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Food Nutrition in Eastern and Southern Africa
Agriculture Productivity Drivers
Christopher AurichtAustralian International Food Security Centre (AIFSC)
10th September 2012, Nairobi
CattleBuffaloPigs
Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 Peoplein 1998/99, Based on District Data1. Agriculture Productivity Drivers
Characteristics of the regionResources Population, crops and livestock
ElevationSlope, aspect, drainageSettlements, ports, marketsRoad, rail, river, ICT networksMarket travel times & costs
Hunger, Poverty & Productivity Spatial Covariates/Proxies & Analytical Flow
Port travel times & costs
Terrain, Demography,
Infrastructure, Admin Units
ProductionEnvironment &
Constraints
ProductionSystems &
Performance
Interventions/Responses
Agroecological ZonesCropland extent & intensityPests & Diseases (Maize Stem Borer)Drought Incidence & SeverityRunoffAdministrative Units Farming SystemsCrop Suitability: Rainfed Wheat
Crop Distribution & YieldsValue of Production per Rural Person
NA
010
2030
40
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
100 80 60 40 20 0
IrrigationThreshold
% of AvailableSoil Water
MaizeYield
Potentialt[DM]/ha
Fertilizer Application Ratekg[N]/ha
Yield Responses to Inputs, Management, CCProfitability of small scale irrigationQuantity of Nutrients RemovedFertilizer ProfitabilityDistribution of Welfare Benefits
Linkage toMacroModels
Aggregate to FPUs
Source: HarvestChoice 2010
3
CattleBuffaloPigs
Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 Peoplein 1998/99, Based on District Data2. Broad directions and drivers
OPPORTUNITY COSTS of resources (especially land) and labour shape farm household decision making and evolution of systems (Binswanger, Pingali)
In turn these are influenced by:• population, hunger and poverty• natural resources and climate• technology and science• energy• markets and trade• information and human capital• institutions and policies
CattleBuffaloPigs
Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 Peoplein 1998/99, Based on District DataDrivers – population, hunger, poverty
Gradual increase of population for centuries, until 1950, then rapid increase; + 30 percent over past decade (with shocks from disease and famine)
Urbanisation
Distribution of hunger and poverty (maps)
Incomes/livelihood portfolios
Gender
CattleBuffaloPigs
Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 Peoplein 1998/99, Based on District DataDriver – natural resources, climate
Claims of ample resources, but
Limited water so far exploited
Degradation
Closing of quality land frontier
Rapid deforestation
Climate change – precipitation, temperature; variability/risk)
CattleBuffaloPigs
Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 Peoplein 1998/99, Based on District DataDriver – energy
Limited growth in energy inputs (refer Binswanger, Pingali; McIntyre)
Linkages/correlations oil, fertilizer and food prices
Intensification requires energy
Local/renewable options?
CattleBuffaloPigs
Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 Peoplein 1998/99, Based on District DataDrivers – markets, trade
Spread of agricultural markets/infrastructure
Poor but improving market integration
Vertical integration especially in high potential
Foreign capital
Past focus on exports; growing potential for regional trade
CattleBuffaloPigs
Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 Peoplein 1998/99, Based on District DataDriver – information, human capital
New knowledge is essential for households to make good decisions on adoption, marketing adjustments, ... (capacity building)
Good example, Kenya ...
CattleBuffaloPigs
(Source: Dixon 2005)
Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 Peoplein 1998/99, Based on District Data3. Farming systems - informed interventions
Many assessments of African resource management, commodity and agricultural sector, but …
Low productivity and rural food insecurity and poverty persist
Strong differentiation of farming systems and farm-households’ potentials and needs
Understanding farm-household decision making for essential for fostering innovation and accelerating adoption/adjustment