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Introduction
• North Korea, one of the major threat to US
• 北朝鮮是美國的一個主要威脅
• Communist and possession of nuclear weapons
• 核武器和共產主義
Background
• Founded in 1946 by Korean Worker’s Party• 1946 年建立由朝鮮勞動黨
• Communist rule, under leader Kim Il Sung• 在領導人金日成之下以共產主義管治 ,
• Fought against US in Korean War in 1950• 1950 年與美國在朝鮮戰爭中作戰
Background
• US help the south fought back• 美國幫助南部反擊
• The Chinese army joined and push back US troops to 38th parallel
• 中國軍隊參戰並將美軍推回三八線
• First Sino-US confrontation involving North Korea• 第一次牽涉北韓的中美交鋒
Background
• Set the orientation of the three countries
• 把三個國家定位
• North Korea • Ally hostile
•
• China improving relations US
The Nuclear Problem
• Started the development on nuclear energy in 1960s
• 在 60 年代開始了在核能的發展
• DPRK has her own uranium ore• 北韓有自己的鈾礦
• USSR was their major support• 蘇聯是他們的主要支持
The Nuclear Problem
• DPRK gradually mastered more of the technology• 北韓逐漸掌握了更多技術
• Drew the attention of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
• 引起了國際原子能組織的注意
• Signed an agreement over inspection of nuclear facilities• 簽署了在核設施檢查的一個協議
The Nuclear Problem
• In 1980s, DPRK began studies on practical uses of nuclear energy
• 在 80 年代 , 北韓開始了關於核能實用用途的研究
• Accusations of producing nuclear weapons• 生產核武器的指責
• Received great international pressure• 受到的巨大國際壓力
The Nuclear Problem
• Signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1985 with IAEA
• 1985 年跟國際原子能機構簽署核不擴散條約
• Accusations went on after the NPT• 指責在簽署條約以後繼續
• poor diplomatic manner made them an evil image • 差劣的外交手腕為他們建立一個邪惡的形像
The Nuclear Problem
• 1980s onwards, PRC and USSR became less supportive
• 80 年代往前 , 中國和蘇聯支援減退
• Turned to Iran, East Germany, Pakistan, etc.
• 轉向伊朗、東德、巴基斯坦 , 等。
The First Crisis
• Did not work cooperatively on diplomatic relations
• 沒有在外交關係工作上合作
• Delayed the inspections by IAEA and South Korea on her nuclear facilities
• 延遲由 IAEA 和南韓檢查她的核設施
The First Crisis
• Unstable foreign relations with the US• 與美國的外交關係不穩定
• In 1992, US suspect DPRK had 2 secret sites• 1992 年 , 美國懷疑北韓 2 個秘密核設施
• DPRK rejected the request of IAEA to inspect to the 2 sites
• 北韓拒絕讓 IAEA 人員檢查該兩處地點
The First Crisis
• 12 March 1993, DPRK withdrew from NPT• 1993 年 3 月 12 日 , 北韓退出核不擴散條約
• Countries persuaded DPRK to reconsider the decision
• 多國遊說北韓重新考慮決定
• The world was afraid of nuclear attack• 世界對核攻擊充滿恐懼
The First Crisis
• Negotiation came up with little progress• 談判進展緩慢
• US put forward a stronger posture, threaten DPRK with sanctions, or even military actions
• 美國擺出更強硬的姿態 , 以制裁甚至武力威脅北韓
The First Crisis
• In February 1994, DPRK gave in and allowed IAEA experts to enter and inspect
• 在 1994 年 2 月 , 北韓讓步 , 允許國際原子能機構專家進入和檢查
• Later, an ‘Agreed Framework’ was concluded between US and DPRK
• 美國和北韓簽訂 ` 框架協議 '
First Crisis
• According to the framework:• 根據框架協議
• DPRK has to freeze her nuclear facilities• 北韓必須凍結她的核設施
• US has to build 2 light-water reactors in DPRK by 2003, before that, provide heavy oil to compensate the energy insufficiency
• 美國必須在 2003 年以前在北韓修造 2 個輕水反應堆 , 那以前 , 提供重油補償能量不足
First Crisis
• The framework marked the end of the first crisis• 框架協議結束了第一次危機
• Tension remains as agreement was made on mistrust
• 協議在互不信任上簽署 ,局勢依然緊張
First Crisis
• US played the leading role in solving the 1st crisis
• 美國在解決第 1 次危機中扮演主導角色
• China, Japan and S. Korea had relatively smaller influence
• 中國、日本和南韓相對地影響力較小
Inter-crisis period
• Talks continued to fixed the details of the framework
• 雙方繼續談話商討框架協議的細節
• Deals were difficult to make due to their mistrust• 由於他們的互不信任 ,很難達成協議
Inter-crisis period
• China’s political direction diverge from DPRK one
• 中國的政治方向和北韓逐漸偏離
• Relations with US improved greatly under Clinton’s administration
• 中美關係在克林頓政府之下大幅改進
The Second Crisis
• US has been always suspicious DPRK of producing nuclear weapons
• 美國一直懷疑北韓生產核武器
• US led an energy organization to build light-water reactors on DPRK
• 美國帶領的能源組織在北韓修造輕水反應堆
• Capital wasn’t provided, US$47m debt• 資金未能按時提供 , US$47m 債務
The Second Crisis
• DPRK accused US deliberately produce energy insufficiency in DPRK
• 指責美國故意在北韓制造能源危機
• To respond, US accused DPRK of not abandoning nuclear weapons
• 美國回應 , 指責北韓並未放棄核武器
• Tension and mistrust accumulate over 1998-2002• 1998-2002間 ,緊張和不信任一直積累
The Second Crisis
• October 2002, US showed the evidence of DPRK development in nuclear weapons
• 2002 年 10 月 , 美國顯示了北韓發展核武器的證據
• DPRK first denied, 2 days later suddenly admitted ‘research on more powerful weapons’
• 北韓先否認 ,但後來突然承認正在研發更具威力的武器
The Second Crisis
• 13 November, US stopped the supply of heavy oil to DPRK
• 11 月 13 日 , 美國停止了對北韓供應重油
• 22 December, DPRK lifted the freeze on nuclear facilities • 12 月 22 日 , 北韓重新啟動核設施
• 10 January 2003, DPRK declared the withdrawal from the NPT
• 2003 年 1 月 10 日 , 北韓宣佈退出核不擴散條約
The Second Crisis
• China took the initiative to peaceful talks• 中國主動採取了和平對話
• 3 parties talk held in Beijing, April 2003• 3方會談在北京 2003 年 4 月舉行
• China, DPRK and US attended• 中國、北韓和美國出席
The Second Crisis
• Later in August, the first round of Six-parties talk started in Beijing
• 8 月 , 第一輪六方會談在北京開始
• DPRK, US, China, Japan, S. Korea, Russia
• 北韓 , 美國 , 中國 , 日本 , 南韓 , 俄國
Six-Parties Talk
• DPRK’s stand: US should eliminate hostility towards DPRK, guarantee not to attack DPRK before they can abandon their nuclear plan
• 北韓的立場 : 美國應該對北韓消除敵意 , 在他們保證不攻擊北韓之前 , 不可能摒棄核計劃
Six-Parties Talk
• US stand: DPRK should ‘Completely and irreversibly abandon all nuclear plans’ before US can offer any concession
• 美國立場 : 北韓如果 ` 完全地和不可逆地摒棄所有核計劃’ , 美國可以作出讓步
Six-Parties Talk
• Japan stand: simultaneously solve the problem of nuclear weapon, missiles, and the abduction of Japanese spies. DPRK should ‘completely abandon all nuclear plans’.
• 日本立場 : 同時解決核武器、飛彈 , 和日本間諜的綁架問題。北韓應該’完全地 摒棄所有核計劃’。
Six-Parties Talk
• China, S. Korea and Russia have similar stands:• 中國、南韓和俄國有相似的立場 :
• Ensure denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, clear the security worry of DPRK, and keep the region’s peace through discussion
• 保證朝鮮半島無核化 ,消除北韓安全憂慮 , 和通過討論保持地區的和平
Six-Parties Talk
• Little progress was made in the first three rounds of talks
• 在第一至三輪會談進展緩慢
• Breakthrough came in the fourth round of talk, September 2005
• 2005 年 9 月 , 第四輪會談出現突破
Six-Parties Talk
• DPRK is willing to give up all nuclear weapons and plans and rejoin the NPT
• 北韓願意放棄所有核武器和計劃並重返 NPT
• US confirmed that she has no nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula and will not attack DPRK
• 美國證實她在朝鮮半島沒有核武器 , 並不會攻擊北韓
Six-Parties Talk
• Similar agreement was made as the 1994 agreed framework
• 簽署了的協議和 1994 框架協議很相似
• The nuclear problem is contained and to be solved by peaceful means
• 核問題受到控制和通過和平手段解決
Decoding
• Failure in Afghanistan and Iraq• 在阿富汗和伊拉克的失敗
• Bush’s foreign policy severely questioned• 布殊的外交政策被嚴重質疑
• Treat DPRK is a milder way• 在北韓問題以更寬鬆的方式處理
Decoding
• China replaced US as the leading role in solving the crisis
• 中國替換了美國作為在解決危機的主導
• Rise of voices for unification in S. Korea, oppose strong measures taken by US and Japan
• 在南韓統一的聲音興起 , 反對由美國和日本採取的強硬措施
Decoding
• Rising status in economic and political aspect, as well as influence in the region
• 在經濟 /政治的方面的地位上升 , 並且增強在這個區域的影響
• China led US through the crisis
• 中國帶領了美國通過危機
Decoding
• Details of the agreement not yet confirmed • 協議的細節未被確定
• Mistrust still exist between DPRK and US• 北韓和美國之間仍然存在不信任
• On the day after the agreement, DPRK request US build the reactors first before they abandon nuclear plans
• 協議以後第二日 , 北韓要求美國在他們摒棄核計劃之前先提供反應堆
On the backside
• Countries don’t want the problem to be solved so soon
• 大國不想問題那麼很快被解決
• Japan, the nuclear problem in Korea can be an excuse for her to expand army
• 韓國核問題可能是日本的一個藉口擴展軍隊
• Russia want to exert more influence in East Asia• 俄國想在東亞施加更多影響力
On the backside
• For US and China, their major consideration is their relations
• 美國和中國的主要考慮是他們的關係
• unstable situation can keep US army on the peninsula
• 不穩定的情況可以保留在朝鮮半島的美軍
• US opposes ‘Sunshine policy’, list DPRK as ‘evil axis’
• 美國反對‘陽光政策’ ,列北韓為 ` 邪惡軸心’國家
On the backside
• Existence of the nuclear problem recognize the diplomatic importance of China between US and Japan
• 核問題在美國和日本之間認可中國的外交重要性
• Strategic value of China will fall if the problem is solved, US will further surround China
• 如果問題被解決 , 中國的戰略價值將下跌 , 美國將進一步圍堵中國
Looking Ahead
• US and China remain in a strategic partner-competitor relationship
• 美國和中國持續在一個戰略夥伴 -競爭者關係之中
• The nuclear problem will be a tool to counterbalance the decisions of US and China
• 核問題制衡美國和中國雙方的決定