China’s Maritime Silk Road and

International Developments in the South China Sea:

A Naval Perspective

Vijay SakhujaDirector

National Maritime Foundation New Delhi

Maritime Silk Road

Developments in South China Sea

Maritime/Naval Dynamics

Rise of Asia in the

21st Century

Enhanced economic dynamism

Geoeconomic construct : trade and energy flows

Distinctive maritime focus

Geostrategic construct : region characterized by continental and maritime powers

Economics and security shaping eco-pol-mil discourse

INDIA

JAPAN

THE BLUE TAPESTRY

CHINA

Dependence on sea lanes

Economic prosperity intertwined with maritime affairs

Regional waterways : strategic for merchant and naval shipping

Military modernisation : Maritime orientation

ASEAN

US

China Indonesia India

Maritime Silk Road Global Maritime Axis Monsoon

Historical ; Economic; Strategic

Historical ; Economic ; Strategic

Historical

Recalling the ancient maritime preeminence

21st century is rediscovery of their maritime power

Harness the seas for realization of power potential

Build naval power to preclude dominance

Exhibit ability to ensure order at sea

2011 : China-ASEAN Maritime Co-operation Fund proposed and Yuan 3 billion committed 2013 : MSR announced at the 16th China-ASEAN Summit Brunei

“we need to steadily advance maritime cooperation. We should work together to build the Maritime Silk Road of the 21st century, and intensify cooperation on marine economy, maritime connectivity, ……………….”;

ASEAN welcomed the MSR but sought clarifications

Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Bangladesh happy to join the MSR

June 2014 : MSR discussed during Hamid Ansari’s visit to China ‘more details to be able to study the proposal in all its fullness’

Maritime Silk Road

Maritime Silk Road

Southwest Silk Road

Silk Road on Grassfields

Silk Road through Oasis and Desserts

Silk Road on Ice Silk Road through Mountains

Silk Road through Oasis and Desserts

4.4 billion people or 63% of the world’s population

Wealth : US $2.1 trillion or 29% of global GDP

Pol-Dip Economic Strategic Cultural

Consolidate relations with countries in Asia and beyond

Build infra to support trade with countries along the route

Outposts for PLAN ops in the Indian Ocean

Promote Chinese culture

Great power status

Investment and profits

Dispel China threat

Soft power

Challenge hegemony

Energy Security

Mil Sales Enhance tourism

Maritime Silk Road

Maritime Silk Road : Reactions

India ‘Strategic encirclement’ by China through covert and overt mil-strat support to neighbours particularly Pakistan

United States

‘String of pearls’ coined by Booz Allen Hamilton highlighting China’s energy supply chain strategy; also explain China’s naval presence in Indian Ocean

China Dispel ‘China threat’, which envisages ‘shared destiny’ of China with Asian countries through joint development of maritime infrastructure to provide impetus to economic growth

Developments in

South China Sea

Country Location Runway (m)

Aircraft

China Woody Island 2350 Su 27, Su 30, J10

Malaysia Layang Layang 600 C 130C235

Vietnam Truong Sa Lon 600 ???????

Taiwan Taipingdao 600 ???????

Philippines Pagasa (Rancudo) Airfield)

1300 C 130

Fiery Cross /Subi /Mischief Reefs3 X 3-km runways

Activities ‘lawful, reasonable and justifiable’ Discharging international responsibility and obligation towards SAR and disaster prevention and mitigation

‘provide regional countries with these much needed public goods at sea’.

Xi Jinping Pledges No Militarization in Disputed Islands

China and ASEAN : Set up hotlines for SAR and rapid responses to maritime emergencies

Submarine-related infrastructure at Yulin Naval Base, Hainan

Woody Island has runway, mobile missile battery, naval facilities, and network of Intel and Com infrastructure

Mid-air refuelling enhances loiter and Su27, Su30, JF 10 stand-off weapon capability makes them formidable

Liaoning can launch about 30 fixed-wing

CHINA

6 x Project 636M diesel-electric submarines (US $2 bn) by 2016

2+2 x Gepard-class frigates (US$ 350 million)

20+ 12 Su 30 fighter jets in three instalments. (worth US$ 450 million or US$ 600 million) delivery of third batch by 2015

VIETNAM

Financial constraints , preoccupation with counter insurgency precluded building up the navy

Weakest in terms of naval power and relies on the US for its security requirements

BRP Ramon Alcaraz (3,250 tonnes decommissioned Hamilton-class US Coast Guard cutter) transferred under the military assistance programme.

‘It will further intensify our patrolling of the Philippines' EEZ and our capability to quell any threat and bad elements, respond to search and rescue operations and take care of our marine resources’ President Benigno Aquino

Philippines

RMN has set up five naval facilities for operations in South China Sea : Sungai Antu in Sarawak and four in Sabah, i.e. Labuan, Sandakan, Semporna and Sepanggar

Scorpene class submarines based in RMN HQ Region II 

RMAF operates the Su 30

MALAYSIA

Threat of overwhelming Chinese military power

Number of missiles in China targeted against Taiwan

Taiping Island (Itu Aba) jetty to berth small vessels - 6 tons

Airstrip : partially loaded Hercules C-130H in “extremely good” weather conditions

Plans to modernize and expand these facilities to position coast guard ships

Taiwan

Airstrips : the proverbial ‘unsinkable aircraft carriers’

Sophisticated approach to augment military infrastructure

Tourism and marine leisure industry harnessed to build landing facilities for ships and aircraft.

Several islets are being developed as tourism destinations and the leisure industry is invited to invest Airstrips can stage smaller aircraft including helicopters, but are not equipped for extended staging facility

Ship jetties, berths and safe anchorages support operations and provided shelter during the typhoon months Provide minor repairs and rest & recuperation for the crew

Conclusion

SCS MSRInfrastructure Military Commercial /military

Regional Perceptions Anxious Receptive/Anxious

Intent and Response Aggressive Benign/Aggressive

Military Response Build-up Build-up/Access

Regional Security Uncertain Competitive