China-U.S. cooperation on China's subnational low carbon planning toolkitdevelopment and applicationQingchan Yu, Stephen M. Roe, Shengnian Xu, Scott Williamson, Nanying Cui, Jiaman Jin, and Thomas D.Peterson Citation: Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy 7, 041501 (2015); doi: 10.1063/1.4927000 View online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4927000 View Table of Contents: http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/journal/jrse/7/4?ver=pdfcov Published by the AIP Publishing Articles you may be interested in Editorial: Energy and the U.S. Department of State J. Renewable Sustainable Energy 4, 060401 (2012); 10.1063/1.4772638 The low-carbon transformation—A social science perspective J. Renewable Sustainable Energy 4, 041404 (2012); 10.1063/1.4730138 Achieving food security while switching to low carbon agriculture J. Renewable Sustainable Energy 4, 041405 (2012); 10.1063/1.3670412 Technology roadmap for low carbon society in China J. Renewable Sustainable Energy 2, 031008 (2010); 10.1063/1.3458415 A concrete roadmap toward a low-carbon society in case of Kyoto City J. Renewable Sustainable Energy 2, 031004 (2010); 10.1063/1.3290181

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China-U.S. cooperation on China’s subnational low carbonplanning toolkit development and application

Qingchan Yu,1,a) Stephen M. Roe,2 Shengnian Xu,1 Scott Williamson,2

Nanying Cui,1 Jiaman Jin,1 and Thomas D. Peterson2

1Global Environmental Institute, Beijing 100062, China2Center for Climate Strategies, Washington, DC 20006, USA

(Received 29 April 2015; accepted 2 July 2015; published online 20 July 2015)

In May 2011, the China-based Global Environmental Institute and the US-based

Center for Climate Strategies successfully joined the China-U.S. EcoPartnership

program. The cooperation aims to adapt a methodology and tools used for making

U.S. state climate action plans to China’s subnational and municipal contexts, in

order to help subnational governments achieve carbon emission targets by making

scientific and effective climate and energy policies. To achieve this objective, a

China subnational low carbon planning toolkit including a systematic process of

selection, design and analysis of climate and energy policies was developed and

successfully demonstrated in Chongqing Municipality. Through technical exchange

and training, the capabilities of Chinese officials and experts who cooperated with

us to quantitatively analyze low carbon development policies have been improved.

The cooperation also promoted exchange between Chinese provinces and U.S.

states on climate and energy policy. VC 2015 AIP Publishing LLC.

[http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4927000]

I. OVERVIEW OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL INSTITUTE-CENTER FOR CLIMATE

STRATEGIES (GEI-CCS) COOPERATION

China has been facing the huge dual challenges of economic growth and greenhouse gas

(GHG) emission reduction since 2008. China’s State Council stated that the task of tackling cli-

mate change should be included in the national economic and social development plans in

2009.1 Moreover, in August 2010, China’s National Development and Reform Commission

(NDRC) announced the “Low Carbon Pilot Project in five provinces and eight cities.”2 GEI

believed that the quantification for GHG emission reduction, policy cost-effectiveness analysis,

and economic impact assessment was crucial for making and implementing scientifically defen-

sible low carbon development plans. At that time, through discussions with Chinese technical

experts, GEI found that China lacked planning tools that combined “bottom-up microeconomic

analysis” and “top-down macroeconomic impact evaluation” to effectively identify appropriate

and optimal climate and low-carbon policies and craft those policies to best serve multiple pol-

icy priorities. To address this, GEI realized the need to introduce international expertise and

experience.

CCS is the premier catalyst in the United States for subnational climate policy development

and integration, and is widely recognized for its highly successful model for U.S. state climate

action planning, which integrates advanced economic modeling, stakeholder input, and a con-

sensus building facilitation process. Since 2005, CCS’ signature process has been refined and

enhanced through more than 20 state action plans in the U.S., and provision of technical assis-

tance to 42 U.S. states, six Mexican border states, and four Canadian provinces. In partnering

with CCS, GEI saw an opportunity to leverage complementary organizational efforts to support

policy exchange and technical analysis in response to China’s low carbon development needs.

a)Electronic mail: qcyu@geichina.org

1941-7012/2015/7(4)/041501/6/$30.00 VC 2015 AIP Publishing LLC7, 041501-1

JOURNAL OF RENEWABLE AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY 7, 041501 (2015)

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In 2010, GEI and CCS began cooperation with the Institute of Policy and Management of

the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IPM CAS) to develop and demonstrate a province- and city-

level low carbon planning toolkit, by adapting the methodology, models and tools used for U.S.

state-level climate action planning to China’s subnational contexts. The expectation was that

developing a low carbon planning toolkit would assist subnational governments in China with

their efforts to make quantifiable and implementable policies to meet their carbon intensity

reduction goals, and to assess the timing of peak carbon emissions.

II. DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF LOW CARBON PLANNING TOOLKIT

In the initial phase, GEI coordinated IPM CAS experts to conduct a thorough study of the

U.S. state-level climate action planning methodology created by CCS experts, and summarized

two key aspects which underline the significance and value of customizing U.S. expertise for a

Chinese context.3,4 The first key aspect concerns the engagement of stakeholders, including

governmental agencies and representatives from companies and the general public. Only the

participation of all these stakeholders in the entire planning process guarantees a climate action

plan can be designed in a scientific and implementable manner. The second key aspect focuses

on the importance of a standard framework for low carbon planning procedures (a step-wise

process) and effective micro-economic quantification analysis to create the detailed policy-

level, bottom-up results. These direct impacts are summarized in a variety of ways within the

toolkit, including marginal abatement cost curves.

Given the difference in economic development and political systems between China and

the U.S., experts from GEI and IPM CAS also proposed two additional aspects that should be

addressed when adapting U.S. methodologies and tools to fit Chinese contexts. First of all,

energy consumption and GHG emissions in the transportation and residential and commercial

building sectors are paid more attention by U.S. state governments when they make climate

policies. In contrast, policies to reduce energy consumption in the industrial and power supply

sectors are more important for low carbon development planning in Chinese provinces and

cities, since levels of urbanization and economic growth in China remain comparatively high.

Thus, U.S. sector-level tools that lacked independent industry sector components required modi-

fication for Chinese contexts, to allow for better analysis of the effectiveness and efficiency of

GHG emission reduction policies in industrial sectors. Second, statistical data regarding energy

and natural resources in China is not always complete or fully transparent, so conducting field

surveys and detailed interviews with relevant stakeholders to collect and verify necessary infor-

mation, as well as using plausible alternative data, are necessary techniques for adapting and

implementing U.S. methodology and tools.

With the support of China’s NDRC and other governmental agencies, experts from GEI

and IPM CAS collected a large amount of data and policy design details required for adapting

U.S. climate action planning tools and models. Following more than two years’ efforts by

Chinese and U.S. experts, development of a Chinese toolkit for low-carbon development plan-

ning was completed and included two key elements. The first element is bottom-up and

includes energy and GHG baselines and direct microeconomic analysis for individual policy

options. The second element allows for indirect macroeconomic modeling for overall assess-

ment of the broader impacts of policies (e.g., on economic growth, employment, personal

income, etc.). The toolkit includes the following tools and templates as shown in Figs. 1 and 2:

• GHG Baseline Tools: a series of Microsoft Excel workbooks for developing historical and fore-

casted GHG emissions covering six sectors including energy supply, industry, transportation,

residential-commercial-institutional, agriculture and forestry, and waste management. This

allows for calculation of GHG emissions arising from production of energy-intensive products

in the industrial sector.• Sector-Level Policy Catalogs: sector-level workbooks that contain a starting set of policies at

national, provincial, and city levels for consideration in low-carbon planning.

041501-2 Yu et al. J. Renewable Sustainable Energy 7, 041501 (2015)

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• Policy Screening: within the Toolkit’s Synthesis Module workbook, these are extensions to the

policy catalogs that guide a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) of all policies in the catalogs to assist

in the selection of a prioritized set of policies for quantitative analysis. For each policy option,

GHG emission reduction, economic cost, and impacts on the macro economy are considered in

the MCA.• GHG Target Setting: also found within the synthesis module, this is an extension from policy

screening. This tool aggregates and compares screening-level estimates of GHG reductions for

the selected policies against the GHG baseline and alternative reduction targets.• Micro-Economic Analysis Tools: sector-level Excel workbooks that support policy cost-benefit

analysis (net direct social costs-benefits). GHG emission reduction and related cost-benefit for

each policy can be calculated, and all quantified policy options can be sorted through the com-

parison of GHG emission reduction or economic cost.• Integrated Economy-Wide Results: a top-down macroeconomic model that assists in the inte-

gration of all policy-level results into full economy-wide impacts, including GHG reduction,

microeconomic cost, economic growth, and employment in a specific region.

Chongqing Municipality was chosen to be the first pilot for demonstrating the low carbon

planning toolkit. The toolkit was used to calculate the emission reductions, costs and benefits of

over 20 policies listed in the 12th Five-Year Plan of Chongqing Municipality, relating to renew-

able energy portfolios, electric vehicle promotion, and phasing-out of outdated energy intensive

facilities, amongst others. These policies involve six key sectors: energy supply, industry, trans-

portation, residential-commercial-institutional, agriculture and forestry, and waste management,

which account for more than 100 GHG emission sources.5 Analysis of the results showed that

from all the quantified policy options, the three with greatest carbon emission reductions poten-

tial in 2015 were: increasing the efficiency of coal-fired power plants, pursuing a renewable

energy portfolio standard, and developing combined heat and power (CHP). Results showed

that carbon intensity in Chongqing can be reduced by 17% in 2015 below 2010 levels if all

quantified low carbon policy options are implemented. According to the marginal abatement

FIG. 1. Key elements of the low carbon planning toolkit.

FIG. 2. Example of analysis results addressing agriculture, forest and fishery (AFF) sector.

041501-3 Yu et al. J. Renewable Sustainable Energy 7, 041501 (2015)

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cost curve produced, half of the policy options can create net benefits, due mainly to significant

savings in energy use as shown in Fig. 3.

A report entitled “Analysis of low-carbon policies in the Chongqing ‘12th Five-year Plan’

and policy recommendations” was submitted to the Chongqing Municipal DRC, and highly rec-

ognized by Mr. Dong Xiaochuan, the Director of Climate Change Division of Chongqing DRC,

as a high quality and innovative resource. A “Certification of Outcome Application” was issued

by the Chongqing DRC, which stated “policy suggestions proposed in this research are very

practical and can be used as a reference for formulating low-carbon policies in the future.

Moreover, some policy recommendations will be adopted in the ‘13th Five-year Plan’.”

In addition to the Chongqing pilot, GEI’s Chinese partner—IPM CAS—used the toolkit to

complete a report of “China’s Low Carbon Development Scenario Analysis and

Macroeconomic Impact Assessment” that was included in the “China Sustainable Development

Report 2014.” The policies pertaining to China’s energy transition and renewable energy devel-

opment post-2020, as well as macroeconomic impacts of various development scenarios, were

analyzed in the report. The results showed that energy structure has significant influence on car-

bon emission and air pollution in China. If the proportion of coal consumption in total primary

energy use in 2030 could be reduced by 5% compared to business-as-usual (BAU) scenario,

carbon emissions would be reduced by 11.3%–22.8% accordingly.6 Therefore, energy transition

and renewable energy development are significant for China to achieve the peaking of CO2

emissions around 2030 and to make best efforts to peak early, as proposed by China’s

President Xi in the U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change in November 2014.

III. SIGNIFICANCE OF GEI-CCS COOPERATION

Launched in 2010, the cooperation between GEI and CCS was the first of its kind in China

to conduct quantitative economic analysis of low carbon polices. The partnership and its work

is gradually changing decision-making processes in China, which previously relied only on

qualitative estimation, into a more scientific mechanism emphasizing the importance of quanti-

tative analysis. For example, Director General of the Department of Climate Change of the

NDRC, Mr. Su Wei, commented that development and application of the toolkit had been very

helpful, both to increase the awareness of Chinese officials about the importance of making

science-based decisions and develop capacity among Chinese experts to provide technical assis-

tance in support of policy making.

FIG. 3. Marginal abatement cost curve of Chongqing low carbon plan. Policies from the same sector are in the same color

as shown.

041501-4 Yu et al. J. Renewable Sustainable Energy 7, 041501 (2015)

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The partnership between GEI and CCS has also fostered cooperation between government

agencies in China and the U.S., providing an unofficial channel for China-U.S. provincial-state

exchanges. This has also provided a platform to push forward the two countries’ collaboration

in clean energy and other areas. In April 2013, Guangdong Province and the State of California

signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on low carbon collaboration. As advocates of

the points covered by the MOU, GEI Executive Director Jin Jiaman and CCS President Tom

Peterson were invited to witness the signing ceremony. On the same day, GEI and CCS sup-

ported the Guangdong DRC to hold a seminar on low-carbon development in Guangdong and

California.

China-U.S. cooperation on climate change, facilitated by GEI, CCS, and relevant partners,

provides a valuable reference for further global climate cooperation initiatives. GEI and CCS

have introduced the achievements of their EcoPartnership at side events jointly hosted during

the annual the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) climate

negotiations, to demonstrate joint efforts for addressing climate change. The 2012 side event in

Qatar focused on pursuing mutual benefits from differences in climate policy exchange and

technical collaboration. The 2013 side event in Poland focused on the bottom-up approach

taken in China-U.S. low-carbon cooperation. Participating in such events is an ideal opportunity

to introduce the cooperation between GEI and CCS, and at a higher level China and the U.S.,

to a global audience and provide a reference for others considering similar global climate part-

nerships. Interest has previously been expressed by delegates from countries including South

Africa about adapting the toolkit for more widespread use.

IV. SUSTAINABILITY AND FUTURE PLANS

The low carbon planning toolkit adapted from U.S. climate action planning tools can be

flexibly customized to different regions. As such, GEI and CCS will continue to promote its

application in more Chinese provinces and cities to assist with subnational low carbon develop-

ment planning. GEI and CCS will work with Jinan University’s Low Carbon and Sustainable

Development Institute in Guangdong Province, to help conduct research on how to achieve car-

bon emission peak in Guangdong. Considering the difference in low carbon approaches and

paths adopted in Guangdong Province and Chongqing Municipality, analysis of Guangdong’s

low carbon policies will require the addition of more functional features to the toolkit, further

increasing its compatibility and applicability and paving a way for its extensive deployment to

wider regions.

In order to promote application of the toolkit in policy-making and implementation, GEI

and CCS will cooperate with the Chinese Academy of Governance (CAG) and the Tianjin

Academy of Governance (TAG) to design training curriculum and courses on how to under-

stand and conduct low carbon policy quantification. As part of this, training will be provided to

the teaching staff at local academies of governance following the “train the trainers” methodol-

ogy. As CAG and TAG are the two important institutes that provide systematical training to

national and local governmental officials in China, the new partnership with these institutes will

be crucial in supporting scale up of the toolkit’s application across China. GEI and CCS intend

to enable as many Chinese provinces and cities as possible to move forward with government

support and assistance of the toolkit to conduct low carbon development policy analyses.

The China-U.S. EcoPartnership has successfully promoted exchange and cooperation

between the U.S. and China to achieve shared climate change goals. Looking forward, GEI and

CCS are dedicated to continue engaging in further partnerships, based on the principal of win-

win collaboration. We understand the importance of finding valuable partners, and are excited

to nurture strong networks. We believe that it is these partnerships that will constitute future

climate successes.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We would like to thank Wang Yi, Tan Xianchun, Zou Lele, and Billy Leung for assisting

development of the low carbon planning toolkit and providing valuable comments on policy

041501-5 Yu et al. J. Renewable Sustainable Energy 7, 041501 (2015)

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analysis. The GEI-CCS cooperation program was initially funded by the Blue Moon Fund andRockefeller Brothers’ Fund, and strongly supported by China’s NDRC, the U.S. Department ofState and U.S. Department of Energy.

1China’s National Development and Reform Commission, “Report on addressing climate change to State Council,” 2009.2China’s National Development and Reform Commission, “Notice on launching Chinese provincial and city low-carbonpilots,” Report No. 1587, 2010.

3Johns Hopkins University and Center for Climate Strategies, “Impacts of comprehensive energy and climate policyoptions on the U.S. economy,” 2010.

4S. Miller et al., “The macroeconomic impact of the Michigan climate action plan on the state’s economy,” 2010.5Y. Wang et al., “Report on the analysis of low-carbon policies in the Chongqing “12th five-year plan” and policy recom-mendations,” 2014, pp. 41–42.

6Y. Wang et al., “Structuring the scenarios for ecological civilization,” China Sustainable Development Report, 2014, pp.71–77.

041501-6 Yu et al. J. Renewable Sustainable Energy 7, 041501 (2015)

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