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© CIBC 2009 All Rights Reserved 1 SAS Global Forum 2009 For what matters. Paper 131-2009 Case Study Risk Management: Risk Management: Using the SAS Platform at CIBC Using the SAS Platform at CIBC Rick Miller Rick Miller Vice Vice - - President, Credit Risk Data Solutions President, Credit Risk Data Solutions Risk Management, CIBC Risk Management, CIBC Financial Services SAS Global Forum 2009

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  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    1SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Paper 1

    31

    -20

    09 C

    ase Study

    Risk M

    anagem

    ent:

    Risk M

    anagem

    ent:

    Usin

    g the SA

    S Platform

    at CIB

    CU

    sing th

    e SAS P

    latform at C

    IBC

    Rick M

    illerR

    ick Miller

    Vice

    Vice- -P

    resident, C

    redit Risk D

    ata Solution

    sP

    resident, C

    redit Risk D

    ata Solution

    sR

    isk Man

    agemen

    t, CIB

    CR

    isk Man

    agemen

    t, CIB

    C

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    2SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Disclaim

    er

    Any views, opinions, advice, statem

    ents, or other information or

    content

    expressed or implied in the follow

    ing presentation are solely those of the

    presenter and do not necessarily state or reflect the views, positions, or

    opinion of

    Canadian Im

    perial Bank of

    Comm

    erce (CIBC)

    or any

    of its

    subsidiaries or affiliates.

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

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    For what m

    atters.

    Todays Discu

    ssion

    A

    Brief O

    verview of th

    e Basel II Fram

    ework

    In

    creased Spotlight on

    Credit R

    isk Data

    K

    ey Data C

    hallen

    ges

    Th

    e Journ

    ey Ah

    ead

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

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    4SA

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    For what m

    atters.

    Abou

    t CIB

    C

    Can

    adian Im

    perial Ban

    k of Com

    merce (C

    IBC

    ) is a leading

    North

    Am

    erican Fin

    ancial in

    stitution

    w

    e offer a full ran

    ge of products an

    d services to almost

    11

    million

    individu

    als and sm

    all busin

    esses, corporate and

    institu

    tional clien

    ts

    A

    t year-end (O

    ctober 31

    , 20

    08

    ):

    Market capitalization

    was $

    20

    .8 billion

    Tier 1

    capital ratio was 1

    0.5

    %

    employed n

    early 40

    ,00

    0 em

    ployees worldw

    ide

    had 1

    ,05

    0 bran

    ches in

    Can

    ada and m

    ore than

    3,7

    00

    AB

    Ms

    con

    stituen

    t of the D

    ow Jon

    es Sustain

    ability Index (D

    JSI)for seven

    consecu

    tive years (one of 2

    5 ban

    ks worldw

    ide)

    All am

    oun

    ts in C

    $

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

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    atters.

    The B

    asel II Framew

    ork Goals

    Pillar I

    Calcu

    lation of

    Min

    imu

    m

    Capital

    Requ

    iremen

    ts

    Pillar IIS

    elf-A

    ssessmen

    t an

    dSu

    pervisoryR

    eview

    Pillar III

    Disclosu

    rean

    dM

    arketD

    iscipline

    Credit R

    iskO

    perational R

    iskM

    arket Risk

    a global fram

    ework issu

    ed by Ban

    k of Intern

    ational

    Settlemen

    ts (BIS) an

    d man

    aged by nation

    al supervisors

    developed over th

    e period 19

    99

    2

    00

    5 w

    ith broad

    consu

    ltation globally alon

    g with

    quan

    titative impact stu

    dies

    Th

    e Basel II C

    omm

    ittee Goals w

    ere:

    to enh

    ance risk sen

    sitivity of capital requirem

    ents

    greater em

    phasis on

    banks ow

    n assessm

    ent of risk

    im

    prove transparen

    cy for market disciplin

    e

    B

    asel II was im

    plemen

    ted Novem

    ber 1, 2

    00

    7 by C

    IBC

    and

    other m

    ajor banks in

    Can

    ada

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

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    atters.

    The B

    asel II Framew

    ork

    Pillar I

    Calcu

    lation of

    Min

    imu

    m

    Capital

    Requ

    iremen

    ts

    Pillar II

    Self-

    Assessm

    ent

    and

    SupervisoryR

    eview

    Pillar III

    Disclosu

    rean

    dM

    arketD

    iscipline

    Credit R

    iskO

    perational R

    iskM

    arket Risk

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

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    7SA

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    For what m

    atters.

    Distribu

    tion of C

    redit Risk

    Defau

    lt Ratin

    g

    E x p o s u r e ( $ )

    Bank A

    Bank B

    Best

    Worst

    Corporate

    Loan P

    ortfolio

    assu

    me credit portfolio size is iden

    tical for both ban

    ksbu

    t with

    a different m

    ix of credit risk

    ILLUSTR

    ATIV

    E

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

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    atters.

    Previou

    s CA

    R: N

    o Differen

    tiation

    U

    nder previou

    s Capital A

    dequacy ru

    les, both portfolios

    wou

    ld require th

    e same am

    oun

    t of min

    imu

    m regu

    latory capital

    ILLUSTR

    ATIV

    E

    TotalC

    apital

    ExposuresC

    AR 1

    ( $ )

    Bank ABank B

    Corporate

    Loan P

    ortfolio

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

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    atters.

    Basel II: R

    isk Sensitive, M

    ore Capital

    Th

    e strategic implication

    is that ban

    ks with

    riskier portfoliosw

    ill have h

    igher m

    inim

    um

    regulatory capital requ

    iremen

    ts

    ILLUSTR

    ATIV

    EA

    IRB

    Approach

    TotalC

    apitalC

    apital

    Exposures

    CA

    R 1

    Basel II

    ( $ )

    Bank A

    Bank B

    Corporate

    Loan P

    ortfolio

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

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    atters.

    Basel II G

    lossary: Credit R

    isk Capital

    Th

    e Basel II Fram

    ework allow

    s the u

    se of bank-specific

    estimates of risk com

    ponen

    ts in determ

    inin

    g the capital

    compon

    ent for a given

    exposure:

    P

    robability of default (P

    D)

    Exposu

    re at default (EA

    D)

    Loss given

    default (LG

    D)

    Effective m

    aturity

    Firm

    -size adjustm

    ent for Sm

    all Mediu

    m En

    terprises (SME)

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

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    For what m

    atters.

    Basel II G

    lossary: Credit R

    isk Capital

    Expected Loss (EL) =

    PD

    * EA

    D *

    LGD

    U

    nexpected Loss (U

    L) calculated u

    sing soph

    isticated Basel II

    formu

    lae incorporatin

    g PD

    , EAD

    , LGD

    Loss

    Probability of D

    efault

    Un

    expectedloss

    Expected loss

    99

    .9th

    percentile

    of loss

    m

    inim

    um

    regulatory capital is a fu

    nction

    of the calcu

    lationof u

    nexpected loss (U

    L) and expected loss (EL)

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

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    12SA

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    For what m

    atters.

    Basel II: Th

    ree Option

    s for Credit R

    isk

    Standardized

    Approach

    More Strin

    gent Q

    ualifyin

    g Criteria

    M o r e S o p h i s t i c a t i o n a n d R i s k S e n s i t i v i t y

    STAN

    DA

    RD

    IZED A

    PP

    RO

    AC

    H

    sim

    ilar to existing B

    IS88

    m

    ore gradations of risk

    ban

    ks can u

    se external credit ratin

    gs

    som

    e capital relief for credit riskm

    itigation (e.g., collateral)

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

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    13SA

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    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Basel II: Th

    ree Option

    s for Credit R

    isk

    Foun

    dation

    Intern

    al Ratin

    gs B

    ased Approach

    Standardized

    Approach

    FOU

    ND

    ATIO

    N IN

    TERN

    AL R

    ATIN

    GS

    BA

    SED A

    PP

    RO

    AC

    H (FIR

    B)

    based on

    intern

    al data and risk ratin

    gs

    ban

    ks use th

    eir own

    estimates of:

    Probability of D

    efault (P

    D)

    su

    pervisors provide estimates for:

    Loss Given

    Defau

    lt (LGD

    ) and

    Exposure A

    t Defau

    lt (EAD

    )

    expected M

    inim

    um

    requirem

    ent for

    intern

    ationally active ban

    ks

    M o r e S o p h i s t i c a t i o n a n d R i s k S e n s i t i v i t y

    More Strin

    gent Q

    ualifyin

    g Criteria

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

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    14SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Basel II: Th

    ree Option

    s for Credit R

    isk

    Foun

    dation

    Intern

    al Ratin

    gs B

    ased Approach

    Standardized

    Approach

    AD

    VA

    NC

    ED IN

    TERN

    AL R

    ATIN

    GS

    BA

    SED A

    PP

    RO

    AC

    H (A

    IRB

    )

    based on

    intern

    al data and risk ratin

    gs

    ban

    ks use th

    eir own

    estimates of:

    Probability of D

    efault (P

    D)

    Loss Given

    Defau

    lt (LGD

    )Exposu

    re at Defau

    lt (EAD

    )

    com

    plex and in

    ternation

    ally activeban

    ks encou

    raged to move to th

    isapproach

    Advan

    ced In

    ternal R

    atings

    Based A

    pproach

    (AIR

    B)

    M o r e S o p h i s t i c a t i o n a n d R i s k S e n s i t i v i t y

    More Strin

    gent Q

    ualifyin

    g Criteria

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

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    15SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Basel II: Th

    ree Option

    s for Credit R

    isk

    Foun

    dation

    Intern

    al Ratin

    gs B

    ased Approach

    Standardised

    Approach

    B

    anks m

    ust m

    eet broadrisk-qu

    antification

    standards

    for own

    estimates of P

    D,

    LGD

    , EAD

    B

    anks m

    ust h

    ave a robust

    system in

    place to validate the

    accuracy an

    d consisten

    cy of:-

    rating system

    s, -

    processes, and

    -estim

    ation of all relevan

    trisk com

    ponen

    ts

    Su

    pervisor expects all major

    Can

    adian ban

    ks to implem

    ent

    AIR

    B

    Advan

    ced In

    ternal R

    atings

    Based A

    pproach

    (AIR

    B)

    M o r e S o p h i s t i c a t i o n a n d R i s k S e n s i t i v i t y

    More Strin

    gent Q

    ualifyin

    g Criteria

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

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    16SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Basel II G

    lossary: Exposure C

    lasses

    un

    der the IR

    B approach

    , banks m

    ust categorize ban

    king-book

    exposures in

    to broad classes of assets, specifically:

    C

    OR

    PO

    RA

    TE

    SOV

    EREIG

    N

    BA

    NK

    R

    ETAIL

    R

    esidential Secu

    red

    Qu

    alifying R

    evolving R

    etail

    All O

    ther R

    etail

    EQU

    ITIES (non

    -traded)

    th

    e work h

    ere was focu

    sed on en

    surin

    g that th

    e identifiers to

    classify exposures w

    ere available, accurate, com

    plete, and

    persistent in

    the sou

    rce data

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

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    17SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Basel II G

    lossary: Exposure Types

    addition

    al granu

    larity of reporting u

    sing cou

    nterparty type

    Credit Exposu

    resby type for the period ending...

    (Canadian $ millions)

    Draw

    nU

    ndrawn

    Repo style

    transaction

    sO

    TC

    derivativesO

    ther

    TOTA

    L

    Residential secured

    xxxxxx

    xxxxxx

    xxxxxx

    Qualifying revolving retail

    xxxxxx

    xxxxxx

    xxxxxx

    Other R

    etailxxx

    xxxxxx

    xxxxxx

    xxx

    Corporatexxx

    xxxxxx

    xxxxxx

    xxx

    Sovereignxxx

    xxxxxx

    xxxxxx

    xxx

    Bankxxx

    xxxxxx

    xxxxxx

    xxx

    Total Gross Credit R

    isk Exposuresxxx

    xxxxxx

    xxxxxx

    xxx

    ILLUSTR

    ATIV

    E

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

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    18SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Data M

    ainten

    ance Focu

    s by Regu

    lators

    Implem

    entation

    Note by th

    e Can

    adian su

    pervisor (OSFI),

    Data M

    ainten

    ance at IR

    B In

    stitution

    s

    provides general gu

    idance on

    data main

    tenan

    ce an

    d principles to apply

    su

    pervisor will m

    onitor on

    going data m

    ainten

    ance

    complian

    ce

    D

    ata Main

    tenan

    ce Prin

    ciples inclu

    de guidan

    ce on:

    Sen

    ior Man

    agemen

    t Oversigh

    t Accou

    ntabilities

    D

    ata Life-Cycle M

    anagem

    ent

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

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    19SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    So, Wh

    at Is the P

    rize?

    regu

    latory complian

    ce is critical

    for C

    IBC

    s mix of bu

    siness, u

    sing th

    e Basel II A

    IRB

    approachresu

    lts in a sm

    alloverall reduction

    of capital for credit risk

    for lin

    e of busin

    ess operations, ties th

    e allocation an

    d use

    of regulatory capital to th

    e risk profile of the bu

    siness

    prom

    otes an en

    terprise-wide focu

    s on th

    e importan

    ce ofaccu

    rate and com

    plete risk data

    in

    troduces form

    al requirem

    ents for back testin

    gan

    dstress testin

    gof ratin

    g systems an

    d parameter estim

    atesto su

    pplemen

    t and en

    han

    ce existing practices

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

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    20SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    CIB

    C C

    ase Study

    G

    etting Started

    D

    eveloping P

    arameter Estim

    ates

    C

    alculatin

    g Basel II R

    egulatory C

    apital

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

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    21SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    CIB

    C C

    ase Study: W

    here W

    e Started

    developed a broad u

    nderstan

    ding of th

    e Basel II Fram

    ework

    requirem

    ents

    assessed w

    hat already existed, in

    terms of:

    P

    eople

    Processes

    D

    ata

    Systems / tools

    developed a gap an

    alysisan

    d secured sen

    ior man

    agemen

    tsu

    pport and fu

    ndin

    g for projects to close the gaps

    strategy w

    as to leverage existing capability, w

    herever possible

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

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    22SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    u

    se the B

    asel II Framew

    ork docum

    ent to u

    nderstan

    d and

    then

    define th

    e man

    datory risk data

    create a logical m

    odel to consolidate an

    d organise

    the data

    determ

    ine w

    here th

    e data exists and iden

    tify any data gaps

    en

    han

    ce systems to collect an

    d store the requ

    ired data

    h

    armon

    isedifferen

    t data definition

    s throu

    gh th

    e application

    of busin

    ess logic

    im

    plemen

    t a data main

    tenan

    ce framew

    ork to inclu

    de:

    risk data stewardsh

    ip roles & respon

    sibilities

    data standards for accu

    racy, completen

    ess, timelin

    ess

    data controls, m

    easurem

    ent, an

    d mon

    itoring

    data secu

    rity and access

    The D

    ata Approach

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

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    23SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Differen

    t Credit R

    isk Data C

    hallen

    gesC

    OR

    PO

    RA

    TE, SOV

    EREIG

    N,

    BA

    NK

    , EXP

    OSU

    RE C

    LASSES

    RETA

    IL EXP

    OSU

    RE

    CLA

    SSES

    VIEW

    OF

    CR

    EDIT R

    ISKB

    orrower-cen

    tric(across all org u

    nits an

    d all produ

    cts)

    Produ

    ct-centric

    (hom

    ogeneou

    s pools)

    ASSIG

    NM

    ENT O

    F R

    ISK P

    AR

    AM

    ETERS

    Assign

    ed to each borrow

    erA

    ssigned to each

    pool

    EXP

    OSU

    RE

    DIM

    ENSIO

    NS

    Large auth

    orization /

    outstan

    ding balan

    ces per borrow

    er -m

    ultiple facilities

    Small au

    thorization

    / ou

    tstandin

    g balances

    BO

    RR

    OW

    ER

    VO

    LUM

    EH

    un

    dreds of thou

    sands

    Man

    y million

    s

    RA

    TING

    SYSTEM

    SR

    equires soph

    isticated risk ratin

    gsystem

    sR

    equires less

    complex credit

    scoring

    REC

    ON

    CILIA

    TION

    : EX

    PO

    SUR

    ES TO G

    /LC

    hallen

    ging across exposu

    re classes an

    d exposure types

    More straigh

    tforward

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

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    24SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Key C

    hallen

    ges: Credit R

    isk Data

    sign

    ificant am

    oun

    t of data is required

    requ

    ire nu

    merou

    s feeds from differen

    t kinds of sou

    rce system

    s

    state of cu

    rrent credit risk data

    h

    ow to recon

    cile credit risk balances origin

    ating in

    these

    disparate systems to th

    e Gen

    eral Ledger

    system

    s constrain

    ts / timin

    g

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    25SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Wh

    at Data D

    o We N

    eed?

    Borrow

    er / Gu

    arantor

    Identity

    Risk R

    ating /

    Scoring M

    odels

    Basel II C

    apitalC

    alculation

    s

    Risk

    Weigh

    ted Assets

    (RW

    A)

    Param

    eterEstim

    ates(P

    D, LG

    D, EA

    D)

    Econom

    icLoss H

    istoryExtern

    alC

    reditA

    ssessmen

    ts

    Borrow

    er / Gu

    arantor

    Ch

    aracteristics

    ExpectedLoss

    Facility Info

    Collateral

    Ch

    aracteristics

    Basel II

    Exposure

    Classes

    Borrow

    erD

    efault

    Ratin

    gs

    EffectiveM

    aturity

    Credit R

    iskM

    itigationExposu

    res

    decom

    pose Basel II Fram

    ework clau

    ses into m

    andatory

    credit risk data for AIR

    B com

    pliance

    ILLUSTR

    ATIV

    E

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    26SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Wh

    ere To Look For The D

    ata

    Credit

    Adju

    dicationC

    reditA

    pplication

    Fulfillm

    ent

    and

    Operation

    s

    Mon

    itoring

    and

    Reportin

    g

    ILLUSTR

    ATIV

    E

    (1) in

    itialdata captu

    re,verification

    ,validation

    (2) approve

    terms an

    dcon

    ditions

    (e.g., limits,

    default ratin

    gs)

    (3) bookin

    g,m

    anagin

    g exposu

    res, an

    d collateralvalu

    e

    An

    alyze the

    Credit R

    isk Data Lifecycle

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    27SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    How

    Do W

    e Organ

    ize The D

    ata?

    Risk

    Calcu

    lations

    (PD

    , LGD

    , EAD

    )

    Risk

    Weigh

    ted Assets

    (RW

    A)

    Basel II

    Regu

    latoryC

    apital

    Man

    datoryC

    redit Risk D

    ata

    ILLUSTR

    ATIV

    E

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    28SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    How

    Do W

    e Organ

    ize The D

    ata?

    Risk R

    ating /

    Scoring M

    odels

    Risk

    Calcu

    lations

    (PD

    , LGD

    , EAD

    )

    Risk

    Weigh

    ted Assets

    (RW

    A)

    Param

    eterEstim

    ates

    Basel II

    Regu

    latoryC

    apital

    Man

    datoryC

    redit Risk D

    ata

    ILLUSTR

    ATIV

    E

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    29SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    How

    Do W

    e Organ

    ize The D

    ata?B

    orrower /

    Gu

    arantor

    Identity

    Risk R

    ating /

    Scoring M

    odels

    Risk

    Calcu

    lations

    (PD

    , LGD

    , EAD

    )

    Risk

    Weigh

    ted Assets

    (RW

    A)

    Param

    eterEstim

    ates

    Econom

    icLoss H

    istory

    External

    Credit

    Assessm

    ents

    Borrow

    er /G

    uaran

    torC

    haracteristics

    Basel II

    Regu

    latoryC

    apital

    FacilityD

    etails

    Credit R

    iskM

    itigation

    Man

    datoryC

    redit Risk D

    ata

    Instru

    men

    tB

    alances

    ILLUSTR

    ATIV

    E

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    30SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Wh

    at We Learn

    ed Abou

    t Ou

    r Data

    th

    e most ch

    allengin

    g task was m

    apping data

    th

    ere was n

    o comm

    on data m

    odel

    th

    ere were som

    e data breaks

    w

    e didnt h

    ave granu

    lar enou

    gh h

    istorical data

    data defin

    itions w

    ere incon

    sistent

    as th

    e parallel year progressed, we m

    easured su

    ccess by the

    reduction

    in th

    e use of defau

    ltsfor R

    WA

    calculation

    s

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    31SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Case Stu

    dy #1

    : Param

    eter Estimation

    Borrow

    er /G

    uaran

    torIden

    tity

    Risk R

    ating /

    Scoring M

    odels

    Risk

    Calcu

    lations

    (PD

    , LGD

    , EAD

    )

    Risk

    Weigh

    ted Assets

    (RW

    A)

    Param

    eterEstim

    ates

    Econom

    icLoss H

    istory

    External

    Credit

    Assessm

    ents

    Borrow

    er /G

    uaran

    torC

    haracteristics

    Basel II

    Regu

    latoryC

    apital

    FacilityD

    etails

    Credit R

    iskM

    itigation

    Instru

    men

    tB

    alances

    usin

    g Residen

    tial Mortgages

    as an exam

    ple

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    32SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Overview

    : Param

    eter Estimation

    risk ratin

    g systems ran

    k order the qu

    ality of individu

    al creditrisk exposu

    res and grou

    pings of exposu

    res

    th

    ere are three im

    portant dim

    ension

    s:

    the risk of th

    e borrower defau

    lting (P

    D)

    factors specific to in

    dividual tran

    sactions to estim

    ateth

    e econom

    ic loss, given defau

    lt (LGD

    )

    the calcu

    lation of exposu

    re amou

    nt at defau

    lt (EAD

    )

    th

    e estimates for P

    Ds

    need to be lon

    g-run

    averages of the

    actual on

    e-year default rates

    LG

    Ds

    mu

    st be developed from h

    istorical losses and recoveries

    th

    ese parameters m

    ust be good predictors of fu

    ture loss even

    ts

    ban

    ks are expected to reflect conservative estim

    ates

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    33SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Key C

    hallen

    ges: Param

    eter Estimation

    requ

    ired history (at least on

    e full econ

    omic cycle) n

    ot readilyavailable for som

    e required attribu

    tes

    scarcity of C

    IBC

    -specific default data (e.g., Sovereign

    s, Ban

    ks)

    gran

    ularity of data n

    ot always available

    persisten

    ce of key data over time du

    e to systems ch

    anges

    requ

    ires un

    ique an

    alytical skill sets to build param

    eterestim

    ation m

    odels

    param

    eter estimation

    models m

    ust be in

    dependen

    tly validated

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    34SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Developin

    g Retail P

    D Estim

    ates

    Basel II requ

    ires banks to pool retail exposu

    res with

    similar risk

    characteristics an

    d estimate th

    e Probability of D

    efault (P

    D)

    each

    individu

    al exposure w

    ithin

    the pool th

    en acqu

    ires the

    parameters of th

    e pool to wh

    ich it belon

    gs

    Pool1

    Pool2

    Pool3

    Pool4

    Pool5

    Pooln

    B o r r o w e r M e t r i c s

    Transaction Metrics

    Historic P

    ortfolio P

    erforman

    ce Data

    Historic Econ

    omic D

    ata

    Pool1

    Pool2

    Pool3

    Pool4

    Pool5

    Pooln

    B o r r o w e r M e t r i c s

    Transaction Metrics

    PD

    An

    alytic Engin

    e:

    determin

    es pools

    forecasts PD

    for each pool

    revises pools to en

    sure

    appropriate Capital

    stress testin

    g

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    35SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Basel II D

    efinition

    s: Probability of D

    efault (P

    D)

    P

    robability of Defau

    lt (PD

    ) is a measu

    re of the likelih

    ood of anu

    ncertain

    futu

    re event.

    th

    e Basel II R

    esidential M

    ortgages Exposure C

    lass inclu

    desm

    ortgages for:

    single-fam

    ily hom

    es, wh

    ether th

    ey are own

    er-occupied or n

    ot

    mu

    lti-family bu

    ildings w

    ith m

    aximu

    m of 4

    un

    its

    B

    asel II definition

    of default (clau

    ses 45

    2-4

    53

    ), either or both

    of:

    obligor is past due 9

    0 days on

    credit obligation to th

    e bank

    th

    e bank con

    siders the obligor u

    nlikely to pay credit

    obligations in

    full

    B

    asel II time h

    orizon (clau

    se 46

    6) specifies h

    istorical observations

    of at least five years

    B

    asel II data sources (clau

    se 46

    4) specifies ban

    ks mu

    st regardin

    ternal data as th

    e primary sou

    rce of inform

    ation for estim

    ating

    loss characteristics

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    36SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Creatin

    g Pools for R

    esidential M

    ortgages

    throu

    gh an

    alysis, we derived the key available risk factors

    w

    e pooled mortgage loan

    s on th

    e followin

    g criteria:

    arrears status in

    bands, e.g., curren

    t, 1-2

    9 days delin

    quen

    t, etc.

    Loan-To-V

    alue (LTV

    ) ratio

    Occu

    pancy Statu

    s, e.g., rental, ow

    ner-occu

    pied, etc.

    ILLUSTR

    ATIV

    EIn

    ternal

    source data

    60-89 days delinquent

    Current30-59 days delinquent

    1-29 days delinquent

    LTV 0.x

    Pool APool F

    Pool EPool C

    Pool DPool B

    Poolin

    g for Residen

    tial Mortgages

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    37SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Meetin

    g the B

    asel II Requ

    iremen

    ts

    To conform

    to the B

    asel II requirem

    ents, w

    e ensu

    re that:

    1.

    The pools clearly differen

    tiate the P

    Ds

    (clause 4

    01

    )

    PD

    in on

    e pool shou

    ld not sign

    ificantly in

    tersect with

    others

    2.

    Each pool con

    tains en

    ough

    borrowers an

    d defaulted borrow

    ersto allow

    for mean

    ingfu

    l quan

    tification an

    d validation of loss

    characteristics at th

    e pool level (clause 4

    09

    )

    3.

    PD

    pools display sufficien

    tly hom

    ogenou

    s behaviou

    rover tim

    e

    subject to policy ch

    anges, etc.

    4.

    If any pool w

    ould h

    ave a PD

    less than

    3 basis poin

    ts, we assign

    the B

    asel II floor of 3 basis poin

    ts (clause 3

    31

    )

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    38SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Review

    ing th

    e Historical P

    erforman

    ce Data

    ILLUSTR

    ATIV

    E

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    39SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Next Steps

    Derivin

    g the P

    Ds

    for each

    Residen

    tial Mortgages pool, data w

    as analyzed to produ

    celow

    er quartile, median

    , and u

    pper quartile valu

    es

    PD(bps)

    Pool IDM

    ean PDStd

    Min

    Max

    Adjusted PD

    PD

    Estimate

    Average Balance

    A0000.00

    0000.000000.00

    0000.000000.00

    0000.0000.0

    B0000.00

    0000.000000.00

    0000.000000.00

    0000.0000.0

    C0000.00

    0000.000000.00

    0000.000000.00

    0000.0000.0

    D0000.00

    0000.000000.00

    0000.000000.00

    0000.0000.0

    E0000.00

    0000.000000.00

    0000.000000.00

    0000.0000.0

    F0000.00

    0000.000000.00

    0000.000000.00

    0000.0000.0

    ILLUSTR

    ATIV

    E

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    40SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Next Steps

    Implem

    entin

    g & M

    onitorin

    g

    statistical analysis w

    as performed to test for:

    m

    eanin

    gful distribu

    tion of borrow

    ers across pools

    hom

    ogenou

    s behaviou

    rw

    ithin

    pools

    trendin

    g

    adjustm

    ent n

    eeded for samplin

    g error(s)

    w

    e derived our estim

    ate of long-ru

    n average P

    D for each

    pool

    w

    e tested the accu

    racy of our prediction

    s

    w

    e implem

    ented th

    e PD

    model in

    to production

    for calculation

    of Risk W

    eighted A

    ssets (RW

    As) for R

    esidential M

    ortgages

    w

    e mon

    itor and an

    alyze the observed defau

    lt rate over time

    against th

    e estimate

    reports to sen

    ior man

    agemen

    t high

    light perform

    ance over tim

    e

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    41SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Case Stu

    dy #2

    : Calcu

    lating R

    isk Weigh

    ted Assets

    Borrow

    er /G

    uaran

    torIden

    tity

    Risk R

    ating /

    Scoring M

    odels

    Risk

    Calcu

    lations

    (PD

    , LGD

    , EAD

    )

    Risk

    Weigh

    ted Assets

    (RW

    A)

    Param

    eterEstim

    ates

    Econom

    icLoss H

    istory

    External

    Credit

    Assessm

    ents

    Borrow

    er /G

    uaran

    torC

    haracteristics

    Basel II

    Regu

    latoryC

    apital

    FacilityD

    etails

    Credit R

    iskM

    itigation

    Instru

    men

    tB

    alances

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    42SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    The R

    oad to Basel II R

    isk Weigh

    ted Assets

    m

    inim

    um

    regulatory capital u

    nder B

    asel II is based on th

    ecalcu

    lation of R

    isk Weigh

    ted Assets (R

    WA

    s)

    R

    WA

    sare calcu

    lated according to establish

    ed math

    ematical

    formu

    lae utilizin

    g PD

    s, LGD

    s, EAD

    s, and in

    some cases,

    matu

    rity adjustm

    ents

    Sou

    rcing, processin

    g, and recon

    ciling data in

    order to calculate,

    store, and report on

    RW

    As

    for the calcu

    lation of m

    inim

    um

    regulatory capital is th

    e core of the B

    asel II data challen

    ge

    Th

    e Basel II C

    apital Adequ

    acy Requ

    iremen

    ts (BC

    AR

    ) Retu

    rnprovides C

    anadian

    regulators w

    ith qu

    arterly status on

    the

    Ban

    ks capitalization in

    relation to th

    e risks it has assu

    med

    In

    Can

    ada, the m

    inim

    um

    ratio for Total Capital to R

    isk Assets

    and Total A

    ssets is 8%

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    43SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Credit R

    isk Data A

    rchitectu

    re Overview

    RETA

    IL &

    WH

    OLESA

    LEC

    RED

    ITR

    ISK D

    ATA

    WA

    REH

    OU

    SES

    Bu

    siness

    Ru

    les

    RW

    Acalcu

    lationen

    gines

    Risk

    An

    alyticsM

    odels

    Party

    Referen

    ceD

    ata

    Credit

    Application &

    Adju

    dication

    Accou

    nt

    Man

    agemen

    t&

    Mon

    itoring

    Transaction

    Systems

    External

    Ratin

    gs

    D a t a I n t e g r a t i o n L a y e r ( v a r i o u s E T L t o o l s p u s h / p u l l )

    B u s i n e s s I n t e l l i g e n c e L a y e r

    Reports

    View

    s

    Direct

    Feed toR

    egulators

    G/L

    Balances &

    Hierarch

    ies

    Economic

    Capital

    calculation

    engin

    es

    Oth

    erA

    pplications&

    Models

    staging areas

    ILLUSTR

    ATIV

    E

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    44SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    The P

    rocess for RW

    As

    R

    etail Credit R

    isk

    extract monthly source

    data for all retail assetsas at m

    onth-end

    staging areadata validation

    assign retail assets to Basel II Exposure Class

    reconcile balances of retail assets to G

    eneral Ledger

    ILLUSTR

    ATIV

    E

    General Ledger

    analytic engine to assignretail assets into pools

    reference data

    Parameter tables

    (PD, LG

    D, EAD

    )

    RW

    A calculator enginefor all retail assets andpool sum

    maries

    creation of BCAR andother regulatory reports

    final reconciliation ofall risk assets

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    45SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Recon

    ciliation To Th

    e Gen

    eral Ledger

    AccountingCode block

    Credit R

    isk data wareh

    ouses

    BalanceO

    ther Risk D

    ata Attributes

    P r o d u c t

    O r g

    B O A

    A c c o u n t

    C u s t G r p

    S u b A c c t

    Finan

    ce systems

    BalanceO

    ther Financial Attributes

    P r o d u c t

    O r g

    B O A

    A c c o u n t

    C u s t G r p

    S u b A c c t

    recon

    ciliation is requ

    ired for all Basel II Exposu

    re Classes an

    dExposu

    re Types (drawn

    , un

    drawn

    , other off-balan

    ce sheet)

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    46SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Recon

    ciliation To Th

    e Gen

    eral Ledger

    AccountingCode block

    Credit R

    isk data wareh

    ouses

    BalanceO

    ther Risk D

    ata Attributes

    P r o d u c t

    O r g

    B O A

    A c c o u n t

    C u s t G r p

    S u b A c c t

    Finan

    ce systems

    BalanceO

    ther Financial Attributes

    P r o d u c t

    O r g

    B O A

    A c c o u n t

    C u s t G r p

    S u b A c c t

    recon

    ciliation is requ

    ired for all Basel II Exposu

    re Classes an

    dExposu

    re Types (drawn

    , un

    drawn

    , other off-balan

    ce sheet)

    Ch

    allenges:

    sou

    rce systems are n

    ot un

    ique by B

    asel II Exposure C

    lass

    ensu

    ring accu

    rate booking of tran

    sactions across m

    ultiple source

    systems

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    47SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    An

    alysis and R

    eporting

    m

    ultiple bu

    siness stakeh

    olders have regu

    latory and

    man

    agemen

    t reporting n

    eeds for credit risk data

    R

    egulators requ

    ire specific credit risk reports quarterly,

    due 3

    0 days after fiscal qu

    arter-end:

    B

    CA

    R (B

    asel II regulatory capital)

    N

    CR

    (new

    credit risks)

    B

    oard of Directors an

    d senior m

    anagem

    ent oversigh

    t

    Lin

    e of Bu

    siness A

    nalysis of:

    exposu

    res, risk calculation

    s (e.g., EAD

    , EL, RW

    A, etc.)

    risk profiles -

    OD

    R/LG

    D distribu

    tions, etc.

    portfolio m

    etrics geograph

    ic, indu

    stry, etc.

    P

    erforman

    ce measu

    remen

    t of risk analytics m

    odels forcon

    tinu

    ous im

    provemen

    t

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    48SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    SAS P

    latform for R

    etail Credit R

    isk

    staging areasB

    usin

    ess R

    ules

    Risk

    An

    alyticsM

    odels

    Party

    Referen

    ceD

    ata

    Credit

    Application &

    Adju

    dication

    Accou

    nt

    Man

    agemen

    t&

    Mon

    itoring

    Transaction

    Systems

    External

    Ratin

    gs

    D a t a I n t e g r a t i o n L a y e r ( v a r i o u s E T L t o o l s p u s h / p u l l )

    B u s i n e s s I n t e l l i g e n c e L a y e r

    Reports

    An

    alytic Cu

    bes / Marts

    Direct

    Feed toR

    egulators

    G/L

    Balances &

    Hierarch

    ies

    Oth

    erA

    pplications&

    Models

    RW

    Acalcu

    lationen

    gines

    SAS

    DI S

    tudio

    SAS

    Enterprise G

    uide

    SAS

    Enterprise M

    iner

    SAS

    Risk D

    imen

    sions

    ILLUSTR

    ATIV

    E

    Economic

    Capital

    calculation

    engin

    es

    RETA

    ILC

    RED

    ITR

    ISK D

    ATA

    WA

    REH

    OU

    SE

    SAS

    OLA

    P

    Studio

    SAS

    Enterprise G

    uide

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    49SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters.

    Sum

    mary

    u

    nder B

    asel II AIR

    B, a ban

    k will be able to self-assess an

    d report m

    inim

    um

    regulatory capital for credit risk

    approval an

    d ongoin

    g complian

    ce is dependen

    t upon

    banks

    demon

    strating th

    e integrity of th

    eir risk rating m

    ethodologies

    and data u

    sed to calculate regu

    latory capital

    sen

    ior man

    agemen

    t has accou

    ntability for establish

    ing an

    dm

    onitorin

    g the en

    terprise-wide observan

    ce of the risk data

    man

    agemen

    t framew

    ork

    th

    e payback on th

    e Basel II in

    vestmen

    tcom

    es from th

    e u

    se of the n

    ew regu

    latory capital inform

    ation for bu

    sinesses

    to more effectively m

    anage risk

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    50SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters. Wh

    ile we are w

    ell on ou

    r way

    at CIB

    C, th

    e journ

    ey contin

    ues

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

  • CIBC 2009 All R

    ights Reserved

    51SA

    S Global Foru

    m 2009

    For what m

    atters. Than

    k You

    Than

    k You

    contact:

    contact: rick.m

    [email protected]

    rick.miller@

    cibc.ca

    F i n a n c i a l S e r v i c e sS A S G l o b a l F o r u m 2 0 0 9

    2009 Table of Contents