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Aon HewittRetirement and Investment
Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.
MSCI’s Announcement to Add China A-Shares to its Emerging Markets IndexLooking Beyond the Tiny Percentage
August 2017
Aon Hewitt MSCI's Announcement to Add China A-Shares to its Emerging Markets Index 2
Introduction
On June 20, 2017, MSCI announced that it will add 222 China A Large Cap shares to the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index. When the inclusion is officially launched in June 2018, China A Large Cap shares are expected to account for about 0.73% of the MSCI EM Index. As the latest note in a series of three1 on the globalization of China’s financial markets, this paper explains the background of the index change, estimates future changes in the Index composition, and also points out the potential implications on institutional investors if China A-Shares claim 17% or more in the MSCI EM Index.
We beleive:
• In the near term, the announcement has more of a
symbolic meaning than actual impact.
• However, this tiny index change could potentially open
up a huge opportunity in the future.
• Further inclusion of A-Shares could happen much sooner
than the initial review process.
• The potential influx of institutional money could reach at
least 5.3% of the value of all A-Shares.
• Institutional investors should understand the implications
and adjust accordingly.
1 Aon research: Onshore Chinese Bonds Enter the Global Bond Universe, by Lucinda Downing Aon research: All Aboard the Through Train, China A-Shares, by James Jackson
Aon Hewitt MSCI's Announcement to Add China A-Shares to its Emerging Markets Index 3
China A-Shares, a big market but a tiny weight in the MSCI EM index
Being the second largest economy in the world, China has expanded its equity markets over
the past three decades to a size only ranked after the U.S. by market capitalization (Figure 1).
2 Aon research: All Aboard the Through Train, China A-Shares, by James Jackson
However, international investors’ participation in China’s
equity markets has not been proportionate to its share
of the world economy and of the global capital market,
primarily due to the tight control of foreign ownership and
access by Chinese authorities. Based on listing locations and
accessibility to different groups of investors, China’s equity
market is unique in its regulation and structured with multiple
classes of shares such as A, B, and H shares, as well as Red
and P chips and overseas listings. “A-Shares” refers to stocks
of those companies incorporated in China, listed in China,
and traded only in Renminbi (RMB) in either the Shanghai
or Shenzhen stock exchange. Please refer to Aon research All
Aboard the Through Train, China A-Shares, by James Jackson for
a detailed introduction to the China A-Shares market2.
Figure 1: Top equity markets by market capitalization ($B) as 3/31/2017
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
U.S (N
YSE E
uronex
t)
U.S (N
asdaq
)
Japan
(Jap
an Ex
chan
ge Gro
up)
China (Sh
anghai)
UK (London St
ock Ex
chan
ge Gro
up)
Euro
pe (NYS
E Euro
next)
Hong Kong
China (Sh
enzh
en)
China (Toro
nto)
India (B
ombay
)
Germ
any (
Deutsc
he Börse
)
Switz
erlan
dKore
a
Australi
a
Norther
n Euro
pe (NASD
AQ Nord
ic Ex
chan
ge)
NYSE&
Nasdaq
Com
bined
Shan
ghai & Sh
enzh
en C
ombined
Shan
ghai, Sh
enzh
en &
Hong Kong C
ombined
Source: World Federation of Exchanges and Bloomberg
Aon Hewitt MSCI's Announcement to Add China A-Shares to its Emerging Markets Index 4
The table below shows a comparison of the multiple classes of shares:
Among the multiple share classes—such as A, B, and H shares,
as well as Red and P chips and overseas listings—A-Shares
count for the lion’s share of China’s equities listed in Shanghai
and Shenzhen. Out of more than 4,500 Chinese companies
listed, 3,277 are A-Shares but are currently not included in the
MSCI China Index universe (Table 2).
Although China already comprises 28% of the MSCI EM Index
as of May 31, 2017, the MSCI China sub-index includes only
securities accessible to foreign investors such as B-Shares,
H-Shares, Red chips, P chips, and overseas listings (Figure 2):
A-Shares B-Shares H-Shares Red Chips P ChipsOverseas Listings
Incorporation Location China China China Outside of
China Outside of
China China
Listing Location China China Hong Kong Hong Kong Hong Kong U.S./Singapore
Trading Currency RMB USD/HKD HKD HKD HKD USD/SGD
Availability to Foreign Investors
Only under QFII, RQFII, and Stock Connect
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Hong Kong Shanghai Shenzhen Nasdaq NYSE
Main board Chi-Next A-Shares B-Shares A-Shares B-Shares
Overseas listings*
Overseas listings*
No. of listed companies 1,746 287 1,294 51 1,983 49 127 22
No. of listed H-Shares 222 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
No. of listed red chips 152 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
No. of listed P Chips* 614 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
No. of listed securities 10,003 288 1,294 51 1,983 49 127 22
Market capitalisation (billion USD) $3,623 $34 $4,489 $15 $3,309 $12 $1,056 $71
Floating market capitalisation (billion USD) N/A N/A $3,764 $15 $2,304 $12 N/A N/A
Total market turnover (million USD) $10,006 – $24,147 – $31,058 – N/A N/A
Table 1: Comparison of multiple classes of shares
Table 2: Comparison of A-Shares listings in onshore China markets with other China listings
Source: HKEX, SSE
Source: HKEX, NYSE, NASDAQ Exchange rate used: 1 USD = 7.80 HKD, 1USD = 6.78 RMB *As of 5/31/2017
Aon Hewitt MSCI's Announcement to Add China A-Shares to its Emerging Markets Index 5
According to MSCI, its initial step to include A-Shares in its
Emerging Markets indices will be to add 222 Large Cap stocks
in a two-phased process beginning in June 2018. By then,
China A-Shares are expected to count for only 0.1% of the
MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) Index, 0.73% of the
MSCI EM Index, 0.83% of the MSCI Asia ex Japan Index, and
2.5% of the MSCI China Index (Figures 3). China A-Shares
have been on MSCI’s review list since 2013. When the initial
inclusion weight is compared to the size of the entire China
A-Shares market, 0.73% is indeed a baby step that MSCI
made. MSCI would not have even included such a tiny weight
if it were not for a decade-long effort by China to open up
its capital markets. It has been a long journey for both China
and MSCI to make this change happen, and there is still a lot
more room for China to open its domestic equity markets to
international investors, and thus MSCI, to fully integrate China
into global equity markets.
Figure 2: Comparison of MSCI China Index composition before and after the initial inclusion
Figure 3: Index country weight distribution
Source: MSCI
Source: MSCI, as of 5/31/2017
MSCI China Index Composition as of 6/19/2017
Expected MSCI China IndexComposition by June 2018
A-Shares2.50%B-Shares
0.3%
H-Shares34%
Red Chips15%
P Chips24.2%
Overseas25.3%
B-Shares0.3%
H-Shares34%
Red Chips15%
P Chips24.2%
Overseas25.3%
MSCI ACWI Index MSCI EM Index
United States52.6%
Japan7.7%
United Kingdom6%
France6%
Germany3.2%
China3.1%
Canada3%
Switzerland3%
Australia2.3%
Korea1.7% Rest
14%
China27.7%
South Korea27.7%
Taiwan12.2%
India8.8%
Brazil6.9%
Other28.9%
Aon Hewitt MSCI's Announcement to Add China A-Shares to its Emerging Markets Index 6
Background of the baby step
China’s A-Shares market has not been easy for foreign
investors to access. They could only gain access to China’s
A-Shares market through strictly controlled quota schemes—
such as the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII)
scheme and the Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional
Investor (RQFII) program—and Stock Connect, the latest
platform since 2014. The Stock Connect program allowed
foreign investors to access A-Shares traded in the Shanghai
or Shenzhen stock exchange via the Hong Kong stock
exchange, though with some restrictions such as daily trading
volume.3 Embracing foreign capital in its domestic equity
market was a slow and extremely cautious process for China.
The process for MSCI to include China A-Shares in its index
series has also been very slow. Among MSCI Global Market
Accessibility criteria, “openness to foreign ownership” and
“ease of capital inflows/outflows” are among the major
obstacles to MSCI not including China A-Shares in the
EM Index after three annual reviews prior to 2017. China has
gradually relaxed its QFII scheme and RQFII program since
2012. MSCI and the institutional investment community
welcomed this liberalization of China’s domestic equity
market and applauded when China launched the Shanghai-
Hong Kong and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect
program since 2014. After China’s onshore stock market
crisis in the summer of 2015, Chinese authorities fought hard
to stop capital outflow as concerns over slower economic
growth and Renminbi devaluation drove massive capital flight
overseas. China’s foreign currency reserves dropped below
$3 trillion from as high as $4 trillion (Figure 4).
3 Aon research: All Aboard the Through Train, China A-Shares, by James Jackson4 Aon research: Onshore Chinese Bonds Enter the Global Bond Universe, by Lucinda Downing
While keeping tight hands on capital outflows by Chinese
residents and business entities, Chinese authorities also
welcomed foreign capital inflows in efforts to slow the decline
of its foreign currency reserve. On the other hand, the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that Renminbi
(RMB) is included in the basket of Special Drawing Rights
(SDR), elevating RMB in the global reserve currency system
since October 2016. While RMB’s globalization makes solid
progress, we expect China’s onshore equity and debt markets4
to be more open to international investors. Following China’s
onshore bonds inclusion in the Bloomberg and Citigroup
local bond indices since early 2016, it is widely expected that
the global equity market index will embrace China’s onshore
stocks as well.
Figure 4: Historical trend of China’s foreign currency reserve
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Dec 99
Oct 00
Aug 01Jun 02
Apr 03
Feb 04
Dec 04
Oct 05
Aug 06Jun 07
Apr 08
Feb 09
Dec 09
Oct 10
Aug 11Jun 12
Apr 13
Feb 14
Dec 14
Oct 15
Aug 16
$ tr
illio
ns
Source: SAFE
Aon Hewitt MSCI's Announcement to Add China A-Shares to its Emerging Markets Index 7
5 A multiplication factor ranging from 0% to 100% that MSCI uses to adjust the weight of constituents’ stocks
When A-Shares are fully included
As MSCI stated, “Further inclusion of China A-Shares could
potentially include an increase of the currently announced 5%
inclusion factor5 as well as the addition of China A Mid Cap
shares” depending on “how China’s A Shares market aligns
with international market accessibility standards.” MSCI has
the discretion to increase the initial 222 Large Cap A-Shares
names only available through Stock Connect to a much larger
pool. China’s country weight could potentially increase from
28% currently in the MSCI EM Index to as much as 41% in the
future, according to MSCI (Figure 5). However, such a leap is
primarily dependent on the willingness of China to continue to
open and transform its domestic equity market.
Given China’s ambition to solidify its global leadership,
further including foreign capital in its domestic equity market
is likely in the interest of China. We expect future inclusion
of more China A-Shares in the global equity market index to
accelerate. Along with this process, institutional investors need
to incorporate the index composition changes in investment
policy setting, equity research, manager selection, and
operations management. The potential magnitude of the
A-Shares weight change could be unprecedented compared to
any historical development in the MSCI EM Index.
Figure 5: Evolving MSCI EM Index composition
China HK Listed20.8%
China B andOverseas7.1%
Current MSCI EM Index MSCI EM with intial A-Shares
MSCI EM with 100% A-Shares
Korea15.6%
Taiwan12.3%
India8.9%
ASEAN8.2%
South Africa6.7%
Brazil6.6%
Mexico3.7%
Russia3.2%
Others7.0%
China HK Listed21.5%
China B and Overseas7.1%
Korea15.3%
Taiwan12.1%
India8.8%
ASEAN8.1%
South Africa6.5%
Brazil6.5%
Mexico3.6%
Russia3.1%
Others6.9%
China A-Shares0.7%
China HK Listed18.0%
China B and Overseas5.9%
Korea12.8%
Taiwan10.1%
India7.3%
ASEAN6.7%
South Africa5.5%
Brazil5.4%
Mexico3.0%
Russia2.6%
Others5.8%
China A-Shares16.9%
Source: MSCI
Aon Hewitt MSCI's Announcement to Add China A-Shares to its Emerging Markets Index 8
Implications
If China’s country weight claims 41% in the EM Index, and
A-Shares alone count for 17%, as MSCI has illustrated as
a future possibility, investors will need to incorporate the
A-Shares market risk/return profile in their capital market
assumptions for Emerging Markets Equity. When A-Shares
are at a full inclusion stage, we believe investors need to
re-evaluate the capability of their broad mandate managers
in Emerging Markets or Asia markets and be ready to deploy
specialist managers if necessary. Whether adopting a passive
or active strategy, investors will have to assess their prior
experience and exposure and identify available resources.
Certain style and factor investment managers will need to
calibrate their factor investing approaches for some unique
characteristics of A-Shares. On the operational front, investors
need to embrace different trading and settlement rules.
1. Capital market assumptions Historically, investors’ base of A-Shares has been dominated
by retail investors and the historical performance was primarily
driven by speculation. When measured by the China Securities
Index (CSI) 300 Index6, Large Cap A-Shares performed
differently from the MSCI China Index, as illustrated below
in Figure 6 and Table 3.
Figure 6: Historical growth comparison
1.1.2005
8.1.2005
3.1.2006
10.1.2006
5.1.2007
12.1.2007
7.1.2008
2.1.2009
9.1.2009
4.1.2010
11.1.2010
6.1.2011
1.12012
8.1.2012
3.1.2013
10.1.2013
5.1.2014
12.1.2014
7.1.2015
9.1.2016
0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2.1.2016
4.1.2017
Source: MSCI
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg
As of 6/30/2017Annualized Return Annualized Volatility
MSCI China Index CSI 300 Index MSCI China Index CSI 300 Index
1 Year 32.3% 18.8% 11.9% 11.9%
3 Years 8.3% 21.6% 21.2% 29.8%
5 Years 9.2% 10.6% 18.5% 26.8%
10 Years 4.2% 1.4% 27.1% 31.8%
Table 3: Comparison of annualized historical return and risk
Q MSCI China Q CSI 300
6 The CSI 300 Index consists of the 300 largest and most liquid A-Shares stocks traded in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges
Aon Hewitt MSCI's Announcement to Add China A-Shares to its Emerging Markets Index 9
When A-Shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen are largely open
to international investors, an influx of institutional money and
trading patterns could change the returns and risk profile
of A-Shares. Investors trying to develop a fair assumption of
expected return and risk could take only limited reference from
the historical performance. Though Chinese authorities have
relaxed their stock suspension rules after the 2015 onshore
stock market crisis, stock suspension remains a unique factor
that needs to be considered.
2. Passive vs. active considerationsAsset owners need to evaluate whether a passive or active
strategy is the best approach to gain exposure. We believe
investors without prior exposure or experience with A Shares
are better off to adopt a passive strategy. Nevertheless, the
challenge is then shifted to managers and custodian banks,
which need to be ready to include 2,000+ companies.
Investors already embracing an active strategy in their
Emerging Markets Equity mandate need to realize that current
active Emerging Markets managers will be challenged with a
far broader research base, yet presented with opportunities of
alpha generation. Asset owners need to check whether their
equity fund managers have sufficient resources to develop
insights around the A-Shares market.
3. Broader mandate or specialist managerWe still believe a broader mandate of Emerging Markets and
ACWI Asia would be appropriate at the initial stage of MSCI
EM Index inclusion. However, at a full inclusion stage, investors
must determine whether a broader mandate manager
has sufficient capability to cover the entire China market.
Otherwise, a specialist manager should be considered. By
that time, we suspect that MSCI might roll out the Emerging
Markets ex China Index to pair with the China Index so
that investors have sufficient flexibility to deploy different
strategies. We encourage investors to review and evaluate
their current Global Equity and Emerging Markets managers in
the context of the evolving landscape.
4. Calibration of style and factor investment approach
We would like to point out some unique China A-Shares
market characteristics for investors who are used to mature
markets in the U.S. and Europe. For example, many state-
owned enterprises (SOEs) are traded at relatively low price-
to-earnings (P/E) ratios compared to the broader A-Shares. We
suggest that traditional value investors resist comparing SOEs
to other value stocks on the same platform. Due to the unique
stock suspension rule in Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges,
historical volatility might not accurately reflect a stock’s real
risk level. Low-volatility managers will need to calibrate their
approach to count in the impact of stock suspensions. High
turnover of fund managers7 is common in China. Therefore,
short track records of many funds in A-Shares are another
reality for investors relying on back testing.
5. Different trading and settlement rulesA-Shares are subject to some unique trading rules, such as a
daily price limit of +/−10% and unit of trading quantity. Most
A-Shares are limited to a daily trading price range of +10%
to −10% of the prior day’s closing price. Currently, trading
quantity of A-Shares cannot be any random number of shares,
but has to be in the multiples of 100 shares. In addition to
the trading rule difference, the current settlement cycle of
A-Shares through Stock Connect is also different from the
schedule in the U.S. Securities settle on T day and money on
T+1 day for A-Shares through Stock Connect, as compared
to securities on T day and money on T+3 in the U.S.8 If such a
settlement cycle difference remains in the future, we don’t see
it as a risk for managers and brokers. Over the past few years,
working with local brokers, sub-custodian banks, and clearing
houses in China, many institutions have already handled
investing, and custody and accounting in the China market
effectively through Stock Connect.
7 Aon Hewitt Retirement & Investment Blog: “Volatility in China’s Stock Market” by Fei Amy Shang and John Thompson https://retirementandinvestmentblog.aon.com/BlogHome/Blog/October-2015/Volatility-in-China’s-Stock-Market.aspx
8 http://english.sse.com.cn/investors/shhkconnect/clear
Aon Hewitt MSCI's Announcement to Add China A-Shares to its Emerging Markets Index 10
More than the influx of passive money
As of December 31, 2016, assets in passive and active strategies benchmarked to MSCI ACWI
(including ACWI Investable Market Index and ACWI ex USA) total $2.88 trillion, and the MSCI EM
Index totals $1.59 trillion. In Table 4, we estimated the institutional money that could follow the
index change when A-Shares weight ranges from 0.73% to 16.9% of the MSCI EM Index.
The above calculation has not considered assets benchmarked
to other indices such as the FTSE series. As MSCI illustrated in
Figure 5, if China’s weight rises to 41%, H-Shares would count
for 18%, B-Shares and overseas 6%, and A-Shares 17%. By then,
Mid and Small Cap stocks could be included within the basket
of A-Shares, as compared to only Large Cap stocks at the initial
inclusion stage. This composition could be different depending
on China’s market openness. A-Shares could weigh more
and other share classes less in the total weight of China. The
potential influx as a percentage of the entire A-Shares market
size could be much higher than 5.3%, which is already a huge
inflow of capital.
In addition to the massive institutional money that could
follow the index change, we would also point out potential
alpha sources for active managers such as sectors sensitive to
domestic consumptions and Mid to Small Cap stocks that align
better with China’s economic growth orientation.
In comparing the sector weights of the current MSCI
China Index to the CSI 300 Index, A-Shares will challenge
active managers with a drastically different sector exposure
(Figure 6). Sectors such as Materials, Consumer Staples,
Health Care, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials
are weighted much higher in the CSI 300 Index than the level
in the current MSCI China Index.
Based on the broadest CSI China A-Shares Index, the
distribution of Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap, and Mini Cap is
33% / 15% / 16% / 20%, respectively, while the Large and Mid
Cap split in the MSCI China Index is 87% / 13%, respectively.
Active managers could access a much larger pool of Mid to
Small Cap stocks. In addition, the P/E ratio differences between
A-Shares and other China share classes could be explored by
active managers as well as for alpha generation.
Source: MSCI, eVestment, Morningstar, Bloomberg
China A-Shares Initial Weight
Potential China
A-Shares Weight
Benchmarked A-Shares
AUM Range ($billions)
MSCI ACWI 0.08% 1.88% $2.3–$54.0
MSCI EM 0.73% 16.90% $11.6–$268.7
Total $13.9–$322.7
As A % Of The Entire A-Shares Market 0.23%–5.32%
Table 4: Estimate of institutional money influx
Aon Hewitt MSCI's Announcement to Add China A-Shares to its Emerging Markets Index 11
Summary
We welcome MSCI’s move to include China A-Shares in the MSCI EM
Index, as investors start to access the investment universe of the second
largest economy in the world. In the near term, the announcement has
more of a symbolic meaning than actual impact on market participants.
We encourage investors to look beyond the initial tiny weight that
A-Shares constitute in the MSCI EM Index. We expect A-Shares to
claim higher weight in the EM Index and at a much faster pace if
China further opens up its domestic equity market. Before A-Shares
account for a more substantial weight, we believe that investors
should understand the potential implication of such a change and
make adjustments on investment policy setting, manager selection,
investment approach, and operational management accordingly.
Figure 7: Sector weight comparison
0%
Information technology
Consumer discretionary
Energy
Real estate
Health care
Materials
Consumer staples
Utilities
Industrials
Telcom
Financials
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Source: MSCI, China Securities Index
Q CSI 300 Index Q MSCI China Index
Contact
Fei Amy Shang, CFA Senior Investment Consultant +1(312) 381 1329 [email protected]
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