Children in Manchester

A profile of Manchester’s children from birth to 16 year olds

supplemented by young adults aged 17 to 19

Version 2018/v1.7a (external)

Elisa Bullen Public Intelligence, PRI Chief Executive’s Department

Date: March 2018

www.manchester.gov.uk

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 4 Figure 1: Change in the number of Manchester children, 2002-2016 ................................................. 4

Table 1: Change in the number of Manchester 0 to 4 year olds, 2002-2016 ...................................... 4

Overview of Manchester’s current child population ...................................................................................... 5 Figure 2: Number of children by age, 2016 ........................................................................................ 5

Figure 3: Preschool and school age cohorts ...................................................................................... 6

Children aged from birth to 16 at ward level ................................................................................................. 6 Table 2: Distribution of Manchester children by ward, 2017 ............................................................... 7

Table 3: Distribution of Manchester children by ward, change 2011-2017 ......................................... 8

Map 1: Estimated number of children by output area, 2016 ............................................................... 9

Ethnicity of children ............................................................................................................................. 10 Map 2: Number of dependent children (see Appendix for definition) – White ethnic group, 2011 ..... 10

Map 3: Number of dependent children– Asian/Asian British ethnic group, 2011 .............................. 11

Map 4: Number of dependent children– Black/Black British ethnic group, 2011 ............................... 12

Map 5: Number of dependent children – Mixed/multiple ethnic group, 2011 .................................... 13

Map 6: Number of dependent children– ‘Other’ ethnic group, 2011 ................................................. 14

Families with children .......................................................................................................................... 15 Table 4: Proportion of families containing dependent children per ward, 2011................................. 15

Table 5: Wards averaging more than two children per family, 2011 ................................................. 16

Map 7: Large household sizes, 2011 ............................................................................................... 17

Households with children .................................................................................................................... 18 Table 6: Households with dependent children and lone parent households by ward, 2011 .............. 18

Tenure of households ......................................................................................................................... 19 Figure 4: Tenure of households within wards, 2011 ......................................................................... 19

Figure 5: Relationship between social renting and households with children by ward, 2011 ............ 19

Low-income households with children ................................................................................................. 20 Table 7: Proportion of income-deprived children by ward, 2015 and 2017 ....................................... 21

Table 8: IDACI proportion of wards with LSOAs in the most deprived 10% of England, 2015 .......... 22

Children aged from birth to 4 years ............................................................................................................ 23 Map 8: Estimated number of children aged 0 to 4 by lower super output area, 2016 ....................... 23

Table 9: Estimated number of children aged 0 to 4 by ward, 2017 ................................................... 24

Table 10: Proportion of households with at least one child aged 0 to 4, 2011 .................................. 25

Table 11: Proportion of families with at least one child aged 0 to 4, 2011 ........................................ 25

Table 12: Wards with above average numbers of 0 to 4 year olds in households, 2011 .................. 26

Deprivation links with preschool children ............................................................................................. 26 Map 9: Number of children aged 0 to 4 at LSOA level, MYE 2016 ONS .......................................... 27

Map 10: 2015 Index of Multiple Deprivation at LSOA level, DCLG ................................................... 27

Children aged from 5 to 11 years ............................................................................................................... 28 Figure 6: Primary school age children by ward, 2011 and 2017 ....................................................... 28

Figure 7: Primary school age children projection and forecast, 2014-2027 ...................................... 28

Map 11: Estimated number of children aged 5 to 11 by output area, 2016 ...................................... 29

Table 13: Estimated number of children aged 5 to 11 by ward, 2017 ............................................... 30

Table 14: Proportion of households with youngest child aged 5 to 15, 2011 .................................... 31

Table 15: Proportion of families with youngest child aged 5 to 11, 2011 .......................................... 32

Children aged from 12 to 16 years ............................................................................................................. 32 Table 16: Estimated population aged 12 to 16 by ward, 2017 ......................................................... 33

Map 12: Estimated numbers of children aged 12 to 16 at Output Area level, MYE 2016 ONS ......... 34

Young adults aged from 17 to 19 at ward level ........................................................................................... 35 Table 17: Estimated population aged 17-19 at ward level, mid-2017 .............................................. 35

Map 13: Estimated number of young adults aged 17 to 19 at Output Area level, MYE 2016 ONS ... 36

The next 10 years ...................................................................................................................................... 37 Map 14: Forecast number of children aged 0 to 4 by ward, 2022..................................................... 38

Map 15: Forecast number of children aged 0 to 4 by ward, 2027..................................................... 39

Map 16: Forecast number of children aged 5 to 11 by ward, 2022 ................................................... 40

Map 17: Forecast number of children aged 5 to 11 by ward, 2027 ................................................... 41

Map 18: Forecast number of children aged 12 to 16 by ward level, 2022 ........................................ 42

Map 19: Forecast number of children aged 12 to 16 by ward, 2027 ................................................. 43

Appendices ................................................................................................................................................ 44 Appendix 1: Manchester estimates for 0-16 year olds, 2016 and 2017 ............................................... 44 Appendix 2: Single year of age by age groups by ward, 2017 ............................................................. 44 Appendix 3: Forecast number of children by age group in Manchester wards – 2017, 2022 and 2027 46 Appendix 4: Definitions ....................................................................................................................... 47

Introduction

This report looks at some of the key characteristics of children living in specific areas around the city, presented as a broad view of Manchester’s child residents, followed by school stage analysis - preschool, primary school age and secondary school age. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2016 mid-year estimate (MYE) of the 0 to 16 years old population, released July 2017, is 114,075. Manchester City Council’s in-house estimate is 116,461 and forecasts a mid-2017 population of 119,822 (MCCFM W2016). Appendix 2 breaks this down into single year of age. These figures are the latest in a long period of growth in the child population as shown in Figure 1. The estimated child population of Manchester was fairly static from the beginning of the previous decade until 2005, accelerating rapidly from that point. The current decade’s mid-year estimates for Manchester continue with even higher rates of growth, rising 2.2% between 2015 and 2016 (2,500 more children).

Figure 1: Change in the number of Manchester children, 2002-2016

The initial growth in Manchester’s child population was due to the substantial rise in the number of children under the age of four between 2005 and 2008, as shown in Table 1, in particular from the increase in the number of births. This coincided with the rise in immigration from countries that had just joined the EU, such as Poland, as well as from non-EU countries such as Pakistan. Although the level of growth is estimated to have reduced slightly since 2013, preschool numbers have continued to increase because more babies are being born to settled migrants, more young children are joining the city from both the UK and abroad and, while numbers leaving for the rest of the UK are at similar levels to last decade, fewer children have left to live abroad. Growth over the last ten years in the number of 0-16 year olds has averaged 2% per annum, peaking in 2011 at 2.7%.

Table 1: Change in the number of Manchester 0 to 4 year olds, 2002-2016

This rise in preschool children started to affect the number of children starting school in 2009 and has continued as higher numbers of children aged 0 to 4 live in the city each year. A large cohort of children was ready to start school in September 2016 (aged 4 in Figure 2) set to be the largest to date, putting more pressure on primary school places. However, the slowdown in the annual rise of the estimated 0 to 4 population beginning in 2013 is an indication that the annual increases in primary school admission numbers should be a little lower in 2017 than seen recently, with similar increases to follow in subsequent years. This will depend on the family composition of current international immigrants, however, as indicators of immigration, such as National Insurance number registrations (NINo), are at very high levels in 2017. NINo registrations tend towards young males without children and international students so are less likely to have accompanying children, however, if these new immigrants settle then births will keep rising.

91,728 91,909 91,787 92,574 93,688 95,273 96,705 98,225100,316

103,047105,430

107,185109,059

111,626114,075

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000

Rate

of

gro

wth

Resid

ent

0-1

6 y

ear

old

s

Child population growth in Manchester, 2002-2016

Source: ONS MYEs 2002-2016 Analysis: Public Intelligence, PRI 2018

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0-4s 25,946 25,987 26,633 27,258 28,689 30,163 31,770 33,322 34,510 35,640 36,517 37,468 37,828 38,291 38,744 39,207

change - 41 646 625 1,431 1,474 1,607 1,552 1,188 1,130 877 951 360 463 453 463

Source: ONS Mid-year estimates 2001-2016 Analysis: Public Intelligence, PRI 2017

Overview of Manchester’s current child population

This section looks at the current official child population at city level by single year of age (ONS mid-year estimate 2016) and some comparisons with other data sources. This is followed by detail at smaller areas for the child population as a whole and some analysis of their characteristics. Finally, there are some insights into the potential child population five and ten years’ on from 2017.

Figure 2: Number of children by age, 2016

There are now significant differences in age distribution within Manchester’s child population. Figure 2 details the latest mid-year estimate for children and shows that numbers are fairly consistent between those aged 12 to 16 years old, with year cohort sizes of around 5,500 children, which was the norm for children in Manchester until recently. As a result, up until a couple of years ago annual secondary school age admissions were fairly predictable; however, the number starting Year 7 rose from September 2014 and is set to increase annually. There were around 500 more children in Year 7 across the city in 2016 than in 2014 and 2018 should see a higher increase in applications for secondary school places than in 2017. Backwards from age eleven down to birth, each year cohort increases in number as they get younger (apart from a spike in four year olds) so that there are around 2,760 more babies than 14 year olds (the smallest group) estimated for 2016. While the city tends to lose a couple of thousand residents each year through internal emigration (people moving out of the city to the rest of the UK), movement in from abroad outweighs movement to overseas and this element of migration has been contributing to population growth. Internal migration figures for 2016 indicate hardly any loss from children leaving the city and, while this is a measure of Manchester’s success in providing an attractive place to live, if this pattern continues then greater numbers of preschool children will feed into the school system. The estimated net internal migration for all children (birth to sixteen years old) in 2016 was a loss of 1,286 compared to a net international migration gain of 1,274 so overall there was an estimated net loss of just 12 children. Within the age groups, as usual, emigration to the rest of the UK was higher in those aged 1 to 4, particularly one year olds, and masks small net internal gains of 14 and 16 year olds. International immigration was higher in 1 to 4 year olds, so preschool children leaving the city were being replaced with children from abroad (although some of the children leaving may have initially come from abroad). This is a common pattern in Manchester, however, while more preschool children leave the city than join it from abroad, the net gain from abroad is increasing annually so the gap is closing. Figure 3 shows counts of Manchester child residents within the different key stages (allocating all children aged 4, 11 and 14 to their lower key stage)1 to illustrate that children of preschool and Key Stage 1 ages are much higher in number than those in Key Stage 2 onwards in 2016. However, the number of resident children of Key Stage 2 age is now almost 26,000 compared to 22,200 in 2013 with the larger year groups, starting at age 10, ready to feed through into the secondary school system in 2018.

1 Key Stage 1 includes 4 year olds, Key Stage 2 includes 7 year olds, Key Stage 3 includes 11 and Key Stage 4 includes 14 year olds, but Figure 3 is based on June 30th data before the start of the academic year in September, so the majority (apart from those born July to September) will have had a birthday before the next June 30th e.g. most four year olds will be five by June 30th in Key Stage 1 Reception Year.

8031

7971

7711

7652

7842

7352

7308

6945

6853

6705

6456

5974

5574

5528

5274

5378

5521

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Num

ber

of c

hild

ren

Age of child

Child population in Manchester, ONS 2016

Source: ONS MYE 2016 Analysis: Public Intelligence, PRI 2017

Figure 3: Preschool and school age cohorts

Children aged from birth to 16 at ward level

Cheetham has by far the highest number of children with around 7,450 children aged 0 to 16 resident, as shown in Table 2, in part because it is geographically large and a very densely populated ward, with an estimated 26,216 residents. However, children form a greater proportion of the residents in Gorton South and Harpurhey (29.7% and 28.8% respectively) than in Cheetham (28.4%), well above the city average of 21.4%. Longsight, being a smaller ward, has considerably fewer children and fewer households but is notable because it has the highest ratio of children to households with 882 children to every 1,000 households compared to Gorton South with 830 and Cheetham with 857. The five wards with the greatest share of the city’s children are indicated in the table, which is ordered by size of child population. The proportion of residents who are children in Cheetham is estimated to have risen by two percentage points since the Census in 2011 with over 1,500 more children now resident. In terms of numbers this is the largest rise, as shown in Table 3, however, the proportion of children in this ward has not changed as significantly as some other wards in the city. Harpurhey is estimated to have seen the largest increase in the proportion of children in its ward, 4.1 percentage points higher than in 2011, with over 1,400 more children, followed by Miles Platting and Newton Heath which is 3.2 percentage points higher at 26.5% but this represents much smaller numbers, just 623 more than in 2011. These changes have a bearing on the ratio of dependants to working age adults, increasing childcare and affecting economic activity. Rising numbers of children also result in an additional need for supporting services such as schools and nurseries, leisure facilities and health care. Only Fallowfield is estimated to have a lower number of children in 2017 than in 2011 but seven wards have lower proportions of children estimated, as indicated in Table 3, because the number of adults has increased more. The number of higher education students living in these wards has not changed significantly and there has only been a rise in the number of older residents in Bradford and Chorlton Park, so most of this increase must be from non-student working age adults without children. At broad area level, wards in the north of the city contain relatively high to very high numbers for all age groups, but Cheetham stands out with consistently high concentrations of children in all the groups, particularly those aged 0 to 7. Harpurhey and Crumpsall appear to be acting as overspill areas by families with children wanting to live near Cheetham Hill and their child populations are growing faster than most. In the eastern wards of the city, Gorton South is following the same pattern as Cheetham with slightly lower numbers but with a higher proportion of the ward’s population being children. Gorton North and Longsight mirror Crumpsall and Harpurhey but the spread of families is more likely to be from Longsight, with Gorton South actually being the overspill ward (2018 ward boundary changes should make this more apparent).

Table 2: Distribution of Manchester children by ward, 2017

Moss Side is the stand out ward in the western areas of the central part of the city, with increases in Hulme, Rusholme and Ardwick suggesting that these wards contain popular overflow neighbourhoods, although numbers are far lower than seen in the north of the city. Below this, the inner south wards of Manchester contain the city’s lowest numbers of children (when excluding City Centre ward) with only relatively small increases in the estimated number of children in most of these wards since 2011. Burnage ward remains the exception in the inner south wards, with relatively high numbers of children, but there has been little growth in this ward either. The ward’s proportion of children has been nudged out of the ten highest ranked wards, falling below a quarter of the ward’s population. Sharston, with 3.7% of the city’s child population, is Wythenshawe’s ward of choice for families with children, falling into the top ten for the highest number of children although considerably lower in number than wards in the north of the city (shown in Table 2). Sharston and Burnage are suburbs, and being further away from the city have less population movement than in the inner city areas. This means these wards are attractive to settled families with children and as such have higher proportions of teenagers.

Ward

No. of

children

aged 0-16

% of city's

0-16

population

Total number of

occupied

households

Average number

of 0-16s per

1,000 households

Cheetham 7,449 6.2% 8,695 857

Gorton South 6,680 5.6% 8,047 830

Moss Side 5,980 5.0% 7,878 759

Harpurhey 5,779 4.8% 8,165 708

Gorton North 4,952 4.1% 7,354 673

Crumpsall 4,941 4.1% 6,866 720

Longsight 4,775 4.0% 5,416 882

Bradford 4,503 3.8% 8,308 542

Sharston 4,449 3.7% 7,118 625

Miles Platting and Newton Heath 4,105 3.4% 7,152 574

Burnage 4,039 3.4% 5,818 694

Ardwick 3,969 3.3% 7,442 533

Baguley 3,926 3.3% 6,609 594

Higher Blackley 3,802 3.2% 6,405 594

Charlestown 3,772 3.1% 6,540 577

Northenden 3,715 3.1% 6,609 562

Moston 3,537 3.0% 6,504 544

Ancoats and Clayton 3,519 2.9% 9,413 374

Brooklands 3,387 2.8% 6,502 521

Woodhouse Park 3,324 2.8% 6,409 519

Whalley Range 3,249 2.7% 6,366 510

Levenshulme 3,215 2.7% 5,615 573

Chorlton Park 3,100 2.6% 6,885 450

Rusholme 2,930 2.4% 4,647 631

Didsbury East 2,884 2.4% 5,782 499

Fallowfield 2,557 2.1% 4,848 527

Hulme 2,520 2.1% 8,239 306

Chorlton 2,492 2.1% 6,000 415

Old Moat 2,370 2.0% 5,561 426

Didsbury West 1,963 1.6% 6,109 321

Withington 1,509 1.3% 5,052 299

City Centre 430 0.4% 9,861 44

Manchester Total 119,822 100.0% 218,215 549

Source: MCCFM W2016 Analysis: Public Intelligence, PRI 2017

Table 3: Distribution of Manchester children by ward, change 2011-2017

Map 1 shows the estimated number of children living in lower super output areas (LSOAs) in Manchester with ward boundaries overlaid, using ONS MYE 2016. The LSOAs containing high numbers of children are still in the wards already mentioned but the foci have shifted. It shows that there are lots of children spread across Gorton South and Moss Side wards, but in Cheetham there are very few children at the City Centre end of the ward and actually the densely populated clusters are between Cheetham Hill and Crumpsall. The darker LSOA in Cheetham has the highest number of resident children in the city, particularly those of primary school age. The other darker LSOAs on the map are in Moss Side and Gorton South. The map illustrates Moss Side’s higher density areas spread into neighbouring Whalley Range and Fallowfield as well as the connection between areas of Longsight and Gorton South. It also shows the high density clusters in the Openshaw area of Bradford ward, and in Higher Blackley and Charlestown around North City and Blackley Village.

Ward

No. of

children

aged 0-16 in

2017

No. of

children

aged 0-16 in

2011 Change

2017 <16

% of total

ward

population

percentage

point

change

since 2011

Cheetham 7,449 5,884 1,565 28.4% 2.3

Harpurhey 5,779 4,353 1,426 28.8% 4.1

Gorton South 6,680 5,431 1,249 29.7% 2.1

Moss Side 5,980 4,898 1,082 26.1% 0.2

Crumpsall 4,941 4,002 939 27.7% 2.6

Longsight 4,775 3,863 912 26.8% 1.8

Bradford 4,503 3,601 902 21.9% -0.9

Gorton North 4,952 4,180 772 27.9% 2.5

Ancoats and Clayton 3,519 2,806 713 18.0% 0.6

Higher Blackley 3,802 3,174 628 25.0% 1.8

Miles Platting and Newton Heath 4,105 3,482 623 26.5% 3.2

Moston 3,537 2,980 557 22.2% 1.7

Sharston 4,449 3,919 530 25.2% 1.8

Hulme 2,520 2,003 517 13.1% 1.2

Northenden 3,715 3,259 456 23.4% 1.4

Rusholme 2,930 2,476 454 20.2% 2.0

Ardwick 3,969 3,524 445 19.0% 0.6

Brooklands 3,387 2,957 430 22.9% 2.3

Baguley 3,926 3,497 429 24.6% 1.0

Didsbury West 1,963 1,559 404 14.3% 1.8

Charlestown 3,772 3,391 381 24.1% 0.5

Withington 1,509 1,198 311 10.0% 1.1

Woodhouse Park 3,324 3,037 287 22.3% -0.2

Didsbury East 2,884 2,599 285 19.9% 1.8

Levenshulme 3,215 2,960 255 20.2% 1.0

Chorlton 2,492 2,334 158 17.3% 0.8

Burnage 4,039 3,885 154 24.1% -1.4

Chorlton Park 3,100 2,964 136 18.4% -1.1

Old Moat 2,370 2,253 117 14.9% -0.6

City Centre 430 366 64 2.0% 0.0

Whalley Range 3,249 3,239 10 19.7% -1.3

Fallowfield 2,557 2,566 -9 14.8% -2.1

Manchester 119,822 102,640 17,182 21.4% 1.0

Source: MCCFM W2016 Analysis: Public Intelligence, PRI 2017

The northern half of the city has a much higher number of children than the south, with only Benchill, centred between Sharston and Northenden, having a significantly high concentration of numbers in the lower half of the city, indicated by the map’s darker areas.

Map 1: Estimated number of children by output area, 2016

Ethnicity of children Manchester is a welcoming, cosmopolitan city and those who live and work in the city are proud of its cultural diversity. Maps 2-6 illustrate the distribution of children from the five broad ethnic groups defined by the Census in 2011.

Map 2: Number of dependent children (see Appendix for definition) – White ethnic group, 2011

Map 3: Number of dependent children– Asian/Asian British ethnic group, 2011

The Census was taken in 2011 so the data are somewhat out of date, however no alternative data source gives a complete picture of children of all ages.

Map 4: Number of dependent children– Black/Black British ethnic group, 2011

Map 5: Number of dependent children – Mixed/multiple ethnic group, 2011

Map 6: Number of dependent children– ‘Other’ ethnic group, 2011

Families with children

As an alternative to the number of children in a ward, Table 4 uses 2011 Census data to rank wards by the percentage of families that have dependent children aged 0 to 16 (the Census definition of families includes couples without dependent children). This is a filtered version of household data that does not count things like student households, just family units, so is more relevant to this report. Bearing in mind that these data were taken seven years ago, the data show that Moss Side has the greatest proportion of families with at least one dependent child, with almost two out of three families having dependent children, and while this ward is not one of the highest in terms of family numbers, it has the third highest number of children, and as shown in Map 1, areas of very high density, both suggesting there may be issues with overcrowding.

Table 4: Proportion of families containing dependent children per ward, 2011

Number of families with dependent children

Total number of Families

% of families containing dependent children

Moss Side 2,381 3,678 64.7%

Longsight 1,845 2,931 62.9%

Ardwick 1,832 2,934 62.4%

Gorton South 2,958 4,916 60.2%

Cheetham 2,969 5,035 59.0%

Gorton North 2,475 4,206 58.8%

Harpurhey 2,586 4,441 58.2%

Crumpsall 2,102 3,834 54.8%

Miles Platting and Newton Heath 2,097 3,863 54.3%

Charlestown 2,091 3,883 53.9%

Baguley 2,135 3,973 53.7%

Burnage 2,166 4,082 53.1%

Fallowfield 1,356 2,560 53.0%

Sharston 2,416 4,567 52.9%

Bradford 2,018 3,843 52.5%

Rusholme 1,172 2,247 52.2%

Levenshulme 1,545 3,043 50.8%

Higher Blackley 1,901 3,756 50.6%

Whalley Range 1,750 3,471 50.4%

Woodhouse Park 1,827 3,665 49.8%

Old Moat 1,308 2,670 49.0%

Northenden 1,961 4,055 48.4%

Chorlton Park 1,830 3,870 47.3%

Brooklands 1,918 4,076 47.1%

Moston 1,877 4,151 45.2%

Ancoats and Clayton 1,669 3,712 45.0%

Hulme 1,200 2,840 42.3%

Didsbury East 1,574 3,727 42.2%

Chorlton 1,414 3,449 41.0%

Withington 674 1,779 37.9%

Didsbury West 969 2,852 34.0%

City Centre 219 2,291 9.6%

Source: Census Table QS118, ONS, Crown Copyright. Analysis Public Intelligence, PRI

Neither of the other wards in the top three has extremely high numbers of children - Longsight is ranked ninth and Ardwick only eleventh, and neither has a particularly high number of families (all wards with over 4,000 families are highlighted in the table), so the data are showing that, while relatively smaller in number, these wards are very popular with families with dependent children. Taking Longsight as an example, its low ranking demonstrates that when wards are not consistent in size it is easy for a ward to not feature as significant if based on a single measure, such as the number of children in a ward. There are double the number of children in Longsight per hectare than in Cheetham and a higher

proportion of children per household although both are very high. Geographically, Longsight is less than a third of the size of Cheetham and has almost four thousand fewer residential properties. To explore this further, instead of showing the proportion of families with children as in Table 4, Table 5 has had families that do not have any dependent children removed from the analysis. Table 5 just shows the four wards that average more than two children per family in 2011 (as this is an average, there will be families with one child and families with three or more). This only gives a guide to which wards have the highest ratio of children to families with children as they are not recent data. The average will undercount the true number per family as many more families will have one child than have more than three children per household so it will reduce the average. Longsight has the second largest average number of children per family, and Rusholme, not a ward that has featured so far, is highest, indicating that though nearly half of the families in this ward do not have children, those that have children have more of them. Moss Side, with almost two thirds of the ward’s families containing children, also has the third highest average number of children per family, suggesting that most families in this ward have children and many have large families. As Cheetham’s child population has grown at a faster rate than Moss Side since 2011 but there has been very little family-friendly housing built in this ward, it is fair to assume that Cheetham will exhibit a very similar profile to Longsight in 2017 and possibly have overtaken Moss Side in the ranking.

Table 5: Wards averaging more than two children per family, 2011

Ward Children aged 0 to16 Derived no. of

families with children

Average no. of children in

families

Rusholme 2,476 1,172 2.1

Longsight 3,863 1,845 2.1

Moss Side 4,898 2,381 2.1

Cheetham 5,884 2,969 2.0

Source: Census Table QS118, ONS, Crown Copyright. Analysis Public Intelligence, PRI

Map 7 shows the number of household spaces containing five or more people at the time of the Census2 (NB this will include households that are not families such as student households so findings in wards near popular student areas are as likely to relate to large student households as they are families with children). The four wards shown in Table 5 feature in Map 7 as having the highest numbers of large households, with the addition of Old Moat (which contained the third highest proportion of families with 12 to 18 year olds in 2011) and Crumpsall. It shows that the LSOAs with high clusters of children shown in Map 1 broadly correlate with the high clusters of households with five or more residents in Map 7. This further suggests that these wards are popular with large families. It is important to bear in mind that Map 7 is based on 2011 data, but generally the wards with high numbers of children in 2016 are the same in 2011, the volume has just increased.

2 Definitions are provided in Appendix 4

Map 7: Large household sizes, 2011

Households with children

Census data about household type includes some characteristics of households with dependent children. Table 6 breaks down household counts in wards by those households containing dependent children and within that group, those headed by a lone parent, along with the proportion of that type of household. It has the top five rankings for each column highlighted as well as the highest in each column in bold text. This shows that Gorton South and Harpurhey are high across four of the five variables. Burnage and Longsight stand out as having a high proportion of households with children in wards that have relatively low numbers of households, whereas Hulme, City Centre and Ancoats & Clayton have very low proportions of households with children within relatively high numbers of households.

Table 6: Households with dependent children and lone parent households by ward, 2011

Wards All

households

All households

with dependent

children

Lone parent with dependent

children households

Dependent children

households as % of all

households

Lone parent

households as % of all

households with

dependent children

Cheetham 8,273 2,891 976 34.9% 33.8%

City Centre 8,052 219 57 2.7% 26.0%

Ancoats and Clayton 7,841 1,634 871 20.8% 53.3%

Gorton South 7,830 2,915 1,215 37.2% 41.7%

Harpurhey 7,810 2,531 1,360 32.4% 53.7%

Hulme 7,309 1,174 601 16.1% 51.2%

Sharston 7,254 2,380 1,120 32.8% 47.1%

Gorton North 7,052 2,423 1,137 34.4% 46.9%

Bradford 7,039 1,959 1,016 27.8% 51.9%

Moss Side 6,847 2,330 1,224 34.0% 52.5%

Miles Platting and Newton Heath 6,846 2,053 1,156 30.0% 56.3%

Chorlton Park 6,659 1,796 692 27.0% 38.5%

Brooklands 6,551 1,888 667 28.8% 35.3%

Crumpsall 6,510 2,032 610 31.2% 30.0%

Baguley 6,470 2,090 884 32.3% 42.3%

Ardwick 6,436 1,805 811 28.0% 44.9%

Northenden 6,268 1,928 772 30.8% 40.0%

Charlestown 6,237 2,046 969 32.8% 47.4%

Chorlton 6,188 1,389 254 22.4% 18.3%

Whalley Range 6,185 1,700 479 27.5% 28.2%

Moston 6,115 1,843 745 30.1% 40.4%

Didsbury West 6,103 959 174 15.7% 18.1%

Higher Blackley 6,063 1,863 927 30.7% 49.8%

Didsbury East 5,970 1,547 308 25.9% 19.9%

Woodhouse Park 5,863 1,790 852 30.5% 47.6%

Burnage 5,789 2,111 899 36.5% 42.6%

Old Moat 5,423 1,283 580 23.7% 45.2%

Levenshulme 5,366 1,504 428 28.0% 28.5%

Longsight 4,767 1,772 488 37.2% 27.5%

Withington 4,753 657 208 13.8% 31.7%

Fallowfield 4,632 1,313 512 28.3% 39.0%

Rusholme 4,468 1,128 305 25.2% 27.0%

Manchester 204,969 56,953 23,297 27.8% 40.9%

Source: Census Table DC4408, ONS, Crown Copyright. Analysis Public Intelligence, PRI

Almost 41% of Manchester households with children were in lone parent families in 2011. Other than Moss Side and Hulme (which has low numbers), the wards with over half their households with children headed by a lone parent are in the north east of the city. Harpurhey stands out as having the highest number of households with children headed by a lone parent in a ward, and lone parents heading over half of its very high number of households with dependent children (third in ranking). These wards contrast with Didsbury West, Chorlton and Didsbury East, which all have fewer than one in five households with children headed by a lone parent.

Tenure of households 2011 Census tenure data do not indicate child ages within households so direct comparisons cannot be made, however, Figure 4 shows ward level tenure types to consider whether there are any links between wards with a high numbers of households of a particular tenure and high numbers of children.

Figure 4: Tenure of households within wards, 2011

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500Ward household tenure, Census 2011

Owner Occupier Social Rented Private Rented Other

Source: Census Table KS402, ONS. Analysis Public Intelligence, PRI

Comparing Figure 4 with Table 6 suggests only a very slight association between wards with higher numbers of owner occupiers and higher numbers of households with children; interestingly the top areas with higher numbers of both are in wards traditionally associated with older people, suggesting that a demographic change may have been occurring in these areas. There is a clear disassociation between private rented households and households with children, except in Cheetham, Crumpsall and Longsight which is probably due to the low availability of alternative tenures. There is, however, a strong positive association between social rented households and households with children, as Figure 5 shows, with Cheetham, Gorton South and Harpurhey in the highest quadrant for both factors.

Figure 5: Relationship between social renting and households with children by ward, 2011

Source: Census Table KS402 and KS102, ONS, Crown Copyright. Analysis Public Intelligence, PRI

Cheetham

City centre

Gorton South

Harpurhey

Moss Side

Sharston

Withington

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

So

cia

l re

nte

d h

ou

se

ho

lds

All Households with dependent children

Number of households with dependent children compared to number of social rented households by ward, 2011

Wards

These associations are to be expected as Manchester has a large stock of affordable housing for rent. Social renting is widespread throughout the city3; however, while there has always been plenty of privately rented housing in the city, it has been focused around the city centre and in areas popular with university students. This is changing, however, with an increase in properties being bought to let outside the centre and taken up by families with children, Crumpsall is a good example of where this has happened. Social rented is usually viewed as a long term, maybe even lifetime tenure rather than renewable on a regular basis like private rented. Areas with high proportions of private rented properties will have a higher household churn. This will not offer stability for families with children at school and in some areas the rising, higher costs of renting privately may become prohibitive. There had been a decrease of over 20,000 properties rented from the council between the 2001 and 2011 censuses as stock was sold. This was offset, but not entirely, by an increase in properties owned by other social landlords, however by 2011 there were over 1,300 fewer properties with social tenure than in 2001. This contrasted with the huge rise of almost 31,300 private rented properties over the decade. The consequence of this is that there will be diminishing availability of the type of housing that is favoured by families with children if the private rented housing market has continued to expand at a similar rate since, potentially forcing families unable to afford their homes to live elsewhere. Cheetham, Crumpsall and Longsight families with children who are living in private rented accommodation may be doing so to be close to their community rather than actively wanting to rent privately and struggling financially as a result.

Low-income households with children

The Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) produce a set of indices periodically about households living with various aspects of deprivation, one of which is the Income Deprivation affecting Children Index or IDACI. This looks specifically at the proportion of children aged 0 to15 in each Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) in England living in low income households (mostly benefit claimant households)4. A detailed report about how Manchester ranks in the IDACI is available on the Manchester City Council’s website titled F2a Indices of Deprivation 2015 – Income Deprivation affecting children as part of a full suite of reports relating to the latest Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2015. It is important to note that IDACI is concerned only with households with children in households with low income, it does not relate to any aspect of wealth, so it is entirely possible that a LSOA with lots of income-deprived households giving that LSOA a high ranking also has households with high incomes with or without dependent children, it also relates to data collected in 2012. At this time, IDACI estimated that 34.3% of children lived in households that were income deprived. Recent findings from the End Child Poverty Coalition have increased this percentage to 43.6% of Manchester’s children after housing costs. This estimate puts Manchester as having the second highest levels in the UK after Tower Hamlets (53.4%). DCLG do not produce the IDACI at ward level so a ‘best-fit’ of an LSOA to the ward it mostly falls into, based on the location of households within it, has been calculated 5 in order to estimate which wards in Manchester have the highest proportions of children living in income deprived households. The average scores of the LSOAs in each ward indicate that Ancoats and Clayton ward is proportionally the most deprived, with almost half of the ward’s children living in either out-of-work or low income households. Moss Side, however, has the highest number, with around 2,500 children living in income deprivation (relates to 2012 0-15 population); Harpurhey is second, with around 2,100 children living in low income households. Table 7 compares these findings with the ward level data published in the End Child Poverty Coalition’s (ECP) 2018 report for Manchester. The ward with the highest proportion of children in a ward are highlighted for both, with the following nine highest proportions for each indicator highlighted in a darker shade. There are similarities, but only half are the same wards in the highest ten and there are higher

3 Social renting stock is nearly all run by housing associations, very little stock is now owned by Manchester City Council. 4 Income deprived families are defined here as families that either receive Income Support or income-based Jobseekers Allowance or income-

based Employment and Support Allowance or Pension Credit (Guarantee) or families not in receipt of these benefits but in receipt of Working Tax Credit or Child Tax Credit with an equivalised income (excluding housing benefit) below 60 per cent of the national median before housing costs. 5Derived by Manchester City Council to measure deprivation in Manchester wards as a guide only. Ward level data are not officially recognised by

DCLG. All commentary regarding wards is based on these derivations. The denominator used for ward level is the sum of the LSOAs’ population within that ward. Where a LSOA straddles a ward boundary, the proportion of properties in that LSOA located in both wards has been calculated using the Local Land and Property Gazetteer and those proportions have been applied to the total population of the LSOA to attribute population to each ward.

proportions in the latest data, with five wards indicated as having over half their resident child population in poverty after housing costs. The highest ECP figures need considering in terms of numbers rather than proportions, as these wards tend to have very high numbers of children residents. Of the 51,000 children estimated by ECP to be living in poverty across the city, nearly a fifth live in Moss Side, Cheetham and Gorton South. ECP’s findings start from the same source as IDACI but is using 2014 data (IDACI 2015 is based on 2012) then adjusted so it is not directly comparable6. However, both datasets show high proportions of Manchester’s children estimated to be in living in poverty in particular areas of the city.

Table 7: Proportion of income-deprived children by ward, 2015 and 2017

Prevalence of child poverty IDACI from IoD 2015 EndChildPoverty 2017

Ward income deprived children

BEFORE housing costs

AFTER housing costs

% Number % Number %

Ancoats and Clayton 49.7% 1,081 31.9% 1,603 47.3%

Ardwick 41.3% 1,301 34.7% 1,884 50.2%

Baguley 34.7% 905 21.7% 1,407 33.8%

Bradford 41.9% 1,167 28.5% 1,763 43.0%

Brooklands 26.8% 679 20.7% 1,057 32.2%

Burnage 31.1% 1,331 30.9% 1,957 45.5%

Charlestown 40.1% 1,090 27.3% 1,649 41.2%

Cheetham 34.8% 2,578 38.5% 3,614 53.9%

Chorlton 7.6% 224 9.2% 365 14.9%

Chorlton Park 25.6% 679 21.8% 1,050 33.7%

City Centre 8.5% 23 8.9% 38 14.5%

Crumpsall 27.1% 1,415 30.5% 2,069 44.6%

Didsbury East 9.5% 324 12.4% 519 19.8%

Didsbury West 8.4% 101 6.6% 165 10.8%

Fallowfield 34.4% 852 32.0% 1,248 46.9%

Gorton North 37.4% 1,337 29.5% 2,001 44.1%

Gorton South 35.0% 2,092 32.7% 3,049 47.6%

Harpurhey 47.9% 1,718 31.1% 2,569 46.5%

Higher Blackley 40.3% 1,135 28.2% 1,711 42.5%

Hulme 41.2% 757 33.0% 1,105 48.1%

Levenshulme 22.6% 914 29.2% 1,337 42.8%

Longsight 29.6% 1,708 38.9% 2,371 54.0%

Miles Platting and Newton Heath 46.7% 1,181 28.8% 1,791 43.7%

Moss Side 48.6% 2,317 40.5% 3,253 56.8%

Moston 34.5% 865 24.0% 1,328 36.9%

Northenden 37.1% 852 21.8% 1,327 33.9%

Old Moat 36.8% 813 31.5% 1,202 46.5%

Rusholme 32.8% 1,191 40.6% 1,646 56.1%

Sharston 38.1% 1,033 22.9% 1,604 35.5%

Whalley Range 19.3% 965 28.5% 1,420 41.9%

Withington 22.8% 346 26.0% 521 39.2%

Woodhouse Park 38.9% 862 23.4% 1,333 36.2%

Manchester 34.3% 34,283 29.3% 51,034 43.6%

Analysis: Public Intelligence, PRI 2018 Source: DCLG 2015 and End Child Poverty Coalition 2018

ECP’s figures were also produced for 2016 and comparisons suggest that most wards have seen a rise in the number of children living in poverty over the course of twelve months. The key difference between

6 Percentage of children in poverty, July-Sept 2017 based on HMRC Aug 2014 out of work benefit households or in receipt of Working Tax Credit or

Child Tax Credit with an equivalised income (excluding housing benefit) below 60 per cent of the national median before housing costs as % of child benefit claimants. Adjusted to compensate for not all claimant households living in poverty and many working households being in poverty. Enhanced using Labour Force Survey, ONS 2017. http://www.endchildpoverty.org.uk/poverty-in-your-area-2018/ for full report and methodology

IDACI and ECP data, apart from the year it refers to, is a greater weighting towards out-of-work income deprivation in IDACI while the ECP report has attempted to factor in in-work poverty and uses data from the Labour Force Survey. In-work poverty has been found to be particularly prevalent in single parent families nationally; the charity Gingerbread has found poverty in a third of working single parent families surveyed and has an expectation that this will rise to two thirds by 2021. The wards with the highest proportions of lone parents in Table 7 are also in Table 8 with the highest proportions of income deprived children (IDACI). IDACI, as mentioned, is published at LSOA level and once ranked from most deprived to least deprived, the LSOAs are grouped into deciles (tenths) with the top decile representing the 10% most deprived LSOAs in England. Table 8 looks at how many of these most-deprived LSOAs are in Manchester. Of the 102 Manchester LSOAs that are in IDACI’s 10% most income-deprived in England, the highest number of LSOAs are in Harpurhey, with all but one of the ward’s LSOAs being in the most deprived decile in England.

Table 8: IDACI proportion of wards with LSOAs in the most deprived 10% of England, 2015

Ward Number of LSOAs assigned to ward

Number of LSOAs in most deprived 10% of England

% of ward's LSOAs in most deprived 10% of England

Ancoats and Clayton 11 7 63.6%

Ardwick 10 6 60.0%

Baguley 9 2 22.2%

Bradford 9 5 55.6%

Brooklands 8 1 12.5%

Burnage 9 2 22.2%

Charlestown 9 5 55.6%

Cheetham 11 4 36.4%

Chorlton 8 0 none

Chorlton Park 9 1 11.1%

City Centre 11 0 none

Crumpsall 8 0 none

Didsbury East 9 1 11.1%

Didsbury West 8 0 none

Fallowfield 7 3 42.9%

Gorton North 10 2 20.0%

Gorton South 9 3 33.3%

Harpurhey 10 9 90.0%

Higher Blackley 9 5 55.6%

Hulme 9 5 55.6%

Levenshulme 8 1 12.5%

Longsight 7 0 none

Miles Platting and Newton Heath 9 7 77.8%

Moss Side 7 6 85.7%

Moston 9 4 44.4%

Northenden 9 5 55.6%

Old Moat 9 4 44.4%

Rusholme 7 2 28.6%

Sharston 10 7 70.0%

Whalley Range 9 0 none

Withington 7 1 14.3%

Woodhouse Park 8 4 50.0%

Analysis Public Intelligence, PRI Source: DCLG 2015

Children aged from birth to 4 years

Map 8 and Table 9 look at the population of children aged 0 to 4 to pinpoint areas where numbers of preschool age children were estimated to be highest in 2016 according to ONS.

Map 8: Estimated number of children aged 0 to 4 by lower super output area, 2016

Map 8 shows Manchester’s current estimate of 0 to 4 year olds by lower super output area level (ONS MYE 2016) overlaid with ward boundaries. Despite being for 2016, it’s useful to show that high numbers of

preschool children are clustered in areas that would not be apparent at ward level. It shows that while

wards to the north around to the south-east suburbs of the inner city house the majority of children in this age group, Moss Side has very high numbers too, and there are higher density clusters in the outer suburbs.

Table 9 shows a more recent estimate of children aged 0 to 4 years old at ward level using MCCFM to forecast 2017. The number of preschool children in each ward is shown as a proportion of Manchester’s total 0 to 4 population to show where most are estimated to be living in the city, with the top five wards indicated. It also shows the rate per 1,000 households, with the highest ward highlighted. The city average is estimated at 1.81 preschool children per household.

Table 9: Estimated number of children aged 0 to 4 by ward, 2017

Ward

No. of

children

aged 0-4

% of city's

0-4

population

Total number of

occupied

households

Average number

of 0-4s per 1,000

households

Cheetham 2,322 5.9% 8,695 267

Gorton South 2,218 5.6% 8,047 276

Moss Side 1,975 5.0% 7,878 251

Harpurhey 1,887 4.8% 8,165 231

Gorton North 1,706 4.3% 7,354 232

Crumpsall 1,654 4.2% 6,866 241

Bradford 1,573 4.0% 8,308 189

Longsight 1,552 3.9% 5,416 287

Sharston 1,484 3.8% 7,118 208

Miles Platting and Newton Heath 1,300 3.3% 7,152 182

Burnage 1,241 3.1% 5,818 213

Baguley 1,237 3.1% 6,609 187

Ardwick 1,236 3.1% 7,442 166

Northenden 1,235 3.1% 6,609 187

Charlestown 1,192 3.0% 6,540 182

Ancoats and Clayton 1,163 2.9% 9,413 124

Higher Blackley 1,158 2.9% 6,405 181

Chorlton Park 1,150 2.9% 6,885 167

Woodhouse Park 1,141 2.9% 6,409 178

Whalley Range 1,138 2.9% 6,366 179

Brooklands 1,124 2.8% 6,502 173

Moston 1,122 2.8% 6,504 173

Levenshulme 1,072 2.7% 5,615 191

Hulme 964 2.4% 8,239 117

Rusholme 935 2.4% 4,647 201

Didsbury East 919 2.3% 5,782 159

Chorlton 882 2.2% 6,000 147

Old Moat 782 2.0% 5,561 141

Fallowfield 777 2.0% 4,848 160

Didsbury West 650 1.6% 6,109 106

Withington 532 1.3% 5,052 105

City Centre 183 0.5% 9,861 19

Manchester 39,506 100.0% 218,215 181

ward numbers are slightly lower in total than Manchester due to rounding

Source: MCCFM W2016 Analysis: Public Intelligence, PRI 2017

Table 9 shows that Cheetham has the highest proportion of Manchester’s preschool children with an estimated 2,322 children representing 5.9% of the city’s 0 to 4 population. Gorton South follows with 2,218, accounting for 5.6%. The highest five wards house over a quarter of the city’s youngest children (25.6%) as indicated in the table, but this is slightly lower than in previous years as wards such as Crumpsall and Bradford have increased their share of this population. As a ratio of preschool children to households, Table 9 also shows that even though Cheetham has the highest number of preschool children, Longsight is estimated to have the highest ratio of preschool children to total households, with one 0 to 4 year-old to every three or four households. Gorton South falls a close second, followed by Cheetham. This compares to one 0 to 4 year-old to every 50 households in the City Centre ward. This alone does not indicate the spread of children because a number of households will not contain children. Census table DC1113, while from 2011, allows calculation of the percentage of households with children in each ward to act as a guide. Table 10 shows the top ten wards when ranked by households where the youngest child is aged 0 to 4, and again shows that although Longsight had far fewer total households, it had both the highest proportion containing at least one child aged 0 to 4 of all households (21.5%) and of those with children (56.5%).

Table 10: Proportion of households with at least one child aged 0 to 4, 2011

Ward

Total no. of households

in 2011

Total with dependent

children

Youngest child age

0-4

% of ward’s total

households

% of ward’s total households with

dependent children

Cheetham 8,273 2,933 1,596 19.3% 54.4%

Gorton South 7,830 2,979 1,524 19.5% 51.2%

Moss Side 6,847 2,398 1,305 19.1% 54.4%

Gorton North 7,052 2,471 1,258 17.8% 50.9%

Harpurhey 7,810 2,580 1,247 16.0% 48.3%

Sharston 7,254 2,423 1,171 16.1% 48.3%

Crumpsall 6,510 2,086 1,100 16.9% 52.7%

Longsight 4,767 1,819 1,027 21.5% 56.5%

Bradford 7,039 2,038 1,001 14.2% 49.1%

Miles Platting & Newton Heath 6,846 2,113 996 14.5% 47.1%

Source: Census Table DC1113EW, ONS. Analysis: Public Intelligence, PRI

Table 11: Proportion of families with at least one child aged 0 to 4, 2011

Families with one or more 0 to 4 year old

Derived number of families with dependent children

% 0 to 4 in families with dependent children

Longsight 1,023 1,845 55.4%

Hulme 664 1,200 55.3%

Moss Side 1,297 2,381 54.5%

Cheetham 1,594 2,969 53.7%

Crumpsall 1,102 2,102 52.4% Source: Census Table QS118, ONS, Crown Copyright. Analysis Public Intelligence, PRI

Table 11 shows the five wards with the highest number of families with one or more 0 to 4 year olds in 2011 and an estimate of the proportion of all families with children that contain at least one child in this age group. One ward actually has a higher percentage than those shown, City Centre, where three quarters of the families with dependent children have a preschool child, however, the numbers are very low compared to other wards, 164 out of 219 families with children. There is no primary school provision in this ward because there has not been a previous need, but there is a now a free school in neighbouring Ancoats and Clayton to accommodate these children if their families have stayed in the city centre. Families with very young children, however, tend to leave the city centre before their children reach school age. Hulme appears in this table because although it does not have many families with dependent children, over half of the families that do have children have at least one child aged 0 to 4.

Longsight still comes top of this ranking with all five wards having more than half their families with children containing at least one aged 0 to 4 years old. The findings in Longsight are very similar to those in Table 10, suggesting that most households with children in these wards contain one family. Combining the findings from Tables 9 to 11 indicates that around half of these households must have more than one child

in this age group. This matches the findings in Table 12 where Longsight averages 1.4 children aged 0 to 4 per household (this does not account for any older children that may be in the household). Table 12 shows wards where the average number of children aged 0 to 4 in a household was above the city average of 1.29 in 2011. Some of these wards, like Fallowfield and Withington, have relatively small numbers of very young children, but they also have low numbers of households with these children compared to the other wards in the table.

Table 12: Wards with above average numbers of 0 to 4 year olds in households, 2011

Total number aged 0-4 in 2011 Census

Households with youngest child aged 0 to 4

Average number of 0 to 4s per household

Longsight 1,444 1,027 1.41

Rusholme 816 597 1.37

Cheetham 2,171 1,596 1.36

Moss Side 1,761 1,305 1.35

Bradford 1,335 1,001 1.33

Gorton South 2,031 1,524 1.33

Crumpsall 1,464 1,100 1.33

Ardwick 1,221 928 1.32

Gorton North 1,653 1,258 1.31

Fallowfield 770 591 1.30

Chorlton 882 680 1.30

Withington 395 305 1.30

Manchester 36,413 28,258 1.29

Source: Census Tables KS102 and DC1113EW, ONS. Analysis Public Intelligence, PRI

Deprivation links with preschool children

Children living specifically in income-deprived households are discussed earlier in this report, but general deprivation is discussed here because there is a strong correlation between areas in England’s most deprived LSOAs on the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) which is a basket of measures relating to different aspects of deprivation, and those with high numbers of preschool children. Map 9 uses the MYE 2016 data used in Map 8 but at LSOA level and using the same ranges used in Map 10, which is ranked by how deprived the LSOAs score on the IMD, from most deprived to least. This highlights that many of the areas with high numbers of preschool children are the same as the areas that are ranked in the top 5% most deprived in England, particularly around the inner suburbs and Wythenshawe in the far south. Harpurhey, Miles Platting and Newton Heath, Bradford, Sharston, Brooklands, Moss Side, Cheetham, Crumpsall, Longsight and Gorton wards have LSOAs with relatively high numbers of preschool children corresponding to the most deprived LSOAs. On the IMD, Miles Platting and Newton Heath ward has the greatest numbers of LSOAs ranked as the most deprived in England and Didsbury West the most LSOAs ranked as the least deprived; the numbers of children aged 0 to 4 in each of these wards are correspondingly high and low.

Of concern is that many of the areas that have been housing increasing numbers of preschool children, have demographic characteristics that point to these children being from deprived backgrounds, which itself is linked to poor education attainment, health and employment prospects. There is no indication that this trend is abating. The deprivation data covers all households, unlike the IDACI which is only concerned with children, but Map 9 correlates strongly with Map 10. This is not saying that all deprived households have preschool children in them, however, because of the high numbers and similarity in areas highlighted on the maps, chances are that many of these deprived households do contain young children.

Map 9: Number of children aged 0 to 4 at LSOA level, MYE 2016 ONS

Map 10: 2015 Index of Multiple Deprivation at LSOA level, DCLG

Children aged from 5 to 11 years

Figure 6 shows the impact that international migration has had on today’s 5 to 11 year olds in Manchester. As fewer children have left the city in their preschool years, and additional children have joined the city, 2017 has a much higher population of 5 to 11 year olds than seen in 2011, estimated at 51,461 children compared to 39,152 at the time of the last census, which is a 31.4% increase. 2014-subnational population projections have a lower figure of 48,389 children aged 5 to 11 for 2017 but ONS have been issuing mid-year estimates that are higher than their projections since 2014, with 620 more 5-11 year olds in their 2016 estimates than in their projection for 2016 so a figure for 2017 of 48,389 is highly likely to be an underestimate.

Figure 6: Primary school age children by ward, 2011 and 2017

Figure 7: Primary school age children projection and forecast, 2014-2027

The number of 5 to 11 year olds is set to continue to increase annually and by 2027 reach 50,442 based on ONS projections or 57,751 based on MCCFM figures as shown in Figure 7. The trajectory of the last three mid-year estimates from ONS suggests an endpoint in 2027, in the region of 54,000 children. Map 11 uses the same ranges as Map 8 for comparison. The high density areas in the outer edges of the inner suburbs, Miles Platting and Newton Heath, Bradford, Longsight and Gorton mirror Map 8 but many of these areas have a higher volume than seen at preschool age.

Map 11: Estimated number of children aged 5 to 11 by output area, 2016

Table 13 is ranked by the number of children within Manchester’s wards aged from 5 to 11 years old using 2017 MCCFM data as in Table 10. Each ward’s primary school-age children are shown as a proportion of Manchester’s total, highlighting the wards with a greater share of the city’s children. Table 13 shows that Cheetham is estimated to have the highest number of children (3,242) and the highest percentage (6.3%) of the city’s primary school age children. The top five wards are the same five wards that are highest in preschool age numbers shown in Table 9, and the ranking is the same for Cheetham followed by Gorton South but Harpurhey replaces Moss Side as third. The top five wards have higher density rates per thousand households for this age group than a couple of years ago and account for over a quarter of the city’s 5 to 11 population (26.3%).

Table 13: Estimated number of children aged 5 to 11 by ward, 2017

As seen with preschool children, Cheetham has the highest number of primary school-age children, but is second to Longsight for the highest ratio of children to total households, with almost four 5 to 11 year olds to every ten households (although some households will have more and some will have none). There are now six wards that are estimated to have over three primary school-age children to every ten households, when this report was last updated in 2015 there were three. This increase is predominantly due to a reduction in emigration as families choose to stay in the city and their children reach school age.

Ward

No. of

children

aged 5-11

% of city's

5-11

population

Total number of

occupied

households

Average number

of 5-11s per

1,000 households

Cheetham 3,242 6.3% 8,695 373

Gorton South 2,811 5.5% 8,047 349

Harpurhey 2,661 5.2% 8,165 326

Moss Side 2,618 5.1% 7,878 332

Gorton North 2,183 4.2% 7,354 297

Longsight 2,076 4.0% 5,416 383

Crumpsall 2,022 3.9% 6,866 294

Sharston 1,915 3.7% 7,118 269

Bradford 1,869 3.6% 8,308 225

Miles Platting and Newton Heath 1,820 3.5% 7,152 254

Burnage 1,782 3.5% 5,818 306

Ardwick 1,773 3.4% 7,442 238

Baguley 1,729 3.4% 6,609 262

Higher Blackley 1,664 3.2% 6,405 260

Charlestown 1,616 3.1% 6,540 247

Northenden 1,597 3.1% 6,609 242

Ancoats and Clayton 1,566 3.0% 9,413 166

Moston 1,505 2.9% 6,504 231

Woodhouse Park 1,405 2.7% 6,409 219

Brooklands 1,389 2.7% 6,502 214

Levenshulme 1,353 2.6% 5,615 241

Whalley Range 1,269 2.5% 6,366 199

Didsbury East 1,250 2.4% 5,782 216

Rusholme 1,237 2.4% 4,647 266

Chorlton Park 1,209 2.3% 6,885 176

Fallowfield 1,124 2.2% 4,848 232

Chorlton 1,062 2.1% 6,000 177

Old Moat 1,030 2.0% 5,561 185

Hulme 992 1.9% 8,239 120

Didsbury West 846 1.6% 6,109 139

Withington 686 1.3% 5,052 136

City Centre 162 0.3% 9,861 16

Manchester 51,461 100.0% 218,215 236

Source: MCCFM W2016 Analysis: Public Intelligence, PRI 2017

Census data about the age of the youngest child were not provided with a 5 to 11 years old breakdown but Table 14 shows the wards with the highest proportions of households with the youngest child aged 5 to 15 in 2011. The ward names highlighted are the top ten wards with households containing 0 to 4 year olds and shows that the top four wards plus Gorton North, Moss Side and Miles Platting and Newton Heath in Table 14 also have the highest number of households where the youngest child is a 5 to 15 years old.

Table 14: Proportion of households with youngest child aged 5 to 15, 2011

Ward

Total no. of households in 2011

Total with dependent children

Youngest child aged 5 to 15

% of ward’s total households

% of ward’s total households with dependent children

Gorton South 7,830 2,979 1,250 16.0% 42.0%

Harpurhey 7,810 2,580 1,153 14.8% 44.7%

Cheetham 8,273 2,933 1,140 13.8% 38.9%

Sharston 7,254 2,423 1,047 14.4% 43.2%

Burnage 5,789 2,154 1,031 17.8% 47.9%

Charlestown 6,237 2,098 1,018 16.3% 48.5%

Gorton North 7,052 2,471 1,010 14.3% 40.9%

Baguley 6,470 2,149 996 15.4% 46.3%

Moss Side 6,847 2,398 965 14.1% 40.2%

Miles Platting and Newton Heath 6,846 2,113 937 13.7% 44.3%

Higher Blackley 6,063 1,910 934 15.4% 48.9%

Moston 6,115 1,892 915 15.0% 48.4%

Northenden 6,268 1,971 903 14.4% 45.8%

Bradford 7,039 2,038 874 12.4% 42.9%

Crumpsall 6,510 2,086 845 13.0% 40.5%

Chorlton Park 6,659 1,835 831 12.5% 45.3%

Woodhouse Park 5,863 1,831 817 13.9% 44.6%

Brooklands 6,551 1,934 811 12.4% 41.9%

Ardwick 6,436 1,855 808 12.6% 43.6%

Whalley Range 6,185 1,739 782 12.6% 45.0%

Didsbury East 5,970 1,573 768 12.9% 48.8%

Ancoats and Clayton 7,841 1,686 716 9.1% 42.5%

Longsight 4,767 1,819 690 14.5% 37.9%

Levenshulme 5,366 1,555 666 12.4% 42.8%

Fallowfield 4,632 1,354 639 13.8% 47.2%

Chorlton 6,188 1,415 623 10.1% 44.0%

Old Moat 5,423 1,313 576 10.6% 43.9%

Rusholme 4,468 1,156 477 10.7% 41.3%

Hulme 7,309 1,198 462 6.3% 38.6%

Didsbury West 6,103 976 415 6.8% 42.5%

Withington 4,753 683 304 6.4% 44.5%

City Centre 8,052 229 45 0.6% 19.7%

Source: Census Table DC1113EW - Age of youngest dependent child by household type, ONS. Analysis PRI

Higher Blackley had the highest proportion of households with children containing a youngest child aged 5 to 15 in 2011 (48.9%) and Burnage had the highest proportion of households overall (17.8%). Baguley and Charlestown also featured in the top ten wards of households containing a youngest child aged 5 to 15. Similarly, Didsbury East and Fallowfield had high proportions of households with dependent children containing a youngest child aged 5 to 15 but very low numbers of dependent children overall. It should be noted that the Census is now seven years out of date so this table may not reflect the current picture, and that it relates to where the youngest child is 5 to 15 rather than aged 0 to 4 so the wards with higher proportions in Table 14 have a slightly older profile. Also of note is that 16 year olds are not included in this table (see Appendix).

Table 15 shows the top five wards with the highest proportion of families where the youngest child is aged between 5 and 11. This gives lower proportions than Table 15 because it covers a smaller age range, however, the top five wards are the same in both. NB Table 15 does not show the proportion of families that have children aged 5 to 11, just those where the youngest child in the family is in this age group.

Table 15: Proportion of families with youngest child aged 5 to 11, 2011

Ward Families with youngest

child aged 5 to 11 Derived number of families with

dependent children % of all families with dependent children

Higher Blackley 613 1,901 32.2%

Charlestown 670 2,091 32.0%

Burnage 691 2,166 31.9%

Didsbury East 491 1,574 31.2%

Fallowfield 419 1,356 30.9%

Source: Census Table QS118, ONS, Crown Copyright. Analysis Public Intelligence, PRI

Higher Blackley, although 14 of 32 in the ranking of children aged 5 to 15, had the highest proportion of families in 2011 where the youngest child is between 5 and 11, i.e. at least7 one in three families with children have someone aged 5 to 11 living there. This is saying that although there were not the high numbers of children in this ward seen elsewhere, around a third of the families with dependent children had the youngest member of the family aged between 5 and 11. The wards in Table 15 also have around 40% of their families housing a youngest child aged 0 to 4 suggesting that their child population, while having a higher proportion in the lower age group, appear to be reasonably stable and remaining popular with families with children. Data about the number of children aged 5 to 11 in a household or family where the youngest is aged 0 to 4 are not produced, so all that can be ascertained about the true number and proportion of families with dependent children aged 5 to 11 is that it has to be equal to or higher than shown in Tables 14 and 15. In conclusion, increasing pressure on primary schools has been occurring since 2009 as larger cohorts have been applying for places each year. This is due to the higher number of births since 2005, higher numbers of children aged 0 to 4 joining the city, and a reduction in the number of preschool children migrating out of the city before starting school. The number of 5 to 11 year olds has been growing year on year as a result. The rising number of primary school aged children is going to have an impact on secondary schools as these children age-on in increasingly higher numbers. From September 2017 onwards admission numbers will increase at a much higher rate than previously seen because the four year olds from the first very high preschool cohort back in 2010 have reached secondary school age.

Children aged from 12 to 16 years

Table 16 is ranked by wards with the highest numbers of 12 to 16 year olds (secondary school age children for the purposes of this report) living in Manchester, estimated as at 2017. Each ward is also shown as a proportion of Manchester’s total 12 to 16 year-old population to show the distribution in the city. Cheetham, like the younger age groups, tops the ranking with the greatest number of children aged 12 to 16 (1,885) followed, again, by Gorton South, but in this age group Harpurhey is lower down the ranking than in the younger ages and Crumpsall makes an appearance in the top five. Longsight, unlike the younger age groups does not have the highest rate of children per household with Cheetham slightly higher and taking the top spot. As with the younger age groups, the top five wards account for over a quarter of the city’s 12 to 16 year olds (25.7%). There are only five years in Key Stages 3 and 4 so naturally the total numbers will be lower than the primary school age group which has seven, however, each single year of age within this group is fewer in number than the single years in the younger age groups8.

The end of the 2018 academic year will see the last of the smaller cohorts of children in the city. This should mark the beginning of an increasingly larger school population each year from now until 2028 when numbers are currently forecast to stabilise for a few years9.

7 because there will be 5 to 11 year olds in families with younger children 8 there are a few instances where an estimate is slightly higher in this group, but this only happens in a couple of the more gentrified wards 9 this is making no allowances for the unknown effects of BREXIT

Table 16: Estimated population aged 12 to 16 by ward, 2017

There are over 1,700 more children in this age group than seen 10 years ago and this number will rise considerably over the coming years as the current higher numbers of younger children go through the school system. Some wards traditionally associated with older families have significantly lower numbers than seen 10 years ago, such as Hulme, Ardwick, Withington, Fallowfield and Old Moat as they have become established areas for students whereas Cheetham, Gorton South, Crumpsall, Harpurhey and Chorlton have substantially increased their numbers. Map 12 shows 12 to 16 year olds as at mid-2016 according to ONS, using the same ranges as Map 8 and Map 11 for comparison. It shows higher numbers in the same areas as seen with the younger age groups, particularly Cheetham, Moss Side, Gorton South, Longsight and Rusholme, but there are also higher numbers at the outer edges of the inner city suburbs in Crumpsall, Harpurhey, Bradford, Whalley Range and Fallowfield which would be expected as older families tend to migrate out towards the suburbs.

Ward

No. of

children

aged 12-16

% of city's

12-16

population

Total number of

occupied

households

Average number

of 12-16s per

1,000 households

Cheetham 1,885 6.5% 8,695 217

Gorton South 1,651 5.7% 8,047 205

Moss Side 1,388 4.8% 7,878 176

Crumpsall 1,264 4.4% 6,866 184

Harpurhey 1,231 4.3% 8,165 151

Longsight 1,146 4.0% 5,416 212

Gorton North 1,063 3.7% 7,354 144

Bradford 1,062 3.7% 8,308 128

Sharston 1,049 3.6% 7,118 147

Burnage 1,016 3.5% 5,818 175

Miles Platting and Newton Heath 985 3.4% 7,152 138

Higher Blackley 980 3.4% 6,405 153

Charlestown 963 3.3% 6,540 147

Baguley 960 3.3% 6,609 145

Ardwick 960 3.3% 7,442 129

Moston 910 3.2% 6,504 140

Northenden 884 3.1% 6,609 134

Brooklands 873 3.0% 6,502 134

Whalley Range 841 2.9% 6,366 132

Levenshulme 791 2.7% 5,615 141

Ancoats and Clayton 790 2.7% 9,413 84

Woodhouse Park 778 2.7% 6,409 121

Rusholme 759 2.6% 4,647 163

Chorlton Park 741 2.6% 6,885 108

Didsbury East 716 2.5% 5,782 124

Fallowfield 656 2.3% 4,848 135

Hulme 564 2.0% 8,239 68

Old Moat 558 1.9% 5,561 100

Chorlton 548 1.9% 6,000 91

Didsbury West 466 1.6% 6,109 76

Withington 291 1.0% 5,052 58

City Centre 86 0.3% 9,861 9

Manchester Total 28,855 100.0% 218,215 132

Source: MCCFM W2016 Analysis: Public Intelligence, PRI 2017

Map 12: Estimated numbers of children aged 12 to 16 at Output Area level, MYE 2016 ONS

Young adults aged from 17 to 19 at ward level

This addition to the report has been included to bridge the gap between childhood and adulthood. This covers the years when young working age residents will be attending full-time further education such as sixth forms and colleges and as such will be classed as a dependent until they are 19 years of age or start higher education (university). Some, however, will have left the education system either partially or completely. Whether studying or not, anyone aged 17 to 19 years old is classed as economically active, but full-time students have their own sub-category within this classification. This age group will include the huge entry year student population joining the city, attracted to living near the two globally recognized universities in the city centre as well as The Royal Northern College of Music. The areas containing student accommodation are very easy to identify in Map 13, shown as the darker colours. The ranges used in this map are different from earlier maps at the upper end of the counts by output area to show this more clearly. To try to separate undergraduates from local residents, Table 17 shows the number of young adults by single year of age. Although there will be resident 18 and 19 year olds who are not higher education students included, numbers should be similar to those aged 17.

Table 17: Estimated population aged 17-19 at ward level, mid-2017

Ward Aged 17 Aged 18 Aged 19 17-19 ageband % of city's 17-19s

Ardwick 253 539 1,317 2,109 8.9%

Fallowfield 146 318 1,352 1,816 7.7%

City Centre 63 457 1,135 1,655 7.0%

Moss Side 275 385 975 1,635 6.9%

Rusholme 188 366 691 1,245 5.2%

Hulme 125 187 699 1,012 4.3%

Cheetham 322 292 293 908 3.8%

Gorton South 296 262 287 846 3.6%

Levenshulme 164 231 345 740 3.1%

Longsight 231 207 294 733 3.1%

Crumpsall 255 239 198 692 2.9%

Harpurhey 199 225 263 687 2.9%

Sharston 188 202 230 620 2.6%

Burnage 207 201 202 610 2.6%

Gorton North 187 170 235 592 2.5%

Miles Platting and Newton Heath 172 208 202 582 2.5%

Ancoats and Clayton 185 180 208 573 2.4%

Baguley 200 174 192 566 2.4%

Higher Blackley 186 188 180 554 2.3%

Whalley Range 139 171 221 531 2.2%

Bradford 167 136 208 511 2.2%

Woodhouse Park 141 159 198 498 2.1%

Northenden 171 152 166 489 2.1%

Withington 94 93 299 485 2.0%

Charlestown 175 152 149 476 2.0%

Moston 156 165 147 468 2.0%

Old Moat 118 147 194 459 1.9%

Chorlton Park 156 112 127 395 1.7%

Brooklands 139 139 107 385 1.6%

Didsbury East 105 123 140 368 1.6%

Chorlton 101 92 95 289 1.2%

Didsbury West 70 67 59 196 0.8%

Manchester 5,574 6,739 11,408 23,725 100.0%

Source: MCCFM W2016 Analysis: Public Intelligence, PRI 2018

Assuming most 17 year olds are local population rather than students, this points to Cheetham being the ward with the highest number of non-student residents of this age, followed by Moss Side, so a very similar pattern to that seen with younger ages. Once likely students are included in the numbers, City Centre ward and Fallowfield take over as having the highest populations at LSOA level.

Map 13: Estimated number of young adults aged 17 to 19 at Output Area level, MYE 2016 ONS

The highest number of 19 year olds at this geography are in Fallowfield because of the Owens Park halls of residence which houses over a thousand students, most of whom are in their first year of study10.

10 As the counts are to mid-year, most first year students will be aged 19 by June 30th, those born between July and September will still be 18 (excluding mature students and those attending university early through accelerated study).

The next 10 years

There will be increasing numbers of children coming through the school system as high numbers of very young children age on in the city, with admissions to Reception in September 2017-19 very high but stable but increasing at a faster rate again in 2020. These children are more likely to live in the north and east of the city but there are also clusters of very high density in Moss Side and Sharston.

Admissions to secondary schools have increased significantly in the academic year 2017 and will continue to do so at a much higher rate than seen in recent history. The last of the traditional cohort sizes seen in Manchester for secondary school age children will finish in mid-2019 as these children turn 16, with increasingly larger cohorts in secondary schools through to 2028. These children will be concentrated in particular areas of the city rather than widely distributed. The final series of maps, Maps 14 to 20, are taken from the current forecast from Manchester City Council’s in-house model showing the age groups covered in this report at ward level in five years and ten years from 2017. It should be noted that wards are due to change in May 2018 and while most of the ward names will stay the same, the areas covered will be very different from the ones in this report. The intention is to refresh this report at that point with past and current data re-aggregated to the new ward boundaries.

Map 14: Forecast number of children aged 0 to 4 by ward, 2022

Map 15: Forecast number of children aged 0 to 4 by ward, 2027

Map 16: Forecast number of children aged 5 to 11 by ward, 2022

Map 17: Forecast number of children aged 5 to 11 by ward, 2027

Map 18: Forecast number of children aged 12 to 16 by ward level, 2022

Map 19: Forecast number of children aged 12 to 16 by ward, 2027

Appendices

Appendix 1: Manchester estimates for 0-16 year olds, 2016 and 2017

These are comparative data between Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) 2016 mid-year estimates and Manchester City Council’s forecasting model produced by Public Intelligence (MCCFM). It also compares against ONS’ projection for the same year along with an estimate of the number of children by mid-2017 using MCCFM.

Appendix 2: Single year of age by age groups by ward, 2017

Graphs in Appendix 2 rank Manchester wards by the total estimated number of children in the age group using MCCFM.

Estimates 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Total

2016 MYE ONS 8,031 7,971 7,711 7,652 7,842 7,352 7,308 6,945 6,853 6,705 6,456 5,974 5,574 5,528 5,274 5,378 5,521 114,075

2016 MCCFM W2016 7,829 7,843 7,716 7,914 7,904 7,832 8,077 7,277 6,635 6,717 6,799 6,146 5,776 5,769 5,377 5,573 5,277 116,461

2016 SNPP14 ONS 7,944 7,653 7,589 7,535 7,769 7,223 7,149 6,792 6,861 6,672 6,395 5,880 5,534 5,414 5,194 5,258 5,399 112,261

2017 MCCFM W2016 8,070 7,852 7,872 7,759 7,952 8,023 7,945 7,941 7,247 6,712 6,782 6,812 6,148 5,808 5,907 5,401 5,590 119,822

2016 Mid-year estimates from Office for National Statistics released June 2017 (ONS), Manchester City Council Forecasting Model (MCCFM) W2016 released February 2017 (and for 2017), 2014-based Subnational Population

projections released May 2016 (ONS)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Num

be

r o

f ch

ildre

n

0-4 population by single ages in Manchester wards, 2017

0 1 2 3 4Source: MCCFM W2016 MYE 2017 Analysis: Public Intelligence, PRI 2017

(Miles Platting and Newton Heath abbreviated to Miles Platting and NH)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500N

um

ber

of

child

ren

5-11 population by single ages in Manchester wards, 2017

5 6 7 8 9 10 11Source: MCCFM W2016 MYE 2017 Analysis: Public Intelligence, PRI 2017

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Num

ber

of

child

ren

12-16 population by single ages in Manchester wards, 2017

12 13 14 15 16Source: MCCFM W2016 MYE 2017 Analysis: Public Intelligence, PRI 2017

Appendix 3: Forecast number of children by age group in Manchester wards – 2017, 2022 and 2027

MCCFM W2016

2017 2022 2027 change 2017 2022 2027 change 2017 2022 2027 change

Ancoats & Clayton 1,163 1,311 1,650 1,566 1,663 1,556 790 1,015 1,088

Ardwick 1,236 1,300 1,418 1,773 1,983 2,008 960 1,175 1,325

Baguley 1,237 1,186 1,088 1,729 1,832 1,747 960 1,219 1,349

Bradford 1,573 1,547 1,371 1,869 2,214 2,177 1,062 1,262 1,614

Brooklands 1,124 1,037 954 1,389 1,214 1,120 873 973 807

Burnage 1,241 1,176 1,012 1,782 1,912 1,829 1,016 1,238 1,376

Charlestown 1,192 1,266 1,099 1,616 1,698 1,790 963 1,133 1,212

Cheetham 2,322 2,403 2,455 3,242 3,535 3,712 1,885 2,456 2,674

Chorlton 882 821 834 1,062 983 1,058 548 639 581

Chorlton Park 1,150 1,253 1,029 1,209 1,464 1,807 741 807 950

City Centre 183 242 387 162 117 193 86 111 83

Crumpsall 1,654 1,584 1,516 2,022 2,152 2,159 1,264 1,497 1,576

Didsbury East 919 932 813 1,250 1,275 1,340 716 904 885

Didsbury West 650 649 632 846 844 740 466 616 590

Fallowfield 777 882 946 1,124 1,271 1,383 656 803 940

Gorton North 1,706 1,617 1,499 2,183 2,587 2,544 1,063 1,436 1,764

Gorton South 2,218 2,289 2,423 2,811 3,192 3,373 1,651 1,971 2,290

Harpurhey 1,887 1,781 1,700 2,661 3,006 2,949 1,231 1,866 2,342

Higher Blackley 1,158 1,179 1,050 1,664 1,713 1,734 980 1,207 1,273

Hulme 964 1,095 1,046 992 1,027 1,278 564 799 786

Levenshulme 1,072 1,143 1,134 1,353 1,515 1,609 791 931 1,095

Longsight 1,552 1,778 1,874 2,076 2,223 2,485 1,146 1,552 1,663

Miles Platting & NH 1,300 1,308 1,326 1,820 1,985 2,178 985 1,218 1,305

Moss Side 1,975 2,139 2,309 2,618 2,853 2,985 1,388 1,909 2,142

Moston 1,122 1,074 1,004 1,505 1,508 1,452 910 1,005 1,018

Northenden 1,235 1,139 978 1,597 1,753 1,662 884 1,091 1,237

Old Moat 782 893 861 1,030 1,143 1,277 558 722 821

Rusholme 935 1,092 1,215 1,237 1,462 1,652 759 949 1,144

Sharston 1,484 1,431 1,308 1,915 2,074 2,050 1,049 1,313 1,439

Whalley Range 1,138 1,178 1,044 1,269 1,453 1,527 841 827 970

Withington 532 537 556 686 864 905 291 480 622

Woodhouse Park 1,141 1,034 842 1,405 1,592 1,472 778 910 1,101

Manchester 39,504 40,296 39,373 51,463 56,107 57,751 28,855 36,034 40,062

Ages 0 to 4 Ages 5 to 11 Ages 12 to 16

Appendix 4: Definitions

Household

A household is defined as:

• one person living alone, or

• a group of people (not necessarily related) living at the same address who share cooking facilities and share a living room or sitting room or dining area.

This includes:

• sheltered accommodation units in an establishment where 50 per cent or more have their own kitchens (irrespective of whether there are other communal facilities)

• all people living in caravans on any type of site that is their usual residence. This will include anyone who has no other usual residence elsewhere in the UK.

A household must contain at least one person whose place of usual residence is at the address. A group of short-term residents living together is not classified as a household, and neither is a group of people at an address where only visitors are staying.

Household size

The size of a household is equal to the number of usual residents in the household. Visitors staying at an address do not contribute to that household’s size because they are counted in the household of their place of usual residence.

Household size is only applicable to household spaces with at least one usual resident (a household space is the accommodation used or available for use by an individual household).

Household size in this report has referred to the number of children rather than all people living in a household.

Family

A family is defined as a group of people who are either:

• a married, same-sex civil partnership, or cohabiting couple, with or without child(ren)

• a lone parent with child(ren)

• a married, same-sex civil partnership, or cohabiting couple with grandchild(ren) but with no children present from the intervening generation

• a single grandparent with grandchild(ren) but no children present from the intervening generation

Children in couple families need not belong to both members of the couple

For single or couple grandparents with grandchildren present, the children of the grandparent(s) may also be present if they are not parents or grandparents of the youngest generation present.

Dependent child

A dependent child is a person aged 0 – 15 in a household (whether or not in a family) or aged 16 – 18 in full-time education and living in a family with his or her parent(s). It does not include any children who have a spouse, partner or child living in the household.