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Christopher L. ClayAir Vehicles Directorate
Air Force Research Laboratory
CERTIFICATION BY ANALYSIS
Overview to FAA30 August 2001
2
By Analysis
Increasing reliance on analytical techniques
to achieve a more comprehensive
understanding of the system
in order to manage system risk better
Definition
Certification
A structured mechanism of identifying and reducing risk to insure a system is safe to
operate and meets performance goals
3
Goal
Reduce time and cost associated with
certification
4
Motivation
Coupon Element Testing
Panel and Critical Detail Testing
Critical Subcomponent Testing
Preproduction Verification Test Article
Static Test Article
Fatigue Test Article
Structural Building Block Testing
10’s of $M each block
5
Eliminate SurprisesIn Tests & In Field
Reduce Time and $$$
System
Acquisition
Reduce Tests
Transition Approach
Design Process
AnalysisCertification
High Fidelity/Risk Quantified
Methods
Research &
Development
Reliable PredictionsSystem Knowledge
6
Approach
Current Design Process Deficiencies• Slow and fragmented design process• “Over the wall” communications• Sequential processing
Design Process
AnalysisCertification
High Fidelity/Risk Quantified
Methods
Design Process• Rapid modeling Configuration management
• Object oriented Information/data management
7
Design Process
AnalysisCertification
High Fidelity/Risk Quantified
Methods
Approach
High Fidelity/Risk Quantified Methods Deficiencies• Uncertainty modeling in Structures and Aerodynamics• Understanding of the physics • Computationally intensive high fidelity methods
High Fidelity/Risk Quantified Methods
•Non-deterministic methods•Faster turn-around time
•ROM/Nonlinear methods
8
Approach
Analysis Certification Deficiencies• Modeling errors• Credibility of analytical results• Implementation of analysis• Human errors
Design Process
AnalysisCertification
High Fidelity/Risk Quantified
Methods
AnalysisCertification
• Expert systems•Benchmarking
•VV&A
9Seek EagleAFI 63-104
Technical Data
Certification ProcessAFMAN 63-119
Test Planning &Documentation
System Design &Performance
Test Assets &Support
Safety Reviews &
Certifications
OT&E Plan
Security Planning
Deficiency ID & Correction
Process
TEMP
Concept ofOperations
MaintenanceConcept
STAR
COEA
ORD
MNS
Schedule
Modeling & Simulation
Contractor Support
Test & EvalInfrastructure
Support Agreements
Personnel
Packaging, Handling &
Transportation
Test Team Training
Production Representative
Articles
Contractor Testing
Configuration Management
Plan
Deficiency Resolution
Sufficiency of Spares
Support Equipment
System Maturity
System Performance
Software Development
Live Fire Testing
Interoperability & Compatibility
Developmental Testing
Threat Systems
10
Fundamental Sciences & Empirical Data
CO
NT
RO
LS
AE
RO
DY
NA
MIC
S
SE
NS
OR
S
PR
OP
UL
SIO
NS
TR
UC
TU
RE
S WE
AP
ON
SConceptual Design
MISSION / ENGAGEMENT
CAMPAIGN
INTEGRATED DESIGN
Certification by AnalysisHorizontal and Vertical Integration
Preliminary Design
Detailed Design
REDUCETIME & COST
Sim based Acquisition Vehicle
Propulsion Aero Structures Control Subsystems
Tail Fuselage Wing
SkinsWing box
Spars Ribs
Bulkheads Skins
Certification by AnalysisBuilding Block Approach
Design Process
AnalysisCertification
High Fidelity/Risk Quantified
Methods
Applies to each block
12
Certification by AnalysisPlayers
• RTO – new WGs– Qualification by Analysis
– Integration of Tools and Processes for Affordable Weapons
– Reduction of Military Vehicle Acquisition Time & Cost Through Advanced Product Simulation
– Prior work published 1990
• NASA • FAA – Probability Analysis• DARPA – AIM
• AFRL– ML – Analytical Chemistry– PR – Probability Analysis– VA – Integration
• Other Industries– Nuclear power – cannot take
to failure– Nuclear arms – Test Ban
Treaty– Submarine – Similar to A/C– Civil Structure – One-of-a-kind,
SF – 100 yrs ago 3, today=2– Chemical - Analysis to
eliminate human specimens Under process. Source: Bill Moyers – PBS
13
4/12/2001
AIR VEHICLES DIRECTORATE
Sim based Acquisition
Vehicle
Propulsion Aero Structures Control Subsystems
Assess where do we fit in the process and what do can we impact significantly. Then – What are the analytical gaps associated withthe impact points?
Tail Fuselage Wing
SkinsWing box
Spars Ribs
Bulkheads Skins
Certification by AnalysisBuilding Block Approach
Summary
2
AIR VEHICLES DIRECTORATE
Goal
Reduce time and cost associated
with certification
9
AIR VEHICLES DIRECTORATE
Approach
Design Process
AnalysisCertification
High Fidelity &Risk Quantified
Methods
Risk reduction, design driven process that we can impact by fully utilizing technologies such as uncertainty analysis and ROM resulting in a
reduction in the dependence on testing and increasing our design capabilities - instilling
innovation and freedom.
Backups
15
IPT Structure
Advisory GroupAFRL/VA – Chair
AFRL/PRAFRL/MNSeek EagleAF/TEASC/ENSAF/AQALC
NavyFAABoeingLMCONG
Integrating IPTAFRL/VA – Chair
Chairs from each of the IPT + a design environments and
process POC
OthersControls Aero
PropulsionAirframes Stores
Working Groups
16
Advisory Group
Advisory GroupAFRL/VA – Chair
AFRL/PRAFRL/MN
AF/TEASC/ENSAF/AQALC
Navy N/ N/FAABoeingLMCONG
IPTAFRL/VA – Chair
Chairs from each of the IPT + a design environments and process POC
OthersControls Aero
PropulsionAirframes Stores
Chair – Dr Don Paul, AFRL/VA
AFRL/PR – Dr Alan GarscaddenAFRL/MN – Mr Stephen KornSeek Eagle - Dr. William Dyess, Jr AF/TE – Mr John T Manclark or
Mr David HamiltonASC/EN – Dr John W LincolnSAF/AQ – Dr Don DanielALC – Navy Test and Evaluation Staff (AIR 5.0C) Air Vehicle (AIR 4.3) Airworthiness (AIR 4.0P)FAABoeing – Dr James MarkLMCO – Mr Kevin ImotoNG – Mr Jerry Lockenour
17
IPTs
Advisory GroupAFRL/VA – Chair
AFRL/PRAFRL/MN
AF/TEASC/ENSAF/AQALC
Navy N/ N/FAABoeingLMCONG
Overarching IPTAFRL/VA – Chair
Chairs from each of the IPT + a design environments and process POC
OthersControls Aero
PropulsionAirframes Stores
Lead –
Team:
18
Overarching IPT
Advisory GroupAFRL/VA – Chair
AFRL/PRAFRL/MN
AF/TEASC/ENSAF/AQALC
Navy N/ N/FAABoeingLMCONG
Overarching IPTAFRL/VA – Chair
Chairs from each of the IPT + a design environments and process POC
OthersControls Aero
PropulsionAirframes Stores
CoChairs – Drs Don Paul and Duane Veley
Airframe IPT Lead – Propulsion IPT Lead – Stores IPT Lead – Controls IPT Lead – Aero IPT Lead – Design Environments and Process Lead –
Industry Advisors -
Air VehiclesFuture Technologies Workshops
Chris ClayAir Force Research Laboratory
20
Workshop I17-18 Jan 01
Eglin AFB
Workshop II22-23 May 01
Colorado Springs
Workshop III18-19 Sep 01
Wright-Patt AFB
Understand the Air Force Capability Needs
Assess & Link AF Capability Needs with Aerospace Vehicle Concepts
Identify Technology Programs to Support Concepts & Capability Needs
Capabilities Needed
Concepts
POMInvestment
PlanCyclic Process
Workshop Process
Inputs from:Air Force (AF Strat Plan & Majcom MAPs, etc.), other Gov’t, Academia,
Industry
Scenarios
Throughout Process
MOEs
Methods
21
INVITED ORGANIZATIONS
• ACC, AC2ISRC, AFMC, AFSOC, AFSPC, AMC• AFRL (CC, XP, AFOSR, and all Tech Directorates)• ASC, ESC, SMC, HSW, AEDC• USAF/XP, USAF/XO, SAF/AQR, DDR&E• NASA• Scientific Advisory Board• NAIC• US Army TRADOC• NASC, NAWC• Battle Labs• Boeing, Lockheed-Martin, Northrop Grumman, Orbital Sciences,
Allison, General Electric, Honeywell, Pratt & Whitney, Raytheon
22
WORKSHOP IITOP CONCEPT CATEGORIES
• Global Power– Strike UAVs– Long-Range Deep Strike Aircraft– Mach 5+ UCAV– Directed Energy Tactical Aircraft– Airborne Carrier
• Global Vigilance– High-Altitude Long Endurance ISR Platforms– Recce/Strike UAVs– Cooperative/Persistent Surveillance Strike Vehicles– Unattended Battlespace Sensors
• Global Reach– Strategic Airlifter– Tactical Airlifter– Tanker– Space Operations Vehicle
• CSAR and Special Ops– Cargo-class SSTOL/VSTOL– CSAR/Special Ops Precision Engagement UAVs
23
WORKSHOP IITOP CONCEPT CATEGORIES
• Global Power– Strike UAVs – Long-Range Deep Strike Aircraft – Mach 5+ UCAV– Directed Energy Tactical Aircraft – Airborne Carrier
• Global Vigilance– High-Altitude Long Endurance ISR Platforms – Recce/Strike UAVs – Cooperative/Persistent Surveillance Strike Vehicles – Unattended Battlespace Sensors
• Global Reach– Strategic Airlifter – Tactical Airlifter – Tanker – Space Operations Vehicle
• CSAR and Special Ops– Cargo-class SSTOL/VSTOL – CSAR/Special Ops Precision Engagement UAVs
24
Workshop IV – The next step
– Goals
• Energize research community on critical research needs of the Air Force
– Educate academic community on Workshops I-III
• Translate technical challenges from Workshop III into basic science issues
• Identify opportunities for new or additional research
25
Workshop Schedule
• Multidisciplinary Technologies– 9th AIAA MOA Conference, 4-6 Sept, Atlanta GA
• Air Vehicles Controls Technologies– 2002 IEEE Conference on Decision & Control, 10-13 Dec, Las
Vegas NV
• Aeronautical Sciences Technologies– 41st Aerospace Sciences Meeting, 6-9 Jan 2003, Reno NV
• Air Vehicles Structures Technologies– 44th Structures, Structural Dynamics, and Materials Conference,
7-10 April 2003, Norfolk VA
26
Draft Outline
Introduction Dr. Jeff Tromp 1330 – 1335
Operator's View of Air Mr. Dave Leggett 1335 – 1420Vehicles Future Technologies
Air Vehicles StructuresResearch Needs Dr. Dave Pratt 1420 – 1450
Dr. Larry Byrd 1450 – 1520
Mr. Mike Spottswood 1520 – 1550
Mr. Bill Baron 1550 – 1620
Group discussion Dr. Dave Pratt 1620 – 1700