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Population of China to 2050: Hi, Mid and Lo scenariosSource: UN Statistics Division, 2001
bill
ion
s (l
og
sca
le)
Difference in forecasts: 200-400 millionyear
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
.5
1
2
0.6
0.7
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.27
1.47 mid 1.461.54
hi1.69
1.39 lo1.24
China: 3 population projections to 2050China: 3 population projections to 2050
1.71.7
1.21.2
2020thth century China’s demographic century China’s demographic transformationtransformation
• The Great Famine, 1959-61: 30 million deaths The Great Famine, 1959-61: 30 million deaths and 30 million lost birthsand 30 million lost births
• The Demographic transition, The Demographic transition, • The One child policy, female infanticide and The One child policy, female infanticide and
the stabilization or decline of China’s the stabilization or decline of China’s populationpopulation
2020thth century China: century China:reading history from a population pyramidreading history from a population pyramid
(Judith Banister, (Judith Banister, China’s Changing China’s Changing PopulationPopulation (1987) (1987)
• The population pyramid: a record of birth, The population pyramid: a record of birth, death, and migration over many decadesdeath, and migration over many decades
• 2020thth century China: a “quasi-stable century China: a “quasi-stable population” (fairly constant birth rates with population” (fairly constant birth rates with fluctuating death rates) impacted by war and fluctuating death rates) impacted by war and famine.famine.
Wide base = high fertilityWide base = high fertility
Narrow base = low fertilityNarrow base = low fertility
Corseted base = declining Corseted base = declining populationpopulation
JapanJapan1995:1995:
70 70 years years
of pop. of pop. historyhistory
China:China:Great Great faminefamine1958-1958-19601960
2020thth century China: century China:reading history from a population pyramidreading history from a population pyramid
• Stable, “natural” fertility—lower than in the Stable, “natural” fertility—lower than in the west: “controlled” (Lee & Wang) or west: “controlled” (Lee & Wang) or uncontrolled (Coale, Banister and Barclay)?uncontrolled (Coale, Banister and Barclay)?
• Effects of war and famine on fertilityEffects of war and famine on fertility• Mortality remained high until 1950sMortality remained high until 1950s• The Great famine of 1959-1961: 30 million The Great famine of 1959-1961: 30 million
deaths and 30 million lost birthsdeaths and 30 million lost births
Controlled to uncontrolled (Lee/Wang, Controlled to uncontrolled (Lee/Wang, Fig. 7.4) Fig. 7.4)
or “naturally” lower?or “naturally” lower?
Lee & Wang’s Chinese Lee & Wang’s Chinese demographic transitiondemographic transition
Western Europe’s Western Europe’s demographic transitiondemographic transition
Relatively stable fertility to 1950Fertility transition occurred very rapidly
Tota
l Fe
rtili
ty R
ate
China: Total fertility rateyear
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
0
2
4
6
8
““Stable” fertility –1940sStable” fertility –1940sRising, 1947-1957Rising, 1947-1957
Secular decline, 1970-1980sSecular decline, 1970-1980s
Total Total fertility fertility
rate (Lee rate (Lee and and
Wang, Wang, Table 6.1)Table 6.1)
Age specific fertility rates reveals the Age specific fertility rates reveals the transition to controlled fertilitytransition to controlled fertility
Judith Banister, Judith Banister, China’s changing PopulationChina’s changing Population (Stanford, 1987) (Stanford, 1987)
Crude rates show the effects of the Crude rates show the effects of the Great Leap Forward FamineGreat Leap Forward Famine
Effects of the Great Leap Forward Effects of the Great Leap Forward Famine on Total Fertility RateFamine on Total Fertility Rate
Controlled to uncontrolled (Lee/Wang, Controlled to uncontrolled (Lee/Wang, Fig. 7.4) Fig. 7.4)
or “naturally” lower?or “naturally” lower?
Lee & Wang’s Chinese Lee & Wang’s Chinese demographic transitiondemographic transition
Western Europe’s Western Europe’s demographic transitiondemographic transition
Rising female age at marriage, 1950-Rising female age at marriage, 1950-81, by rural/urban residence81, by rural/urban residence
China: population pyramid, 2000China: population pyramid, 2000Narrow base shows fertility declineNarrow base shows fertility decline
Figure 3. China, Sex Ratios of Children by Age, Censuses of 1982 - 2000(Males per hundred females)
100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Age at Census Date
Sex
Rat
io a
s E
num
erat
ed
1982 Census
1990 Census
1995 Census
2000 Census
Sex ratio by age and CensusSex ratio by age and Census
Figure 4. China, Sex Ratio at Birth by Parity, 1990 and 2000 Censuses
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
Parity 1 Parity 2 Parity 3 Parity 4 Parity 5 &above
Parity
Sex
Rat
io a
t Bir
th
1989-1990
1999-2000
Death rate measureDeath rate measure 19811981 19901990 19951995 1999-20001999-2000
Male IMR, reported dataMale IMR, reported data 38.1238.12 28.2928.29 27.3727.37 21.9821.98
Female IMR, reported dataFemale IMR, reported data 36.1236.12 32.7732.77 36.2936.29 30.9830.98
Normal female IMRNormal female IMR 31.7731.77 23.5823.58 22.8122.81 18.3218.32
Absolute excess female Absolute excess female IMRIMR
4.354.35 9.199.19 13.4813.48 12.6612.66
Percent excess female IMRPercent excess female IMR 12%12% 28%28% 37%37% 41%41%
Excess Female Infant Mortality, 1981-2000Excess Female Infant Mortality, 1981-2000(infant deaths per 1,000 live births)(infant deaths per 1,000 live births)
1982: China, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14 1982: China, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14
1990: China, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14 1990: China, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14
1995: China, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14 1995: China, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14
2000: China, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14 2000: China, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14
What causes the shortage of girls in China?What causes the shortage of girls in China?
1.1. Poverty? No, some of China’s poorest areas have no Poverty? No, some of China’s poorest areas have no missing girl problem. But economic considerations matter.missing girl problem. But economic considerations matter.
2.2. Political or economic system? No, compare international.Political or economic system? No, compare international.3.3. Illiteracy, low educational level? No, but ideas can matter.Illiteracy, low educational level? No, but ideas can matter.4.4. Han Chinese culture? YES. Also a few minority Han Chinese culture? YES. Also a few minority
nationality cultures. But not most, not Muslim cultures.nationality cultures. But not most, not Muslim cultures.5.5. Low fertility? YES. Combined with son preference.Low fertility? YES. Combined with son preference.6.6. One-child policy? Maybe. Seems to worsen excess female One-child policy? Maybe. Seems to worsen excess female
infant mortality. Perhaps shortage of girls is more severe infant mortality. Perhaps shortage of girls is more severe than without the one-child policy. than without the one-child policy.
Current Policies to Combat Son Preference
• Laws giving girls and women equal rights with males.Laws giving girls and women equal rights with males.
• Propaganda and consciousness-raising slogans about the Propaganda and consciousness-raising slogans about the equal value and contributions of females and males.equal value and contributions of females and males.
• Laws outlawing infanticide, prenatal sex identification, Laws outlawing infanticide, prenatal sex identification, and sex-selective abortion.and sex-selective abortion.
• Policies in most provinces allowing rural couples to have Policies in most provinces allowing rural couples to have two children, or a second child if the first is a girl.two children, or a second child if the first is a girl.
• Some localities have preferential policies for couples with Some localities have preferential policies for couples with daughters but no son, for example modest social security daughters but no son, for example modest social security guarantees for the parents.guarantees for the parents.
2025: Sex ratio imbalance is likely to become less extremeSource: US Census Bureau, 2001
ma
les
pe
r 1
00
fem
ale
s
Cohort of 1980-2000 marked by extremes will persistage
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
80
90
100
110
120
2000
2000
2025
2025
China Sex Ratio in 2000 & 2025: comparedChina Sex Ratio in 2000 & 2025: compared
Population of China to 2050: Hi, Mid and Lo scenariosSource: UN Statistics Division, 2001
bill
ion
s (l
og
sca
le)
Difference in forecasts: 200-400 millionyear
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
.5
1
2
0.6
0.7
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.27
1.47 mid 1.461.54
hi1.69
1.39 lo1.24
China: 3 population projections to 2050China: 3 population projections to 2050
1.71.7
1.21.2