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THE ICISTHE ICIS--LOR MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE LOR MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTSteve Puckett & Harland BulowSteve Puckett & Harland Bulow
TRITRI--ZEN InternationalZEN International
2MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
SS INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION
SS CHINA ON THE WORLD STAGECHINA ON THE WORLD STAGE
SS LUBRICANTSLUBRICANTS
SS BASE OILBASE OIL
SS OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
3MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
SS INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION
SS CHINA ON THE WORLD STAGECHINA ON THE WORLD STAGE
SS LUBRICANTSLUBRICANTS
SS BASE OILBASE OIL
SS OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
4MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
CHINA ON THE WORLD STAGE CHINA ON THE WORLD STAGE
China, in just one generation, has risen to be the world’s….
S Number one target for foreign international investmentS Largest producer/exporter of many types of goodsS Largest producer/exporter of many foodstuffsS Second largest and fastest growing producer of carsS Largest ownership of mobile phonesS Second largest and fastest growing consumer of energy
5MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
THE 1960THE 1960’’s HAVE FADED INTO DISTANT MEMORYs HAVE FADED INTO DISTANT MEMORY
Photo source: Jon Sigurdson
6MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
GDP GROWTHGDP GROWTH
US Govt DOE ‘High Case’ - $ Billion 2000 yr US
A
USA
USA
USA
W. E
urop
e
W. E
urop
e
W. E
urop
e
W. E
urop
e
Chin
a Chin
a
Chin
a
Chin
a
Indi
a
Indi
a
Indi
a Indi
a
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1990 2001 2010 2015
USA W. Europe China India
7MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
WORLD OIL CONSUMPTIONUS Govt DOE ‘High Case’ - Million Bbls per day
US
A USA
US
A USA
W. E
urop
e
W. E
urop
e
W. E
urop
e
W. E
urop
e
Chi
na
Chi
na
Chi
na Chi
na
Indi
a
Indi
a
Indi
a
Indi
a
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 2001 2010 2015
USA W. Europe China India
8MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
ASIAASIA’’s OIL CONSUMPTION s OIL CONSUMPTION -- 20042004
New Zealand 150
Vietnam 200
Philippines 337Pakistan 440
Malaysia 526
Singapore 754
Thailand 852
Australia 968
Taiwan 1094
Indonesia 1127
S.Korea 2351
India 2389
Japan 5524
China 6508
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Thousand Bbls per day
Over 5,000 mbcd
Over 2,000 mbcd
Over 1,000 mbcd
Less than 1,000 mbcd
9MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
CHINA’s OIL GROWTH (source Tsinghua/TRI-ZEN)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Million Bbls per day
Production Demand
10MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
GLOBAL ENERGY RESOURCESGLOBAL ENERGY RESOURCES Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005
11MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
CHINA A GLOBAL PLAYER CHINA A GLOBAL PLAYER –– ENERGY SECURITY ENERGY SECURITY
TOP 10 CHINA CRUDE SUPPLIERS
Saudi Arabia 14%Oman 13%Angola 13%Iran 11%Russia 9%Sudan 5%Vietnam 4%Yemen 4%Congo 4%Equatorial Guinea 3%
Source: China Gov’t Stats 2004/Platts
12MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
GROWTH ISSUES GROWTH ISSUES –– ENERGY INFRASTRUCTUREENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE
S Energy – high rates of growth and diversification of energy sources± Refinery upgrading programs,
petchem construction ± Pipeline construction and the
emergence of gas ± Insatiable demand for power
generation/distribution± High energy costs
S Unabated infrastructure investment –roads, bridges, airports, ports
13MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
GROWTH ISSUES GROWTH ISSUES –– AUTO & GENERAL MANUFACTURINGAUTO & GENERAL MANUFACTURING
S Automotive – colossal investment ahead of market opening in 2007, most major auto companies active
S Auto-parts – growing rapidly and has 1600 manufacturers, with strong foreign presence
S Pharmaceuticals – US$8 billion market growing rapidly at 15% p.a.
S Cosmetics – growing at 13% p.a. and expected to reach US$10 billion by 2010
S Food and Beverage – growing rapidly with sectors such as meat a huge industry, as is beverages
S Telecoms & Technology growing at stellar rates
14MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
GROWTH ISSUES GROWTH ISSUES –– TRADETRADE
US merchandise-trade deficit with China
0
50
100
150
200
1990 1995 2000 2005 *
Source: US Dept of Commerce/The Economist * annualised
15MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
GROWTH ISSUES GROWTH ISSUES –– ENVIRONMENTENVIRONMENT
Photo source: Jeffery Lopes
16MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
S INTRODUCTION
S CHINA ON THE WORLD STAGE
S LUBRICANTS
S BASE OIL
S OUTLOOK
17MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
LUBRICANTS BUSINESS LUBRICANTS BUSINESS –– INDUSTRIALISATIONINDUSTRIALISATION
S Industrialisation and urbanisation continue unabatedS Large and growing market at over 4 million tonnes p.a.S Lube market dominated by large domestic companies
± Sinopec± PetroChina ± Large independents eg Monarch
S Internationals have ~25% of the market in premium lube grades S Auto lube market growth spectacular but slowingS Auto manufacturing capacity exceeding domestic demandS Industry standards brought up by foreign investment and export requirementsS International premium brands commanding good margins
18MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
LUBRICANTS BUSINESS LUBRICANTS BUSINESS –– DRIVERS DRIVERS
S Rapid modernisation and soaring growthS Leading demand growth rates far above global averages S Transportation & manufacturing both leading demandS Mostly mid/low tier markets but a growing demand for premium lubesS Foreign investment and foreign equipment demand quality S Increasing focus on the environmental/ legislative/performance/product life S Strong brand awareness & OEM drivers
19MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
LUBE DEMAND LUBE DEMAND –– 2005 vs 2010 2005 vs 2010 (‘000 tonnes p.a.)
Chi
na
Japa
n
Sou
th K
orea
Sou
th K
orea
Indo
nesi
a
Indo
nesi
a
Chi
na
Japa
n
Indi
a
Indi
a
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2005 2010
ChinaJapanIndiaSouth KoreaIndonesia
20MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
LUBE SEGMENTATION LUBE SEGMENTATION –– 20052005
Main Product Demand
Process Oil 6%
White Oil 2%
Marine 4%
Industrial 45%
Automotive 43%
21MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
AUTOMOTIVE LUBE SEGMENTATION AUTOMOTIVE LUBE SEGMENTATION –– 20052005
Automotive Demand
Gasoline 23%Heavy Diesel 41%
Motorcycle 7%
Agriculture 18%
Light Diesel 11%
Diesel has a large and increasing share
22MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
INDUSTRIAL LUBE SEGMENTATION INDUSTRIAL LUBE SEGMENTATION –– 20052005
Industrial Demand
Grease 3%
Hydraulic fluids 26%
Industrial Engine Oil 18%
Others 30%
Gear oil 4%
Compressor & turbine 8% Metal working 11%
Industrial sector is diverse
23MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
INDUSTRY STRUCTUREINDUSTRY STRUCTURE
S Domestic ‘national’ incumbents PetroChina and Sinopec seeing market shares continue drifting downwards
S Nationals have concerns and vulnerabilitiesS Large independent Monarch has built a strong positionS International majors blend locally and dominate top-tier marketsS Japanese companies challengingS Smaller foreign companies importing and some blend locally
24MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
SS INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION
SS CHINA ON THE WORLD STAGECHINA ON THE WORLD STAGE
SS LUBRICANTSLUBRICANTS
SS BASE OILBASE OIL
SS OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
25MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
BASE OIL PRODUCTIONBASE OIL PRODUCTION
S Production ~3 million tonnes S Sinopec and PetroChina capable of producing ~3.3 million at 21 locations S Local independents/re-refiners production declining rapidlyS Base oil imports amount to ~0.8 million tonnes and risingS PetroChina produces Naphthenic at Liahoe and Karamay up to 0.7 millionS PetroChina – has Group II potential at Daqing and LanzhouS Sinopec – has begun producing Group II at Gaoqiao
26MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
GROUP II/III CAPACITY GROUP II/III CAPACITY (tonnes p.a.)(tonnes p.a.)
S Current:± PetroChina Daqing & Lanzhou (Gp II) 250,000 (potential to be achieved)
S Recent addition:± Sinopec Gaoqiao 2005 (Gp II) 300,000 (upgrade now streaming)
S Proposed:± Sinopec Maoming 2007 (Gp III) 200,000 (delay anticipated)
S Elsewhere in Asia: (Gp II/III)± Petronas Melaka 2007 330,000± Formosa Petchem 2007 540,000 ± CPC Kaohsiung 2008 270,000 ± SK expansion planned± BPCL India 2006 180,000
27MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
BASE OIL TRADE FLOWS BASE OIL TRADE FLOWS –– 2005 2005
Group I
Group II/III
28MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
BASE OIL TRADE FLOWS BASE OIL TRADE FLOWS –– 20052005
S Europe the “swing” supplierS India’s roleS Trade Flows
± Group I ± Group II ± Group III
S Asia’s new suppliers S Asia’s new position
29MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
BASE OIL PRICES FOB SINGAPORE 1997BASE OIL PRICES FOB SINGAPORE 1997––20052005
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
US$/MT
SN150 SN500 Bstk
30MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
DOMESTIC BASE OIL CLASSIFICATIONDOMESTIC BASE OIL CLASSIFICATION
HVHIVIWHHVI-WMVI-HLVI-H(II)Highly refined
VHIHHVI-HMVI-WHLVI-H(I)Low pour point
Hydrocracked base oil:
HVI-SMVI-SHighly refined
HVI-WMVI-WLow pour point
Solvent refined base oil:
HVIMVILVIGeneral use base oil
>12095-12060-95<60Viscosity index
VHi VIHi VIMed VILow VI
Base oil - PetroChina's Classification System - 2002
UHVI-SVHVI-SHVI-SMVI-SHighly refined
UHVI-WVHVI-WHVI-WMVI-WLow pour point
Special purpose:
UHVIVHVIHVIMVILVIGeneral use base oil
>140120-140 90-120 40-90 <40Viscosity index
UHi VIVHi VIHi VIMed VILow VI
Base oil - Q/SHR001-1996 (Sinopec)
31MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
UPDATED CHINA BASE OIL CLASSIFICATIONUPDATED CHINA BASE OIL CLASSIFICATION
All others not included in Group I,II,III or IV Group VAll polyalphaolefins (PAO's)Group IV
>120>90<0.03 andGroup III100-120HVI-S+Group II80-120>90<0.03 andHVI-SGroup II80-120<90>0.03 and/orHVI HVIWGroup 140-80<90>0.03MVI
<40>90<0.03LVI-S
<40<90>0.03LVI
Viscosity IndexSaturates (%)Sulphur (%)GB StandardAPI ClassificationState Standard (GB)State Standard (GB)
32MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
BASE OIL EXPORT POTENTIALBASE OIL EXPORT POTENTIAL
S Export potential very limitedS Dalian exports ~40 kT per year
Gp I - SN400/150/70 - reducingS Gaoqiao now producing both
Gp I & IIS Maoming produces only
domestic gradesS Karamay in North West
produces naphthenic
GaoqiaoGaoqiao
MaomingMaoming
ShanghaiShanghai
TianjinTianjinDalianDalian
33MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
IMPORTS AND BLENDINGIMPORTS AND BLENDING
S ExxonMobil ~400kT and Shell ~200kT are largest importers from Singapore, for their coastal LOBPs and for term sales
S From Japan, ~80kT imported for Japanese JV and term customers inNorth and Central region
S From Taiwan, ~30kT imported to LOBPs South and Central regionS From Korea, ~30kT imported to North & Central regionS Other imports of ~30kT sourced for foreign invested LOBPs in SouthS Spot supplies from Russia, Iran etc
34MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
SS INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION
SS CHINA ON THE WORLD STAGECHINA ON THE WORLD STAGE
SS LUBRICANTSLUBRICANTS
SS BASE OILBASE OIL
SS FUTURE OUTLOOKFUTURE OUTLOOK
35MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
LUBE GROWTH PROJECTIONS 2005LUBE GROWTH PROJECTIONS 2005--20102010 (%p.a.)
Indonesia 4.5
China 4.8
Taiwan -0.5
Australia 0.5
Japan 0.5
Singapore 1
New Zealand 1.2
Philippines 2.6
South Korea 2.7
Malaysia 3.3
Thailand 4.2
Pakistan 4.3
Vietnan 4.4
India 4.6
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5
% p.a.
36MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
NEW VEHICLE EMISSION STANDARDSNEW VEHICLE EMISSION STANDARDS
Euro 4Euro 3Euro 2Euro 1Vietnam (diesel)Euro 4Euro 1Vietnam (mogas)
Euro 4Euro 3Euro 2Euro 1ThailandEuro 4Euro 2Euro 1Singapore
Euro 1Philippines
Euro 2MalaysiaEuro 2Euro 1Indonesia
Euro 3Euro 2Euro 1India (others)
Euro 4Euro 3Euro 2Euro 1India (main cities)
Euro 4Euro 3Hong KongEuro 3Euro 2Euro 1China (Others)
Euro 4 Euro 3Euro 2 Euro 1China (BJ & SH)
Euro 2 Bangladesh
Euro 5Euro 4Euro 3EU
20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
37MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
LUBE QUALITY TRENDSLUBE QUALITY TRENDS
S Lube technology driversS Auto market driversS Premium PCMO S Heavy vehicle marketS Supply push vs demand pullS Roles of Group II and Group III
38MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
MARKET OUTLOOK MARKET OUTLOOK -- KEY DRIVERSKEY DRIVERS
S Euro standardsS Timing – converging interestsS Drivers in AsiaS GF- 4 impactsS Technical impactsS Forecast 2010S GTL …..S Asia’s challengesS Lower barriers
39MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
THE GROWING CONSUMER CLASSES IN ASIATHE GROWING CONSUMER CLASSES IN ASIA
Source: MasterCard International – defined as income of US$5,000 +
China 237
China 64India 11
India 55
Indonesia 11
Indonesia 24
Malaysia 7
Malaysia 20
Philippines 4
Philippines 21
Thailand 10
Thailand 42
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2002 2010
populationmillions
China’s “consumer classes” are forecast to increase from 64 million to 237 million by 2010.
40MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
CHINA THEN & NOWCHINA THEN & NOW
ShanghaiShanghai’’s Bund in 2005 s Bund in 2005 and 1930and 1930’’ss
Photo source: Chinaguides.net
41MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
CHINA THEN & NOWCHINA THEN & NOW
ShanghaiShanghai’’s Pudong in 2005 s Pudong in 2005 aand 1930nd 1930’’ss
Photo source: Chinaguides.net
42MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE MIDDLE EASTERN BASE OILS & LUBRICANTS CONFERENCE –– Dubai 20Dubai 20--21 September 200521 September 2005
CHINA CHINA –– AN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANTAN EMERGING GLOBAL GIANT
THANK YOU THANK YOU ……. . Steve Puckett & Steve Puckett & Harland Bulow
TRI-ZEN International
Singapore
and
BangkokHanoiHong KongJakartaMelbourneMumbaiPerthShanghai
www.tri-zen.com