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Citi’s European Credit Conference 2012London, Thursday 29 November
Norske Skog in brief
• Publication paper producer• Newsprint – capacity 2.3 mill. tonnes• Magazine – capacity 1.3 mill. tonnes
• Significant footprint • Europe – capacity 2.6 mill. tonnes• Australasia – 0.7 mill. tonnes
• 2011 revenues NOK 19 bn., EBITDA NOK 1.5 bn.
• 4 000 employees
• Listed in Norway• Market capitalization NOK 0.7 bn.
• Net debt NOK 6.3 bn.
Norske Skog in global context
Top global publication paper companies
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
UPM (FIN)AbitibiBowater (US)
Stora Enso (FIN)Norske Skog (NOR)Nippon Paper (JAP)
WhiteBirch (US)Oji Paper (JAP)Holmen (SWE)NewPage (US)
SCA (SWE)Sappi (SA)
Catalyst (CAN)Burgo (ITA)
Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper
Mill. tonnes
Top 5 share of capacity
Grade North America Europe
Newsprint 80% 60%
Uncoated Mag 80% 80%
Coated Mag 85% 70%
3
RISI 2011, Norske Skog
Two business systems – Europe and Australasia
Saugbrugs (Norway)
Skogn (Norway)
Bruck (Austria)Walsum (Germany)
Golbey (France)
Singburi (Thailand)
MNI (Malaysia – 34 %)
Boyer (Australia)Tasman (New Zealand)
Albury (Australia)
Pisa (Brazil)
4
5
Revenue and EBITDA contribution by segment
Revenue
Magazine40%
Newsprint Europe27%
Newsprintoutside Europe
33%
Magazine21%
Newsprint Europe22%
Newsprintoutside Europe
57%
EBITDA
3Q12
6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12
NOK mill.
Development in EBITDA
• Relatively stable through the year• Despite weak markets
• Decline from second half last year• Euro crisis and muted seasonal effect
Adjusted for income related to pensions and reversal of liability in 2010
7
NOK mill.
‐400
‐300
‐200
‐100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12
• Improvement through the year• Group operating on cash flow basis
• Active working capital management
Development in cash flow
CF from operations before net financial items
8
Capex modest despite development projects
• Capex 2012 below NOK 500 mill. • Level since 2010
• Capex 2013 NOK 600 mill.• Boyer conversion
• Saugbrugs energy efficiency project
• Mature industry• Capex remaining well below depreciation
NOK mill.
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E
9
Publication paper prices stable
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
EUR/tonne
Newsprint, Germany 45g LWC, Germany 60g SC, Germany 56g
RISI, German and US East Coast prices
• European reference prices• Newsprint and Magazine prices flat into October
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
EUR/tonne
Newsprint Germany US East Coast
• US newsprint prices • Flat in USD, above European level in EUR
10
Weak demand development
EURO‐GRAPH (YTD Oct 2012), PPPC (YTD Sep 2012)
‐3 %
‐9 %
0 %
‐1 %
2 %
‐12 %
‐2 %
World WesternEurope
EasternEurope
NorthAmerica
Asia Oceania LatinAmerica
Newsprint
1 %
‐9 %
2 %
‐11 %
‐3 %
‐7 %
‐6 %
World WesternEurope
EasternEurope
NorthAmerica
As ia Oceania LatinAmerica
Magazine
11
Group cost categories and relative size
• ¾ variable costs, ¼ fixed costs
• Variable costs predominantly energy and fibre
• ⅔ of energy costs contracted, ⅓ spot exposure
• Fibre sourced mainly through wood and recovered paper
• ⅔ virgin fibre, ⅓ recycled
Energy 22%
Labour17%
Chemicals, fillers, etc.10%
Distribution10%
Other fixed9%
Pulp4%
Other direct4%
Wood13%
Recovered paper 12%
12
• SG&A expenses at lower level• Remaining just above NOK 120 per tonne • Despite lower production
Fixed costs coming down
Adjusted for provisions
• Fixed costs noticeably reduced• Cost initiatives and less capacity• Quarterly level down by NOK 200 mill. last
two years
Quarterly fixed costs
800
850
900
950
1 000
1 050
1 100
1 150
1 200
3Q 4Q 1Q2011
2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q2012
2Q 3Q
NOK mill.SG&A expenses per tonne
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
3Q 4Q 1Q2011
2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q2012
2Q 3Q
NOK/ton
Trough cycle margins
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
%
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
NOK mill.
EBITDA EBITDA margin
Average
Norske Skog development in EBITDA and margin
Trough cycle operating environment
60
70
80
90
100
110
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E
Demand Supply
2006 = 100
Financial crisisEuro crisis
• Cyclical decline – crisis related• Amplifying underlying structural decline
• Magazine (1‐2%), Newsprint (3‐4%)
Development in European S/D for publication paper
• Industry adapting with capacity cuts• Securing stable prices
Newsprint demand strongly cyclical
IMF, PPPC, Norske Skog
5
6
7
8
9
10
199219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
12E
2013
E20
14E
2015
E20
16E
2017
E
Western EuropeMill. tonnes
‐15
‐10
‐5
0
5
10
%
Newsprint demand Real GDP growth Change in Newsprint demand
Leverage ratio
3
4
5
6
7
3Q 4Q 1Q2011
2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q2012
2Q 3Q
Ratio
16
Net debt reduced by NOK 598 mill.• YTD reduction NOK 1.6 bn. to NOK 6.3 bn.
• Significantly down in two year period from NOK 9 bn.
Debt coming down, approaching target levels
Net interest‐bearing debt
5
6
7
8
9
10
3Q 4Q 1Q2011
2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q2012
2Q 3Q
NOK bn.
Leverage ratio lower• Approaching target levels below 4
Net interest‐bearing debt / EBITDA
Covenant level
17
Maturity profile
‐0.9 ‐0.9 ‐1.0 ‐1.1
1.0
‐2.9
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
NOK bn. Cash RCF Bank Bonds
1.1
As of Sep 2012
18
• Improve margins• Active capacity management
• Temporary adaptations and permanent closures/conversions
• Continued cost reductions• Fixed cost and energy efficiency measures
• Further identification and sale of unrelated assets
• Reduction of net debt• Cash flow from operations• Sale proceeds and bond buy‐backs
Management tasks
19
EBITDA stabilized in adverse macro environment
Trailing twelve month (TTM) reported EBITDA
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
2Q083Q
084Q
081Q
092Q
093Q
094Q
091Q
102Q
103Q
104Q
101Q
112Q
113Q
114Q
111Q
122Q
123Q
12NOK mill.
20
Net debt significantly reduced
0
5
10
15
20
2Q083Q
084Q
081Q
092Q
093Q
094Q
091Q
102Q
103Q
104Q
101Q
112Q
113Q
114Q
111Q
122Q
123Q
12NOK bn.
Net debt Market capitalization