CIO Congress Information Technologies that will drive Enterprise Change Forbes/Gartner CIO Congress 14 June 1998 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corp

CIO CongressCIO Congress

Information Technologies that will drive Enterprise Change

Forbes/Gartner CIO Congress

14 June 1998

Gordon Bell

Microsoft Corp.http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/


Topics...

JAWS JAWES T STEW WEST

– WEB– E-Commerce– Scalability– Telepresence


Web…a small Cyberspace island


Region/Region/IntranetIntranet

Campus,Campus,including SANsincluding SANs

HomeHome

BodyBody

WorldWorld

ContinentContinent

Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace!

Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms

CarCar


“Everything will be in Cyberspace”

Is this a challenge? goal? quest? fate?… or

Cyberization enables new computing platforms thatrequire new networks to connect them – Infrastructure supports the content– Three evolutionary dimensions


Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information

Coupling to all information and information processors

Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video Bit tokens e.g. money, stock State of: places, things, and people State of: physical networks


Atoms vs Electrons for bitsAtoms (mass) Electrons, etc. (massless)people know computers knowbricks & mortar anywhere

(personnel/clients)office hours anytimedatabase & reports web access for review

and transactionsletter & fax email & web accessphone email, voice & video mailpersonal visits videophone / videomailsignature authenticated imagesenvelopes digital envelopes / store


By January 2001 there will NOT be 1 billion people on the “net”.

Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K

Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K:$5K… it happens by 2002.

Also $1 T of commerce by 2001.


Why this is the keystone bet! It determines the market

– for networks– for access devices… especially PCs

It says something about the utility– commerce – communication– entertainment

Increased network capacity & ubiquity enables– phones– videophones– television– serendipity


Internetters growth

‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04

Internet GrowthInternet Growthextrapolated at 98% per yearextrapolated at 98% per year

World PopulationWorld Populationextrapolated at 1.6% per yearextrapolated at 1.6% per year

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0


Internetters growth

InternettersInternetters

PCsPCs

TVs & PhonesTVs & Phones

World PopulationWorld Population10000

1000

100

10‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04

““1 Gp by 20001 Gp by 2000””NegroponteNegroponte


Growth in hypeWWW

Infoway addiction

Infoway regulation

lawsuits

Data from Gordon’s WAG

conferences

books,newspapers

Infoway promise:“how great it’ll be” (politicians, academics, etc.)


Articles about security, privacy, & fraud versus commerce ($M)

Data from Gordon’s WAG

articles about risk and NOT doing commerce

actual commerce

pornography, crime, FUD, etc. articles


Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space

ComputationComputation

CommunicationCommunication CyberizationCyberizationPrograms, Content & messages


DataData

Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020?

TelephonyTelephony

TelevisionTelevision


CIO Challenge… how to manage Cyberspace?


New & in-house custom applications

SAP, PeopleSoft, BAAN, Oracle ERP Oracle, MS-SQL, SyBase, Informix Notes, Outlook, Netshow, File & Print SMTP, POP, Exchange, ccMail HTTP(s), DNS, FTP, Real, Pointcast

Visibility is Required for Every Part of the System!


Managing the entire IT Enterprise: servers, apps, nets and clients …

Enterprise’s growing dependence upon apps for business processes and extended market reach … and especially E-commerce

Growing complexity of apps and Growing “user” diversity including customers No visibility into the user’s experience

The approach has to be to understand the system from the user’s perspective!


Client Based Passive Flow Analysis: End-to-end Path Visibility

AvailabilityCongestion, Hop Count, DelayRTT (Round Trip Time)Route flutter, Packet lossAvailable Throughput

AvailabilityLoadDelayRefused

connections

Transaction Time

AvailabilityPC HealthConfigurationDelay

Client Network Server

Routers & Switches

User BehaviorModemPhone Line

Availability Transaction HealthApplications


E- Commerce (and especially money… as atoms become bits)


PC or web access device is critical for growth


US Households on line


One million people will access the web via TV sets...

Bet::At least one million users will access the web/internet via their television sets by the end of 2001.

Via: phone line, 16%xDSL 19% cable modem 17% settop box/cable 39%not at all 9%


On line US Revenue


Real growth in commerce?


Who buys what on line in 2002?


Underlying Technologies

Merchant Servers– Microsoft– Open Market– SUN– iCat

Cyber Agencies– CKS– Organic– DoubleClick


Underlying Technologies Incentive Systems (money surrogate)

– Digital IQ - Coupons– Netcentives - Frequent Flyer Miles– Impulse Buy Network - Buyer’s Network– Narrative - Direct Response– Sweepstakes - Yoyodyne– e-Bay - Auctions

Cyber “Consumer Reports”– Junglee– Jango– NECX


Channels More Cybermediaries -

Bring Buyers and Sellers Together– Yahoo– FastParts, Inc.– Instill Corp

Consumer Magnets - Buyers With Useful Information link to Manufacturers & Service Providers– Auto-by-Tel– Get-Smart.com– Junglee– NECX


Predictions that will change your job

As Cybermediaries Gain Momentum - They could Control Buying Process

Existing Suppliers Risk Being Supplanted by Startups That Will Own the Internet channel– Example: Amazon.Com


Atoms represent “money”, ownership, … risk

IT responsible for the infrastructure for a wide range of activities: advertising, selling, delivery, billing, support, etc.

For many, the WEB is the Interface


New or old money… it’s just bits

Prepaid

Credit

Cash

Check

ATM /

Prepaid


Put those checks & statements in Cyberspace or eliminate them!


Buying & selling stock: what a pain!Faxes? E-signatures are legal in GA


Paperless transactions: put them all in Cyberspace



Atoms vs Electrons for financial bitsAtoms (mass) Electrons, etc. (massless)money database, smart card,

credit card, debit cardstatements web accessbills / checks bill present. / check freecoupons cyber-coupons

stock database, webstatements, reports web access, email +company infor, analyst reports, etc.private placements web access, emailtrade confirmation direct tradesmail voting on line voting


Scalability

User-built Scalables aka Clusters are like nothing we’ve seen before...


Billions Of Clients

Every device will be “intelligent” Doors, rooms, cars… Computing will be ubiquitous


Libretto, .5mm pencil

PCS; Pilot

Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife

Compass; altimeter

Not shown: ECG; GPS;


Audio, pix, T, P, ECG, location, physiological parameters…1 GB


Billions Of ClientsNeed Millions Of Servers

MobileMobileclientsclients

FixedFixedclients clients

ServerServer

SuperSuperserverserver

ClientsClients

ServersServers

All clients All clients networked to networked to serversservers May be nomadicMay be nomadic

or on-demandor on-demand Fast clients wantFast clients want

fasterfaster servers servers Servers provide Servers provide

Shared DataShared Data ControlControl CoordinationCoordination CommunicationCommunication


Cluster: Shared What? Shared Memory Multiprocessor

– Multiple processors, one memory– all devices are local– DEC, HP, IBM, Sequent, SGI, SUN

Shared Disk Cluster– an array of nodes– all shared common disks– VAXcluster + Oracle

Shared Nothing Cluster– each device local to a node– ownership may change– Tandem, SP2, Wolfpack


SNAP: Scalable Networks and Platforms

Standard (I.e. commodity) platform The SAN (System Area Network) standard

makes the network ubiquitous … and great! Common operating system for platform,

reducing vendor and customer costs,and enables affordable, standard apps

Cluster technology Apps are TRANPARENT!!!


SNAP Systems circa 2000

Local & global data commworld

ATM & Ethernet:to PC, workstation,

& servers

Wide-area global

ATM network

Legacymainframe &minicomputer

servers & terminals

Centralized& departmental

servers built fromPCs

scalable computers built from PCs & SANs

TC=TV+PChome ...

(CATV or ATM or satellite)

???

Portables

A space, time (bandwidth), generation, and reliability scalable environment

Person servers (PCs)

MobileNets

Telecomputersaka Internet

Terminals


Scaling dimensions include:

reliability… including always up number of nodes

– most cost-effective system built from best nodes… PCs with NO backplane

– highest throughput distributes disks to each node versus into a single node

location within a region or continent time-scale I.e. machine generations


Gbps Ethernet: 110 MBps

SAN: Standard Interconnect

PCI: 70 MBps

UW SCSI: 40 MBps

FW SCSI: 20 MBps

SCSI: 5 MBps

LAN faster than memory bus?

1 GBps links in lab.

100$ port cost soon

Port is computer

RIPFDDI

RIPATM

RIPSCI

RIPSCSI

RIPFC

RIP?


Basic Argument for x-Disks

Future disk controller is a super-computer.– 1 bips processor– 128 MB dram– 100 GB disk plus one arm

Connects to SAN via high-level protocols– RPC, HTTP, DCOM, Kerberos, Directory Services,…. – Commands are RPCs– management, security,….– Services file/web/db/… requests– Managed by general-purpose OS with good dev

environment Move apps to disk to save data movement

– need programming environment in controller


All God’s Children Have Clusters!Buying Computing By the Slice

People are buying computers by the dozens– Computers only

cost 1k$/slice! Clustering them

together


“Commercial” NT Clusters

16-node Tandem Cluster– 64 cpus– 2 TB of disk– Decision support

45-node Compaq Cluster– 140 cpus– 14 GB DRAM– 4 TB RAID disk– OLTP (Debit Credit)- 1 B tpd (14 k tps)


Tandem Oracle/NT 27,383 tpmC 71.50 $/tpmC 4 x 6 cpus 384 disks

=2.7 TB


Loki: Pentium Clusters for Sciencehttp://loki-www.lanl.gov/

16 Pentium Pro Processorsx 5 Fast Ethernet interfaces+ 2 Gbytes RAM+ 50 Gbytes Disk+ 2 Fast Ethernet switches+ Linux…………………...

= 1.2 real Gflops for $63,000(but that is the 1996 price)

Beowulf project is similarhttp://cesdis.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/people/

becker/beowulf.html

Scientists want cheap mips.


Intel/Sandia: 9000x1 node Ppro

LLNL/IBM: 512x8 PowerPC (SP2)

LNL/Cray: ?

Maui Supercomputer Center– 512x1 SP2

Our Tax Dollars At WorkASCI for Stockpile Stewardship


NCSA Cluster The National Center for

Supercomputing ApplicationsUniversity of Illinois @ Urbana

500 Pentium cpus, 2k disks, SAN Compaq + HP +Myricom A Super Computer for 3M$ Classic Fortran/MPI programming NT + DCOM programming model


4 B PC’s (1 Bips, .1GB dram, 10 GB disk 1 Gbps Net, B=G)

The Bricks of CyberspaceCost 1,000 $Come with

– NT– DBMS– High speed Net– System management– GUI / OOUI – Tools

Compatible with everyone elseCyberBricks


Some Tera-Byte DatabasesKilo

Mega

Giga

Tera

Peta

Exa

Zetta

Yotta

The Web: 1 TB of HTML TerraServer 1 TB of images Several other 1 TB (file) servers Hotmail: 7 TB of email Sloan Digital Sky Survey:

40 TB raw, 2 TB cooked EOS/DIS (picture of planet each week)

– 15 PB by 2007 Federal Clearing house: images of checks

– 15 PB by 2006 (7 year history)

Nuclear Stockpile Stewardship Program– 10 Exabytes (???!!)


Kilo

Mega

Giga

Tera

Peta

Exa

Zetta

Yotta

A novel

A letter

Library of Congress (text)

All Disks

All Tapes

A Movie

LoC (image)

Info Capture You can record

everything you see

or hear or read. What would you

do with it? How would you

organize & analyze it?

Video 8 PB/lifetime (10GB/h)Audio 30 TB (10KB/s) Read/write:8 GB (words)

See: http://www.lesk.com/mlesk/ksg97/ksg.html


Kilo

Mega

Giga

Tera

Peta

Exa

Zetta

Yotta

A novel

A letter

LoC (text)LoC (text)

All Tapes

A Movie

LoC (image)

All Photos

LoC (sound + cinema)

All Information!

All Disks


Now how do you find or use the rich information

Need the system to: locate, retrieve, visualize, order, up load the corporation’s IP assets (text, proposals, images, videos, presentations, etc.) … with appropriate controls.


ColorB&W

BrightnessContrast

Volume

Speech-Music

Meta Information

Image Recognition for ObjectsSpeech RecognitionImage Recognition, Lexical CuesTranscriptsClose CaptionLexical Analysis

Context Relevance

ViewingPreviews - Power Point, PDF, Video, Sound, Artwork

SmartMedia Technologies


Virage Video Cataloger


Telepresence… being there while being here, at another time, and with time scaling Telepresentations Telemeetings The “work”



Motivation:Telepresentations

• Presenter and/or audience telepresent

NOT: meeting or collaboration settings

Forget the nasty social issues!

Mostly one-way


TelepresentationElements

Slides Audio Video Script,

text comments, hyperlinks,etc.


Telepresentations:The Essentials

Slide and audio a must Add some video

(low quality) to make us feel good

Storage and transmission costs low


Telepresentations:The Killer App

Increased attendance & lower travel costs

Practical and low-cost NOW e.g. ACM97 - 2,000 visitors in real

space, 20,000 visitors on Internethttp://research.microsoft.com/acm97


Today’sExperiment

Would you like to pause, rewind, browse? Do you wish you could have seen this

– At home?– At another time?

How much does a present speaker add? How much would you pay for real presence?


Telework: It takes screens, sound, and bandwidth, stupid

http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/


““

””

By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in use.

Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray1996 (one paper,

loser gets fed)


Telecommuting versus time


Teleworking CW 9/1/97

15% 2 yr increase, 11 Mpeople, avg. 19 Hr/wk 42% of US Co’s; 22% have policies

(screening, worker expectations, liability, IP protection, etc.

Are telecommuters more productive?– 30% yes– 50% same– 4% no– 16% don’t know

Are telecommuters more accessible?– 13% yes– 40% same– 40% no– 7% don’t know


Telepresencehold a meeting of type, m

university or technical course

interview, staff meeting, co-ordination, board meeting, annual meeting, “town hall”,

with p, distributed persons

with as much interactivity and feeling

such that people prefer being telepresent

meetings are provably more productive

meetings will evolve to be asynchronous versus traditional synchronous


Mobile videophone


Honda Robot


Living in Cyberspace


SOHO (small office, home office)network computing environment

NT Server for: comm/network, POTS/IP

gateway, file, print, compute

IP Dial tone (Internet, phone, videophone) >1.5 Mbps

Phone

POTS (legacy services)

*NC, NetPC, Xterm, etc.

...

LAN

PC NC*PC...

PhonePhone


Problems of living & working in Cyberspace: socio vs technical Isolation & loneliness

– need for communication/stimulation– chance meetings -- serendipity of ideas– loss of group/teamwork skills– danger of becoming “terminal”

interruptions & focus lack of support staff to help, answer ?s supervision and ability to have 1:1 unclear that many people want it…

they simply need the contact with people


A People Model: Who wants to be in Cyberspace?

Spock

formal(in writing)

Self-control

informal(verbal)

Sally Field

Souter Evangelism Swaggert

Analyticals.. being right, detailed

analretentives

Drivers…results orient.

megalo-maniacs

Amiables…consensusbuilders

spinelesswimps

Expressives...want recognition, need contact

psychotics

Managing Interpersonal Relationships(MIR)

2D Model

--------------chat----------------

emailbroadcast- push

Intensity

Documents

CIO Congress Information Technologies that will drive Enterprise Change Forbes/Gartner CIO Congress 14 June 1998 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corp