Choices of Our Generation

Flood Risk Assessment for Thailand Rice Supply-Chain : Climate Scenario Analysis

Poon Thiegnburanathum, Ph.D.

Climate Change and Infrastructure Research Unit, Chiangmai University

Future Floods : An Exploration of Cross-Disciplinary Approach to Flood Risk Forecasting, 26-27 February 2015, NUS, Singapore

Agenda• Risk Flood Assessment Framework

• Thailand Rice Supply-Chain

• Climate Change and Flooding ?

• Baseline Analysis and Flood Prone Area

• Climate Scenario ?

Floods in Thailand

Thailand’s Food 2011

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1443042&page=6

Year Flood Description Economic Cost (THB)

Economic Cost (USD)

1785 4.25-meter (13.94-foot) flood height N/A N/A

1819 3.20-meter (10.50-foot) flood height N/A N/A

1831 Floodwaters reached the top of protective walls N/A N/A

1917 All roads underwater for at least one month’s time N/A N/A

1942 1.50-meter (4.92-foot) flood height, which persisted for two months’ time N/A N/A

1975 Floods caused by tropical depression 1.1 billion 36.2 million

1980 Four days of excessive rainfall in city prompts widespread flooding 700 million 23.1 million

1982 Heavy rainfall prompts flooding 1.1 billion 36.0 million

1983 Remnants of multiple tropical cyclones prompts 3-5 months of flooding in the city 6.6 billion 217.5 million

1995 Chao Phraya River measured at 2.27 meters (7.45 feet) above sea level 3.0 billion 98.8 million

1996 Water levels measured at 2.14 meters (7.02 feet); flood dike overtopped 1.5 billion 49.4 million

2011 Maga Flood 1400 billion 45700 million

Aon Benfield (2012), “2011 Thailand Floods, Event Recap Report Impact Forecasting,” March 2012

Breakdown of Economic Losses

Sector Economic Losses (Billions THB) Comments

Manufacturing 1,007 Most losses sustained at industrial factories

Tourism 95 Loss of tourism revenues over a 6-month span

Households/Personal Property 84 Includes structural and indoor content

losses

Agriculture 40 Loss of agricultural production

Aon Benfield (2012), “2011 Thailand Floods, Event Recap Report Impact Forecasting,” March 2012

https://www.recordedfuture.com/historical-analysis-thailand-floods-in-2011-and-effects-on-the-global-supply-chain/

Timeline of Thai Flood 2011

Flooding Framework

Hilly Area

Coastal Area

w/river nearby

w/o river nearby

Flat Area

a) An Influence Diagram of Flood Event (Thailand) b) Different Types (Thailand)

Rainfall

High Tide

River Flow

Surface Runoff from

RiverRiver

Overflow

Surface Runoff from Higher Land

Total Flow (In)

Q-in

Ability of Drainage

Q-out

FloodingCondition,

h and t

What is Future Flood ? What is the risk of flood ?

What can we do ?

Risk Management Framework & Flooding

Establish The Context

Identify Risk

Analysis Risk

Evaluate Risk

Treat Risk

Ris

k Ass

essm

ent

Mo

nit

ori

ng

an

d R

evi

ew

Co

mm

un

icati

on

an

d C

on

sult

Risk Management Process

Analysis principles (qualitative)

HighRisk

MediumRisk

Low Risk

MediumRisk

Minor Major

Prob

able

Likeli

ho

od

Consequence

Impr

obab

le

Risks with A Range Of Outcomes

Residual Risks

Flood Risk Framework

Historical Data

FloodingModel

Land Use Information &

Scenario

Supply-Chain Analysis

Spatial Supply-Chain

Model

Climate Change Scenerio

Forecasting Flood Map

Activity Analysis

according to SC Approximate

Damage Function

Flood Risk Map from Supply-Chain

perspective

Flood Protection Infrastructure

How much should we invest for any flood protection system ?

Costs of Treatments

Cost of total protection is equal

Risk Treatment• Risk Avoidance, e.g. relocation

• Risk Reduction - Probability, e.g. flood protection infrastructure

• Risk Reduction - Impact, e.g. flood protection infrastructure, social adaptation, etc.

• Risk Transfer - e.g. insurance

• Residue Risk

Simplified Thailand’s Flood Map

Historical Base Flood Map

Expected Flood Prone Area

0.00 - 0.100.10 - 0.380.38 - 0.750.76 - 1.00

Simplified Thailand’s Supply Chain

Impact by volume of road

Automobile Sector

Rubber Sector

Steel Sector

Electronic Sector

Chemical Sector

Jewellery Sector

Rice Sector

Fishery Sector

Warehouse Sector

Plastic Sector

Thailand’s Rice Supply Chain

Rice Supply Chain

36

Supply Chain Disruption

37

38

Key Rice Field Areas

• 7.7 Million Farmers Participate • Export value 133 billion baht • Value creation added ~410%

Rice Sector

40

Pontential Supply

By analysing of centroid and shortest path and gravity model to form Expected Logistics Network of Rice Supply Chain

Case Study for Rice Supply Chain Disruption

• Approximate opportunity loss in chain = f (Holding cost, Alternative route cost, Value at Risk in chain cost, Halt production)

• For the three key areas ~ 77.2 m bath/day

PROVINCE Production (Metric Ton) average per day

Kamphaeng Phet 893,768 2,449Phichit 1,101,362 3,017

Nakhon Sawan 1,390,249 3,809 

Different sectors should have different protection systemห / risk

treatment facilities and instruments

opportunity loss and damage cost * probability of each scenarios vs.

cost of treatment plan

Climate Scenario

Projection

• Probability of bigger storm is expected higher.

• Pattern of rainfall is expected to be changed.

• Land-use and Infrastructure is also changed

Climate Change Flood

Infra -structure

Flood Risk

Land-use

What should we prepare for the Next Floods ?