Upload
vadin
View
35
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Fleet Numerical Meteorology & Oceanography Center TCC 29-30 April 2009. GFDN 2009. Chuck Skupniewicz Models (N34M) FNMOC Operations Dept. The GFDN Team Carey Dickerman, FNMOC lead Roger Stocker, FNMOC Isaac Ginnis, URI Morris Bender, GFDL. Fleet Numerical…. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
1
Chuck Skupniewicz Models (N34M)FNMOC Operations Dept
Fleet Numerical Meteorology & Oceanography Center
TCC
29-30 April 2009
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
GFDN 2009
The GFDN TeamCarey Dickerman, FNMOC leadRoger Stocker, FNMOCIsaac Ginnis, URIMorris Bender, GFDL
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
2
Old vs New GFDN: Comparison of Main Features
GFDN GF3C
Ocean Coupling none POM (3-D)
Nests ½°, 1/6° 1/2°, 1/6°, 1/12°
Grid domain 75 X 75°, 11 X 11°Fixed moving
75 X 75°, 11X 11°, 5 X 5°Fixed moving moving
Dissipative Heating none Added to Core Region
Microphysics Large-scale Condensation NCEP Ferrier Upgrade
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
3
ATMOSPHERE
OCEAN
Warm sea surface temperature
Cool subsurface temperature
Ocean response to hurricane forcing:Ocean response to hurricane forcing:1. Vertical mixing/entrainment1. Vertical mixing/entrainmentWind stress → surface layer currentsCurrent shear → turbulence
Turbulent mixing → entrainment of cooler water
Sea surface temperature decreases
Subsurface temperature increases
This is a 1-D (vertical) processfrom Ginnis et al., “Developing Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Wave-Ocean Models for Transition to Operations”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference,
St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
4
Cyclonichurricane
vortex
ATMOSPHERE
OCEAN
Warm sea surface temperature
Cool subsurface temperature
Ocean response to hurricane forcing:Ocean response to hurricane forcing:2. Upwelling2. UpwellingCyclonic wind stress → divergent surface currentsDivergent currents → upwelling
Upwelling → cooler water brought to surface
This is a 3-D processfrom Ginnis et al., “Developing Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Wave-Ocean Models for Transition to Operations”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference,
St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
5
Hurricanes have historically translated Hurricanes have historically translated in the Gulf of Mexico:in the Gulf of Mexico:< 5 m s< 5 m s-1-1 73% and < 2 m s 73% and < 2 m s-1-1 16% of the time 16% of the time
in the western tropical North Atlanticin the western tropical North Atlanticat < 5 m sat < 5 m s-1-1 62% and < 2 m s 62% and < 2 m s-1-1 12% of the time 12% of the time
SST cooling within hurricane inner-core in 3D and 1D ocean models
from Ginnis et al., “Developing Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Wave-Ocean Models for Transition to Operations”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference,
St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
6
1-D Coupling 3-D Coupling
Typhoon Cimaron: November 2nd , 0000 UTC, 2006 Demonstrates Importance of Upwelling for Slow Moving Storm
HOUR 0
HOUR 120 HOUR 120
1-D Coupling 3-D Coupling
HOUR 0
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
7
Significantly Improved Prediction of Track and Intensity( Typhoon Cimaron: November 2nd , 0000 UTC, 2006)
1 3-D OCEAN COUPLING
2 2006 OPERATIONAL GFDN
3 1-D OCEAN COUPLING
MAXIMUM WINDS
CENTRAL PRESSURE
3-D Coupling
3-D Coupling
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
8
Northern Indian Ocean - io012008Northern Indian Ocean - io012008North Atlantic - al022008North Atlantic - al022008North Eastern Pacific - ep022008, ep052008North Eastern Pacific - ep022008, ep052008Southern Hemisphere - sh232008, sh262008, sh282008Southern Hemisphere - sh232008, sh262008, sh282008Northwestern Pacific - wp042005, wp212005, wp042006, wp112006, wp212006, wp222006, wp052007, wp072007, wp072008Northwestern Pacific - wp042005, wp212005, wp042006, wp112006, wp212006, wp222006, wp052007, wp072007, wp072008
GFDN Forecast Performance: Intensity Forecast Validation against “Old”
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
9
Northern Indian Ocean - io012008Northern Indian Ocean - io012008North Atlantic - al022008North Atlantic - al022008North Eastern Pacific - ep022008, ep052008North Eastern Pacific - ep022008, ep052008Southern Hemisphere - sh232008, sh262008, sh282008Southern Hemisphere - sh232008, sh262008, sh282008Northwestern Pacific - wp042005, wp212005, wp042006, wp112006, wp212006, wp222006, wp052007, wp072007, wp072008Northwestern Pacific - wp042005, wp212005, wp042006, wp112006, wp212006, wp222006, wp052007, wp072007, wp072008
GFDN Forecast Performance:Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (ST5D) Validation
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
10
Northern Indian Ocean - io012008Northern Indian Ocean - io012008North Atlantic - al022008North Atlantic - al022008North Eastern Pacific - ep022008, ep052008North Eastern Pacific - ep022008, ep052008Southern Hemisphere - sh232008, sh262008, sh282008Southern Hemisphere - sh232008, sh262008, sh282008Northwestern Pacific - wp042005, wp212005, wp042006, wp112006, wp212006, wp222006, wp052007, wp072007, wp072008Northwestern Pacific - wp042005, wp212005, wp042006, wp112006, wp212006, wp222006, wp052007, wp072007, wp072008
GFDN Forecast Performance: Tracks
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
11
IMPROVED TRACK AND INTENSITY SKILL AT ALL TIME LEVELS FOR SELECTED WPAC CASES
(2005-2007)AVERAGE TRACK SKILL AVERAGE INTENSITY SKILL
from Bender et al., “Upgrades to the GFDN model for 2009 and Beyond”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
12
GFDN STATUS - TODAY
• Operational on A2 since Oct 2008.
• Atlantic: 3-D Princeton Ocean Model (POM) forecast with GDEM ocean climatology initialization. NOGAPS (NCODA low resolution) SST analysis.
• Pacific: 1-D POM with 3-D NCODA analysis initialization. NCODA high resolution SST analysis.
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
13
GFDN STATUS – June 2009
• Adding Asymmetry Factor. DONE. Operational in January.
• Adding altimetry data assimilation for Atlantic to define Gulf of Mexico Loop Current. DONE Operational in April.
• With University of Rhode Island, adding POM-3D in the Pacific. Delivery in March. Operational in May.
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
14
OVERALL REDUCED INTENSITY ERRORS WITH 3-D COUPLING COMPARED TO 1-D
1-D GFDN
3-D GFDN
3-D GFDN
1-D GFDN
from Bender et al., “Upgrades to the GFDN model for 2009 and Beyond”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
15
REDUCED TRACK ERRORS IN DAYS 4 AND 5WITH 3-D COUPLING
OLD GFDN
from Bender et al., “Upgrades to the GFDN model for 2009 and Beyond”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
16
ISSUES
• Joint JTWC / FNOC review of SOPs (in progress)
• Need an independent review of GFDN upgrades by JTWC.
• Need to watch GFDL vs GFDN (GFS vs NOGAPS)
• NOAA has stopped funding for GFDL. FNMOC relies on GFDL/URI developers for maintenance.
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
17
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
24 48 72 96 120
OPSNAV/AR
2008 Northern HemisphereHomogeneous TC Forecast Error (nm)
01 August 2008 – 17 September 2008
150 116 86 Number of Forecasts68 50
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
18
GFDN DONEBACKUP SLIDES FOLLOW
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
19
Atmospheric Boundary LayerAtmospheric Boundary Layer
Momentum & KE Flux
Turbulence Sea Spray
BubblesMomentum & KE Flux
Nonbreaking Waves Breaking Waves
Wave induced stress
Reynolds stress
(Langmuir) Turbulence
Air-Sea Interface
Heat & Humidity Flux
Airflow separationIntermittency
Intermittency ofMomentum & KE injection
Stokes drift
Ocean Boundary LayerOcean Boundary Layer
MORE PHYSICSMORE PHYSICS TO COMETO COME
from Ginnis et al., “Developing Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Wave-Ocean Models for Transition to Operations”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference,
St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
20
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
24 48 72 96 120
NGPIAVNIGFDIGFNIEGRIHWFIEMXIAEMITVCNOFCL
2008 AtlanticNon-Homogeneous TC Forecast Error (nm)
314 251 204 Number of Forecasts160 131from Goerss, J., “Ensemble, Corrected Consensus, and Weighted Consensus TC Track Forecasts”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St.
Petersburg, FL, 2009.
Interpolated Model GuidanceAVNI – Global Forecast System (GFS) run at NCEP
GFDI – GFDL model run at NCEP
HWFI – Hurricane WRF run at NCEP
NGPI – Navy global model (NOGAPS) run at FNMOC
GFNI – GFDL model run at FNMOC
EGRI – UK Met Office global model
EMXI – ECMWF global model
TVCN – Consensus of above models (at least two)
AEMI – NCEP GFS ensemble mean
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
21
050
100150200250300350400450500
24 48 72 96 120
NGPIAVNIGFDIGFNIEGRIHWFIEMXIAEMITVCNOFCL
2008 Eastern North PacificNon-Homogeneous TC Forecast Error (nm)
238 178 130 Number of Forecasts90 57from Goerss, J., “Ensemble, Corrected Consensus, and Weighted Consensus TC Track Forecasts”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St.
Petersburg, FL, 2009.
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
22
NCEP COMPARISON: Apples to Oranges
The following is from storm AL172008, which was an early November 2008 TC. It's the one AL storm with some history that was forecast by the OPAL OPS GFDN.
FORECAST VERIFICATION RESULTS
AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS (NM) FOR HOMOGENEOUS SAMPLE• 00 12 24 36 48 72 96 120• GFDN 6.4 34.0 63.1 96.2 119.1 167.1 147.1 0.0• GFDL 6.0 43.8 63.5 74.4 82.5 111.6 262.5 0.0• #CASES 14 14 12 10 8 4 1 0
AVERAGE INTENSITY ERRORS (KT) FOR HOMOGENEOUS SAMPLEAVERAGE INTENSITY ERRORS (KT) FOR HOMOGENEOUS SAMPLE 00 12 24 36 48 72 96 12000 12 24 36 48 72 96 120• GFDN 12.7 18.8 25.6 33.5 37.9 16.0 27.0 0.0GFDN 12.7 18.8 25.6 33.5 37.9 16.0 27.0 0.0• GFDL 9.2 20.6 18.3 14.8 14.4 26.0 39.0 0.0GFDL 9.2 20.6 18.3 14.8 14.4 26.0 39.0 0.0• NCHG 0.0 24.6 43.3 51.5 53.1 40.0 5.0 0.0NCHG 0.0 24.6 43.3 51.5 53.1 40.0 5.0 0.0• #CASES 14 14 12 10 8 4 1 0#CASES 14 14 12 10 8 4 1 0
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
23
2008 Western PacificHomogeneous TC Forecast Error (nm)
(UKMet)
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
24
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
Nau
tical
Mile
s
96 Hour 5 Year Ave
120 Hour 5 Year Ave
JTWC TRACK ERRORS(WESTPAC - 96-120 Hours)
96 Hr 120 Hr2004 206 2752005 212 2632006 216 3092007 187 2142008 301 447Goal 200 250
from Falvey et al., JTWC 2008 Report, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
25
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
Nau
tical
Mile
s
96 Hour 5 Year Ave
120 Hour 5 Year Ave
JTWC TRACK ERRORS(WESTPAC - 96-120 Hours)
96 Hr 120 Hr2004 206 2752005 212 2632006 216 3092007 187 2142008 301 447Goal 200 250
from Falvey et al., JTWC 2008 Report, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
26
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
1987 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
Erro
r (kt
s)
24 Hr48 Hr72 Hr96 Hr120 Hr
JTWC INTENSITY ERRORS
(WESTPAC 24 - 120 Hours) 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr 96Hr 120Hr2004 11 17 21 23 262005 12 18 24 25 252006 13 17 20 22 242007 13 18 20 24 262008 12 19 21 22 28
from Falvey et al., JTWC 2008 Report, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.