国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission

CHINA 2050 HIGH RENEWABLE

ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO

AND RODAMAP STUDY

CHINA NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY CENTER

ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF NDRC

April 20, 2015

Partnership

Core Working Group:

Technical Support:

High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario

Economic Dreams

Ecological Dreams

生态文明是人类文明的重要标志

To get rid of fossil fuels is our global development trend. Ecological civilization is the moral high ground of human development.

THE ACHIEVEMENT of “CHINA 2050 HIGH RE

PENETRATION SCENARIO” IS the KEY FACTOR for

OUR “BEAUTIFUL CHINA”

THE ACHIEVEMENT of “CHINA 2050 HIGH RE

PENETRATION SCENARIO” IS VISION AND

CONSENSUS OF THE WHOLE SOCIETY

Energy Strategy—Low Carbon and Green Electricity for Future

Social Economic—Middle Level of Developed Country

Ecological Environment—Blue Air and Green Water

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

GDP：4b CNY

GDP：28.2b CNY，7 times the GDP in 2010

2010

2013

2020

2030

2050

ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT

CO2 Emissions (b tons)

6.77.25

3.02

2010 2011 2050

20101990

3.99t4.44t

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

SO2 NOx PM10 PM2.5 AtmoHg

China USA EU

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2050

The emission trends of various main air pollutants

SO2

10k tons

NOx smoke and dust

10k tons

Below the level of emissions in 1980

Pollutant Emissions

3b tons of annual CO2 emissions, 2.17 tons of emissions per capita

CO2 Emissions

The level of global average emissions 1.4b tons in 2050,

3.2b tons in 2010

Power sector emissions

MAIN CALCULATED RESULTS for HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION in 2050

The rate of electrification to be higher than 60% in end-use energy consumption

The proportion of non-fossil energy generation to be higher than 91%

3.4billion tce of primary energy supply , and 3.2billion tce of end-use energy consumption

3X

22%

62%

2010 2050

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000 Twh

2400GW of wind capacity , 2600GW of solar power capacity , and 9660TWh of total annual power generation

2010 2050

2.7b

3.4b

HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO: PARTHWAY

TEN CONLUSIONS OR TEN THINKS？

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Coal Oil Nature Gas

Nuclear Hydro Wind

Biomass Bio fuel Solar Power

SWH & Geothermal RE Share

Primary Energy Supply(billion tce, thermal equivalent ）

BY 2050, RENEWABLE ENERGY COULD MEET MORE

THAN 60% OF PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION WILL PROMOTE FOSSIL ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND CARBON EMISSIONS TO PEAK BY 2025

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Units: million tce

7.8 8.5

9.2 9.2

8.2

6.5

5.3

4.1

3.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Reference

High penetration

Units : billion tons

Metal smelting

Services Residents Transport Argriculture

Electricity Chemical Manufacturing Coke

RENEWABLE POWER IS THE ESSENTIAL

REPLACEMENT FOR FOSSIL ENERY

22% 23%

29%

41%

53%

67%

78%

84%86%

28%

34%

46%

57%

71%

82%

88%91%

TWh

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

COAL NAT_GAS FUELOIL NUCLEAR Hydro

WIND SOLAR MUNI_WASTE BIOGAS STRAW

WOOD GEOTHERMAL WAVE RE share Non-fossil energy Share

WIND POWER AND SOLAR POWER WILL BECOME

IMPORTANT PILLARS OF THE FUTURE POWER

SUPPLY

Development Phase Diagram of Wind and Solar power in High Penetration Scenario

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

20112013201520172019202120232025202720292031203320352037203920412043204520472049

Wind PV&CSP

2020,307GW

2020,174GW

2040, 2204GW

2040, 2056GW

HIGHER ELECTRIFICATION RATE BRING

HUMAN SOCIETY INTO MORE HIGHER LEVEL

OF CIVILIZATION FORMATION

26%

33%

37%

41%

47%

51%

54%

59%

62%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Coal Oilproducts

Nature Gas

Electricityconsumption

Bio fuel SWHGeo thermal

Electrification share

Units: billion tce

TRANSFORM THE ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION

NETWORK TO A PLARTFORM FOR OPTIMIZING

RESCOURES ALLOCATION

Inter-provincial Transmission Capacity Demand in High Penetration Scenario（GW）

国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission

TECHNOLOGICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL INNOVATION IS THE FOUNDATION BUILA A HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION POWER SYSTEM

REThermal

power

Hydro

power

Wind

power

PV

Power System

Flexibility

Wireless

charging

储能电站

Forecast

Flexible

generation

Driverless

EV

EV

Driverless EV

Charging

Station

Mobile Station

Bidding at power market

Coordinate EVs with smart vehicle network, driverless cars and wireless charging technology

Business model: charging and discharging services, and shared EV services

Recycle Battery，provide energy storage service to Grid

Integration OperatorDemand

Response

Ancillary

Services

Power

Generation

Regulation

Output

Regulation

Smart

metering

Virtual data

center

Power Market

BUILDING A HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION POWER SYSTEM AT A SMALL OR NON-INCREMENTAL COST

kWh Cost Development Trend in High Penetration Scenario

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Transmission Cost 0.180 0.182 0.183 0.185 0.190 0.199 0.213 0.230 0.250

Start-up costs 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.005 0.005

Fuel Cost 0.276 0.259 0.262 0.233 0.186 0.143 0.111 0.094 0.080

Variable O&M 0.022 0.021 0.019 0.016 0.014 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.010

Fixed O&M 0.023 0.028 0.029 0.035 0.040 0.044 0.050 0.053 0.054

Capital Cost 0.244 0.212 0.196 0.212 0.240 0.266 0.285 0.285 0.287

0.7460.701 0.689 0.683 0.672 0.666 0.674 0.678 0.685

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

0.800

Yuan/KWh

AS A NEW ECONOMIC GROWTH POINT, RE CAN

SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE DEVELOPMENT QUALITY

OF OVERALL ECONOMY

Contribution of RE and related industries to GDP

2.5%

1.6%

2.9%

0.9%

6.2%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

2010 2020 2030 2050

Growth of Employment in RE and related industries （unit: 10000）

Wind Solar EV Other RE

125

65 4615 13

481

377

8136

250

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Solar Wind Hydro Biomass Others

2015

2050

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Energy Sector Employment in 2010（unit: 1000）

Coal Oil Gas Electricity RE Nuclear R&D

HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION WILL HELP BRING BACK CLEAR WATER AND BLUE SKIES

2050 China's SO2 and NOX Emission in High Penetration Scenario

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

China USA EU China Share of Global

Units: billion tons

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

1990 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

China SO2 Emission High Penetration Scenario

China Nox Emission High Penetration Scenario

Units: million tons

2050 China's CO2 Emission in the Global Contrast in High Penetration Scenario

Note: China's data after 2010 is scenario data

And data of other countries is trend prediction

Data from IEA ETP 2014

2050 HIGH PENETRATION SCENARIO: PATHWAY

Largest Challenge:Variability of Renewables！

Achieve Higher-level Dynamic Stability Through Changes: Internet +

Intelligence

CommInternet

Energy Internet

Internet of Things

Flexibility

Supply SideChanges

Demand SideAlso

Changes

Stability？Reliability

？

System with High RE Penetration Will Be a Reliable Power System

Variable demand Variable generation

Smart Control and real-time price

Demand side flexibility

Flexible generation units

Contribution of EV’s Flexibility to the Power System

Vehicle Technology

Charging Mode Operation Features

EV Charging and Discharging Load

EV

Plug-in

Fuel Battery

Low Voltage AC

DC

Changeable Battery

Frequency of Charging

Miles

TimeWireless Charging

Types and Numbers

Passenger V

Bus/Business/Delivery

Trucks

Daily miles Integration Charging Load Curves Charging control and Storage

New Business model of EV Will Change the Concept of Power Dispatch

退役电池回收

EV Integration Operator

Mobile Stations

Fixed Stations

流动站点

Wireless Charging

EV Business Model and Integrated Operation of Power System

Wireless Charging

Energy Storage of EVCase Study for 2030 in Beijing

880GW Flexible Coal Will Provide Support for Stable and Reliable Operation of the

Power System in 2050

Hourly Dispatch on a Typical Day in High Penetration Scenario

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

T001 T002 T003 T004 T005 T006 T007 T008 T009 T010 T011 T012 T013 T014 T015 T016 T017 T018 T019 T020 T021 T022 T023 T024

NUCLEAR COAL Hydro NAT_GAS WIND

WOOD SOLAR GEOTHERMAL BIOGAS STRAW

MUNI_WASTE HEAT WAVE FUELOIL PUMPED_HYDRO

ACTION PLAN FOR HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION

BUILDING HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION FUTURE WILL BRING “NON-ZERO-SUM”RESULTS

• Market Oriented

• Economically Viable

• Consider both long term and near term

• Soft and Hard Supports

• Benefit the Whole Society

KEY ELEMENTS of THE ACTION PLANS

20202015 2030 2040 2050

Technology Revolution

Extract potential of grid, strengthen infrastructure of provincial distribution network, especially 500KV interconnection lines for large wind and solar bases

EV Industrialized，EV become pillar of vehicle industry or even of the national economy by 2025

Enter the era of Energy Internet by 2025: efficiently integrate EV, smart network, and Demand Response; annual installation of wind and solar power each hit 100GW

，Power Sector Reform ongoing in parallel with 13th FYP implementation; Building a competitive power market in China within 10 years

Reform of State Owned Enterprises：Improve Market Mechanism and break monopoly

Energy transformation of Germany（Learn and Cooperate）、Denmark concepts to phase out fossil energyGlobal energy governance is a trend，and conformed with Pareto Standard. Only cooperation will lead to win-win!

Technology Innovation: Significantly increase electrification rate in end-use consumptions, flexible coal（target: 1000 hours）, modernized manufacture and 3-Networks Integration

Institutional Reform

International Cooperation

Do not ever think about that we can escape, our every

each step determine the final outcome, our foot steps

are moving towards the end of own chosen target.

──Milan Kundera