonisation.

It was mentioned thatGovernment needs torealise that legislation(and costs) impact onthe business case, andtherefore investmentdecisions.

Across all intervieweesand workshop participantsthis was identified as a topenabler. Without a strongbusiness case animprovement project willnot pass through decision-making hierarchies.The need for certainty washighlighted as an issue,particularly for largerinvestments with paybackover 5 years. Theuncertainty over policy andenergy costs canundermine businesscases, particular when incompletion internally withother regions wherereturns are more certainand secure (e.g. Asia).


Proximity of theenergy managerto the CEO

1 Source:The Centre for SustainableEnergy (CSE) and theEnvironmental ChangeInstitute, University ofOxford found that “the


0.0% (0) – negativeimpact23.5% (4) – no impact23.5% (4) – no-to-lowimpact23.5% (4) – low-to-

(2) Medium Impact:Workshop participantsindicated that the link isan important one, but itdepends on thecompetence of the

See #9 above.





closer in the hierarchy theindividual with energymanagementresponsibilities is to theCEO, the more likely theorganisation is to haveenergy managementactivity.

medium impact17.6% (3)- medium-to-high impact5.9% (1) – very highimpact5.9% (1) - I don'tknow

energy manager. It wassuggested that a“certified energymanager” title wouldimprove credibility.

12 Financial Increasingenergy pricesincentivises theneed to reduceenergyconsumption

1 Source:The Centre for SustainableEnergy (CSE) and theEnvironmental ChangeInstitute, University ofOxford found that


17.6% (3) – negativeimpact0.0% (0) – no impact17.6% (3) – no-to-lowimpact11.8% (2) – low-to-medium impact17.6% (3) – medium-to-high impact35.3% (6) – very highimpact0.0% (0) - I don’tknow

Workshop participantsdid not see this as anenabler.

From the evidence this isnot recognised to be anenabler, with the exceptionof the survey results.

A number of intervieweeshighlighted that energy iscore business, and thatthere is always anincentive to manage it. Butthe predominant scenariois one of uncertainty, andthe management of thisuncertainty.


Externalpressures (fromNGOs, media,local communitybut NOTcustomers - seebelow

Identified from interviewsand not literature.

Interviewee:“Are operations arescrutinised by a rangeof external parties,who question ourperformance…”

0.0% (0) – negativeimpact35.3% (6) – no impact41.2% (7) – no-to-lowimpact17.6% (3) – low-to-medium impact5.9% (1) – medium-to-high impact0.0% (0) – very highimpact0.0% (0) -I don’t know

(1) Low Impact:Workshop participantsdid not consider this tobe an importantenabler. A pull from endusers was identified tobe more significant.

This was identified asbeing of lower importanceas an enabler.





14 Market andeconomy

Customerdemands forlow(er) carbonproducts

Identified from interviewsand not from literature

Interviewee:“Customer demandsfor low carbonproducts will have aninfluence over thelonger term”.

Interviewee:“If our customers areinvesting andexpanding then thisenables us to do thesame”.

0.0% (0) – negativeimpact11.8% (2) – no impact11.8% (2) – no-to-lowimpact29.4% (5) – low-to-medium impact17.6% (3) – medium-to-high impact29.4% (5) – very highimpact0.0% (0) -I don’t know

(2) Medium Impact:Workshop participantsidentify that this is astrong enabler forlowering the carbonfootprint of end users(e.g. energy efficiencyproducts) but of limitedeffect on lowering thecarbon footprint ofproduction.

This enabler was identifiedby two interviewees andworkshop participantsrated it as a mediumimpact enabler, but thistended to be relevant inthe medium-long term.


Recognisingwhat keytechnologies areand developingstrategy aroundthese

Note: identified frominterviews and not fromliterature.

The Chemistry GrowthStrategy Group identifiedthe need to “identify whichtechnologies andinnovations are likely tohelp reduce emissions andoptimise heat acrosssector”.

Interviewee:“We need to decidewhat the overall valueposition of the UK isgoing to be…if weunderstand how theparts of the industrycan fit together, thencollaborations can bebased upon this” and“there is a need toconvince and bringappropriate partiestogether”.

Interviewee:“We need torecognise whichtechnologies shouldbe implemented.Policy statements thatgive direction on this

Not included in surveyas identified duringinterviews conductedafter survey issue.

(4) Very High Impact:This was recognised asa very importantenabler – requiring apartnership ofGovernment,academics andindustry. This will helpto ensure an earlyuptake of newprocesses / products ifthere is adequate focuson development andcommercialisation.

This enabler was identifiedby a number ofinterviewees, who felt thatthere is a need for greaterfocus and direction in termof the key technologies fordecarbonisation.

The risk of not defining thekey technologies is wastedresource in thedevelopment of aspectsthat will not have therequired level of impact(i.e. disruptive impact).





are really importantwhen going to theBoard.

Interviewee:When discussinglimitations to evolvecurrent processes,“there is a need tolook realistically towards 2050. Anymoves from currentprocess will requiremassive investment”.

16 Market andEconomy

Cheaper gas(e.g. throughinvestment inshale gas)

Identified from interviewsand not from literature.

Interviewee:“Cheaper gas throughshale gas would be ahuge enabler” as thelower cost allowsinvestmentelsewhere.


(3) Medium-HighImpact:Workshop participantsidentified thatdecreased volatility ofgas prices and theincrease security ofsupply would result inthe UK being moreattractive forinvestment. Thisinvestment enablesinvestment in energysaving and low carbontechnology.

This enabler relates to theability to invest inimprovements if morecapital is available due tolower energy costs. Butthis is not considered toapply to those companieswith access to internalfinance for improvementprojects. The link betweenexpenditure on energy andbudgets for investmentprojects is not so clear inthese cases.

17 Operational Infrastructure willneed replacing atsome point

Identified from interviewsand not from literature.

Interviewee:“Over timeinfrastructure willneed replacing, andso some marginalgains will occur. Thebusiness case will be


(4) Very High Impact:Workshop participantsindicated that this is avery important impact,but investment is basedon a number ofvariables. Short-term

This enabler was identifiedby one interviewees, whohighlighted the need toperiodically replace andimprove assets providedopportunities for marginalgains.





there we will look toalways installsomething ‘better’than before in termsof emissions”.

benefits and improvedperformance areattractive benefits thatsupport the businesscase.

Workshop participantsrated this as having a veryhigh impact, given that thebusiness case isstrengthened by anoperational need forupgrades.



Barriers

Number Category Barriers Literature review Interviews Survey(distribution ofresponses - %and number)

Workshops Analysis

1 Financial Energy subsidesdeter investment inefficienttechnologies

The InternationalEnergy Agencyfound that “energysubsidies that actas barriers todeploying moreenergy-efficienttechnologies”.

Not identified ininterviews

5.9% (1)- negativeimpact23.5% (4) – noimpact23.5% (4) – no-to-low impact5.9% (1) – low-to-medium impact17.6% (3) –medium-to-highimpact11.8% (2) – veryhigh impact11.8% (2) - I don’tknow

(2) Low Impact:Workshopparticipants didnot see this is anissue in the UK.They identifiedthat bettersubsidieselsewhere mayincentivise updatein other countries /regions.

From the evidence, this does notappear to be perceived as a significantbarrier.

2 Financial Access to capital /funding

The Centre for LowCarbon Futuresfound that “manycompanies aresubsidiaries ofglobal organisationsand competeinternally forinvestment. Highercosts can make itdifficult to justifyinvestment in UK”.

The ChemistryGrowth StrategyGroup identifiedthat there is“inadequatesignposting to

Interviewee:“It can be difficult toget seniormanagement tounderstand [thepolicy setting in theUK]…it is difficult forthem to assess riskand the UK appearsa lot more complex toother regions we arecompeting with forcapex”.

Interviewee:“Investmentdecisions are goingagainst the UK, asour business will

0.0% (0) –negative impact17.6% (3) – noimpact11.8% (2) – no-to-low impact17.6% (3) – low-to-medium impact35.3% (6) –medium-to-highimpact17.6% (3) – veryhigh impact0.0% (0) - I don’tknow)

(3) Medium-HighImpact:Workshopparticipantsindicated that theimportance of thisbarrier dependedon profitability.Minor projectswith returns withintwo years wouldmore likely receivefunding due tocertainty of returnsand lower risk.

Participants alsoindicated thisaccess depends

The barrier of access to capital canexist in two forms – firstly, directly interms of a lack of funding. This wasidentified as being more of an issue forsmaller companies. Most intervieweesdid not identify capital as an issue.

The barrier also persists indirectly,when finance is available but it is notpossible to demonstrate a strongenough business case in order toobtain funding or where the where thelevel of risk is considered too high towarrant investment.




Workshops Analysis

Government andprivate sectorfunding initiatives”.

choose to invest inother counties withmore certainty andfinancial returns”.

on the level ofinternalcompetition forfinancing, andcompany specificreturn oninvestmenttargets.

3 Market andEconomy

Energy prices andpolicy costs

The Centre for LowCarbon Futuresfound that the priceof energy is “abarrier toinvestment. Parentcompanies see apoor return oninvestment in theUK compared toelsewhere”.

The InternationalEnergy Agencyfound that a keybarrier toinvestment is the“uncertainty offuture energycosts”.

Interviewee:“There is a barrierrelated toGovernment andchanging legislativepositions, creatinguncertainty…”.

Interviewee:“The cost ofmanufacturing is highand energy costs area real worry. It isdifficult to justifyspending moreelsewhere”.

11.8% (2) –negative impact5.9% (1) – noimpact5.9% (1) – no-to-low impact35.3% (6) –low-to-medium impact17.6% (3) –medium-to-highimpact23.5% (4) – veryhigh impact0.0% (0) - I don'tknow

(4) Very HighImpact:Workshopparticipantsidentified energyprices as themajor cost to theirbusiness anddirectly impactsthe bottom line.Issues wereidentified in termsof inconsistencywithin policy andpolicy costs.

High energy prices and policy costswere identified as one of the topbarriers. Workshop participants did notconsider the high energy costs were anenabler and stimulate investment inenergy reduction / efficiency. Rather itis seen as a cost of business thatimpacts upon: the ability to competeglobally; and the attractiveness ofinvestment in the UK.

4 Technology High cost ofresearch,demonstration fornew technologies

Ricardo-AEA andImperial Collegeidentified the “highcost of research,development anddemonstration ofnew technologies”.

Interviewee:“We do not have theresources to invest[in technologyinnovations] andneed support in thisarea.

0.0% (0) –negative impact0.0% (0) – noimpact23.5% (4) – no-to-low impact23.5% (4) – low-

(3) Medium-HighImpact:Workshopparticipantsindicated that thebarrier is notnecessarily the

The survey results indicated this to bea significant barrier.

Workshop participants considered thatthe issue was not cost, but that thefocus for R&D is upon aspects otherthan decarbonisation (e.g. product




Workshops Analysis

to-medium impact35.3% (6) –medium-to-highimpact17.6% (3) – veryhigh impact0.0% (0) -I don’tknow

cost, but that R&Defforts are notfocused ondecarbonisationbut on productdevelopment,reliability etc.There is a need totakedecarbonisationinto account whendoing R&D.

Participants alsoreported that it isdifficult to movefrom R&D intocommercialisation.

development).

5 Technology Commercialisationof new andunproventechnologies

The InternationalEnergy Agencyfound that the“commercial scaleup of new andunproventechnologies” is anissue for futuredeployment.

The ChemistryGrowth StrategyGrowth found that“much greaterresearch is urgentlyrequired on thepotential for

Not identified ininterviews.

0.0% (0) –negative impact0.0% (0) – noimpact11.8% (2) – no-to-low impact35.3% (6) – low-to-medium impact35.3% (6) –medium-to-highimpact17.6% (3) – veryhigh impact0.0% (0) - I don'tknow

(4) Very HighImpact:Workshopparticipantsreported that thisis a verysignificant barrierfor smalltechnologydevelopers (due toaccess to skillsand finance etc.),but less so forlarge commodityproducers. It wasreported thatcommodity

This issue was not raised by workshopparticipants, but potentially because anumber of companies have adedicated research function who wouldbe more aware of the issues andchallenges.

Workshop participants did not considerthis to be an issue for largercompanies, but more for smallertechnology developers.




Workshops Analysis

commercialisationof CCS”.

producers willtend to makemore incrementalchanges toestablished plants,rather thanintroduce newtechnologies.


Lack of knowledgeof technologies /options

The EuropeanChemical IndustryCouncil found thatthere is a “lack ofaccess to trustedand appropriateinformation” andthat “Information isgeneric and nottailored…potentialinvestors are notable to assess thebenefits”.

Ricardo-AEA andImperial Collegefound that efficiencynot always part ofcore business, andthat “…staff do notknow the options /technologies”.

Sorrell et al foundthat the “absence ofcredibility and trustin information on

Interviewee:“We have access tothe technology, weknow what they are,but they only offermarginal gains or nogains at all…”


(4) Very HighImpact:Workshopparticipantsindicated thatR&D is productionled, and there is aneed to takedecarbonisationinto account inR&D efforts.Others felt thatthere is goodaccess toinformation,through thegroups of the CIAfor example.

It is not clear whether this presents abarrier. It was not identified assignificant by interviewees or from theworkshop.

It is considered likely that the mainissue is the lack of availability ofresource to work on decarbonisationprojects (see #14 below).




Workshops Analysis

energy efficiencywill mean thatinefficient choicesare made”.

7 Technology Limitations ofexistingtechnologies

The Centre for LowCarbon Futuresfound that “…muchhas already beendone to improveprocess efficiency”and that there arelimitations to furtherimprovement.

The EuropeanChemistry IndustryCouncil found that“many companieshave good energymanagementsystems in placeand already keepgood track of theonsite energygeneration anddistributionsystems, limitingthe potential tofurther improve”.

Interviewee:“We have access tothe technology, weknow what they are,but they only offermarginal gains or nogains at all…”


(1) Low Impact:Workshopparticipants feltthat currentpractice is quitefar from the limitsof existingtechnologies (interms of potentialimprovements),and there is stilllots of low hangingfruit available.

There were contrasting views on thisbarrier – for example one intervieweeindicating that technologies only offersmarginal or no gains, whilst others feelthat there are still considerableimprovements to be made.

The evidence gathering indicates thatthis barrier is likely to be a company-specific issue and related to the level ofinvestment made to date. There maystill exist significant potential tooptimise existing technology.


Uncertainty overregulation of newtechnologies

The EuropeanChemistry IndustryCouncil identifiedthat “regulatoryuncertainty around

Interviewee:“CCS is an area thatcould be a strategicopportunity, butpolicy cost and

0.0% (0) –negative impact5.9% (1) – noimpact11.8% (2) – no-to-

(3) Medium-HighImpact:Workshopparticipantsindicated that

This issue was raised largely in term ofCCS where the regulatoryrequirements will be stringent, and atpresent are not sufficiently developedto allow companies to understand the




Workshops Analysis

new innovativetechnologies”represent a barrierto investment.

regulatory uncertaintyare all barriers toinvestment”.

low impact35.3% (6) – low-to-medium impact23.5% (4) –medium-to-highimpact23.5% (4) – veryhigh impact0.0% (0) - I don'tknow

there areperceived risksfrom regulationbut also in termsof uncertainty inoutcomes. It wasreported that therewould be limitedinvestment withregulatoryuncertainty,particular in termsof newtechnologies.

potential costs and risks.

9 Operational Inefficiency andloss of revenue forshutting downplants for upgrades

Ricardo-AEA andImperial Collegeidentified one of themost importantbarriers (for allsectors) to be the“high value placedon operationalcontinuity”.

Interviewee:“There is a need tomaximise productionand keep the plantrunning. You do notwant to take if offlinefor upgrades as thisaffected profitability.”

Interviewee:“Taking plant offlinefor upgrades iscomplex and costly.”


(1) Low Impact:Workshopparticipantsindicated that thisis not a barrier,due to periodicshut downperiods. It wasconsidered to be‘unusual’ if thispresented abarrier.

The need to shut down plant forupgrade is a barrier for somecompanies. This is dependent on theability to bypass equipment andmaintain some level of production.

The workshop group did not feel thatthis was a barrier, as shut downs arecommon practice and provide periodicaccess for improvement works.

10 Market andEconomy

Low and unstablecarbon price

The InternationalEnergy Agencyfound that “highinvestment costsare not costeffective withouthigher carbon

5.9% (1) –negative impact11.8% (2) – noimpact23.5% (4) – no-to-low impact29.4% (5) – low-

(3) Medium-HighImpact:Workshopparticipantsreported that it isdifficult to invest inprojects due to

This barrier is identified as beingsimilar to other barriers that result inuncertainty. Uncertainty in carbon pricewas identified by workshop participantsas resulting in problems to prepare arobust business case – since futurecosts are uncertain.




Workshops Analysis

price”.

Ricardo-AEA andImperial Collegefound that the “lackof a stable policyregime” was abarrier toinvestment,alongside a lowcarbon price.

to-medium impact17.6% (3) –medium-to-highimpact11.8% (2) – veryhigh impact0.0% (0 - I don’tknow

[potential]changes in carbonprice [which willundermine thebusiness case].

11 Financial Unattractivepayback periodsand stringent ROI

Sorrell et al foundthat the “…use ofvery stringentpayback periods” ofless than two yearswere an example ofan “organisationalfailure” for energyefficiency.

Interviewee:“Payback on projects isthe main consideration.Projects must meet therelevant financialcriteria…”

Interviewee:“Achieving a goodpayback period iskey…”Interviewee:“Payback terms aretypically two to threeyearsInterviewee discussinga project that was nottaken forward:“ We did quite a lot ofwork on it, but it didn’tmake it as the paybackwas slower [than otherprojects].

5.9% (1) –negative impact11.8% (2) – noimpact23.5% (4) no-to-low impact29.4% (5) – low-to-medium impact17.6% (3) –medium-to-highimpact11.8% (2) – veryhigh impact0.0% (0) - I don’tknow

(3) Medium-HighImpact: Workshopparticipantsindicated that theimportance of thisbarrier depended onprofitability. Minorprojects with returnswithin two yearswould more likelyreceive funding dueto certainty ofreturns and lowerrisk.

Participants alsoindicated this accessdepends on the levelof internalcompetition forfinancing, andcompany specificreturn on investmenttargets.

Payback periods and ROI wereidentified as key barriers from theinterviews, survey and workshop. Itwas not identified widely within theliterature.

This barrier is closely related to thelevel of internal competition of funding,particularly within global companieswith operations worldwide. Thesecompanies have a range of investmentopportunities, and business case andpayback periods are critical to securinginvestment. Interviewees andworkshop participants highlighted therelative unattractiveness of investing inthe UK versus locations in Asia forexample – where the business caseand returns are stronger and morepredictable.


APPENDIX C – FULL TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS REGISTER


Appendix C – Full Technology Options Register Page 51 of 73

APPENDIX C FULL TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS REGISTER

Optionname

Sub-sector/product Description

Tech

nolo

gyR

eadi

ness

Leve

ls6

Ado

ptio

n(%

)

App

licab

ility

(%)

CO

2sa

ving

s(%

)

Foss

ilfu

elsa

ving

s(%

)

Bio

mas

sfu

elsa

ving

s(%

)

Foss

ilfe

edst

ock

savi

ngs

(%)

Bio

mas

sfe

edst

ock

savi

ngs

(%)

Elec

tric

itysa

ving

s(%

)

CO2 / energy datasource

sect

orca

pex

(£m

illio

n)7

Capex datasource

01Biomassas fuel

All Biomass fuels areused in place of fossilfuels, e.g. directlycombusted in boilersto raise steam,converted into syngasvia gasification, orconverted intomethane viaanaerobic digestion.

9 for directcombustion,

5-7 forgasification8

0% 50% 85% 100% -100% 0% 0% 0%

CO2 savings reflectbiomass emission

factor of 20g/kWh asagreed with DECC

1000 Derived fromAEA 2011,DECC 2013

02 Wasteas fuel

All Replace fossil fuelswith waste-derivedfuels, e.g. municipalwaste. 6-9 0% 25% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Based on assumptionthat waste counts as

zero carbon

500 Professionaljudgment basedon similarities to

biomass fuelsystems

6 Please note that for cases where no source is provided, expert opinion has been used to evaluate the TRL.7 Capital costs for chemicals are expressed as a total cost for the sector. While cost data on some options was available on per site basis, data for others was expressed differently e.g. cost/tonne ofproduction capacity, cost/tonne of emissions. These could more readily be converted into a sector cost than a per site cost. In addition, the sector is diverse with a very wide range of site sizes, processtypes, plant age and condition, investment requirements etc. (particularly in the case of the energy efficiency options) could potentially make a per site value misleading for some options. The total sectorcost has been therefore been considered the clearest way to express the investment cost for the different options.8 http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy11osti/50441.pdf



Optionname


Tech

nolo

gyR

eadi

ness

Leve

ls6

Ado

ptio

n(%

)

App

licab

ility

(%)

CO

2sa

ving

s(%

)

Foss

ilfu

elsa

ving

s(%

)

Bio

mas

sfu

elsa

ving

s(%

)

Foss

ilfe

edst

ock

savi

ngs

(%)

Bio

mas

sfe

edst

ock

savi

ngs

(%)

Elec

tric

itysa

ving

s(%

)


sect

orca

pex

(£m

illio

n)7

Capex datasource

04Decarbo-nisedmethaneas fuel

All Replace natural gaswith methane derivedfrom low carbonsource e.g. anaerobicdigestion or hydrogengenerated usingrenewable electricitycombined withcaptured CO2.

9 foranaerobic

digestion, 5-6 for

hydrogen

0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Professionaljudgment, assuming

all energy used isrenewable

4500 Derived fromArcadis

05Biomassasfeedstock

All Use feedstocksderived from biomass(e.g. syngas fromgasification, ethanolfrom fermentation) toreplace fossil fuelderived feedstockssuch as natural gasor naptha.

5-79 0% 100% 26% -250% 0% 100% -100% -250%

Derived from IEA-ICCA and BREW.CO2 savings alsoreflect biomass

emission factor of30g/kWh as agreed

with DECC

10000 Derived fromHannula, 2013,IEA 2008 and

Fan, 2013

07Hydrogenbyelectrolysis– ammoniaproduction

All Make ammonia usinghydrogen from waterelectrolysis withrenewable electricityinstead of hydrogenfrom fossil syngas

610 0% 100% 100% 100% 0% 100% 0% -2000%

Energy use derived fromCEFIC/Ecofys and IEA-

ICCA. Emissionsreduction from

professional judgmentthat all energy used will

be renewable

9 SPIRE, https://ec.europa.eu/growth/tools-databases/regional-innovation-monitor/sites/default/files/report/SPIRE%20PPP%20-%20Sustainable%20Process%20Industries%20through%20Resource%20and%20Energy%20Efficiency,%20A.SPIRE_.pdf10 Derived from IEA/ICCA/DECHEMA



Optionname


Tech

nolo

gyR

eadi

ness

Leve

ls6

Ado

ptio

n(%

)

App

licab

ility

(%)

CO

2sa

ving

s(%

)

Foss

ilfu

elsa

ving

s(%

)

Bio

mas

sfu

elsa

ving

s(%

)

Foss

ilfe

edst

ock

savi

ngs

(%)

Bio

mas

sfe

edst

ock

savi

ngs

(%)

Elec

tric

itysa

ving

s(%

)


sect

orca

pex

(£m

illio

n)7

Capex datasource

08Hydrogenbyelectrolysis– hydrogenproduction

All Produce hydrogenfrom waterelectrolysis withrenewable electricityinstead of hydrogenfrom fossil syngas

611 0% 100% 100% 100% 0% 100% 0% -2000%

Energy use derivedfrom CEFIC/Ecofys

and IEA-ICCA.Emissions reduction

from professionaljudgment that all

energy used will berenewable

09Recycledplastics -syngas

All Recycle plastics tosyngas to providefeedstock forprocesses such asammonia (direct useof syngas) or olefins(via methanol)

4-6 0% 100% 10% -250% 0% 100% -100% -250%

Derived from IEA-ICCA and

professional judgmentbased on similarities

in processrequirements to

biomass feedstockprocesses

10CombinedHeat andPower(CHP)

All Further deployment ofCHP to replaceseparate heat andelectricity supply,noting that there isalready significantdeployment in thesector.

9 30% 50% 8% 8% 0% 0% 0% 8%

From ParsonsBrinckerhoffprofessionalexperience

11 Derived from IEA/ICCA/DECHEMA



Optionname


Tech

nolo

gyR

eadi

ness

Leve

ls6

Ado

ptio

n(%

)

App

licab

ility

(%)

CO

2sa

ving

s(%

)

Foss

ilfu

elsa

ving

s(%

)

Bio

mas

sfu

elsa

ving

s(%

)

Foss

ilfe

edst

ock

savi

ngs

(%)

Bio

mas

sfe

edst

ock

savi

ngs

(%)

Elec

tric

itysa

ving

s(%

)


sect

orca

pex

(£m

illio

n)7

Capex datasource

11Integrategasturbineswithcrackingfurnace

Olefins Integration of gasturbines with crackingheaters to generateadditional electricityor drive compressorsetc. (a form of CHP)

6-7 0% 100% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0% 10%

Derived from IEA2008 plus interview

12 CarbonCaptureandStorage(CCS) -combustion (incl.biomass

All Capture of CO2 fromcombustion gases,and subsequentgeological storage. 612 0% 60% 80% -10% 0% 0% 0% -10%

Derived from ParsonsB professionalexperience and

Parsons Brinckerhoff/GCCSI

2500 Derived fromElement Energy

2014 (2)

13 CCS -process –ammoniaproduction

Ammonia Deploy CCS onprocess emissionsfrom the steammethane reformingprocess currentlyused to makeammonia (i.e. on highpurity CO2 stream)

6-7 0% 100% 90% -10% 0% 0% 0% -10%

Derived from Ricardo-AEA, UKCCS,

Parsons Brinckerhoffprofessionalexperience


2014

12 Element Energy, https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/311482/Element_Energy_DECC_BIS_Industrial_CCS_and_CCU_final_report_14052014.pdf



Optionname


Tech

nolo

gyR

eadi

ness

Leve

ls6

Ado

ptio

n(%

)

App

licab

ility

(%)

CO

2sa

ving

s(%

)

Foss

ilfu

elsa

ving

s(%

)

Bio

mas

sfu

elsa

ving

s(%

)

Foss

ilfe

edst

ock

savi

ngs

(%)

Bio

mas

sfe

edst

ock

savi

ngs

(%)

Elec

tric

itysa

ving

s(%

)


sect

orca

pex

(£m

illio

n)7

Capex datasource

14 CCS -process –hydrogenproduction

Hydrogen Deploy CCS onprocess emissionsfrom steam methanereforming process(i.e. on high purityCO2 stream) currentlyused to makehydrogen

6-7 0% 100% 90% -10% 0% 0% 0% -10%

Derived from Ricardo-AEA, UKCCS,

Parsons Brinckerhoffprofessionalexperience


2014

15 CCU All Use of capturedcarbon as afeedstock. Manyprocesses usecarbon-basedfeedstocks and theCO2 could, withsuitable furtherprocessing, be usedas a substitute.

3-513 0% 100% 77% -70% 0% 100% 0% -70%

Derived from IEA-ICCA and DUKES

data

16Improvedinsulation

All Further reduceenergy consumptionby improvinginsulation to reduceheat losses. 9 0% 100% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Derived from Ecofys2012 and workshop 1

feedback

84 Derived fromSPICE3, USDoE, industry

feedback

13 Element Energy, https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/311482/Element_Energy_DECC_BIS_Industrial_CCS_and_CCU_final_report_14052014.pdf



Optionname


Tech

nolo

gyR

eadi

ness

Leve

ls6

Ado

ptio

n(%

)

App

licab

ility

(%)

CO

2sa

ving

s(%

)

Foss

ilfu

elsa

ving

s(%

)

Bio

mas

sfu

elsa

ving

s(%

)

Foss

ilfe

edst

ock

savi

ngs

(%)

Bio

mas

sfe

edst

ock

savi

ngs

(%)

Elec

tric

itysa

ving

s(%

)


sect

orca

pex

(£m

illio

n)7

Capex datasource

17Improvedwaste heatrecovery

All Recover heatcurrently wasted e.g.through condensaterecovery, pre-heatinginput with low gradeheat from usedcooling streams etc.

8-9 0% 100% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Derived from Ricardo-AEA and workshop 1

feedback

140 Derived fromElement Energy2014, US DoE,

LCICG heatsummary,industryfeedback

18Improvedprocesscontrol

All Further improve thecontrol and operationof processes and unitoperations to reduceenergy consumptionper unit of productionoutput.

9 0% 100% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1%

Derived from IEA-ICCA, CEFIC/Ecofys

and workshop 1feedback

34 Derived fromSPICE3,industryfeedback

19 Moreefficientequipment

All Further deployment ofmore efficientequipment such asmotors, drives,compressors, chillersetc.

8-9 0% 100% 4% 4% 0% 0% 0% 4%

Derived fromCEFIC/Ecofys, CIA

feedback, workshop 1feedback

440 Derived fromSNIFFER,SPICE3,industryfeedback

20Improvedsteamsystemefficiency

All Improvements toboiler efficiency anddistribution systems

9 0% 100% 4% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Derived fromCEFIC/Ecofys and

workshop 1 feedback

44 Derived fromSPICE3,

SNIFFER,CLCF, Carbon

Trust



Optionname


Tech

nolo

gyR

eadi

ness

Leve

ls6

Ado

ptio

n(%

)

App

licab

ility

(%)

CO

2sa

ving

s(%

)

Foss

ilfu

elsa

ving

s(%

)

Bio

mas

sfu

elsa

ving

s(%

)

Foss

ilfe

edst

ock

savi

ngs

(%)

Bio

mas

sfe

edst

ock

savi

ngs

(%)

Elec

tric

itysa

ving

s(%

)


sect

orca

pex

(£m

illio

n)7

Capex datasource

21Membranetechnology

All Deploy membranetechnologies toreplace more energyintensive separationtechnologies such asdistillation

3-5 0% 10% 8% 8% 0% 0% 0% 8%

Derived from Ricardo-AEA, IEA 2008,

workshop 1 feedback

22 ProcessIntensification

All Deploy processintensificationtechniques(miniaturisation,synergies betweenprocess steps etc.) tooptimise energy use

3-5 0% 20% 8% 8% 0% 0% 0% 8%

Derived from Ricardo-AEA

23 Hightemperature cracking

Olefins Use highertemperature furnacesin cracking process

6-8 0% 100% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%Derived from IEA

2008

24Catalyticcracking

Olefins Deploy catalyticcracking to replacethe current steamcracking process

5-7 0% 100% 15% 15% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Derived fromCEFIC/Ecofys, IEA-

ICCA

25 RetrofitODC forchlorineproduction

ChlorineRetrofit OxygenDepolarised Cathode(ODC) to membranecells

714 0% 25% 23% 23% 0% 0% 0% 23%

Derived fromCEFIC/Ecofys and

interview

14 Derived from CEFIC/Ecofys



Optionname


Tech

nolo

gyR

eadi

ness

Leve

ls6

Ado

ptio

n(%

)

App

licab

ility

(%)

CO

2sa

ving

s(%

)

Foss

ilfu

elsa

ving

s(%

)

Bio

mas

sfu

elsa

ving

s(%

)

Foss

ilfe

edst

ock

savi

ngs

(%)

Bio

mas

sfe

edst

ock

savi

ngs

(%)

Elec

tric

itysa

ving

s(%

)


sect

orca

pex

(£m

illio

n)7

Capex datasource

26Bioprocessing

All Use of biologicalproduction pathways(e.g. fermentation,biocatalysts)

1-6 (widerange ofpossible

processes)

0% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Derived from Ricardo-AEA and professional

judgment

27Methanol-to-olefins

Olefins Make olefins fromnatural gas viamethanol, replacingthe current process ofsteam cracking ofnaptha or ethane

7-815 0% 100% 10% -300% 0% 0% 0% -300%

Derived fromCEFIC/Ecofys, IEA-

ICCA

28 Hightemperature steamelectrolysis

Ammonia Nuclear hightemperature steamelectrolysis (USDepartment of Energydevelopment project)

3-416 0% 100% 100% 100% 0% 100% 0% -1700%

From CEFIC/Ecofys

29 Solidstatesynthesis

Ammonia Solid state ammoniasynthesis usingelectricity 3-517 0% 100% 100% 100% 0% 100% 0% -1800%

From CEFIC/Ecofys

30Clustering

All Connect industrialsites close to eachother to allow efficientuse of energy andmaterials

9 25% 50% 25% 25% 0% 0% 0% 25%

Derived fromLOCIMAP and

professional judgment

15 Derived from IEA-ICC-DECHEMA16 Derived from CEFIC/Ecofys17 Derived from CEFIC/Ecofys



Other Notes:

· % savings are compared to current processes.· Negative savings means more energy or feedstock is required than with current processes· Rows 3 and 6 are not shown as these refer to options no longer included in the model, however the original numbering has been maintained for consistency.· All costs are for CO2 capture alone, including CO2 purification and compression. Costs associated with transport and storage/utilisation are excluded.

INDUSTRIAL DECARBONISATION AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY ROADMAP TO2050 – IRON AND STEEL

APPENDIX D – ADDITIONAL PATHWAYS ANALYSIS


Appendix D – Additional Pathways Analysis Page 61 of 73

APPENDIX D ADDITIONAL PATHWAYS ANALYSIS

1. Option deployment for pathways under different scenarios

Challenging World

Figure 3: BAU pathway, challenging world scenario



Figure 4: 40-60% pathway, challenging world scenario



Figure 5: Max Tech pathway, challenging world scenario



Figure 6: Max Tech (no biomass), challenging world scenario



Collaborative Growth

Figure 7: BAU pathway, collaborative growth scenario



Figure 8: 40-60% pathway, collaborative growth scenario



Figure 9: 60-80% pathway, collaborative growth scenario



Figure 10: Max Tech pathway, collaborative growth scenario



Figure 11: Max Tech pathway, collaborative growth scenario



Figure 12: Max Tech (no biomass) pathway, collaborative growth scenario

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