CIERACommunity Initiative for Emissions Research and Applications

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Claire Granier Université Pierre et Marie Curie/LATMOS, Paris, France and

NOAA/ESRL & Univ. Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, Colorado

Gregory J. Frost, NOAA/ESRL & Univ. Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, ColoradoJean-François Lamarque, NCAR/ACD & CGD, Boulder, Colorado

Stefan Falke, Northrop Grumman & Washington Univ., St. Louis, MissouriTerry Keating, EPA/OAR, Washington, DC

Paulette Middleton, Panorama Pathways, Boulder, ColoradoGabrielle Pétron, NOAA/ESRL & Univ. Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, Colorado

Steven J. Smith, DOE/PNNL & Univ. Maryland/JGCRI, College Park, MarylandMegan L. Melamed, AAAS Fellow, EPA/NCER, Washington, D.C.

Species considered: CO2, CH4, CO, NOx, SO2, NMVOCs, particles

Why We Care About Emissions

Quantitative emission information is needed for:•Accounting for the past & observing and calculating the present•Predicting and projecting the future•Taking action for mitigation, adaptation, etc.•Defining win-win climate/air quality strategies•Making choices: Which “knob” to turn? Is one better than the other?

Do we have emissions data accurate enough for our modeling/analysis work?

Actions and decisions about the atmosphere focus on emissions

Slide courtesy of A.R. Ravishankara2

Emissions for IPCC AR5 simulations: anchor point in 2000 (2005 for CO2)

• Historical emissions: harmonization for 10 sectors and 40 regions

• Best estimate for 2000: combination of global and regional datasets

• Emissions available every 10 years at 0.5-degree

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Global surface emissions post-2000: Emissions of most compounds not available after 2000 Use of the future scenarios developed for IPCC AR5 RCPs = Representative Concentrations Pathways) Continuity in 2000 (handshake)

Linear interpolation between 2000 and 2005/2010 of emissions provided by the RCPs

From: IIASA RCP database

Are any of these emissions accurate?

A systematic evaluation of surface emissions has started within GEIA (Global Emissions Inventory Activity), a sub-project of AIMES

Open to all people willing to propose new data / analyze results

Start with the 1980-2010 period

Only publicly available gridded inventories considered so far

Focus on: CO, NOx, SO2 and BC

Assess whether one of the 2000-2010 scenarios is closer than the others to regional emissions available after 2000, assuming regional emissions are more accurate

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Example: Evaluation of emissions

Analysis of the differences and improvements of the emissions inventories requires the knowledge of data currently not available

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Example: Evaluation of emissions

Analysis of the differences and improvements of the emissions inventories requires the knowledge of data currently not available

Examples of comparison of anthropogenic emissions

SO2 China(Tg/yr)

Examples of comparison of anthropogenic emissions

SO2 China (Tg/yr)

But, are regional emissions really more accurate Based on reported data by countries/states/…

CO emissions (Tg/yr)

CO traffic emissions from reported data

CO emissions inferred from observations

From Parrish, Atmos. Env.

2006

Drivers for the Development of CIERA

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•What is the problem?Current emission inventories are incompatible with and inadequate for the needs of the atmospheric research community’s multi-scale modeling and analysis of observations.

•Why now? The work performed by the community is much more reliant on complex modeling and observational systems. Emissions data are a key input.

•Who might be interested? •All scientists using models and analyzing observations.•All groups working on generation of emission datasets and associate impact of control, abatement, and regulation.

Air Quality and Climate: The Way They Were

Different scales, regulations, and research have led to different approaches

Air Quality Climate

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Regulation Research

Inventories Observations

ModelsRegulation Research

Regulation Research Regulation Research

Inventories Observations

ModelsRegulation Research

Regulation Research

Time ScalesHours - Weeks

RegionalLocal

Spatial ScalesTime Scales

Months - Centuries

Global

Spatial Scales

Regional

Air Quality and Climate: How They Are Evolving

As these issues increasingly overlap, new approaches are needed

Air Quality and Climate

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Regulation Research

Inventories Observations

ModelsRegulation Research

Regulation Research

Time ScalesHours - Centuries

RegionalLocal

Spatial Scales

Global

•Reconciling approaches•Common sources•Bridging scales•Feedbacks

•Reconciling approaches•Common sources•Bridging scales•Feedbacks

Emissions for Air Quality & Climate: Connections

www.wrapfets.org/ 14

Cooper et al., 2010

Ginoux, 2009

M. Meinshausen, 2010

CIERACommunity Initiative for Emissions Research and Applications

Evaluations and Impacts

Evaluations and Impacts

Assessments and CommunicationsAssessments and Communications

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Inventories andEmission ModelsInventories and

Emission ModelsObservationsObservations Atmospheric

ModelsAtmospheric

Models

CIERA Components and Activities•Web infrastructure•Development & analysis of data sets•Outreach to different communities•User support

CIERA Components and Activities•Web infrastructure•Development & analysis of data sets•Outreach to different communities•User support

CIERA Vision:Coordinated Emission Activities

Optimized emissions information from enhanced evaluations, impact studies,

assessments, and communication

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Assessmentsand consensus emissions data

Evaluations of emission data

Turnbull et al., 2010

Impactsof emissions on AQ & climate

Shindell et al., 2008

Communicationforum for emissions research

Observations

CIERA Vision:Distributed Emission Data System

Data Tools

Inventories,Emission Models

Web-based, open, multi-scale, consistent air quality & climate

emissions system

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Earth System Models

Kim et al., 2006Levy et al., 2008

Ginoux, 2009

CIERA Components and Activities

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Web infrastructure•Build database system•Tools for analysis and visualization

Development/ analysis of data sets•Open-source emission system•User-friendly emission model interfaces•Data evaluation and feedback•Documentation and metadata

Outreach to community•Workshops and schools•Assessments

User support•Questions from users•Cross-platform development•Training

Emissions Databases

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CIERA will benefit from the emissions portal developed by GEIA: http:geiacenter.organd of the new database with interactive graphics/tools:http://ether.ipsl.fr

CIERA Action Items

•Build an international partnership•Form working groups•Encourage application of CIERA to emissions research•Strengthen feedbacks between research & regulatory communities

•Building the CIERA database•Connect emission portals•Incorporate data sets•Incorporate and develop tools

•Developing the CIERA vision and scope•Write scientific papers•Show synergies and progress from CIERA effort•Establish CIERA as a sustainable program

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CIERA ContactsGreg Frost gregory.j.frost@noaa.govStefan Falke Stefan.Falke@ngc.com Claire Granier Claire.Granier@noaa.gov Terry Keating keating.terry@epa.gov Jean-François Lamarque lamar@ucar.edu Megan Melamed melamed.megan@epa.gov Paulette Middleton paulette@panoramapathways.net Gabrielle Pétron Gabrielle.Petron@noaa.gov Steve Smith ssmith@pnl.gov

CIERA ContactsGreg Frost gregory.j.frost@noaa.govStefan Falke Stefan.Falke@ngc.com Claire Granier Claire.Granier@noaa.gov Terry Keating keating.terry@epa.gov Jean-François Lamarque lamar@ucar.edu Megan Melamed melamed.megan@epa.gov Paulette Middleton paulette@panoramapathways.net Gabrielle Pétron Gabrielle.Petron@noaa.gov Steve Smith ssmith@pnl.gov

Coming Soon…http://ciera-air.org/

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CIERA is a multi-agency US initiative, which will become eventually an international community activity