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Rockefeller convening presentation by CIFOR's Bruno Locatelli
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THINKING beyond the canopy
Forests and Trees for a Climate Smart Agriculture
Climate Change Adaptation and African Agriculture Grantee Convening, 24-25 February 2011,
Nairobi, Kenya,
The Rockefeller Foundation
Bruno Locatelli
A Research Proposal
THINKING beyond the canopy
CIFOR-ICRAF
Current CGIAR Reform
• New Consortium Research Program on Forests and Trees
CIFOR, ICRAF, CIAT, Bioversity, and other partners
Component on climate change:
• Mitigation
• Adaptation
• Linkages between adaptation and mitigation
Center for International Forestry Research
World Agroforestry Center
Climate change mitigation and adaptation are priority issues
Headquarters
Climate change activities
THINKING beyond the canopy
The role of forests and trees in people’s adaptation
Increasing interest in the role of ecosystem services for people’s adaptation
• In science, policy, and practice
• Ecosystem-Based Adaptation
Forests and
Trees Livelihoods
Ecosystem Services
Conservation, Restoration, Adaptive Management
Adaptation
Huge potential for synergies between:
• Agriculture, forests and trees
In livelihoods and landscapes
• Adaptation and mitigation
THINKING beyond the canopy
Adaptation of agriculture and rural livelihoods: The role of forests and trees
Role of regulating services for agriculture
• Regulation of water (infiltration, conservation of base flow)
• Regulation of microclimate (temperature during heat waves, moisture, wind)
Role of provisioning services (timber, fuel wood, non timber forest products, etc.) for rural livelihoods
Safety nets as coping strategy during extreme events
Diversification as an adapting strategy
THINKING beyond the canopy
Provisioning services: Ex. in Malawi
“Although forests do not currently play a role in anticipatory adaptation by rural households, they do appear important for reactive coping: providing food during shortages, and a source of cash for coping with weather-related crop failure”.
“Households most reliant on forests have low income per person”
Fisher M., Chaudhury M., McCusker B., 2010. Do Forests Help Rural Households Adapt to Climate Variability? Evidence from Southern Malawi. World Development 38(9): 1241–1250.
THINKING beyond the canopy
Regulating services
A lot of methods and data on the effect of trees and forests on nutrient & water at different scales:
• water redistribution in soil profile
• increased infiltration affecting river flows and water quality
• regional tree cover may effect rainfall?
Sinclair F., Barrios F., Sileshi G., Bayala J., Muthuri C., 2011. Managing effects of trees on soil and water productivity and their impacts on other ecosystem services. ICRAF Map produced by Meschack Nyabenge from data in Coe, Cooper and Sinclair, in prep.
Need for: - Replicating - Synthesizing (e.g., meta analysis) - Up scaling - Adding an adaptation perspective
THINKING beyond the canopy
Overall objective
To contribute to the integration of forests and trees into local plans and national policies for the adaptation of agriculture and rural livelihoods to climate variability and change, for risk reduction, poverty alleviation, human well-being, and synergies with climate change mitigation.
THINKING beyond the canopy
4. Capacity
-building
5. Commu
nication
1. Policy analysis and
policy-science dialogue
3. Adaptation
planning
2. Vulnerability
assessment
THINKING beyond the canopy
Vulnerability Assessment
What is the role of tree and forest products in the coping and adapting strategies of rural communities?
What is the role of regulating services (water and microclimate) in the resilience of agriculture?
Livelihood analysis, historical analysis (shocks and trends)
Meta-analysis, modeling, and biophysical field research
Questions
Methods
Outputs Scientific evidence on the role of trees and forests in agricultural adaptation
Methods and tools for assessing the role of ecosystem services in adaptation
THINKING beyond the canopy
Adaptation Planning
What forest and tree-related measures can be designed for reducing the vulnerability of agriculture and rural livelihoods?
What will be outcomes of these measures in terms of adaptation and mitigation and in terms of effectiveness, efficiency, and equity?
Participatory scenario building, backcasting
Modeling, trade-off analysis
Questions
Methods
Outputs
Analysis of possible interventions for integrating trees and forests in agricultural adaptation.
Methods and tools for planning agricultural adaptation with trees and forests.
THINKING beyond the canopy
Conclusion
Integrating agriculture, trees, forests into adaptation and
mitigation needs:
• Capacity and knowledge
• Policymakers and practitioner networks
• Policies
This project can contribute to this.
But we need:
• Strong partnerships with RF grantees
• Strong partnerships with adaptation initiatives
THINKING beyond the canopy
PC1 (Policies)
Are forests and trees currently considered in adaptation plans for agriculture? Why (missing links between forest, agriculture, development, adaptation, and mitigation arenas)?
What are the opportunities for integrating forests and trees into adaptation policies and linking mitigation and adaptation in policies?
Analysis of policy documents
Analysis of stakeholders’ perceptions
Policy network analysis
Questions
Methods
Outputs
Analysis of policy processes, networks, and opportunities for bridging adaptation, agriculture, and forests/trees.
Identified targets for action and communication (in PC4 and PC5)
THINKING beyond the canopy
Provisioning services: Ex. in Cameroon
Livelihood
actitvities
Climatic exposure
Agriculture Livestock NTFPs Hunting Fishing
Site 1 Site 2 Site 1 Site 2 Site 1 Site 2 Site 1 Site 2 Site 1 Site 2
Heavy rainfall --- --- o o o o o o + + Punctual droughts
during rainy season --- - -- - - o o
Occasional rainfall
during dry season ++ + + o
Low rain during all year + + - - o o - Strong winds -- - o - - o Dry season heat waves --- - o o - - o
Forest-related activities: Less sensitive (safety nets?)
Agriculture and livestock: Very sensitive to climate variability
Forests are part of the adaptation strategies proposed by local people. Ex.:
NTFP (domestication, market access, training). Forest governance (e.g., community management with equitable benefit sharing).
--- High negative, -- Med negative, - Low negative, o No, + Low positive, ++ Med positive
THINKING beyond the canopy
Provisioning services: Ex. in Mali
Livelihood activities related to forests:
• Use of fodder for animals.
• Increased charcoal production and wood collection
Forests as a safety nets
• Growing pressure on forest resources during dry years
• Maladaptation unless forest governance ensures resource sustainability and shared benefits
How to move the forest contribution from coping to adapting strategies?
• Need for cross-scale governance
Djoudi H., Brockhaus M., Locatelli B., 2011. Vulnerability to climate variability and change among communities depending on livestock and forest in Northern Mali: a multi-level analysis. Regional Environmental Change, forthcoming
THINKING beyond the canopy
Approach
Science (analysis of the role of ecosystem services, policy analysis, data, methods and tools … )
Communication (to practitioners, NGOs,
policymakers, government, academic … )
Collaboration with adaptation
initiatives (joint research, capacity building…)
PC1 (policy)
PC2 (vulnerability)
PC3 (adaptation)
PC4 (action)
PC5 (communication)
)
At different scales. International to local.
Key actors identified in PC1 Need to build partnerships with adaptation initiatives
(scientists and practitioners).
THINKING beyond the canopy
Articulation of the scientific activities and the support to adaptation initiatives and policy processes
Situation analysis
Ecosystem analysis
Livelihood analysis
Current vulnerability
Future scenarios
Future vulnerability
Adaptation options
Evaluation
Adaptation strategic plans
Implementation (through PC4)
Vulnerability assessment (PC2) Adaptation plans (PC3)
Policy review, Policy network analysis, Institutional mapping
Key stakeholders Key processes Policy analysis (PC1)
Sequential order
Interactions
National
Sub - national
Local