7/24/2019 China's War

1/3

The World Overall: In Depth

Intra One | Andrei Wogen| finance.wogen@gmail.com| 01-11-16

Chinas War

There is a reality that is unfolding before me that is troubling andconcerning while at the same time exciting and interesting tothink about and consider. The reality I see is this: Chinaseconomy is weakening and the Chinese government is losing its

grip on trying to manage its fall, both in its financial markets butalso its overall economy while at the same time the geopoliticalsphere is becoming more and more unstable, not only in theposter child of conflict, the Middle East, but also in other areas ofthe world including Europe and the Americas and in NorthKorea, which is the country that I want to narrow in on for thispaper.As Chinas economy continues to weaken further and further Ican see the government continuing to step up their efforts to helpstabilize and revitalize the Chinese economy through policymeasures and economic measures with the goal of spurringgrowth and investment back into the country. Whether this willwork or not, only time will tell though in my view the Chineseauthorities are losing their grip on the country and there are

really three ways that I can see this ending as: (1) China losescomplete grip on what it is doing and in its efforts to helprevitalize and spur growth back into the Chinese economy aswell as to save face with the rest of the world and investors inparticular, they decide to go the military and war route,solidifying its dominance in different areas of the world (SouthChina Sea, North Korea) while at the same time revitalizing itseconomy as it produces the things needed to be successful in itswar and military endeavors; the second (2) scenario I can seehappening is that the Chinese authorities lose control over whatthey are doing to reform and grow the Chinese economy butinstead of having the time and strategic planning and executionof war to help change things, the economy and the governmentin particular both collapse, following roughly the same path as

the Soviet Union followed right before and when it collapsed;and then theres the third (3) option and this option of the three isthe one that I see least likely as happening, is that China turns acorner, the government is successful in not only implementingthe reforms it needs to do and wants to do but also at the sametime revitalizes the economy and all ends well, so to speak. Sothree scenarios that I see playing out but only one that I see reallyplaying and that has the highest odds of actually happening, atleast in my view. That option is the option of military might andoutright war.

mailto:finance.wogen@gmail.com

7/24/2019 China's War

2/3

First off, I want to go back and talk about North Korea for aminute. About a week ago from the time of writing this paper(January 11th 2016), North Korea completed some sort of nucleartest that caused earthquake-like conditions for its neighborswhile at the same time causing fear and concern from itsneighbors as to what the North Koreans were actually doing. TheNorth Koreans claim that they had successfully denoted a

hydrogen bomb while the US and its allies in the area (Japan,South Korea, etc.) claim otherwise and think it was s a nuclear

bomb of a smaller degree than what the North Koreans claimed itwas. As a side note, between a nuclear bomb and a hydrogen

bomb, a nuclear bomb is the betteroption of the two so tospeak in terms of its danger and destruction level. Hydrogen

bombs carry much more destructive powers then nuclear bombsdo due to how they are built and so forth. But that is for anotherdiscussion. Going back to North Korea, after the countrydetonated whatever they detonated (nuclear or hydrogen bomb),one of the more interesting aspects of the aftermath of the NorthKoreans actions was in what China said. They, in essence,publicly denounced North Koreas actions calling instead forstability in the region and for North Korea to turn from itsways so to speak. So, why is this important that China did this?Well in short form it is because if there was one country in theworld that had the key to shutting down North Korea and reallyforcing it to change its ways it is China. China is North Koreas

biggest trading partner and, up until the current North Koreanleader anyway, Kim Jong-un, has been to a large degree apolitical ally of North Korea including in North Koreas efforts to

build a nuclear bomb. Now, China never said North Korea, itsokay to build a nuclear bomb but they never came out against iteither. Until now. This is interesting and a bit concerning to me.Up till now, most have figured that the reason that China has notdone anything to deal with North Korea and its leader, is becauseChina has wanted stability in the region and they know that anysort of action against North Korea could very well in fact causeinstability not only for the Eastern Asian region of the world butfor the whole world in general. However, could this desire byChina for stability in the region be changing? Could we actuallysee more rhetoric from China against North Korea and, dare I sayit, could we see China actually coming to the table in terms oftrying to negotiate with North Korea and the members of theworld that are trying to keep Kim Jung-un from building anuclear (or hydrogen) bomb, the US included? Maybe, but becareful in assuming that China would really want to negotiatewith North Korea. Going back now to the three scenarios that Isaid I could see happening with China as its economy strugglesand continues to weaken, one of those scenarios included

basically had China causing and/or some sort of conflict in the

region and/or world at large in order to not only boost itsmilitary and political presence in the world, but also to helprevitalize its economy. Maybe this rhetoric against North Korea isChinas way of beginning to stir the pot so to speak. MaybeChina is realizing that North Korea is really a threat and that theonly way to really deal with them is to go at them, not only at thenegotiation table, but also militarily. And what better time forChina to try and pursue such a strategy, once again pointing toits weakening economy. This then is the scenario that I can mostsee playing out. I think the odds are stacked in favor of the

7/24/2019 China's War

3/3

hypothesis that China will eventually turn to military might tohelp solve its economic woes, thereby causing or joining someoutright conflict or war in the world.Now, how big are the odds of this scenario happening? Im notcompletely sure. Though Chinas authorities came out publiclyagainst what North Korea did a week or so before today (January11th, 2016), it is difficult to gauge just what the Chinese

authorities and its leaders are thinking privately. I think at thispoint, China will continue along with the policy option, botheconomically and politically and militarily and only when thingsare going really bad do I expect them to become desperate. Whencould things get really bad in China, particularly with itseconomy? Debt crisis, currency collapsing are just two of the

biggest and more probable scenarios that I can see playing out atthis point. But we shall see.As of now the idea of China turing to military might and effortsin a bid to help prop up and revitalize their economy is a weakone I admit. But it is the strongest of the three scenarios providedabove and that is concerning to me in itself and so is somethingto watch for to see if it begins to unfold. Who knows, maybe 2016is the year that things (finally?) start to really explode on theglobal sphere.