Niger Delta Development Forum (NDDF)

“Collaborative Efforts for Stimulating Investments & Inclusive Economic Growth in the Niger Delta”Asaba, 17th – 18th November 2015

Funding & Investment Opportunities for Economic Infrastructure & Diversification:

“Cities of Refuge”

A PresentationBy

Simon GusahDevelopment PlannerUrban Base Consulting

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Introduction:

Presentation StructureNDDF 2015:>An Overview of Current Trends of Major Sectors

>What are the current clusters of growth?

>What’s been growing & why?

>Challenges and Opportunities of Infrastructure

>State of Infrastructure and Linkages to

Opportunities

>Investors

>Where are the potential growth cities?

Presentation:1. Introduction

Background Context

2. Problem/Opportunity StatementThe Big Picture – Key Drivers

3. Niger Delta UrbanisationThe Niger Delta Region: An Urban Future

4. “Cities of Refuge”Nigeria’s Urbanisation Models

5. Principles & RecommendationsFor Government, for PIND & Partners

6. Conclusions & Next steps

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Introduction:

The Brief

NDDF 2015 Background:Recent Elections, new Governments,

a chance to influence decision-makers

Exploring Public-Private Partnerships

Seeking tangible Policy Inputs, not a restatement of problems

Overview of Major Trends

Challenges and Opportunities of Infrastructure

NDDF Vision:

“All persons that are economically active are able to generate income

and employment unhindered from within and outside the market

system”URBAN BASE

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Introduction:

Presentation Overview

NDDF 2015 Theme:

“Collaborative Efforts (i.e. Partnerships)

For Stimulating Investments and

Inclusive Economic Development(i.e. whilst Reducing inequality)

In the Niger Delta”

Presentation Topic: (modified)

“Funding & Investment Opportunities for

Economic Infrastructure & Diversification:

Cities of Refuge”

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Introduction:

“Cities of Refuge”Conclusion

Key Take-Aways:• The Niger Delta’s Future is Urban,71%

Urban by 2050 (UN DESA), of +100m

• The Niger Delta Region should seek Economic Autonomy: Set it’s own terms.

• Inclusive Economic Growth means Reducing Inequality whilst Growing

• State Governors are the Key to ‘Unlock’ the Niger Delta’s Economy

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Problem/Opportunity Statement:

The Population of Nigeria Doubles Every 25 Years

YEAR Population Median Age Rural/Urban

1965 50, 238,570 18.9 80-20%

1990 95,617,350 17.5 65-35%

2015 183,523,432 17.7 48-52%

2040 350,720,062 19.8 34-66%

2050 440,355,062 21.4 29-71%

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1965 1990 2015 2040

500m

400m

300m

200m

100m

Rural Population

Urban Population

Data Source: UN Department of Economic & Social Affairs, Population Division – World Population Prospects, 2012 Revision (Medium Fertility Variant) http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/theme/trends/index.shtml

+440mBy 2050

BRACED 2011

BAYELSAYenagoa

1,976,000<100k

RIVERSP-H’court

6,026,7371-2m

AK IBOMUyo

4,523,547500k-1m

C-RIVERSCalabar

3,353,766250-500k

EDOBenin

3,748,3571-2m

DELTAAsaba

4,767,451100-250k

Data Sources:1. Base Map – Max Lock Centre, University of

Westminster (2011) https://www.westminster.ac.uk/max-lock-centre

2. State Populations Projected from 2006 Census @ 3% growth rate http://www.population.gov.ng/index.php/state-population

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To Lagos

To Abuja/North

Niger Delta Urbanisation:

‘Lagos’ or ‘Abuja’ Urban Model?LAGOS: Organic, Chaotic, Prosperous,

Inclusive?

ABUJA: Planned, Orderly, Expensive

Unsustainable?

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Niger Delta Urbanisation:

The Case of ‘Greater Port Harcourt City’A Grand Vision…. A Conflicted City….

The Old City

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The ‘Waterside’ Slums

PHED DisCo Overview:• Serves 4 States (Rivers, Bayelsa, Akwa-Ibom, Cross-Rivers)

• Receives 6.5% of country-wide generation

• One of 3 DisCos in Niger Delta Region (+ Benin & Enugu)

Issues, Challenges, Opportunities:• ‘The consumer/DisCo commercial relationship is

particularly problematic; consumers are either unable or unwilling to pay their bills to DisCos, and/or DisCos do not have the capacity to collect effectively.’

(PIND/NDPI Niger Delta Electricity Scoping Study, 2015, pg. 42)

• “….the only company that has successfully attracted foreign investors….was able to secure a degree of international financing was by negotiating with NERC to receive a higher tariff on its PPA by having an “open book” relationship with NERC.” (pg. 37)

• “….assume 20 percent technical losses, then collection rate would have to increase from the current 52 percent to 90 percent for PHED to make a small 176,545 Naira ($1069 USD) profit....profitability becomes material only starting 93 percent collection rate, where PHED would have earned 71 million Naira ($432,000 USD).” (pg. 42)

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Niger Delta Urbanisation:

Port Harcourt Electricity Distribution (DisCo)

40%

10%

50%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Installed Forced Outages Planned Outages Available

MWh

Schedule

outages

generally for

maintenance

Source: Parsons Brinkerhoff 2012, NERC 2014, calculations

Installed versus Available Capacity in Nigeria in 2014

Cities as Economic Drivers

• 71% of Nigerians will live in urban areas by 2050

• Jobs & economic activity will be clustered in towns & cities

• The rural-urban shift is happening – let’s embrace it

• City markets drive national economies

Cities as Economic Infrastructure Hubs

• Target economic infrastructure at cities; ‘more bang for buck’

• If trends hold ND region will be +100m by 2050, +70m urban

• Focus infrastructure on cities and their economic corridors

• Easier to reach urban populations: health, education

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“Cities of Refuge”:

Niger Delta Cities as Investment Hubs

Urban:

• Jobs, livelihoods & services

• Challenges: Affordable Housing, Transport, Power

• Access to serviced land for business, industry

• Resilient, inclusive approaches to governance needed

Rural

• Agro-production & food

• Challenges: Haulage, Services, Information

• Need for land partnerships with agro-investors

• Resilient, inclusive approaches to governance needed

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“Cities of Refuge”:

The Urban-Rural Continuum

Policy in Practice:

• If policy is impractical, people will side-step/ignore it

• Begin policy-planning with inclusiveness, not after-thought

• Design policy around local, working models: i.e. Autonomous housing

Actionable Ideas:

• Catch people doing something right

• Every long-term plan must have a plausible step-changes process

• Use the inherent dynamism of the ‘market’: change what you can, work with what you can’t

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Principles & Recommendations:

Policy vs Politics

• Land Use Act vests all lands under the State GovernorsWithin the constraints of LUA, Governors can side-step need for

constitutional change on land reform

• As Chief Executives, set the tone of governance

Governors are positioned to be the greatest opportunity or challenge

• Governors as Facilitators-in-Chief

‘Learning from Lagos’: Governor/government can’t do everything

• Need for longer-term vision

The 4/8-year political cycle is too short for infrastructure investment plan

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Principles & Recommendations:

Leadership: The Role of Governors

For Government:

• Census 2016: a key opportunity

• Land Reform: Within LUA 1978

• “Cities of Refuge”: Urban-led

• Lead, Follow, or out of the way!

• Economic Autonomy

For PIND & Partners:

• Census 2016: Advocacy

• Pilots & Experimentation

• Bridge Urban-Rural Divide

• Leadership Development

• Promote Niger Delta ‘Brand’

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Conclusions & Next steps:

Niger Delta Region 2050

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Thanks for your attention

Niger Delta Region 2050: “Cities of Refuge”

Simon Gusah17th November, 2015

Simon.gusah@urbanbaseconsulting.com+234 81 55555 260