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Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 London, Thursday 29 November

Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine

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Page 1: Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine

Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012London, Thursday 29 November

Page 2: Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine

Norske Skog in brief

• Publication paper producer• Newsprint – capacity 2.3 mill. tonnes• Magazine – capacity 1.3 mill. tonnes

• Significant footprint • Europe – capacity 2.6 mill. tonnes• Australasia – 0.7 mill. tonnes

• 2011 revenues NOK 19 bn., EBITDA NOK 1.5 bn.

• 4 000 employees

• Listed in Norway• Market capitalization  NOK 0.7 bn.

• Net debt NOK 6.3 bn.

Page 3: Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine

Norske Skog in global context

Top global publication paper companies

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

UPM (FIN)AbitibiBowater (US)

Stora Enso (FIN)Norske Skog (NOR)Nippon Paper (JAP)

WhiteBirch (US)Oji Paper (JAP)Holmen (SWE)NewPage (US)

SCA (SWE)Sappi (SA)

Catalyst (CAN)Burgo (ITA)

Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper

Mill. tonnes

Top 5 share of capacity

Grade North America Europe

Newsprint 80% 60%

Uncoated Mag 80% 80%

Coated Mag 85% 70%

3

RISI 2011, Norske Skog

Page 4: Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine

Two business systems – Europe and Australasia

Saugbrugs (Norway)

Skogn (Norway)

Bruck (Austria)Walsum (Germany)

Golbey (France)

Singburi (Thailand)

MNI (Malaysia – 34 %)

Boyer (Australia)Tasman (New Zealand)

Albury (Australia)

Pisa (Brazil)

4

Page 5: Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine

5

Revenue and EBITDA contribution by segment

Revenue

Magazine40%

Newsprint Europe27%

Newsprintoutside Europe

33%

Magazine21%

Newsprint Europe22%

Newsprintoutside Europe

57%

EBITDA

3Q12

Page 6: Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine

6

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12

NOK mill.

Development in EBITDA

• Relatively stable through the year• Despite weak markets

• Decline from second half last year• Euro crisis and muted seasonal effect 

Adjusted for income related to pensions and reversal of liability in 2010

Page 7: Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine

7

NOK mill.

‐400

‐300

‐200

‐100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12

• Improvement through the year• Group operating on cash flow basis

• Active working capital management

Development in cash flow

CF from operations before net financial items

Page 8: Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine

8

Capex modest despite development projects 

• Capex 2012 below NOK 500 mill. • Level since 2010

• Capex 2013 NOK 600 mill.• Boyer conversion

• Saugbrugs energy efficiency project

• Mature industry• Capex remaining well below depreciation

NOK mill.

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

Page 9: Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine

9

Publication paper prices stable

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

EUR/tonne

Newsprint, Germany 45g LWC, Germany 60g SC, Germany 56g

RISI, German and US East Coast prices

• European reference prices• Newsprint and Magazine prices flat into October

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

EUR/tonne

Newsprint Germany US East Coast

• US newsprint prices • Flat in USD, above European level in EUR

Page 10: Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine

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Weak demand development

EURO‐GRAPH (YTD Oct 2012), PPPC (YTD Sep 2012)

‐3 %

‐9 %

0 %

‐1 %

2 %

‐12 %

‐2 %

World WesternEurope

EasternEurope

NorthAmerica

Asia Oceania LatinAmerica

Newsprint

1 %

‐9 %

2 %

‐11 %

‐3 %

‐7 %

‐6 %

World WesternEurope

EasternEurope

NorthAmerica

As ia Oceania LatinAmerica

Magazine

Page 11: Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine

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Group cost categories and relative size

• ¾ variable costs, ¼ fixed costs

• Variable costs predominantly energy and fibre

• ⅔ of energy costs contracted, ⅓ spot exposure

• Fibre sourced mainly through wood and recovered paper

• ⅔ virgin fibre, ⅓ recycled 

Energy 22%

Labour17%

Chemicals, fillers, etc.10%

Distribution10%

Other fixed9%

Pulp4%

Other direct4%

Wood13%

Recovered paper 12%

Page 12: Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine

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• SG&A expenses at lower level• Remaining just above NOK 120 per tonne • Despite lower production

Fixed costs coming down

Adjusted for provisions

• Fixed costs noticeably reduced• Cost initiatives and less capacity• Quarterly level down by NOK 200 mill. last 

two years

Quarterly fixed costs

800

850

900

950

1 000

1 050

1 100

1 150

1 200

3Q 4Q 1Q2011

2Q  3Q  4Q   1Q2012

2Q    3Q     

NOK mill.SG&A expenses per tonne

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

3Q 4Q 1Q2011

2Q  3Q   4Q   1Q2012

2Q    3Q    

NOK/ton

Page 13: Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine

Trough cycle margins

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

%

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

NOK mill.

EBITDA EBITDA margin

Average

Norske Skog development in EBITDA and margin

Page 14: Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine

Trough cycle operating environment

60

70

80

90

100

110

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

Demand Supply

2006 = 100

Financial crisisEuro crisis

• Cyclical decline – crisis related• Amplifying underlying structural decline

• Magazine (1‐2%), Newsprint (3‐4%)

Development in European S/D for publication paper

• Industry adapting with capacity cuts• Securing stable prices

Page 15: Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine

Newsprint demand strongly cyclical

IMF, PPPC, Norske Skog

5

6

7

8

9

10

199219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

12E

2013

E20

14E

2015

E20

16E

2017

E

Western EuropeMill. tonnes

‐15

‐10

‐5

0

5

10

%

Newsprint demand Real GDP growth Change in Newsprint demand

Page 16: Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine

Leverage ratio

3

4

5

6

7

3Q 4Q 1Q2011

2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q2012

2Q 3Q

Ratio

16

Net debt reduced by NOK 598 mill.• YTD reduction NOK 1.6 bn. to NOK 6.3 bn.

• Significantly down in two year period from NOK 9 bn.

Debt coming down, approaching target levels

Net interest‐bearing debt

5

6

7

8

9

10

3Q 4Q 1Q2011

2Q  3Q  4Q  1Q2012

2Q   3Q    

NOK bn.

Leverage ratio lower• Approaching target levels below 4

Net interest‐bearing debt / EBITDA

Covenant level

Page 17: Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine

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Maturity profile

‐0.9 ‐0.9 ‐1.0 ‐1.1

1.0

‐2.9

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

NOK bn. Cash RCF Bank Bonds

1.1

As of Sep 2012

Page 18: Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine

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• Improve margins• Active capacity management

• Temporary adaptations and permanent closures/conversions

• Continued cost reductions• Fixed cost and energy efficiency measures

• Further identification and sale of unrelated assets

• Reduction of net debt• Cash flow from operations• Sale proceeds and bond buy‐backs

Management tasks

Page 19: Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine

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EBITDA stabilized in adverse macro environment 

Trailing twelve month (TTM) reported EBITDA

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2Q083Q

084Q

081Q

092Q

093Q

094Q

091Q

102Q

103Q

104Q

101Q

112Q

113Q

114Q

111Q

122Q

123Q

12NOK mill.

Page 20: Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine

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Net debt significantly reduced 

0

5

10

15

20

2Q083Q

084Q

081Q

092Q

093Q

094Q

091Q

102Q

103Q

104Q

101Q

112Q

113Q

114Q

111Q

122Q

123Q

12NOK bn.

Net debt Market capitalization

Page 21: Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012 · Oji Paper (JAP) Holmen (SWE) NewPage (US) SCA (SWE) Sappi (SA) Catalyst (CAN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine